1. Working with Policy Makers

2. • Hard Decisions
• Appropriate responses?
• Scientific uncertainty
• Damned if you do …
• Benefits of hindsight

3. Volcanoes and
Volcanic Ash Clouds
Could we have predicted?
• 30 potentially active volcanic systems in Iceland
• 205 historical eruptions (average 25 per 100
years),
• Periodicity of volcanism in SE Iceland of ~140
years.
Impact of Prevailing winds
Source: BBC
Frequency of explosive and partly explosive Icelandic eruptions since 850AD
(per 20-years)
The Eyjafjallajökull Volcano
Thordarson and Larsen 2007

4. Cause and Effect
Knock on effects of Global
events/ disasters

5. Uncertainty
National Risk Register 2010 Edition Risk Matrix

6. A Version of the Policy Cycle

7. Science and Analysis on the Inside
• The ‘Analytical’ Professions
• Heads of Analysis Group
• Departmental Heads of Profession
• Departmental Chief Scientific Advisors and
Directors of Analysis
• Cross Government networks – CSAC and
DDAN