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July/August 2009




                        Perspectives on Utah’s Economy




              Evaluating Utah's
                      Economy
              A MidSEASon ChECk-up
                                               Ready
                     And Willing to Work—
                                 need a Job

                         profligAtE
                           SpEndErS
                        to prudEnt
                             SAvErS?

The
ECONOMY:                      PLUS:
What Can We   Elevate your vacation with a
Expect?       "Staycation" this summer
                        Department of Workforce Services
Trendlines

                                        Trendlines
                                                                                       Utah Department of Workforce Services
                        is published every other month by the
                       Utah Department of Workforce Services,                                   Executive Director
                      Workforce Development and Information                                           Kristen Cox
                         Division. To read, download, or print
                        this publication (free), see our Internet                         Workforce Development and
                                                                                                 Information
                         site: http://jobs.utah.gov/wi. Click on
                                                                                                Stephen Maas, Director
                     “Publications” then select the one you want
                                                                                             Stacey Joos, Assistant Director
                                       from the list.

                       To obtain additional printed copies or to                                    Contributors
                                                                                                      Mark Knold
                            subscribe to Trendlines contact:
                                                                                                     John Mathews
                           Department of Workforce Services                                         Austin Sargent
                                       Attn: WDID                                                     Jim Robson
                                   140 East 300 South                                               Lecia Langston
                                Salt Lake City, UT 84111                                        Linda Marling Church
                                                                                                   Kimberley Bartel
                                                                                                    Clayton Scrivner
                              Telephone: (801) 526-9462
                                                                                                    Juliette Tennert
                                   Fax: (801) 526-9238
                           Email: wipublications@utah.gov                                          Coordination
                                                                                                     Connie Blaine

                           The Workforce Development and
                                                                                                      Designer
                       Information Division generates accurate,
                                                                                                      Pat Swenson
                         timely, and understandable data and
                        analyses to provide knowledge of ever-
                        changing workforce environments that
                              support sound planning and
                                    decision-making.



                                                                                       jobs.utah.gov

                                       DWS-03-44-0709
                           Equal Opportunity Employer/Program
          Auxiliary aids and services are available upon request to individuals with
              disabilities by calling (801) 526-9240. Individuals with speech
            and/or hearing impairments may call the Relay Utah by dialing 711.
                            Spanish Relay Utah: 1-888-346-3162.


2 July/August 2009
July/August 2009




                                                                                 contents
                              Perspectives on Utah’s Economy




                     Evaluating Utah's
                             Economy
                     A MIDSEASON CHECK-UP
                                                      Ready
                            And Willing to Work—
                                        Need a Job
                                                                            The Economy: What Can We Expect?
                                  PROFLIGATE
                                    SPENDERS
                                                                     4                       Wasatch Front and Statewide
                                 TO PRUDENT
                                      SAVERS?
                                                                             American Recovery & Reinvestment
       The
       ECONOMY:
       What Can We
                                        PLUS:
                      Elevate your vacation with a
                      "Staycation" this summer
                                                                     6                           Act Summary
       Expect?
                                  Department of Workforce Services
                                                                                                            The Outlook

                                                                              Profiling Job Losses Through Initial
   Evaluating                                                         8                   Unemployment Claims
                                                                                                         Economic News

Utah's Economy:                                                             The Changing Face of Manufacturing
                                                                     11
  A Midseason                                                                                           Economic Insight

                                                                                        The Resume: Your Ticket
   Check-up                                                          12                       to a Job Interview
                                                                                                            Insider News

                                                                          Ready and Willing to Work—Need a Job
                                                                     14                               What's Happening


                                                                           Profligate Spenders to Prudent Savers?
                                                                     16                                   National News

                                                                                            Washington County:
                                                                     18                     From Boom to Bust?
                                  pg. 14                                                                   The Outskirts

                                                                                                         Economist
                                                                     20                                     Occupations

                                                                               Elevate Your Vacation Value with a
                                                                     22                 "Staycation" This Summer
                                                                                                              Our Guest

                                                                                                      Juab County
                                                                     24                                 County Highlight


                                                                                                    Just the Facts...
                                                                     27                                     Rate Update
                              pg. 16


jobs.utah.gov/wi                                                                                               Trendlines   3
wasatch front and statewide | by mark knold, chief economist




              ThE Economy:
              What can We Expect?




