SlideShare une entreprise Scribd logo
1  sur  18
Télécharger pour lire hors ligne
2Q2013 Land
Forecast Report
Scott Davis
CASE Commercial Real Estate Partners
July 18, 2013
Sales Activity Not Reflected in Volume in Q2
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
2005-…
2005-…
2005-…
2005-…
2006-…
2006-…
2006-…
2006-…
2007-…
2007-…
2007-…
2007-…
2008-…
2008-…
2008-…
2008-…
2009-…
2009-…
2009-…
2009-…
2010-…
2010-…
2010-…
2010-…
2011-…
2011-…
2011-…
2011-…
2012-…
2012-…
2012-…
2012-…
2013-…
2013-…
Millions
Source: CoStar, CASE Commercial
Unreported sales prices
depress appearance of
activity.
2Q13 – 4,000 Acres Sold – Activity Remains Strong
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2005-…
2005-…
2005-…
2005-…
2006-…
2006-…
2006-…
2006-…
2007-…
2007-…
2007-…
2007-…
2008-…
2008-…
2008-…
2008-…
2009-…
2009-…
2009-…
2009-…
2010-…
2010-…
2010-…
2010-…
2011-…
2011-…
2011-…
2011-…
2012-…
2012-…
2012-…
2012-…
2013-…
Source: CoStar, CASE Commercial
Almost 93% of acreage sold outside Beltway
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2009
- Q1
2009
- Q2
2009
- Q3
2009
- Q4
2010
- Q1
2010
- Q2
2010
- Q3
2010
- Q4
2011
- Q1
2011
- Q2
2011
- Q3
2011
- Q4
2012
- Q1
2012
- Q2
2012
- Q3
2012
- Q4
2013
- Q1
2013
- Q2
Total Outside 610 Outside Beltway Inside Beltway Inside 610
Source: CoStar, CASE Commercial
Inner Loop Properties Fell Off Dramatically
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2009
- Q2
2009
- Q3
2009
- Q4
2010
- Q1
2010
- Q2
2010
- Q3
2010
- Q4
2011
- Q1
2011
- Q2
2011
- Q3
2011
- Q4
2012
- Q1
2012
- Q2
2012
- Q3
2012
- Q4
2013
- Q1
2013
- Q2
Source: CoStar, CASE Commercial
Sales to List Spread Narrows to 2007-2008 Levels
Source: CoStar, CASE Commercial
-50.0%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
2007-Q1
2007-Q2
2007-Q3
2007-Q4
2008-Q1
2008-Q2
2008-Q3
2008-Q4
2009-Q1
2009-Q2
2009-Q3
2009-Q4
2010-Q1
2010-Q2
2010-Q3
2010-Q4
2011-Q1
2011-Q2
2011-Q3
2011-Q4
2012-Q1
2012-Q2
2012-Q3
2012-Q4
2013-Q1
2013-Q2
Median Days on Market Decreased in Q2/13
Source: CoStar, CASE Commercial
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2005-Q1
2005-Q2
2005-Q3
2005-Q4
2006-Q1
2006-Q2
2006-Q3
2006-Q4
2007-Q1
2007-Q2
2007-Q3
2007-Q4
2008-Q1
2008-Q2
2008-Q3
2008-Q4
2009-Q1
2009-Q2
2009-Q3
2009-Q4
2010-Q1
2010-Q2
2010-Q3
2010-Q4
2011-Q1
2011-Q2
2011-Q3
2011-Q4
2012-Q1
2012-Q2
2012-Q3
2012-Q4
2013-Q1
2013-Q2
What Does the Future Hold?
2.2
3.1
3.7
4.7
5.9
7.0
8.1
9.2
0.9
1.6 1.8
2.3 2.6
3.2
3.7
4.1
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
People
Jobs
Region will grow by 3.3 Million
Source: HGAC Demographic Model
In Millions
Gen Y: Millions of 22YO By Year
3,400,000
3,500,000
3,600,000
3,700,000
3,800,000
3,900,000
4,000,000
4,100,000
4,200,000
Age 22 Age 25
Peak Rental Demand Peak Owner Demand
Source: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Houston #2 Destination For Millennials
Rank Metro Area
Wage Change for
Gen Y
Median Pay for Gen
Y
Commute
Time for
Gen Y % Gen Y
Gen Y Metro
Score
1 Seattle 4.4% $ 44,000 24.3 0.22 1.61
2 Houston 4.3% $ 44,000 24.8 0.22 1.52
3 Minneapolis 3.3% $ 42,800 20.4 0.23 1.46
4 Washington, DC 3.2% $ 49,500 30 0.26 1.25
5 Boston 3.3% $ 46,200 29.9 0.25 1.16
6 Dallas 2.9% $ 41,200 20.6 0.21 1.11
7 New York 2.9% $ 46,900 30.6 0.26 1.04
8 Tampa 2.7% $ 36,600 20.7 0.19 0.83
9 - Tie Philadelphia 2.6% $ 42,000 28.7 0.23 0.81
9 - Tie San Francisco 2.2% $ 51,300 29.3 0.22 0.81
Source: Best Cities for Gen Y, www.payscale.com, 2012
Where People Want to Live, by
Generation
14% 15% 14% 18%
31%
39% 38% 38%
47%
42%
46% 47% 47%
34%
25%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
60+ (Silent + GI) 50-59 (Boomer) 40-49 (Boomer &
Gen X)
30-39 (Gen X &
Gen Y)
18-29 (Gen Y)
City Suburban Small Town
Source: 2011 National Community Preference Survey, NAR, March 2011
Where Do They Actually Live?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Core Municipalities Suburbs Outside Major Metropolitan Areas
2000% of Age 20-29 2010% of Age 20-29
Source: Wendell Cox, www.newgeography.com
Gen Y Still Want Single Family
Fall 2007 “Home
Type Likely to
Choose”
Summer 2010
“Anticipated
Housing in 2015”
March 2011
“Home Type
Preference”
Apartment/Condo 12% 25% 15%
Rowhouse/Townhouse 12% 6% 6%
Single-Family 70% 64% 74%
Other 5% 5% n/a
Source: RCLCO Survey, 207, ULI/Lachman Survey 2010, NAR Consumer
Preference Study 2011
Gen X & Gen Y Favor Lifestyle
Factors – Close to Work, Shopping
71%
55%
52%
42%
51%
62%
46%
43%
49% 47%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Small Lot, Walk to
Work
Small Lot, Walk to
Shop
Less than Ideal
Home, Close to
Shop
Less than Ideal
Home, Close to
Work
Urban Setting
Gen Y Gen X
15
Source: Robert Charles Lesser Co.
16
Job Growth in Suburban Centers
Market 2013 2020 Growth
Inside Loop
Bellaire 34,438 38,320 11.3%
Greenway 63,143 68,148 7.9%
CBD 148,117 153,970 4.0%
TMC 107,344 116,272 8.3%
Galleria 134,162 136,999 2.1%
Inside Beltway
Greenspoint 91,343 100,042 9.5%
Brookhollow 25,526 26,271 2.9%
Northwest Crossing 53,149 56,065 5.5%
Sharpstown 39,327 40,360 2.6%
Westchase 96,223 100,183 4.1%
Outside Beltway
Clear lake 48,897 50,628 3.5%
Katy 18,707 21,591 15.4%
The Woodlands 48,805 55,398 13.5%
West Houston 102,795 108,760 5.8%
Sugar Land 86,934 101,129 16.3%
Total Market 2,959,033 3,275,509 10.7%
Source: HGAC, 2035 Regional Transportation Plan
Houston #1 in Self-Employment Growth
Rank Region Growth in Self-employed, 2008-2011
1 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX 12.20%
2 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 11.80%
3 Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ 11.50%
4 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 10.00%
5 Baltimore-Towson, MD 8.60%
6 San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 8.10%
7 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 6.50%
8 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 6.30%
9 Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH 5.60%
10 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL 4.90%
Land Growth Trends
• Houston will grow dramatically over the next
two decades
• Gen Y will drive some inner-city interest but
still has overwhelming suburban preference
• Real preference by Gen X and Gen Y is for a
shorter commute and close to shopping
• Most job growth will be in the suburbs

