Harnessing Long Term Signals for Greater Climate Action
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The document discusses including a long-term goal (LTG) of achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions in the second half of this century in the 2015 Paris Agreement. It provides background on the science supporting this goal to limit warming to 2°C, and outlines widespread support for the LTG from countries, cities, businesses, and civil society. Specific proposals are made for including recognition of the LTG in the agreement through references in the preamble, a ratchet mechanism to increase ambition over time, and a program of action to support initiatives working towards net zero emissions. Overall the document argues that establishing a clear long-term direction of net zero emissions is important to guide national climate policies and investments over the coming decades to transition away from
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Harnessing Long Term Signals for Greater Climate Action
- 1. Harnessing long term signals for greater mitigation action on climate change: The 2015 Agreement & the long-term goal Farhana Yamin, Founder & CEO, Track 0 OECD, Climate Change Expert Group(CCXG) Global Forum 17–18 March 2015
- 2. What is the Long-term Goal (LTG)? The science of 20 C and zero emissions Who supports the LTG in the “real economy” • Business • Cities • Civil Society Who supports the LTG in Paris negotiating Textual proposals on the table OVERVIEW
- 3. “I am making a strong call for governments to put us on a pathway to achieve zero net emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels in the second half of this century. Unlike the financial crisis, we do not have a ‘climate bailout’ option up our sleeve.” Angel Gurria, SG OECD October 2013
- 4. Long term goal science: 20C = 0 emissions • IPCC AR5: only one scenario, RCP 2.6, offers a 66% (likely) chance of staying within 2ºC: • All GHGs are 40 - 70% reductions lower by 2050 (using 2010 baseline) • All GHG emissions are zero by 2100 • C02 emissions are net zero by 2075 and net negative thereafter • Climate Action Tracker/Ecofys find an 85% (high) chance of staying below 2ºC if: • All GHGs need to be net zero by 2060-2080 • C02 emissions are net zero earlier between 2045-2065 • Net negative CO2 emissions after 2065 • Conclusion: we need profound changes to shift emissions from fossil fuels and industry, starting today! Source: New Climate Institute briefing ‘Net Phase out of global GHG emissions’, 11th Feb 2015
- 5. Timeframe for achieving the LTG Source: WRI & ACT 2015, December 2014 Working Paper
- 6. Why do we need a LTG in Paris Agreement? • A unifying international goal to crystallise and guide regional and national action • Create a backbone of scientific integrity for Paris given a bottom up process of NDCs (expected to be 5-10years) might fall short of science if each country left to come up with their own targets • We need a more practical goal than 2ºC – one that anyone can understand AND apply at any level (country, city, community, business, sectoral) so create a common direction of travel by all: zero emissions is that goal
- 7. WHY DOES A LONG TERM DIRECTION OF TRAVEL MATTER?
- 8. 82% of coal deposits, half of all known gas reserves and a third of the world’s oil would need to stay underground; including 80% of potential shale gas reserves in U.S., Africa and the Middle East (2014 UCL Study) Carbon Tracker estimates that annual capital expenditures amounting to nearly $700 billion flow to projects that could end up abandoned. Goldman Sachs estimate almost $1 trillion in investments in future oil projects are at risk. The Bank of England is analysing the risk of stranded assets. Its key message so far is that banks must take a central role in predicting potential stranded assets as they face a direct economic threat in the key transitional phase of the next 15 years. “...climate risk is becoming synonymous with reputation risk,” Luisa Florez, senior responsible investment analyst at Axa Investment, managing over €600bn in assets. Stranded AssetsAvoiding Stranded Assets
- 9. Business
- 10. 159 signatories Net zero by 2100 Signatories include: Adidas, HP, Heathrow, Shell & Unilever
- 11. Cities • 228 cities globally, representing 436 million people, have set GHG reduction goals and targets. The cumulative savings of these targets, by 2050, equals the current annual emissions of China and India combined. – The following cities committed to GHG reductions of between 80- 100% by 2050: Yokohama, Washington DC, Vasteras, Vancouver, Stockholm, Seattle, San Francisco, Portland, Oslo, NYC, London, Boulder, Boston, Berlin and Antwerp • The Carbon Neutral Cities Alliance connects up cities working for “aggressive long term carbon reduction goals”; including Berlin, Boston, Copenhagen, London, Melbourne, New York, Oslo, San Francisco, Seattle, Stockholm, Vancouver, Washington DC, Yokohama (Japan). • C40 network & The Compact of Mayors are also working to commit over 75 megacities to GHG emission reduction targets.