4 July/August 2009
U
          tah is deep into an economic
          downturn. Employment losses
          are adding up, and the inflow
into the unemployment ranks is only
slightly abating. Initial unemployment
claim levels are dropping but still
remain high enough to contribute to
more bad economic numbers going
forward. It appears that the economy
is still trying to right itself, and there is
more negative news yet to absorb.

But there is also the feeling nationwide
that the worst of this economic
downturn is behind us—that the


                                                          Our economy will
economic free-fall that pervaded most
of the winter is giving way to a feeling
that we are somewhat getting our
arms around this thing. Stabilizing the
financial markets is the key to it all,
and most of that sector’s bad news has
come and gone. There may be a few
                                                          recover alongside
more dominoes yet to fall, but most of
the falling has occurred.

If this is a proper assessment, we need
                                                             the national
to start thinking about when is the first
chance to turn the economic corner.
The momentum into the summer
months is largely occurring as we
                                                         economic recovery.
speak, so there isn’t much hope for it
being this summer. The late fall and
early winter hold more promise.

Although the job losses should stabilize
by then, and may even start to rebound,         Did You Know...
a rapid recovery is not in the works.
The financial sector was too severely
                                                • Utah business executives are feeling more optimistic about their
battered to consider it fixed and ready
                                                  companies’ financial futures. http://www.deseretnews.com/
to open for business again. That sector’s
                                                  article/705306588/Zions-executive-survey-takes-a-turn-toward-
transition back into its traditional and
                                                  optimism.html.
important role will be much slower
than we would like.                             • Investors from around the country as well as in Utah invested in
                                                   Utah businesses more frequently in 2008 than in 2007. http://
Utah’s economy will recover alongside
                                                   www.deseretnews.com/article/705305783/Investment-deals-grew-
the national economic recovery.
                                                   in-08-for-Utah-firms.html.
Historically, Utah rebounds quickly and
shows much swifter progress than the            • The Interior Department will invest $118.7 million in Utah from
national economy. That pattern may                the Obama administration’s federal stimulus pot. http://www.
not hold this time, at least not initially,       sltrib.com/news/ci_12360805.
as Utah’s lagging housing market could
be the factor that keeps Utah’s recovery
moderate.



jobs.utah.gov/wi                                                                                               Trendlines   5
the outlook | by juliette tennert, demographic & economic analysis, governor's office of




                               American
  I
                                Recovery


      n February 2009, the American
      Recovery and Reinvestment Act
      (ARRA) was enacted by Congress and
  signed into law by the President. The
                                             &              Reinvestment Act Summary
                                             About half of Utah’s ARRA funding
                                             is for the fiscal stabilization of state
                                             programs. Utah is receiving $390
                                             million to mitigate budget shortfalls
                                                                                        fiscal stabilization, the ARRA provides
                                                                                        for approximately $385 million in
                                                                                        infrastructure investments and $420
                                                                                        million for public services in Utah.
  ARRA provides for almost $790 billion      in public and higher education,
  in federal tax reductions and increased    and approximately $280 million in          The President’s Council of Economic
  federal spending aimed at accelerating     increased funding for Medicaid to          Advisors estimates that the provisions
  the nation’s economic recovery.            maintain healthcare services and to        of ARRA will create or preserve over
                                             reduce general revenue support for the     3.6 million jobs nationally and ap-
  Tax relief accounts for approximately      program which, in turn, can be used to     proximately 32,000 jobs in Utah. Ex-
  $300 billion of the total ARRA package.    stabilize other budget shortfalls.         penditures and resulting economic ef-
  Major individual tax provisions include                                               fects will be closely monitored over the
  the $8,000 First-Time Homebuyer            The Governor was also given discretion     coming months and years at recovery.
  Credit and Making Work Pay Credit, a       over about $90 million in “general         gov and recovery.utah.gov.
  refundable tax credit of 6.2% of earned    stabilization funding.” This has been
  income up to $400 for individuals
  and $800 for married taxpayers. The
                                             directed toward uses aimed at creating
                                             jobs,      reducing    unemployment,          Utah is expected to
                                                                                           receive more than
  remaining $490 billion authorized by       stabilizing and improving Utah’s
  ARRA is directed towards additional        economy, and averting the need to raise
  funding for federal programs like          taxes, such as investments in the Home
  Medicaid and Temporary Assistance
  For Needy Families, infrastructure
                                             Run housing grant program and the
                                             Utah Science Technology and Research
                                                                                              $2 billion in tax
  (includes highway improvements and
  modernization of the electric grid), and
                                             Initiative (USTAR). In addition to
                                                                                                         relief.
  aid to state and local governments.

