The tremendous transformation of the social, economical and environmental scenario in the Kashmir during the last five decades has exponentially increased the Bear-man conflict in the region.

1. Man>Bear'Conflict'and'the'
Changing'Landscape'in'Kashmir:'
''''''''''''''''''A'FEW'THOUGHTS'
SHAKIL'A'ROMSHOO'
Professor'and'Head,'
Dept.'of'Earth'Sciences,'KU'

2. PRESENTATION'OUTLINE'
! MEDIA'POLITICS'
! GROUND'FACTS'
! A'FEW'THOUGHTS'
! LAND'SYSTEM'CHANGES'
! CC'AND'WATER'RESOURCES'
! HABITAT'INFRINGEMENT''
! WATERSHED'SCALE'
! TAKE'HOME'MESSAGE'

3. POLITICS'

4. THE'OTHER'SIDE'……'
Year' Total'Conflicts' • INCREASING BEAR ATTACKS
1995' 1' ACROSS THE VALLEY
1996' 1'
1997' 2' • ILL EQUIPPED GOVT. MACHINERY
1998' 1'
1999' 1'
2000' 5'
2001' 8'
2002' 7'
2003' 7'
2004' 19'
2005' 48'
2006' 51'
2007' 80'
2008' 130'
2009' 186'

5. THE OTHER SIDE …..
Bear'AWack'Cases'operated'at'SKIIMS,'Srinagar''
• POOR UNDERSTANDING OF THE PROBLEM & NO
ACTION PLAN
• Lack of concrete and holistic measures on the
ground
• Lack of awareness among the people
• Thus, BEAR-PHOBIA, Frustration and PANIC
REACTIONS

6. A'FEW'THOUGHTS………'
" Tremendous'transformaZon'of'the'socioeconomic'
and' environmental' scenario' in' the' valley' during'
the'last'five'decades'
" Changing'land'system:'parZcularly'the'large'scale'
conversion'of'land'to'horZculture''
" Changing' Climate:' Scanty' and' eraZc' snowfall' in'
the'region'
" Changes' in' stream>flows,' drainage' and' depleZon'
of'water'bodies/wetlands'
" UrbanizaZon'along'the'foothills'and'forest'areas'
" DeforestaZon…..?'
" Bear'populaZon??'

7. CONFLICT ZONE

9. HISTORICALLY'NO'BEAR'ZONE'
BEAR>MAN'CONFLICT'ZONE'
SINCE'LAST'10'YERS'NOW'
HISTORICAL'Bear'Habitat'

10. Conflict (Death + Injuries) Statistics,
Data Source-J & K Wildlife Department
!
' 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Total
Anantnag 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 6 3 1 7 27 44 63 154
Bandipora 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 7 1 2 4 1 6 28
Baramulla 0 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 7 4 4 22 29 72
Budgam 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 3
Ganderbal 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 7 5 1 0 20 35
Kulgam 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 2 3 9 2 5 7 31
Kupwara 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 3 16 7 10 43
Pulwama 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 1 3 18 8 15 42 31 123
Srinagar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 4 5 5 1 9 25
Anantnag > Pulwama > Baramulla > Kupwara >
Ganderbal > Kulgam > Srinagar > Budgam

11. 9'Districts' 76'Villages'

12. Land'System'Changes'SINCE'1972'
CLASS NAME! 1972 AREA (HA)! 1992 AREA (HA)! 2008AREA (HA)!
FOREST! 485473.31! 464798.36! 391368.55!
AGRICULTURE! 337788.45! 301094.00! 269138.93
PLANTATION! 92240.15! 89443.34! 85876.76
HORTICULTURE ! 17954.44! 28858.26! 71899.18!
WATER! 12795.11! 11024.42! 6827.09!
RIVER BED! 9899.81! 9812.22! 7512.82!
AQUA_VEGETATION! 3981.44! 7503.56! 11729.20!
BUILT-UP! 578.07! 5914.96! 21432.81!