- 12. Civil Society • Divestment Movement: Rockefeller Brothers Fund, Norwegian Oil Wealth Fund, Universities, faith groups, foundations and associations. • Modelling and net zero scenarios already happening all over the world • Climate Action Network (>900 NGO members) endorse 2050 goal to “phase in Renewable Energy, phase out Fossil Fuels”. • The Elders support Net Zero by 2050. • Community initiatives such as ‘Towards Zero Carbon Bute’ and ‘Carbon Neutral Flensburg’ are working on a local level to decarbonise too.
- 13. WHO SUPPORTS THE LONG TERM GOAL FOR NET ZERO IN PARIS PROCESS?
- 14. What is the total number of countries supporting the LTG? Representatives of nearly 120 countries have expressed support for inclusion of the LTG in the Paris agreement including: • Nauru, on behalf of 44 members of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) at ADP meetings in Lima, COP 20 • Nepal, on behalf of 48 Least Developed Countries at COP 20, Lima • The EU on behalf of 27 countries at the UNFCCC ADP in Geneva • Norway, Switzerland, Mexico, South Africa, Chile, Costa Rica and Colombia have expressed support for LTG in the ADP and/or through their Heads of States at UN Secretary General’s Climate Summit, Sept 2014 “Today we have an obligation to succeed. The 2015 Paris conference must enable us to achieve a global agreement, an ambitious agreement that can ensure we reach what’s called carbon neutrality – that is, greenhouse gas emissions compatible with the planet’s absorption capabilities.” President Hollande addressing the UN Climate Summit, September 2015
- 15. Individual Countries who have supported inclusion of the LTG in the Paris 2015 Treaty Country Group 1 Barbados AOSIS 2. Belgium EU 3. Bhutan LDCs 4. Chile AILAC 5. Colombia AILAC 6. Costa Rica AILAC 7. Denmark EU 8. Ethiopia LDCs/Africa 9 Finland EU 10. France EU 11. Gambia LDC/Africa 12. Georgia CACAM 13. Germany EU 14. Grenada AOSIS 15. Iceland Umbrella 16. Ireland EU Country Group 17 Malawi LDCs/Africa 19. Marshall Islands AOSIS 20 Mexico Environmental Integrity Group 21. Monaco Environmental Integrity Group 22. Nauru AOSIS 23. Nepal LDC/Africa 24. Netherlands EU 25. New Zealand Umbrella 26. Norway Umbrella 27. Samoa AOSIS 28. South Africa Africa 29. Sweden EU 30. Switzerland Environmental Integrity Group 31. Trinidad & Tobago AOSIS 32. Uganda LDCs/Africa 33. United Kingdom EU
- 16. Widespread Support From Negotiating Groups AOSIS (44) AFRICAN GROUP (52) Cook Islands Nauru * Niue Palau Fiji Guyana Papua New Guinea * Suriname Bahamas Barbados * Grenada * Jamaica Marshall Islands * Singapore Saint Kits Saint Lucia Tonga Belize Dominica Maldives (Chair) Cuba Cote d’Ivoire Egypt Morocco Namibia South Africa * Swaziland Tunisia Zimbabwe Cameroon Congo Ghana Kenya Nigeria Algeria Libya Bangladesh Afghanistan Bhutan * Cambodia Lao P.D.R. Myanmar Nepal * Yemen Kiribati Tuvalu Solomon Islands Haiti Timor-Leste Vanuatu Guinea-Bissau Comoros Sao Tome & Principe Cape Verde Mauritius Seychelles Togo Burkina Faso Mauritania Mozambique Equatorial Guinea Rwanda Senegal Somalia Sudan South Sudan Tanzania Malawi * Zambia Central African Republic D.R. Congo Niger Lesotho Liberia Madagascar Sierra Leone Uganda * Angola (Chair) Benin Mali Burundi Chad Djibouti Eritrea Ethiopia* Gambia Guinea Trinidad and Tobago * Antigua and Barbuda Saint Vincent & the Grenadines Federated States of Micronesia Samoa * Observers U.S. Virgin Islands Netherlands Antilles American Samoa Guam Puerto Rico LDCs (48) Dominican Republic ✚ Colombia * Costa Rica * Chile * Peru Guatemala Panama AILAC (6) KEY * Countries who have supported inclusion of a long term goal •AOSIS + LDCs = 83 countries, are both + Not a full member of AILAC, associates with positions
- 17. Widespread Support From Negotiating Groups Umbrella (9) Australia Canada Iceland * Japan New Zealand * Norway * Russia Ukraine United States EU Countries (27) Austria Belgium * Bulgaria Czech Republic Cyprus Denmark * Estonia Poland France * Germany * Greece Hungary Ireland * Italy Latvia Netherlands * Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden * United Kingdom * Environmental Integrity Group (5) Mexico * Switzerland * Lichtenstein South Korea Monaco * CACAM (7) Albania Armenia Georgia * Kazakhstan Republic of Moldova Turkmenistan Uzbekistan *Countries supportive of inclusion of a long term goal in Paris Finland * Lithuania Luxemburg Malta Estonia
