Sitra, the Finnish Innovation Fund, has published its Trends List for 2014/15, detailing the issues likely to have profound effects on society and economies...
1. Megatrends | Sitra 2014/2015
Inter-dependency
Well-being is
becoming
Communities is increasing
are
empowered
Job stability
Europe's
structures
are
crumbling
Skills are
challenging
information
Human
lifespans are
increasing
Technology is
being
integrated
into everyday
life
is
disappearing
Power
relationships
are shifting
Inequality is
growing
The roles of
cities are
growing The effects of
climate
change are
broadening
more
important
Ecological
footprints are
outgrowing
our โshoesโ
2. Due to the complex and dynamic nature of the world, the linearity and causal
connections of large societal changes is difficult (or even impossible) to define in
purely objective terms. In reality, global changes are caused by the interaction of
numerous phenomena โ not individual, subjective trends.
The Sitra Trends List provides one interpretation of the directions of global societal
transformations โ megatrends. Information sources such as international and
national statistics, academic studies and consultations, previous trend work, news
articles and expert statements were used in the trend work. Megatrends include
three content sections: trends, counter-trends and questions for Finland.
The objective of the Trends List is to create a basis and a tool for conversation that
promotes understanding of the visible changes in the world, especially from
Finland's perspective.
Sitra โข Ernesto Hartikainen โข 10/2014
Our world is in
constant state
of flux
3. Boundaries between communities are becoming more vague as interconnectedness
and mobility increase
โข Surprising societal events are having powerful repercussions
โข Digitisation is uncoupling communities from their physical boundaries, enabling ever more
extensive and versatile virtual networks
โข International migration is continuing as people search for a better life, both of their own
volition and out of need
Changes are engendering national insecurities and uncertainty, threatening minority
cultures
โข Nationalist movements are rising against societies which are becoming more multinational and
multicultural in Europe, North America and Asia
โข Communities are increasing their level of self-sufficiency as critical natural resources dwindle
What is Finland's future role in the globalised world? A bridge-builder?
Sitra โข Ernesto Hartikainen โข 10/2014
Inter-dependency
is increasing
MULTIMEDIA
4. Peer-to-peer networks are becoming societies' basic structure
โข Hierarchical structures substituted by networks. Power of individuals are growing.
โข Information is becoming increasingly open and the refinement of large amounts of
information will create new business ventures. There will be five billion internet users by 2020
โข Models based on the sharing economy are creating new alternatives for ownership-based
consumption. At the same time, taxation models will have to be revamped
Networked structures are threatening traditional institutions
โข The parties wielding authoritarian power will tighten their grip on the news media
Could Finland be a pioneer of a new type of open, inclusive democracy?
Sitra โข Ernesto Hartikainen โข 10/2014
Communities
are
empowered
MULTIMEDIA
5. Changes in global power relationships are becoming more rapid
โข China becoming the world's largest economy and Asia the most significant economic area
โข Co-operation between BRICS countries will become tighter and oil reserves will bolster Brazil's
status in South America
โข The global significance of Africa will grow. The relationship between Russia and the West is
cooling owing to the situation in Ukraine
A feeling of insecurity is becoming more pervasive and centred on the individual
โข Tensions related to economic policy and protectionism increasing as natural resources dwindle
โข The increasingly global effects of fundamentalism and terrorism are bringing questions of
security to the foreground
โข Cyber monitoring is becoming more commonplace and extensive, incurring increasingly
conflicting feelings
What will guarantee the security of Finns in the future?