Contenu connexe

Tendances

Young & Free: building relationships through social media.
Young & Free: building relationships through social media.Young & Free: building relationships through social media.
Young & Free: building relationships through social media.Tim McAlpine
 
Excel suzette
Excel suzetteExcel suzette
Excel suzettelandiza
 
JLL Detroit Office Insight & Statistics - Q3 2019
JLL Detroit Office Insight & Statistics - Q3 2019JLL Detroit Office Insight & Statistics - Q3 2019
JLL Detroit Office Insight & Statistics - Q3 2019Harrison West
 
Luxury Connect - Allan Weiss
Luxury Connect - Allan WeissLuxury Connect - Allan Weiss
Luxury Connect - Allan WeissInman News
 
Business Insurance Top 10 Brokers and AJG Profile 2016
Business Insurance Top 10 Brokers and AJG Profile 2016Business Insurance Top 10 Brokers and AJG Profile 2016
Business Insurance Top 10 Brokers and AJG Profile 2016Brendon Pollis
 

Tendances (7)

Young & Free: building relationships through social media.
Young & Free: building relationships through social media.Young & Free: building relationships through social media.
Young & Free: building relationships through social media.
 
Excel suzette
Excel suzetteExcel suzette
Excel suzette
 
Tx
TxTx
Tx
 
JLL Detroit Office Insight & Statistics - Q3 2019
JLL Detroit Office Insight & Statistics - Q3 2019JLL Detroit Office Insight & Statistics - Q3 2019
JLL Detroit Office Insight & Statistics - Q3 2019
 
Luxury Connect - Allan Weiss
Luxury Connect - Allan WeissLuxury Connect - Allan Weiss
Luxury Connect - Allan Weiss
 
Business Insurance Top 10 Brokers and AJG Profile 2016
Business Insurance Top 10 Brokers and AJG Profile 2016Business Insurance Top 10 Brokers and AJG Profile 2016
Business Insurance Top 10 Brokers and AJG Profile 2016
 
Condo report q1-2013
Condo report q1-2013Condo report q1-2013
Condo report q1-2013
 

En vedette

Presentation to UH Presidents Council Nov 6 2013
Presentation to UH Presidents Council Nov 6 2013Presentation to UH Presidents Council Nov 6 2013
Presentation to UH Presidents Council Nov 6 2013Scott Davis
 