  It is anticipated that Utah will receive
  approximately $1.6 billion in formulary
  funding through ARRA and even more
  through competitive grants.        Utah
  families and businesses are expected to
  experience more than an estimated $2
  billion in tax relief.




6 July/August 2009
planning and budget



                  Education                           Utah Employment: Gender By Industry 2007million
                                                                                    $390
Stabilization

                  Medicaid                                                      $280
                               $90          General Purpose                                               Utah ARRA Allocations

                  Transportation                                              $270
Infrastructure




                   Energy                $70
                  Water       $40
                  $5 Community Development                                                   It is estimated that
                  Education                           $190                                  these provisions will
                                                                                          create or preserve over
                  Labor                     $140                                          3.6 million jobs, 32,000
Services




                          $70 Health & Human Services                                      of which are in Utah.

                 $20 Law Enforcement
             Source: Recovery.utah.gov
                                                      Other
                                                Energy 1%
                                                 5%

                                           Education
                                         & Training 7%                     Tax Relief
                                                                             38%
                                            Healthcare                                                         United States
                                               7%                                                          Distribution of ARRA
                                                                                                                  Funds

                                                                        State & Local
                               Protecting the                           Fiscal Relief
                                Vulnerable               Infrastructure     18%
                                    10%                    & Science
                                                              14%                  Source: Recovery.gov



     jobs.utah.gov/wi                                                                                                      Trendlines   7
economic news | by mark knold, chief economist

                                                                                                                                                                                                   1,001 t
                                                                     Box Elder
                                                                                                                      Cache                                                                        501 to


                                                                                                                                                                          Rich                     251 to
                                                                                                                      Weber
                                                                                                                                                                                                   1 to 25
                                                                                                                      Morgan
                                                                                                        Davis
                                                                                                                                                                                               Summit

                Initial Unemployment Claims
                                                                                                        Salt Lake
                         by Zip Code                                                                                                                                     Wasatch
                      January—April 2009
                                                                    Tooele
                                  Box Elder
                                                                                   1,001 to 2,000                                                                                              Duchesne
                                                        Cache                      501 to 1,000
                                                                                                                                                          Utah
                                                                   Rich            251 to 500
                                                        Weber
                                                                                   1 to 250
                                                        Morgan                 Juab
                                                Davis
                                                                                Summit
                                                                                                            Daggett                                                                                  Ca

                                                Salt Lake
                                                                   Millard
                                                                Wasatch
                                 Tooele

                                                            Utah
                                                                                Duchesne
                                                                                                         Uintah       Sanpete
                                                                                                                                                                           1,001 to 2,000
                                                         Box Elder
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Emery
                                       Juab                                                         Cache                                                                  501 to 1,000
                                                                                      Carbon


                                                                                                               Rich                                                        251 to 500
                                 Millard
                                                                                                    Weber
                                                        Sanpete
                                                                                                            Sevier                                                         1 to 250
                                                                                  Emery
                                                                                                        Grand
                                                                                                    Morgan
                                                                                                                                                                          White space assumes
                                                                                     Davis                                                                                missing zip code data.
                                                       Beaver                                                                                                                                       Dagg
                                                                                                                        Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services




                                                  Sevier                                                                                                                Summit
                                                                                                      Piute
                                                                                                                                                                                          Wayne
                         Beaver
                                               Piute
                                                                           Wayne
                                                                                     Salt Lake
                          Iron                          Iron                                                Wasatch
                                                                    Garfield
                                                                                                                                                                           Garfield
                                                        Tooele
                                                                                                                                                                        Duchesne
                                                                                                      Utah
                                                                                                      San Juan                                                                                     Uintah
                     Washington
                                                       Kane



                                              Washington
                                                       Juab
                                                                                                                  Kane                                                       Carbon


                                                       Millard
8 July/August 2009
                                                                                                  Sanpete
Profiling Job Losses Through Initial
Unemployment Claims
 Certain truisms are visible in Utah's claims profiling, one of which
 is that people with higher levels of education make more money than
 those with less and also have lower rates of unemployment.




