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Asset Allocation and the Business Owner:
                                                 Is Your Wealth Management Strategy
                                                 Ignoring Your Biggest Asset?
                                                 By Christopher G. Didier and Brian L. Beaulieu


                                                 Synopsis
PerSPeCtIve
                                                 Although the outcome is highly individualized, the goal of wealth
A Business Owner Protects His                    management is to design a well balanced portfolio. Recent research has
Wealth Against the Ups and Downs
of the Family Business                           highlighted the need to go beyond the basics by considering alternative
In the summer of 2002, Paul, a business
                                                 investments and tax implications in any asset allocation strategy. But,
owner, reflected on his success running the      for a business owner, the business should be the first consideration of
home-building company founded by his             effective wealth management. While the business may often be ignored,
father in the 1970s. Under Paul’s leadership
                                                 it is crucial for any asset allocation strategy to integrate the business
and ownership, the company was on its way
to becoming one of the largest privately         as one of the owner’s biggest assets. The objective of this paper is to
owned home builders in the country. Paul         provide the business owner, and their financial advisor, with guidance
estimated his net worth at $50 million, with
                                                 and a methodology to do so. This paper is written to the business owner.
more than 90 percent coming from his
share of the company’s value. Paul was also      However, the concepts presented could be easily applied by anyone whose
receiving substantial yearly distributions.      wealth is derived from either a private or a public company.
In the past, he had always reinvested the
                                                 Critical Observations
bulk of the distributions back into the
company, but remembering how hard                • Many business owners do not consider their business assets in the
the last real estate bust had been on his
                                                   context of their overall investment portfolio.
father, Paul asked his Advisor for thoughts
on diversifying his investments. Since Paul      • Many business owners overestimate their personal level of
was committed to continuing to grow
                                                   diversification.
his business and had no desire to sell, his
Advisor suggested that he begin to build a       • Many business owners underestimate their risk exposures.
portfolio outside of the company, funded
with a portion of his yearly distribution.
                                                 • To avoid overexposure to risk, business assets should be considered
                                                   in constructing the asset allocation of any investment portfolio.
In constructing an investment portfolio,
however, it was crucial for Paul to not merely   • There is a method that can be used to easily factor in most
put together a balanced portfolio across
                                                   businesses to the asset allocation decision when constructing an
diversified assets classes, but also to design
a portfolio that would behave differently          investment portfolio.
from that of his home-building company.

                                   (continued)
The Problem: Ignoring Business                            We find all too often that the business
                (continued from previous page)
                                                     Assets in Developing an                                   is ignored in wealth management
Paul’s Advisor reasoned that it would be             Investment Portfolio                                      planning, diminishing the benefits
impossible to protect his wealth from                                                                          of diversification and creating
                                                     The goal of effective wealth
the ups and downs of the business if the
                                                     management is to design a well-                           unnecessary risk to the business
business were not considered.
                                                     balanced portfolio. Although the                          owner’s wealth preservation strategy.
As the home-building industry continued
                                                     process and outcome are highly                            If you are a business owner, it is
to grow and his business prospered, Paul’s
                                                     individual, all wealth-management                         crucial for your asset allocation
investment portfolio remained steady
with good returns, but with much slower              planning begins with such basics as                       strategy to integrate your business as
growth than that of his business. From               your age or life stage, time horizon,                     one of your biggest assets.
time to time, Paul needed to be reminded             risk tolerance, cash needs, and a
by his Advisor just why his portfolio was
                                                                                                               Occasionally, it makes sense not to
                                                     review of your financial assets with                      diversify. Entrepreneurs, for example,
structured the way it was and why he
                                                     the end result being the development                      may be in a wealth-creation mode and
was not getting the same returns that his
business was producing.                              of an appropriate asset allocation                        so focused on growing their business
                                                     strategy. Recent research has                             that they typically concentrate all
Fast-forward six years to 2008. the housing
bubble had burst, and many home builders
                                                     highlighted the need to go beyond                         their assets into their company. They
were filing for bankruptcy. Although Paul’s          traditional financial assets, such as                     nurture the business carefully as it
business may not be worth what is was                stocks and bonds, when assessing an                       grows and hope they can generate
at the peak of the housing boom and                  asset allocation strategy, recognizing                    maximum returns. They usually don’t
perhaps not what it was worth in 2002,               the need to also consider alternative
his company will remain successful in the                                                                      invest outside their company.
                                                     asset classes like real estate, private
long run because Paul has made good
                                                     equity, hedge funds, commodities and                      Established business owners,
business decisions.
                                                     even an individual’s lifetime earnings                    however, typically begin moving
And, since Paul’s investment portfolio was
                                                     potential. While still in the embryonic                   into a wealth-preservation mode at
designed to behave differently than the
home-building industry, it’s riding out the          stages, the implication of taxes in                       some point. They have already built
roiling economic changes with modest but             allocation decisions is being studied                     their companies into sustainable
predictable growth. Paul is grateful that,           as well.1                                                 entities, and they may be interested
with the assistance of his Advisor, he has                                                                     in harvesting some of the wealth they
developed a portfolio that can help protect          It is clear there are many                                have created. Some look to create an
his family’s long-term wealth, regardless of         considerations when developing an                         investment portfolio outside of their
the recent downturns in his business.                allocation for any individual, but                        company because they are concerned
Unfortunately, not every family business             for those whose wealth is primarily                       about the risk of the business while
owner has considered the consequences                derived from a business they own,                         others are simply looking for a place
of betting all their wealth on investments           the business should be the priority.
that are likely to follow the same trends
                                                                                                               to invest their excess cash.
affecting their business. Simply being
balanced and diversified across asset            1
                                                     See:
classes and investments may not be
                                                     Indjic, Drago – “Strategic Asset Allocation with Portfolios of Hedge Funds” AIMA Journal, December 2002.
enough to ensure wealth preservation;
                                                     Idzorek, Thomas M. – “It’s now possible to prove that private equity has a place in a diversified collection of
it has to be effective. effective wealth             assets” Morningstar Advisor, Winter 2008.
management and asset allocation starts               Van Eck Associates et al “Asset Allocation: Consider the Commodities You Already Own” Seeking Alpha,
with understanding the expected market               November 2007.
cycle of your biggest asset, your business.          Ibbotson, Roger G.; Chen, Peng; Milevsky, M.A. and Zhu, Xingnong – “Human Capital, Asset Allocation,
                                                     and Life Insurance,” May 2005. Yale ICF Working Paper No. 05-11.
then you can use that knowledge
to design a balanced and diversified                 Reichenstein, William – “Calculating After-Tax Asset Allocation Is Key to Determining Risk, Returns, and
                                                     Asset Location,” Journal of Financial Planning, July 2007.
investment portfolio that helps protect
                                                     Horan, Stephen M. – “Applying After-Tax Asset Allocation,” The Journal of Wealth Management, Fall 2007.
your family’s wealth against overexposure
                                                     Wilcox, Jarrod; Horvitz, Jeffrey E and diBartolomeo; Dan – Investment Management for Taxable Private
to those same cycles.                                Investors The Research Foundation of CFA Institute 2006.