- 18. Least Developed Countries (LDC) Group “Mr. President…. the LDCs are still optimistic on achieving a climate neutral future before the end of the Century. Our Group understands that, in our journey of combating the climate crisis and reaching a climate neutral world, we must make the right choices here in Lima and next year in Paris. We have a historical opportunity to make things right through the new Paris Protocol.” Statement delivered by Dr. Govinder Raj Pokhrel, Vice Chair, National Planning Commission, Nepal on behalf of 48 countries of LDC Group Opening of the High Level Segment COP-20/CMP-10Lima, Peru, 9 December 2014 “Total emissions need to reach zero between 2060 and 2080. This means we need urgent actions by all countries to reduce emissions.” Statement made by Uganda on behalf of LDCs, ADP Ministerial, June 2014
- 19. Alliance Of Small Island States (AOSIS) “We find it very important and worthwhile that paragraph 13 (a) refers to the need for long-term decarbonisation pathways. These are critical for getting on track towards our agreed long term goal. More specifically…We are very keen and happy to see the reference to net zero emissions and/or full decarbonisation by 2050, which the latest science is telling us is necessary to achieve our long-term goal.” Statement delivered by Nauru, on behalf of the 44 members of the Alliance of Small Island States, at the Lima ADP negotiations, 3 November 2014
- 20. Countries with renewable targets 1. Ambitious targets or shares of renewables > / = 50% at any time Guatemala Guyana Honduras Iceland Israel Italy Kenya Latvia Madagascar Malawi Mozambique Nauru New Zealand Nicaragua Niue Norway Peru Austria Cameroon Cape Verde Colombia Cook Islands Costa Rica Democratic Republic of the Congo Denmark Djibouti Dominica El Salvador Eritrea Estonia Fiji Finland Gabon Germany Portugal Rwanda Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Solomon Islands Somalia South Sudan Spain Sudan Sweden Switzerland Tanzania Tonga Tuvalu Uganda Uruguay Vanuatu Zambia
- 21. Palau Panama Philippines Poland Republic of the Congo Romania Saint Lucia Samoa Senegal Serbia Slovakia Slovenia South Korea Suriname Thailand Togo Turkey Ukraine United Kingdom Venezuela Vietnam Albania Algeria Argentina Azerbaijan Belgium Bosnia and Herzegovina Botswana Brazil Bulgaria Burundi Chile China Côte d'Ivoire Croatia Cyprus Czech Republic Ecuador Egypt France Greece Grenada Hungary India Indonesia Ireland Jamaica Jordan Laos Lebanon Libya Lithuania Luxembourg Macedonia Mali Malta Mauritania Mauritius Moldova Mongolia Montenegro Netherlands Niger Countries with renewables targets 2. Any other renewables target
- 22. Governments 6 Carbon Neutral Countries 196 countries supporting 2ºC implying phase out by 2100 152 countries supporting 1.5ºC Implying 2050 phase out 93 Countries with ambitious renewable targets support phase in 44 Countries with Individual LTG 50 Annex 1 Parties collective offer 50% by 2050 AIP doing 80% Source: Track 0
- 23. The Role of Paris
- 24. ADP workstream 1 (post 2020) • Possible outcomes for Paris for LTG – Preamble reference e.g. “Parties agree the need to phase out GHGs to achieve carbon neutrality by mid-century as demanded by science” – LBA body – LTG in effect giving operative guidance on re Article 2 UNFCCC and what timetable for phase out in needed as IPCC AR5 as subsequently updated – LBA annex incentivises and allows listing of both long & short term commitments combinations put forward by countries . Net Zero does not REPLACE INDCs and short term ambition – LBA body – ratchet mechanism setting out automatic adjustment to LTG or soft guidance for Parties to revise future contribution to be compatible/into account LTG – COP decision setting out LTG as above, plus giving guidance to Parties to implement current and future contribution to be compatible with LTG
- 25. ADP workstream 2 (pre 2020) • Workstream 2: COP programme of action on actions & initiatives aiming at Net Zero (especially cities, subnational governments and others). – This programme would bring integrated actions and soft commitments, finance, CB, knowledge sharing platforms, – Net zero registry (as REDD+ has done) could be part of the broader agreement on Work Streams 1& 2.