 E
       conomists monitor economic         claims were still running high in       more reticent about laying them
       variables as part of their         Utah. Compared against the same         off.
       analysis of the economy’s          time period of the prior year, claims
 performance. One current and             are three times higher this year.       These truisms are visible in Utah’s
 quickly measureable variable is          This isn’t a surprise considering       unemployment claims profiling.
 weekly     initial   unemployment        that the state and nation are in a      Utah’s      initial   unemployment
 insurance claims. This is an             severe economic downturn. Yet it        claims have been high this year,
 accounting of people who have            signals that the employment losses      so it offers ample information for
 recently lost a job and filed for        associated with this downturn are       observation. Nearly three-quarters
 unemployment benefits during a           not yet giving an indication of         of all initial claimants had 13 years
 week. These claims can be quantified     easing off.                             of education or less (a high school
 and summarized as rapidly as the                                                 diploma would represent 12 years of
 following week. This quick profile       Initial unemployment claims also        education). Those with a bachelor’s
 makes      initial   unemployment        offer a profile of those filing for     degree or higher accounted for only
 claims one of the more leading of        unemployment relief. There are          12 percent of unemployment claims
 all economic variables. It is also       certain truisms within economic         filed.
 a good measure of how the future         labor market observations. One is
 employment variables may play            that people with higher levels of       A map of Utah by zip code areas
 out, as a rapid increase in claims       education make more money than          (the lowest level of claims data
 portends significant job losses in the   those with less (generally speaking;    available) and populated with the
 upcoming month’s employment              individual results my vary). Going      number of initial claimants since
 counts.                                  hand-in-hand with this is that those    the beginning of the year show a
                                          with more education also have low-      few “hot spots”—some a surprise,
 Utah’s initial claims made a             er rates of unemployment. Their         some not. Areas in West Valley
 noticeable   movement      upward        obtained skills and knowledge are       City, northwest Davis County, and
 beginning in November 2008. As           more in demand and more costly          northwest Weber County are some
 of May 2009, initial unemployment        to replace, therefore employers are     of the non-surprise areas. Why? The

                                                                                                      continued on next page




jobs.utah.gov/wi                                                                                                       Trendlines   9
economic news | by mark knold, chief economist


                           continued from previous page

                                Census reveals that these are areas           job growth numbers for that county
                                with lower per-household income               (the most recent data available), job
                                measurements.                                 growth was around 10 percent. That
                                                                              was energy-driven growth (oil and
                                If income corresponds with education          gas). The high claims activity since
                                levels, which inversely corresponds           January suggests that the energy
                                with unemployment activity, then              industry’s fortunes out there may
          Two surprise “hot     one would expect claims activity to           have turned on a dime. That theory
          spots” are Vernal,    be higher in these areas.                     matches with the flip in energy prices,
                                                                              and other anecdotal data surrounding
         and eastern Tooele     Another area of non-surprise is St.           the energy industry.
                                George. Because of overbuilding and
          County—but they       overpricing of housing in that area,          Initial claims in Tooele County are
         both have probable     it is Utah’s economically hardest-hit         probably a demographic (and there-
                                                                              fore an income) issue. There was
                                area. Therefore, it is not a surprise
                   answers.     that claims are high there. As recently       a wave in the late 1990s and early
                                as two or three years ago it would            2000s of Salt Lake-based people go-
                                have been a complete shock to see             ing to Tooele County to build an
                                that number of claims there, given            affordable home. These commuters
                                Washington County’s seemingly                 were young and of lower income.
                                perpetual boom economy, but not               Therefore, when it comes time for
                                now.                                          layoffs, we have highlighted the vul-
                                                                              nerability of lower incomes. We also
                                Two surprise “hot spots” are Vernal,          need to highlight the vulnerability of
                                and eastern Tooele County—but they            age. If layoffs are based upon senior-
                                both have probable answers. Vernal            ity (as oftentimes they are), then the
                                has had high claims in its past, so           younger workers lose their jobs first.
                                that’s not the surprise. The surprise is      That would impact that part of Tooele
                                that when looking at the December             County.