                                                                         -2-
Overlooking the Elephant                          be difficult to find reasonable data for
                                                          in the Room                                       the business that can be easily
                                                          For many established business owners,             compared. Many privately held
                                                          their business often represents their             companies are highly specialized or
                                                          single greatest asset. And since wealth           are in a niche market, or both. In
                                                          preservation requires balance and                 other cases, businesses might be serving
                                                          diversification, that business must be            an emerging industry. Unlike public
                                                          considered in designing their investment          companies with stringent reporting
                                                          portfolio. It’s the elephant in the room –        requirements, financial data about
                                                          ignored surprisingly often, despite its size.     private, closely held companies may not
                                                                                                            be easily accessible. Even when data is
                                                          John Ward is a Clinical Professor
                                                                                                            readily available it can be extremely time
                                                          and Co-Director of Northwestern
                                                                                                            consuming to model. When asked in a
                                                          University’s Kellogg School of
    Generally, advisors and other                                                                           recent survey why portfolio
                                                          Management Center for Family
    business consultants understand                                                                         construction was becoming more
                                                          Enterprises. He has consulted with a
    the risks associated with a                                                                             difficult, the top three answers given
                                                          number of owners of family businesses
    concentrated asset; in fact,                                                                            by financial advisors were: greater
                                                          and based on his experience says that
    they are often the ones who                                                                             product selection, more time
                                                          “most business owners are concerned
    recommend diversification to the                                                                        consuming and complicated advice
                                                          about the risks within their business
    business owner to begin with.                                                                           topics.2 The response seems to reinforce
                                                          and work to reduce their risk exposure
                                                                                                            the idea that some advisors may not
                                                          through diversification.” However,
                                                                                                            have the time, skill-set or resources to
                                                          Professor Ward also says “it is rare that
                                                                                                            adequately model the business
                                                          an owner considers the performance
                                                                                                            component into asset allocation.
                                                          behavior of their investment portfolio
                                                          relative to their business.”                    2. Illiquidity – Some owners don’t
                                                                                                             regard the business as part of their
                                                          Generally, advisors and other business
                                                                                                             investment portfolio because typically
                                                          consultants understand the risks
                                                                                                             it’s an illiquid asset. Since such
                                                          associated with a concentrated asset;
                                                                                                             businesses are usually not on the sales
                                                          in fact, they are often the ones who
                                                                                                             block, they are not considered by
                                                          recommend diversification to the
                                                                                                             accountants and financial advisors
                                                          business owner to begin with. Why,
                                                                                                             as “marked to market,” that is,
                                                          then, are businesses “not considered or
                                                                                                             they have not been valued for the
                                                          overlooked in business owners’ invest-
                                                                                                             potential amount they would bring
                                                          ment portfolios,” as Professor Ward says?
                                                                                                             on the open market. To owners, and
                                                          Reasons a Business May Be                          those who advise them, the portfolio
                                                          Bypassed in Asset Allocation                       becomes something separate from the
                                                          1. Hard to Compare – Most often,                   business. They regard the portfolio
                                                             financial advisors don’t attempt to             as the place where they invest
                                                             model the business component into               distributions they take from their
                                                             the asset allocation and determine              business, not as something that should
                                                             how its performance relates with other          be complementary to the business.
                                                             assets in the portfolio because it can          The implications can be serious given


2
    Investment Management Consultants Association and Cerulli Associates, Spring 2008


                                                                                    -3-
the current focus on the inclusion         of my business.” (See “The Fear of
The Fear of Losing Control                  of alternative asset classes such as       Losing Control,” in sidebar at left).
                                            private equity, hedge funds and          4. Calling in a Cadre – Some
By nature, business owners are
                                            real estate in many asset allocation        business owners believe they are
reluctant to surrender their
                                            strategies. These non-traditional           achieving portfolio diversification
wealth to someone else, says Sara
                                            asset classes often have their              by hiring several different money
Hamilton, CeO and founder of the
                                            own liquidity risks which, if not           managers to invest their non-
Family Office exchange (FOX). FOX
                                            considered along with illiquidity           business assets. But often, these
provides research, education and
                                            of a business, may unintentionally          money managers are thinking alike
advice to more than 500 members
                                            compound the liquidity problem as           and buying the same or similar
in 22 countries, who represent                                                          assets, which means the owner is
family business owners with                 a whole.
                                                                                        now overexposed to the same
assets ranging from $30 million           3. Familiarity and Control –                  investment risks. Unfortunately,
to several billion dollars.                  Business owners make the major             this approach still ignores the
It comes down to a matter of                 decisions in their businesses.             elephant in the room. If the
control, she says.                           They are accustomed to being in            performance of those investments
                                             control, and they are confident in         has a high correlation with the
“Someone who launches a
                                             their judgments. While confidence          performance of their business, as
business is almost always a driven,
                                             is good, over-confidence can               they often do, the risk exposure to
persistent, insistent person who
                                             lead an owner to underestimate             the business owner may be much
likes being in control,” she says.
                                             the risk in their business and,            more than was anticipated.
“that’s why they don’t go work for
someone else. they think: ‘I know            correspondingly, his or her need
                                                                                     Including Your Business in
how to build furniture. I know               to better balance their portfolio.
                                                                                     Your Asset Allocation Strategy:
how to take care of my clients. I’m          This “control” mindset has further      3 Important Steps
in control of managing business              implications on their portfolio
                                                                                     Despite these obstacles, we have
development.’”                               strategy as well. Since non-business
                                                                                     found it is quite possible to apply
                                             financial investments are beyond
For the same reason, she says,                                                       certain techniques to model most
business owners don’t quite trust
                                             their control, they can be out of
                                                                                     any business into an asset allocation
financial markets; the outcome               their comfort zone and may feel
                                                                                     strategy. The three-step process
is out of their control. “turning            uncharacteristically hesitant. Faced
                                                                                     described below is not an exact
control of their wealth over to              with this, business owners will
                                                                                     science, but it will allow you to better
someone else is a foreign concept.           typically either stick to investments
                                                                                     understand how your investment
Instead, they may reinvest                   they are familiar with, or they may
                                                                                     portfolio relates to your business,
everything they’ve got back into             defer entirely to their financial
                                                                                     which will put you in a better position
the business so there isn’t a lot of         advisor for portfolio strategy and
                                                                                     to manage your risk exposure.
liquidity. It’s the known versus the         construction. Finally, business
unknown,” she observes.                      owners may not feel the need to         1. Create a Business Market Index
the ability to deal with the known           discuss their business with the
                                                                                     Similar to the way indices are
and the imperative to invest only
                                             advisor since the business is already
                                                                                     built for businesses to use for
                                             under control. This ultimately can
in things they can control may                                                       benchmarking and trend purposes,
                                             result in the advisor creating a
explain why so many business-                                                        your company’s data can be analyzed
                                             portfolio of investments without
owning families often invest their                                                   and compared against industry data
                                             any consideration of the business.
non-business assets in real estate,                                                  and macroeconomic indicators. Every
                                             The advisor may even hear the
Hamilton says, citing research
                                             business owner say “You take care       company, large or small, public or
FOX has done on typical asset
                                             of the portfolio and I will take care   private, experiences up and down
allocations.
                                                                                     cycles. Your company’s business cycles
                            (continued)

                                                         -4-
and what influences them can be            your business would be considered
            (continued from previous page)   estimated along with how the sales         non-cyclical and thus will have a
“they feel most comfortable                  rates change over time. By examining       lower correlation to the economy.
putting liquid assets into real              this data you can determine:               But that’s not necessarily true of all
estate versus marketable                                                                service industries. For example, the
                                             • where your company is in the
securities. real estate is tangible,                                                    financial services industry is obviously
                                               business cycle
concrete, it’s under their control,                                                     tied closely to the equities market and
and they’re used to buying real
                                             • which indicators actually lead           likewise the economy.
estate in their business. they’re              your business, and
                                                                                        First, we look at the markets in which
not as trusting of the financial             • where you can expect your company        the business operates and competes,
markets. they like owning physical             to be in 12 to 24 months.                and then we work on creating a
assets.”
Another foreign concept to
business owners and business-                  Example Business Market Analysis
owning families is the idea of                   SALES                                                                  INDICATOR
                                                                                                                                 115
viewing the company not only                     145


as an asset but also one that is
subject to risk from market swings               130                                                                             110

and other factors.
“A business owner never feels his                115                                                                             105

own business is a risky venture,”
Hamilton continues. “Hardly ever                                                                                                 100
                                                 100
do they see risk in what they own
and manage because they’re
                                                  85                                                                             95
totally in control.” For the same                                                                          Company Sales
reason, they may resist taking                                                                             Indicator

advice from someone else, she says.               70                                                                             90
                                                         '99    '00   '01   '02   '03   '04   '05    '06          '07      '08

