AFS - Energy for Africa Think Tank

1. The Energy Integration in Southern Africa
Jean-Pierre Favennec
IFP Professor – Consultant
Johannesburg – December 2, 2010

2. Summary
 Energy in the world
 Energy in Africa
 Energy in Southern Africa

3. Energy in the World
Recent changes :
- Reduction of CO2 emissions
- Limitations of oil production
- New gas situation
- Coal
- Renewables

4. 20.7
12.
70
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
$/b
28.8
65.1 72.5
54.5
38.1
97.6
19.1 17.
7
28.4
24.5 24.9
61.1
Source : Platt’s
S 404*17 – July 2010
Dated Brent price ($/b) –
January 1996 – July 2010
Weekly averages
Annual averages

6. 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Scenario
with reduction of emissions
Reference Scenario
Emissions (Gt CO2)
Natural carbone sequestration
Captured carbon
Fuel switch
Wind, Solar, nuclear
Biofuels
Energy efficiency
Source : Commission Européenne
CO2 emissions

9. Energy in Africa

10. South and central
America
North America
Africa
Asia non OECD
Europe
China
EL 101*1 – April 2009
Source : AIE
CIS
World electricity generation 2006
 World total = 18 921 TWh
5134
3531
959
1658
588
Middle
East
682 2904
1679
Asia OECD
1786
World electricity production by
source (TWh)
Coal 7756
Natural Gas 3807
Nuclear 2792
Hydro 3035
Oil 1096
Renewable 435

11. AF004 – October 2009
Source : BP Statistical Review
Energy consumption in Africa
Mtoe
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07
Electricité primaire
Charbon
Gaz naturel
Pétrole
Millions de tep
Electricity (primary)
Coal
Natural gas
Oil

12. The energy divides
 Divide between Africa
and the rest of the world
(15% of world
population for 3% of
world energy
consumption)
 Divide between North
Africa-South Africa and
the rest of Africa
 Divide between urban
and rural areas: Urban
areas look like energy
spots
3%
7%
Region energy consumption proportion
Energy barriers
North and South Africa: two specific areas

13. Hydroelectricity in Africa
Potential

14. Energy Integration in Southern Africa
Existing situation
Needs in electricity
The Integrated Resource Plan
What about renewables?
Integration : benefits and existing pools

15. Source : African Energy
Southern Africa’s power
Industry and Interconnections
 An existing electrical
integration mostly
between Mozambique and
South Africa
H
H
T T
T
W
H
T
TT
T
N
N Nuclear Power Plant
W Wind Power
T Thermal Power Plant
H Hydro Power Plant
Main power transmission line
Remarque : 1 circle = 3 power plants at least except nuclear
power plant for which 1 circle = 1 power plant

16. Southern African Power Pool
 South Africa represents 81% of SAPP in 2010 and will
remain at 77% of SAPP in 2025

17. The Integrated Resource Plan : Context and Description
 Obligation after National Energy Act of 2008
 Long term electricity capacity plan to develop a
sustainable electricity investment strategy for generation
capacity and transmission infrastructure for South Africa
over the next 25 years.
 Demand-side management (DSM)
 Pricing
 Capacity provided by all generators (Eskom and independant
power producers)
 Environment

18. The Integrated Resource Plan : Hypothesis
 GDP growth on average 4,6 % per year over the next 20
years
 It requires from 30 439 MW to 52 724 MW of new capacity
depending on scenarios for 454 357GWh produced in 2030.
 It assumes at least 3420 MW of demand side management
programmes

19. 5 models studied to establish
the balanced revised scenario
 A base case which minimise directs costs
 3 emissions limits based scenarios
 EM 1.0 : imposes an annual emission limit of 275 MT
 EM 2.0 : imposes an emission limit of 275 MT of carbon dioxide by 2025 but
allows emissions to go to higher levels prior to 2025
 EM 3.0 : imposes a tighter emission limit of 220MT of carbon dioxide from 2020
 A Carbon Tax based scenario (CT 0.0) : imposes carbon taxes escalated to
2010 Rands an contained in the LTMS documents
 2 others model were studied : a regional developement model and an
enhanced DSM model
Sources : DOE

20. The Integrated Resource Plan
3 scenarios Low Cost Scenario Balanced Scenario
Low Carbon
Scenario
Funding (BUS$) 78 85 (+10%) 125 (+60%)
Carbon emissions
(MT)
380 275 (-30%) 220 (-40%)
Generation mix by
2030
Capacity
development (MW)

21. The Integrated Resource Plan : Challenges
 A huge amount of renewables capacity
 Wind : 4 500 MW in the Balanced scenario up to 2019
 Solar : 400 MW
 Wind + Solar : 7 200 MW between 2019 and 2030
 Questions raised :
 Is it possible to build such capacities : resources, technical
problems
 Problem of cost and economic rentability?
 Ability for quick construction and maintenance?
 Problem of grid stability?

22. The Integrated Resource Plan : Challenges (2)
 Decentralised electricity not adressed
 Importance of transmission lines

23. Integration benefits
 Benefits : foster the development of the economy.
 Keys actions :
 Develop infrastructures
 Most important partners :
 Mozambique. There is already an important hydro production
(Caora Bassa) and new capacities will be built. Mozambique is also
supplying natural gas to RSA (Sasol)
 Zambia (hydro potential)
 Zimbabwe
 Limited cooperation :
 RDC. RSA is interested in electricity of Inga. But the Chinese
presence (exchange of raw materials against investments) makes
difficult this cooperation.
 Angola
 Key issue : transmission

24. Euratom (1957)
 Euratom (European Atomic Energy Community)
 Success :
 Legal framework, safety standard uniformisation
 Progressive enlargement of the cooperation
 Broad development on innovative technology
 Decrease in energy dependance
 Efficient information centralisation about nuclear stocks and flows,
and investment
 Fight against nuclear proliferation
 Lacks :
 Some legislative contents (about normalisation for example)
 Decision process

25. ECSC (1951)
 European Coal and Steel Community
 Success :
 Long term vision and comon process
• Peace, stability, prosperity, solidarity
• Efficient response during crisis
 Autonomous legal framework
• Uniform social protection and labour law
 Lacks :
 Emergence of great enterprises
 Difficulty for struggling on price non-accordance and for assuring
transparancy
 No equalization in salary

26. Benefits of integration
 In West Africa cost of kwh supposed to be reduced by 50
% if good interconnections between the different
countries of WAPP (West African Power Pool)

27. Thank you for your attention!