                      Utah Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
                                                 January 2008 – May 2009




                                                                           Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services




10 July/August 2009
economic insight | by john mathews, economist



                                                                           The Changing Face of
                                                                           Manufacturing
                                                                            Utah. For example, way back in 1960 over 28 percent of to-
                                                                            tal jobs in our nation were in manufacturing. Today (2008),
                                                                            that figure is 9.8 percent. In Utah back in 1960—baby boom-
                                                                            ers were still being born—that percent was 17.8. It’s not that
                                                                            manufacturing has actually declined but it hasn’t grown as
                                                                            quickly as the other major industry sectors. Manufacturing
                                                                            has had its ups and downs through a number of recessions
                                                                            but it has always rebounded.

                                                                            Many manufacturing jobs have been outsourced, leaving
                                                                            the country because businesses in a capitalistic system make
                                                                            choices to produce products where they can maximize rev-



  M
            anufacturing is the industry that makes things.                 enue and minimize costs. Where a product is made is the
            This major industry sector is an economic driver                choice of a company, and those decisions are based on the
            for the economy because the output is typically                 profit motive. The U. S. remains the strongest economy in
  exported, which generates revenue coming into the state.                  the world because we perform by doing what we do best. It’s
  That’s a good thing. This sector pays well above the average              called comparative advantage.
  wage, which is also a good thing. All this is positive, but
  there are also some not-so-positive aspects of manufactur-
  ing. Being an export-based industry exposes it to the vaga-               Utah’s Manufacturing Industry
  ries of ups and downs in the larger regional, national, and               Taking a more current look at the industry, say from 1992 to
  world markets. Still, the risk is acceptable because of all the           2008, provides some interesting insights. Over the 16-year
  positives about manufacturing.                                            period, Utah’s total economy has grown at a 3.9-percent per
                                                                            year pace. Manufacturing has grown at a 1.4-percent annual
  The industry as a whole is changing. Its employment posi-                 rate. Over 23,000 new manufacturing jobs have increased
  tion relative to the other major industry sectors is declin-              employment from 102,500 in 1992 to the current 125,900
  ing. We are in the information-based economy now, not the                 level in 2008. During that period the industry lost jobs (in a
  goods-based one of the last 40 to 50 years. Though its output             year-over comparison) in six of the 16 years.
  is as high as ever, manufacturing jobs as a percent of total
  jobs in the economy, is slipping (technology and automa-                  Manufacturing jobs, as a percent of total jobs in Utah, have
  tion are making up the difference). This is not just unique to            declined. In 1992, about 13.3 percent of all jobs were in man-
                                                                            ufacturing. By 2008 that slice of the pie had slipped to 10.0
14%                                                                         percent. Remember the number of jobs has not dropped,
                             Manufacturing Employment as a                  rather the percent of total jobs has.
                              Percent of Total Jobs in Utah
13%                                   1992-2008                             The good news is manufacturing pays well and always has.
                                                                            The average monthly wage for all industries in 2008 was
                                                                            $3,120. Manufacturing’s average pay was $3,870—24 per-
12%                                                                         cent higher. Over the 1992-2008 period wages increased by
                                                                            4.6 percent per year, both in total and in manufacturing.
11%                                                                         Remember, the content of manufacturing is changing. The
                                                                                             look of manufacturing in 1960 is far dif-
                                                                                             ferent than it is today. The mix of indus-
10%
                                                                                             tries within manufacturing is changing,
                                                                                             responding to forces in the market. It will
 9%                                                                                          continue to be a very important provider
                                                                                             of jobs and revenue for Utah.