“Yet almost every financial advisor
I know, when they talk to a
business- owning family, is                  To determine when future sales highs       weighted Business Market Index
definitely talking to them in                and lows may occur, this analysis          (BMI) to reflect the company’s degree
the context of the business                  compares your company revenues with        of involvement in those markets.
and the risks involved in that               a selection of economic indicators.        Let’s say a company’s products or
core business. But the idea of               It’s not enough to simply know sales       services are sold to these markets:
comparing their company against              trends. It is imperative that the future   50 percent of sales go to industrial
other assets whose economic                  sales highs and lows, which affect         markets, 19 percent to law firms,
cycles correlate with that of the            business valuation, are considered         17 percent to accounting firms and
business is just not something               within the context of other assets.        14 percent to “other.” We look for
many business owners have
                                             The type of business drives the            external data to reflect the business-
thought about.”
                                             process. A manufacturing business will     cycle behavior of each identified market.
But perhaps it’s time to consider it,        typically have a higher correlation to     If sufficient company data are available,
she says.                                    the economy, much the same way the         we can actually test the relationships
                                             equities market tends to perform. By       before constructing the BMI. The
                                             contrast, if you operate a law firm or     “other” category would probably be
                                             one that’s tied to the legal industry,     allocated to a general category, such as


                                                               -5-
GDP, if it’s deemed to have some                         indexes we established, we can create a
                                                        cyclicality. If “other” has no discernible               weighted BMI of that company.
                                                        business-cycle relationships, it’s desig-                By examining historical returns and
                                                        nated as a non-cyclical business measure.                volatility of the BMI it is possible to
                                                        This example will apply in many cases,                   model future returns as well as the ups
 Defining Correlation –
                                                        but sometimes a broad sales-market                       and downs, or volatility, of the business.
 In designing an asset allocation                       designation needs to be better defined.                  It won’t be a perfect benchmark, but
 strategy, financial advisors may chart                 In the above example “Industrials” can                   it’s a close approximation – and a far
 how a group of assets correlate, or                    comprise a wide variety of products,                     better option than not considering that
 perform against each other over                        each with different business-cycle                       business at all.
 time. If a portfolio is well-balanced,
                                                        behavior. For instance, the business cycle
 each individual asset class within the                                                                          2. Build a Correlation Matrix
                                                        of the commercial aircraft subset may be
 portfolio can be expected to vary in                                                                            Once the Business Market Index that is
 performance. two assets A and B can                    quite different from that of the power
                                                        generation subset, or that of a metal-                   reflective of a company’s business cycle
 have a correlation that ranges from -1 to
                                                                                                                 is determined, a correlation matrix that
 1. For example, if Asset A is up and Asset             working business, or one that produces
 B is also up, they are said to be positively
                                                                                                                 compares the company’s performance
                                                        a product for the housing industry.
 correlated. If A is up, but B is down, they                                                                     against the performance of other
                                                        Before we can construct a business-cycle                 financial assets is created. This lets the
 are negatively correlated. If they increase
 together in equal amounts, then they                   benchmark for the business, our job is                   owner see which assets are more highly
 have a correlation of +1. If they move in              to find these differences. Then, when                    correlated to the business. For example,
 equal amounts in the opposite direction,               we’ve determined what the end-market                     a correlation matrix for a “Sample
 they have a correlation of -1.                         components should be, we research                        Company,” a national distribution
                                                        relevant data streams. We standardize                    company, is shown in Table 1. From the
                                                        the data so that the market activity                     table you can see that, on a relative basis,
                                                        is expressed in a common unit, most                      International Equity has the highest
                                                        often by indexing each of the series to a                correlation with the Sample Company at
                                                        common base. By applying the weighting                   0.38 while Intermediate Taxable Bonds
                                                        scheme to each of the market component                   has the lowest correlation at -0.40.
tABLe 1

Correlation Matrix           Large Cap   Small Cap   International   Emerging    REITs   High Yield    Intermediate   Cash    Commodities   Hedge Fund    Sample
                               Equity     Equity         Equity       Markets              Bonds      Taxable Bonds                          of Funds    Company
Large Cap Equity               1.00        0.88        0.69           0.61      0.59       0.53           0.18        -0.03     -0.27         0.46        0.37
Small Cap Equity               0.88        1.00        0.62           0.72      0.68       0.59           0.08        -0.04     -0.14         0.53        0.18
International Equity           0.69        0.62        1.00           0.58      0.49       0.42           0.14        -0.12     -0.18         0.38        0.38
Emerging Markets               0.61        0.72        0.58           1.00      0.34       0.50          -0.26        -0.12     -0.14         0.59        0.03
REITs                          0.59        0.68        0.49           0.34      1.00       0.54           0.36        -0.11     -0.22         0.22       -0.02
High Yield Bonds               0.53        0.59        0.42           0.50      0.54       1.00           0.27        -0.05     -0.31         0.25        0.08
Intermediate Taxable Bonds     0.18        0.08        0.14           -0.26     0.36       0.27           1.00        0.19      -0.11        -0.13       -0.40
Cash                          -0.03       -0.04       -0.12           -0.12     -0.11     -0.05           0.19        1.00      -0.01         0.10       -0.14
Commodities                   -0.27       -0.14       -0.18           -0.14     -0.22     -0.31          -0.11        -0.01      1.00         0.12        0.12
Hedge Fund of Funds            0.46        0.53        0.38           0.59      0.22       0.25          -0.13        0.10       0.12         1.00        0.34
Sample Company                 0.37        0.18        0.38           0.03      -0.02      0.08          -0.40        -0.14      0.12         0.34        1.00

                                                                                                                       Intermediate Taxable Bonds has
                                   International Equity has highest                                                         lowest correlation with
                                  correlation with Sample Company                                                             Sample Company


                                                                                -6-
We can then use the correlation matrix        understand how your company behaves
                                    to build an overall asset allocation that’s   relative to other asset classes you can
                                    better structured. To be fully balanced,      balance your risk exposures.
                                    the owner would want to invest more           Some scenarios:
                                    heavily in asset classes with a lower         • A real estate developer would want
                                    correlation to the business and start           a portfolio with a low correlation to
                                    avoiding asset classes that are more            real estate. We’ve observed that many
                                    highly correlated with the business.            business owners choose to diversify by
                                    Put another way, owners and their               building a portfolio of assets they may
                                    advisors would look for assets that have        be more familiar with, such as real
                                    as low a correlation as possible – perhaps      estate or private equity. Unfortunately,
                                    even a negative correlation to their            a large component of most businesses
                                    business. The goal is to make sure the          is already significantly invested in real
It is critical to understand how    owner isn’t overexposed to swings in the        estate – in an office, warehouse or
your business behaves relative      business cycle.                                 manufacturing plant. So diversifying
to your other holdings, or, how     This might suggest that instead of              by adding more of what you are
it correlates with other types of   heavily investing in real estate or a           familiar with may not be diversifying
financial assets.                   portfolio of domestic equities, other           at all.
                                    investments need to be considered.            • If profits of your business get squeezed
                                    These might include traditional as              when commodities, such as energy
                                    well as high-yield bonds; stocks and            and raw materials, are rising, it may
                                    bonds of international and emerging             make sense to include commodities
                                    markets; and alternative investments            in your portfolio. On the other
                                    such as private equity, hedge funds,            hand if you owned a company in the
                                    and commodities like gold, oil and              energy business, you should actually
                                    corn. We realize that some of these             restrict your portfolio managers from
                                    investments may be abhorrent to some            investing in commodities and other
                                    business owners because they may be             sectors, such as emerging markets,
                                    unfamiliar to them, or the return               that may be linked to commodities.
                                    potential may not be what they’re used          Should the commodities continue
                                    to in their business. However, if real          to rise, in either case your exposure
                                    estate or equities suddenly headed down         would be balanced.
                                    in value, inclusion of some or all of these
                                                                                  • It is important to understand what
                                    types of investments should buffer the
                                                                                    sectors are dominating returns in
                                    total portfolio against a meltdown.
                                                                                    the equity markets. In the 1990s,
                                    3. Balance Your Risks                           technology companies comprised
                                    It is critical to understand how your           a substantial part of the S&P 500.
                                    business behaves relative to your other         If you had a tech business whose
                                    holdings, or, how it correlates with other      success was based on selling into that
                                    types of financial assets. That way, you        industry, you may not have gotten
                                    can avoid being overexposed or heavily          the balance you thought by simply
                                    concentrated in assets that mirror your         investing in a broad market equity
                                    company’s business cycle. Once you              fund that benchmarked itself against
                                                                                    the S&P 500.



