http://goo.gl/xEsMF6

1.
ROD
U
Business
Model
Premortem
Game
Why
and
How
Your
Business
Model
Could
Crash
A
Holis(c
Perspec(ve
Dr.
Rod
King

2. Following
Elements
of
a
Business
Model
Crash
Are
Based
on
the
Content
of
Saar
Gur’s
(DraC)
Presenta(on
to
Stanford
Graduate
School
of
Business
“WHY
MOST
STARTUPS
FAIL
AT
ACQUIRING
NEW
CUSTOMERS
(And
How
You
Can
Succeed!)”
January
2014
(h#p://www.slideshare.net/saarsaar/why-­‐most-­‐startups-­‐fail-­‐at-­‐acquiring-­‐new-­‐customers-­‐and-­‐how-­‐you-­‐can-­‐succeed)

3. A
Business
Model
Illustrates
How
an
OrganizaYon
Creates,
Delivers,
and
Shares
Value
(Happiness)
A
Business
Model
consists
of
three
sub-­‐models
or
3
Ps:
q P:
Provider’s
Model:
Create
Value
q P:
Player’s
Model:
Deliver
Value
q P:
Performance
Model:
Share
Value
(Happiness)
#4ROD.
Dr.
Rod
King.
rodkuhnhking@gmail.com
&
hSp://businessmodels.ning.com
&
hSp://twiSer.com/RodKuhnKing

4. Gary
Klein’s
Premortem
Technique
“We’re
looking
in
a
crystal
ball,
and
this
[business
model]
project
has
failed;
it’s
a
fiasco.
Now,
everybody,
take
two
minutes
and
write
down
all
the
reasons
why
you
think
the
project
failed.”

5. 3P-­‐BUSINESS
MODEL
NETWORK:
Anatomy
of
Business
Model
Profitably
Create,
Deliver,
and
Share
Happiness
requires
1 2 3 4 5
drives
delivers
P:
PROVIDER’S
MODEL
Level
P:
PLAYER’S
MODEL
requires
P:
PERFORMANCE
MODEL
#4ROD.
Dr.
Rod
King.
rodkuhnhking@gmail.com
&
hSp://businessmodels.ning.com
&
hSp://twiSer.com/RodKuhnKing

6. Level
3P-­‐BUSINESS
MODEL
NETWORK:
Anatomy
of
a
Business
Model
Crash
Profitably
Create,
Deliver,
and
Share
Happiness
drives
delivers
P:
PROVIDER’S
MODEL
requires
Inputs/Partners
q Few
or
no
mentors/guides/
coaches/partners
q Inadequate
funding
Internal
Resources
q Team
with
inadequate
competence/synergy
for
doing
con(nuous
innova(on
and
improvement
projects
Processes/AcYviYes
1 2 3 4 5
P:
PLAYER’S
MODEL
requires
Product/Service;
Value
ProposiYon
q Bad,
“buggy”,
or
poor
quality
product/service
q No
or
Bland
Value
Proposi(on
Channels
&
RelaYonships
P:
PERFORMANCE
MODEL
Cost
(Pain):
q High
Admin/Staff
Cost
q Costly
infrastructure
q High
Customer
Life(me
Cost
(CLC)
Revenue
(Delight):
q Poorly
selected/sub-­‐op(mal
channels
q Poor
customer
rela(onships
q Declining
or
no
sales
(revenue
streams)
q Poor
customer
engage-­‐
ment/acquisitn/retentn
Player/Gamer/Customer/
Job-­‐To-­‐Get-­‐Done
PERFORMANCE
(PROFIT;
VALUE)
q Focus
on
Waterfall
(Sequen-­‐
q High
Unit
Cost
or
CLV
(al)
Planning/Execu(on
q Undefined
customer
persona
q Poor
Strategy/Execu(on
q Liele
Sales
or
No
Profit
q Undefined
customer
problem,
q Bankruptcy/Failure
q Slow
or
inadequate
learning
needs,
or
job
to
get
done
#4ROD.
Dr.
Rod
King.
rodkuhnhking@gmail.com
&
hSp://businessmodels.ning.com
&
hSp://twiSer.com/RodKuhnKing

