Reduced emissions from all land uses - A broader perspective on REDD+: presentation
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Seminar on Landscapes in a Carbon Focused World 26 October 2012 SIANI, Focali & Naturskyddsföreningen organized a one-day seminar in Gothenburg. Summary: Vietnam has been targeted as one the REDD+ pilot program countries with great willingness to mitigate emission from carbon dioxide by avoiding deforestation. However, being a country with a diverse landscape and scattered deforestation and reforestation the REDD+ approach is not obvious. This study suggests a landscape approach to quantify emission from broadening the REDD+ scope to include other relevant landscapes. Land cover conversion and land use change in tropical forest margins affects both carbon stocks and profitability. Where the carbon stocks generally decrease during land use conversion and profitability (from the perspective of the actors) increases, the ratio of these changes is indicative of an opportunity cost of foregoing the change. The OPCOST model of Opportunity Costs Analysis used in this study combines information on land cover types (typical C stock densities and Net Present Value) with a land use change matrix for a certain period. This model has proven to be a very useful tool for providing a science-based carbon offset price estimation that is important for decision making for any conversion of forestland into non-forest land. Matilda Palm's research included financial mechanisms related to climate and forest as well as landscape rehabilitation in developing countries with a special focus on degraded and marginal lands. Palm has a masters and PhD in physical geography, did a postdoc at World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF) in Vietnam and is currently doing a postdoc at Physical Resource Theory at Chalmers. Click to view the video of the presentation
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Reduced emissions from all land uses - A broader perspective on REDD+: presentation
- 1. REDUCED EMISSION FROM ALL LAND USES A broader perspective on REDD+ Matilda Palm, Chalmers Technical University, Physical Resource Theory Landscapes in a carbon focused world SIANI, Focali, GMV och NSF Göteborg 26 Oktober 2012
- 2. Reduced emission from deforestation and degradation - REDD • REDD Surinam Indonesia Reduced Emissions from Gabon Bolivia Deforestation and Degradation Bangladesh • REDD+ India Includes: Vietnam • conservation China • Sustainable management of forest REDD • enhancement of forest carbon stock. REDD+ Both systems are limited to the definition of forest
- 3. Hoang et al. 2012
- 4. Why a landscape approach - REALU
- 5. Background – REDD+ perspective in Vietnam • Low (1,2 tCO2eq/per capita/year) but sharply increasing GHG emissions (6,7% 1995 - 2000 and 10, 6% 2000-2005) • Estimated emission from deforestation, forest degradation and forest land use change were 19 Mt CO2 in year 2000 • Emission from forest and agricultural sector were 29% of annual GHG emissions • Active development of Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Activities (NAMA) • Adapting to a REDD+ perspective in the NAMA and in the general climate approach Rubber Plantation in Tay Ninh Province, Vietnam. Photo Jake Catlett
- 6. National issues for REDD+ readiness • Inconsistent land use classification and forest definitions • Inconsistencies between land use plans and actual land use • Inconsistency between land use data available and forest cover change • Issues: • Include REDD+ in overall framework of forest or • Include REDD+ in a broader overall framework? Coffee plantations in Da Lat Photo John van der Woude
- 7. Why a landscape approach in Vietnam? • A broader approach is not limited to the definition of forest • Vietnam use 3 different definitions of forest • Designated National Authority (DNA) for CDM projects • Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) for forest management (2009) • Vietnam’s Forest Protection and Development law (2004) • The REDD+ mechanism itself does not hinder the national implementation to be broader (full landscape?) than the definition itself, but the “payment” will only be made for the defined REDD+ actions
- 8. The case of Dak Nong • Located in the central highlands • High deforestation area – very little primary forest left • Aim • What are the current impacts of deforestation and land-use change on carbon emission? • Assessment of land-use change and the associated drivers as well as underlying causes. • What level of economic profitability is associated with current carbon emissions and at what carbon market price could different degrees of deforestation and degradation be offset?
