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THE	
  RISE	
  OF	
  CHINA’S	
  MARITIME	
  POWER	
  IN	
  THE	
  SOUTH	
  
CHINA	
  SEA:	
  	
  MARITIME	
  SECURITY	
  DILEMMA	
  	
  
IN	
  PHILIPPINES-­CHINA	
  RELATIONS*	
  
	
  
Rommel	
  C.	
  Banlaoi**	
  
	
  
Abstract	
  
	
  
	
   Though	
   the	
   Philippines	
   and	
   China	
   have	
   declared	
   2012	
   and	
   2013	
   as	
   years	
   of	
  
friendly	
   exchanges	
   between	
   the	
   two	
   countries,	
   they	
   are	
   currently	
   at	
   odd	
   with	
   each	
  
other	
   due	
   to	
   the	
   continuing	
   sovereignty	
   disputes	
   in	
   the	
   South	
   China	
   Sea.	
   China’s	
  
growing	
   maritime	
   power	
   as	
   a	
   result	
   of	
   the	
   implementation	
   of	
   its	
   current	
   naval	
  
strategy	
  creates	
  security	
  anxieties	
  in	
  the	
  Philippines.	
  	
  These	
  security	
  anxieties	
  affect	
  
the	
  present	
  dynamics	
  in	
  Philippines-­China	
  relations.	
  	
  	
  	
  In	
  the	
  context	
  of	
  the	
  South	
  China	
  
Sea	
  Disputes,	
  the	
  Philippines	
  and	
  China	
  are	
  now	
  suffering	
  a	
  security	
  dilemma,	
  a	
  tragic	
  
situation	
  that	
  creates	
  enmity	
  rather	
  than	
  amity	
  in	
  their	
  relations.	
  With	
  their	
  security	
  
dilemma,	
   the	
   Philippines	
   and	
   China	
   are	
   presently	
   trapped	
   in	
   a	
   “guessing	
   game”	
  
situation	
  trying	
  to	
  speculate	
  on	
  each	
  other’s	
  strategic	
  intention	
  whether	
  it	
  is	
  benign	
  or	
  
malign.	
   Finding	
   ways	
   to	
   ameliorate	
   this	
   security	
   dilemma	
   is	
   essential	
   for	
   both	
  
countries	
   to	
   promote	
   cooperation	
   rather	
   than	
   competition	
   in	
   their	
   overall	
  
relationship.	
  
	
   	
  
INTRODUCTION	
  
	
  
	
   Since	
   the	
   10th	
   century,	
   the	
   Philippines	
   and	
   China	
   have	
   enjoyed	
   very	
   close,	
  
peaceful	
  and	
  friendly	
  relations.	
  	
  But	
  the	
  start	
  of	
  the	
  21st	
  century	
  puts	
  their	
  friendly	
  
relations	
  in	
  a	
  very	
  challenging	
  situation	
  because	
  of	
  their	
  existing	
  differences	
  on	
  how	
  
to	
  peacefully	
  resolve	
  their	
  territorial	
  disputes	
  in	
  the	
  South	
  China	
  Sea.	
  
	
  
	
   During	
  the	
  official	
  state	
  visit	
  of	
  President	
  Benigno	
  Simeon	
  Aquino	
  III	
  to	
  China	
  
on	
  31	
  August	
  2011,	
  both	
  countries	
  declared	
  “2012-­‐2013”	
  as	
  the	
  “Philippines-­‐China	
  
Years	
  of	
  Friendly	
  Exchanges”.	
  1	
  	
  However,	
  the	
  standoff	
  in	
  the	
  Scarborough	
  Shoal	
  that	
  
started	
   on	
   10	
   April	
   2012	
   and	
   their	
   continuing	
   disagreements	
   on	
   how	
   peacefully	
  
solve	
   the	
   South	
   China	
   Sea	
   problem	
   prevented	
   both	
   countries	
   to	
   implement	
   their	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
*Paper	
   based	
   on	
   the	
   lecture	
   presented	
   at	
   the	
   Seminar	
   on	
   the	
   Rise	
   of	
   China	
   as	
   Global	
   Power:	
   Its	
  
Impact	
  on	
  Asia	
  Pacific,	
  Bacobo	
  Hall,	
  University	
  of	
  the	
  Philippines	
  College	
  of	
  Law,	
  4	
  July	
  2013.	
  	
  This	
  
paper	
  is	
  also	
  culled	
  from	
  the	
  paper	
  presented	
  by	
  the	
  author	
  at	
  the	
  Ricardo	
  Leong	
  Center	
  for	
  China	
  
Studies,	
  Ateneo	
  de	
  Manila	
  University	
  on	
  26	
  July	
  2012.	
  
	
  
**The	
  author	
  is	
  the	
  Vice	
  President	
  of	
  the	
  Philippine	
  Association	
  for	
  China	
  Studies	
  (PACS)	
  and	
  a	
  Senior	
  
Lecturer	
   at	
   the	
   Department	
   of	
   International	
   Studies,	
   Miriam	
   College.	
   	
   He	
   is	
   also	
   the	
   Executive	
  
Director	
  of	
  the	
  Philippine	
  Institute	
  for	
  Peace,	
  Violence	
  and	
  Terrorism	
  Research	
  (PIPVTR).	
  	
  
	
  
1	
  For	
  detailed	
  discussions,	
  see	
  Rommel	
  C.	
  Banlaoi,	
  Philippines-­China	
  Security	
  Relations:	
  Current	
  Issues	
  
and	
  Emerging	
  Concerns	
  (Manila:	
  Yuchengco	
  Center,	
  2012),	
  pp.	
  175-­‐177.	
  
  2	
  
friendly	
  exchanges.	
  Instead,	
  the	
  two	
  countries	
  exchanged	
  diplomatic	
  protests	
  and	
  
even	
  harsh	
  media	
  commentaries	
  against	
  each	
  other	
  putting	
  their	
  bilateral	
  relations	
  
in	
  a	
  very	
  sour	
  state	
  during	
  the	
  whole	
  year	
  of	
  2012.	
  	
  For	
  the	
  year	
  2013,	
  there	
  has	
  
been	
  an	
  attempt	
  to	
  renew	
  their	
  friendly	
  exchanges	
  by	
  setting	
  aside	
  their	
  sovereignty	
  
claims	
  in	
  order	
  to	
  deescalate	
  existing	
  territorial	
  conflicts	
  in	
  the	
  South	
  China	
  Sea.	
  	
  	
  
	
  
	
   However,	
  China’s	
  already	
  grown	
  maritime	
  power	
  resulting	
  from	
  the	
  decisive	
  
implementation	
  of	
  its	
  current	
  naval	
  strategy	
  in	
  the	
  South	
  China	
  Sea	
  makes	
  it	
  utterly	
  
difficult	
  for	
  the	
  Philippines	
  to	
  just	
  sweep	
  the	
  South	
  China	
  Sea	
  issue	
  under	
  the	
  rug.	
  	
  	
  
The	
   Philippines	
   wants	
   an	
   immediate	
   peaceful	
   resolution	
   of	
   the	
   South	
   China	
   Sea	
  
dispute	
  because	
  of	
  its	
  urgent	
  need	
  to	
  develop	
  the	
  resources	
  in	
  its	
  maritime	
  domain	
  
for	
  its	
  national	
  economic	
  development.	
  
	
  
	
   For	
   China,	
   on	
   the	
   other	
   hand,	
   the	
   South	
   China	
   Sea	
   is	
   also	
   important	
   for	
  
economic,	
  political	
  and	
  strategic	
  reasons.	
  	
  Security	
  concerns	
  in	
  the	
  South	
  China	
  Sea	
  
affect	
   China’s	
   core	
   interests	
   that	
   define	
   its	
   foreign	
   relations	
   with	
   other	
   countries.	
  	
  
Though	
   China	
   has	
   a	
   strong	
   willingness	
   to	
   shelve	
   sovereignty	
   issues	
   in	
   the	
   South	
  
China	
  Sea,	
  there	
  is	
  a	
  domestic	
  pressure	
  in	
  China	
  to	
  use	
  its	
  present	
  maritime	
  power	
  
in	
  order	
  to	
  protect	
  the	
  country’s	
  national	
  interests	
  in	
  this	
  disputed	
  body	
  of	
  waters.	
  
	
  
	
   This	
  paper	
  argues	
  that	
  the	
  rise	
  of	
  China’s	
  maritime	
  power	
  resulting	
  from	
  the	
  
implementation	
   of	
   its	
   naval	
   strategy	
   in	
   the	
   South	
   China	
   Sea	
   poses	
   a	
   maritime	
  
security	
  dilemma	
  in	
  Philippines-­‐China	
  relations.	
  	
  Overcoming	
  this	
  maritime	
  security	
  
dilemma	
  is	
  essential	
  to	
  improve	
  the	
  current	
  state	
  in	
  their	
  bilateral	
  ties.	
  
	
  
	
  
SECURITY	
  DILEMMA:	
  	
  A	
  FRAMEWORK	
  OF	
  ANALYSIS2	
  	
  	
  
	
  
	
   Security	
  dilemma	
  is	
  an	
  excellent	
  framework	
  to	
  analyze	
  the	
  present	
  dynamics	
  
in	
   Philippines-­‐China	
   security	
   relations,	
   particularly	
   in	
   the	
   context	
   of	
   China’s	
  
implementation	
   of	
   its	
   naval	
   strategy	
   in	
   the	
   South	
   China	
   Sea.	
   Security	
   dilemma	
  
inevitably	
  exists	
  when	
  military	
  preparations	
  of	
  one	
  state	
  unnecessarily	
  create	
  an	
  un-­‐
resolvable	
   uncertainty	
   in	
   the	
   mind	
   of	
   another	
   state	
   as	
   to	
   whether	
   those	
  
preparations	
  are	
  for	
  “defensive”	
  or	
  “offensive”	
  purposes.3	
  	
  	
  
	
   With	
  the	
  general	
  concept	
  of	
  security	
  dilemma,	
  the	
  Philippines	
  and	
  China	
  are	
  
inevitably	
  trapped	
  in	
  a	
  difficult	
  “guessing	
  game”	
  situation	
  where	
  they	
  desperately	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
2I	
  also	
  used	
  this	
  framework	
  in	
  my	
  analysis	
  of	
  renewed	
  tensions	
  in	
  the	
  South	
  China	
  Sea.	
  See	
  Rommel	
  C.	
  