                                                        -7-
erging Markets

 High Yield
    Bonds                                                                  • Your business and the real estate you              that generated net proceeds of $4.1
                                                                             own are considered to be illiquid                  million in cash. The owner decides to
                                                                             assets. That is to say there is no active          consult with a professional advisor to
                                                                             market in which you could easily and               get some input on how a portfolio of
                                                                             immediately turn the asset into cash.              $5 million (the stock portfolio plus the
                                                                             You will need to balance that lack of              new cash) should be invested.
                                                                             liquidity with more liquid assets in               The owner informs the advisor that he
                                                                             your investment portfolio. So even                 is looking to diversify and invest the
                                                                             if an asset class has a low correlation            money in something that will provide
           POrtFOLIO A 3                                                     with your business, you may need to                a reasonable return. As the business has
                                   REITS
                                                                             limit the amount of that asset class in            been doing very well there is no need
                                                                             your total portfolio in order to balance           for any income from the portfolio so the
           Small Cap Core
                                       5%
                                                                             your overall liquidity risk.                       return can be reinvested.
                                                            Large Cap
                            15%
                                                     40%      Core                                                              Assuming the owner’s financial advisor
                                                                           Bringing it All Together to Better
                                                                           Manage Your Risk Exposure                            has adopted a model focused on
     International     20%                                                                                                      asset allocation, a typical portfolio
            Equity                                                         Every company, large or small, public or
                                                                                                                                recommendation might be a diversified
                                                                           private, experiences up and down cycles.
                                       20%
                                                                                                                                group of asset classes including domestic
                                                                           With careful data collection, these
                                                                                                                                and international equities, some bonds
                     Intermediate Bond                                     cycles can be forecasted fairly accurately
                                                                                                                                and perhaps some real estate. It may
                                                                           to help owners plan and maximize
                                                                                                                                look very similar to Portfolio A.
                                                                           the profits of their businesses. In the
                                                                           same way, that type of knowledge can                 Based on historical data, Portfolio A has
           POrtFOLIO B 4                                                   also help owners plan and increase the               produced a reasonable return and has
                                       High Yield Bonds                    performance of their total portfolios.               not gone down as much as the rest of
                Small Cap Core                                                                                                  the market during bad times. Looks OK
                                       5%                                  Let’s look at an example of how
                                  5%                                                                                            right? Or is it?
       Commodities                                          Intermediate   this might work in practice: Take a
                            10%                       50%                                                                       Upon examining a correlation matrix,
                                                              Bonds        distribution business that is currently
       Emerging                                                            worth $20 million. The owner has                     developed using the company’s BMI,
                      10%
        Markets                                                            total real estate holdings, including                and comparing it to Portfolio A, you
                                                                           his primary residence and a vacation                 would find that most every asset class
                              20%                                          home, of $2.5 million. He has a modest               in the portfolio has a relatively high
                      Cash                                                                                                      correlation with the business. This
                                                                           investment portfolio of individual
                                                                           stocks and mutual funds that he                      means that it is fairly likely that the
                                                                           bought over the years from his broker                portfolio will move, at least directionally,
                                                                           totaling $900,000. The owner recently                in lock-step with the business. When the
                                                                           completed a sale and lease back of the               business underperforms, the portfolio
                                                                           building where his business is located               returns will likely be poor as well.

       3
           Portfolio A is a hypothetical portfolio with an annualized return of 8.05% over the 10 year period 1/1/1999 to 12/31/2007. The maximum one year decline was 25.03% over
           the same period. The indices that were used to construct and back-test this portfolio and corresponding asset class were as follows: S&P 500/Large Cap Core, U.S. Small Cap
           Stocks/Small Cap Core, MSCI EAFE/International Equity, FTSE NAREIT/REITs, LB U.S. Aggregate/Intermediate Bond. This information has been obtained from sources
           we believe to be reliable. We cannot, however, guarantee its accuracy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The stated market indices are
           unmanaged indices used to measure and repeat performance of the market in general. Direct investment in an index is not possible. The investment results depicted herein
           represent historical gross performance with no deduction for management fees or transaction costs. Dividends are assumed to be reinvested.
       4
           Portfolio B is a hypothetical portfolio with an annualized return of 7.83% over the 10 year period 1/1/1999 to 12/31/2007. The maximum one year decline was 5.95% over
           the same period. The indices that were used to construct and back-test this portfolio and corresponding asset class were as follows: S&P 500/Large Cap Core, U.S. Small Cap
           Stocks/Small Cap Core, MSCI EAFE/International Equity, FTSE NAREIT/REITs, LB U.S. Aggregate/Intermediate Bond. This information has been obtained from sources
           we believe to be reliable. We cannot, however, guarantee its accuracy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The stated market indices are
           unmanaged indices used to measure and repeat performance of the market in general. Direct investment in an index is not possible. The investment results depicted herein
           represent historical gross performance with no deduction for management fees or transaction costs. Dividends are assumed to be reinvested.


                                                                                               -8-
From a “wealth preservation” point of         business may not protect your family’s
                                     view, a potentially superior portfolio can    long-term wealth, since the trends that
                                     be constructed utilizing asset classes that   move the value of the portfolio may
                                     have a low or even negative correlation       be similar to the trends that affect the
                                     with the business. For example, most          fortunes of your business. Therefore, it is
                                     of the asset classes that make up             crucial for your asset allocation strategy
                                     Portfolio B have a relatively low or          to integrate your business as one of your
                                     even negative correlation with the            biggest assets. We have provided you
                                     sample company. This portfolio has            with a simple methodology to do so.
                                     a significantly lower probability of          You must also realize that real estate
                                     being down when the business is down          might not necessarily cushion your
                                     relative to Portfolio A. Keeping in           wealth throughout a volatile economic
                                     mind the business asset, this portfolio       cycle. A significant portion of your
                                     also has substantial liquidity to balance     company’s value might already be in real
If your business is one of your
                                     the illiquid business and real estate of      estate, so you may already have enough
biggest assets and it has not been   the owner, just in case the good times        exposure to that asset class. And, as we’ve
adequately considered in your        the business is currently experiencing        recently experienced, real estate values
wealth management strategy,          don’t continue. Finally, both Portfolio       can sag as quickly as they can soar.
perhaps it is time you should        A and Portfolio B have about the same
consider it.                                                                       Lastly, keep in mind liquidity risk. In
                                     return expectation based on historical
                                                                                   your quest to balance your risks it is
                                     performance, while Portfolio B has
                                                                                   important to understand that your
                                     about one third the downside potential,
                                                                                   business and the real estate you own are
                                     or risk, as does Portfolio A.
                                                                                   illiquid. Be sure you have ample liquidity
                                     As this example demonstrates, the extra       in your investment portfolio so that
                                     effort required to bring the business         you can meet any unanticipated cash
                                     into the asset allocation mix can pay-off     needs. This is particularly a concern on
                                     in the form of a more thoughtful asset        the downside of the business cycle when
                                     allocation and a superior investment          credit conditions tighten and liquidity is
                                     portfolio with a definite focus on            at a premium.
                                     wealth preservation.
                                                                                   If your business is one of your biggest
                                     The Bottom Line                               assets and it has not been adequately
                                     John Kenneth Galbraith, considered            considered in your wealth management
                                     by some to be one of America’s most           strategy, perhaps it is time you should
                                     famous economists, said: “One of the          consider it. Visit with your financial
                                     greatest pieces of economic wisdom is to      advisor and have him or her re-
                                     know what you do not know.” Based on          assess your asset allocation. Work to
                                     our experience and that of consultants        understand how your business behaves
                                     like John Ward of Northwestern                relative to your investment portfolio first
                                     University and The Family Office              and make any changes required to ensure
                                     Exchange’s Sarah Hamilton, who spend          they perform differently. After you
                                     their time working with business owners,      have taken this important step toward
                                     many business owners do not know how          preserving your wealth, you can move
                                     the performance of their business relates     on to other important issues that impact
                                     to that of their investment portfolio.        asset allocation, like the need to consider
                                                                                   alternative investments, your lifetime
                                     As we have discussed, an investment           earnings potential and taxes.
                                     portfolio that does not consider your