Presentation to O'Connor and Associates Land Forecast 051414
Presentation to O'Connor and Associates Land Forecast 051414Presentation to O'Connor and Associates Land Forecast 051414
Presentation to O'Connor and Associates Land Forecast 051414Scott Davis
 
Love the one youre with slide deck pmi houston 061213
Love the one youre with slide deck pmi houston 061213Love the one youre with slide deck pmi houston 061213
Love the one youre with slide deck pmi houston 061213Scott Davis
 
Short Linked In presentation
Short Linked In presentationShort Linked In presentation
Short Linked In presentationScott Davis
 
Love The One You’re With - Tomball Chamber of Commerce
Love The One You’re With - Tomball Chamber of CommerceLove The One You’re With - Tomball Chamber of Commerce
Love The One You’re With - Tomball Chamber of CommerceScott Davis
 
Love The One You're With - AOS Dad's Club
Love The One You're With - AOS Dad's ClubLove The One You're With - AOS Dad's Club
Love The One You're With - AOS Dad's ClubScott Davis
 

En vedette (7)

Presentation to UH Presidents Council Nov 6 2013
Presentation to UH Presidents Council Nov 6 2013Presentation to UH Presidents Council Nov 6 2013
Presentation to UH Presidents Council Nov 6 2013
 
Presentation to O'Connor and Associates Land Forecast 051414
Presentation to O'Connor and Associates Land Forecast 051414Presentation to O'Connor and Associates Land Forecast 051414
Presentation to O'Connor and Associates Land Forecast 051414
 
Love the one youre with slide deck pmi houston 061213
Love the one youre with slide deck pmi houston 061213Love the one youre with slide deck pmi houston 061213
Love the one youre with slide deck pmi houston 061213
 
Short Linked In presentation
Short Linked In presentationShort Linked In presentation
Short Linked In presentation
 
Flood 2011
Flood 2011Flood 2011
Flood 2011
 
Love The One You’re With - Tomball Chamber of Commerce
Love The One You’re With - Tomball Chamber of CommerceLove The One You’re With - Tomball Chamber of Commerce
Love The One You’re With - Tomball Chamber of Commerce
 
Love The One You're With - AOS Dad's Club
Love The One You're With - AOS Dad's ClubLove The One You're With - AOS Dad's Club
Love The One You're With - AOS Dad's Club
 

Similaire à 2q2103 land report

November Market Watch 2020
November Market Watch 2020November Market Watch 2020
November Market Watch 2020Michelle Makos
 
Full Market April Market Watch 2022
Full Market April Market Watch 2022Full Market April Market Watch 2022
Full Market April Market Watch 2022Michelle Makos
 
Market Watch APRIL 2015
Market Watch APRIL 2015Market Watch APRIL 2015
Market Watch APRIL 2015Chaba Tamasi
 
September 2020 - Market Report - Toronto & GTA Housing Sales
September 2020 - Market Report - Toronto & GTA Housing SalesSeptember 2020 - Market Report - Toronto & GTA Housing Sales
September 2020 - Market Report - Toronto & GTA Housing SalesMichelle Makos
 
November 2021 Market Watch
November 2021 Market WatchNovember 2021 Market Watch
November 2021 Market WatchMichelle Makos
 
JLL Detroit Office Insight & Statistics - Q3 2017
JLL Detroit Office Insight & Statistics - Q3 2017JLL Detroit Office Insight & Statistics - Q3 2017
JLL Detroit Office Insight & Statistics - Q3 2017Harrison West
 
AIER_2015_CDI_brochure
AIER_2015_CDI_brochureAIER_2015_CDI_brochure
AIER_2015_CDI_brochureTodd Hoffman
 
Market Stats for October 2021
Market Stats for October 2021Market Stats for October 2021
Market Stats for October 2021Michelle Makos
 
June Market Report 2014
June Market Report 2014June Market Report 2014
June Market Report 2014Michelle Makos
 
Market Watch June 2013
Market Watch June 2013Market Watch June 2013
Market Watch June 2013Chaba Tamasi
 
JLL Detroit Office Insight & Statistics - Q2 2017
JLL Detroit Office Insight & Statistics - Q2 2017JLL Detroit Office Insight & Statistics - Q2 2017
JLL Detroit Office Insight & Statistics - Q2 2017Harrison West
 
Vancouver-West Statistics December 2022
Vancouver-West Statistics December 2022Vancouver-West Statistics December 2022
Vancouver-West Statistics December 2022VickyAulakh1
 
JLL Downtown Chicago Office Market Update - Q3 2016
JLL Downtown Chicago Office Market Update - Q3 2016JLL Downtown Chicago Office Market Update - Q3 2016
JLL Downtown Chicago Office Market Update - Q3 2016Hailey Harrington
 
July 2021 - Market Report
July 2021 - Market Report July 2021 - Market Report
July 2021 - Market Report Michelle Makos
 
JLL Detroit Office Insight & Statistics - Q3 2018
JLL Detroit Office Insight & Statistics - Q3 2018JLL Detroit Office Insight & Statistics - Q3 2018
JLL Detroit Office Insight & Statistics - Q3 2018Harrison West
 
