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Comparative Analysis of Select
    Economic Indicators
        1989/90 – 2010/11
Historical US$/J$ Exchange Rate
               1989 - 2007
DATE                RATE
February 10, 1989           5.51
December 29, 1989           6.50
December 31, 1990           8.81   Compounded annual rate of
December 31, 1991          21.57
December 30, 1992          22.20   devaluation for the 18.55 years
December 31, 1993          32.70
December 30, 1994          33.37   between February 10, 1989
December 29, 1995          39.80
December 31, 1996          35.03   and August 31, 2007 was
December 31, 1997          36.59
December 31, 1998
December 30, 1999
                           37.16
                           41.42
                                   14.67% per annum !
December 29, 2000          45.53
December 31, 2001          47.40
December 31, 2002          50.97
December 31, 2003          60.62
December 31, 2004          61.63
December 30, 2005          64.58
December 29, 2006          67.15
August 31, 2007            69.83

Source: Bank of Jamaica
Historical US$/J$ Exchange Rate
                  2007 - 2011

DATE                 RATE         Compounded annual rate of
September 04, 2007        69.87
                                  devaluation for the 4.24 years
December 31, 2007         70.62
December 31, 2008         80.47   between September 4, 2007
December 31, 2009         89.60   and December 2, 2011 was
December 31, 2010         85.86
December 02, 2011         86.71
                                  5.2% per annum !
Source: Bank of Jamaica
Historical Annual Inflation Rate
                    1989 - 2007
YEAR      INFLATION
  1989           17.20%           Average annual inflation rate between 1989
  1990           29.80%
                                  and 2007 was 19.68% per annum !
  1991           80.20%
  1992           40.20%
  1993           30.10%
  1994           26.80%                                   Annual Infla on
  1995           25.60%
                                                            1989 - 2007
  1996           15.80%
  1997            9.20%                          90.00%
  1998            7.90%                          80.00%
                                                 70.00%
                               Annual Infla on


  1999            6.80%
                                                 60.00%
  2000            6.10%                          50.00%
  2001            8.50%                          40.00%
  2002            7.20%                          30.00%
  2003           13.80%                          20.00%
                                                 10.00%
  2004           13.70%
                                                  0.00%
  2005           12.60%
                                                          1989
                                                          1990
                                                          1991
                                                          1992
                                                          1993
                                                          1994
                                                          1995
                                                          1996
                                                          1997
                                                          1998
                                                          1999
                                                          2000
                                                          2001
                                                          2002
                                                          2003
                                                          2004
                                                          2005
                                                          2006
                                                          2007
  2006            5.70%
  2007           16.80%
                                                          Annual Inflation in 1986,87 and 88 was 10.4%, 8.4% and 8.5%
Source: STATIN, Bank of Jamaica and                       respectively.
The Economic and Social Survey of Jamaica 1992            Source: The Economic and Social Survey of Jamaica 1992
Historical Annual Inflation Rate
                    2008 - 2011

YEAR INFLATION
  2008           16.8     Average annual inflation rate between 2008
  2009           10.2
  2010           11.7
                          and 2011 was 11.68% per annum
 2011*            8.0

Source: STATIN                                          Annual Inflation Rate
                                                            2008 - 2011
                                        18.00%
                                        16.00%
                                        14.00%
                                        12.00%
                           Axis Title




                                        10.00%
                                         8.00%
                                         6.00%
                                         4.00%
                                         2.00%
                                         0.00%
                                                 2008          2009        2010   2011*


* Data for 2011 represents point-to-point inflation to Sep 30
Average Annual Treasury Bill Rates
              1990 - 2007
   YEAR       AVG RATE
                            Average Treasury Bill Rate was 22.7%
   1990         26.76%
   1991         25.40%      between 1990 and 2007!
   1992         37.08%
   1993         48.90%
   1994         33.97%                                              Average Annual Treasury Bill Rates
   1995         25.43%                                                        1990 - 2007
   1996         31.08%                                         60.00%
   1997         18.80%
   1998         22.68%                                         50.00%

   1999         18.76%            Average Annual T'Bill Rate
                                                               40.00%
   2000         16.72%
   2001         15.42%                                         30.00%
   2002         14.41%
   2003         22.54%                                         20.00%