                                                          -9-
ABOUt tHe AUtHOrS:
                                                                         Christopher G. Didier is Managing Director, Private Asset Management
                                                                         Group with robert W. Baird & Co., headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
                                                                         He holds an MBA from the University of Chicago and is a CFA Charterholder.
                                                                         Along with ed DeFrance and David Klenke, both CPAs and CFAs, he formed a
                                                                         private asset management team that focuses on high-net-worth individuals
                                                                         and families, and family offices. Chris and his team specialize in serving the
                                                                         wealth management needs of current and former CeOs of public and private
                                                                         companies. Chris was named to Worth magazine’s “top 100 Wealth Advisors”
                                                                         in 2007. You can contact Chris at 414-765-7095 or cdidier@rwbaird.com.
                                                                         Brian L. Beaulieu has been an economist with the Institute for trend research
                                                                         in Concord, New Hampshire, since 1982, serving as its executive Director
                                                                         since 1987. He does applied research into business cycle trend analysis and
                                                                         the use of cyclical analysis at a practical business level. Brian has been quoted
                                                                         by the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Barron’s, USA Today, Knight Ridder
                                                                         News Services, Reuters, CBS Radio, The Washington Times, KERA TV, Business
                                                                         News Network TV, and is a regular columnist and contributing economist to
                                                                         national trade associations and publications. He is Chief economist for vistage
                                                                         International and teC, global organizations that comprise more than 14,000
                                                                         CeOs. You can contact Brian at 603-226-9331 or Brian@ecotrends.org.




© All rights reserved. this information cannot be represented or used without the consent of the authors.



                                                                                                            - 10 -
                                                                                                                                              MC-23727 First use: 06/2008

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Asset Allocation and Business Owners - Dec. 2011

