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Copyright©2016NexxConsultants
Disclaimer
Nexx Consultants is incorporated under the Laws of Province of Ontario in Canada, Corporation No: 002369533.
The information, data and approaches provided herein are an outcome of our research and content expertise. Although we may refer to third party materials and/or
analyze their impact, the content is the outcome of Nexx's proprietary knowledge and is rightfully owned by us. This work is copyright protected and legally privileged.
Please do not distribute this presentation without the prior written consent of Nexx or its authorized affiliates.
Nexx has made best efforts to ensure that this material is complete in its entirety. However, we do not warrant its completeness, accuracy, usefulness or satisfaction
with all requirements.
Copyright © 2016 Nexx Consultants
IFRS 9
General impairment modelling of loans and
advances – our assistance themes
Contact us:
sfarooq@nexxconsultants.com
Copyright©2016NexxConsultants
Content
2
Introduction1
2 IFRS 9 impact
3 Modelling overview
3 Modelling approach
4 Data challenges
5 Our assistance themes
6 Our credentials
7 Why Nexx
Copyright©2016NexxConsultants
Content
3
Introduction1
2 IFRS 9 impact
3 Modelling overview
4 Modelling approach
5 Data challenges
6 Our assistance themes
7 Our credentials
8 Why Nexx
Copyright©2016NexxConsultants
Executive summary
4
• IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards) 9 recognize early information that impacts credit expectations.
Under the new regime, significant increase in credit risk leads to recognition of lifetime losses. Banks would be
required to report provisioning based on a set of forward looking risk parameters
o The new standards replace IAS (International Accounting Standards) 39, with compliance expected to be
mandatory from annual periods beginning on or after January 1, 2018
• Among other requirements, this places an increased burden on financial institutions to use more sophisticated
impairment models to aid the recognition of credit losses prior to a loss event. Nexx Consultants (Nexx) has
considerable experience in this area, which includes:
o Loans and advances segmentation
o 12 month Expected Loss (EL) modelling
o Lifetime Expected Loss (LEL) modelling
o Incorporating forward-looking macro-economic data into weighted Credit Risk models
o Provisioning reporting and assistance with accreditation
• Unlike Basel’s EL modelling, which is determined for a 1-year period, IFRS 9 requires forward-looking Point-in-Time
determination of LEL using an objective transfer criteria from performing to non-credit or credit impaired buckets
• To-date analysts’ focus on loan loss provisioning has been variable, but this is likely to change as rating agencies and
regulators are expected to get more involved, potentially increasing scrutiny, due to IFRS 9-related disclosure
• This presentation provides an overview of modelling requirements. It also highlights our provisioning modelling,
validation and accreditation experience, including our headline assistance themes that address the needs of FS
executives and regulators
o Our relevant experience, the calibre of our consultants and tailored IFRS 9 delivery methodology means we can
be your delivery partner of choice
Copyright©2016NexxConsultants
5
IFRS 9 compliant provisioning model:
Design, development, testing and roll-out
Nexx’s assistance themes
Nexx offers 360-degree assistance, ranging from model development
to assistance with accreditation
Governance and
on-going
management
Functional
alignment
Audit and
Regulatory
representation
Rating
agency
Business
alignment
Methodology
User Manual
Developed and quality-assured by our team of
experts, including Dr. Michel Crouhy, Ph.D; Sohail
Farooq, MQF
Copyright©2016NexxConsultants
Key attributes of Nexx’s models
6
✓ Customized models (Stage 1 to Stage 2 to Stage 3) available in MS Excel VBA or developed as
bespoke software models
✓ Models built for banks using standardized IRB or AIRB approach
✓ Models built based on best practices – no black box using verifiable approaches
✓ Our service includes first three years of provisioning approach presentations to the auditors and
regulators, considered sufficient period for accreditation
✓ Models come with a Methodology document and a user manual
Copyright©2016NexxConsultants
We offer complete consulting engagement covering business,
functional areas and communication with external stakeholders
IFRS 9
Business alignment
Functional alignment
• Model design and build,
examples include:
o Top-down
o Bottom-up
o Hybrid
• Other illustrative workstreams
include:
o Data
o Model production
o Internal modelling
refinements (e.g., dual
calibration)
o Validation and
benchmarking
• Refinement of pricing engine
• Alignment with risk appetite
• RWA optimization
• Balance sheet positioning
• Recovery and collection
• Policies and compliance manuals
• Products design and structuring
• Internal reporting
• External reporting (e.g., rating
agency packs,
7
Copyright©2016NexxConsultants
Nexx Consultants can assist a cross-section of stakeholders
Stakeholders Assistance themes Estimated effort
Regulators • Systemic risk impact analysis and dashboard design
• Stakeholder communication including FSAP packs
• 12 FTE months
• 12 FTE months
Chief Executive
Officer
• Upfront identification of volatile portfolios (due to higher provisions) and
approaches to address volatility, including:
o Credit portfolio strategy
o RWA optimization
• Balance sheet repositioning
• Risk-based pricing
• 12 FTE months
• 12 FTE months
• 60 FTE months
• 12 FTE months
• 8 FTE months
Chief Risk Officer • Dual calibration of PDs
• Data and system design and architecture
• Increased portfolio granularity and changes in master rating scale
• Internal reporting
• Collections and recovery
• 16 FTE months
• 24 FTE months
• 12 FTE months
• 6 FTE months
• 12 FTE months
Chief Financial
Officer
• IFRS 9 modelling and validation
• Rating agency/stakeholder reporting
• Draft commentary on provisioning
• 60 FTE months
• 6 FTE months
• 3 FTE months
Chief Compliance
Officer
• Governance and policy design • 8 FTE months
Internal Audit and
Assurance
• Review and verification of approaches
• References and benchmarking
• 3 FTE months
• 3 FTE months
8
Copyright©2016NexxConsultants
Content
9
Introduction1
2 IFRS 9 impact
3 Modelling overview
4 Modelling approach
5 Data challenges
6 Our assistance themes
7 Our credentials
8 Why Nexx
Copyright©2016NexxConsultants
IFRS 9 – an overview
10
• IFRS 9 works on updated provision rules that are based on parameters prescribed as point in
time (PIT) and are forward looking
o The accounting rule implies that risk modelling and measurement needs to address
multi-year risk measures
 Existing risk parameters modeled under Basel are through-the-cycle (TTC) and are
designed as 1- year risk measures
• IFRS 9 classifies Loans and Advances in three buckets:
Stage 1
Stage 2
• Assets with credit quality adversely affected by “observable events”. An
acceptable criteria is how the price of credit risk varies to reflect ‘significant
increase in credit risk’ since the origination (excludes Investment grade)
• Provision of the expected losses over the lifetime of the loan
• Portfolio level assessment
• Performing category
• Provision of the expected loss for the year to come (1 year only)