Banlaoi,	
  “Renewed	
  Tensions	
  and	
  Continuing	
  Maritime	
  Security	
  Dilemma	
  in	
  the	
  South	
  China	
  Sea”	
  in	
  
Tran	
   Trough	
   Thuy,	
   ed.,	
   The	
   South	
   China	
   Sea:	
   	
   Cooperation	
   for	
   Regional	
   Security	
   and	
   Development	
  	
  
(Hanoi:	
  	
  Diplomatic	
  Academy	
  of	
  Vietnam,	
  2010),	
  pp.	
  143-­‐159.	
  
	
  
3Nicholas	
  J.	
  Wheeler	
  and	
  Ken	
  Booth,	
  “The	
  Security	
  Dilemma”	
  in	
  John	
  Baylis	
  and	
  N.J.	
  Rennger	
  (eds),	
  
Dilemmas	
  of	
  World	
  Politics:	
  	
  International	
  Issues	
  in	
  Changing	
  World	
  (Oxford:	
  	
  Clarendon	
  Press,	
  1992),	
  
pp.	
  29-­‐60.	
  	
  
	
  
  3	
  
speculate	
  on	
  each	
  other’s	
  strategic	
  intention	
  whether	
  it	
  is	
  benign	
  or	
  malign.	
  	
  States	
  
perceptions	
   of	
   security	
   dilemma	
   create	
   a	
   great	
   paradox	
   in	
   which	
   states	
   arguably	
  
believe	
  that	
  their	
  security	
  requires	
  the	
  unintended	
  insecurities	
  of	
  others.4	
  	
  
	
   This	
   very	
   difficult	
   situation	
   undesirably	
   occurs	
   because	
   of	
   the	
   anarchic	
  
nature	
  of	
  international	
  system	
  where	
  there	
  is	
  the	
  utter	
  absence	
  of	
  an	
  overarching	
  
central	
  authority	
  that	
  can	
  effectively	
  regulate	
  and	
  even	
  tame	
  the	
  behavior	
  of	
  self-­‐
seeking	
  sovereign	
  states	
  whose	
  preoccupation	
  is	
  self-­‐preservation	
  and	
  survival.	
  	
  	
  
	
   In	
   an	
   anarchic	
   international	
   environment,	
   states	
   constantly	
   compete	
   with	
  
one	
  another	
  to	
  protect	
  their	
  highly	
  cherished	
  sovereignty	
  and	
  to	
  pursue	
  their	
  deeply	
  
valued	
   national	
   interests.5	
   	
   Though	
   the	
   state	
   of	
   anarchy	
   can	
   also	
   encourage	
   and	
  
motivate	
   states	
   to	
   cooperate	
   by	
   building	
   international	
   regimes	
   or	
   constructing	
  
international	
   norms	
   necessary	
   for	
   international	
   stability,	
   mutual	
   suspicions	
  
arguably	
  continue	
  to	
  define	
  the	
  reality	
  of	
  international	
  politics.	
  	
  
	
   These	
   mutual	
   suspicions	
   create	
   an	
   “action-­‐reaction”	
   dynamics	
   that	
   breed	
  
more	
  feelings	
  of	
  insecurities.	
  No	
  matter	
  how	
  states	
  convince	
  their	
  neighbors	
  that	
  
they	
   are	
   benign,	
   mutual	
   suspicions	
   unleash	
   a	
   sinister	
   perspective	
   that	
   a	
   benign	
  
status	
  can	
  change	
  to	
  a	
  malign	
  situation.	
  	
  	
  This	
  undesirable	
  malign	
  condition	
  creates	
  
enmity	
  rather	
  than	
  amity	
  between	
  states.	
  
	
   Thus,	
  security	
  dilemma	
  is	
  a	
  great	
  tragedy	
  because	
  small	
  armed	
  conflicts	
  or	
  a	
  
full-­‐scale	
  war	
  can	
  possibly	
  occur	
  between	
  and	
  among	
  states	
  though	
  none	
  of	
  them	
  
actually	
  desire	
  such	
  an	
  unintended	
  tragic	
  outcome.6	
  	
  Because	
  each	
  state	
  is	
  mandated	
  
to	
  pursue	
  its	
  own	
  national	
  interests,	
  security	
  uncertainties	
  pervade	
  in	
  the	
  relations	
  
among	
   states.	
   These	
   uncertainties	
   also	
   create	
   security	
   anxieties	
   that	
   in	
   turn	
  
exacerbate	
  the	
  security	
  dilemma.	
  	
  	
  
The	
   principle	
   of	
   security	
   dilemma	
   can	
   describe	
   the	
   present	
   complex	
  
dynamics	
   of	
   Philippines-­‐China	
   relations	
   in	
   the	
   South	
   China	
   Sea.7	
   	
   The	
   Philippines	
  
and	
   China	
   (as	
   well	
   as	
   other	
   claimants)	
   are	
   strongly	
   driven	
   by	
   their	
   desire	
   to	
  
vigorously	
  protect	
  their	
  territorial	
  integrity	
  and	
  advance	
  their	
  national	
  sovereignty	
  
in	
  this	
  highly	
  contested	
  body	
  of	
  water.	
  	
  	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
4Jack	
  Snyder,	
  “Perceptions	
  of	
  the	
  Security	
  Dilemma	
  in	
  1914”	
  in	
  Robert	
  Jervis,	
  Richard	
  Ned	
  Lebow	
  and	
  
Janice	
  Gross	
  (eds),	
  Psychology	
  and	
  Deterrence	
  (Baltimore:	
  The	
  John	
  Hopkins	
  University	
  Press,	
  1985),	
  
p.	
  155.	
  	
  
	
  
5For	
   a	
   concept	
   of	
   anarchy,	
   see	
   Robert	
   C.	
   Art	
   and	
   Robert	
   Jervis,	
   International	
   Politics:	
   	
   Enduring	
  
Concepts	
  and	
  Contemporary	
  Issues,	
  4th	
  edition	
  (New	
  York:	
  	
  Harper-­‐Collins	
  College	
  Publishers,	
  1996),	
  
pp.	
  1-­‐148.	
  
	
  	
  
6The	
  concept	
  of	
  security	
  dilemma	
  as	
  a	
  tragedy	
  was	
  popularized	
  by	
  Herbert	
  Butterfield.	
  	
  See	
  Herbert	
  
Butterfield,	
  History	
  and	
  Human	
  Relations	
  (London:	
  	
  Collins,	
  1951),	
  pp.	
  6-­‐20.	
  	
  
	
  
7For	
   an	
   earlier	
   account	
   of	
   security	
   dilemma	
   in	
   the	
   South	
   China	
   Sea,	
   see	
   Alan	
   Collins,	
   The	
   Security	
  
Dilemmas	
  of	
  Southeast	
  Asia	
  (Singapore:	
  	
  Institute	
  of	
  Southeast	
  Asian	
  Studies,	
  2000),	
  pp.	
  133-­‐172.	
  
  4	
  
Because	
   of	
   conflicting	
   claims	
   that	
   are	
   motivated	
   by	
   sovereignty	
   issues,	
  
claimants	
   in	
   the	
   South	
   China	
   Sea	
   continue	
   to	
   make	
   unilateral	
   moves	
   that	
   aim	
   to	
  
strengthen	
  their	
  effective	
  occupation	
  of	
  islands,	
  islets,	
  reefs,	
  cays	
  and	
  shoals	
  in	
  the	
  
area.	
   The	
   Philippines	
   and	
   China	
   are	
   motivated	
   to	
   build	
   and	
   enhance	
   their	
   naval	
  
capability	
  to	
  protect	
  their	
  respective	
  national	
  security	
  interests	
  in	
  the	
  South	
  China	
  
Sea.	
  
	
  
	
  
CHINA’S	
  NAVAL	
  STRATEGY:	
  	
  EVOLUTION	
  AND	
  CURRENT	
  STATUS	
  
	
   China	
  has	
  existing	
  naval	
  strategy	
  that	
  aims	
  to	
  regain	
  its	
  past	
  glory	
  as	
  one	
  of	
  
the	
  world’s	
  pre-­‐eminent	
  maritime	
  power.	
  At	
  the	
  opening	
  day	
  of	
  the	
  18th	
  National	
  
People’s	
   Congress	
   (NPC)	
   on	
   8	
   November	
   2012,	
   outgoing	
   President	
   Hu	
   Jintao’s	
  
stressed	
   the	
   need	
   for	
   China	
   to	
   become	
   a	
   maritime	
   power	
   in	
   order	
   to	
   “safeguard	
  
China’s	
  maritime	
  rights	
  and	
  interests.”	
  In	
  his	
  inaugural	
  address	
  as	
  China’s	
  new	
  head	
  
of	
  state,	
  President	
  Xi	
  Jinping	
  shared	
  his	
  ambitious	
  dream	
  of	
  a	
  “great	
  renaissance	
  of	
  
the	
   Chinese	
   nation”	
   that	
   includes	
   a	
   renaissance	
   of	
   China’s	
   maritime	
   power.	
   Xi’s	
  
“Chinese	
   Dream”	
   validates	
   China’s	
   long	
   standing	
   aspiration	
   to	
   reinvigorate	
   its	
  
glorious	
   history	
   as	
   the	
   world’s	
   “Middle	
   Kingdom”.	
   Xi,	
   who	
   is	
   also	
   serving	
   as	
   the	
  
Chairman	
  of	
  the	
  China’s	
  Military	
  Commission,	
  is	
  poised	
  to	
  pursue	
  China’s	
  maritime	
  
power	
   ambition,	
   particularly	
   in	
   the	
   context	
   of	
   renewed	
   security	
   tensions	
   in	
   the	
  
South	
  China	
  Sea.	
  