- 9. The case of Dak Nong • Located in the central highlands • High deforestation area – very little primary forest left • Aim • What are the current impacts of deforestation and land-use change on carbon emission? • Assessment of land-use change and the associated drivers as well as underlying causes. • What level of economic profitability is associated with current carbon emissions and at what carbon market price could different degrees of deforestation and degradation be offset?
- 10. Approaches to REALU • Spatial analysis – to establish the long term land-use change and to identify the drivers of the change • Land use conversion (from what- to what – when – by whom?) • Opportunity cost analysis on various land use alternatives, all relevant for land use conversion • What is the costs (in USD) per tCO2eq for different land use conversions? (input – NPV, time averaged carbon stock, land use matrix) • Stakeholder consultation – to collect data and groundtruth the data analysis
- 11. Results • Large gaps between land use planning and actual land- use change • High conversion rate from natural forest to perennial crops, although decreasing from 97% to 52 % over the last 30 years. • Majority of the land use conversion generated less than 5.3 USD per tCO2eq lost – conversion from natural forest to shifting cultivation or low carbon annual crops. • Conversion of poor and medium natural forest to perennial crops (rubber, coffee) show high economic profitability, 225 USD per tCO2eq
- 12. Reasons for applying a landscape approach in Vietnam How can this approach facilitate the REDD+ readiness? • Identify • the drivers on land use conversion and • the interaction of actual land use and policy implementation. • the choices made by land users and by that also potential alternatives to land use change. • the gap between land-use plans and real land-use changes. Focus the REDD+ actions to the most suitable areas
- 13. Question for consideration • Is it possible to combine different carbon mechanisms in order to apply the landscape approach nationally and internationally?
- 14. Thank you! Small hydroenergy dam, Bac Kan. Photo Matilda Palm
- 15. Results Long term trend of land use/land cover change
- 16. Stakeholder consultations • By workshops and key informant interviews • Presented results for groundtruthing • Responding to cause and impact to • Policy implementation • Actual land use change Degraded hill slope, Bac Kan. Photo Matilda Palm
- 18. Opportunity cost analysis • Net Present Value (USD/ha) • Time averaged carbon stock (t/ha) • Land use matrix (from the spatial analysis)
- 19. Results
Notes de l'éditeur
- Broader perspective on REDD with examples from Vietnam I’m here to present a study conducted in Vietnam during 2010 in collaboration with the World Agroforestry Centre. The World Agroforestry Centre generates science-based knowledge about the diverse roles trees play in agricultural landscapes It is one of 15 international research organizations that make up the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR). This work was funded by NORAD - the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation,
- REDD is AVOIDED deforestation and degradation defined by the UNFCCC as a international mechanism to reward countries reducing their emission from deforestation or increasing carbon uptake in forest lands. The final forms for this mechanism is still to be decided, while this issue has been one of the most debated ones since COP 11 in Montreal. Since COP 13 in Bali, REDD+ also includes conservation, sustainable management of forest and enhancement of forest carbon stock (enhanced natural regeneration) Thus, one of the core issues in REDD is how to create a multi-level (international and national) ‘payments for environmental services’ (PES) scheme (Angelsen 2008). Currently there are massive ambition to make REDD+ fly, numerous fund based multilateral or bilateral initiatives to create REDD reddiness by providing funding for investigating monitoring systems or benefit sharing. Vietnam is one of the first countries to turn the corner on “forest transition” without fisrt completely depleated the forest. However whille reported forest area increased , net emission continued to rise as carbon rich forest was lost and plantations of low carbon stock were added. On the right on the transition curve but are blamed for causing deforestation in neighboring countries. The fact is that Vietnam are keeping its timber export while deforesting less. Increasing the reforestation but not enough to cover the sustained export. There are several commitments by Vietnam and its neighboring countries to act jointly to control illegal logging and leakage, such as the EU action plan, Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade (FLEGT).