   2004         14.20%
                                                               10.00%
   2005         12.60%
   2006         12.02%                                          0.00%
   2007         11.86%
                                                                        1990
                                                                               1991
                                                                                      1992
                                                                                             1993
                                                                                                    1994
                                                                                                           1995
                                                                                                                  1996
                                                                                                                         1997
                                                                                                                                1998
                                                                                                                                       1999
                                                                                                                                              2000
                                                                                                                                                     2001
                                                                                                                                                            2002
                                                                                                                                                                   2003
                                                                                                                                                                          2004
                                                                                                                                                                                 2005
                                                                                                                                                                                        2006
                                                                                                                                                                                               2007
Source: Bank of Jamaica (1993 – 2007)
        Economic and Social Survey of Jamaica (1990 - 1992)
Average Annual Treasury Bill Rates
                  2008 - 2011
                          Average Treasury Bill Rate was 12.03%
                          between 2008 and 2011 and the lowest in 30
 YEAR     AVG RATE        years!

 2008     14.69%
 2009     18.12%
                                   Average Annual Treasury Bill Rates
 2010     8.84%
                                             2008 - 2011
 2011     6.47%
                          20.00%

                          15.00%
Source: Bank of Jamaica
                          10.00%

                           5.00%

                           0.00%
                                      2008      2009             2010   2011

                                                       Series1
GOJ Domestic Debt
                    1990/91 – 2010/11
Fiscal Year   Domestic Debt
              J$ Millions        During the period 1990/91 – 2010/11, GOJ
1990/91                 11,869   domestic debt increased by 4,200% in
1991/92                 12,078
1992/93                 20,462
                                 aggregate or at a compounded annual rate of
1993/94                 31,699   26.6% per annum
1994/95                 50,138
1995/96                 57,675
                                                                         GOJ Domestic Debt
1996/97                 85,181
1997/98                101,540                                           1990/91 - 2006/07
1998/99                139,204                 600,000
                                               500,000
1999/00                175,323
                                 J$ Millions


                                               400,000
2000/01                215,084
                                               300,000
2001/02                300,202
                                               200,000
2002/03                366,158                 100,000
2003/04                417,531                      -
2004/05                449,248
                                                         1990/91
                                                                   1991/92
                                                                             1992/93
                                                                                       1993/94
                                                                                                 1994/95
                                                                                                           1995/96
                                                                                                                     1996/97
                                                                                                                               1997/98
                                                                                                                                         1998/99
                                                                                                                                                   1999/00
                                                                                                                                                             2000/01
                                                                                                                                                                       2001/02
                                                                                                                                                                                 2002/03
                                                                                                                                                                                           2003/04
                                                                                                                                                                                                     2004/05
                                                                                                                                                                                                               2005/06
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2006/07
2005/06                482,713
2006/07                513,931

Source: Debt Management Unit, Ministry of Finance
GOJ Domestic Debt
                         2007/08 – 2010/11
Fiscal Year   Domestic Debt
              J$ Millions        During the period 2007/08 – 2010/11, GOJ
2007/08                562,108   domestic debt increased by 43% or at a
2008/09                651,657
2009/10                758,700
                                 compounded annual rate of 12.9% per annum
2010/11                809,370


Source: Debt Management Unit,                               GOJ Domestc Debt
        Ministry of Finance                                 2007/08 - 2010/11
                                               1,200,000

                                                900,000
                                 J$ Millions




                                                600,000

                                                300,000

                                                      -
                                                           2007/08   2008/09   2009/10   2010/11
GOJ External Debt
                       1990/91 – 2006/07
Fiscal Year External Debt
            J$ Million Equivalent                 During the period 1990/91 – 2010/11, GOJ
  1990/91                  33,903
                                                  external debt (measured in J$) increased by
  1991/92                 103,757
  1992/93                  79,875                 1,100% in aggregate or at a compounded
  1993/94                 120,577                 annual rate of 16.8% per annum
  1994/95                 120,632
  1995/96                 136,168
                                                            GOJ External Debt (J$ Equivalent)
  1996/97                 113,121                                  1990/91 - 2006/07
  1997/98                 117,643                 450,000
                                                  400,000
  1998/99                 123,099                 350,000
  1999/00                 133,365                 300,000
                                    J$ Millions




  2000/01                 165,557                 250,000
                                                  200,000
  2001/02                 196,881                 150,000
  2002/03                 235,083                 100,000
                                                   50,000
  2003/04                 276,316                       -
  2004/05                 310,450
  2005/06                 364,639
  2006/07                 409,193

Source: Debt Management Unit, Ministry of Finance
GOJ External Debt
                        2007/08 – 2010/11
 Fiscal Year External Debt                         During the period 2007/08 – 2010/11, GOJ
             J$ Million Equivalent
 2007/08                   438,567
                                                   external debt (measured in J$) increased by
 2008/09                   548,665                 73% in aggregate or at a compounded annual
 2009/10                   676,055                 rate of 20% per annum
 2010/11                   760,990