7. Level
3P-­‐BUSINESS
MODEL
NETWORK:
Anatomy
of
a
Business
Model
Crash
Profitably
Create,
Deliver,
and
Share
Happiness
drives
delivers
Inputs/Partners
q Few
or
no
mentors/guides/
coaches/partners
q Inadequate
funding
Internal
Resources
q Team
with
inadequate
competence/synergy
for
doing
con(nuous
innova(on
and
improvement
projects
Processes/AcYviYes
P:
PERFORMANCE
MODEL
requires
Cost
(Pain):
Product/Service;
Value
ProposiYon
q Bad,
“buggy”,
or
poor
quality
product/service
q No
or
Bland
Value
Proposi(on
Channels
&
RelaYonships
q Poorly
selected/sub-­‐op(mal
channels
q Poor
customer
rela(onships
Player/Gamer/Customer/
Job-­‐To-­‐Get-­‐Done
q High
Admin/Staff
Cost
q Costly
infrastructure
q High
Customer
Life(me
Cost
(CLC)
Revenue
(Delight):
q Declining
or
no
sales
(revenue
streams)
q Poor
customer
engage-­‐
ment/acquisitn/retentn
drive(s)
requires
P:
PLAYER’S
MODEL
(NO
Problem-­‐Solu(on
Fit;
NO
Product-­‐Market
Fit)
P:
PROVIDER’S
MODEL
1 2 3 4 5
PERFORMANCE
(PROFIT;
VALUE)
q Focus
on
Waterfall
(Sequen-­‐
q High
Unit
Cost
or
CLV
(al)
Planning/Execu(on
q Undefined
customer
persona
q Poor
Strategy/Execu(on
q Liele
Sales
or
No
Profit
q Undefined
customer
problem,
q Bankruptcy/Failure
q Slow
or
inadequate
learning
needs,
or
job
to
get
done
#4ROD.
Dr.
Rod
King.
rodkuhnhking@gmail.com
&
hSp://businessmodels.ning.com
&
hSp://twiSer.com/RodKuhnKing

8. Level
3P-­‐BUSINESS
MODEL
NETWORK:
Anatomy
of
a
Business
Model
Crash
Profitably
Create,
Deliver,
and
Share
Happiness
drives
delivers
Inputs/Partners
q Few
or
no
mentors/guides/
coaches/partners
q Inadequate
funding
impact(s)
affect(s)
Internal
Resources
q Team
with
inadequate
competence/synergy
for
doing
con(nuous
innova(on
and
improvement
projects
impact(s)
deliver(s)
Processes/AcYviYes
requires
Product/Service;
Value
ProposiYon
q Bad,
“buggy”,
or
poor
quality
product/service
q No
or
Bland
Value
Proposi(on
impact(s)
affect(s)
Channels
&
RelaYonships
q Poorly
selected/sub-­‐op(mal
channels
q Poor
customer
rela(onships
impact(s)
P:
PERFORMANCE
MODEL
affect(s)
Player/Gamer/Customer/
Job-­‐To-­‐Get-­‐Done
Cost
(Pain):
impacts
q High
Admin/Staff
Cost
q Costly
infrastructure
q High
Customer
Life(me
Cost
(CLC)
Revenue
(Delight):
q Declining
or
no
sales
(revenue
streams)
q Poor
customer
engage-­‐
ment/acquisitn/retentn
drive(s)
requires
P:
PLAYER’S
MODEL
(NO
Problem-­‐Solu(on
Fit;
NO
Product-­‐Market
Fit)
P:
PROVIDER’S
MODEL
1 2 3 4 5
PERFORMANCE
(PROFIT;
VALUE)
q Focus
on
Waterfall
(Sequen-­‐
q High
Unit
Cost
or
CLV
(al)
Planning/Execu(on
q Undefined
customer
persona
affects
q Poor
Strategy/Execu(on
q Liele
Sales
or
No
Profit
q Undefined
customer
problem,
q Bankruptcy/Failure
q Slow
or
inadequate
learning
needs,
or
job
to
get
done
#4ROD.
Dr.
Rod
King.
rodkuhnhking@gmail.com
&
hSp://businessmodels.ning.com
&
hSp://twiSer.com/RodKuhnKing

