European Hotel Outlook - Hot.E 2013 Elizabeth Winkle
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Hotel and Economic Outlook in Europe presented by Elizabeth Winkle at the Hotel Investment Conference Europe September 2013
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European Hotel Outlook - Hot.E 2013 Elizabeth Winkle
- 1. Hotel and Economic Outlook in Europe Elizabeth Winkle Managing Director, STR Global
- 2. Our coverage as of August 2013 32,486 hotels 3,851,989 rooms 672 hotels 106,080 rooms 638 hotels 115,842 rooms 486 hotels 127,280 rooms 8,140 hotels 1,148,815 rooms 5,118 hotels 1,048,878 rooms
- 3. Global performance As of August 2013 Europe € YE11 YE12 YTD 13 5.4% 4.4% 0.5% Asia Pacific $ YE11 YE12 YTD 13 3.8% -0.3% -3.8 % North America $ YE11 YE12 YTD 13 8.0% 6.4% 5.7% Middle East & Africa $ YE11 YE12 YTD 13 -2.1% 5.4% 5.5%
- 4. Constrained Supply YTD 2013, YoY % Chg, supply, demand, RevPAR Asia Pacific Europe € Middle East C&SA North America Africa -1% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9% 11% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% Demand Supply
- 5. Back to Peak? RGI Index on YE 2008, US dollars, only Europe in Euros 0.75 0.8 0.85 0.9 0.95 1 1.05 1.1 1.15 1.2 YE 2007 YE 2008 YE 2009 YE 2010 YE 2011 YE 2012 Africa Europe Middle East N. America Asia Pacific CSA
- 6. USA vs Europe Demand Percent Change 12MMA % change YE 2000 to Mar 2013 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 USA Europe Aug‘13 2.4% Aug‘13 2.6% Nov ‘10 6.8% Feb ‘11 7.7% Jul ‘09 -7.3% Aug ’09 -7.1% Mar ‘02 -4.7% Mar ‘02 -5.5%
- 8. Europe Room Supply/Demand %Chg -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Supply % Chg Demand % Chg 12MMA YE 2005 to Aug 2013 Nov ‘10 6.8% Jul ‘09 -7.3% Aug‘13 2.6%
- 9. Europe Occ/ADR %Chg -14% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Occ % Chg ADR % Chg 12MMA – YE 2005 to Aug 2013 Aug ‘13 1.7% May ‘11 5.8%Jan ‘11 5.4% Jul ‘09 -8.4% Nov ‘09 -11.5% Aug ‘13 -0.1%
- 10. Europe RevPAR % Chg -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 RevPAR % Chg 12 MMA YE 2005 to Aug 2013 May ‘11 10.9% Oct ‘09 -18.2% Aug ‘13 1.5%
- 11. Europe actual performance 20 € 30 € 40 € 50 € 60 € 70 € 80 € 90 € 100 € 0 200,000,000 400,000,000 600,000,000 800,000,000 1,000,000,000 1,200,000,000 1,400,000,000 1,600,000,000 1,800,000,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Supply Demand RevPAR 12 MMA YE 2005 to Aug 2013
- 12. European Regions Occ/ADR/RevPAR YTD 2012 & YTD 2013 in € YTD 2012 Occ ADR RevPAR Total 63.6 102.49 65.16 Eastern 56.1 92.41 51.87 Northern 67.8 96.46 65.43 Southern 59.5 98.22 58.40 Western 64.2 116.40 74.74 YTD 2013 Occ ADR RevPAR Total 67.2 101.97 68.49 Eastern 60.6 84.47 51.22 Northern 72.5 94.16 68.24 Southern 63.1 106.22 67.03 Western 66.1 113.68 75.18
- 13. Key Cities - Europe YTD August 2013, % Chg, Occ and ADR (local currency) -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Occupancy ADR
- 14. Key European Cities €50 €100 €150 €200 €250 €300 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% Occupancy ADR € YTD August 2013 Occupancy & ADR - € £134
- 15. Pipeline Europe 4.33M 33,972 134,819 Supply Existing Recently Opened Pipeline 7% 15% 22% 18% 6% 11% 21% Active Pipeline Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Unaffiliated
- 16. Distribution of Pipeline Rooms
- 17. Top Pipeline - New Rooms 2013 & 2014
- 18. Lost Decade? EUzone GDP/Demand % chg -15 -12 -9 -6 -3 0 3 6 9 2004 2009 2014 GDP Demand *Eurozone Demand & GDP % Change, Quarterly 2004 – 2014F GDP Source: Oxford Economics
- 19. 2013 Forecast
- 20. 2014 Forecast