Sitra โข Ernesto Hartikainen โข 10/2014
Power
relationships
are shifting
MULTIMEDIA
6. Global warming is continuing to pick up pace
โข On the basis of the current trend, it is estimated that the climate will be 1.5-3หC warmer by
2050 than pre-industrial times (IPCC). This can be limited to 0.7-2.3หC (2050) by means of
determined global measures
โข Coastal regions are preparing for rising sea levels. Food shortages and uninhabitable areas are
major threats. As weather conditions change, the balance of natural ecosystems are disturbed
Curbing global warming entails opportunities which more people are becoming
aware of
โข Emission-free energy production will see strong growth in the coming decades, replacing
some fossil-based energy production
โข Decentralised energy production will become more common. The paths for energy revolutions
are very different between countries
How will Finland prepare for energy sector reform and millions of climate refugees?
The effects of
climate
change are
broadening
Sitra โข Ernesto Hartikainen โข 10/2014
MULTIMEDIA
7. Well-being is becoming a more significant goal at the individual and societal level
โข New well-being-enhancing services will be created as people focus more and more on self-improvement
and self-actualisation
โข The concept of well-being will be updated to suit the modern world, and attempts will be
made to apply it to societal steering
โข Countries that concentrate on well-being will fare better in economic terms than others due to
high value creation
Social cohesion in Western countries is deteriorating as the focus is placed on other
issues
โข Psychological symptoms are becoming more common in increasingly fast-paced, individualistic
societies. Well-being services will become focused on individuals
"The Finnish welfare state" and "well-being in Finland" โ are these the same thing?
Sitra โข Ernesto Hartikainen โข 10/2014
Well-being is
becoming
more
important
MULTIMEDIA
8. Europe's challenges are continuing, with no clear positive development directions in
sight
โข The EU has gone from trailblazer to a mammoth struggling with numerous challenges
โข The old Western democratic structures are considered too bureaucratic to respond to
increasingly rapid changes
โข The EU's economy will continue its slow development. Interest may even be negative. States
will continue to amass debt
โข An increasing share of the electorate are choosing not to vote, citing the closed nature of
representative democracy as well as its disconnect from their own experiences
The level of activity related to finding a new direction is picking up
โข Movements advocating change are becoming very popular across Europe
Will Finland find a gear that enables it to succeed in a more decrepit Europe?
Sitra โข Ernesto Hartikainen โข 10/2014
Europe's
structures
are
crumbling
MULTIMEDIA
9. Rising living standards and technological development are increasing human lifespan
โข Developing healthcare and lifestyles that prevent disease will extend life expectancies to over
100 years in several countries
โข The simultaneously decreasing birth rates will turn population structures from pyramids to
diamonds. In Europe, people between 50 and 80 will be the largest age group
โข As healthcare costs grow, prioritisation is becoming increasingly challenging. Which costs
should states be responsible for, and which should individuals shoulder?
The ageing population considered a resource by societies instead of an expense
โข Older people are forming a significant consumer group that is wealthy enough to pay for new
types of services. The societal impact of older people is growing
โข The experience, information and networks of senior citizens constitute a capital that can be
utilised more efficiently
How will the complementary skills of young people and senior citizens be used in
entrepreneurship?
Sitra โข Ernesto Hartikainen โข 10/2014
Human
lifespans are
increasing
MULTIMEDIA
10. Technological development is transforming societies rapidly and extensively
โข Technology is changing and becoming more mobile, integrated and user-oriented
โข Augmented reality, robotics and bionics enable new types of co-operation between man and
machine
โข Synthetic biology and nano materials will generate new product manufacturing methods
โข Healthcare is becoming more efficient due to developing organ production and monitoring
devices
The accelerating technological development is dividing people into proponents and
opponents of technology
โข "Experience-oriented" lifestyles will become more common, while connection to nature will
become more valuable
How will Finnish engineering skills coupled with societal know-how be
commercialised on a global scale?