Stage 3
• Assessment on individual basis
• Specific loans for which losses have been observed
• Provision the expected losses over the lifetime of the loan
Copyright©2016NexxConsultants
Model formulation for IFRS 9
11
• IFRS 9’s Lifetime expected credit losses requirement introduces the time aspect of the default event, as in
survival models. This approach is different relative to credit scoring models, which are calibrated to through
the cycle estimates of probabilities of default over a 1 year horizon
o Survival approach explicitly models the timing of a default event (if any)
 Survival probability is the default density / unconditional probability of default (PD) and are
given as follows:
q(t)=h(t)e− ℎ(𝜏)𝑑𝜏
𝑡
0
 The Survival Rate q(t) is defined so that q(t) is the unconditional probability of default as seen
at time “zero”
 The hazard rate h(t) is the probability of default conditional on no earlier default (analogous to
point-in-time PD). Hazard rates are often referred to as the default intensity / conditional default
probability
o The default densities (Cumulative probability of default or survival probability) tell you what the
probability is of a name surviving. They increase with time because they are cumulative
o The hazard rate does not necessarily increase with time, this is because hazard rates are the default
probabilities conditional on no earlier default (representing the conditional probability that the default
occurs in a small time interval)
• Observations: Marginal PIT PD is larger than the marginal TTC PD in periods of recession, while it is
smaller than the marginal TTC PD in expansions. Furthermore, the empirical results indicate that the
cumulative TTC PD tends to be higher than the cumulative PIT PD
• The hazard rate function used to characterize the distribution of survival time can also be called a “credit
curve”
An introduction to credit risk modelling (Christian Bluhm, Ludger O verbeck and Christoph Wagner)
Option, Futures and Other Derivatives (John C. Hull)
Copyright©2016NexxConsultants
IFRS 9 is based on a principles based approach
No precise transfer criteria but includes indicators
12
Initial
recognition
60 DPD
(Watchlist)
Performing
90 DPD 180 DPD 365+ DPD270 DPD30 DPD
(In focus)
Rebuttable
assumption of
impairment
Impaired Default
Stage 1* Stage 2* Stage 3*
Credit risk at
initial recognition
Impaired credit risk/
Underperforming
Defaulted credit risk/
Non-performing
Non-credit impaired:
• Has the credit risk increased significantly since initial recognition?
• Assigned watch list monitoring?
o Changes in external market indicators (e.g. credit default
swaps prices for the borrower)
o Adverse changes in business, financial or economic
conditions
o Past due information
o Downgrade of the internal or external rating
o Changes in pricing since origination
* Illustrative only, not developed to the scale
Credit impaired
• Write-off policy considerations
o No reasonable expectation of recovery
o Some indicators to consider
o Has the security been realized
o All legal recourses have been exhausted
o Status of the borrower
Copyright©2016NexxConsultants
13
Illustrative migration from each stage
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3
12 month expected loss
Lifetime expected loss on portfolio
which has its credit risk increased
Lifetime expected loss on loans
with credit impaired
Example: Modeled
Lifetime Expected
Losses > Actual 30
DPD Lifetime
Expected Losses
Example: Calculation
of Lifetime Expected
Losses for loans => 90
DPD
• 30 day past due rebuttable presumption (relying primarily on this backstop would be a weak implementation)
• Significant increase in default risk (not EL) from original risk recognition
• Significant determined in terms of additional to that which would be included in the pricing decision at origination
• Forward looking, taking account of macro-economic factors at regional or sectoral level
• Applied consistently across all entities within a group
• Simple notch downgrade approach is unlikely to be sufficiently granular
Stage 2 indicators
Copyright©2016NexxConsultants
Addressing the challenges of IFRS 9
14
Cost challenge Methodology challenge Model challenge
• Cost to develop
o Cost to develop varies and is a
function of scale of the effort
• Cost of doing business
o Product managers need to
ensure that products are either
redesigned and/or repriced to
remain viable post IFRS 9
• Capital impact
o The potential increase in P&L
volatility requires Treasury to
manage capital and liquidity
dynamically
• Governance and Disclosure
o Programme Sponsor (typically
the CFO) will need to explain
the strategic impacts of IFRS 9
to the Board
o Need for further detailed
disclosure in order for
investors to understand the
P&L volatility
• Transfer criteria
o On what basis are the loans
transferred from Stage 1 to
Stage 2
o Develop policy documents, i.e.,
impairment, write-down, write-
off and downgrades
• Methodology design
o Understand data requirements
and its availability before
designing IFRS 9 model
approach
o Have development plan in
place and maintain the audit
trail
o Engage internal stakeholders
from the beginning, e.g.,
compliance, internal audit
• Undertake test runs and document
methodology
• System integration
• Definition of default
o Apply standard default
definition across the board,
i.e., 90 DPD
• Data challenge: Identify and
benchmark data requirements for
IFRS 9 model
• Methodology design a function of
data and portfolio make up
• Key model development criteria:
o Risk parameters and their
compliance with IFRS 9
requirements
o Segmentation and forward
looking criteria
• Each modelling approach has its
pros and cons
o Examples: top-down, bottom-
up or hybrid
o All things being equal, more
granular approaches are
beneficial
Copyright©2016NexxConsultants
Content
15
Introduction1
2 IFRS 9 impact
3 Modelling overview
4 Modelling approach
5 Data challenges
6 Our assistance themes
7 Our credentials
8 Why Nexx
Copyright©2016NexxConsultants
IFRS 9 model development value chain
16
• On-balance
sheet
taxonomy
o Committed vs.
demand
facilities
o Revolvers:
Drawn vs.
undrawn
• Off-balance
sheet:
o Credit
conversion of
off-balance
sheet
facilities
• Data
requirements
• Understanding
of available
data
• Identification
of data
sources
• Data
extraction and
cleaning
• Data
transformation
• Model build
• Testing
• Prototyping
and
discussion of
results
• Portfolios and
sub-portfolios
of banking
book
o Retail,
corporate,
small-medium
enterprises
• Develop
impairment
criteria
• Understanding
of modelling
approach
options
• Design
dimensions
and pros and
cons relative
to data and
system
architecture
• Pilot run
• Use test
• Validation
• Reporting
• Talking points
and stakeholder
packs
• Implications for
business and
functions,
including, CEO,
CFO, CRO,
Compliance, IT
and Systems,
and Internal
Audit
Taxonomy
Risk
parameters
data
Model build Use-test and
validation
ImplicationsSegmentation Methodology
design
Copyright©2016NexxConsultants
IFRS 9 FAQs I/II
Question Explanation
 What is IFRS 9?  IFRS 9 is designed to provide a more principle-based and less
complex approach to financial assets classification, a forward-
looking impairment model, and better linkage between
accounting and risk management for hedge accounting
 What are the key
changes?