14. Drying'up'of'the'Water'Holes'

15. DECLINE'
STREAMFLOW''
Discharge (Cusecs) Discharge (Cusecs) Discharge (Cusecs) Discharge (Cusecs)
Discharge (Cusecs)
20!
220!
420!
100!
600!
1100!
1600!
0!
20!
40!
60!
80!
0!
100!
200!
300!
0!
200!
400!
600!
1971! 1971! 1971! 1971! 1971!
1974! 1974! 1974! 1974!
1974!
1977! 1977!
1977! 1977!
1977! 1980!
1980! 1980! 1980!
1980! 1983!
1983! 1983! 1983!
1986!
&&&&&&&&&
&&&&&&&&&&
1986! 1983! 1986! 1986!
&&&&&&&&&&
Years&
&&&&&&&&&
Years&
1989!
Years&
1989! 1989! 1989!
1986! 1992!
1992! 1992! 1992!
1989! 1995!
1995! 1995! 1995!
1998!
1998! 1992! 1998! 1998!
yearly&discharge-Dakhil&
yearly&discharge-Odour&
Yearly&Discharge-Pohru&
Yearly Discharge-Dachigam
2001!
2001! 1995! 2001! 2001!
2004!
2004! 2004! 2004!
1998! 2007!
2007! 2007! 2007!
2010!
2010! 2010! 2010!
yearly&discharge-Sandran&
!!
!!
!!
!!
!!
Discharge (Cusecs) Discharge (Cusecs) Discharge (Cusecs) Discharge (Cusecs) Discharge (Cusecs)
Years
0!
1000!
2000!
3000!
0!
50!
100!
50!
250!
450!
20!
220!
420!
620!
200!
700!
1200!
1700!
1971! 197 1971! 1971!
1974! 197
1974! 1975! 1975!
1977! 197
1977!
1980! 1979! 1979!
1980! 198
1983! 1983! 198 1983! 1983!
1986! 1986! 198 1987!
Years&
1987!
&&&&&&&&&
&&&&&&&&&&
&&&&&&&&&
Years&
Years&
&&&&&&&&&&&&&
&
Years&
&&&&&&&&&&&&
198
Years&
1989! 1989! 1991!
199
1991!
1992! 1992!
199 1995! 1995!
1995! 1995!
yearly&discharge-Vij&
199 1999! 1999!
1998!
Yearly&discharge-Vishu&
1998!
yearly&discharge-Bringi&
200
2001! 2001! 2003! 2003!
yearly&discharge-Batakot&
200
2004! 2004! 2007!
200 2007!
2007!
yearly&discharge-Sukhnag&
2007! 201
2010!
!

16. 0!
50!
100!
150!
200!
250!
300!
350!
400!
450!
0!
500!
1000!
1500!
2000!
2500!
3000!
0!
1000!
2000!
3000!
4000!
5000!
6000!
1971! 1971!
1971!
1975! 1975! 1975!
1979! 1979! 1979!
1983! 1983! 1983!
1987! 1987! 1987!
J
S
1991! 1991! 1991!
1995! 1995! 1995!
1999! 1999! 1999!
2003! 2003! 2003!
2007! 2007! 2007!
0!
500!
1000!
1500!
2000!
2500!
0!
1000!
2000!
3000!
4000!
5000!
6000!
0!
100!
200!
300!
400!
500!
600!
700!
800!
1971! 1971!
1971!
1975! 1975!
1975!
1979! 1979!
1979!
1983! 1983!
1983!
1987! 1987!
1987!
1991! 1991!
F
1991!
1995! 1995!
1999! 1999! 1995!
2003! 2003! 1999!
2007! 2007! 2003!
2007!
0!
100!
200!
300!
400!
500!
600!
700!
800!
900!
0!
1000!
2000!
3000!
4000!
5000!
6000!
7000!
8000!
1971!
0!
200!
400!
600!
800!
1000!
1200!
1400!
1600!
1971!
1975! 1971!
1975!
1979! 1975!
1979!
1983! 1979!
1983!
1987! 1983!
1987!
1987!
1991! 1991!
1991!
M
1995! 1995! 1995!
1999! 1999! 1999!
2003! 2003! 2003!
2007! 2007! 2007!
0!
100!
200!
300!
400!
500!
600!
0!
1000!
2000!
3000!
4000!
5000!
6000!
0!
500!
1000!
1500!
2000!
2500!
3000!
3500!
1971!
1971! 1971!
1975! 1975! 1975!
1979! 1979! 1979!
1983! 1983! 1983!
1987! 1987! 1987!
1991! 1991! 1991!
1995! 1995! 1995!
1999! 1999! 1999!
2003! 2003! 2003!
2007! 2007! 2007!

17. Demographic'Changes'
• The!state!of!has!also!shown!popula=on!growth!from!2.14!
million!in!1901!to!12.5!million!2011.!!
• A!growth!rate!of!about!23%!compared!to!the!popula=on!
figures!of!10.1!million!in!2001.!!
!
!
Popula=on!changes!from!1981J2001!