	
  
	
   The	
  White	
  Paper	
  on	
  China’s	
  Armed	
  Forces	
  published	
  on	
  16	
  April	
  2013	
  vividly	
  
articulates	
   China’s	
   strong	
   desire	
   to	
   develop	
   its	
   maritime	
   power	
   for	
   purposes	
   of	
  
“safeguarding	
   its	
   maritime	
   security	
   and	
   maintaining	
   its	
   sovereignty	
   over	
   its	
  
territorial	
  seas	
  along	
  with	
  its	
  maritime	
  rights	
  and	
  interests.”8	
  	
  China’s	
  most	
  updated	
  
defense	
  white	
  paper	
  admits	
  that	
  the	
  People’s	
  Liberation	
  Army	
  –	
  Navy	
  (PLAN)	
  “has	
  a	
  
total	
  strength	
  of	
  235,000	
  officers	
  and	
  men,	
  and	
  commands	
  three	
  fleets,	
  namely,	
  the	
  
Beihai	
  Fleet,	
  the	
  Donghai	
  Fleet	
  and	
  the	
  Nanhai	
  Fleet.	
  Each	
  fleet	
  has	
  fleet	
  aviation	
  
headquarters,	
  support	
  bases,	
  flotillas	
  and	
  maritime	
  garrison	
  commands,	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  
aviation	
  divisions	
  and	
  marine	
  brigades.”9	
  	
  China	
  justifies	
  its	
  maritime	
  power	
  build-­‐
up	
  because	
  of	
  the	
  following	
  reasons:	
  
	
   With	
  a	
  borderline	
  of	
  more	
  than	
  22,000	
  km	
  and	
  a	
  coastline	
  of	
  
more	
   than	
   18,000	
   km,	
   China	
   is	
   one	
   of	
   the	
   countries	
   with	
   the	
   most	
  
neighbors	
   and	
   the	
   longest	
   land	
   borders.	
   Among	
   all	
   China's	
   islands,	
  
more	
   than	
   6,500	
   are	
   larger	
   than	
   500	
   square	
   meters	
   each.	
   China's	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
	
  
8Information	
  Office	
  of	
  the	
  State	
  Council,	
  The	
  Diversified	
  Employment	
  of	
  China’s	
  Armed	
  Forces:	
  A	
  White	
  
Paper	
  on	
  China’s	
  Armed	
  Forces	
  (The	
  State	
  Council:	
  People’s	
  Republic	
  of	
  China,	
  16	
  April	
  2013).	
  
	
  
9	
  Ibid.	
  
	
  
  5	
  
island	
  coastline	
  is	
  over	
  14,000	
  km	
  long.	
  China's	
  armed	
  forces	
  defend	
  
and	
  exercise	
  jurisdiction	
  over	
  China's	
  land	
  borders	
  and	
  sea	
  areas,	
  and	
  
the	
  task	
  of	
  safeguarding	
  border	
  and	
  coastal	
  security	
  is	
  arduous	
  and	
  
complicated.10	
  
	
   Having	
   said	
   these	
   reasons,	
   China’s	
   defense	
   white	
   paper	
   urges	
   PLAN	
   to	
  
strengthen	
   maritime	
   control	
   and	
   management,	
   to	
   systematically	
   establish	
   patrol	
  
mechanisms,	
  to	
  effectively	
  enhance	
  situational	
  awareness	
  in	
  surrounding	
  sea	
  areas,	
  
to	
   tightly	
   guard	
   against	
   various	
   types	
   of	
   harassment,	
   infiltration	
   and	
   sabotage	
  
activities,	
  and	
  to	
  cope	
  promptly	
  with	
  maritime	
  and	
  air	
  incidents	
  and	
  emergencies.	
  11	
  
	
   As	
  early	
  as	
  the	
  15th	
  century,	
  in	
  fact,	
  China	
  already	
  possessed	
  a	
  naval	
  force	
  
that	
   was	
   considered	
   one	
   of	
   the	
   most	
   powerful	
   in	
   the	
   world.	
   	
   Admiral	
   Zheng	
   He	
  
(1371-­‐1433)	
  enriched	
  China’s	
  naval	
  tradition	
  through	
  his	
  historic	
  voyages.	
  	
  	
  
	
   China’s	
  current	
  naval	
  strategy	
  aims	
  to	
  address	
  its	
  maritime	
  security	
  dilemma	
  
as	
  a	
  rapidly	
  growing	
  major	
  power.	
  	
  Inspired	
  by	
  Admiral	
  Zheng’s	
  maritime	
  tradition,	
  
this	
  strategy	
  evolves	
  from	
  Mao	
  Tse	
  Tung’s	
  modern	
  dictum,	
  “Power	
  grows	
  out	
  of	
  the	
  
barrel	
   of	
   the	
   gun”.	
   	
   	
   This	
   principle	
   justifies	
   the	
   arming	
   of	
   China	
   as	
   part	
   of	
   the	
  
strengthening	
  of	
  its	
  comprehensive	
  national	
  power.	
  	
  
	
   While	
  building	
  its	
  military	
  capability	
  amidst	
  domestic	
  security	
  concerns	
  and	
  
external	
   security	
   challenges,	
   the	
   development	
   of	
   China’s	
   naval	
   strategy	
   is	
   also	
  
guided	
   by	
   the	
   mantra	
   of	
   Deng	
   Xiaoping	
   who	
   asserts,	
   “Observe	
   calmly;	
   secure	
   our	
  
position;	
  cope	
  with	
  affairs	
  calmly;	
  hide	
  our	
  capacities	
  and	
  bide	
  our	
  time;	
  be	
  good	
  at	
  
maintaining	
  low	
  profile;	
  and	
  never	
  claim	
  leadership”.	
  	
  
	
   Based	
  on	
  Mao’s	
  and	
  Deng’s	
  strategic	
  legacies,	
  China	
  has	
  crafted	
  a	
  “Blue	
  Water	
  
Naval	
  Strategy”	
  that	
  is	
  evolutionary	
  and	
  visionary.	
  	
  This	
  strategy	
  was	
  finalized	
  in	
  
1989	
  when	
  Deng	
  adopted	
  a	
  drastic	
  change	
  in	
  its	
  foreign	
  policy	
  by	
  opening	
  China	
  to	
  
the	
  world.	
  	
  This	
  naval	
  strategy	
  has	
  a	
  50-­‐year	
  grand	
  plan	
  divided	
  into	
  three	
  phases:	
  
 First	
  phase	
  2000	
  -­‐	
  the	
  PLA	
  shall	
  have	
  acquired	
  sea-­‐control	
  power	
  within	
  
its	
  coastal	
  waters.	
  
	
  
 Second	
  phase	
  2010-­2020	
  –	
  the	
  PLA	
  shall	
  have	
  achieved	
  a	
  kind	
  of	
  sea-­‐
denial	
  capability	
  within	
  its	
  first	
  island	
  chain	
  in	
  the	
  West	
  Pacific.	
  
	
  
 Third	
  phase	
  2050	
  –	
  China	
  shall	
  have	
  become	
  a	
  naval	
  power	
  capable	
  of	
  
making	
  its	
  presence	
  felt	
  globally.12	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
10
Ibid.
11
Ibid.
12You	
  Ji,	
  “China’	
  s	
  Naval	
  Strategy	
  and	
  Transformation”	
  in	
  	
  Lawrence	
  Prabhakar,	
  Joshua	
  Ho	
  and	
  Sam	
  
Bateman	
  (eds),	
  The	
  Evolving	
  Maritime	
  Balance	
  of	
  Power	
  in	
  the	
  Asia	
  Pacific	
  (2006).	
  	
  	
  
	
  
  6	
  
	
  
	
  
	
   China	
  already	
  accomplished	
  the	
  First	
  Phase	
  of	
  its	
  naval	
  capability	
  plan	
  with	
  
the	
  establishment	
  of	
  China’s	
  South	
  Sea	
  Fleet	
  covering	
  the	
  South	
  China	
  Sea	
  as	
  its	
  area	
  
of	
  responsibility.	
  	
  	
  China	
  also	
  has	
  the	
  North	
  Sea	
  Fleet	
  covering	
  the	
  Yellow	
  Sea	
  with	
  
competing	
  maritime	
  claims	
  with	
  South	
  Korea	
  and	
  the	
  East	
  Sea	
  Fleet	
  covering	
  the	
  
East	
  China	
  Sea	
  with	
  competing	
  maritime	
  claims	
  with	
  Japan.	
  
	
  
	
  
CHINA’S	
  THREE	
  FLEETS	
  
	
  
	
  
	
   Source:	
  India	
  Strategic,	
  October	
  2008.	
  
	
   	
  
	
  
	
  
	
   The	
   South	
   Sea	
   Fleet	
   in	
   the	
   South	
   China	
   Sea	
   accommodates	
   most	
   of	
   the	
  
Chinese	
  ships	
  belonging	
  to	
  two	
  major	
  maritime	
  flotillas:13	
  	
  	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
13“China	
   Maritime	
   Surveillance”,	
   Sinodefence.com	
   (14	
   March	
   2009)	
   at	
  
http://www.sinodefence.com/navy/marine-­‐surveillance/default.asp	
   <accessed	
   on	
   19	
   November	
  
2012>.	
  	
  
  7	
  
 The	
   7th	
   Maritime	
   Surveillance	
   Flotilla	
   composed	
   of	
   the	
   following	
   patrol	
  
ships:	
  
	
  
o Zhong	
  Guo	
  Hai	
  Jian	
  71	
  
o Zhong	
  Guo	
  Hai	
  Jian	
  72	
  
o Zhong	
  Guo	
  Hai	
  Jian	
  73	
  
o Zhong	
  Guo	
  Hai	
  Jian	
  74	
  
o Zhong	
  Guo	
  Hai	
  Jian	
  75	
  
	
  
 The	
   8th	
   Maritime	
   Surveillance	
   Flotilla	
   composed	
   of	
   the	
   following	
   patrol	
  
ships:	
  
	
  
o Zhong	
  Guo	
  Hai	
  Jian	
  81	
  
o Zhong	
  Guo	
  Hai	
  Jian	
  83	
  
o Zhong	
  Guo	
  Hai	
  Jian	
  84	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
CHINA	
  SOUTH	
  SEA	
  FLEET	
  
	
  
	
   Source:	
  	
  PIC.CHINAMIL.COM.CHINA,	
  2013.	
   	
  
	
   	
  
	
   	
  
	
   China	
  also	
  has	
  the	
  9th	
  Maritime	
  Surveillance	
  Flotilla	
  stationed	
  at	
  the	
  South	
  
Sea	
  Fleet.	
  	