  • 1. Asset Allocation and the Business Owner: Is Your Wealth Management Strategy Ignoring Your Biggest Asset? By Christopher G. Didier and Brian L. Beaulieu Synopsis PerSPeCtIve Although the outcome is highly individualized, the goal of wealth A Business Owner Protects His management is to design a well balanced portfolio. Recent research has Wealth Against the Ups and Downs of the Family Business highlighted the need to go beyond the basics by considering alternative In the summer of 2002, Paul, a business investments and tax implications in any asset allocation strategy. But, owner, reflected on his success running the for a business owner, the business should be the first consideration of home-building company founded by his effective wealth management. While the business may often be ignored, father in the 1970s. Under Paul’s leadership it is crucial for any asset allocation strategy to integrate the business and ownership, the company was on its way to becoming one of the largest privately as one of the owner’s biggest assets. The objective of this paper is to owned home builders in the country. Paul provide the business owner, and their financial advisor, with guidance estimated his net worth at $50 million, with and a methodology to do so. This paper is written to the business owner. more than 90 percent coming from his share of the company’s value. Paul was also However, the concepts presented could be easily applied by anyone whose receiving substantial yearly distributions. wealth is derived from either a private or a public company. In the past, he had always reinvested the Critical Observations bulk of the distributions back into the company, but remembering how hard • Many business owners do not consider their business assets in the the last real estate bust had been on his context of their overall investment portfolio. father, Paul asked his Advisor for thoughts on diversifying his investments. Since Paul • Many business owners overestimate their personal level of was committed to continuing to grow diversification. his business and had no desire to sell, his Advisor suggested that he begin to build a • Many business owners underestimate their risk exposures. portfolio outside of the company, funded with a portion of his yearly distribution. • To avoid overexposure to risk, business assets should be considered in constructing the asset allocation of any investment portfolio. In constructing an investment portfolio, however, it was crucial for Paul to not merely • There is a method that can be used to easily factor in most put together a balanced portfolio across businesses to the asset allocation decision when constructing an diversified assets classes, but also to design a portfolio that would behave differently investment portfolio. from that of his home-building company. (continued)
  • 2. The Problem: Ignoring Business We find all too often that the business (continued from previous page) Assets in Developing an is ignored in wealth management Paul’s Advisor reasoned that it would be Investment Portfolio planning, diminishing the benefits impossible to protect his wealth from of diversification and creating The goal of effective wealth the ups and downs of the business if the management is to design a well- unnecessary risk to the business business were not considered. balanced portfolio. Although the owner’s wealth preservation strategy. As the home-building industry continued process and outcome are highly If you are a business owner, it is to grow and his business prospered, Paul’s individual, all wealth-management crucial for your asset allocation investment portfolio remained steady with good returns, but with much slower planning begins with such basics as strategy to integrate your business as growth than that of his business. From your age or life stage, time horizon, one of your biggest assets. time to time, Paul needed to be reminded risk tolerance, cash needs, and a by his Advisor just why his portfolio was Occasionally, it makes sense not to review of your financial assets with diversify. Entrepreneurs, for example, structured the way it was and why he the end result being the development may be in a wealth-creation mode and was not getting the same returns that his business was producing. of an appropriate asset allocation so focused on growing their business strategy. Recent research has that they typically concentrate all Fast-forward six years to 2008. the housing bubble had burst, and many home builders highlighted the need to go beyond their assets into their company. They were filing for bankruptcy. Although Paul’s traditional financial assets, such as nurture the business carefully as it business may not be worth what is was stocks and bonds, when assessing an grows and hope they can generate at the peak of the housing boom and asset allocation strategy, recognizing maximum returns. They usually don’t perhaps not what it was worth in 2002, the need to also consider alternative his company will remain successful in the invest outside their company. asset classes like real estate, private long run because Paul has made good equity, hedge funds, commodities and Established business owners, business decisions. even an individual’s lifetime earnings however, typically begin moving And, since Paul’s investment portfolio was potential. While still in the embryonic into a wealth-preservation mode at designed to behave differently than the home-building industry, it’s riding out the stages, the implication of taxes in some point. They have already built roiling economic changes with modest but allocation decisions is being studied their companies into sustainable predictable growth. Paul is grateful that, as well.1 entities, and they may be interested with the assistance of his Advisor, he has in harvesting some of the wealth they developed a portfolio that can help protect It is clear there are many have created. Some look to create an his family’s long-term wealth, regardless of considerations when developing an investment portfolio outside of their the recent downturns in his business. allocation for any individual, but company because they are concerned Unfortunately, not every family business for those whose wealth is primarily about the risk of the business while owner has considered the consequences derived from a business they own, others are simply looking for a place of betting all their wealth on investments the business should be the priority. that are likely to follow the same trends to invest their excess cash. affecting their business. Simply being balanced and diversified across asset 1 See: classes and investments may not be Indjic, Drago – “Strategic Asset Allocation with Portfolios of Hedge Funds” AIMA Journal, December 2002. enough to ensure wealth preservation; Idzorek, Thomas M. – “It’s now possible to prove that private equity has a place in a diversified collection of it has to be effective. effective wealth assets” Morningstar Advisor, Winter 2008. management and asset allocation starts Van Eck Associates et al “Asset Allocation: Consider the Commodities You Already Own” Seeking Alpha, with understanding the expected market November 2007. cycle of your biggest asset, your business. Ibbotson, Roger G.; Chen, Peng; Milevsky, M.A. and Zhu, Xingnong – “Human Capital, Asset Allocation, and Life Insurance,” May 2005. Yale ICF Working Paper No. 05-11. then you can use that knowledge to design a balanced and diversified Reichenstein, William – “Calculating After-Tax Asset Allocation Is Key to Determining Risk, Returns, and Asset Location,” Journal of Financial Planning, July 2007. investment portfolio that helps protect Horan, Stephen M. – “Applying After-Tax Asset Allocation,” The Journal of Wealth Management, Fall 2007. your family’s wealth against overexposure Wilcox, Jarrod; Horvitz, Jeffrey E and diBartolomeo; Dan – Investment Management for Taxable Private to those same cycles. Investors The Research Foundation of CFA Institute 2006. -2-
  • 3. Overlooking the Elephant be difficult to find reasonable data for in the Room the business that can be easily For many established business owners, compared. Many privately held their business often represents their companies are highly specialized or single greatest asset. And since wealth are in a niche market, or both. In preservation requires balance and other cases, businesses might be serving diversification, that business must be an emerging industry. Unlike public considered in designing their investment companies with stringent reporting portfolio. It’s the elephant in the room – requirements, financial data about ignored surprisingly often, despite its size. private, closely held companies may not be easily accessible. Even when data is John Ward is a Clinical Professor readily available it can be extremely time and Co-Director of Northwestern consuming to model. When asked in a University’s Kellogg School of Generally, advisors and other recent survey why portfolio Management Center for Family business consultants understand construction was becoming more Enterprises. He has consulted with a the risks associated with a difficult, the top three answers given number of owners of family businesses concentrated asset; in fact, by financial advisors were: greater and based on his experience says that they are often the ones who product selection, more time “most business owners are concerned recommend diversification to the consuming and complicated advice about the risks within their business business owner to begin with. topics.2 The response seems to reinforce and work to reduce their risk exposure the idea that some advisors may not through diversification.” However, have the time, skill-set or resources to Professor Ward also says “it is rare that adequately model the business an owner considers the performance component into asset allocation. behavior of their investment portfolio relative to their business.” 2. Illiquidity – Some owners don’t regard the business as part of their Generally, advisors and other business investment portfolio because typically consultants understand the risks it’s an illiquid asset. Since such associated with a concentrated asset; businesses are usually not on the sales in fact, they are often the ones who block, they are not considered by recommend diversification to the accountants and financial advisors business owner to begin with. Why, as “marked to market,” that is, then, are businesses “not considered or they have not been valued for the overlooked in business owners’ invest- potential amount they would bring ment portfolios,” as Professor Ward says? on the open market. To owners, and Reasons a Business May Be those who advise them, the portfolio Bypassed in Asset Allocation becomes something separate from the 1. Hard to Compare – Most often, business. They regard the portfolio financial advisors don’t attempt to as the place where they invest model the business component into distributions they take from their the asset allocation and determine business, not as something that should how its performance relates with other be complementary to the business. assets in the portfolio because it can The implications can be serious given 2 Investment Management Consultants Association and Cerulli Associates, Spring 2008 -3-