 8%                                                                                                  Find more information at: http://jobs.utah.
                                                                                                     gov/opencms/wi/statewide/ifsheets/manu-
                                                                                                     facturing.pdf
 7%
      1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
                                           Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: May 2009

jobs.utah.gov/wi                                                                                                                   Trendlines   11
insider news | by kimberley bartel, manager




  The Resume: Your Ticket to a Job Interview
  Y
         our resume should let the            you want. Make sure the information is       Some of the old resume rules don’t
         employer know as clearly and         accurate and complete.                       apply any more. For example, the
         quickly as possible what you can                                                  length of your resume doesn’t have to
  do for that organization or company.        Next, research resumes. You can find         be limited to just one page—it depends
  It is your primary sales tool to market     helpful information on the Internet.         on your industry and the jobs you are
  yourself to an employer. The main           Look at examples of resumes given            applying for. Every resume doesn’t have
  purpose of your resume is to get an         on Web sites. You can even Google            to have an objective at the top. You
  interview.                                  resumes for specific occupations and         should include an objective only if you
                                              see what other people’s resumes look         think it will help get you an interview.
  If you don’t have a resume, the first       like. There are also templates available     Tailor your resume to meet the specific
  step is to make a list of your education,   on the Web you can use, and some             needs of your targeted industry, job,
  employment history, skills, and             organizations require you to fill in their   employer and company.
  accomplishments that relate to the job      resume templates.




12 July/August 2009
Decide which format you will use for
your resume and target it to the job
                                          format works well for those changing
                                          careers or new graduates. However,          DO:
you are seeking. This means you need      some hiring authorities don’t favor         •Make sure there are no errors or
to update your resume every time          this format because they suspect it is       misspellings
you apply for a different job and use     used to hide something.
language from the job announcement                                                    •Have someone proofread your
when it is appropriate. Targeting your    The Combination format brings                resume
resume is a very powerful method to       together both the Chronological and
set yourself apart from the competition   the Functional resumes. This format         •Make sure you have a version you
and capture the employer’s interest.      begins with a summary of your most           can email or cut and paste
This is a critical step when there are    impressive qualifications, skills, abili-
many people applying for the same         ties and accomplishments. This infor-       •Include your name, mailing
job.                                      mation is followed by an employment          address, telephone number, and
                                          history and education section that           email address
There are basically three main formats    supports the statements made in the
for resumes: Chronological, Function-     top portion.                                •Update your resume for each job
al, and Combination.
                                          It is important to put the most impres-
The Chronological format’s em-            sive information first and make sure it
phasis is placed on a chronological       is perfect because employers only look
listing of employment and employ-
ment-related experience. This is a
                                          at each resume for about 10-15 sec-
                                          onds before they determine whether          DON’T:
good format if you have a consistent      they will interview you. Remember,          •Include hobbies unless they relate
employment history, with no gaps,         your resume is your marketing tool to        to the job
and past employment experiences are       convince the employer you should be
related to your current employment        interviewed for the position!               •Include personal information
goals.                                                                                 about marital status, age, religion,
                                          Check Out:                                   etc.
The Functional format highlights
                                          •www.jobs.utah.gov                          •Put references on your resume,
skills, experience, and accomplish-
ments without identifying specific                                                     have them available on a separate
                                          •http://careers.msn.com/
dates, names, and places. Employment                                                   document
history is de-emphasized by placing it    •http://career-advice.monster.com/
near the bottom of the resume. This        resumes-cover-letters/careers.aspx




jobs.utah.gov/wi                                                                                                Trendlines    13
what's happening | by austin sargent, economist




                 What is the
                   standard
                   definition
                                    Ready
                                       and Willing to Work
                  of someone
                 unemployed?                 —Need a Job
                                          T
                                               he toll of the current recession is seen in the strong rise
                                               in unemployment throughout the nation and in Utah.
                                               While Utah still has a much lower unemployment rate
                                          than many other states, it still has seen a recent increase in
                                          unemployment also.

                                          Still, questions arise about how well the unemployment rate
                                          captures the impact on workers of an economic downturn, or
                                            those desiring to work. The standard definition of someone
                                               unemployed, as used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics
                                                (BLS), is “people who are jobless, looking for jobs and
                                                 available for work.” This definition also assumes some
                                                  effort is being put forward to find work. However, you
                                                   don’t have to look very far to find someone who
                                                     wants to work full-time but is currently only able to
                                                       find part-time work.

                                                       Because of this, BLS has alternative measures of
                                                        labor underutilization. The most comprehensive
                                                         measure is called U-6, and it includes the total
                                                          unemployed, plus all marginally attached
                                                          workers, plus total employed part-time
                                                          for economic reasons. This is sometimes
                                                           mistakenly referred to as the “alternative
                                                           unemployment rate.” But since it includes
                                                            some classifications of working individuals,
                                                           it really measures workers who aren’t able
                                                           to work at full potential, due to economic
                                                          conditions, or labor that is underutilized.