Source: Debt Management Unit,
        Ministry of Finance
                                                       GOJ External Debt (J$ Equivalent)
                                                              2007/08 – 2010/11
                                                   800,000

                                                   600,000
                                     J$ Millions




                                                   400,000

                                                   200,000

                                                        -
                                                             2007/08   2008/09   2009/10   2010/11
GOJ Total Debt
                   1990/91 – 2006/07
Fiscal Year   Total Debt
              J$ Million                    During the period 1990/91 – 2006/07, GOJ
1990/91            45,772                   Total Debt increased by 1,900% in aggregate
1991/92           115,835                   or at a compounded annual rate of 20.7% per
1992/93           100,337                   annum
1993/94           152,276
1994/95           170,770
1995/96           193,843                                                   GOJ Total Debt
1996/97           198,302                                                 1990/91 - 2006/07
1997/98           219,183                 1,000,000
1998/99           262,303                   900,000
                                            800,000
1999/00           308,688                   700,000
                            J$ Millions




                                            600,000
2000/01           380,641                   500,000
2001/02           497,083                   400,000
                                            300,000
2002/03           601,241                   200,000
                                            100,000
2003/04           693,847                         -
2004/05           759,697
                                                      1990/91
                                                                1991/92
                                                                          1992/93
                                                                                    1993/94
                                                                                              1994/95
                                                                                                        1995/96
                                                                                                                  1996/97
                                                                                                                            1997/98
                                                                                                                                      1998/99
                                                                                                                                                1999/00
                                                                                                                                                          2000/01
                                                                                                                                                                    2001/02
                                                                                                                                                                              2002/03
                                                                                                                                                                                        2003/04
                                                                                                                                                                                                  2004/05
                                                                                                                                                                                                            2005/06
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2006/07
2005/06           847,351
2006/07           923,124

Source: Debt Management Unit, Ministry of Finance
GOJ Total Debt
                        2007/08 – 2010/11

 Fiscal Year   Total Debt      During the period 2007/08 – 2010/11, GOJ
               J$ Millions
 2007/08           1,000,676
                               total debt (measured in J$) increased by 57%
 2008/09           1,200,322   in aggregate or at a compounded annual rate
 2009/10           1,434,756   of 16.2% per annum
 2010/11           1,570,360

Source: Debt                                               GOJ Total Debt
Management                                               2007/08 - 2010/11
Unit, Ministry of Finance
                                            1,500,000
                               Axis Title




                                            1,000,000


                                             500,000


                                                   -
                                                        2007/08   2008/09   2009/10   2010/11
Debt/GDP
                       1990/91 – 2006/07
Fiscal Year Debt/GDP
                                                        Debt/GDP Ratio
1990/91       120.63%                                  1990/91 - 2010/11
1991/92       193.53%
                                             200.00%
1992/93       105.64%




                            Debt/GDP Ratio
1993/94       116.52%                        150.00%
1994/95        99.45%
                                             100.00%
1995/96        91.10%
1996/97        71.35%                         50.00%
1997/98        72.33%
1998/99        80.84%                          0.00%



                                                       1990/91
                                                       1991/92
                                                       1992/93
                                                       1993/94
                                                       1994/95
                                                       1995/96
                                                       1996/97
                                                       1997/98
                                                       1998/99
                                                       1999/00
                                                       2000/01
                                                       2001/02
                                                       2002/03
                                                       2003/04
                                                       2004/05
                                                       2005/06
                                                       2006/07
                                                       2007/08
                                                       2008/09
                                                       2009/10
                                                       2010/11
1999/00        86.56%
2000/01        97.05%
2001/02       115.66%
2002/03       124.69%
2003/04       122.02%
2004/05       119.42%
2005/06       118.73%
2006/07       113.23%
2007/08       108.45%
2008/09       115.69%
2009/10       129.35%
2010/11       128.30%

 Source: Debt Management Unit, Ministry of Finance
Between 1991 and 2007, average GDP growth in Jamaica was 0.82% per annum
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Comparative economicanalysis