- 26. Other COP agenda items re LTG • 2013-2015 review of global goal • Other agenda items could reflect 2deg C/LTG/net zero language within their separate agenda items (e.g. adaptation, loss and damage, national communications guidelines, MRV, finance, capacity building, Article 6, new registry) – Article 6 could require all Parties to scale up education requirements/core curricula, training for teachers in primary, secondary and tertiary sector and mandate Massive On Line Courses in all languages. – New registry could be organized to giver higher rewards, gold stars to initiatives that are net zero, with others listed in silver, bronze categories to recognise progress and leadership. • Sending a signal to the business community with policy certainty • A sense of unity and common direction!
- 27. The LTG in the ADP Negotiating Text
- 29. Option 2, Option (a): Recognizing that deep cuts in global greenhouse gas emissions will be required to achieve the ultimate objective of the Convention and the long-term temperature limit / hold the increase in global average temperature, and that such cuts must be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner, Option (c): [Recognizing the importance of long-term efforts to transition to low-carbon economies, mindful of the global temperature goal of 2 °C] Option (a): [Also recognizing that scenarios consistent with having a likely chance of holding the global average temperature increase to below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels include substantial cuts in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions by the mid-century and net emission levels near zero gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent or below in 2100, A. Preamble p. 1
- 30. A. Preamble p. 1 Option (b): Also recognizing that scenarios consistent with having a likely chance of holding the global average temperature increase to below 2 °C or 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels include substantial cuts in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions by the mid- century and zero emissions within the second half of this century,] Option (d): [Further recognizing that economy-wide emission reduction budgets provide the highest level of clarity, predictability and environmental integrity,]
- 31. Para 1. [The objective of this agreement is to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions in line with the ultimate objective of the Convention and to maintain and increase resilience to the adverse effects of climate change.] C. Objective p. 1
- 32. Para. 5 (5.1) Option (a): Ensuring significant global greenhouse gas emission reductions over the next few decades or a 40–70 per cent reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions below 2010 levels by 2050 and near-zero emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other long-lived greenhouse gases by the end of the century; Option (b): Ensuring that global greenhouse gas emissions peak by 2020 at the latest, are reduced by at least 50 per cent by 2050 and continue to decline thereafter [reaching near-zero emissions of CO2 and other long lived greenhouse gases by the end of the century, consistent with the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]; Option (d): Ensuring significant and rapid global greenhouse gas emission reductions of at least 70–95 per cent below 2010 levels by 2050 and negative emissions of CO2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases before 2080; C. Objective p. 5
- 33. D. Mitigation p. 9 Para 17 (17.2) Option 1, Option (a): A long-term zero emission sustainable development pathway [bearing in mind that social and economic development and poverty eradication are the first and overriding priorities of developing countries][ for developing countries that combines adaptation and mitigation to reduce climate change and its impacts]: i. Consistent with carbon neutrality / net zero emissions by 2050, or full decarbonization by 2050 and/or negative emissions by 2100 [for developed countries]; iii. Consistent with a global reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of at least 50 per cent by 2050 compared with the levels in 1990 and a continued decline in emissions thereafter, [in the context of equitable access to sustainable development and a global carbon budget][reaching near-zero emissions of CO2 and other long- lived greenhouse gases by the end of the century, consistent with the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change];
- 34. iv. Consistent with emissions peaking for [developed countries][Parties included in annex X] in 2015, with an aim of zero net emissions by 2050, in the context of equitable access to sustainable development; vii. Consistent with the scientific findings of the IPCC, in order to have a likely chance of keeping the temperature change to below 2 °C, global GHG emissions in 2050 will need to be 40 to 70 per cent lower than in 2010 and reach levels near zero Gt CO2 eq or below in 2100; viii. Ensuring significant and rapid global greenhouse gas emission reductions of at least 70–95 per cent below 2010 levels by 2050 and zero emissions of CO2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases in the period 2060–2080. Option 1, Option (b): A full decarbonization by 2050 for developed countries and a sustainable development pathway for developing countries consistent with a peaking of global greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible, noting that the time frame for peaking will be longer in developing countries, in the context of equitable access to sustainable development; D. Mitigation p. 9-10
- 35. Option 2: All Parties shall cooperate in achieving the peaking of global and national greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible, recognizing that, consistent with emissions peaking for developed countries in 2015, they shall aim to reduce net emissions to zero by 2050, and further recognizing that the time frame for peaking will be longer in developing countries, bearing in mind that social and economic development and poverty eradication are the first and overriding priorities of developing countries, in the context of equitable access to sustainable development.] D. Mitigation p. 10