14 July/August 2009
For more information on
 alternative measures of                                    8.8
                                                                                                                                                                                         6.5
 labor underutilization see                                                        7.1
                                                                                                        5.8
                                                                                                                                                                                   6.9          8.9
                                                     10.0                                                                8.2
 the following links:                                                6.1                                5.7                             8.4                                       8.1                 7.3
                                                                                        5.6                                                        12.8
 •http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/                                                                                                                                                                8.2 8.3
                                                                                                        5.7                7.0                                             7.7
  surveymost                                                 7.6
                                                                                                                                                            9.7                            7.4
                                                                           5.0                                                           8.6     7.8
                                                                                          7.3                                                                                              6.4
                                               9.9                                                                                                                9.2
 •http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_                                                                                 7.3               8.3                    9.3
                                                                                                                                                                           6.1                6.3
  htgm.htm#concepts                                                                                                                                                        8.5
                                                                                                                                                 8.0
                                                                          7.4           7.3                        7.5
                                                                                                                                 9.5                                 9.5
 •http://www.bls.gov/opub/ils/pdf/
  opbils74.pdf                                                                                                                           10.8    7.1          8.1
                                                                                                        7.7                      7.2
 •http://www.bls.gov/lau/                                   11.2
  stalt09q1.htm                                                                                                                                                      8.0
                                                                                                                                  U.S. = 8.3%

                                                                                               6.4                                Less than 6.9%
                                                                                                                                  7% to 9.9%
                                          Labor Underutilization                                                                 10 % to 12.9%

Historically, this U-6 measure of
                                            (U-6) Rates • 2007                                                                    Greater than 13%

labor underutilization has only been
available for the nation. However,
BLS recently published U-6 annual
averages by state for 2005-2008,
and first quarter of 2009. Utah’s                       11.9
lowest unemployment rate was a                                                   11.4                                                                                             9.5
                                                                                                                                                                                        8.7
                                                                                                                                                                                               11.8
                                                                                                      6.3
remarkable 2.6 percent in 2007,
                                                 15.3
while its U-6 rate was reported at                                 12.0                                7.5               11.6          10.1                                                         10.3
5.0 percent.                                                                        6.6                                                                                    10.9
                                                                                                                                                  17.2
                                                                                                                           8.7                                                               11.3 15.0
                                                                                                      6.9                                                                10.4
                                                            13.1                                                                                                                          10.7
The latest report, for the first                                                                                                                        13.3
                                                                          7.6                                                            13.0 12.3                                       10.7
quarter of 2009, showed Utah’s                15.6                                      10.4                                                                      10.2
                                                                                                                                                                         8.7            9.1
unemployment rate rising to 4.3                                                                              8.6                11.5                 12.6
and its U-6 rate jumping to 7.6                                     12.9                                                                        13.6
                                                                                                                                                                         13.3
percent. Even with this broader                                                                                7.4              11.7                                14.4
                                                                                        10.2
definition Utah ranks reasonably                                                                                                                11.8
                                                                                                                                        12.6                 13.1
well. In first quarter 2009, its 7.6                                                                 10.1                       8.2
percent rate is one of the lowest,
                                                       12.3
with only North Dakota, Wyoming,                                                                                                                                    13.8
Nebraska, Oklahoma, and South                                                                                                    U.S. = 8.3%
Dakota with lower rates.
                                                                                              11.4
                                                                                                                                 Less than 6.9%
This new measure will provide a                                                                                                  7% to 9.9%
broader perspective on the impacts
of economic change encountered by         Labor Underutilization                                                                 10% to 12.9%
Utah’s workforce. Hopefully, it will   (U-6) Rates • 1st Quarter 2009                                                            Greater than 13%
add information that helps policy
makers in their decisions.
                                                                                                                                                  Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics




jobs.utah.gov/wi                                                                                                                                                                 Trendlines                 15
national news by jim robson,
section name ||by name, title economist




                                                                                       their perceived wealth would only grow
                                                                                       in the future. This gave households
                                                                                       the confidence to spend freely, often
                                                                                       using debt that seemed reasonable at
                                                                                       the time to finance their expenditures.
                                                                                       The flip side was that many financial
                                                                                       institutions, under relaxed or non-
                                                                                       existent regulations, were eagerly
                                                                                       promoting and providing the credit.