 The impairment model introduced by IFRS 9 may represent the
most significant shift in accounting since the last financial
crisis. This model will have consequences for bank’s financial
statements and regulatory capital, and will result in greater
provisions and earlier recognition of credit losses. It is also
expected to have a substantial impact on the volatility of the
profit and loss (P&L) statement
 What is the
expected impact?
 Overall, the International Accounting Standard Board (“IASB”)
fieldwork results have revealed that the transitional impact of
IFRS 9 on impairments will range from 20% – 250%, with
stressed impairments up to 400%. SME portfolios are expected
to increase in the range of 0% – 50%. It is expected that IFRS
9 will increase overall loan loss provisions by at least 30%
 What are the key
implementation
requirements?
 Transitioning to the new standard is a monumental task.
Implementation – now occurring at most large institutions –
requires considerable systemic and process change, increased
portfolio segmentation, new types of data, and potentially, the
need to integrate credit risk management and accounting
systems.
17
Copyright©2016NexxConsultants
Question Explanation
 When can I start
and what are the
first few things
that I need to do?
 Start as soon as possible. Major steps that need to be taken
are: Choice of implementation approach, data and system
design and architecture and disclosure. Depending on the
complexity of a financial institution, the estimated time to
complete IFRS 9 implementation is 6 – 22 months delivered by
a team of 2 – 3 FTE’s.
 My bank reports
capital using
standardized
approach and we
do not have
granular PD data,
do I still need to
report results
using IFRS 9?
 For Standardized Approach banks, any impairment loss on a
loan based on income statements has a direct impact on Core
Tier 1 capital, as it reduces retained earnings.
 Increased non-collective provision stock upon IFRS 9 transition
would reduce the Core Tier 1 capital, but if classified as
‘collective impairment’, the cumulative provisions could be
eligible as Tier 2 capital (up to 1.25% of risk weighted assets)
 IFRS 9 provisioning may also lead to more expensive loan
growth
 What are the
expected
implementation
costs?
 Implementation costs are material. Implementation – now
taking place at most large institutions – requires changes to
systems and processes, greater segmentation of portfolios,
new types of data and potentially, and integration of credit risk
management systems with accounting systems. Moreover,
regulatory planning should be taken into account – for
example, impact on regulatory ratios, etc.
18
IFRS 9 FAQs II/II
Copyright©2016NexxConsultants
Content
19
Introduction1
2 IFRS 9 impact
3 Modelling overview
4 Modelling approach
5 Data challenges
6 Our assistance themes
7 Our credentials
8 Why Nexx
Copyright©2016NexxConsultants
Building blocks of model-development
Consider developing a principles-based approach
20
• Principle One: Leveraging of the current structure
o Accounting should not change the risk management and monitoring practices, but be a tool
with which to improve them. Key steps:
 Conduct modelling and impact studies, and commence work on the tool design and
calibration of calculators
 Leverage its existing processes to manage the interplay between accounting, regulatory
and risk management processes
• Principle Two: Simplicity
o Avoid ‘black box’ effects, develop prototypes and customize solutions as opposed to adopting
a full automated framework. Develop a robust, auditable process from inception and an
understanding of the provision variations
• Principle Three: Proportionality
o Use the concepts of materiality and proportionality to ensure that the impairment framework is
properly communicated and the implementation proceeds as expected. For the most
significant entities in terms of exposure or credit risk, a ‘referenced’ method is used. A
simplified approach for less significant entities is considered where there is less data available
• Principle Four: Comparability
o Comparability and benchmarking with peers plays an important role
Copyright©2016NexxConsultants
Content
21
Introduction1
2 IFRS 9 impact
3 Modelling overview
4 Modelling approach
5 Data challenges
6 Our assistance themes
7 Our credentials
8 Why Nexx
Copyright©2016NexxConsultants
Overall approach
Data
Gathering
Final
Provisions
Interpretation
of Results
• Comparison of
provisions under
each approach
• Appropriate
balance between
accounting and
regulatory concerns
Initial
Model
Building
Model
Refinement
Stage 2
• Establishment of
general framework
• Initial assumptions
• Model development
• Comparison of
Lifetime EL
• Refinement of
assumptions
o Discount rate
o Recovery Rate
o Time to recovery
o …..
Initial
Model
Building
Model
Refinement
Stage 1
• Establishment of
general framework
• Comparison of
Lifetime EL
• Refinement of
assumptions
o PIT PD
o PIT LGD
o Other parameters
• Multiple scenarios
• Final estimate of
appropriate
provisions year
over year
• Draft commentary
about provisioning
levels for annual
report
22
Copyright©2016NexxConsultants
Developing term structure of PDs
An overview of our approaches
Markovian
approach
• Term structure for default probabilities can be created using the empirical data on transition matrices
• PDs are based upon raw migration data, the resulting matrices may not be well behaved. For a matrix
to be well-behaved, one would like to see a no-crossing property between ratings. This property
requires that PDs increase monotonically as credit quality worsens. For example, the 9 and 10 year
cumulative PDs for an AA obligor should be higher than that of an AAA obligor. Moreover, there may
be very little empirical information on defaults for high quality obligors, i.e. AAA and AA rated obligors
Loss
distribution
• Understanding the full loss distribution beyond EL requires the modelling of correlations and
concentrations in the portfolio
• Key questions:
o How do we aggregate credit risk from that of a single borrower to capture the entire portfolio?
