John Girard's Talk "Who Knows, Wins" at the International Conference on Knowledge Economy in Cape Town, South Africa, 29 October 2013

1. www.johngirard.net/1301
Knowledge
Shared
in
Knowledge
Squared
c. 350 BC
17th Century
1950s
1990s
Aristotle
Sir Francis Bacon
Michael Polanyi
Carla O’Dell
2000s
Jeff Howe
Classification
of
Knowledge
Aristotle
History
of
KM
www.johngirard.net
Google
Trends:
Knowledge
Management
1
john@johngirard.net

2. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vasco_da_Gama
Google
Trends:
Knowledge
Management
Vasco
da
Gama
-­‐
1497
For
at
the
same
�me
Aristotle
was
considering
the
categoriza�on
of
knowledge,
Sun
Tzu
wrote,
“If
you
know
your
enemy
and
know
yourself,
you
need
not
fear
the
results
of
a
hundred
ba�les.”
And,
at
the
same
�me,
that
knowledge
management
gurus
were
selling
their
wares
to
business
leaders
across
North
America,
we
heard
General
Tommy
Franks,
saying
“...
as
has
been
the
case
since
Sun
Tzu
said
it,
precise
knowledge
of
self
and
precise
knowledge
of
the
threat
leads
to
victory.”
故曰：知彼知己，百戰不殆；不知彼而知己，一勝一負；不知彼，不知己，每戰必殆。
So
it
is
said
that
if
you
know
your
enemies
and
know
yourself,
you
can
win
a
hundred
ba�les
without
a
single
loss.
If
you
only
know
yourself,
but
not
your
opponent,
you
may
win
or
may
lose.
If
you
know
neither
yourself
nor
your
enemy,
you
will
always
endanger
yourself.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sun_Tzu
Sun
Tzu
(circa
512
BCE)
Knowing
Unknown
Knowns
Unknown
Unknowns
HP
Known
Knowns
Known
Unknowns
Comp
Intell
“. . . there are known knowns; there are things we know that we know. There are known
unknowns; that is to say there are things that we now know we don’t know. But there are also
unknown unknowns — there are things that we do not know we don't know.”
A
leader’s
view
on
“knowing”.
.
.
www.johngirard.net
Knowns
and
Unknowns
2
john@johngirard.net

3. CHAPTER 1
THE WHERE
Where is the wisdom we have lost in
knowledge? Where is the knowledge we have
lost in information?
—T. S. Eliot, The Rock (1935)
Unknown
Unknowns
245+ academic papers on Information Overload 1972-2000 (Bawden, 2001)
2/3 of managers complained of
Information overload (KPMG, 2000)
Information Overload
Personal Information Overload
Information overload occurs
when the amount of input to a
system exceeds its
processing capacity.
A perception on the part of the individual
(or observers of that person) that the flow
of information associated with work tasks is
greater than can be managed effectively.
(Speier et al, 1999, p. 338)
(Wilson, 2001, p. 113)
Information Overload
Managers “dwell on information that
is entertaining but not informative, or
easily available but not of high
quality” (Linden, 2001, p.2)
A situation in which the extent of
perceived information overload is
sufficiently widespread within an
organization as to reduce the overall
effectiveness of management operations.
(Bawden, 2001, p. 6)
38% of the surveyed managers
waste a substantial amount of time
locating information (Wilson, 2001)
The number of books published annually has increased exponentially since
the 16th century. At present, the prediction is that the number of books
doubles every 33 years (Hanka & Fuka, 2000).
Organizational Information Overload
Information overload is that
state in which available, and
potentially useful, information
is a hindrance rather than a
help.
43% of the managers delayed
decisions because of too much
information. (Wilson, 2001)
(Wilson, 2001, p. 113)
The total accumulated codified database of the world, which includes all
books and all electronic files, doubles every seven years and some predict
this will double twice a day by 2010 (Bontis, 2000).
Informa�on
Overload
The
Problem
–
Enterprise
Demen�a
www.foreignaffairs.com/issues/2013/92/3
Big
Data
The
Cost?
www.johngirard.net
3
http://www.domo.com/
john@johngirard.net