  The	
  9th	
  Flotilla	
  has	
  The	
  Type	
  052B,	
  a	
  multirole	
  missile	
  destroyer	
  built	
  by	
  
Jiangnan	
   Shipyard	
   for	
   the	
   PLAN.14	
   The	
   destroyer	
   is	
   akin	
   to	
   the	
   Russian-­‐built	
  
Sovremenny-­‐class	
  destroyer	
  being	
  armed	
  with	
  two	
  missile	
  launchers	
  that	
  can	
  carry	
  a	
  
total	
  of	
  48	
  missiles.	
   	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
14“Type	
   052B	
   /	
   Guangzhou	
   Class	
   Destroyer,	
   China”,	
   Navaltechnology.com	
   at	
   http://www.naval-­‐
technology.com/projects/guangzhouclassdestro/	
  <accessed	
  on	
  19	
  November	
  2012>.	
  
  8	
  
	
  
	
  
SANYA	
  SUBMARINE	
  BASE	
  IN	
  HAINAN	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
   Complimenting	
   the	
   South	
   Sea	
   Fleet	
   in	
   Guangzhou	
   is	
   the	
   Sanya	
   Submarine	
  
Base	
  in	
  Hainan.	
  	
  	
  	
  This	
  submarine	
  base	
  has	
  a	
  Jin-­‐class	
  (Type	
  094)	
  nuclear	
  powered	
  
ballistic	
   missile	
   submarine	
   that	
   China	
   secretly	
   launched	
   in	
   July	
   2004	
   but	
   was	
  
publicly	
   discovered	
   via	
   Google	
   Earth	
   in	
   May	
   2007.	
   The	
  2012	
   US	
   Department	
   of	
  
Defense	
   Report	
   on	
  Chinese	
   military	
   and	
   security	
   developments	
   said	
   that	
   this	
  
submarine	
  already	
  entered	
  full	
  active	
  service	
  by	
  the	
  PLA	
  Navy.	
  
	
  
	
   China	
   is	
   currently	
   implementing	
   the	
   Second	
   Phase	
   of	
   its	
   naval	
   capability	
  
development.	
   	
   The	
   PLA	
   Navy	
   is	
   strengthening	
   its	
   submarine	
   forces	
   in	
   order	
   to	
  
achieve	
   a	
   kind	
   of	
   sea-­‐denial	
   capability	
   within	
   its	
   first	
   island	
   chain	
   in	
   the	
   West	
  
Pacific.	
  	
  China	
  has	
  acquired	
  Kilo	
  class	
  submarines	
  from	
  Russia	
  and	
  has	
  developed	
  its	
  
Song	
  class	
  and	
  Yuan	
  class	
  submarines.	
  	
  	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
  9	
  
CHINA’S	
  SUBMARINE	
  FLEET	
  
	
  
	
  
	
   Source:	
  	
  China	
  Daily,	
  February	
  2013.	
  
	
   	
  
	
  
CHINA’S	
  AIRCRAFT	
  CARRIER	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
   Source:	
  Xinhua.net,	
  May	
  2012.	
  
	
  
	
  
	
   At	
  present,	
  China	
  has	
  at	
  least	
  60	
  submarines	
  of	
  various	
  classes	
  with	
  growing	
  
stealth	
  and	
  increasing	
  firepower	
  capabilities	
  that	
  can	
  operate	
  up	
  to	
  1,000	
  nautical	
  
miles	
   from	
   its	
   coast.	
   If	
   the	
   current	
   trend	
   of	
   its	
   naval	
   capability	
   development	
  
  10	
  
continues,	
   China	
   will	
   accomplish	
   the	
   objectives	
   of	
   the	
   Second	
   Phase	
   even	
   before	
  
2020.	
  	
  	
  
	
  
	
   In	
  fact,	
  China	
  already	
  implemented	
  some	
  aspects	
  of	
  the	
  Third	
  Phase	
  with	
  the	
  
construction	
  of	
  its	
  first	
  aircraft	
  carrier	
  named	
  “Liaoning”.	
  Lessons	
  from	
  World	
  War	
  
II	
  demonstrated	
  the	
  deterrent	
  capability	
  of	
  aircraft	
  carriers.	
  	
  	
  China’s	
  participation	
  in	
  
the	
   anti-­‐piracy	
   operations	
   in	
   the	
   Gulf	
   of	
   Aden	
   was	
   also	
   a	
   litmus	
   test	
   of	
   its	
   naval	
  
ability	
   to	
   operate	
   globally.	
   	
   Thus,	
   China	
   can	
   also	
   accomplish	
   the	
   objective	
   of	
   the	
  
Third	
  Phase	
  ahead	
  of	
  schedule.	
  	
  	
  
	
  
	
  
CHINA’S	
  NAVAL	
  STRATEGY	
  AND	
  THE	
  SOUTH	
  CHINA	
  SEA	
  DISPUTES15	
  
	
  
	
   China	
  is	
  vigorously	
  implementing	
  its	
  current	
  naval	
  strategy	
  that	
  intends	
  to	
  
increase	
  its	
  naval	
  and	
  maritime	
  law	
  enforcement	
  capabilities.	
  	
  	
  This	
  strategy	
  aims	
  to	
  
protect	
   its	
   “maritime	
   defense”	
   (haifang)	
   and	
   “maritime	
   rights	
   and	
   interests”	
  
(haiyang	
  quanyi	
  or	
  haiquan)	
  in	
  the	
  South	
  China	
  Sea	
  and	
  other	
  waters	
  in	
  Asia	
  (such	
  
as	
  Senkaku/Diaoyu	
  Island	
  in	
  the	
  East	
  China	
  Sea	
  in	
  conflict	
  with	
  Japan	
  and	
  the	
  Yellow	
  
Sea	
  in	
  conflict	
  with	
  South	
  Korea).	
  	
  China	
  regards	
  these	
  waters	
  as	
  part	
  its	
  maritime	
  
territory.	
  	
  
	
   The	
  PLA	
  Navy	
  has	
  also	
  flirted	
  with	
  the	
  idea	
  of	
  a	
  new	
  type	
  of	
  naval	
  campaign	
  
in	
  the	
  South	
  China	
  Sea	
  that	
  encourages	
  “attacks	
  against	
  coral	
  islands	
  and	
  reefs”	
  (dui	
  
shanhu	
   daojiao	
   jingong	
   zhanyi).	
   	
   Naval	
   experts	
   say	
   that	
   this	
   campaign	
   scenario	
  
“appears	
  to	
  be	
  tailored	
  to	
  the	
  South	
  China	
  Sea	
  disputes	
  where	
  China	
  might	
  consider	
  
attacking	
  islands	
  and	
  reefs	
  held	
  by	
  other	
  claimants.”16	
  It	
  is	
  not	
  year	
  clear,	
  however,	
  
whether	
  this	
  idea	
  has	
  been	
  adopted	
  as	
  an	
  official	
  military	
  campaign	
  strategy	
  of	
  the	
  
PLA.	
  	
  
	
   Chinese	
   fishermen	
   in	
   the	
   South	
   China	
   Sea	
   and	
   the	
   Scarborough	
   Shoal	
   do	
  
more	
   than	
   fishing.	
   	
   These	
   fishing	
   activities	
   are	
   integral	
   aspect	
   of	
   China’s	
  
implementation	
  of	
  its	
  naval	
  strategy.	
  	
  Fishing	
  expeditions	
  	
  “are	
  civilian	
  instruments	
  
of	
  power	
  that	
  help	
  stake	
  out	
  legal	
  claims	
  and	
  establish	
  national	
  maritime	
  rights.”17	
  	
  	
  
	
   Thus,	
   the	
   Chinese	
   government	
   protects	
   their	
   fishermen	
   to	
   promote	
   its	
  
concept	
  of	
  maritime	
  rights	
  and	
  stake	
  out	
  its	
  legal	
  maritime	
  claims.	
  	
  China’s	
  current	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
15	
  This	
  section	
  is	
  based	
  in	
  Rommel	
  C.	
  Banlaoi,	
  “Position	
  on	
  the	
  Scarborough	
  Shoal”	
  (Delivered	
  at	
  the	
  
public	
  hearing	
  of	
  the	
  Committee	
  on	
  Foreign	
  Relations,	
  the	
  Philippine	
  Senate,	
  27	
  April	
  2012).	
  
	
  
16Phillip	
  C.	
  Saunder,	
  Christopher	
  Yung,	
  Michael	
  Swane	
  and	
  Andrew	
  Nien-­‐Dzu	
  Yang,	
  eds.,	
  The	
  Chinese	
  
Navy:	
   	
   Expanding	
   Capabilities,	
   Evolving	
   Roles	
   (Washington	
   DC:	
   Center	
   for	
   the	
   Study	
   of	
   Chinese	
  
Military	
   Affairs	
   at	
   the	
   Institute	
   for	
   National	
   Strategic	
   Studies	
   of	
   the	
   National	
   Defense	
   University,	
  
2011),	
  p.	
  50.	
  	
  
	
  
17Patrick	
  M.	
  Cronin,	
  ed.,	
  Cooperation	
  from	
  Strength:	
  The	
  United	
  States,	
  China	
  and	
  the	
  South	
  China	
  Sea	
  
(Washington,	
  D.C.:	
  Center	
  for	
  a	
  New	
  American	
  Security,	
  January	
  2012),	
  p.	
  2.	
  
  11	
  
behavior	
   in	
   the	
   Scarborough	
   Shoal	
   is	
   part	
   of	
   this	
   overall	
   power	
   projection.	
  	
  
According	
  to	
  a	
  report:	
  	
  	
  
Chinese	
   officials	
   are	
   deliberately	
   using	
   civilian	
   maritime	
   law-­‐
enforcement	
   vessels,	
   rather	
   than	
   the	
   People’s	
   Liberation	
   Army	
  
Navy—to	
  enforce	
  China’s	
  maritime	
  rights	
  and	
  fishing	
  laws.	
  Whereas	
  
China	
   resorted	
   to	
   using	
   warships	
   over	
   Mischief	
   Reef	
   territorial	
  
disputes	
   in	
   the	
   1990s,	
   the	
   recent	
   assertiveness	
   of	
   China	
   in	
   these	
  
waters	
   has	
   been	
   prosecuted	
   largely	
   with	
   civilian	
   instruments	
   of	
  
power.18	
  
	
  
MARITIME	
  SECURITY	
  DILEMMA	
  IN	
  PHILIPPINES-­CHINA	
  RELATIONS	
  
	
   The	
  rise	
  of	
  China’s	
  maritime	
  power	
  in	
  the	
  South	
  China	
  Sea	
  exacerbates	
  the	
  
maritime	
  security	
  dilemma	
  in	
  Philippines-­‐China	
  relations.	
  	