o Should we hold provisions only for potential losses from deterioration in individual credits or also
from deterioration in the economic value of the portfolio? (e.g. through rating migration)
Merton’s
model
• Merton’s model measures “distance for default” as a function of systemic and idiosyncratic factors
• Views GDP & equity measures as asset-value proxies
o Derive macro DDs (‘Default-Distance’) as ratios of leverage to historical, leverage volatility
o Convert macro DDs to macro Zs (by normalising mean & variance)
o Enter industry-region Zs into the PD, LGD, and EAD models and derive conditional losses
23
Copyright©2016NexxConsultants
Content
24
Introduction1
2 IFRS 9 impact
3 Modelling overview
4 Modelling approach
5 Data challenges
6 Our assistance themes
7 Our credentials
8 Why Nexx
Copyright©2016NexxConsultants
Customized approaches for each banking cohort
25
Approach
options
IRB accredited banks
IRB ready (or in progress) but
not accredited
Standardized approach banks
Bottom-up approach
• Granular approach using PIT
calibration
• Risk neutral or market implied term
structure of PDs using forward
looking approach for Lifetime ELs
Hybrid approach
• Identify access to data for bottom-up
and develop work plan to develop
bottom-up approach for the remaining
portfolio, i.e., where top-down
approach is used
Top down approach
• Top-down portfolio level approach to
determine PIT PD’s using cycle-
adjustment factor
• Use Merton’s risk-neutral approach
for term structure of PDs for Lifetime
ELs
Copyright©2016NexxConsultants
Content
26
Introduction1
2 IFRS 9 impact
3 Modelling overview
4 Modelling approach
5 Data challenges
6 Our assistance themes
7 Our credentials
8 Why Nexx
Copyright©2016NexxConsultants
Gap
analysis
IFRS 9 adoption timeline: January 2018
Key next steps
27
Data feeds
architecture
Data current state Data extraction Data cleaning Data logic
PolicyStrategic
System
architecture
Functional
alignment
Business
alignment
Approach design
Risk parameters
current state
Portfolio
alignment
Model design
Model
development
Process design
Reporting and
governance
Reporting
architecture
Reporting sign-
off
Hedge
accounting
Copyright©2016NexxConsultants
Content
28
Introduction1
2 IFRS 9 impact
3 Modelling overview
4 Modelling approach
5 Data challenges
6 Our assistance themes
7 Our credentials
8 Why Nexx
Copyright©2016NexxConsultants
Nexx’s team has been at the forefront of early developments of
provisioning models – assisting central banks and auditing firms
29
Dynamic provisioning has been championed by Spanish officials and by banking
regulators elsewhere as a counter-cyclical alternative to the status quo
Banco de España, Spain‟s central bank and its banking supervisor, put dynamic
provisions into place in July 2000, to cope with a sharp increase in credit risk on
Spanish banks‟ statements of financial position following a period of significant
credit growth
Other countries that have been using dynamic provisioning well before IFRS 9 are
Oman, Peru, Columbia and Uruguay
“Dynamic Provisioning is a macro-prudential tool to enhance bank soundness
and to help mitigate part of the procyclicality of the banking system”
- Jesús Saurina (Head of Financial Stability Department of the Banco de
España)
Copyright©2016NexxConsultants
Over the last few years, Nexx’s team developed several
provisioning models
OW
Credentials
• Lead modelling design and developments for HSBC and
Barclays
• Valuation of credit linked notes
• Models approved and accredited by FSA/PRA and local regulators
o Conducted workshops for Central Banks
• Well known participant in F&R forums and conferences
• Multiple publications and reports on capital management
• Coordinated multiple surveys/self-assessment amongst leading
institutions on capital measurement and management
Credentials
30
Copyright©2016NexxConsultants
Moody’s validation of the PIT provisioning model
• Moody’s compared
HSBC’s provisioning
model with its
flagship Risk
Frontier, and
assigned a
satisfactory rating
• Not less than 75% in
any test category
31
Copyright©2016NexxConsultants
Content
32
Introduction1
2 IFRS 9 impact
3 Modelling overview
4 Modelling approach
5 Data challenges
6 Our assistance themes
7 Our credentials
8 Why Nexx
Copyright©2016NexxConsultants
33
Why Nexx Consultants
Engagement model
We offer three permutations of engagement
model:
• Content
• Consulting
• Training
Risk and inter-domain
expertise
We are risk experts. We focus on risk and its
intersection with other domains. We assist
clients improve the models, tools, and
processes to manage risk
Delivery track record
Nexx Consultants are experts in the
delivery of large scale and
complex risk programmes. Our
deliverables have been independently
validated and accredited by regulators
across the world
Knowledge transfer
Our engagements are designed to upskill client
capabilities. Our collaborative approach allows division
of labor based on specialist model
Consulting team
experience
Each member of our team brings a unique
perspective - backed by an average of 10
years relevant industry
experience gained at the world's leading
Financial Institutions and consulting firms
We deliver solutions tailored to our clients
profiles
Why Nexx
Consultants?
Copyright©2016NexxConsultants
Project Areas Example Deliverables
Credit risk
Credit rating Scorecards development across various asset classes
Loss parameters estimation PD, LGD, EAD models development, calibration and
master scale development
Validation Powerstats, K-S, Gini, AUC
Pricing Risk adjusted return on capital (transaction and portfolio)
Credit portfolio Loss distribution/parameter estimation/Credit Portfolio Management
Provisioning IFRS 9, Dynamic provisioning fund
Market risk
Securities Portfolio optimization, Performance attribution, Expected Shortfall and VaR
Financial instruments Valuation, development and implementation of interest rate libraries
Liquidity risk
ALM Interest rate risk in banking book
Cost of funds Transfer pricing/yield curve development
Balance sheet Behavioral risk analysis of deposits
Operational risk
Measurement Loss distribution, scenario-based capitalization of operational risk
Management Risk Control Self-Assessment (RCSA), Key Risk Indicators’ attribution
Non-financial risks
Value drivers Risk appetite design and implementation
Capital management
Planning and budgeting Integrated planning, forecasting
Regulatory Pillar 1, Pillar 2, Capital buffer management
Economic capital Stress testing, Economic capital modelling
An illustration of our risk-related activities
34References available1
1
Copyright©2016NexxConsultants
Sohail Farooq, Co-founder
18+ years as risk practitioner
Specialties: Risk measurement, dynamic provisioning, capitalization and stress testing
Education: MQF, MBA
Nexx’s senior team
Micheal Bi, Co-founder
20+ years regulatory and industry experience
Specialties: Design and implementation of risk applications and systems
Education: Ph.D. System Design Engineering
35
Dr. Michel Crouhy, Subject-matter expert
25+ years as risk practitioner
Specialties: Validation, stress testing, including CCAR, DFAST
Education: PhD Finance, Doctoris Honoris Causa
Copyright©2016NexxConsultants
Benefits
36
Continuity
of brand,
not of
expertise
Knowledge
transfer and
upskilling
• Our niche focus is built upon our pool of highly specialized staff. This ensures that:
o There is true client-consultant continuity at a resource level
o We establish a thorough understanding of the specific business needs, as well as
the unique market, organizational and economic reality each client faces
o This understanding is maintained throughout a given project and subsequent to the
conclusion of our work because we continue to provide advice and perspectives on
certain topics and market developments to our clients
Fixed price
business
model
• Knowledge transfer is fundamental to the success of our projects.
• We make knowledge transfer “business as usual” so that we can deliver tangible and
sustained business value
• Individual engagements are designed on the basis of
o “Appropriateness of fit” within the organization
o Building capabilities within our clients that outlast Nexx’s involvement on the project
• Our teams work closely with client counterparts to promote the exchange of knowledge
• Our business model typically operates on a fixed price contract basis, which ensures that
there is budget certainty without extension risk to the client
• We truly partner with our clients to share the project risks, adopting a “we are in the
same boat” mentality.
