"The 2012-2017 Worldwide Game-based Learning Market"
In this session, the audience will be provided with the five-year revenue forecasts for Game-based Learning broken out by seven international regions. Special attention will be given to North America and Asia. The session will identify the buyers, the products they buy, and the money they spend on those products.
1. Ambient Insight 2013
The 2012-2017 Worldwide Game-based
Learning and Simulation-based Markets
Key Findings from Recent Ambient Insight Research
Serious Play Conference 2013
August 19-22, 2013
Sam S. Adkins, Chief Research Officer
Ambient Insight
2. Ambient Insight 2013
Agenda
Introductions - Research Taxonomy
Worldwide Game-based Learning and
Simulation-based Learning Revenues
Worldwide Game-based Learning Revenues
Buying Patterns, and Trends
All Roads Lead to Mobile
3. Ambient Insight 2013
Partial List of Ambient Insight’s Clients
Adobe
Amazon
Amplify
Apple
BlackBerry
Blackboard
British Council
Chungdahm Learning
Dell
Deutsche Telekom
Disney
Hasbro
Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
IBM
John Wiley & Sons
McGraw-Hill
Macmillan
Microsoft
Oxford University Press
Pearson
Qualcomm
Rosetta Stone
Ambient Insight is an integrity-based market research firm that uses predictive analytics
to identify revenue opportunities for suppliers.
4. Ambient Insight 2013
Ambient Insight’s Learning Technology Research Taxonomy
Have Eight Buyer Segments
From Six Types of Suppliers
That Buy Eight Types of Digital Learning Products
Packaged
Content
Consumer PreK-12
Corporations
- Businesses
Higher
Education
Federal
Government
State - Local
Government
Associations
& Non-Profits
Healthcare
Custom
Content
Cloud-based
Tools & Platforms
Value Added
Services (VAS)
Installed Tools
& Platforms
Learning
Devices
Digital
Video, Text, &
Audio
Reference
Self-paced
eLearning
Courseware
Collaboration-
based
Learning
Simulation-
based
Learning
Cognitive
Learning
Mobile
Learning
Social
Learning
Game-based
Learning
These six supplier types map directly to the six
subcategories of learning technology products
Seven International Regions
North
America
Latin
America
Eastern
Europe
Western
Europe
Asia Africa
The Middle
East
5. Ambient Insight 2013
Game-based Learning is a Subset of the Learning
Technology Industry
Ambient Insight defines Game-based Learning as one of the
eight distinct types of learning technology products.
We do not approach Game-based Learning as a subset
of the global videogame industry.
In the context of the worldwide learning technology market,
isolating Game-based Learning products is relatively
straightforward
There is only one hardware-based learning technology product
type and that is Personal Learning Devices (PLDs)
Ambient Insight’s 2013 Learning Technology Research Taxonomy
6. Ambient Insight 2013
2012-2017 Global Market Forecasts for Game-based
Learning and Simulation-based Learning
Ambient Insight separates Game-based Learning revenues form
Simulation-based Learning revenues
There are distinct pedagogical differences between Game-based
Learning and Simulation-based Learning.
Our definitions of Simulation-based Learning and Game-based
Learning are based on the research done by Alessi and Trollip.
Global Revenues by
Learning Product
Type***
2012
Revenues
in $US Millions
2017
Revenues
in $US Millions
Five Year
CAGR
2012-2017
Game-based Learning $1,548.44 $2,309.60 8.3%
Simulation-based
Learning
$2,364.04 $6,648.89 23.0%
Total $3,912.48 $8,958.49 18.0%
*** Does not include hardware
7. Ambient Insight 2013
Pedagogical Definition of Game-based Learning
Game-based Learning is a knowledge transfer method that
utilizes "gameplay," which includes some form of competition
(against oneself or others) and a reward/penalty system that
essentially functions as an assessment method.
Game-based Learning products (edugames) have explicit
pedagogical goals.
A user "wins" an edugame when they achieve the learning
objectives of the gameplay.
There are distinct pedagogical differences between Game-based
Learning and Simulation-based Learning.
