Nielsen 2012 extension_prog_dev

Georgia Family Statistics:
Context for FACS Program Development

Robert B. Nielsen
Department of Housing & Consumer Economics
Housing and Demographic Research Center

Extension FACS Program Development Conference
Athens, GA
October 2, 2012

Outline
1. Families’ current social and economic context
 a.k.a. Death by 1,000 Slides
2. A quick demographic snapshot of Georgia
 Including selected statistics on each issue area
3. Challenges and opportunities ahead
 As reported in situation statements, logic
models, or trend statements
4. Conversation leading into the panel session

2
Prepared by Robert B. Nielsen, Ph.D.

Death by 1,000 slides

1. FAMILIES’ CURRENT SOCIAL AND
ECONOMIC CONTEXT

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My perspective…
Influential factors for families this century:
 Macro and microeconomic challenges
– A two-recession decade included the Great Recession; an
unprecedented housing crisis; poverty rates not seen since 1960s
 Increasing diversity
– Increasingly multicultural society; “minority” births now majority
 Terrorism, wars, and conflict
– From 9/11 to the longest war in U.S. history to cultural conflicts
 Rapid technological changes
– Influences how consumers and families communicate, work, learn,
recreate, and consume (perhaps a panel conversation)
 Political changes
– Distrust of large institutions; cycles of optimism and pessimism;
varying levels of excitement about new voters
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My perspective II…
 Like most here, I view consumers and families
from an ecological perspective.
 Individual consumers and families are
influenced by—but also influence—the
persons, processes, contexts, and time in
which they interact in their social, political,
economic, and physical environments.
 Still, where else would a family economist
start but with income?
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$45,973
GA

Title

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Income this Century
Median Household Income 2000 to 2011: U.S. and Georgia
$60,000
$54,841
$50,054
$50,000

$45,973
$40,000
$41,901
$30,000

$20,000

$10,000

$0
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Source: Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States (P60-243); All values expressed in 2011 dollars

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By Your Own Bootstraps: 2010

 The percentage of working-age adults who live
in poverty was the highest its been since 1966
(13.7%)
 The percentage of people who live in the
suburbs who are poor was at the highest level
since 1967 (11.8%)
 If anyone can be expected to “pull themselves
up by their own bootstraps” its these groups
of Americans. Yet, they’re falling behind.
10

Bishaw, A. (2011). Poverty 2009
and 2010. ACS Brief ACSBR/10-
01. Available at
http://www.census.gov/prod/2 12
011pubs/acsbr10-01.pdf

7 Lowest and Highest Poverty Rates: 2010

Poverty Rate Median Household Income
Fayette 6.7% $79,276
Forsyth (FACS) 7.2% $81,629
Oconee (FACS) 8.2% $76,298
Cherokee 8.6% $63,520
Columbia 8.8% $64,435
Paulding 8.8% $61,496
Harris 9.4% $62,264
Clarke (FACS) 33.3% $34,000
Bulloch 34.3% $31,943
Dougherty (FACS) 35.1% $31,200
Clay 35.7% $27,080
Atkinson 36.3% $28,579
Calhoun 36.8% $28,618
Stewart (FACS) 38.1% $26,659
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Small Area Estimates Branch
Release date: 11.2011
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How Bad Is It for Families with Kids?

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Family Budget Shares

Source: USDA Center for Nutrition Policy and Promotion, http://www.cnpp.usda.gov/Publications/CRC/crc2011.pdf

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Food Insecurity
GA
17.4%

GA
6.4%

Source: USDA Economic Research Service, http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/err-economic-research-report/err141.aspx

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59.6% GA

53.2% GA

31.8% GA

19.2% GA

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Nevada

Arizona, Florida
Georgia: 12.3, 3.4

NC MI, AL S. Carolina
US 2.6

US 10.2

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Retrieved from http://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-07.pdf

Just when you thought things were OK

Let’s say the median wealth family has
 avoided poverty,
 avoided two-adult simultaneous unemployment,
 survived a recession (or two),
 enough (safe) food to eat,
 retained medical care access,
 not become unwilling landlords,
 not had to double-up,
 and managed not to hit one another while arguing.
It’s all good, right?