  • 1. Comparative Analysis of Select Economic Indicators 1989/90 – 2010/11
  • 2. Historical US$/J$ Exchange Rate 1989 - 2007 DATE RATE February 10, 1989 5.51 December 29, 1989 6.50 December 31, 1990 8.81 Compounded annual rate of December 31, 1991 21.57 December 30, 1992 22.20 devaluation for the 18.55 years December 31, 1993 32.70 December 30, 1994 33.37 between February 10, 1989 December 29, 1995 39.80 December 31, 1996 35.03 and August 31, 2007 was December 31, 1997 36.59 December 31, 1998 December 30, 1999 37.16 41.42 14.67% per annum ! December 29, 2000 45.53 December 31, 2001 47.40 December 31, 2002 50.97 December 31, 2003 60.62 December 31, 2004 61.63 December 30, 2005 64.58 December 29, 2006 67.15 August 31, 2007 69.83 Source: Bank of Jamaica
  • 3. Historical US$/J$ Exchange Rate 2007 - 2011 DATE RATE Compounded annual rate of September 04, 2007 69.87 devaluation for the 4.24 years December 31, 2007 70.62 December 31, 2008 80.47 between September 4, 2007 December 31, 2009 89.60 and December 2, 2011 was December 31, 2010 85.86 December 02, 2011 86.71 5.2% per annum ! Source: Bank of Jamaica
  • 4. Historical Annual Inflation Rate 1989 - 2007 YEAR INFLATION 1989 17.20% Average annual inflation rate between 1989 1990 29.80% and 2007 was 19.68% per annum ! 1991 80.20% 1992 40.20% 1993 30.10% 1994 26.80% Annual Infla on 1995 25.60% 1989 - 2007 1996 15.80% 1997 9.20% 90.00% 1998 7.90% 80.00% 70.00% Annual Infla on 1999 6.80% 60.00% 2000 6.10% 50.00% 2001 8.50% 40.00% 2002 7.20% 30.00% 2003 13.80% 20.00% 10.00% 2004 13.70% 0.00% 2005 12.60% 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2006 5.70% 2007 16.80% Annual Inflation in 1986,87 and 88 was 10.4%, 8.4% and 8.5% Source: STATIN, Bank of Jamaica and respectively. The Economic and Social Survey of Jamaica 1992 Source: The Economic and Social Survey of Jamaica 1992
  • 5. Historical Annual Inflation Rate 2008 - 2011 YEAR INFLATION 2008 16.8 Average annual inflation rate between 2008 2009 10.2 2010 11.7 and 2011 was 11.68% per annum 2011* 8.0 Source: STATIN Annual Inflation Rate 2008 - 2011 18.00% 16.00% 14.00% 12.00% Axis Title 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% 2008 2009 2010 2011* * Data for 2011 represents point-to-point inflation to Sep 30
  • 6. Average Annual Treasury Bill Rates 1990 - 2007 YEAR AVG RATE Average Treasury Bill Rate was 22.7% 1990 26.76% 1991 25.40% between 1990 and 2007! 1992 37.08% 1993 48.90% 1994 33.97% Average Annual Treasury Bill Rates 1995 25.43% 1990 - 2007 1996 31.08% 60.00% 1997 18.80% 1998 22.68% 50.00% 1999 18.76% Average Annual T'Bill Rate 40.00% 2000 16.72% 2001 15.42% 30.00% 2002 14.41% 2003 22.54% 20.00% 2004 14.20% 10.00% 2005 12.60% 2006 12.02% 0.00% 2007 11.86% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: Bank of Jamaica (1993 – 2007) Economic and Social Survey of Jamaica (1990 - 1992)
  • 7. Average Annual Treasury Bill Rates 2008 - 2011 Average Treasury Bill Rate was 12.03% between 2008 and 2011 and the lowest in 30 YEAR AVG RATE years! 2008 14.69% 2009 18.12% Average Annual Treasury Bill Rates 2010 8.84% 2008 - 2011 2011 6.47% 20.00% 15.00% Source: Bank of Jamaica 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% 2008 2009 2010 2011 Series1
  • 8. GOJ Domestic Debt 1990/91 – 2010/11 Fiscal Year Domestic Debt J$ Millions During the period 1990/91 – 2010/11, GOJ 1990/91 11,869 domestic debt increased by 4,200% in 1991/92 12,078 1992/93 20,462 aggregate or at a compounded annual rate of 1993/94 31,699 26.6% per annum 1994/95 50,138 1995/96 57,675 GOJ Domestic Debt 1996/97 85,181 1997/98 101,540 1990/91 - 2006/07 1998/99 139,204 600,000 500,000 1999/00 175,323 J$ Millions 400,000 2000/01 215,084 300,000 2001/02 300,202 200,000 2002/03 366,158 100,000 2003/04 417,531 - 2004/05 449,248 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2005/06 482,713 2006/07 513,931 Source: Debt Management Unit, Ministry of Finance