  For	
  the	
  Philippines,	
  the	
  
implementation	
  of	
  China’s	
  naval	
  strategy	
  in	
  the	
  South	
  China	
  Sea	
  is	
  offensive	
  and	
  is	
  
very	
   threatening.	
   	
   Its	
   deployment	
   around	
   the	
   South	
   China	
   Sea	
   of	
   China	
   Maritime	
  
Surveillance	
   (CMS)	
   vessels	
   with	
   maritime	
   defense	
   capabilities	
   is	
   flexing	
   China’s	
  
military	
  muscles.	
  	
  	
  For	
  China	
  however,	
  its	
  deployment	
  of	
  CMS	
  vessels	
  in	
  the	
  South	
  
China	
   is	
   part	
   of	
   its	
   sovereign	
   right	
   to	
   patrol	
   its	
   territorial	
   waters	
   for	
   defensive	
  
purposes.	
  	
  In	
  fact,	
  China	
  accuses	
  the	
  Philippines	
  for	
  its	
  “illegal	
  occupation”	
  of	
  China’s	
  
territories	
  in	
  the	
  South	
  China	
  Sea.	
  
	
   Since	
   the	
   Philippine	
   government	
   does	
   not	
   have	
   the	
   maritime	
   capability	
   to	
  
match	
   China’s	
   actions	
   in	
   the	
   South	
   China	
   Sea,	
   Manila	
   resorted	
   to	
   international	
  
arbitration	
   process	
   to	
   peacefully	
   settle	
   its	
   maritime	
   disputes	
   with	
   Beijing.	
   On	
   22	
  
January	
  2013,	
  the	
  Philippine	
  Department	
  of	
  Foreign	
  Affairs	
  (DFA)	
  took	
  its	
  maritime	
  
claims	
  in	
  the	
  South	
  China	
  Sea	
  before	
  the	
  Arbitral	
  Tribunal	
  under	
  Article	
  287	
  and	
  
Annex	
  VII	
  of	
  the	
  1982	
  United	
  Nations	
  Convention	
  on	
  the	
  Law	
  of	
  the	
  Sea	
  (UNCLOS).	
  	
  	
  
	
   The	
  DFA	
  also	
  sent	
  a	
  Note	
  Verbale	
  to	
  Chinese	
  Ambassador	
  to	
  the	
  Philippines,	
  
Ma	
  Keging.	
  The	
  Note	
  Verbale	
  contained	
  the	
  21-­‐page	
  Notification	
  and	
  Statement	
  of	
  
Claim	
  it	
  submitted	
  for	
  international	
  arbitration.	
  The	
  salient	
  points	
  in	
  the	
  Notification	
  
and	
  Statement	
  of	
  Claim	
  are	
  the	
  following:	
  
1. The	
   Philippines	
   asserts	
   that	
   China’s	
   so-­‐called	
   nine-­‐dash	
   line	
   claim	
   that	
  
encompasses	
   virtually	
   the	
   entire	
   South	
   China	
   Sea/West	
   Philippine	
   Sea	
   is	
  
contrary	
  to	
  UNCLOS	
  and	
  thus	
  unlawful.	
  
2. Within	
  the	
  maritime	
  area	
  encompassed	
  by	
  the	
  9-­‐dash	
  line,	
  China	
  has	
  also	
  laid	
  
claim	
   to,	
   occupied	
   and	
   built	
   structures	
   on	
   certain	
   submerged	
   banks,	
   reefs	
  
and	
  low	
  tide	
  elevations	
  that	
  do	
  not	
  qualify	
  as	
  islands	
  under	
  UNCLOS,	
  but	
  are	
  
parts	
   of	
   the	
   Philippine	
   continental	
   shelf,	
   or	
   the	
   international	
   seabed.	
  	
  	
   In	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
18Ibid.,	
  p.	
  3.	
  	
  
	
  
  12	
  
addition,	
   China	
   has	
   occupied	
   certain	
   small,	
   uninhabitable	
   coral	
   projections	
  
that	
  are	
  barely	
  above	
  water	
  at	
  high	
  tide,	
  and	
  which	
  are	
  “rocks”	
  under	
  Article	
  
121	
  (3)	
  of	
  UNCLOS.	
  
3. China	
  has	
  interfered	
  with	
  the	
  lawful	
  exercise	
  by	
  the	
  Philippines	
  of	
  its	
  rights	
  
within	
   its	
   legitimate	
   maritime	
   zones,	
   as	
   well	
   as	
   to	
   the	
   aforementioned	
  
features	
  and	
  their	
  surrounding	
  waters.	
  
4. The	
  Philippines	
  is	
  conscious	
  of	
  China’s	
  Declaration	
  of	
  August	
  25,	
  2006	
  under	
  
Article	
   298	
   of	
   UNCLOS	
   (regarding	
   optional	
   exceptions	
   to	
   the	
   compulsory	
  
proceedings),	
  and	
  has	
  avoided	
  raising	
  subjects	
  or	
  making	
  claims	
  that	
  China	
  
has,	
  by	
  virtue	
  of	
  that	
  Declaration,	
  excluded	
  from	
  arbitral	
  jurisdiction.	
  
	
   Though	
   the	
   Philippines	
   also	
   have	
   the	
   intention	
   to	
   develop	
   a	
   “minimum	
  
credible	
   defense	
   force”,	
   international	
   legal	
   measure	
   is	
   its	
   immediate	
   option	
   to	
  
advance	
  its	
  outstanding	
  maritime	
  claims	
  in	
  the	
  South	
  China	
  Sea.	
  	
  	
  	
  
	
   China,	
  however,	
  prefers	
  direct	
  bilateral	
  negotiations.	
  	
  Beijing	
  rejects	
  Manila’s	
  
option	
  to	
  internationalize	
  the	
  South	
  China	
  Sea	
  dispute.	
  Meanwhile,	
  Beijing	
  continues	
  
to	
  implement	
  its	
  maritime	
  patrols	
  in	
  the	
  disputed	
  waters	
  of	
  the	
  South	
  China	
  Sea	
  to	
  
assert	
  its	
  sovereignty	
  claims.	
  
	
   	
  
CONCLUSION	
  
	
   The	
  Philippines	
  and	
  China	
  are	
  trapped	
  in	
  a	
  maritime	
  security	
  dilemma	
  in	
  the	
  
South	
   China	
   Sea	
   because	
   of	
   various	
   security	
   uncertainties	
   posed	
   by	
   the	
   rise	
   of	
  
China’s	
  maritime	
  power.	
  Both	
  countries’	
  perception	
  of	
  security	
  uncertainties,	
  in	
  fact,	
  
drives	
   their	
   maritime	
   security	
   dilemma.	
   	
   This	
   maritime	
   security	
   dilemma	
   puts	
  
Philippines-­‐China	
  security	
  relations	
  in	
  a	
  situation	
  of	
  enmity	
  rather	
  than	
  amity.	
  
	
   But	
  there	
  is	
  a	
  way	
  to	
  overcome	
  the	
  maritime	
  security	
  dilemma.	
  	
  Most	
  experts	
  
in	
  international	
  relations	
  agree	
  that	
  the	
  way	
  out	
  of	
  the	
  security	
  dilemma	
  is	
  through	
  
peaceful	
   and	
   open	
   communication.	
   	
   	
   Though	
   this	
   is	
   easier	
   said	
   than	
   done,	
  
communication	
  is	
  essential	
  to	
  build	
  confidence	
  and	
  trust	
  amidst	
  the	
  uncertainties	
  in	
  
the	
  security	
  environment.	
  	
  	
  	
  
	
   If	
  the	
  Philippines	
  and	
  China	
  can	
  communicate	
  effectively	
  that	
  their	
  intentions	
  
are	
  benign	
  to	
  each	
  other,	
  their	
  maritime	
  security	
  dilemma	
  in	
  the	
  South	
  China	
  Sea	
  
may	
  be	
  overcome.	
  	
  Thus,	
  both	
  countries	
  have	
  to	
  exert	
  their	
  best	
  efforts	
  to	
  open	
  all	
  
possible	
  channels	
  of	
  communication	
  to	
  ameliorate	
  their	
  maritime	
  security	
  dilemma.	
  	
  	
  
	
   The	
   Philippines	
   and	
   China	
   are	
   friendly	
   neighbors.	
   	
   Their	
   long-­‐standing	
  
friendship	
   dates	
   back	
   to	
   many	
   centuries	
   of	
   peaceful	
   co-­‐existence	
   and	
   good	
  
neighborliness.	
  	
  	
  
	
   However,	
  the	
  complex	
  territorial	
  conflict	
  in	
  the	
  South	
  China	
  Sea	
  has	
  affected	
  
the	
  further	
  blossoming	
  of	
  their	
  friendship.	
  The	
  South	
  China	
  Sea	
  conflict	
  punctuated	
  
  13	
  
by	
   China’s	
   implementation	
   of	
   its	
   naval	
   strategy	
   exacerbates	
   the	
   two	
   countries’	
  
maritime	
  security	
  dilemma.	
  	
  	
  
	
   At	
   present,	
   Philippines-­‐China	
   relations	
   are	
   sour.	
   Their	
   bilateral	
   ties	
   have	
  
reached	
   its	
   lowest	
   point.	
   	
   But	
   the	
   Philippines	
   and	
   China	
   can	
   escape	
   or	
   transcend	
  
their	
  maritime	
  security	
  dilemma	
  in	
  the	
  South	
  China	
  Sea	
  if	
  they	
  will	
  open	
  all	
  possible	
  
channels	
  of	
  peaceful	
  communication	
  through	
  more	
  friendly	
  exchanges.	
  
	
   The	
  South	
  China	
  Sea	
  dispute	
  is	
  just	
  one	
  aspect	
  of	
  Philippines-­‐China	
  relations.	
  	
  	
  
Both	
  countries	
  have	
  to	
  exert	
  efforts	
  to	
  prevent	
  the	
  South	
  China	
  Sea	
  dispute	
  to	
  affect	
  
the	
   over-­‐all	
   improvement	
   of	
   their	
   comprehensive	
   bilateral	
   ties.	
   	