JLL Report - Downtown Cleveland FAQs
JLL Report - Downtown Cleveland FAQsJLL Report - Downtown Cleveland FAQs
JLL Report - Downtown Cleveland FAQsAndrew Batson
 
Examining the Housing Market in Metro Atlanta
Examining the Housing Market in Metro AtlantaExamining the Housing Market in Metro Atlanta
Examining the Housing Market in Metro AtlantaARCResearch
 
JLL Detroit Office Insight & Statistics - Q1 2019
JLL Detroit Office Insight & Statistics - Q1 2019JLL Detroit Office Insight & Statistics - Q1 2019
JLL Detroit Office Insight & Statistics - Q1 2019Harrison West
 
Vancouver West Stats Centre Report
Vancouver West Stats Centre ReportVancouver West Stats Centre Report
Vancouver West Stats Centre ReportVicky Aulakh
 
Saratoga Partnership Unveils Inaugural Hospitality & Tourism Index: Thriving ...
Saratoga Partnership Unveils Inaugural Hospitality & Tourism Index: Thriving ...Saratoga Partnership Unveils Inaugural Hospitality & Tourism Index: Thriving ...
Saratoga Partnership Unveils Inaugural Hospitality & Tourism Index: Thriving ...Shelby Schneider
 

Similaire à 2q2103 land report (20)

November Market Watch 2020
November Market Watch 2020November Market Watch 2020
November Market Watch 2020
 
Full Market April Market Watch 2022
Full Market April Market Watch 2022Full Market April Market Watch 2022
Full Market April Market Watch 2022
 
Market Watch APRIL 2015
Market Watch APRIL 2015Market Watch APRIL 2015
Market Watch APRIL 2015
 
September 2020 - Market Report - Toronto & GTA Housing Sales
September 2020 - Market Report - Toronto & GTA Housing SalesSeptember 2020 - Market Report - Toronto & GTA Housing Sales
September 2020 - Market Report - Toronto & GTA Housing Sales
 
November 2021 Market Watch
November 2021 Market WatchNovember 2021 Market Watch
November 2021 Market Watch
 
JLL Detroit Office Insight & Statistics - Q3 2017
JLL Detroit Office Insight & Statistics - Q3 2017JLL Detroit Office Insight & Statistics - Q3 2017
JLL Detroit Office Insight & Statistics - Q3 2017
 
AIER_2015_CDI_brochure
AIER_2015_CDI_brochureAIER_2015_CDI_brochure
AIER_2015_CDI_brochure
 
Market Stats for October 2021
Market Stats for October 2021Market Stats for October 2021
Market Stats for October 2021
 
June Market Report 2014
June Market Report 2014June Market Report 2014
June Market Report 2014
 
Market Watch June 2013
Market Watch June 2013Market Watch June 2013
Market Watch June 2013
 
JLL Detroit Office Insight & Statistics - Q2 2017
JLL Detroit Office Insight & Statistics - Q2 2017JLL Detroit Office Insight & Statistics - Q2 2017
JLL Detroit Office Insight & Statistics - Q2 2017
 
Vancouver-West Statistics December 2022
Vancouver-West Statistics December 2022Vancouver-West Statistics December 2022
Vancouver-West Statistics December 2022
 
JLL Downtown Chicago Office Market Update - Q3 2016
JLL Downtown Chicago Office Market Update - Q3 2016JLL Downtown Chicago Office Market Update - Q3 2016
JLL Downtown Chicago Office Market Update - Q3 2016
 
July 2021 - Market Report
July 2021 - Market Report July 2021 - Market Report
July 2021 - Market Report
 
JLL Detroit Office Insight & Statistics - Q3 2018
JLL Detroit Office Insight & Statistics - Q3 2018JLL Detroit Office Insight & Statistics - Q3 2018
JLL Detroit Office Insight & Statistics - Q3 2018
 
JLL Report - Downtown Cleveland FAQs
JLL Report - Downtown Cleveland FAQsJLL Report - Downtown Cleveland FAQs
JLL Report - Downtown Cleveland FAQs
 
Examining the Housing Market in Metro Atlanta
Examining the Housing Market in Metro AtlantaExamining the Housing Market in Metro Atlanta
Examining the Housing Market in Metro Atlanta
 
JLL Detroit Office Insight & Statistics - Q1 2019
JLL Detroit Office Insight & Statistics - Q1 2019JLL Detroit Office Insight & Statistics - Q1 2019
JLL Detroit Office Insight & Statistics - Q1 2019
 
Vancouver West Stats Centre Report
Vancouver West Stats Centre ReportVancouver West Stats Centre Report
Vancouver West Stats Centre Report
 
Saratoga Partnership Unveils Inaugural Hospitality & Tourism Index: Thriving ...
Saratoga Partnership Unveils Inaugural Hospitality & Tourism Index: Thriving ...Saratoga Partnership Unveils Inaugural Hospitality & Tourism Index: Thriving ...
Saratoga Partnership Unveils Inaugural Hospitality & Tourism Index: Thriving ...
 