  • 4. the current focus on the inclusion of my business.” (See “The Fear of The Fear of Losing Control of alternative asset classes such as Losing Control,” in sidebar at left). private equity, hedge funds and 4. Calling in a Cadre – Some By nature, business owners are real estate in many asset allocation business owners believe they are reluctant to surrender their strategies. These non-traditional achieving portfolio diversification wealth to someone else, says Sara asset classes often have their by hiring several different money Hamilton, CeO and founder of the own liquidity risks which, if not managers to invest their non- Family Office exchange (FOX). FOX considered along with illiquidity business assets. But often, these provides research, education and of a business, may unintentionally money managers are thinking alike advice to more than 500 members compound the liquidity problem as and buying the same or similar in 22 countries, who represent assets, which means the owner is family business owners with a whole. now overexposed to the same assets ranging from $30 million 3. Familiarity and Control – investment risks. Unfortunately, to several billion dollars. Business owners make the major this approach still ignores the It comes down to a matter of decisions in their businesses. elephant in the room. If the control, she says. They are accustomed to being in performance of those investments control, and they are confident in has a high correlation with the “Someone who launches a their judgments. While confidence performance of their business, as business is almost always a driven, is good, over-confidence can they often do, the risk exposure to persistent, insistent person who lead an owner to underestimate the business owner may be much likes being in control,” she says. the risk in their business and, more than was anticipated. “that’s why they don’t go work for someone else. they think: ‘I know correspondingly, his or her need Including Your Business in how to build furniture. I know to better balance their portfolio. Your Asset Allocation Strategy: how to take care of my clients. I’m This “control” mindset has further 3 Important Steps in control of managing business implications on their portfolio Despite these obstacles, we have development.’” strategy as well. Since non-business found it is quite possible to apply financial investments are beyond For the same reason, she says, certain techniques to model most business owners don’t quite trust their control, they can be out of any business into an asset allocation financial markets; the outcome their comfort zone and may feel strategy. The three-step process is out of their control. “turning uncharacteristically hesitant. Faced described below is not an exact control of their wealth over to with this, business owners will science, but it will allow you to better someone else is a foreign concept. typically either stick to investments understand how your investment Instead, they may reinvest they are familiar with, or they may portfolio relates to your business, everything they’ve got back into defer entirely to their financial which will put you in a better position the business so there isn’t a lot of advisor for portfolio strategy and to manage your risk exposure. liquidity. It’s the known versus the construction. Finally, business unknown,” she observes. owners may not feel the need to 1. Create a Business Market Index the ability to deal with the known discuss their business with the Similar to the way indices are and the imperative to invest only advisor since the business is already built for businesses to use for under control. This ultimately can in things they can control may benchmarking and trend purposes, result in the advisor creating a explain why so many business- your company’s data can be analyzed portfolio of investments without owning families often invest their and compared against industry data any consideration of the business. non-business assets in real estate, and macroeconomic indicators. Every The advisor may even hear the Hamilton says, citing research business owner say “You take care company, large or small, public or FOX has done on typical asset of the portfolio and I will take care private, experiences up and down allocations. cycles. Your company’s business cycles (continued) -4-
  • 5. and what influences them can be your business would be considered (continued from previous page) estimated along with how the sales non-cyclical and thus will have a “they feel most comfortable rates change over time. By examining lower correlation to the economy. putting liquid assets into real this data you can determine: But that’s not necessarily true of all estate versus marketable service industries. For example, the • where your company is in the securities. real estate is tangible, financial services industry is obviously business cycle concrete, it’s under their control, tied closely to the equities market and and they’re used to buying real • which indicators actually lead likewise the economy. estate in their business. they’re your business, and First, we look at the markets in which not as trusting of the financial • where you can expect your company the business operates and competes, markets. they like owning physical to be in 12 to 24 months. and then we work on creating a assets.” Another foreign concept to business owners and business- Example Business Market Analysis owning families is the idea of SALES INDICATOR 115 viewing the company not only 145 as an asset but also one that is subject to risk from market swings 130 110 and other factors. “A business owner never feels his 115 105 own business is a risky venture,” Hamilton continues. “Hardly ever 100 100 do they see risk in what they own and manage because they’re 85 95 totally in control.” For the same Company Sales reason, they may resist taking Indicator advice from someone else, she says. 70 90 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 “Yet almost every financial advisor I know, when they talk to a business- owning family, is To determine when future sales highs weighted Business Market Index definitely talking to them in and lows may occur, this analysis (BMI) to reflect the company’s degree the context of the business compares your company revenues with of involvement in those markets. and the risks involved in that a selection of economic indicators. Let’s say a company’s products or core business. But the idea of It’s not enough to simply know sales services are sold to these markets: comparing their company against trends. It is imperative that the future 50 percent of sales go to industrial other assets whose economic sales highs and lows, which affect markets, 19 percent to law firms, cycles correlate with that of the business valuation, are considered 17 percent to accounting firms and business is just not something within the context of other assets. 14 percent to “other.” We look for many business owners have The type of business drives the external data to reflect the business- thought about.” process. A manufacturing business will cycle behavior of each identified market. But perhaps it’s time to consider it, typically have a higher correlation to If sufficient company data are available, she says. the economy, much the same way the we can actually test the relationships equities market tends to perform. By before constructing the BMI. The contrast, if you operate a law firm or “other” category would probably be one that’s tied to the legal industry, allocated to a general category, such as -5-
  • 6. GDP, if it’s deemed to have some indexes we established, we can create a cyclicality. If “other” has no discernible weighted BMI of that company. business-cycle relationships, it’s desig- By examining historical returns and nated as a non-cyclical business measure. volatility of the BMI it is possible to This example will apply in many cases, model future returns as well as the ups Defining Correlation – but sometimes a broad sales-market and downs, or volatility, of the business. In designing an asset allocation designation needs to be better defined. It won’t be a perfect benchmark, but strategy, financial advisors may chart In the above example “Industrials” can it’s a close approximation – and a far how a group of assets correlate, or comprise a wide variety of products, better option than not considering that perform against each other over each with different business-cycle business at all. time. If a portfolio is well-balanced, behavior. For instance, the business cycle each individual asset class within the 2. Build a Correlation Matrix of the commercial aircraft subset may be portfolio can be expected to vary in Once the Business Market Index that is performance. two assets A and B can quite different from that of the power generation subset, or that of a metal- reflective of a company’s business cycle have a correlation that ranges from -1 to is determined, a correlation matrix that 1. For example, if Asset A is up and Asset working business, or one that produces B is also up, they are said to be positively compares the company’s performance a product for the housing industry. correlated. If A is up, but B is down, they against the performance of other Before we can construct a business-cycle financial assets is created. This lets the are negatively correlated. If they increase together in equal amounts, then they benchmark for the business, our job is owner see which assets are more highly have a correlation of +1. If they move in to find these differences. Then, when correlated to the business. For example, equal amounts in the opposite direction, we’ve determined what the end-market a correlation matrix for a “Sample they have a correlation of -1. components should be, we research Company,” a national distribution relevant data streams. We standardize company, is shown in Table 1. From the the data so that the market activity table you can see that, on a relative basis, is expressed in a common unit, most International Equity has the highest often by indexing each of the series to a correlation with the Sample Company at common base. By applying the weighting 0.38 while Intermediate Taxable Bonds scheme to each of the market component has the lowest correlation at -0.40. tABLe 1 Correlation Matrix Large Cap Small Cap International Emerging REITs High Yield Intermediate Cash Commodities Hedge Fund Sample Equity Equity Equity Markets Bonds Taxable Bonds of Funds Company Large Cap Equity 1.00 0.88 0.69 0.61 0.59 0.53 0.18 -0.03 -0.27 0.46 0.37 Small Cap Equity 0.88 1.00 0.62 0.72 0.68 0.59 0.08 -0.04 -0.14 0.53 0.18 International Equity 0.69 0.62 1.00 0.58 0.49 0.42 0.14 -0.12 -0.18 0.38 0.38 Emerging Markets 0.61 0.72 0.58 1.00 0.34 0.50 -0.26 -0.12 -0.14 0.59 0.03 REITs 0.59 0.68 0.49 0.34 1.00 0.54 0.36 -0.11 -0.22 0.22 -0.02 High Yield Bonds 0.53 0.59 0.42 0.50 0.54 1.00 0.27 -0.05 -0.31 0.25 0.08 Intermediate Taxable Bonds 0.18 0.08 0.14 -0.26 0.36 0.27 1.00 0.19 -0.11 -0.13 -0.40 Cash -0.03 -0.04 -0.12 -0.12 -0.11 -0.05 0.19 1.00 -0.01 0.10 -0.14 Commodities -0.27 -0.14 -0.18 -0.14 -0.22 -0.31 -0.11 -0.01 1.00 0.12 0.12 Hedge Fund of Funds 0.46 0.53 0.38 0.59 0.22 0.25 -0.13 0.10 0.12 1.00 0.34 Sample Company 0.37 0.18 0.38 0.03 -0.02 0.08 -0.40 -0.14 0.12 0.34 1.00 Intermediate Taxable Bonds has International Equity has highest lowest correlation with correlation with Sample Company Sample Company -6-