4. Big
Data
http://www.domo.com/
http://www.domo.com/
dg
le
ow
Kn
n
tio
ea
Cr
ge
led
ow
ge
Ed
http://www.domo.com/
Kn
e
14 November 2004
Wisdom
“With 3,600 stores in the United States and
Understanding
roughly 100 million customers walking
Knowledge
Knowledge
through the doors each week, Wal-Mart has
access to information about a broad slice of
America Information
. . . The data are gathered item by
item at the checkout aisle, then recorded,
mapped and updated by store, by state, by
Data
region . . . By its own account Wal-Mart has
460 terabytes of data.” ( 750,000 CDs 1 terabyte ~
1,000,000 MB)
Hurricane
Data
Mining:
Unknown
Unknowns
Google
Ngram:
Data
Mining
www.johngirard.net
Lost
in
the
data
-­‐
Knowing
what
you
see!
4
john@johngirard.net

5. Derek Sivers
Learning
to
see
things
differently
Process
Culture
Technology
Measurement
Leadership
A
New
View
of
KM
In
June
of
1995,
a
health
worker
in
a
�ny
town
in
Zambia
went
to
the
Web
site
of
the
Centers
for
Disease
Control
and
got
the
answer
to
a
ques�on
about
the
treatment
for
malaria.
Remember
that
this
was
in
Zambia,
one
of
the
poorest
countries
in
the
world,
and
it
happened
in
a
�ny
place
600
kilometers
from
the
capital
city.
But
the
most
striking
thing
about
this
picture,
at
least
for
us,
is
that
the
World
Bank
isn't
in
it.
Despite
our
know-­‐how
on
all
kinds
of
poverty
related
issues,
that
knowledge
isn‘t
available
to
the
millions
of
people
who
could
use
It.
Imagine
if
it
were.
Think
what
an
organiza�on
we
could
become.
Will
people
understand
your
message?
www.johngirard.net
HBR
May
2004
5
john@johngirard.net

6. Purpose
of
Story
Ø Sparking
ac�on
Ø Communica�ng
who
you
are
Ø Transmi�ng
values
Ø Fostering
collabora�on
Ø Taming
the
grapevine
Ø Sharing
knowledge
Ø Leading
people
into
the
future
www.stevedenning.com/SIN-136-HBR-publishes-Telling-Tales.html
Storytelling
by
Steve
Denning
www.johngirard.net/sas/
Leadership
The
Power
of
Words
How do you test your
plans before you execute
them?
How do you test your
decision support
structures?
An
introduc�on
to
……
How do you put your plan
under realistic stress
before execution?
Strategic
Wargaming
“Execu�on
excellence
through
disciplined
rehearsal”
The
Shared
Strategic
Execu�on
Challenge
www.johngirard.net
6
36
john@johngirard.net

7. How do you establish, align and
integrate your corporate
authorities, responsibilities and
accountabilities?
How are your requirements
for Disciplined Testing,
Refinement, Rehearsal &
Execution different than
those of the military?
Are they aligned with the actual
decisions that need to be made?
Who plays the role of your
adversary, your
competition, or your
clients?
Short Answer:
they’re not.
Who is your BAD GUY?
The
Shared
Strategic
Execu�on
Challenge
Military
Challenge
versus
Business
Challenge
37
38
Simply, we wargamed
every course of action
before committing to a
preferred strategy or
plan.
The best way to
rehearse is if the players
that are testing the plan
are the very people that
will eventually have to
make critical decisions
in the execution of the
plan.
….and do it in a way that ensures your decision support SIMULATION
……. promotes decision support STIMULATION
Military
Challenge
versus
Business
Challenge
How
did
we
do
it
in
the
military?
39
We rehearsed by
wargaming the actions of
a realistic adversary in a
realistic operational
environment.
We rehearsed by wargaming
any and all commanders that
had to make decisions in the
execution, or synchronization
of that plan.
How
did
we
do
it
in
the
military?
www.johngirard.net
How
did
we
do
it
in
the
military?
41
40
7
42
john@johngirard.net