Plus de Scott Davis

Waller EDP Presentation July 2014
Waller EDP Presentation July 2014Waller EDP Presentation July 2014
Waller EDP Presentation July 2014Scott Davis
 
Presentation to Security State Bank
Presentation to Security State BankPresentation to Security State Bank
Presentation to Security State BankScott Davis
 
How the Generations Celebrate Thanksgiving
How the Generations Celebrate ThanksgivingHow the Generations Celebrate Thanksgiving
How the Generations Celebrate ThanksgivingScott Davis
 
Friendswood medical office building
Friendswood medical office buildingFriendswood medical office building
Friendswood medical office buildingScott Davis
 
Mind the gap church building in a six generation world version 2
Mind the gap church building in a six generation world version 2Mind the gap church building in a six generation world version 2
Mind the gap church building in a six generation world version 2Scott Davis
 
Love the one youre with slide deck 061813
Love the one youre with slide deck 061813Love the one youre with slide deck 061813
Love the one youre with slide deck 061813Scott Davis
 

Plus de Scott Davis (6)

Waller EDP Presentation July 2014
Waller EDP Presentation July 2014Waller EDP Presentation July 2014
Waller EDP Presentation July 2014
 
Presentation to Security State Bank
Presentation to Security State BankPresentation to Security State Bank
Presentation to Security State Bank
 
How the Generations Celebrate Thanksgiving
How the Generations Celebrate ThanksgivingHow the Generations Celebrate Thanksgiving
How the Generations Celebrate Thanksgiving
 
Friendswood medical office building
Friendswood medical office buildingFriendswood medical office building
Friendswood medical office building
 
Mind the gap church building in a six generation world version 2
Mind the gap church building in a six generation world version 2Mind the gap church building in a six generation world version 2
Mind the gap church building in a six generation world version 2
 
Love the one youre with slide deck 061813
Love the one youre with slide deck 061813Love the one youre with slide deck 061813
Love the one youre with slide deck 061813
 

Dernier

Points to Consider Before Finalizing on a Property.
Points to Consider Before Finalizing on a Property.Points to Consider Before Finalizing on a Property.
Points to Consider Before Finalizing on a Property.Sunil Agrawal and Associates
 
Kalpataru Jade Skyline Baner Pune | A New Way Of Living At An Affordable Price
Kalpataru Jade Skyline Baner Pune | A New Way Of Living At An Affordable PriceKalpataru Jade Skyline Baner Pune | A New Way Of Living At An Affordable Price
Kalpataru Jade Skyline Baner Pune | A New Way Of Living At An Affordable Priceaidasheikh47
 
LCAR Unit 13 - The Real Estate Business - 14th Edition Revised
LCAR Unit 13 - The Real Estate Business - 14th Edition RevisedLCAR Unit 13 - The Real Estate Business - 14th Edition Revised
LCAR Unit 13 - The Real Estate Business - 14th Edition RevisedTom Blefko
 
Anshul Kanvas Wagholi Pune Apartments Brochure.pdf
Anshul Kanvas Wagholi Pune Apartments Brochure.pdfAnshul Kanvas Wagholi Pune Apartments Brochure.pdf
Anshul Kanvas Wagholi Pune Apartments Brochure.pdfsabhyara24
 
SVN Live 3.25.24 Weekly Property Broadcast
SVN Live 3.25.24 Weekly Property BroadcastSVN Live 3.25.24 Weekly Property Broadcast
SVN Live 3.25.24 Weekly Property BroadcastSVN International Corp.
 
2023 NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers
2023 NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers2023 NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers
2023 NAR Profile of Home Buyers and SellersTom Blefko
 
Signature Global Sector 84 In Gurugram | Easy Living
Signature Global Sector 84 In Gurugram | Easy LivingSignature Global Sector 84 In Gurugram | Easy Living
Signature Global Sector 84 In Gurugram | Easy Livingbhattrishabh270
 
K Raheja Amaltis Sion Mumbai | A Return To Better Living
K Raheja Amaltis Sion Mumbai | A Return To Better LivingK Raheja Amaltis Sion Mumbai | A Return To Better Living
K Raheja Amaltis Sion Mumbai | A Return To Better Livingaidasheikh47
 
Commercial Lots for Sale - Pederson Crossing Blvd., DeForest,WI
Commercial Lots for Sale - Pederson Crossing Blvd., DeForest,WICommercial Lots for Sale - Pederson Crossing Blvd., DeForest,WI
Commercial Lots for Sale - Pederson Crossing Blvd., DeForest,WILee & Associates of Madison, WI
 
Acqua Eden Bhutani Goa Brochure Download
Acqua Eden Bhutani Goa Brochure DownloadAcqua Eden Bhutani Goa Brochure Download
Acqua Eden Bhutani Goa Brochure DownloadMKBInfotech
 
4 & 5 BHK Spacious Apartments for sale in Anamika High Point, Off SG Highway ...
4 & 5 BHK Spacious Apartments for sale in Anamika High Point, Off SG Highway ...4 & 5 BHK Spacious Apartments for sale in Anamika High Point, Off SG Highway ...
4 & 5 BHK Spacious Apartments for sale in Anamika High Point, Off SG Highway ...RE/MAX Realty Solutions
 
Anshul Uruli Kanchan Pune E-Brochure.pdf
Anshul Uruli Kanchan Pune  E-Brochure.pdfAnshul Uruli Kanchan Pune  E-Brochure.pdf
Anshul Uruli Kanchan Pune E-Brochure.pdfManishSaxena95
 