  • 7. We can then use the correlation matrix understand how your company behaves to build an overall asset allocation that’s relative to other asset classes you can better structured. To be fully balanced, balance your risk exposures. the owner would want to invest more Some scenarios: heavily in asset classes with a lower • A real estate developer would want correlation to the business and start a portfolio with a low correlation to avoiding asset classes that are more real estate. We’ve observed that many highly correlated with the business. business owners choose to diversify by Put another way, owners and their building a portfolio of assets they may advisors would look for assets that have be more familiar with, such as real as low a correlation as possible – perhaps estate or private equity. Unfortunately, even a negative correlation to their a large component of most businesses business. The goal is to make sure the is already significantly invested in real It is critical to understand how owner isn’t overexposed to swings in the estate – in an office, warehouse or your business behaves relative business cycle. manufacturing plant. So diversifying to your other holdings, or, how This might suggest that instead of by adding more of what you are it correlates with other types of heavily investing in real estate or a familiar with may not be diversifying financial assets. portfolio of domestic equities, other at all. investments need to be considered. • If profits of your business get squeezed These might include traditional as when commodities, such as energy well as high-yield bonds; stocks and and raw materials, are rising, it may bonds of international and emerging make sense to include commodities markets; and alternative investments in your portfolio. On the other such as private equity, hedge funds, hand if you owned a company in the and commodities like gold, oil and energy business, you should actually corn. We realize that some of these restrict your portfolio managers from investments may be abhorrent to some investing in commodities and other business owners because they may be sectors, such as emerging markets, unfamiliar to them, or the return that may be linked to commodities. potential may not be what they’re used Should the commodities continue to in their business. However, if real to rise, in either case your exposure estate or equities suddenly headed down would be balanced. in value, inclusion of some or all of these • It is important to understand what types of investments should buffer the sectors are dominating returns in total portfolio against a meltdown. the equity markets. In the 1990s, 3. Balance Your Risks technology companies comprised It is critical to understand how your a substantial part of the S&P 500. business behaves relative to your other If you had a tech business whose holdings, or, how it correlates with other success was based on selling into that types of financial assets. That way, you industry, you may not have gotten can avoid being overexposed or heavily the balance you thought by simply concentrated in assets that mirror your investing in a broad market equity company’s business cycle. Once you fund that benchmarked itself against the S&P 500. -7-
  • 8. erging Markets High Yield Bonds • Your business and the real estate you that generated net proceeds of $4.1 own are considered to be illiquid million in cash. The owner decides to assets. That is to say there is no active consult with a professional advisor to market in which you could easily and get some input on how a portfolio of immediately turn the asset into cash. $5 million (the stock portfolio plus the You will need to balance that lack of new cash) should be invested. liquidity with more liquid assets in The owner informs the advisor that he your investment portfolio. So even is looking to diversify and invest the if an asset class has a low correlation money in something that will provide POrtFOLIO A 3 with your business, you may need to a reasonable return. As the business has REITS limit the amount of that asset class in been doing very well there is no need your total portfolio in order to balance for any income from the portfolio so the Small Cap Core 5% your overall liquidity risk. return can be reinvested. Large Cap 15% 40% Core Assuming the owner’s financial advisor Bringing it All Together to Better Manage Your Risk Exposure has adopted a model focused on International 20% asset allocation, a typical portfolio Equity Every company, large or small, public or recommendation might be a diversified private, experiences up and down cycles. 20% group of asset classes including domestic With careful data collection, these and international equities, some bonds Intermediate Bond cycles can be forecasted fairly accurately and perhaps some real estate. It may to help owners plan and maximize look very similar to Portfolio A. the profits of their businesses. In the same way, that type of knowledge can Based on historical data, Portfolio A has POrtFOLIO B 4 also help owners plan and increase the produced a reasonable return and has High Yield Bonds performance of their total portfolios. not gone down as much as the rest of Small Cap Core the market during bad times. Looks OK 5% Let’s look at an example of how 5% right? Or is it? Commodities Intermediate this might work in practice: Take a 10% 50% Upon examining a correlation matrix, Bonds distribution business that is currently Emerging worth $20 million. The owner has developed using the company’s BMI, 10% Markets total real estate holdings, including and comparing it to Portfolio A, you his primary residence and a vacation would find that most every asset class 20% home, of $2.5 million. He has a modest in the portfolio has a relatively high Cash correlation with the business. This investment portfolio of individual stocks and mutual funds that he means that it is fairly likely that the bought over the years from his broker portfolio will move, at least directionally, totaling $900,000. The owner recently in lock-step with the business. When the completed a sale and lease back of the business underperforms, the portfolio building where his business is located returns will likely be poor as well. 3 Portfolio A is a hypothetical portfolio with an annualized return of 8.05% over the 10 year period 1/1/1999 to 12/31/2007. The maximum one year decline was 25.03% over the same period. The indices that were used to construct and back-test this portfolio and corresponding asset class were as follows: S&P 500/Large Cap Core, U.S. Small Cap Stocks/Small Cap Core, MSCI EAFE/International Equity, FTSE NAREIT/REITs, LB U.S. Aggregate/Intermediate Bond. This information has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable. We cannot, however, guarantee its accuracy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The stated market indices are unmanaged indices used to measure and repeat performance of the market in general. Direct investment in an index is not possible. The investment results depicted herein represent historical gross performance with no deduction for management fees or transaction costs. Dividends are assumed to be reinvested. 4 Portfolio B is a hypothetical portfolio with an annualized return of 7.83% over the 10 year period 1/1/1999 to 12/31/2007. The maximum one year decline was 5.95% over the same period. The indices that were used to construct and back-test this portfolio and corresponding asset class were as follows: S&P 500/Large Cap Core, U.S. Small Cap Stocks/Small Cap Core, MSCI EAFE/International Equity, FTSE NAREIT/REITs, LB U.S. Aggregate/Intermediate Bond. This information has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable. We cannot, however, guarantee its accuracy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The stated market indices are unmanaged indices used to measure and repeat performance of the market in general. Direct investment in an index is not possible. The investment results depicted herein represent historical gross performance with no deduction for management fees or transaction costs. Dividends are assumed to be reinvested. -8-
  • 9. From a “wealth preservation” point of business may not protect your family’s view, a potentially superior portfolio can long-term wealth, since the trends that be constructed utilizing asset classes that move the value of the portfolio may have a low or even negative correlation be similar to the trends that affect the with the business. For example, most fortunes of your business. Therefore, it is of the asset classes that make up crucial for your asset allocation strategy Portfolio B have a relatively low or to integrate your business as one of your even negative correlation with the biggest assets. We have provided you sample company. This portfolio has with a simple methodology to do so. a significantly lower probability of You must also realize that real estate being down when the business is down might not necessarily cushion your relative to Portfolio A. Keeping in wealth throughout a volatile economic mind the business asset, this portfolio cycle. A significant portion of your also has substantial liquidity to balance company’s value might already be in real If your business is one of your the illiquid business and real estate of estate, so you may already have enough biggest assets and it has not been the owner, just in case the good times exposure to that asset class. And, as we’ve adequately considered in your the business is currently experiencing recently experienced, real estate values wealth management strategy, don’t continue. Finally, both Portfolio can sag as quickly as they can soar. perhaps it is time you should A and Portfolio B have about the same consider it. Lastly, keep in mind liquidity risk. In return expectation based on historical your quest to balance your risks it is performance, while Portfolio B has important to understand that your about one third the downside potential, business and the real estate you own are or risk, as does Portfolio A. illiquid. Be sure you have ample liquidity As this example demonstrates, the extra in your investment portfolio so that effort required to bring the business you can meet any unanticipated cash into the asset allocation mix can pay-off needs. This is particularly a concern on in the form of a more thoughtful asset the downside of the business cycle when allocation and a superior investment credit conditions tighten and liquidity is portfolio with a definite focus on at a premium. wealth preservation. If your business is one of your biggest The Bottom Line assets and it has not been adequately John Kenneth Galbraith, considered considered in your wealth management by some to be one of America’s most strategy, perhaps it is time you should famous economists, said: “One of the consider it. Visit with your financial greatest pieces of economic wisdom is to advisor and have him or her re- know what you do not know.” Based on assess your asset allocation. Work to our experience and that of consultants understand how your business behaves like John Ward of Northwestern relative to your investment portfolio first University and The Family Office and make any changes required to ensure Exchange’s Sarah Hamilton, who spend they perform differently. After you their time working with business owners, have taken this important step toward many business owners do not know how preserving your wealth, you can move the performance of their business relates on to other important issues that impact to that of their investment portfolio. asset allocation, like the need to consider alternative investments, your lifetime As we have discussed, an investment earnings potential and taxes. portfolio that does not consider your -9-
  • 10. ABOUt tHe AUtHOrS: Christopher G. Didier is Managing Director, Private Asset Management Group with robert W. Baird & Co., headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. He holds an MBA from the University of Chicago and is a CFA Charterholder. Along with ed DeFrance and David Klenke, both CPAs and CFAs, he formed a private asset management team that focuses on high-net-worth individuals and families, and family offices. Chris and his team specialize in serving the wealth management needs of current and former CeOs of public and private companies. Chris was named to Worth magazine’s “top 100 Wealth Advisors” in 2007. You can contact Chris at 414-765-7095 or cdidier@rwbaird.com. Brian L. Beaulieu has been an economist with the Institute for trend research in Concord, New Hampshire, since 1982, serving as its executive Director since 1987. He does applied research into business cycle trend analysis and the use of cyclical analysis at a practical business level. Brian has been quoted by the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Barron’s, USA Today, Knight Ridder News Services, Reuters, CBS Radio, The Washington Times, KERA TV, Business News Network TV, and is a regular columnist and contributing economist to national trade associations and publications. He is Chief economist for vistage International and teC, global organizations that comprise more than 14,000 CeOs. You can contact Brian at 603-226-9331 or Brian@ecotrends.org. © All rights reserved. this information cannot be represented or used without the consent of the authors. - 10 - MC-23727 First use: 06/2008