Copyright©2016NexxConsultants
Disclaimer
Nexx Consultants is incorporated under the Laws of Province of Ontario in Canada, Corporation No: 002369533.
The information, data and approaches provided herein are an outcome of our research and content expertise. Although we may refer to third party materials and/or
analyze their impact, the content is the outcome of Nexx's proprietary knowledge and is rightfully owned by us. This work is copyright protected and legally privileged.
Please do not distribute this presentation without the prior written consent of Nexx or its authorized affiliates.
Nexx has made best efforts to ensure that this material is complete in its entirety. However, we do not warrant its completeness, accuracy, usefulness or satisfaction
with all requirements.
Copyright © 2016 Nexx Consultants
Thank You

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Nexx consultants - IFRS 9 offering

  • 1. Copyright©2016NexxConsultants Disclaimer Nexx Consultants is incorporated under the Laws of Province of Ontario in Canada, Corporation No: 002369533. The information, data and approaches provided herein are an outcome of our research and content expertise. Although we may refer to third party materials and/or analyze their impact, the content is the outcome of Nexx's proprietary knowledge and is rightfully owned by us. This work is copyright protected and legally privileged. Please do not distribute this presentation without the prior written consent of Nexx or its authorized affiliates. Nexx has made best efforts to ensure that this material is complete in its entirety. However, we do not warrant its completeness, accuracy, usefulness or satisfaction with all requirements. Copyright © 2016 Nexx Consultants IFRS 9 General impairment modelling of loans and advances – our assistance themes Contact us: sfarooq@nexxconsultants.com
  • 2. Copyright©2016NexxConsultants Content 2 Introduction1 2 IFRS 9 impact 3 Modelling overview 3 Modelling approach 4 Data challenges 5 Our assistance themes 6 Our credentials 7 Why Nexx
  • 3. Copyright©2016NexxConsultants Content 3 Introduction1 2 IFRS 9 impact 3 Modelling overview 4 Modelling approach 5 Data challenges 6 Our assistance themes 7 Our credentials 8 Why Nexx
  • 4. Copyright©2016NexxConsultants Executive summary 4 • IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards) 9 recognize early information that impacts credit expectations. Under the new regime, significant increase in credit risk leads to recognition of lifetime losses. Banks would be required to report provisioning based on a set of forward looking risk parameters o The new standards replace IAS (International Accounting Standards) 39, with compliance expected to be mandatory from annual periods beginning on or after January 1, 2018 • Among other requirements, this places an increased burden on financial institutions to use more sophisticated impairment models to aid the recognition of credit losses prior to a loss event. Nexx Consultants (Nexx) has considerable experience in this area, which includes: o Loans and advances segmentation o 12 month Expected Loss (EL) modelling o Lifetime Expected Loss (LEL) modelling o Incorporating forward-looking macro-economic data into weighted Credit Risk models o Provisioning reporting and assistance with accreditation • Unlike Basel’s EL modelling, which is determined for a 1-year period, IFRS 9 requires forward-looking Point-in-Time determination of LEL using an objective transfer criteria from performing to non-credit or credit impaired buckets • To-date analysts’ focus on loan loss provisioning has been variable, but this is likely to change as rating agencies and regulators are expected to get more involved, potentially increasing scrutiny, due to IFRS 9-related disclosure • This presentation provides an overview of modelling requirements. It also highlights our provisioning modelling, validation and accreditation experience, including our headline assistance themes that address the needs of FS executives and regulators o Our relevant experience, the calibre of our consultants and tailored IFRS 9 delivery methodology means we can be your delivery partner of choice
  • 5. Copyright©2016NexxConsultants 5 IFRS 9 compliant provisioning model: Design, development, testing and roll-out Nexx’s assistance themes Nexx offers 360-degree assistance, ranging from model development to assistance with accreditation Governance and on-going management Functional alignment Audit and Regulatory representation Rating agency Business alignment Methodology User Manual Developed and quality-assured by our team of experts, including Dr. Michel Crouhy, Ph.D; Sohail Farooq, MQF
  • 6. Copyright©2016NexxConsultants Key attributes of Nexx’s models 6 ✓ Customized models (Stage 1 to Stage 2 to Stage 3) available in MS Excel VBA or developed as bespoke software models ✓ Models built for banks using standardized IRB or AIRB approach ✓ Models built based on best practices – no black box using verifiable approaches ✓ Our service includes first three years of provisioning approach presentations to the auditors and regulators, considered sufficient period for accreditation ✓ Models come with a Methodology document and a user manual
  • 7. Copyright©2016NexxConsultants We offer complete consulting engagement covering business, functional areas and communication with external stakeholders IFRS 9 Business alignment Functional alignment • Model design and build, examples include: o Top-down o Bottom-up o Hybrid • Other illustrative workstreams include: o Data o Model production o Internal modelling refinements (e.g., dual calibration) o Validation and benchmarking • Refinement of pricing engine • Alignment with risk appetite • RWA optimization • Balance sheet positioning • Recovery and collection • Policies and compliance manuals • Products design and structuring • Internal reporting • External reporting (e.g., rating agency packs, 7
  • 8. Copyright©2016NexxConsultants Nexx Consultants can assist a cross-section of stakeholders Stakeholders Assistance themes Estimated effort Regulators • Systemic risk impact analysis and dashboard design • Stakeholder communication including FSAP packs • 12 FTE months • 12 FTE months Chief Executive Officer • Upfront identification of volatile portfolios (due to higher provisions) and approaches to address volatility, including: o Credit portfolio strategy o RWA optimization • Balance sheet repositioning • Risk-based pricing • 12 FTE months • 12 FTE months • 60 FTE months • 12 FTE months • 8 FTE months Chief Risk Officer • Dual calibration of PDs • Data and system design and architecture • Increased portfolio granularity and changes in master rating scale • Internal reporting • Collections and recovery • 16 FTE months • 24 FTE months • 12 FTE months • 6 FTE months • 12 FTE months Chief Financial Officer • IFRS 9 modelling and validation • Rating agency/stakeholder reporting • Draft commentary on provisioning • 60 FTE months • 6 FTE months • 3 FTE months Chief Compliance Officer • Governance and policy design • 8 FTE months Internal Audit and Assurance • Review and verification of approaches • References and benchmarking • 3 FTE months • 3 FTE months 8
  • 9. Copyright©2016NexxConsultants Content 9 Introduction1 2 IFRS 9 impact 3 Modelling overview 4 Modelling approach 5 Data challenges 6 Our assistance themes 7 Our credentials 8 Why Nexx