Provident Manchester IVC Road Bangalore.pdf
Provident Manchester IVC Road Bangalore.pdfProvident Manchester IVC Road Bangalore.pdf
Provident Manchester IVC Road Bangalore.pdfashiyadav24
 
3 BHK Flats in Zirakpur for Sale - AJ Estates
3 BHK Flats in Zirakpur for Sale - AJ Estates3 BHK Flats in Zirakpur for Sale - AJ Estates
3 BHK Flats in Zirakpur for Sale - AJ EstatesAJ Estates
 
Kohinoor Uptown Avenue at Punawale Pune - Brochure.pdf
Kohinoor Uptown Avenue at Punawale Pune - Brochure.pdfKohinoor Uptown Avenue at Punawale Pune - Brochure.pdf
Kohinoor Uptown Avenue at Punawale Pune - Brochure.pdfmonikasharma630
 
Mantra Akrudi Pune | Lifestyle Amenities Rethink Luxury
Mantra Akrudi Pune | Lifestyle Amenities Rethink LuxuryMantra Akrudi Pune | Lifestyle Amenities Rethink Luxury
Mantra Akrudi Pune | Lifestyle Amenities Rethink Luxuryaidasheikh47
 
2023 NAR Technology Survey - LCAR RE Practice
2023 NAR Technology Survey - LCAR RE Practice2023 NAR Technology Survey - LCAR RE Practice
2023 NAR Technology Survey - LCAR RE PracticeTom Blefko
 
10 Best Property Dealers in Mohali - List Real Estate Property Agents
10 Best Property Dealers in Mohali - List Real Estate Property Agents10 Best Property Dealers in Mohali - List Real Estate Property Agents
10 Best Property Dealers in Mohali - List Real Estate Property AgentsAJ Estates
 

Dernier (20)

Points to Consider Before Finalizing on a Property.
Points to Consider Before Finalizing on a Property.Points to Consider Before Finalizing on a Property.
Points to Consider Before Finalizing on a Property.
 
Kalpataru Jade Skyline Baner Pune | A New Way Of Living At An Affordable Price
Kalpataru Jade Skyline Baner Pune | A New Way Of Living At An Affordable PriceKalpataru Jade Skyline Baner Pune | A New Way Of Living At An Affordable Price
Kalpataru Jade Skyline Baner Pune | A New Way Of Living At An Affordable Price
 
LCAR Unit 13 - The Real Estate Business - 14th Edition Revised
LCAR Unit 13 - The Real Estate Business - 14th Edition RevisedLCAR Unit 13 - The Real Estate Business - 14th Edition Revised
LCAR Unit 13 - The Real Estate Business - 14th Edition Revised
 
Anshul Kanvas Wagholi Pune Apartments Brochure.pdf
Anshul Kanvas Wagholi Pune Apartments Brochure.pdfAnshul Kanvas Wagholi Pune Apartments Brochure.pdf
Anshul Kanvas Wagholi Pune Apartments Brochure.pdf
 
SVN Live 3.25.24 Weekly Property Broadcast
SVN Live 3.25.24 Weekly Property BroadcastSVN Live 3.25.24 Weekly Property Broadcast
SVN Live 3.25.24 Weekly Property Broadcast
 
2023 NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers
2023 NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers2023 NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers
2023 NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers
 
Signature Global Sector 84 In Gurugram | Easy Living
Signature Global Sector 84 In Gurugram | Easy LivingSignature Global Sector 84 In Gurugram | Easy Living
Signature Global Sector 84 In Gurugram | Easy Living
 
K Raheja Amaltis Sion Mumbai | A Return To Better Living
K Raheja Amaltis Sion Mumbai | A Return To Better LivingK Raheja Amaltis Sion Mumbai | A Return To Better Living
K Raheja Amaltis Sion Mumbai | A Return To Better Living
 
Benefits of buying ready to move in flats.
Benefits of buying ready to move in flats.Benefits of buying ready to move in flats.
Benefits of buying ready to move in flats.
 
Commercial Lots for Sale - Pederson Crossing Blvd., DeForest,WI
Commercial Lots for Sale - Pederson Crossing Blvd., DeForest,WICommercial Lots for Sale - Pederson Crossing Blvd., DeForest,WI
Commercial Lots for Sale - Pederson Crossing Blvd., DeForest,WI
 
Acqua Eden Bhutani Goa Brochure Download
Acqua Eden Bhutani Goa Brochure DownloadAcqua Eden Bhutani Goa Brochure Download
Acqua Eden Bhutani Goa Brochure Download
 
4 & 5 BHK Spacious Apartments for sale in Anamika High Point, Off SG Highway ...
4 & 5 BHK Spacious Apartments for sale in Anamika High Point, Off SG Highway ...4 & 5 BHK Spacious Apartments for sale in Anamika High Point, Off SG Highway ...
4 & 5 BHK Spacious Apartments for sale in Anamika High Point, Off SG Highway ...
 