Sitra โข Ernesto Hartikainen โข 10/2014
Technology is
being
integrated
into everyday
life
MULTIMEDIA
11. Access to humanity's collective information base is becoming increasingly easy,
stressing the importance of information utilisation skills
โข Innovations are being created more rapidly and by surprising parties on the basis of the open
innovation principle
โข Entrepreneurship, inspiration and a willingness to experiment are important
โข There will be a growing need for continuous learning, unlearning and re-learning throughout
people's lives. Self-steering and life-management skills are rising to the fore
All-round education as a concept will become more versatile as complexity grows
โข The value creation ability of โdigital nativesโ will be based on the ability to apply information
that has been accessed from available open sources
โข Learning and teaching methods will develop as cloud services and crowdsourced smart
services become more common. School systems will have to undergo reform to suit the
modern world
Do PISA tests fully indicate the ability of new generations to succeed in the future?
Sitra โข Ernesto Hartikainen โข 10/2014
Skills are
challenging
information
MULTIMEDIA
12. The proportional inequality of individuals' well-being within societies is growing
โข The gap between rich and poor is increasing on an individual level, even though various
countries' per capita income-level averages will become more uniform
โข The aim of global economic policy development will not be equality for individuals
โข Increasing social inequality propagates the growth of social problems. International
institutions (OECD, IMF) find this development troubling from the perspective of stable
economic development
โข Social trust is becoming weaker, while human rights violations become more common
Information-related inequality decreases as new forms of learning are introduced
โข Open access to the internet and e-learning tools reduce education-related inequality
โข Crowdsourcing services enable all internet users to raise capital
Equality has long been one of Finland's defining characteristics. Will this
development continue unchanged?
Sitra โข Ernesto Hartikainen โข 10/2014
Inequality is
growing
MULTIMEDIA
13. We face a labour revolution that will change our understanding of human work
โข Long work careers are disappearing, the nature of work is becoming more transient, versatile
and creative
โข The role of work in people's lives will decrease, while the significance of work grows
โข As manufacturing and service professions are digitised human work will be replaced with
automated software and robots
โข Global business will function on task and function levels. Competition for the best talent will
become tighter
In addition to big losers, big new winners will be created
โข A new era of entrepreneurship will create unforeseen opportunities for those that are able to
develop, implement and commercialise new, innovative ideas
โข The economy will continue to focus on services, with the majority of new work being created
in service sectors requiring versatile skills
How will Finland, which made its wealth on the back of industrialisation, create its
jobs in the future?
Sitra โข Ernesto Hartikainen โข 10/2014
Job stability
is
disappearing
MULTIMEDIA
14. Large societal changes are increasingly being carried out in cities
โข Over 30 megacities with populations of over 10 million will exist by 2025
โข General urbanisation is making municipal decision-making more important than government
decision-making. Symbolic cities and cities with some kind of special status will obtain special
roles
โข Smart City concepts will proliferate in societies that are becoming more densely developed
and are promoting the economy of denseness
Attempts will be made to create natural features in cities
โข Green areas, parks and natural construction will increase the natural effect in cities
โข Technological development will enable a physically less burdensome life in the countryside
and in agricultural jobs. Pressures to produce more food for city dwellers will continue to grow
How can Finland's city-planning processes be made to support the reform of
communities?
Sitra โข Ernesto Hartikainen โข 10/2014
The roles of
cities are
growing
MULTIMEDIA
15. The earth's biocapacity has already been exceeded in many ways โ the pressure to
create sustainability will grow
โข The earth's "consuming middle-classโ will grow from two to five billion between 2010 and
2030
โข 32 per cent of the food produced around the world is wasted every year. Energy and material
shortages will engender increasingly large conflicts worldwide
A circular economy and responsible business โ solutions to limited resources
โข Creative closed-circulation systems are becoming more common in different sectors across the
world. The EU is following the example set by China and Japan, placing the circular economy
high on the political agenda
โข The pressure for sustainable consumption will grow as resources dwindle and prices increase.
Resource-efficient sharing-based models will become more common, replacing ownership
How will Finland optimally utilise its unique water and forest resources?
Sitra โข Ernesto Hartikainen โข 10/2014
Ecological
footprints are
outgrowing
our โshoesโ
MULTIMEDIA
16. Building a successful Finland for tomorrow
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