  • 10. Copyright©2016NexxConsultants IFRS 9 – an overview 10 • IFRS 9 works on updated provision rules that are based on parameters prescribed as point in time (PIT) and are forward looking o The accounting rule implies that risk modelling and measurement needs to address multi-year risk measures  Existing risk parameters modeled under Basel are through-the-cycle (TTC) and are designed as 1- year risk measures • IFRS 9 classifies Loans and Advances in three buckets: Stage 1 Stage 2 • Assets with credit quality adversely affected by “observable events”. An acceptable criteria is how the price of credit risk varies to reflect ‘significant increase in credit risk’ since the origination (excludes Investment grade) • Provision of the expected losses over the lifetime of the loan • Portfolio level assessment • Performing category • Provision of the expected loss for the year to come (1 year only) Stage 3 • Assessment on individual basis • Specific loans for which losses have been observed • Provision the expected losses over the lifetime of the loan
  • 11. Copyright©2016NexxConsultants Model formulation for IFRS 9 11 • IFRS 9’s Lifetime expected credit losses requirement introduces the time aspect of the default event, as in survival models. This approach is different relative to credit scoring models, which are calibrated to through the cycle estimates of probabilities of default over a 1 year horizon o Survival approach explicitly models the timing of a default event (if any)  Survival probability is the default density / unconditional probability of default (PD) and are given as follows: q(t)=h(t)e− ℎ(𝜏)𝑑𝜏 𝑡 0  The Survival Rate q(t) is defined so that q(t) is the unconditional probability of default as seen at time “zero”  The hazard rate h(t) is the probability of default conditional on no earlier default (analogous to point-in-time PD). Hazard rates are often referred to as the default intensity / conditional default probability o The default densities (Cumulative probability of default or survival probability) tell you what the probability is of a name surviving. They increase with time because they are cumulative o The hazard rate does not necessarily increase with time, this is because hazard rates are the default probabilities conditional on no earlier default (representing the conditional probability that the default occurs in a small time interval) • Observations: Marginal PIT PD is larger than the marginal TTC PD in periods of recession, while it is smaller than the marginal TTC PD in expansions. Furthermore, the empirical results indicate that the cumulative TTC PD tends to be higher than the cumulative PIT PD • The hazard rate function used to characterize the distribution of survival time can also be called a “credit curve” An introduction to credit risk modelling (Christian Bluhm, Ludger O verbeck and Christoph Wagner) Option, Futures and Other Derivatives (John C. Hull)
  • 12. Copyright©2016NexxConsultants IFRS 9 is based on a principles based approach No precise transfer criteria but includes indicators 12 Initial recognition 60 DPD (Watchlist) Performing 90 DPD 180 DPD 365+ DPD270 DPD30 DPD (In focus) Rebuttable assumption of impairment Impaired Default Stage 1* Stage 2* Stage 3* Credit risk at initial recognition Impaired credit risk/ Underperforming Defaulted credit risk/ Non-performing Non-credit impaired: • Has the credit risk increased significantly since initial recognition? • Assigned watch list monitoring? o Changes in external market indicators (e.g. credit default swaps prices for the borrower) o Adverse changes in business, financial or economic conditions o Past due information o Downgrade of the internal or external rating o Changes in pricing since origination * Illustrative only, not developed to the scale Credit impaired • Write-off policy considerations o No reasonable expectation of recovery o Some indicators to consider o Has the security been realized o All legal recourses have been exhausted o Status of the borrower
  • 13. Copyright©2016NexxConsultants 13 Illustrative migration from each stage Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 12 month expected loss Lifetime expected loss on portfolio which has its credit risk increased Lifetime expected loss on loans with credit impaired Example: Modeled Lifetime Expected Losses > Actual 30 DPD Lifetime Expected Losses Example: Calculation of Lifetime Expected Losses for loans => 90 DPD • 30 day past due rebuttable presumption (relying primarily on this backstop would be a weak implementation) • Significant increase in default risk (not EL) from original risk recognition • Significant determined in terms of additional to that which would be included in the pricing decision at origination • Forward looking, taking account of macro-economic factors at regional or sectoral level • Applied consistently across all entities within a group • Simple notch downgrade approach is unlikely to be sufficiently granular Stage 2 indicators
  • 14. Copyright©2016NexxConsultants Addressing the challenges of IFRS 9 14 Cost challenge Methodology challenge Model challenge • Cost to develop o Cost to develop varies and is a function of scale of the effort • Cost of doing business o Product managers need to ensure that products are either redesigned and/or repriced to remain viable post IFRS 9 • Capital impact o The potential increase in P&L volatility requires Treasury to manage capital and liquidity dynamically • Governance and Disclosure o Programme Sponsor (typically the CFO) will need to explain the strategic impacts of IFRS 9 to the Board o Need for further detailed disclosure in order for investors to understand the P&L volatility • Transfer criteria o On what basis are the loans transferred from Stage 1 to Stage 2 o Develop policy documents, i.e., impairment, write-down, write- off and downgrades • Methodology design o Understand data requirements and its availability before designing IFRS 9 model approach o Have development plan in place and maintain the audit trail o Engage internal stakeholders from the beginning, e.g., compliance, internal audit • Undertake test runs and document methodology • System integration • Definition of default o Apply standard default definition across the board, i.e., 90 DPD • Data challenge: Identify and benchmark data requirements for IFRS 9 model • Methodology design a function of data and portfolio make up • Key model development criteria: o Risk parameters and their compliance with IFRS 9 requirements o Segmentation and forward looking criteria • Each modelling approach has its pros and cons o Examples: top-down, bottom- up or hybrid o All things being equal, more granular approaches are beneficial
  • 15. Copyright©2016NexxConsultants Content 15 Introduction1 2 IFRS 9 impact 3 Modelling overview 4 Modelling approach 5 Data challenges 6 Our assistance themes 7 Our credentials 8 Why Nexx
  • 16. Copyright©2016NexxConsultants IFRS 9 model development value chain 16 • On-balance sheet taxonomy o Committed vs. demand facilities o Revolvers: Drawn vs. undrawn • Off-balance sheet: o Credit conversion of off-balance sheet facilities • Data requirements • Understanding of available data • Identification of data sources • Data extraction and cleaning • Data transformation • Model build • Testing • Prototyping and discussion of results • Portfolios and sub-portfolios of banking book o Retail, corporate, small-medium enterprises • Develop impairment criteria • Understanding of modelling approach options • Design dimensions and pros and cons relative to data and system architecture • Pilot run • Use test • Validation • Reporting • Talking points and stakeholder packs • Implications for business and functions, including, CEO, CFO, CRO, Compliance, IT and Systems, and Internal Audit Taxonomy Risk parameters data Model build Use-test and validation ImplicationsSegmentation Methodology design