18. Habitat'Conflict:'Bear'&'Man'can’t'Co>
exist''

19. Forest'resource'Assessment'

20. Forest'FragmentaZon!'
Does'it'maWer'here?'

21. Habitat'Infringement''

22. Understanding''the'conflict:'WATERSHED'SCALE'

23. WATERSHED>WISE'
Conflict Zone 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Tot
Arin-Madhumati 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 5
Rembaira & Romshi 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 1 1 1 7
Sukhnag &
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 3 3 11
Doodganga
Bringi 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 6 8 17
Vijay-Dhakil 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 2 8 9 23
Dal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 4 5 4 1 9 24
Sandran & Vishav 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 1 2 6 9 25
Ferzpr-Ningl-Gundr-
1 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 3 1 10 10 30
lowJhe
Wular1-Pohru 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 3 15 8 10 45
Sindh 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 7 8 6 4 1 24 56
Kuthar 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 2 16 12 16 20 70
Lidder 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 5 3 2 5 16 27 43 103
Arapal 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 1 1 17 9 17 41 40 131

24. WATERSHED>WISE'
HorZcult' Forest' urban' Agric'
Anchar' + - + -
Arapal' + - + +
Bringi' + - + -
Dal' + - + -
Doodhganga' + - + -
Garzan' + - + -
Sukhnag' + - + -
Kuthar' + - + +
Lidder' + - + +
Sandran' + - + -
Sind' + - + -
Rembiara' + - + -
Romshi' + - + -
Vishav' + - + -
Arin' + - + -
Ferozpur' + - + -
Gundar' + - + +
Lower'Jhelum' + - + +
MadumaZ' + - + +
Ningal' + - + +
Pohru' + - + +
Vijay'Dhakil' + - + +
Wular'I' + - + -
Wular'II' + - + -

25. WATERSHED-WISE
ARAPAL
Arapal&
Class&& Area'(hec)>72' Area(hec)>08' Change''
Forest' 24366' 17518' >6848'
HorZculture' 858' 1362' +504'
Agriculture' 15064' 17192' +2128'
Built_up' 85' 876' +791'
41' 40'
17' 17'
9'
2' 3'
1' 1'
2001' 2002' 2003' 2004' 2005' 2006' 2007' 2008' 2009'

26. WATERSHED-WISE
LIDDER
Lidder&
Class&& Area'(hec)>72' Area(hec)>08' Change'in'area'
Forest' 58275' 38467' >19808'
HorZculture' 884' 2957' +2073'
Agriculture' 18544' 17623' >921'
Built_up' 65' 213' +148.39435'
43!
27!
16!
5! 5!
3! 2!
1! 0! 1!
2000' 2001' 2002' 2003' 2004' 2005' 2006' 2007' 2008' 2009'

27. SEASONALITY IN ATTACKS
(ARAPAL WATERSHED)

28. Conflict Zone Map

29. TAKE'HOME'MESSAGE'
! NEED'FOR'INTROSPECTION'AS'THE'PROBLEM'IS'
OUTCOME'OF'OUR'FAULTY'&'MYOPIC'STRATEGIES'
AT'BOTH'GOVT.'AND'PERSONAL'LEVEL'
! 'NEED'FOR'AN'INDEPTH'SCIENTIFIC'ANALYSIS'TO'
LOOK'AT'THE'ROOT'CAUSES'
! NEED'FOR'AN'ACTION'PLAN'SO'THAT'CONCRETE'
STEPS'ARE'TAKEN'TO'ARREST'THE'CONFLICT'
! ADHOCISM'AND'KNEE'JERK'REACTIONS'SHOULD'GIVE'
WAY'TO'WELL>THOUGHT>OUT>'ACTION'PLAN''
! 'INVOLVEMENT'AND'AWARENESS'OF'THE'
COMMUNTIES'

30. TAKE'HOME'MESSAGE'
IT' IS' THE' COLLECTIVE' FAILURE' OF' THE'
GOVERNMENT' MACHINERY' THAT' HAS'
FAILED' TO' UNDERSTAND' THE' CAUSAL'
FACTORS'AND'HAVE'NOT'COME'UP'WITH'
A' ROBUST' ACTION' PLAN' TO' TACKLE' THE'
PROBLEM.''
SO' WHY' THIS' MISDIRECTION'
OF'MEDIA/CENTRE'TIRADE?'