   The	
   South	
   China	
  
Sea,	
  in	
  fact,	
  can	
  be	
  the	
  sea	
  the	
  can	
  unite	
  rather	
  than	
  divide	
  the	
  Philippines	
  and	
  China.	
  

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The Rise of China's Maritime Power in the South China Sea: Maritime Security Dilemma in Philippines-China Relations

  • 1.   1   THE  RISE  OF  CHINA’S  MARITIME  POWER  IN  THE  SOUTH   CHINA  SEA:    MARITIME  SECURITY  DILEMMA     IN  PHILIPPINES-­CHINA  RELATIONS*     Rommel  C.  Banlaoi**     Abstract       Though   the   Philippines   and   China   have   declared   2012   and   2013   as   years   of   friendly   exchanges   between   the   two   countries,   they   are   currently   at   odd   with   each   other   due   to   the   continuing   sovereignty   disputes   in   the   South   China   Sea.   China’s   growing   maritime   power   as   a   result   of   the   implementation   of   its   current   naval   strategy  creates  security  anxieties  in  the  Philippines.    These  security  anxieties  affect   the  present  dynamics  in  Philippines-­China  relations.        In  the  context  of  the  South  China   Sea  Disputes,  the  Philippines  and  China  are  now  suffering  a  security  dilemma,  a  tragic   situation  that  creates  enmity  rather  than  amity  in  their  relations.  With  their  security   dilemma,   the   Philippines   and   China   are   presently   trapped   in   a   “guessing   game”   situation  trying  to  speculate  on  each  other’s  strategic  intention  whether  it  is  benign  or   malign.   Finding   ways   to   ameliorate   this   security   dilemma   is   essential   for   both   countries   to   promote   cooperation   rather   than   competition   in   their   overall   relationship.       INTRODUCTION       Since   the   10th   century,   the   Philippines   and   China   have   enjoyed   very   close,   peaceful  and  friendly  relations.    But  the  start  of  the  21st  century  puts  their  friendly   relations  in  a  very  challenging  situation  because  of  their  existing  differences  on  how   to  peacefully  resolve  their  territorial  disputes  in  the  South  China  Sea.       During  the  official  state  visit  of  President  Benigno  Simeon  Aquino  III  to  China   on  31  August  2011,  both  countries  declared  “2012-­‐2013”  as  the  “Philippines-­‐China   Years  of  Friendly  Exchanges”.  1    However,  the  standoff  in  the  Scarborough  Shoal  that   started   on   10   April   2012   and   their   continuing   disagreements   on   how   peacefully   solve   the   South   China   Sea   problem   prevented   both   countries   to   implement   their                                                                                                                   *Paper   based   on   the   lecture   presented   at   the   Seminar   on   the   Rise   of   China   as   Global   Power:   Its   Impact  on  Asia  Pacific,  Bacobo  Hall,  University  of  the  Philippines  College  of  Law,  4  July  2013.    This   paper  is  also  culled  from  the  paper  presented  by  the  author  at  the  Ricardo  Leong  Center  for  China   Studies,  Ateneo  de  Manila  University  on  26  July  2012.     **The  author  is  the  Vice  President  of  the  Philippine  Association  for  China  Studies  (PACS)  and  a  Senior   Lecturer   at   the   Department   of   International   Studies,   Miriam   College.     He   is   also   the   Executive   Director  of  the  Philippine  Institute  for  Peace,  Violence  and  Terrorism  Research  (PIPVTR).       1  For  detailed  discussions,  see  Rommel  C.  Banlaoi,  Philippines-­China  Security  Relations:  Current  Issues   and  Emerging  Concerns  (Manila:  Yuchengco  Center,  2012),  pp.  175-­‐177.  
  • 2.   2   friendly  exchanges.  Instead,  the  two  countries  exchanged  diplomatic  protests  and   even  harsh  media  commentaries  against  each  other  putting  their  bilateral  relations   in  a  very  sour  state  during  the  whole  year  of  2012.    For  the  year  2013,  there  has   been  an  attempt  to  renew  their  friendly  exchanges  by  setting  aside  their  sovereignty   claims  in  order  to  deescalate  existing  territorial  conflicts  in  the  South  China  Sea.           However,  China’s  already  grown  maritime  power  resulting  from  the  decisive   implementation  of  its  current  naval  strategy  in  the  South  China  Sea  makes  it  utterly   difficult  for  the  Philippines  to  just  sweep  the  South  China  Sea  issue  under  the  rug.       The   Philippines   wants   an   immediate   peaceful   resolution   of   the   South   China   Sea   dispute  because  of  its  urgent  need  to  develop  the  resources  in  its  maritime  domain   for  its  national  economic  development.       For   China,   on   the   other   hand,   the   South   China   Sea   is   also   important   for   economic,  political  and  strategic  reasons.    Security  concerns  in  the  South  China  Sea   affect   China’s   core   interests   that   define   its   foreign   relations   with   other   countries.     Though   China   has   a   strong   willingness   to   shelve   sovereignty   issues   in   the   South   China  Sea,  there  is  a  domestic  pressure  in  China  to  use  its  present  maritime  power   in  order  to  protect  the  country’s  national  interests  in  this  disputed  body  of  waters.       This  paper  argues  that  the  rise  of  China’s  maritime  power  resulting  from  the   implementation   of   its   naval   strategy   in   the   South   China   Sea   poses   a   maritime   security  dilemma  in  Philippines-­‐China  relations.    Overcoming  this  maritime  security   dilemma  is  essential  to  improve  the  current  state  in  their  bilateral  ties.       SECURITY  DILEMMA:    A  FRAMEWORK  OF  ANALYSIS2           Security  dilemma  is  an  excellent  framework  to  analyze  the  present  dynamics   in   Philippines-­‐China   security   relations,   particularly   in   the   context   of   China’s   implementation   of   its   naval   strategy   in   the   South   China   Sea.   Security   dilemma   inevitably  exists  when  military  preparations  of  one  state  unnecessarily  create  an  un-­‐ resolvable   uncertainty   in   the   mind   of   another   state   as   to   whether   those   preparations  are  for  “defensive”  or  “offensive”  purposes.3         With  the  general  concept  of  security  dilemma,  the  Philippines  and  China  are   inevitably  trapped  in  a  difficult  “guessing  game”  situation  where  they  desperately                                                                                                                   2I  also  used  this  framework  in  my  analysis  of  renewed  tensions  in  the  South  China  Sea.  See  Rommel  C.   Banlaoi,  “Renewed  Tensions  and  Continuing  Maritime  Security  Dilemma  in  the  South  China  Sea”  in   Tran   Trough   Thuy,   ed.,   The   South   China   Sea:     Cooperation   for   Regional   Security   and   Development     (Hanoi:    Diplomatic  Academy  of  Vietnam,  2010),  pp.  143-­‐159.     3Nicholas  J.  Wheeler  and  Ken  Booth,  “The  Security  Dilemma”  in  John  Baylis  and  N.J.  Rennger  (eds),   Dilemmas  of  World  Politics:    International  Issues  in  Changing  World  (Oxford:    Clarendon  Press,  1992),   pp.  29-­‐60.      
  • 3.   3   speculate  on  each  other’s  strategic  intention  whether  it  is  benign  or  malign.    States   perceptions   of   security   dilemma   create   a   great   paradox   in   which   states   arguably   believe  that  their  security  requires  the  unintended  insecurities  of  others.4       This   very   difficult   situation   undesirably   occurs   because   of   the   anarchic   nature  of  international  system  where  there  is  the  utter  absence  of  an  overarching   central  authority  that  can  effectively  regulate  and  even  tame  the  behavior  of  self-­‐ seeking  sovereign  states  whose  preoccupation  is  self-­‐preservation  and  survival.         In   an   anarchic   international   environment,   states   constantly   compete   with   one  another  to  protect  their  highly  cherished  sovereignty  and  to  pursue  their  deeply   valued   national   interests.5     Though   the   state   of   anarchy   can   also   encourage   and   motivate   states   to   cooperate   by   building   international   regimes   or   constructing   international   norms   necessary   for   international   stability,   mutual   suspicions   arguably  continue  to  define  the  reality  of  international  politics.       These   mutual   suspicions   create   an   “action-­‐reaction”   dynamics   that   breed   more  feelings  of  insecurities.  No  matter  how  states  convince  their  neighbors  that   they   are   benign,   mutual   suspicions   unleash   a   sinister   perspective   that   a   benign   status  can  change  to  a  malign  situation.      This  undesirable  malign  condition  creates   enmity  rather  than  amity  between  states.     Thus,  security  dilemma  is  a  great  tragedy  because  small  armed  conflicts  or  a   full-­‐scale  war  can  possibly  occur  between  and  among  states  though  none  of  them   actually  desire  such  an  unintended  tragic  outcome.6    Because  each  state  is  mandated   to  pursue  its  own  national  interests,  security  uncertainties  pervade  in  the  relations   among   states.   These   uncertainties   also   create   security   anxieties   that   in   turn   exacerbate  the  security  dilemma.       The   principle   of   security   dilemma   can   describe   the   present   complex   dynamics   of   Philippines-­‐China   relations   in   the   South   China   Sea.7     The   Philippines   and   China   (as   well   as   other   claimants)   are   strongly   driven   by   their   desire   to   vigorously  protect  their  territorial  integrity  and  advance  their  national  sovereignty   in  this  highly  contested  body  of  water.                                                                                                                       4Jack  Snyder,  “Perceptions  of  the  Security  Dilemma  in  1914”  in  Robert  Jervis,  Richard  Ned  Lebow  and   Janice  Gross  (eds),  Psychology  and  Deterrence  (Baltimore:  The  John  Hopkins  University  Press,  1985),   p.  155.       5For   a   concept   of   anarchy,   see   Robert   C.   Art   and   Robert   Jervis,   International   Politics:     Enduring   Concepts  and  Contemporary  Issues,  4th  edition  (New  York:    Harper-­‐Collins  College  Publishers,  1996),   pp.  1-­‐148.       6The  concept  of  security  dilemma  as  a  tragedy  was  popularized  by  Herbert  Butterfield.    See  Herbert   Butterfield,  History  and  Human  Relations  (London:    Collins,  1951),  pp.  6-­‐20.       7For   an   earlier   account   of   security   dilemma   in   the   South   China   Sea,   see   Alan   Collins,   The   Security   Dilemmas  of  Southeast  Asia  (Singapore:    Institute  of  Southeast  Asian  Studies,  2000),  pp.  133-­‐172.  