  • 17. Copyright©2016NexxConsultants IFRS 9 FAQs I/II Question Explanation  What is IFRS 9?  IFRS 9 is designed to provide a more principle-based and less complex approach to financial assets classification, a forward- looking impairment model, and better linkage between accounting and risk management for hedge accounting  What are the key changes?  The impairment model introduced by IFRS 9 may represent the most significant shift in accounting since the last financial crisis. This model will have consequences for bank’s financial statements and regulatory capital, and will result in greater provisions and earlier recognition of credit losses. It is also expected to have a substantial impact on the volatility of the profit and loss (P&L) statement  What is the expected impact?  Overall, the International Accounting Standard Board (“IASB”) fieldwork results have revealed that the transitional impact of IFRS 9 on impairments will range from 20% – 250%, with stressed impairments up to 400%. SME portfolios are expected to increase in the range of 0% – 50%. It is expected that IFRS 9 will increase overall loan loss provisions by at least 30%  What are the key implementation requirements?  Transitioning to the new standard is a monumental task. Implementation – now occurring at most large institutions – requires considerable systemic and process change, increased portfolio segmentation, new types of data, and potentially, the need to integrate credit risk management and accounting systems. 17
  • 18. Copyright©2016NexxConsultants Question Explanation  When can I start and what are the first few things that I need to do?  Start as soon as possible. Major steps that need to be taken are: Choice of implementation approach, data and system design and architecture and disclosure. Depending on the complexity of a financial institution, the estimated time to complete IFRS 9 implementation is 6 – 22 months delivered by a team of 2 – 3 FTE’s.  My bank reports capital using standardized approach and we do not have granular PD data, do I still need to report results using IFRS 9?  For Standardized Approach banks, any impairment loss on a loan based on income statements has a direct impact on Core Tier 1 capital, as it reduces retained earnings.  Increased non-collective provision stock upon IFRS 9 transition would reduce the Core Tier 1 capital, but if classified as ‘collective impairment’, the cumulative provisions could be eligible as Tier 2 capital (up to 1.25% of risk weighted assets)  IFRS 9 provisioning may also lead to more expensive loan growth  What are the expected implementation costs?  Implementation costs are material. Implementation – now taking place at most large institutions – requires changes to systems and processes, greater segmentation of portfolios, new types of data and potentially, and integration of credit risk management systems with accounting systems. Moreover, regulatory planning should be taken into account – for example, impact on regulatory ratios, etc. 18 IFRS 9 FAQs II/II
  • 19. Copyright©2016NexxConsultants Content 19 Introduction1 2 IFRS 9 impact 3 Modelling overview 4 Modelling approach 5 Data challenges 6 Our assistance themes 7 Our credentials 8 Why Nexx
  • 20. Copyright©2016NexxConsultants Building blocks of model-development Consider developing a principles-based approach 20 • Principle One: Leveraging of the current structure o Accounting should not change the risk management and monitoring practices, but be a tool with which to improve them. Key steps:  Conduct modelling and impact studies, and commence work on the tool design and calibration of calculators  Leverage its existing processes to manage the interplay between accounting, regulatory and risk management processes • Principle Two: Simplicity o Avoid ‘black box’ effects, develop prototypes and customize solutions as opposed to adopting a full automated framework. Develop a robust, auditable process from inception and an understanding of the provision variations • Principle Three: Proportionality o Use the concepts of materiality and proportionality to ensure that the impairment framework is properly communicated and the implementation proceeds as expected. For the most significant entities in terms of exposure or credit risk, a ‘referenced’ method is used. A simplified approach for less significant entities is considered where there is less data available • Principle Four: Comparability o Comparability and benchmarking with peers plays an important role
  • 21. Copyright©2016NexxConsultants Content 21 Introduction1 2 IFRS 9 impact 3 Modelling overview 4 Modelling approach 5 Data challenges 6 Our assistance themes 7 Our credentials 8 Why Nexx
  • 22. Copyright©2016NexxConsultants Overall approach Data Gathering Final Provisions Interpretation of Results • Comparison of provisions under each approach • Appropriate balance between accounting and regulatory concerns Initial Model Building Model Refinement Stage 2 • Establishment of general framework • Initial assumptions • Model development • Comparison of Lifetime EL • Refinement of assumptions o Discount rate o Recovery Rate o Time to recovery o ….. Initial Model Building Model Refinement Stage 1 • Establishment of general framework • Comparison of Lifetime EL • Refinement of assumptions o PIT PD o PIT LGD o Other parameters • Multiple scenarios • Final estimate of appropriate provisions year over year • Draft commentary about provisioning levels for annual report 22
  • 23. Copyright©2016NexxConsultants Developing term structure of PDs An overview of our approaches Markovian approach • Term structure for default probabilities can be created using the empirical data on transition matrices • PDs are based upon raw migration data, the resulting matrices may not be well behaved. For a matrix to be well-behaved, one would like to see a no-crossing property between ratings. This property requires that PDs increase monotonically as credit quality worsens. For example, the 9 and 10 year cumulative PDs for an AA obligor should be higher than that of an AAA obligor. Moreover, there may be very little empirical information on defaults for high quality obligors, i.e. AAA and AA rated obligors Loss distribution • Understanding the full loss distribution beyond EL requires the modelling of correlations and concentrations in the portfolio • Key questions: o How do we aggregate credit risk from that of a single borrower to capture the entire portfolio? o Should we hold provisions only for potential losses from deterioration in individual credits or also from deterioration in the economic value of the portfolio? (e.g. through rating migration) Merton’s model • Merton’s model measures “distance for default” as a function of systemic and idiosyncratic factors • Views GDP & equity measures as asset-value proxies o Derive macro DDs (‘Default-Distance’) as ratios of leverage to historical, leverage volatility o Convert macro DDs to macro Zs (by normalising mean & variance) o Enter industry-region Zs into the PD, LGD, and EAD models and derive conditional losses 23
  • 24. Copyright©2016NexxConsultants Content 24 Introduction1 2 IFRS 9 impact 3 Modelling overview 4 Modelling approach 5 Data challenges 6 Our assistance themes 7 Our credentials 8 Why Nexx
  • 25. Copyright©2016NexxConsultants Customized approaches for each banking cohort 25 Approach options IRB accredited banks IRB ready (or in progress) but not accredited Standardized approach banks Bottom-up approach • Granular approach using PIT calibration • Risk neutral or market implied term structure of PDs using forward looking approach for Lifetime ELs Hybrid approach • Identify access to data for bottom-up and develop work plan to develop bottom-up approach for the remaining portfolio, i.e., where top-down approach is used Top down approach • Top-down portfolio level approach to determine PIT PD’s using cycle- adjustment factor • Use Merton’s risk-neutral approach for term structure of PDs for Lifetime ELs
  • 26. Copyright©2016NexxConsultants Content 26 Introduction1 2 IFRS 9 impact 3 Modelling overview 4 Modelling approach 5 Data challenges 6 Our assistance themes 7 Our credentials 8 Why Nexx