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Absence of hardship doesn’t equal wellness

 A few estimates from the Federal Reserve’s
most recent Survey of Consumer Finances:

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Source: Federal Reserve 2010 SCF Chartbook, http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/scf/files/2010_SCF_Chartbook.pdf
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Source: Federal Reserve 2010 SCF Chartbook, http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/scf/files/2010_SCF_Chartbook.pdf
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Source: Federal Reserve 2012 SCF Bulletin, http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2012/pdf/scf12.pdf


 The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
(our newest regulatory agency) is focusing its
educational efforts on
– mortgages,
– credit cards, and
– student loans.

 First a look…then the question, “Why?”

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Delinquincies

Source: New York Office of the Federal Reserve http://www.newyorkfed.org/householdcredit/
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h

h

h


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“Who is to blame?”


So I find myself asking…

When can we
shift from SURVIVE
to THRIVE?!
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My tentative answer…

When we stop pining
for how how things
were and start working
toward what could be.
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2. A DEMOGRAPHIC SNAPSHOT OF
GEORGIA THIS CENTURY

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Georgia Population

 Georgia is a populous and growing state
 Population estimates
– 2000 8.1 million 10th in the U.S.
– 2020 10.8 million (est.)
 How about your county?
– This tool offers a population change snapshot.

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Increasingly Diverse Nation
Number
2000 2010 Change
Number Percent Number Percent Percent
Total 281,422 100.0 308,746 100.0 9.7
Non-Hispanic
White 194,553 69.1 196,818 63.7 1.2
Black 33,948 12.1 37,686 12.2 11.0
Asian 10,123 3.6 14,465 4.7 42.9
Islander 354 0.1 482 0.2 36.2
Am. Indian 2,069 0.7 2,247 0.7 8.6
Other 468 0.2 604 0.2 29.1
Two or more 4,602 1.6 5,966 1.9 29.6
Hispanic 35,306 12.5 50,478 16.3 43.0
Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2000 and 2010 decennial censuses); expect slight variations due to rounding
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Increasingly Diverse Society
 Increasingly diverse society
– Mapping two decades of change (Wash Post)
– 2010 Decennial Census (Census Bureau)

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Increasingly Diverse State
Number
2000 2010 Change
(in thousands) Number Percent Number Percent Percent
Total 8,072 100.0 9,480 100.0 17.4
Non-Hispanic
White 5,328 65.1 8,787 59.7 8.6
Black 2,350 28.7 2,950 30.5 25.6
Asian 173 2.1 315 3.2 81.6
Islander 4 0.1 7 0.1 60.1
Am. Indian 22 0.3 32 0.3 47.9
Other 196 2.4 389 4.0 98.1
Two or more 114 1.4 208 2.1 81.7
Hispanic 435 5.3 854 8.8 96.1
Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2000 and 2010 decennial censuses); expect slight variations due to rounding
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Available at http://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-04.pdf

From Center for American Progress
(Yes, they lean left)
Top 10 things to know about Georgia’s demographics and
immigration politics (I share a few)
1. Georgia is at a demographic tipping point
– 1 of 13 states where people of color make up more than 40% of
population.
2. People of color make up a substantial portion of Georgia’s
population
– African Americans make up 31.5% of population
– Hispanics or Latinos 8.8%
3. Georgia has a large racial generation gap
– 73.2% age 60+ are non-Hispanic white
– 46.9% of children are non-Hispanic white
4. Demographic change is reshaping the electorate
– Number of eligible Hispanic voters increased 181%--and they’re
young relative to whites
Available at: http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/race/news/2012/03/02/11191/the-top-10-
things-you-should-know-about-georgias-demographic-changes-and-immigration-politics/
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From Center for American Progress
(Yes, they lean left)
Top 10 things to know about Georgia’s demographics and
immigration politics (I share a few)

5. The state is feeling the effects of H.B. 87, the “papers please” law.
– Economic losses not yet determined, but estimates upward of $1B in
2011 growing season
6. Communities of color contribute to the state’s economy
– Unauthorized immigrants paid $456.3 million in state and local taxes
in 2010
– Purchasing power of Georgia’s Latinos estimated $17 billion
– 32,500 Latino-owned business account for $6B revenue, employ
approximately 36,000
– Asian American-owned businesses increased 72% 2002-2007; GA
second-fastest growing state for Asian American-owned businesses

Available at: http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/race/news/2012/03/02/11191/the-top-10-
things-you-should-know-about-georgias-demographic-changes-and-immigration-politics/
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65.1
%