  • 9. GOJ Domestic Debt 2007/08 – 2010/11 Fiscal Year Domestic Debt J$ Millions During the period 2007/08 – 2010/11, GOJ 2007/08 562,108 domestic debt increased by 43% or at a 2008/09 651,657 2009/10 758,700 compounded annual rate of 12.9% per annum 2010/11 809,370 Source: Debt Management Unit, GOJ Domestc Debt Ministry of Finance 2007/08 - 2010/11 1,200,000 900,000 J$ Millions 600,000 300,000 - 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11
  • 10. GOJ External Debt 1990/91 – 2006/07 Fiscal Year External Debt J$ Million Equivalent During the period 1990/91 – 2010/11, GOJ 1990/91 33,903 external debt (measured in J$) increased by 1991/92 103,757 1992/93 79,875 1,100% in aggregate or at a compounded 1993/94 120,577 annual rate of 16.8% per annum 1994/95 120,632 1995/96 136,168 GOJ External Debt (J$ Equivalent) 1996/97 113,121 1990/91 - 2006/07 1997/98 117,643 450,000 400,000 1998/99 123,099 350,000 1999/00 133,365 300,000 J$ Millions 2000/01 165,557 250,000 200,000 2001/02 196,881 150,000 2002/03 235,083 100,000 50,000 2003/04 276,316 - 2004/05 310,450 2005/06 364,639 2006/07 409,193 Source: Debt Management Unit, Ministry of Finance
  • 11. GOJ External Debt 2007/08 – 2010/11 Fiscal Year External Debt During the period 2007/08 – 2010/11, GOJ J$ Million Equivalent 2007/08 438,567 external debt (measured in J$) increased by 2008/09 548,665 73% in aggregate or at a compounded annual 2009/10 676,055 rate of 20% per annum 2010/11 760,990 Source: Debt Management Unit, Ministry of Finance GOJ External Debt (J$ Equivalent) 2007/08 – 2010/11 800,000 600,000 J$ Millions 400,000 200,000 - 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11
  • 12. GOJ Total Debt 1990/91 – 2006/07 Fiscal Year Total Debt J$ Million During the period 1990/91 – 2006/07, GOJ 1990/91 45,772 Total Debt increased by 1,900% in aggregate 1991/92 115,835 or at a compounded annual rate of 20.7% per 1992/93 100,337 annum 1993/94 152,276 1994/95 170,770 1995/96 193,843 GOJ Total Debt 1996/97 198,302 1990/91 - 2006/07 1997/98 219,183 1,000,000 1998/99 262,303 900,000 800,000 1999/00 308,688 700,000 J$ Millions 600,000 2000/01 380,641 500,000 2001/02 497,083 400,000 300,000 2002/03 601,241 200,000 100,000 2003/04 693,847 - 2004/05 759,697 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2005/06 847,351 2006/07 923,124 Source: Debt Management Unit, Ministry of Finance
  • 13. GOJ Total Debt 2007/08 – 2010/11 Fiscal Year Total Debt During the period 2007/08 – 2010/11, GOJ J$ Millions 2007/08 1,000,676 total debt (measured in J$) increased by 57% 2008/09 1,200,322 in aggregate or at a compounded annual rate 2009/10 1,434,756 of 16.2% per annum 2010/11 1,570,360 Source: Debt GOJ Total Debt Management 2007/08 - 2010/11 Unit, Ministry of Finance 1,500,000 Axis Title 1,000,000 500,000 - 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11
  • 14. Debt/GDP 1990/91 – 2006/07 Fiscal Year Debt/GDP Debt/GDP Ratio 1990/91 120.63% 1990/91 - 2010/11 1991/92 193.53% 200.00% 1992/93 105.64% Debt/GDP Ratio 1993/94 116.52% 150.00% 1994/95 99.45% 100.00% 1995/96 91.10% 1996/97 71.35% 50.00% 1997/98 72.33% 1998/99 80.84% 0.00% 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 1999/00 86.56% 2000/01 97.05% 2001/02 115.66% 2002/03 124.69% 2003/04 122.02% 2004/05 119.42% 2005/06 118.73% 2006/07 113.23% 2007/08 108.45% 2008/09 115.69% 2009/10 129.35% 2010/11 128.30% Source: Debt Management Unit, Ministry of Finance
  • 15. Between 1991 and 2007, average GDP growth in Jamaica was 0.82% per annum