Ambient Insight’s 2013 Learning Technology Research Taxonomy
8. Ambient Insight 2013
There are distinct pedagogical differences between Game-based
Learning and Simulation-based Learning.
There are four types of Simulation-based Learning:
Physical Object and Environmental
Process
Procedural
Situational
Allessi and Trollip compressed these four into two instructional
strategies: learning about something (physical and process),
and learning to do something (procedural and situational).
Pedagogical Definition of Simulation-based Learning
Ambient Insight’s 2013 Learning Technology Research Taxonomy
9. Ambient Insight 2013
Gamification Versus Game-based Learning
Game-based Learning versus Gamification (via
SpongeLab):
Gamification is the application of videogame rules,
mechanics and conventions to a non-gaming
situation.
Put simply, if a student is playing a videogame and learning
from it, we aren‟t witnessing gamification - the student is
experiencing game-based learning. An educational game
hasn‟t been “gamified” - because it‟s a game already!
Game elements are often “bolted on” to legacy training
products
Badgeville sells gamification add-ons for corporate training
Course Hero has online courses with game mechanics from
the Bunchball platform
Oxford University Press uses SecretBuilder’s game platform
11. Ambient Insight 2013
2012-2017 Worldwide Simulation-based Learning Market
The global growth rate of the Worldwide Simulation-based
Learning market is 23.0%. Revenues reached $2.3 billion in 2012.
Revenues will grow to $6.6 billion by 2017.
*** Includes custom content services and tools revenue
Simulation-based
Learning by
Region***
2012
Revenues
in $US Millions
2017
Revenues
in $US Millions
Five Year
CAGR
2012-2017
North America $1,289.71 $2,729.99 16.2%
Latin America $116.07 $685.23 42.6%
Western Europe $451.40 $1,001.91 17.3%
Eastern Europe $55.46 $144.69 21.1%
Asia $374.02 $1,774.49 36.5%
The Middle East $12.90 $47.77 29.9%
Africa $64.49 $264.81 32.6%
Total $2,364.04 $6,648.89 23.0%
12. Ambient Insight 2013
2012-2017 Worldwide Simulation-based
Learning Five-year Growth Rates by Region
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
North
America
Latin
America
Western
Europe
Eastern
Europe
Asia Middle East Africa
2012-2017 Growth Rates by Region
14. Ambient Insight 2013
2012-2017 Worldwide Game-based Learning Market
The Worldwide Game-based Learning market reached
$1.5 billion in 2012. The global growth rate is 8.3% and
revenues will reach $2.3 billion by 2017.
*** Includes custom content development services revenue
Game-based
Learning by
Region***
2012
Revenues
in $US Millions
2017
Revenues
in $US Millions
Five Year
CAGR
2012-2017
North America $359.18 $582.00 10.1%
Latin America $26.94 $71.59 21.6%
Western Europe $96.98 $113.49 3.2%
Eastern Europe $13.65 $29.10 16.3%
Asia $1,029.43 $1,475.01 7.5%
The Middle East $4.31 $9.89 18.1%
Africa $17.96 $28.52 9.7%
Total $1,548.44 $2,309.60 8.3%
15. Ambient Insight 2013
2012-2017 Worldwide Game-based Learning
Five-year Growth Rates by Region
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
North
America
Latin
America
Western
Europe
Eastern
Europe
Asia Middle East Africa
2012-2017 Growth Rates by Region
16. Ambient Insight 2013
Game-based Learning Catalysts
• As of January 2013, Apple had app stores in 155
countries, up from 90 countries the year before
• December 2012 – Microsoft opens app stores in 37 more
countries – most of them in developing economies
• Paid Android apps now available in Google Play stores in
134 countries as of March 2013
• Amazon App stores operational in 7 countries as of March
2013– expanding to over 200 in 2013
• May 2013 - Amazon is the first Western company to
offer a platform for paid Android apps in China
• The telecom advantage: direct billing via telecoms is the
only viable payment method in many countries.