9. Level
3P-­‐BUSINESS
MODEL
NETWORK:
Anatomy
of
a
Business
Model
Crash
Profitably
Create,
Deliver,
and
Share
Happiness
drives
delivers
q Few
or
no
mentors/guides/
coaches/partners
q Inadequate
funding
requires
q Bad,
“buggy”,
or
poor
quality
product/service
q No
or
Bland
Value
Proposi(on
Channel
Management
Internal
Resources
q Team
with
inadequate
competence/synergy
for
doing
con(nuous
innova(on
and
improvement
projects
Cost
(Pain):
Product/Service;
Value
ProposiYon
Channels
&
RelaYonships
q Poorly
selected/sub-­‐op(mal
channels
q Poor
customer
rela(onships
Customer
Rel.
Management
Processes/AcYviYes
Player/Gamer/Customer/
Job-­‐To-­‐Get-­‐Done
q High
Admin/Staff
Cost
q Costly
infrastructure
q High
Customer
Life(me
Cost
(CLC)
Revenue
(Delight):
q Declining
or
no
sales
(revenue
streams)
q Poor
customer
engage-­‐
ment/acquisitn/retentn
drive(s)
Inputs/Partners
P:
PERFORMANCE
MODEL
MarkeYng/Sales
Management
requires
P:
PLAYER’S
MODEL
(NO
Problem-­‐Solu(on
Fit;
NO
Product-­‐Market
Fit)
P:
PROVIDER’S
MODEL
1 2 3 4 5
PERFORMANCE
(PROFIT;
VALUE)
q Focus
on
Waterfall
(Sequen-­‐
q High
Unit
Cost
or
CLV
(al)
Planning/Execu(on
q Undefined
customer
persona
q Poor
Strategy/Execu(on
q Liele
Sales
or
No
Profit
q Undefined
customer
problem,
q Bankruptcy/Failure
q Slow
or
inadequate
learning
needs,
or
job
to
get
done
#4ROD.
Dr.
Rod
King.
rodkuhnhking@gmail.com
&
hSp://businessmodels.ning.com
&
hSp://twiSer.com/RodKuhnKing

10. Environmental
Constraints
Influencing
A
Business
Model
Crash

11. Level
3P-­‐BUSINESS
MODEL
NETWORK:
“SWOT”
Factors
of
a
Business
Model
Crash
Profitably
Create,
Deliver,
and
Share
Happiness
1 2 3 4 5
W:
Weaknesses
P:
PROVIDER’S
MODEL
Value
Delivery:
PLAYER
P:
PLAYER’S
MODEL
T:
Threats
Value
Sharing
(Happiness):
PERFORMANCE
P:
PERFORMANCE
MODEL
O:
OpportuniYes
S:
Strengths
Value
Crea)on:
PROVIDER
#4ROD.
Dr.
Rod
King.
rodkuhnhking@gmail.com
&
hSp://businessmodels.ning.com
&
hSp://twiSer.com/RodKuhnKing

12. Level
3P-­‐BUSINESS
MODEL
NETWORK:
Environmental
Factors
of
a
Business
Model
Crash
Profitably
Create,
Deliver,
and
Share
Happiness
Value
Crea)on:
PROVIDER
P:
PROVIDER’S
MODEL
Value
Delivery:
PLAYER
P:
PLAYER’S
MODEL
ENVIRONMENT
1 2 3 4 5
Value
Sharing
(Happiness):
PERFORMANCE
P:
PERFORMANCE
MODEL
#4ROD.
Dr.
Rod
King.
rodkuhnhking@gmail.com
&
hSp://businessmodels.ning.com
&
hSp://twiSer.com/RodKuhnKing

