Economic Indicators and Monthly Overview November 2013

1. Economic Indicators
Last update 15.11.2013
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2. Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – October 2013
Europe:
• Consensus November GDP forecast for WE remained on 0,0% for 2013 and on 1,3% for 2014.
• The EU industrial confidence improved again compared to last month while the consumer
confidence indicator remained stable on the same level as in September.
• The IFO Business Climate index for Germany fell slightly for the first time after five increases.
Both, the business expectations and the current business situation were assessed slightly less
favorably than in the previous month. The German economy has not yet moved fully into gear.
• The ECB rather surprisingly cut the target interest rate by 0,25%points on November 13 to the
historically low level of 0,25%. Fears over a deflationary environment along with recent gains in
the Euro, threatening the export-led recovery prompted ECB to act.
US:
• Consensus November GDP forecast for the US improved from 1,6% to 1,7% for 2013 and
remained on 2,6% for 2014.
• US growth accelerated in Q3 to 2,8% q-o-q and this month’s upbeat employment report
suggests that the government shutdown may not have hurt activity as badly as previously
feared.
Japan:
• The November GDP growth forecast for Japan again remained stable on 1,9% for 2013 and
slightly came down from 1,7% to 1,6% for 2014.
• Muted wage growth remains a burden to the outlook while many other of the country’s
parameters have improved during the last months.
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3. Eurostat Data
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4. 13 Q1
12 Q1
'11 Q1
'10 Q1
'09 Q1
'08 Q1
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
'07Q1
%
Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27
GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter vs. same quarter of last year
Source: Eurostat Sep 13
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5. Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27
1
0,5
0
%
-0,5
-1
-1,5
-2
13 Q1
12 Q1
'11 Q1
'10 Q1
'09 Q1
'08 Q1
'07Q1
-2,5
GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter
Source: Eurostat Sep 13
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6. Economic Indicators –EU 27 Consumer Price Index
4,5
4
3,5
3
2,5
2
1,5
1
0,5
0
13/1
12/1
11/1
10/1
09/1
0,9
08/1
%
The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration
between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.
Source: Eurostat Nov 13
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7. Eurozone inflation
Oct 13; 0,7
ECB short-term rate
Jan 15
Jul.14
Jan 14
Jul.13
Jan 13
Jul.12
Jan 12
July 11
Jan 11
Jul.10
Jan 10
Jul.09
Nov.13; 0,25
Nov.13; 0,25
Jan 09
July 08
4,5
4,0
3,5
3,0
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5 FED rate
0,0
-0,5
Jan 08
%
Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate
Source: ECB, FED Nov 13
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8. Economic Indicators –EU 27 Unemployment Rate
12
11
11
%
10
9
8
7
Jan 13
Jan 12
Jan 11
Jan 10
Jan 09
Jan 08
6
Unemployment rate for EU 27 countries
Source: Eurostat Nov 13
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9. Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU
Industrial confidence within EU 27 improved again in October.
Jan 14
Jan 13
Jan 12
Jan 11
Jan 10
Jan 09
Jan 08
Jan 07
Jan 06
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
-40
The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the
questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.
Source: Eurostat Nov 13
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10. Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU
Consumer Confidence within EU 27 in October did not change from September.
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
Jan 14
Jan 13
Jan 12
Jan 11
Jan 10
Jan 09
Jan 08
Jan 07
Jan 06
-35
The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions
on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future)
together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.
Source: Eurostat Nov 13
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11. Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization
in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27
85
79,5
80
75
%
70
65
13Q1
12Q1
11Q1
10Q1
09Q1
08Q1
07Q1
06Q1
05Q1
04Q1
60
The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization
in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.
Source: Eurostat Nov 13
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12. Ifo Data
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13. Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate
The Ifo World Economic climate brightens in Q4 2013
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
Source: IFO Nov 13
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14. Economic Indicators – IFO European Economic Climate
The economic climate for Europe brightens significantly in Q4 2013.
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
Source: IFO Nov 13
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15. Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
Source: IFO Nov 13
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16. Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area
Source: IFO Oct 13
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17. Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany
Source: IFO Oct 13
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18. Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs €
Source: IFO Nov 13
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19. Economic Indicators –
Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations
6 months expectations
Business situation
Jan 13
Jan 12
Jan 11
Jan 10
Jan 09
Jan 08
Jan 13
Jan 12
Jan 11
Jan 10
Jan 09
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
Jan 08
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany fell slightly for the first time after 5 increases.
Firms assessed their business outlook slightly less optimistically than in the last month.
Assessments of the current business situation were somewhat less positive, but remain above
average. The German economy has not yet moved fully into gear.
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the
economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next
6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed.
Source: IFO Nov 13
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20. Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current
Business Situation
The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany fell slightly for the first time after 5 increases.
Firms assessed their business outlook slightly less optimistically than in the last month.
Assessments of the current business situation were somewhat less positive, but remain above
average. The German economy has not yet moved fully into gear.
Source: IFO Nov 13
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21. Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index
printing industry
The business climate within the printing industry decreased to -3 in October.
Jan 14
Jan 13
Jan 12
Jan 11
Jan 10
Jan 09
Jan 08
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is
based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.
Source: IFO Nov 13, bundesverband druck und medien
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22. Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index
printing industry
Business Development at German Printers – October 2013:
 The assessment of the current business situation in the printing
industry improved compared to the last month to now 7%, which is
also 5% points above the same month of last year.
 The business climate – an indicator for the development in
the next quarter – came down from last month to now -3%, thus also
remaining below the value of October last year.
 The business expectations for the coming 6 months worsened to -13%.
In October 2012 the value was slightly better at -9%.
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is
based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.
Source: IFO Nov 13, bundesverband druck und medien
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23. Zenith Data
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24. Advertising Growth – Zenith 9/13 Press release
Source: ZenithOptimedia 9/13
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25. Advertising Growth – Zenith 9/13 Press release
Source: ZenithOptimedia 9/13
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26. Advertising Growth – Zenith 9/13 Press release
Source: ZenithOptimedia 9/13
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27. Advertising Growth – Zenith 9/13 Press release
Source: ZenithOptimedia 9/13
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