– Samsung, Nokia, Microsoft, BlackBerry, and Google have direct
billing agreements in Latin America, Africa, and Asia
17. Ambient Insight 2013
2012-2017 North America Edugame Forecast:
Robust Custom Content Services Growth
Revenues for packaged mobile edugames reached
$307.5 million in 2012. The growth rate (CAGR) is
8.4% and revenues will reach $459.9 million by 2017
The growth rate for custom edugame content
development services is 18.8% and revenues will
more than double to $122.0 million by 2017
North America
Edugame Content and
Services
2012
Revenues
in $US Millions
2017
Revenues
in $US Millions
Five Year
CAGR
2011-2016
Packaged Edugames $307.58 $459.95 8.4%
Custom Content
Development Services
$51.60 $122.05 18.8%
Total $359.18 $582.00 10.1%
19. Ambient Insight 2013
Buying Patterns: Game-based Learning
Buying Behavior is Different in Each Country
The top buying countries for mobile edugames in 2012
were the US, Japan, South Korea, China, and India,
respectively.
By 2017, the top buying countries will be China, the US,
India, Indonesia, and Brazil.
Early childhood learning are the top selling mobile
edugames in most countries in the world
Almost all of learning apps designed for young
children include gameplay
App-based Brain trainers have recently become popular in
the majority of countries across the planet
Leapfrogging the Digital Divide – All Roads Lead to Mobile
20. Ambient Insight 2013
Buying Patterns: 2012-2017 Worldwide Game-based
Learning Market by Buyer Segment
Consumers dominate the global Game-based Learning market
Global Game-based
Learning by Buying
Segment
2012
Revenues
in $US Millions
2017
Revenues
in $US Millions
Five Year
CAGR
2012-2017
Consumer $1,145.85 $1,524.33 5.9%
PreK-12 $170.33 $323.34 13.7%
Higher Education $15.48 $46.19 24.4%
Government $77.42 $138.58 12.3%
Corporate $46.45 $92.38 14.7%
Healthcare $61.94 $115.48 13.3%
NGOs & Non-Profits $30.97 $69.29 17.5%
Total $1,548.44 $2,309.60 8.3%
Revenues
concentrated in
edugame
content
Revenues
concentrated in
custom
services
21. Ambient Insight 2013
Buying Behavior is Different in Each Buyer Segment
Gaming consoles still banned in China
Consumers gravitate to edugames for young children and
brain training games for adults.
Massive adoption of tablets in the schools across the planet
is a major catalyst for Mobile Learning
In the US, Game-based Learning is ubiquitous in the early
grades but starts to taper out in middle school
Pearson shutters Alleyoop in March 2013 after one year
of operation
MineCraftEdu has sold over 700 licenses in the last year
Glass Lab will launch SimCityEdu in late 2013
Amplify to bring 35 edugames across the PreK-12
curriculum in late 2013
22. Ambient Insight 2013
Longitudinal Analysis: The Global Game-based
Learning Market Enters Mature Phase
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Compound Annual Growth Rates by Seven Forecast Periods
Data based on Ambient Insight’s Game-based Learning
reports from 2006 to 2013.
23. Ambient Insight 2013
Buying Behavior is Different in Each Buyer Segment
The use of edugames in the corporate segment has
always been problematic
“We are here to work, not play”
There are seven other learning technologies used in
the corporate segment that essentially “compete” with
Game-based Learning
There is a lingering perception that simulation and
Game-based Learning are very expensive in comparison
to eLearning courses
Classroom is still the dominant delivery method in the
global corporate segment
24. Ambient Insight 2013
“The 2012 Content Trench” – Percent of Total Paid Mobile
Learning Apps by Target Demographic
31%
9%
3%
6%
5%
8%
12%
26%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
What’s on the Store Shelves?