5.3%

67.5% 32.5%

2.71 2.51

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Changing Household Structure
2000 2010 Change

(in thousands) Number Percent Number Percent Percent
Total household 3,006 100.0 3,586 100.0 19.3
Families 2,112 70.2 2,458 68.5 16.4
With own child <18 1,051 35.0 1,258 32.3 10.1
Married couple 1,549 51.5 1,715 47.8 10.7
With own child <18 733 24.4 757 21.1 3.2
Female head (no 435 14.5 568 15.8 30.5
Husb)
With own child <18 258 8.6 320 8.9 24.2
Average size 3.14 -- 3.17 -- 1.0
Nonfamily households 895 29.8 1,128 31.5 26.0
Living alone 711 23.6 909 25.4 28.0
65 or older 210 7.0 268 7.5 27.5
Average size 2.65 -- 2.63
Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2000 and 2010 decennial censuses); expect slight variations due to rounding -- -0.8
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Changing Household Structure

Available at
http://www.census.gov/prod/cen201
46
0/briefs/c2010br-04.pdf

Largely as reported in Specialists’ Logic Models and Trend Statements

3. OPPORTUNITIES AND
CHALLENGES AHEAD

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I can’t do each area justice and I’m not sure I should try at all…the
experts are in the room…still, it was part of my charge so here are a few
highlights as I see them (and on occasion I’m cross-eyed).

3.1 SELECTED STATISTICS ON EACH
ISSUE AREA

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FACS Base Programs

3.1.1. ECONOMIC WELL-BEING FOR
INDIVIDUAL FAMILIES

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Georgians Will Manage Credit & Debt

Specialist: Michael Rupured
 People with higher credit scores are offered
more favorable loan rates; this saves money
that can be put to other uses.
 Georgia ranks 46th among the states for credit
scores.
– Augusta (710) and Savannah (713) have the
distinction of being in the list of cities with the top
ten worst Vantage scores
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Risk Management and Insurance
Specialist: Joan Koonce
 Deciding what kind and how much insurance an
individual or family needs can be a daunting task.
 With the implementation of the Affordable Care
Act, the health insurance marketplace is
undergoing dramatic changes; all must soon
participate in this complex and expensive
marketplace.
– www.healthcare.gov offers educational insights to
consumers, including timeline of the rollout of new
health insurance provisions

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FACS Base Programs

3.1.2. POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR
INDIVIDUALS, FAMILIES, AND
COMMUNITIES
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In 2010
 Women were 46.7% of the US labor
force, a slightly larger share than at
the start of the recession.
 58.6% of women age 16+ were
employed or looking for work.
 Women were nearly twice as likely as
men to work part time.
 Women were nearly 50% more likely
to work in the public sector than
men; 18.2% of employed women
worked in public sector jobs.
Source: Department of Labor (2011). Women’s Employment During the Recovery. Available at http://www.dol.gov/_sec/media/reports/FemaleLaborForce/FemaleLaborForce.pdf 53

Quality Caregiving for Children & Youth
Specialist: Diane Bales
 Child care has an enormous economic impact on Georgia.
– The child care industry generates about $2.4 billion in gross
receipts each year
– employs more than 61,000 people directly
– Parents with young children earn between $13.6 billion and
$32.7 billion each year because child care is available
 Child care in Georgia offers long-term benefits by
– helping children develop knowledge and skills that will enable
them to be ready for school, be better students, more likely to
complete high school, less likely to be in costly special education
programs, less likely to commit crimes, and more likely to be
productive members of our future workforce.

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Intimate Partner Relationships
Specialist: Ted Futris
 In Georgia:
– Marriage rate continues to decline (10.3 per 1000 total
population in 1990 vs. 6.6 in 2009)
– Nearly half of all marriages in a year are remarriages.
– In 2009, 32% of high school students were in a physical
fight one or more times during the past 12 months; 16%
were hit, slapped, or physically hurt on purpose by their
boyfriend or girlfriend.
– The 2010 teen birth rate was 41.2 per 1,000 15-19 year
old adolescent girls (13th highest).

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Specialist: Don Bower
 Said he’ll be covering his

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Specialist: Sharon Gibson
 Is part of the panel
 Still, my take…preparing youth to envision what
could be if we embrace the future rather than
pine for the past. Teens as planners!

