An update by Utah economist John Matthews on the economy in northern Utah

1. An Economic Update U.S., Utah, Box Elder, Cache and Rich Counties Society for Human Resource Management, Bridgerland Chapter February 19, 2009

4. Utah Components of Population Change Source: Utah Population Estimates Committee

5. Utah State Employment Growth Rates 1950 – 2010f 1960 1970 1980 1990 1950 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: January 2009 f = forecast 2000 3.3% average since 1960 2010

6. Year-Over Percent Change In Non-farm Jobs 05 Utah U.S. Dec. 2008

7. Utah Unemployment Rate 1973 – 2008 Percent Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: January 2009

8. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Utah 1986 – 2009 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: January 2009 86 90 00 09

9. Utah Employment Change 1976 – 2010 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: January 2009 22 Months 8 Months 8 Months 18 Months September 2010

10. Natural Resources Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activities Education and Health Government Utah Nonfarm Industry Profile (Numeric Change) 2008 – 2009 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services Prof., and Business Leisure and Hospitality Other Services

11. Here in Box Elder, Cache, & Rich Counties

12. Population

13. Box Elder Cache Source: Governor’s Office of Planning & Budget, Demographic & Economic Analysis Section September 2008. 2000-2008 Annual Growth Rate Box Elder 2.0% Cache 3.1% Rich 2.4%

14. Employment

15. Box Elder Cache Source: Utah Dept. Workforce Services, Workforce Information February 2009. New Jobs Growth Rate 2006-2007 Box Elder = 4.6% Cache = 3.8% Rich = 5.2%

16. Box Elder County Employment 00 01 02 03 99 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: September 2008 04 06 05 07 08

17. Box Elder County Employment Growth Rates 00 01 02 03 99 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: September 2008 04 05 06 07 08

18. Box Elder County Year-Over Manufacturing Employment Growth Rates 2006-2008 *2008 third quarter data is preliminary. Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: Feb. 2009 40% of all jobs in Box Elder County are in Manufacturing

19. Cache County Employment 00 01 02 03 99 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: September 2008 04 05 06 07 08

20. Cache County Employment Growth Rates 00 01 02 03 99 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: September 2008 04 05 06 07 08

21. Cache County Year-Over Manufacturing Employment Growth Rates 2006-2008 *2008 third quarter data is preliminary. Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: Feb. 2009 21% of all jobs in Cache County are in Manufacturing

22. Rich County Employment 00 01 02 03 99 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: September 2008 04 05 06 07 08

23. Rich County Employment Growth Rates 00 01 02 03 99 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: September 2008 04 05 06 07 08

24. Unemployment

26. Bear River Counties Initial Unemployment Claims Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah.

27. $$$$ Wages $$$$

28. 2007 Average Monthly Wage by County Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.

29. % Change in Average Monthly Wage 2006-2007 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.

31. Bear River’s County Average Monthly Wage, 2007 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services. Average Wage Box Elder $3,375 Cache $2,250 Rich $1,899

32. Construction

33. Bear River Counties Construction Dwelling Permits Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah.

34. Bear River Counties Construction Permit Values (Millions of $) Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah.

35. Bear River Construction Activity Change Jan-Sept 2007 to Jan-Sept 2008 Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah. Dwelling Permits Total Const.Valuation

36. Outlook

37. Jobs State Outlook Continued slowing to 0.2% in 2008 and going negative –2.3% in 2009. Growth around –0.4% in 2010. Box Elder Sliding to 0.0 % job growth in 2008. Slipping to -2.0% to –2.5 in 2009. Manufacturing the key. Cache Job growth of 1.5 to 2.0% for 2008. Growth negative in 2009 at about –1.0% to –2.0% in 2009. Manufacturing job losses may continue. Rich Very slow growth, if any. Watch Construction.

38. Unemployment Increasing in all counties. Box Elder unemployment at 4.0% to 5.0% in 2009 Cache joblessness in the 3.5% to 4.5% range in 2009 Rich unemployment 2.0% to 3.0% in 2009 Wages – upward pressure subsiding as economy slows. Spending Slow and cautious. As soon as consumers “perceive” better times they will spend. Issues of income growth, job security, and inflation (energy prices).

39. The Sun will come up tomorrow. We will get through this but it will take time. This recession is like no other in our history. Don’t panic, be flexible. Businesses find new ways of dealing with the economic environment, out of the box.