  • 4.   4   Because   of   conflicting   claims   that   are   motivated   by   sovereignty   issues,   claimants   in   the   South   China   Sea   continue   to   make   unilateral   moves   that   aim   to   strengthen  their  effective  occupation  of  islands,  islets,  reefs,  cays  and  shoals  in  the   area.   The   Philippines   and   China   are   motivated   to   build   and   enhance   their   naval   capability  to  protect  their  respective  national  security  interests  in  the  South  China   Sea.       CHINA’S  NAVAL  STRATEGY:    EVOLUTION  AND  CURRENT  STATUS     China  has  existing  naval  strategy  that  aims  to  regain  its  past  glory  as  one  of   the  world’s  pre-­‐eminent  maritime  power.  At  the  opening  day  of  the  18th  National   People’s   Congress   (NPC)   on   8   November   2012,   outgoing   President   Hu   Jintao’s   stressed   the   need   for   China   to   become   a   maritime   power   in   order   to   “safeguard   China’s  maritime  rights  and  interests.”  In  his  inaugural  address  as  China’s  new  head   of  state,  President  Xi  Jinping  shared  his  ambitious  dream  of  a  “great  renaissance  of   the   Chinese   nation”   that   includes   a   renaissance   of   China’s   maritime   power.   Xi’s   “Chinese   Dream”   validates   China’s   long   standing   aspiration   to   reinvigorate   its   glorious   history   as   the   world’s   “Middle   Kingdom”.   Xi,   who   is   also   serving   as   the   Chairman  of  the  China’s  Military  Commission,  is  poised  to  pursue  China’s  maritime   power   ambition,   particularly   in   the   context   of   renewed   security   tensions   in   the   South  China  Sea.       The  White  Paper  on  China’s  Armed  Forces  published  on  16  April  2013  vividly   articulates   China’s   strong   desire   to   develop   its   maritime   power   for   purposes   of   “safeguarding   its   maritime   security   and   maintaining   its   sovereignty   over   its   territorial  seas  along  with  its  maritime  rights  and  interests.”8    China’s  most  updated   defense  white  paper  admits  that  the  People’s  Liberation  Army  –  Navy  (PLAN)  “has  a   total  strength  of  235,000  officers  and  men,  and  commands  three  fleets,  namely,  the   Beihai  Fleet,  the  Donghai  Fleet  and  the  Nanhai  Fleet.  Each  fleet  has  fleet  aviation   headquarters,  support  bases,  flotillas  and  maritime  garrison  commands,  as  well  as   aviation  divisions  and  marine  brigades.”9    China  justifies  its  maritime  power  build-­‐ up  because  of  the  following  reasons:     With  a  borderline  of  more  than  22,000  km  and  a  coastline  of   more   than   18,000   km,   China   is   one   of   the   countries   with   the   most   neighbors   and   the   longest   land   borders.   Among   all   China's   islands,   more   than   6,500   are   larger   than   500   square   meters   each.   China's                                                                                                                     8Information  Office  of  the  State  Council,  The  Diversified  Employment  of  China’s  Armed  Forces:  A  White   Paper  on  China’s  Armed  Forces  (The  State  Council:  People’s  Republic  of  China,  16  April  2013).     9  Ibid.    
  • 5.   5   island  coastline  is  over  14,000  km  long.  China's  armed  forces  defend   and  exercise  jurisdiction  over  China's  land  borders  and  sea  areas,  and   the  task  of  safeguarding  border  and  coastal  security  is  arduous  and   complicated.10     Having   said   these   reasons,   China’s   defense   white   paper   urges   PLAN   to   strengthen   maritime   control   and   management,   to   systematically   establish   patrol   mechanisms,  to  effectively  enhance  situational  awareness  in  surrounding  sea  areas,   to   tightly   guard   against   various   types   of   harassment,   infiltration   and   sabotage   activities,  and  to  cope  promptly  with  maritime  and  air  incidents  and  emergencies.  11     As  early  as  the  15th  century,  in  fact,  China  already  possessed  a  naval  force   that   was   considered   one   of   the   most   powerful   in   the   world.     Admiral   Zheng   He   (1371-­‐1433)  enriched  China’s  naval  tradition  through  his  historic  voyages.         China’s  current  naval  strategy  aims  to  address  its  maritime  security  dilemma   as  a  rapidly  growing  major  power.    Inspired  by  Admiral  Zheng’s  maritime  tradition,   this  strategy  evolves  from  Mao  Tse  Tung’s  modern  dictum,  “Power  grows  out  of  the   barrel   of   the   gun”.       This   principle   justifies   the   arming   of   China   as   part   of   the   strengthening  of  its  comprehensive  national  power.       While  building  its  military  capability  amidst  domestic  security  concerns  and   external   security   challenges,   the   development   of   China’s   naval   strategy   is   also   guided   by   the   mantra   of   Deng   Xiaoping   who   asserts,   “Observe   calmly;   secure   our   position;  cope  with  affairs  calmly;  hide  our  capacities  and  bide  our  time;  be  good  at   maintaining  low  profile;  and  never  claim  leadership”.       Based  on  Mao’s  and  Deng’s  strategic  legacies,  China  has  crafted  a  “Blue  Water   Naval  Strategy”  that  is  evolutionary  and  visionary.    This  strategy  was  finalized  in   1989  when  Deng  adopted  a  drastic  change  in  its  foreign  policy  by  opening  China  to   the  world.    This  naval  strategy  has  a  50-­‐year  grand  plan  divided  into  three  phases:    First  phase  2000  -­‐  the  PLA  shall  have  acquired  sea-­‐control  power  within   its  coastal  waters.      Second  phase  2010-­2020  –  the  PLA  shall  have  achieved  a  kind  of  sea-­‐ denial  capability  within  its  first  island  chain  in  the  West  Pacific.      Third  phase  2050  –  China  shall  have  become  a  naval  power  capable  of   making  its  presence  felt  globally.12                                                                                                                   10 Ibid. 11 Ibid. 12You  Ji,  “China’  s  Naval  Strategy  and  Transformation”  in    Lawrence  Prabhakar,  Joshua  Ho  and  Sam   Bateman  (eds),  The  Evolving  Maritime  Balance  of  Power  in  the  Asia  Pacific  (2006).        
  • 6.   6         China  already  accomplished  the  First  Phase  of  its  naval  capability  plan  with   the  establishment  of  China’s  South  Sea  Fleet  covering  the  South  China  Sea  as  its  area   of  responsibility.      China  also  has  the  North  Sea  Fleet  covering  the  Yellow  Sea  with   competing  maritime  claims  with  South  Korea  and  the  East  Sea  Fleet  covering  the   East  China  Sea  with  competing  maritime  claims  with  Japan.       CHINA’S  THREE  FLEETS         Source:  India  Strategic,  October  2008.             The   South   Sea   Fleet   in   the   South   China   Sea   accommodates   most   of   the   Chinese  ships  belonging  to  two  major  maritime  flotillas:13                                                                                                                                     13“China   Maritime   Surveillance”,   Sinodefence.com   (14   March   2009)   at   http://www.sinodefence.com/navy/marine-­‐surveillance/default.asp   <accessed   on   19   November   2012>.    
  • 7.   7    The   7th   Maritime   Surveillance   Flotilla   composed   of   the   following   patrol   ships:     o Zhong  Guo  Hai  Jian  71   o Zhong  Guo  Hai  Jian  72   o Zhong  Guo  Hai  Jian  73   o Zhong  Guo  Hai  Jian  74   o Zhong  Guo  Hai  Jian  75      The   8th   Maritime   Surveillance   Flotilla   composed   of   the   following   patrol   ships:     o Zhong  Guo  Hai  Jian  81   o Zhong  Guo  Hai  Jian  83   o Zhong  Guo  Hai  Jian  84         CHINA  SOUTH  SEA  FLEET       Source:    PIC.CHINAMIL.COM.CHINA,  2013.               China  also  has  the  9th  Maritime  Surveillance  Flotilla  stationed  at  the  South   Sea  Fleet.    The  9th  Flotilla  has  The  Type  052B,  a  multirole  missile  destroyer  built  by   Jiangnan   Shipyard   for   the   PLAN.14   The   destroyer   is   akin   to   the   Russian-­‐built   Sovremenny-­‐class  destroyer  being  armed  with  two  missile  launchers  that  can  carry  a   total  of  48  missiles.                                                                                                                     14“Type   052B   /   Guangzhou   Class   Destroyer,   China”,   Navaltechnology.com   at   http://www.naval-­‐ technology.com/projects/guangzhouclassdestro/  <accessed  on  19  November  2012>.  
  • 8.   8       SANYA  SUBMARINE  BASE  IN  HAINAN           Complimenting   the   South   Sea   Fleet   in   Guangzhou   is   the   Sanya   Submarine   Base  in  Hainan.        This  submarine  base  has  a  Jin-­‐class  (Type  094)  nuclear  powered   ballistic   missile   submarine   that   China   secretly   launched   in   July   2004   but   was   publicly   discovered   via   Google   Earth   in   May   2007.   The  2012   US   Department   of   Defense   Report   on  Chinese   military   and   security   developments   said   that   this   submarine  already  entered  full  active  service  by  the  PLA  Navy.       China   is   currently   implementing   the   Second   Phase   of   its   naval   capability   development.     The   PLA   Navy   is   strengthening   its   submarine   forces   in   order   to   achieve   a   kind   of   sea-­‐denial   capability   within   its   first   island   chain   in   the   West   Pacific.    China  has  acquired  Kilo  class  submarines  from  Russia  and  has  developed  its   Song  class  and  Yuan  class  submarines.                    
  • 9.   9   CHINA’S  SUBMARINE  FLEET         Source:    China  Daily,  February  2013.         CHINA’S  AIRCRAFT  CARRIER           Source:  Xinhua.net,  May  2012.         At  present,  China  has  at  least  60  submarines  of  various  classes  with  growing   stealth  and  increasing  firepower  capabilities  that  can  operate  up  to  1,000  nautical   miles   from   its   coast.   If   the   current   trend   of   its   naval   capability   development  