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FACS Base Programs

3.1.3. FOOD SAFETY

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Safety of Locally Grown Produce
Specialist: Judy Harrison
 Georgia ranks 9th in the number of cases of
foodborne disease illnesses
– An estimated $1.2 billion cost in GA
 Local food producers report poor adherence to
hygiene protocols, and 90% of consumers don’t
ask about growing/production practices
 Readings Judy’s statement scared me! 
 By the way, my kids love all that is BAC!

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Preserve and Store Foods Safety
Specialists: Elizabeth Andress & Judy Harrison
 2010 Pew Charitable Trust estimates that a
single case of botulism costs $726K in related
medical services, deaths, lost work, disability.
 The majority of botulism cases in the U.S. are
from home production
 1/3 of home canners ‘adapt and improvise’ in
ways that may be dangerous

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Commercial Food Safety
Specialists: Elizabeth Andress & Judy Harrison
 ServSafe since 1995!
 Georgia has
– over 16,000 inspected foodservice establishments
– an industry that employs over 374,000 people (10% of the employment
in Georgia), generating $15.2 billion in sales (National Restaurant Assn. projections for 2012)
 The benefit? Beyond physical wellness…
– Vibrio vulnificus $3,045,726
– Botulism $726,362
– E. coli O157:H7 $14,838
– Salmonella $9,146
– Campylobacter $8,901
– Listeriosis $1,695,143

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FACS Base Programs

3.1.4. FOOD NUTRITION AND HEALTH

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Decreased Morbidity
Specialist: Connie Crawley
 2011 Georgia adults:
– 28% obese; 62.7% overweight or obese; 24th in US
 2011 Georgia children:
– 38% of high schoolers obese or overweight
 If average BMI reduced by just 5% by 2030
– 7.7% savings in health care cost savings

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FACS Base Programs

3.1.5. HEALTHY, SAFE, AFFORDABLE
HOUSING ENVIRONMENTS

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Safe and Affordable Housing
Specialist: Pamela Turner
 GA housing market is showing signs of recovery;
however, the demand for housing is not yet strong
enough to consume the existing inventory.
 In the current market, individuals and families are
faced with rising costs for electricity, water,
gasoline, food and other necessities while income
has remained stagnant or decreased.
 Tighter mortgage lending and weak consumer
confidence has kept potential home buyers from
taking advantage of historically low interest rates.

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Housing and Demographic Research Center (Dr. Tinsley)

3.1.5. GICH: COMMUNITY HOUSING
INITIATIVE

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Local Housing Assistance
Karen Tinsley
 Georgia Initiative for Community Housing (GICH)
provides support and technical assistance to local
housing efforts
– Improve neighborhoods; revitalize community
 Partnership among HDRC, OVPPSO, Georgia Dept.
of Community Affairs, and the Georgia Municipal
Association. Also, Georgia EMC, Carl Vinson
Institute, and Archway are implementation
partners.
– http://www.fcs.uga.edu/hace/hdrc/docs/GICHannRepor
t2012lowRes%20for%20web.pdf
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If none, I have a slide graveyard we can walk through

4. CONVERSATION LEADING INTO
THE PANEL DISCUSSION.

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The micro- and macroenvironment
Natural/Structured
MACROENVIRONMENT

Societal Systems
MACROENVIRONMENT

MICROENVIRONMENT

Physical Economic Family Political Human
System made

Physical Social

Sociocultural Technological

Biological
Deacon & Firebaugh (1988).
Family Resource Management: Principles and Applications.
Prepared by Sharon Y. Nickols, Ph.D.

Slides not used for the presentation but that might be useful for the
panel question session afterward

GRAVEYARD

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Long-Term Unemployment

Source: Department of Labor via Wall Street Journal,
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405270230381290
4577299982932070176.html
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Weekly Food Expenditures

Source: USDA Economic Research Service, http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/err-economic-research-report/err141.aspx

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Current P60 Report

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On technology…

“Technology changes society by changing our
environment to which we, in turn, adapt. This
change is usually in the material environment, and
the adjustment we make to the changes often
modifies customs and social institutions.
Everywhere there is evidence of the stimulus of
war in developing an unprecedented number of
inventions which are being added to and changing
our material environment. We shall be interested
in seeing how these wartime developments in
applied science will change society in peacetime.”
Ogburn, William F. (1947). How technology changes society. Annals of the American
Academy of Political and Social Science, 249, 81-88.
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