- Evolution of the RED concept. Notes: The concept evolved from the Afforestation/Reforestation component of the Clean Development Mechanism (A/R-CDM) to reducing emissions from deforestation (RED) through reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) and reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation plus conservation (REDD+) to reducing emissions from deforestation, forest degradation and agriculture plus conservation (REDD++) and reducing emissions from all land uses (REALU) to achieve net reduction of emissions by enhancement of terrestrial carbon stocks and/or avoided emissions. This means that you can Include all transitions in land cover that affect carbon storage, weather peatlands or mineral soils, trees-outside-forests, agroforest, plantations or natural forest And go beyond the forest baseline and achive further carbon stock enhancement as well as more avoided emissions. As debate on the reduction of emissions from forest change has progressed from RED up to REDD ++ it has highlighted the complexity involved in managing multifunctional and multipurpose landscape mosaics. SFM = sustainable forest management; FCSC = forest carbon stock conservation; FCSE = forest carbon stock enhancement.
- The latter concept does not depend on the operational definition of ‘forest’, but employ the landscape approach in addressing REDD+. The argument is that forests cannot be successfully protected using a forestry approach alone and that forests cannot be separated from the broader landscape because ‘drivers’, ‘actors’ and ‘incentives’ interact and overlap across the landscape. A broad-based approach to carbon management can lead to greater emissions reductions and larger benefits for local people. This image shows the relationship between land use and three parts of the global feedback systems that try to reduce emissions from land use: the REDD+ agenda focused on forest, the NAMA approach focused on nationally appropriate mitigation action (can, but does not have to, include land use or selected parts of the AFOLU agenda) and the trade-based approaches: FLEGT=Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade, an approach to restrict illegal logging through certified wood trade; RED=Renewable Energy Directive of the EU, with a counterpart under discussion in the USA, to reduce C footprint of biofuels; RSPO= roundtable on sustainable production of oil palm, with similar initiatives for other commodities. The combined effect of these measures relates both to the (top-down) agreements between nations for international rules and the bottom-up perspective of global citizens as consumers who stimulate ‘responsible business’ models to emerge
- I will now go into a bit more detail and practical experience in working with a full landscape approach. As I said earlier, this study takes place in Vietnam. Emission from forest and agricultural sector were 29% of annual GHG emissions Since Vietnam has identified as one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change, the government has been taking an active part in climate change negotiation and conduct climate related policywork on many different levels. The REDD+ perspective follows the current forest policies aim to enhance SFM, biodiversity conservation and forest carbon stock
- For REDD readiness, consistency of land classification and subsequent land-use data is essential given that the monitoring, reporting and verification of REDD will be mainly based on the changes of forest areas over time, while REDD benefit-sharing may be based on land-use registration data how can performance-based payment for REDD be made if the two systems do not match? Vietnam understands the implementation of REDD as a balance between conservation and development. Revenues from REDD+ can contribute to forest protection as well as poverty reduction. The government is fully committed to REDD+ is currently coordinating the design of a comprehensive benefit distribution system where the ambition is to convert certified net emissions reductions into REDD+ revenue and distribute it to local partners, especially to the ultimate beneficiaries, in a transparent equitable and cost-effective manner. This is the plan, but how to go about it? Setting up a locally specific, but also internationally and nationally appropriate benefit distribution mechanisms remains critical and complex.