  • 10.   10   continues,   China   will   accomplish   the   objectives   of   the   Second   Phase   even   before   2020.           In  fact,  China  already  implemented  some  aspects  of  the  Third  Phase  with  the   construction  of  its  first  aircraft  carrier  named  “Liaoning”.  Lessons  from  World  War   II  demonstrated  the  deterrent  capability  of  aircraft  carriers.      China’s  participation  in   the   anti-­‐piracy   operations   in   the   Gulf   of   Aden   was   also   a   litmus   test   of   its   naval   ability   to   operate   globally.     Thus,   China   can   also   accomplish   the   objective   of   the   Third  Phase  ahead  of  schedule.           CHINA’S  NAVAL  STRATEGY  AND  THE  SOUTH  CHINA  SEA  DISPUTES15       China  is  vigorously  implementing  its  current  naval  strategy  that  intends  to   increase  its  naval  and  maritime  law  enforcement  capabilities.      This  strategy  aims  to   protect   its   “maritime   defense”   (haifang)   and   “maritime   rights   and   interests”   (haiyang  quanyi  or  haiquan)  in  the  South  China  Sea  and  other  waters  in  Asia  (such   as  Senkaku/Diaoyu  Island  in  the  East  China  Sea  in  conflict  with  Japan  and  the  Yellow   Sea  in  conflict  with  South  Korea).    China  regards  these  waters  as  part  its  maritime   territory.       The  PLA  Navy  has  also  flirted  with  the  idea  of  a  new  type  of  naval  campaign   in  the  South  China  Sea  that  encourages  “attacks  against  coral  islands  and  reefs”  (dui   shanhu   daojiao   jingong   zhanyi).     Naval   experts   say   that   this   campaign   scenario   “appears  to  be  tailored  to  the  South  China  Sea  disputes  where  China  might  consider   attacking  islands  and  reefs  held  by  other  claimants.”16  It  is  not  year  clear,  however,   whether  this  idea  has  been  adopted  as  an  official  military  campaign  strategy  of  the   PLA.       Chinese   fishermen   in   the   South   China   Sea   and   the   Scarborough   Shoal   do   more   than   fishing.     These   fishing   activities   are   integral   aspect   of   China’s   implementation  of  its  naval  strategy.    Fishing  expeditions    “are  civilian  instruments   of  power  that  help  stake  out  legal  claims  and  establish  national  maritime  rights.”17         Thus,   the   Chinese   government   protects   their   fishermen   to   promote   its   concept  of  maritime  rights  and  stake  out  its  legal  maritime  claims.    China’s  current                                                                                                                   15  This  section  is  based  in  Rommel  C.  Banlaoi,  “Position  on  the  Scarborough  Shoal”  (Delivered  at  the   public  hearing  of  the  Committee  on  Foreign  Relations,  the  Philippine  Senate,  27  April  2012).     16Phillip  C.  Saunder,  Christopher  Yung,  Michael  Swane  and  Andrew  Nien-­‐Dzu  Yang,  eds.,  The  Chinese   Navy:     Expanding   Capabilities,   Evolving   Roles   (Washington   DC:   Center   for   the   Study   of   Chinese   Military   Affairs   at   the   Institute   for   National   Strategic   Studies   of   the   National   Defense   University,   2011),  p.  50.       17Patrick  M.  Cronin,  ed.,  Cooperation  from  Strength:  The  United  States,  China  and  the  South  China  Sea   (Washington,  D.C.:  Center  for  a  New  American  Security,  January  2012),  p.  2.  
  • 11.   11   behavior   in   the   Scarborough   Shoal   is   part   of   this   overall   power   projection.     According  to  a  report:       Chinese   officials   are   deliberately   using   civilian   maritime   law-­‐ enforcement   vessels,   rather   than   the   People’s   Liberation   Army   Navy—to  enforce  China’s  maritime  rights  and  fishing  laws.  Whereas   China   resorted   to   using   warships   over   Mischief   Reef   territorial   disputes   in   the   1990s,   the   recent   assertiveness   of   China   in   these   waters   has   been   prosecuted   largely   with   civilian   instruments   of   power.18     MARITIME  SECURITY  DILEMMA  IN  PHILIPPINES-­CHINA  RELATIONS     The  rise  of  China’s  maritime  power  in  the  South  China  Sea  exacerbates  the   maritime  security  dilemma  in  Philippines-­‐China  relations.    For  the  Philippines,  the   implementation  of  China’s  naval  strategy  in  the  South  China  Sea  is  offensive  and  is   very   threatening.     Its   deployment   around   the   South   China   Sea   of   China   Maritime   Surveillance   (CMS)   vessels   with   maritime   defense   capabilities   is   flexing   China’s   military  muscles.      For  China  however,  its  deployment  of  CMS  vessels  in  the  South   China   is   part   of   its   sovereign   right   to   patrol   its   territorial   waters   for   defensive   purposes.    In  fact,  China  accuses  the  Philippines  for  its  “illegal  occupation”  of  China’s   territories  in  the  South  China  Sea.     Since   the   Philippine   government   does   not   have   the   maritime   capability   to   match   China’s   actions   in   the   South   China   Sea,   Manila   resorted   to   international   arbitration   process   to   peacefully   settle   its   maritime   disputes   with   Beijing.   On   22   January  2013,  the  Philippine  Department  of  Foreign  Affairs  (DFA)  took  its  maritime   claims  in  the  South  China  Sea  before  the  Arbitral  Tribunal  under  Article  287  and   Annex  VII  of  the  1982  United  Nations  Convention  on  the  Law  of  the  Sea  (UNCLOS).         The  DFA  also  sent  a  Note  Verbale  to  Chinese  Ambassador  to  the  Philippines,   Ma  Keging.  The  Note  Verbale  contained  the  21-­‐page  Notification  and  Statement  of   Claim  it  submitted  for  international  arbitration.  The  salient  points  in  the  Notification   and  Statement  of  Claim  are  the  following:   1. The   Philippines   asserts   that   China’s   so-­‐called   nine-­‐dash   line   claim   that   encompasses   virtually   the   entire   South   China   Sea/West   Philippine   Sea   is   contrary  to  UNCLOS  and  thus  unlawful.   2. Within  the  maritime  area  encompassed  by  the  9-­‐dash  line,  China  has  also  laid   claim   to,   occupied   and   built   structures   on   certain   submerged   banks,   reefs   and  low  tide  elevations  that  do  not  qualify  as  islands  under  UNCLOS,  but  are   parts   of   the   Philippine   continental   shelf,   or   the   international   seabed.       In                                                                                                                   18Ibid.,  p.  3.      
  • 12.   12   addition,   China   has   occupied   certain   small,   uninhabitable   coral   projections   that  are  barely  above  water  at  high  tide,  and  which  are  “rocks”  under  Article   121  (3)  of  UNCLOS.   3. China  has  interfered  with  the  lawful  exercise  by  the  Philippines  of  its  rights   within   its   legitimate   maritime   zones,   as   well   as   to   the   aforementioned   features  and  their  surrounding  waters.   4. The  Philippines  is  conscious  of  China’s  Declaration  of  August  25,  2006  under   Article   298   of   UNCLOS   (regarding   optional   exceptions   to   the   compulsory   proceedings),  and  has  avoided  raising  subjects  or  making  claims  that  China   has,  by  virtue  of  that  Declaration,  excluded  from  arbitral  jurisdiction.     Though   the   Philippines   also   have   the   intention   to   develop   a   “minimum   credible   defense   force”,   international   legal   measure   is   its   immediate   option   to   advance  its  outstanding  maritime  claims  in  the  South  China  Sea.           China,  however,  prefers  direct  bilateral  negotiations.    Beijing  rejects  Manila’s   option  to  internationalize  the  South  China  Sea  dispute.  Meanwhile,  Beijing  continues   to  implement  its  maritime  patrols  in  the  disputed  waters  of  the  South  China  Sea  to   assert  its  sovereignty  claims.       CONCLUSION     The  Philippines  and  China  are  trapped  in  a  maritime  security  dilemma  in  the   South   China   Sea   because   of   various   security   uncertainties   posed   by   the   rise   of   China’s  maritime  power.  Both  countries’  perception  of  security  uncertainties,  in  fact,   drives   their   maritime   security   dilemma.     This   maritime   security   dilemma   puts   Philippines-­‐China  security  relations  in  a  situation  of  enmity  rather  than  amity.     But  there  is  a  way  to  overcome  the  maritime  security  dilemma.    Most  experts   in  international  relations  agree  that  the  way  out  of  the  security  dilemma  is  through   peaceful   and   open   communication.       Though   this   is   easier   said   than   done,   communication  is  essential  to  build  confidence  and  trust  amidst  the  uncertainties  in   the  security  environment.           If  the  Philippines  and  China  can  communicate  effectively  that  their  intentions   are  benign  to  each  other,  their  maritime  security  dilemma  in  the  South  China  Sea   may  be  overcome.    Thus,  both  countries  have  to  exert  their  best  efforts  to  open  all   possible  channels  of  communication  to  ameliorate  their  maritime  security  dilemma.         The   Philippines   and   China   are   friendly   neighbors.     Their   long-­‐standing   friendship   dates   back   to   many   centuries   of   peaceful   co-­‐existence   and   good   neighborliness.         However,  the  complex  territorial  conflict  in  the  South  China  Sea  has  affected   the  further  blossoming  of  their  friendship.  The  South  China  Sea  conflict  punctuated  
  • 13.   13   by   China’s   implementation   of   its   naval   strategy   exacerbates   the   two   countries’   maritime  security  dilemma.         At   present,   Philippines-­‐China   relations   are   sour.   Their   bilateral   ties   have   reached   its   lowest   point.     But   the   Philippines   and   China   can   escape   or   transcend   their  maritime  security  dilemma  in  the  South  China  Sea  if  they  will  open  all  possible   channels  of  peaceful  communication  through  more  friendly  exchanges.     The  South  China  Sea  dispute  is  just  one  aspect  of  Philippines-­‐China  relations.       Both  countries  have  to  exert  efforts  to  prevent  the  South  China  Sea  dispute  to  affect   the   over-­‐all   improvement   of   their   comprehensive   bilateral   ties.     The   South   China   Sea,  in  fact,  can  be  the  sea  the  can  unite  rather  than  divide  the  Philippines  and  China.