Anshul Uruli Kanchan Pune E-Brochure.pdf
Anshul Uruli Kanchan Pune  E-Brochure.pdfAnshul Uruli Kanchan Pune  E-Brochure.pdf
Anshul Uruli Kanchan Pune E-Brochure.pdf
 
Provident Manchester IVC Road Bangalore.pdf
Provident Manchester IVC Road Bangalore.pdfProvident Manchester IVC Road Bangalore.pdf
Provident Manchester IVC Road Bangalore.pdf
 
3 BHK Flats in Zirakpur for Sale - AJ Estates
3 BHK Flats in Zirakpur for Sale - AJ Estates3 BHK Flats in Zirakpur for Sale - AJ Estates
3 BHK Flats in Zirakpur for Sale - AJ Estates
 
Things to keep in mind while buying property.
Things to keep in mind while buying property.Things to keep in mind while buying property.
Things to keep in mind while buying property.
 
Kohinoor Uptown Avenue at Punawale Pune - Brochure.pdf
Kohinoor Uptown Avenue at Punawale Pune - Brochure.pdfKohinoor Uptown Avenue at Punawale Pune - Brochure.pdf
Kohinoor Uptown Avenue at Punawale Pune - Brochure.pdf
 
Mantra Akrudi Pune | Lifestyle Amenities Rethink Luxury
Mantra Akrudi Pune | Lifestyle Amenities Rethink LuxuryMantra Akrudi Pune | Lifestyle Amenities Rethink Luxury
Mantra Akrudi Pune | Lifestyle Amenities Rethink Luxury
 
2023 NAR Technology Survey - LCAR RE Practice
2023 NAR Technology Survey - LCAR RE Practice2023 NAR Technology Survey - LCAR RE Practice
2023 NAR Technology Survey - LCAR RE Practice
 
10 Best Property Dealers in Mohali - List Real Estate Property Agents
10 Best Property Dealers in Mohali - List Real Estate Property Agents10 Best Property Dealers in Mohali - List Real Estate Property Agents
10 Best Property Dealers in Mohali - List Real Estate Property Agents
 