  • 27. Copyright©2016NexxConsultants Gap analysis IFRS 9 adoption timeline: January 2018 Key next steps 27 Data feeds architecture Data current state Data extraction Data cleaning Data logic PolicyStrategic System architecture Functional alignment Business alignment Approach design Risk parameters current state Portfolio alignment Model design Model development Process design Reporting and governance Reporting architecture Reporting sign- off Hedge accounting
  • 28. Copyright©2016NexxConsultants Content 28 Introduction1 2 IFRS 9 impact 3 Modelling overview 4 Modelling approach 5 Data challenges 6 Our assistance themes 7 Our credentials 8 Why Nexx
  • 29. Copyright©2016NexxConsultants Nexx’s team has been at the forefront of early developments of provisioning models – assisting central banks and auditing firms 29 Dynamic provisioning has been championed by Spanish officials and by banking regulators elsewhere as a counter-cyclical alternative to the status quo Banco de España, Spain‟s central bank and its banking supervisor, put dynamic provisions into place in July 2000, to cope with a sharp increase in credit risk on Spanish banks‟ statements of financial position following a period of significant credit growth Other countries that have been using dynamic provisioning well before IFRS 9 are Oman, Peru, Columbia and Uruguay “Dynamic Provisioning is a macro-prudential tool to enhance bank soundness and to help mitigate part of the procyclicality of the banking system” - Jesús Saurina (Head of Financial Stability Department of the Banco de España)
  • 30. Copyright©2016NexxConsultants Over the last few years, Nexx’s team developed several provisioning models OW Credentials • Lead modelling design and developments for HSBC and Barclays • Valuation of credit linked notes • Models approved and accredited by FSA/PRA and local regulators o Conducted workshops for Central Banks • Well known participant in F&R forums and conferences • Multiple publications and reports on capital management • Coordinated multiple surveys/self-assessment amongst leading institutions on capital measurement and management Credentials 30
  • 31. Copyright©2016NexxConsultants Moody’s validation of the PIT provisioning model • Moody’s compared HSBC’s provisioning model with its flagship Risk Frontier, and assigned a satisfactory rating • Not less than 75% in any test category 31
  • 32. Copyright©2016NexxConsultants Content 32 Introduction1 2 IFRS 9 impact 3 Modelling overview 4 Modelling approach 5 Data challenges 6 Our assistance themes 7 Our credentials 8 Why Nexx
  • 33. Copyright©2016NexxConsultants 33 Why Nexx Consultants Engagement model We offer three permutations of engagement model: • Content • Consulting • Training Risk and inter-domain expertise We are risk experts. We focus on risk and its intersection with other domains. We assist clients improve the models, tools, and processes to manage risk Delivery track record Nexx Consultants are experts in the delivery of large scale and complex risk programmes. Our deliverables have been independently validated and accredited by regulators across the world Knowledge transfer Our engagements are designed to upskill client capabilities. Our collaborative approach allows division of labor based on specialist model Consulting team experience Each member of our team brings a unique perspective - backed by an average of 10 years relevant industry experience gained at the world's leading Financial Institutions and consulting firms We deliver solutions tailored to our clients profiles Why Nexx Consultants?
  • 34. Copyright©2016NexxConsultants Project Areas Example Deliverables Credit risk Credit rating Scorecards development across various asset classes Loss parameters estimation PD, LGD, EAD models development, calibration and master scale development Validation Powerstats, K-S, Gini, AUC Pricing Risk adjusted return on capital (transaction and portfolio) Credit portfolio Loss distribution/parameter estimation/Credit Portfolio Management Provisioning IFRS 9, Dynamic provisioning fund Market risk Securities Portfolio optimization, Performance attribution, Expected Shortfall and VaR Financial instruments Valuation, development and implementation of interest rate libraries Liquidity risk ALM Interest rate risk in banking book Cost of funds Transfer pricing/yield curve development Balance sheet Behavioral risk analysis of deposits Operational risk Measurement Loss distribution, scenario-based capitalization of operational risk Management Risk Control Self-Assessment (RCSA), Key Risk Indicators’ attribution Non-financial risks Value drivers Risk appetite design and implementation Capital management Planning and budgeting Integrated planning, forecasting Regulatory Pillar 1, Pillar 2, Capital buffer management Economic capital Stress testing, Economic capital modelling An illustration of our risk-related activities 34References available1 1
  • 35. Copyright©2016NexxConsultants Sohail Farooq, Co-founder 18+ years as risk practitioner Specialties: Risk measurement, dynamic provisioning, capitalization and stress testing Education: MQF, MBA Nexx’s senior team Micheal Bi, Co-founder 20+ years regulatory and industry experience Specialties: Design and implementation of risk applications and systems Education: Ph.D. System Design Engineering 35 Dr. Michel Crouhy, Subject-matter expert 25+ years as risk practitioner Specialties: Validation, stress testing, including CCAR, DFAST Education: PhD Finance, Doctoris Honoris Causa
  • 36. Copyright©2016NexxConsultants Benefits 36 Continuity of brand, not of expertise Knowledge transfer and upskilling • Our niche focus is built upon our pool of highly specialized staff. This ensures that: o There is true client-consultant continuity at a resource level o We establish a thorough understanding of the specific business needs, as well as the unique market, organizational and economic reality each client faces o This understanding is maintained throughout a given project and subsequent to the conclusion of our work because we continue to provide advice and perspectives on certain topics and market developments to our clients Fixed price business model • Knowledge transfer is fundamental to the success of our projects. • We make knowledge transfer “business as usual” so that we can deliver tangible and sustained business value • Individual engagements are designed on the basis of o “Appropriateness of fit” within the organization o Building capabilities within our clients that outlast Nexx’s involvement on the project • Our teams work closely with client counterparts to promote the exchange of knowledge • Our business model typically operates on a fixed price contract basis, which ensures that there is budget certainty without extension risk to the client • We truly partner with our clients to share the project risks, adopting a “we are in the same boat” mentality.
  • 37. Copyright©2016NexxConsultants Disclaimer Nexx Consultants is incorporated under the Laws of Province of Ontario in Canada, Corporation No: 002369533. The information, data and approaches provided herein are an outcome of our research and content expertise. Although we may refer to third party materials and/or analyze their impact, the content is the outcome of Nexx's proprietary knowledge and is rightfully owned by us. This work is copyright protected and legally privileged. Please do not distribute this presentation without the prior written consent of Nexx or its authorized affiliates. Nexx has made best efforts to ensure that this material is complete in its entirety. However, we do not warrant its completeness, accuracy, usefulness or satisfaction with all requirements. Copyright © 2016 Nexx Consultants Thank You