Presentation by Gena Gibson, senior consultant at Ricardo-AEA, to a Chinese transport ministry delegation. There is no silver bullet to achieve sustainable low-carbon transport - a range of policies and measures must be used. This presentation gives an overview of Ricardo-AEA's sustainable transport model (SULTAN) and the possible policy frameworks that could be used to reduce transport GHG emissions.

1. Ricardo-AEA
© Ricardo-AEA Ltd
www.ricardo-aea.com
Gena Gibson – senior consultant
A long-term policy framework for low-carbon transport
低碳交通的长期政策框架

2. © Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence2
Cutting transport emissions in Europe
欧洲减排政策
Policy options
• Reduce the GHG intensity of fuels
• Tighten car CO2 emission standards
• Introduce CO2 targets for vans and
heavy duty vehicles
• Increase fuel taxes
• “Polluter pays”
• Teach efficient driving techniques
• Reduce speed limits
• Spatial planning measures
具体政策
• 降低燃料对温室气体的排放
• 提高汽车尾气二氧化碳排放标准
• 对货车及重型车辆推广二氧化碳排放额
目标
• 提高燃料税额
• “污染责任承包”
• 培训减排驾驶技巧
• 降低公路限速
• 有效计划空间利用
A long-term policy framework for low-carbon transport
低碳交通的长期政策框架

3. © Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence3
Ricardo-AEA Modelling
减排方法
Policy scenario
GHG emissions
Co-benefits
Costs
SULTAN scenario analysis tool
Transport modes
(7 passenger, 6 freight)
All major modes of transport covered
Powertrain technologies
All major current and future options for vehicle
drivetrains
Energy carriers / fuels
Each powertrain technology can use up to 3
Behavioural & operational
Vehicle technologies
•Engine technology
• Non-engine technology
•Electric and hybrid technology
• Biofuels
• Hydrogen fuel cells
• Infrastructure & spatial
planning
• Intelligent transport systems
• Speed & traffic management
• Shift to more efficient
vehicles
日常运作
车辆技术
•引擎技术
•非引擎技术
•电力及混动技术
•生物燃料
•氢气燃料电池
•有效计划基础设施与空间
•智能化交通系统
•速度与车流管理
•向低排放车辆转型

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Results from scenario analysis
实际案例分析
百万吨二氧化碳等量温室气体
没有政策控制的二氧
化碳总排放

5. © Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence5
Results from scenario analysis
实际案例分析
百万吨二氧化碳等量温室气体
Reduction of fuel GHG
Vehicle efficiency
Demand efficiency
减少燃料产生的温室气体
减少车辆产生的温室气体
排放限额交易利益驱使
(有效需求)

6. © Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence6
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
PJ
Total energy supplied from biofuels by energy carrier (Sum All), V2-b
LNG
Marine Fuels
Kerosene
CNG
LPG
Hydrogen
Electricity
Diesel
Gasoline
BAU-a total
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
PJ
Total energy supplied from biofuels by energy carrier (Sum All), V5-b
LNG
Marine Fuels
Kerosene
CNG
LPG
Hydrogen
Electricity
Diesel
Gasoline
BAU-a total
Weaker/stronger vehicle
efficiency standards could
mean under/over achieving
targets by up to 100 MtCO2
Results from scenario analysis
实际案例分析

7. © Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence7
Marginal abatement cost curves
边际减排成本线
Cost per ton
CO2 reduction
减少每吨二氧
化碳的成本
0
Annual CO2 reduction
年度二氧化碳减排
Negative cost
负成本
Low cost
低成本
High cost
高成本
• Analyse costs and emission
reductions of different packages
of measures
• Analyse interaction between
different options
• Prioritize options in order of cost
effectiveness
• 分析不同政策的减排量与相关成本
• 分析不同政策之间的相互联系
• 根据性价比排列政策效率

8. © Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence8
UK road transport
英国道路交通
Used to develop UK’s Climate Change Act
英国《气候变化法案》已实施减排措施
混合动力
车辆
电动车辆
生物燃料

9. © Ricardo-AEA Ltd
www.ricardo-aea.com
T:
E:
W:
+44 (0)1235 753526
Gena.Gibson@ricardo-aea.com
www.ricardo-aea.com
Gena Gibson
Senior Consultant – Sustainable Transport