2q2103 land report

  • 1. 2Q2013 Land Forecast Report Scott Davis CASE Commercial Real Estate Partners July 18, 2013
  • 2. Sales Activity Not Reflected in Volume in Q2 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 2005-… 2005-… 2005-… 2005-… 2006-… 2006-… 2006-… 2006-… 2007-… 2007-… 2007-… 2007-… 2008-… 2008-… 2008-… 2008-… 2009-… 2009-… 2009-… 2009-… 2010-… 2010-… 2010-… 2010-… 2011-… 2011-… 2011-… 2011-… 2012-… 2012-… 2012-… 2012-… 2013-… 2013-… Millions Source: CoStar, CASE Commercial Unreported sales prices depress appearance of activity.
  • 3. 2Q13 – 4,000 Acres Sold – Activity Remains Strong 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 2005-… 2005-… 2005-… 2005-… 2006-… 2006-… 2006-… 2006-… 2007-… 2007-… 2007-… 2007-… 2008-… 2008-… 2008-… 2008-… 2009-… 2009-… 2009-… 2009-… 2010-… 2010-… 2010-… 2010-… 2011-… 2011-… 2011-… 2011-… 2012-… 2012-… 2012-… 2012-… 2013-… Source: CoStar, CASE Commercial
  • 4. Almost 93% of acreage sold outside Beltway 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 2009 - Q1 2009 - Q2 2009 - Q3 2009 - Q4 2010 - Q1 2010 - Q2 2010 - Q3 2010 - Q4 2011 - Q1 2011 - Q2 2011 - Q3 2011 - Q4 2012 - Q1 2012 - Q2 2012 - Q3 2012 - Q4 2013 - Q1 2013 - Q2 Total Outside 610 Outside Beltway Inside Beltway Inside 610 Source: CoStar, CASE Commercial
  • 5. Inner Loop Properties Fell Off Dramatically 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2009 - Q2 2009 - Q3 2009 - Q4 2010 - Q1 2010 - Q2 2010 - Q3 2010 - Q4 2011 - Q1 2011 - Q2 2011 - Q3 2011 - Q4 2012 - Q1 2012 - Q2 2012 - Q3 2012 - Q4 2013 - Q1 2013 - Q2 Source: CoStar, CASE Commercial
  • 6. Sales to List Spread Narrows to 2007-2008 Levels Source: CoStar, CASE Commercial -50.0% -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 2007-Q1 2007-Q2 2007-Q3 2007-Q4 2008-Q1 2008-Q2 2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2
  • 7. Median Days on Market Decreased in Q2/13 Source: CoStar, CASE Commercial - 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2005-Q1 2005-Q2 2005-Q3 2005-Q4 2006-Q1 2006-Q2 2006-Q3 2006-Q4 2007-Q1 2007-Q2 2007-Q3 2007-Q4 2008-Q1 2008-Q2 2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2
  • 8. What Does the Future Hold?
  • 9. 2.2 3.1 3.7 4.7 5.9 7.0 8.1 9.2 0.9 1.6 1.8 2.3 2.6 3.2 3.7 4.1 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 People Jobs Region will grow by 3.3 Million Source: HGAC Demographic Model In Millions
  • 10. Gen Y: Millions of 22YO By Year 3,400,000 3,500,000 3,600,000 3,700,000 3,800,000 3,900,000 4,000,000 4,100,000 4,200,000 Age 22 Age 25 Peak Rental Demand Peak Owner Demand Source: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
  • 11. Houston #2 Destination For Millennials Rank Metro Area Wage Change for Gen Y Median Pay for Gen Y Commute Time for Gen Y % Gen Y Gen Y Metro Score 1 Seattle 4.4% $ 44,000 24.3 0.22 1.61 2 Houston 4.3% $ 44,000 24.8 0.22 1.52 3 Minneapolis 3.3% $ 42,800 20.4 0.23 1.46 4 Washington, DC 3.2% $ 49,500 30 0.26 1.25 5 Boston 3.3% $ 46,200 29.9 0.25 1.16 6 Dallas 2.9% $ 41,200 20.6 0.21 1.11 7 New York 2.9% $ 46,900 30.6 0.26 1.04 8 Tampa 2.7% $ 36,600 20.7 0.19 0.83 9 - Tie Philadelphia 2.6% $ 42,000 28.7 0.23 0.81 9 - Tie San Francisco 2.2% $ 51,300 29.3 0.22 0.81 Source: Best Cities for Gen Y, www.payscale.com, 2012
  • 12. Where People Want to Live, by Generation 14% 15% 14% 18% 31% 39% 38% 38% 47% 42% 46% 47% 47% 34% 25% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 60+ (Silent + GI) 50-59 (Boomer) 40-49 (Boomer & Gen X) 30-39 (Gen X & Gen Y) 18-29 (Gen Y) City Suburban Small Town Source: 2011 National Community Preference Survey, NAR, March 2011
  • 13. Where Do They Actually Live? 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Core Municipalities Suburbs Outside Major Metropolitan Areas 2000% of Age 20-29 2010% of Age 20-29 Source: Wendell Cox, www.newgeography.com
  • 14. Gen Y Still Want Single Family Fall 2007 “Home Type Likely to Choose” Summer 2010 “Anticipated Housing in 2015” March 2011 “Home Type Preference” Apartment/Condo 12% 25% 15% Rowhouse/Townhouse 12% 6% 6% Single-Family 70% 64% 74% Other 5% 5% n/a Source: RCLCO Survey, 207, ULI/Lachman Survey 2010, NAR Consumer Preference Study 2011
  • 15. Gen X & Gen Y Favor Lifestyle Factors – Close to Work, Shopping 71% 55% 52% 42% 51% 62% 46% 43% 49% 47% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Small Lot, Walk to Work Small Lot, Walk to Shop Less than Ideal Home, Close to Shop Less than Ideal Home, Close to Work Urban Setting Gen Y Gen X 15 Source: Robert Charles Lesser Co.
  • 16. 16 Job Growth in Suburban Centers Market 2013 2020 Growth Inside Loop Bellaire 34,438 38,320 11.3% Greenway 63,143 68,148 7.9% CBD 148,117 153,970 4.0% TMC 107,344 116,272 8.3% Galleria 134,162 136,999 2.1% Inside Beltway Greenspoint 91,343 100,042 9.5% Brookhollow 25,526 26,271 2.9% Northwest Crossing 53,149 56,065 5.5% Sharpstown 39,327 40,360 2.6% Westchase 96,223 100,183 4.1% Outside Beltway Clear lake 48,897 50,628 3.5% Katy 18,707 21,591 15.4% The Woodlands 48,805 55,398 13.5% West Houston 102,795 108,760 5.8% Sugar Land 86,934 101,129 16.3% Total Market 2,959,033 3,275,509 10.7% Source: HGAC, 2035 Regional Transportation Plan
  • 17. Houston #1 in Self-Employment Growth Rank Region Growth in Self-employed, 2008-2011 1 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX 12.20% 2 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 11.80% 3 Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ 11.50% 4 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 10.00% 5 Baltimore-Towson, MD 8.60% 6 San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 8.10% 7 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 6.50% 8 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 6.30% 9 Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH 5.60% 10 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL 4.90%
  • 18. Land Growth Trends • Houston will grow dramatically over the next two decades • Gen Y will drive some inner-city interest but still has overwhelming suburban preference • Real preference by Gen X and Gen Y is for a shorter commute and close to shopping • Most job growth will be in the suburbs

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. Blue line is population. Currently we have about 6M. In 2040 we will have over 9M. We add over 100,000 residents each year.
  2. Nationally, Gen Y represents a “pig in the python” – number of 22 year olds nationally peaked last year so, that should represent the beginning of peak apartment demand, and we would would expect the peak to hit in about three years for single family demand as they start to hit age 25.
  3. Gen Y shows an inclination to prefer city living
  4. In fact, 2010 census data indicates that people between 20 and 29 years old were less inclined to live in more urban and walkable neighborhoods than their predecessors. In 2000, 19 percent of people aged 20 to 29 lived in the core municipalities of major metropolitan areas, where transit service and walkable neighborhoods are concentrated. Only 13 percent of the increase in 20 to 29-year-old population between 2000 and 2010 was in the core municipalities. By contrast, the share of the age 20 to 29 living  in the suburbs of major metropolitan areas was 45 percent, higher than the 36 percent living there in 2000
  5. Joel Kotkin - The entrepreneurial drive in Houston is clearly not a response to economic disaster – the city has a culture that encourages striking out on your own, and low costs and lighter regulation make it easier. Indeed over the past decade, the Texas powerhouse also led the nation in the growth of its 1099 economy, which expanded by a remarkable 51%.