Consumer-facing Paid Mobile Learning Content
Across All Major Application Stores, Platforms, and Devices
The vast majority
of PreK-2 Mobile
Learning content is
game-based
25. Ambient Insight 2013
Buying Behavior is Different in Each Buyer Segment
Federal agencies, particularly the military, are avid users
of edugames
Government agencies are increasingly paying developers
to create edugames ( web-based and mobile) for
mHealth, literacy, and language learning initiatives
The US State Dept.’s Trace Word Soup game on the
biNu platform launched in October 2012 and had over
1.4 million users in two months
Healthcare edugames are usually designed for patient
education, disease prevention, and behavior modification
NGOs and Non-profits fund the development of mobile
edugames relating to disease prevention, social
engineering, and the environment
26. Ambient Insight 2013
All Roads Lead to Mobile
“Mobile is an absolutely critical, if not „the'
growth driver for the industry for the next
several years.”
Frank Gibeau, President of Electronic Arts Labels
June 2013
27. Ambient Insight 2013
Booming
Global
Mobile
Learning
Market
Explosion of
Mobile
Learning VAS
Consumer
Demand for
Mobile
Learning
Large-scale
Tablet
Adoption in
Academia
Rapid Uptake
of Location-
based
Learning
New Mobile
Learning
Tools and
Platforms
New Personal
Learning
Devices
Integration of
Educational
Content in
mHealth
The Convergent Catalysts in the Booming 2012
Worldwide Mobile Learning Market
Telecoms’ new direct billing agreements with Nokia, Google, Microsoft,
Samsung, and Blackberry are now major catalysts in developing economies
28. Ambient Insight 2013
Six Types of Mobile Edugames in Ambient
Insight’s Research Taxonomy
Ambient Insight forecasts revenues for six types of
Mobile Edugames:
Knowledge-based games
Skills-based games
Brain training and cognitive fitness games
Language learning games
Location-based learning edugames
Mobile augmented reality edugames
Mobile edugames have higher price points than non-
educational games
Consumers and schools are willing to pay more for
pedagogically-sound early childhood learning games
Ambient Insight’s 2013 Learning Technology Research Taxonomy
29. Ambient Insight 2013
2012-2017 North America Edugame Forecast: All
Roads Lead to Mobile
Revenues for mobile edugames reached $190.5 million
in 2012. The growth rate (CAGR) is 15.3% and
revenues will more than double to $388.2 million by
2017
In contrast, revenues for PC/Web/Console edugames
are in relatively steep decline
North America
Edugame Delivery
Platform*
2012
Revenues
in $US Millions
2017
Revenues
in $US Millions
Five Year
CAGR
2011-2016
Mobile Edugames $190.56 $388.02 15.3%
Non-mobile Edugames $117.02 $71.93 -9.3%
Total $307.58 $459.95 8.4%
*Does not include custom content development services revenue
30. Ambient Insight 2013
What Sells?
Track the Top Selling Mobile Edugames by Country
Free ranking sites track the top selling educational
apps and games by country for:
Amazon Appstore, Apple App Store, BlackBerry
World, Google Play Store, Nokia Ovi Store, Samsung
Apps, Windows Phone Store, and Windows Store
There are often differences in app purchasing in different
stores in the same country
App Annie:
http://www.appannie.com/top/iphone/united-states/education/
Distimo:
http://www.distimo.com/leaderboards
31. Ambient Insight 2013
Leading Indicators: Game-based Learning
Private Investment Patterns
Game-based Learning companies garnered
$149.4 million in private funding in 2012
Of the 33 Game-based Learning companies
funded in 2012, 23 were mobile edugame
companies
Breakout by Target Customer
23 were consumer facing, with 20 of them targeting
early childhood learning
5 were PreK-12 – all of them targeting the early grades
3 were healthcare-facing edugame companies
And only one investment each made to higher education
and corporate edugame companies
32. Ambient Insight 2013
0
5
10
15
20
Consumer PreK-12 Higher Education Healthcare Corporate
Number of Companies Funded by Target Customer Type
Leading Indicators: Game-based Learning
Private Investment Patterns
33. Ambient Insight 2013
Q & A
This deck is posted in Ambient Insight’s Free Resource Library
at:
http://www.ambientinsight.com/News/PublishedContent.aspx
Sam@ambientinsight.com
Notes de l'éditeur
Ambient Insight founded in 2004 by Microsoft Training and Certification veterans that built the Microsoft Online Institute (MOLI)International “boutique” analysis firm specializing in quantitative analysis, learning technology forecasts, M&A analysis, and competitive intelligence Ambient Insight tracks learning technology buying behavior across the planet. We have buying behavior profiles for over 100 countriesAmbient Insight…Does not evaluate, compare, or rank the effectiveness of learning technology products Does not endorse or promote companies or productsWe are the only analyst firm that whose focus is entirely on Learning Technologies – produce syndicated and custom reports.We don’t compare or rank, award or reward, endorse or promote – any company or product. WHO ARE YOU?- DEVELOPER? EDUCATORS, PUBLISHERS, OUTSIDE USWho came the furtherest?