- combine data on carbon stocks, net present value (NPV) and land-use changes. This was done in order to compare the economic costs of carbon emissions
- combine data on carbon stocks, net present value (NPV) and land-use changes. This was done in order to compare the economic costs of carbon emissions
- The inputs for the model are a combination of time-averaged carbon stock and NPV of different land uses before and after recorded changes as well as the actual changes. The actual land-use change is determined from remote sensing analysis. The carbon stock of different land uses was compiled through a review of carbon data in Vietnam and the Southeast Asia region. NPV contains the profitability of land use, on the basis of net present value, or the discounted future cash flow (benefits-costs) for a land-use system's complete life cycle,
- Drivers of land use change Conversion of natural forest to perennial crops, dominated by rubber, coffee and cashew plantations. Insufficient and inadequate land use planning and consequently poor land use management Rapid and large immigration Unclear land tenure rules Case study confirms large gaps between land use planning and actual land-use change The spatial analysis show a high conversion rate from natural forest to perennial crops, decreasing from 97% to 52 % over the last 30 years. The stakeholder consultation present alternative drivers of land use change, implication of imposed policies and background for groundtruthing. Opportunity cost analysis demonstrate that the majority of the land use conversion generated less than 5.3 USD per tCO2eq lost – conversion from natural forest to shifting cultivation or low carbon annual crops. Conversion of poor and medium natural forest to perennial crops (rubber, coffee) show high economic profitability, 225 USD per tCO2eq There are also examples of the opposite – land use change generating both economic profitability and an increased carbon stock (pepper plantation to rubber)
- Why Opportunity cost analysis? Focus the REDD+ actions to the most suitable areas Spatial analysis in combination with stakeholder consultation provide a broader perspective on the drivers on land use conversion and the interaction of actual land use and policy implementation. Opportunity cost analysis (based on the spatial analysis and NPV) can provide insights to the choices made by land users and by that also potential alternatives to land use change. Provide insights to and potentially narrowing the gap between land-use plans and real land-use changes.
- The Highland Plateau is a major “hot spot” for converting forest to agriculture in Vietnam. On average, from 1990 to now, forest was lost at a rate of 15,000 ha per year. As a result, forest cover declined from 75% in 1985 to 60% in 2009. The annual rate of deforestation in the Highland Plateau was the highest of all regions, accounting for 46.3% of the national forest area lost in the whole country. Over the past 30 years, forest land decreased from 97.8% in 1979 to 51.7% in 2008. Agricultural land has increased from around 2% to over 34%, including both perennial and annual crops. In 2008, industrial crops and shifting cultivation seem to be the most preferred land uses among agricultural uses, given that 94% of perennial crop land is under industrial species and 73% of annual crops are shifting cultivation. ----- Meeting Notes (2011-09-27 22:50) -----
- The increase in profitability associated with local decrease in carbon stocks, as the ‘opportunity cost’ component of overall abatement costs. The level of simultaneous local increase in carbon stocks that is associated with gains in profitability (leading to a spontaneous recovery of carbon stocks in the landscape that does not apparently require additional incentives). The ‘anomalies’ of recorded land-use change associated with either decrease or increase in carbon stock but a decrease in profitability. If a considerable fraction of recorded land-use is in this category it may point towards incomplete understanding of profitability (missing elements in cost-benefit equations, incorrect prices, values and/or discount rates, and/or greater spatial dependence on the components of Net Present Value).
- The estimated cumulative emissions for 1994-2000 were as much as during 2000-2004, but six times higher than during 2004-2008 (see horizontal excel of the curves (discount rate 10%) The majority of the land-use changes generated less than USD 5.30 per tCO2eq lost. Such low-price carbon emissions were due to deforestation and degradation and contributed to the majority of total carbon lost from the landscape. The former was from conversion of natural forest and planted forest to low carbon annual crops and some perennial crops like cashew and pepper, while the later was contributed by converting medium forest to poor forest and young forest/regrowth. Deforestation due to conversion from natural forest to coffee and rubber plantations resulted in the highest carbon abatement cost, up to USD 224.10pertCO2eq lost when poor forest was converted to rubber plantation, owing to the very high economic benefit of these two crops. In this context, deforestation for rubber and coffee plantations in Dak Nong seemed to be unstoppable since these land-use conversions return very high economic profitability, while deforestation for annual crops and cashew and pepper could have been prevented by the carbon market. It is interesting that, in this period of time, a number of land-use transitions gained both economic value and carbon stock, resulting in negative abatement costs as high as USD 804.50pertCO2eq (conversions of pepper and other perennial crops to rubber plantation). Conversion of annual crops including shifting cultivation to coffee and rubber plantation, although generating lower economic value, also helped to improve carbon stock of other landscape.