13. Level
3P-­‐BUSINESS
MODEL
NETWORK:
Environmental
Factors
of
a
Business
Model
Crash
Profitably
Create,
Deliver,
and
Share
Happiness
1 2 3 4 5
Value
Crea)on:
PROVIDER
P:
PROVIDER’S
MODEL
Value
Delivery:
PLAYER
P:
PLAYER’S
MODEL
Value
Sharing
(Happiness):
PERFORMANCE
P:
PERFORMANCE
MODEL
Macro-­‐Economic
Influencers
(MEI):
Global
Economy
Market
Ecosystem
(ME):
Demand
Industry
Ecosystem
(IE):
Supply
Key
Trends
&
Complementors
(KTC):
PESTLIED
(-­‐/+)
#4ROD.
Dr.
Rod
King.
rodkuhnhking@gmail.com
&
hSp://businessmodels.ning.com
&
hSp://twiSer.com/RodKuhnKing

14. Level
3P-­‐BUSINESS
MODEL
NETWORK:
Local
Industry
Factors
of
a
Business
Model
Crash
Profitably
Create,
Deliver,
and
Share
Happiness
1 2 3 4 5
Value
Crea)on:
PROVIDER
P:
PROVIDER’S
MODEL
Value
Delivery:
PLAYER
P:
PLAYER’S
MODEL
Value
Sharing
(Happiness):
PERFORMANCE
P:
PERFORMANCE
MODEL
Threat
of
SubsYtute
Products
or
Services
Bargaining
Power
of
Customers
Bargaining
Power
of
Suppliers
Threat
of
New
Entrants
#4ROD.
Dr.
Rod
King.
rodkuhnhking@gmail.com
&
hSp://businessmodels.ning.com
&
hSp://twiSer.com/RodKuhnKing

15. On
Tools
for
The
Business
Model
Premortem
Game

16. TRADE-­‐OFF
MAP:
Tools
for
the
Business
Model
Premortem
Game
Big
Urgent
Market
Problem
(BUMP):
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Job
To
Get
Done
(Market/Goal/Mo(va(on):
………………………………………………….………………………………………………………….
Ideal
Final
Result
(IFR):
Insanely
Great
Experience
(Happiness)
or
Ideal
Business
Planning
and
Management
(+):
DELIGHT:
Reward
(Pay-­‐off)
High
(10)
LEAN
STARTUP-­‐SIX
SIGMA
GAME
(Business
Model
Premortem
Story)
AGILE
DEVELOPMENT
SIX
SIGMA
METHOD
LEAN
STARTUP
METHOD
Low
(1)
WATERFALL
PLANNING
Low
(1)
(-­‐):
PAIN:
Cost
(Time)
High
(10)

17. Guy
Kawasaki
on
the
Premortem
Technique
“A
premortem
is
the
best
way
that
I
know
to
increase
the
probability
of
a
project's
success.
It
means
you
tell
the
team
to
assume
that
the
project
failed
and
then
come
up
with
the
reasons
why
it
failed.
Then
you
eliminate
as
many
of
those
reasons
as
possible.”

18. Daniel
Kahneman,
2002
Nobel
Prize
Winner
in
Economics,
on
the
Premortem
Technique
“The
premortem
is
a
great
idea.
I
menYoned
it
at
Davos—giving
full
credit
to
Gary—and
the
chairman
of
a
large
corporaYon
said
it
was
worth
coming
to
Davos
for.
The
beauty
of
the
premortem
is
that
it
is
very
easy
to
do.
My
guess
is
that,
in
general,
doing
a
premortem
on
a
plan
that
is
about
to
be
adopted
won’t
cause
it
to
be
abandoned.
But
it
will
probably
be
tweaked
in
ways
that
everybody
will
recognize
as
beneficial.
So
the
premortem
is
a
low-­‐cost,
high-­‐payoff
kind
of
thing.”

19. Business
Model
Premortem
Game
“Playing
Dead
in
Business
and
Life”