Trying to analyze Game-based Learning as a subset of the vast videogame industry is a daunting task (“impossible” some videogame industry analysts have said)Game-based Learning revenues amount to a 2-3% rounding error in the huge global videogame industry
Services are for both mobile and non-mobile so no way to break that out.
Virtual worlds that embed edugames illustrate the difference between Simulation-based Learning and Game-based Learning. The "environment" is indeed simulated but the knowledge transfer method is game-based. In Simulation-based Learning, the simulation itself is the knowledge transfer method.
Ambient Insight does not include high-end military, aviation, and heavy equipment simulator revenues in our forecasts. The barriers to entry are quite high to develop and market these machines and only a handful of suppliers can compete in the simulator market.
Virtual worlds that embed edugames illustrate the difference between Simulation-based Learning and Game-based Learning. The "environment" is indeed simulated but the knowledge transfer method is game-based. In Simulation-based Learning, the simulation itself is the knowledge transfer method.
Revenues concentrated in the US and Western Europe in the corporate and healthcare segments.
Revenues concentrated in Asia and consumers
Services are for both mobile and non-mobile so no way to break that out.
Revenues concentrated in Asia and consumers
Language learning dominates the adult segment.
Worldwide – these are the catalysts – different for every region – e.g. in Asia, it’s Booming market for VAS, tablets in academic segment & personal learning devices in consumer segment– but, 2 ones specific to Asia and some other regions: leapfrogging the PC experience—smart mobile broadband networks, and device makers & telecoms driving the market – revenue & innovations. VAS Consumer demand (English language learning) tablet & PLD adoption Location-based Learning integration with mHealth (also a consumer need)Direct billing is now a major catalyst –relatively newTelefónica operates in twelve of the fifteen countries analyzed in this report and has over 212 million subscribers in the region. In 2012, Telefónica announced direct billing agreements with Microsoft, Facebook, and RIM (now rebranded as BlackBerry.) In May 2013, they announced a global direct billing agreement with Samsung. "Under the terms of the global framework agreement, Samsung Hub and Samsung Apps’ customers will be able to purchase apps and music, video, books, games and learning services from their devices by simply charging the payment to their phone bill." Telefónica's deal with Samsung allows subscribers to make purchases in Samsung's dedicatedLearning Hub store and be billed directly by Telefónica. Samsung's Learning Hub store launched in February 2012 with "6,000 free and paid learning units in collaboration with some 30 domestic and foreign education services companies." Samsung is targeting both schools and consumers.
Services are for both mobile and non-mobile so no way to break that out.
There are differences in app purchasing in each store: In the US, language learning apps dominate the Windows app store. History eBooks are the top sellers in Samsung’s app store. In Apple’s app store, early childhood learning apps and astronomy apps are the top sellers. In Amazon’s store, all ten of the top selling apps are early childhood learning apps.
Examples of early childhood learning game companies funded in 2012 include MindSnacks, Fuhu, GetBonkers, MeeGenius, Fingerprint Digital, Duck Duck Moose, Mindshapes, etc.SCVNGR obtained $27 million, but they are moving away from higher education to consumers and mobile money productsAxonify is corporate-facing and integrates gamification into a training platform – they got $500K in funding