8. So, what’s the equivalent of
blood, sweat and tears on
your corporate/
government/NGO
battlefield?
We wargamed in a
cooperative leadership and
learning environment that
believed that sweat and
tears in a wargame were
preferable to blood and
tears on the battlefield.
How
did
we
do
it
in
the
military?
How
did
we
do
it
in
the
military?
43
44
Wargames are real-time,
action-reaction, role-playing
workshops that pit your key
real-life decision makers and
managers (Blue Team) …
Wargame Hindsight
becomes
Business Foresight
….against real-time
competitive adversaries
(Red Team)….
…and disciplined by an
executive level White
team.
The
Strategic
Compe��ve
Advantage
What
is
Wargaming?
45
Wargaming
is
a
methodological
discipline
to
test
your
plans
that
is
also
designed
to
promote:
46
The aim of wargaming is to
ensure continuous
improvement in your ability to
compete and win on your
corporate battlefield.
risk
mi�ga�on,
innova�on,
mechanisms
of
discovery
for
leadership,
mechanisms
of
voice
for
your
teams
The most important element of
Wargaming is not the tool used,
but the people who participate.
real-­‐�me
organiza�onal
learning
for
all.
It’s
a
game
in
name
only.
www.johngirard.net
It’s
a
game
in
name
only.
47
8
48
john@johngirard.net

9. A�er
Ac�on
Reviews
(AARs)
are
a
LEADERSHIP
responsibility
and
are
conducted
by
your
corporate
leadership,
facilitated
by
the
White
Team
Lead
and
supported
by
the
Blue
and
Red
Leads.
There are 3 fundamental types of
Wargames:
They
are
inclusive
but
disciplined.
¡ The
Course of Action (COA)
Wargame
Must
be
construc�ve
and
detailed.
¡ The
Lever
innova�on
by
posing
“what
if”
ques�ons.
Wargame
lessons
are
a
LEADERSHIP
ac�vity!
Rehearsal Wargame
¡ The
Egos
are
le�
at
the
door.
Red Team Exercise
What
type
of
Wargame
suits
you
best?
49
A Rehearsal Wargame is a
comprehensive exercise to test a
single accepted plan prior to its
execution.
These are a series of two of more
sequential and comparable
wargames involving the same
conditions, actors and weighting
criteria to determine the most viable
options available in terms of risk,
execution, pay off, etc.
The BLUE TEAM involves all senior
executives who must make
decisions and manage activities in
the execution of that plan and
confined to their accepted decision
support roles.
This is a decision support tool for
senior executives to recommend a
distinct plan of action to corporate
leadership.
Red & Blue players are normally drawn from the extant pool of
executives normally involved in your company’s strategic and
operational planning process.
The RED TEAM is drawn from corporate leadership team or
subject matter experts.
Course
of
Ac�on
Wargaming
Rehearsal
Wargaming
51
Evaluating courses of action to
recommend a distinct plan;
A Red Team Exercise is similar to a
rehearsal Wargame with the exception
that none of the Red Team players are
drawn from company’s decision support
stakeholders.
WARGAME
HINDSIGHT
becomes
BUSINESS
FORESIGHT
Levering rehearsals as a comprehensive
exercise under conditions of extreme
competitive stress to test critical plans
Reinforcing Unity of Thought, Purpose and
Action throughout your team
Each RED TEAM player is an outside
subject matter expert that is not a
company stakeholder and is only given a
reasonable amount of information that a
normal competitor would have.
Visualizing of the flow of operations, given
joint strengths, weaknesses, dispositions,
capabilities and possible courses of
actions available to business actors in a
given business sector and environment.
The RED TEAM’s role is not merely to test the plan as adversarial
players but rather to put it under extreme competitive stress.
Red
Teaming
www.johngirard.net
50
In
summary
–
wargaming
is
all
about:
9
54
john@johngirard.net

10. Shouldn’t
You?
Dancers rehearse
Militaries rehearse
Actors rehearse
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lH39xjXaLW8
Food
for
thought?
www.johngirard.net
The
importance
of
knowing
.
.
.
55
10
john@johngirard.net