                                                                                       Businesses became dependent on the
                                                                                       very high levels of consumer spending.
                                                                                       The severe recession—with high
                                                                                       unemployment, reduced earnings, and
                                                                                       lower household equity wealth—is
                                                                                       forcing consumers to abandon their
                                                                                       free-spending ways. Businesses, as they
                                                                                       plan for the future, must try to adjust
                                                                                       to the long-term impacts of the current
                                                                                       recession and the on-going structural
                                                                                       changes to the economy.

                                                                                       Recent polls of U.S. households have
                                                                                       tried to gauge whether the recently
                                                                                       reduced levels of consumer spending
                                                                                       and higher levels of household savings
                                                                                       are just the results of the current higher
                                                                                       rates of unemployment, the fear of
                                                                                       job loss, and housing difficulties, or
                                                                                       whether a new attitude of increased
                                                                                       frugality and more saving will persist
                                                                                       after the economy recovers. A Pew
                                                                                       Research Center survey found that quite
                                                                                       a number of Americans now believe
                                                                                       some products previously viewed as a
                                                                                       necessity, like a microwave, are now


  O
          ne of the distressing economic      personal income), which averaged         viewed to be more of a luxury. A Gallop
          conditions over the past year       about 9.8 percent from 1970 to 1985,     poll from last April indicated that
          has been much lower levels of       dropped from about 7.7 percent in        many American households believe
  consumer spending. Businesses that          1992 to zero, going negative briefly,    that the adjustments they have made
  had catered to, and profited from, the      as U.S. households spent more than       to increase savings are a “new, normal
  record high spending of the recent          they earned at the peak of the housing   pattern for years ahead.”
  past now face a difficult period of         bubble in 2005 and 2006. During this
  restructuring from ultra—free spending      period, households made home equity      What people say they will do is one
  to a more frugal consumer.                  withdrawals totaling almost a trillion   thing, their actual future behavior is
                                              dollars from what was, in most cases,    what counts. There are a number of
  Consumption, which accounted for            wildly inflated home prices.             reasons why this higher savings rate may
  about 64.3 percent of economic activity                                              last beyond the current recession. The
  in the U.S. during the 80s, reached a       The easy credit and skyrocketing asset   high asset values of the housing boom
  summit of 70.5 percent in 2008. The         values that characterized the housing    will not return, some credit tightening
  personal savings rate (total savings in     and stock market bubbles created large   is permanent, and new regulation will
  the U.S. as a percent of total disposable   paper gains and the presumption that     be put into place to prevent some of




16 July/August 2009
9

        8

        7

        6

        5




                                                                                            Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
        4

        3

        2

        1

        0

       -1
         1988      1990    1992     1994   1996   1998   2000   2002   2004   2006   2008




the freewheeling financial excesses that
developed during the boom. It is also
expected that baby boomers are feeling
the need to save more for retirement
and to help fund the expensive cost of
their children’s college educations.

As the summer begins, the national
economic news is still dominated
with reports of job losses, contracting
business demand, and lower consumer
and business spending. The most
positive news is that economic
conditions are deteriorating at slower
rates and that the bottom of this
recession may be in sight. If a new
frugal consumer becomes the norm,
the increased savings should lead to
more investment, greater productivity,
and higher living standards in the long
run.




jobs.utah.gov/wi                                                                                                                       Trendlines   17
the outskirts | by lecia parks langston, economist




               Washington County
                 from
                      Boom W
                        Bust? to                              ashington     County      has
                                                              generally loved its status
                                                              as Utah’s poster child for
                                                     growth. Since 1970, Washington
                                                     County’s population has almost
                                                     doubled every decade as affordable
                                                     central air-conditioning made the
                                                     desert more livable. To put this truly
                                                     remarkable growth in perspective,
                                                     remember that the U.S. population
                                                     grew between 10 and 14 percent during
                                                     the same decades the St. George area
                                                     was experiencing 90-percent growth.



                                                     Astounding Growth
                                                     Population growth fueled economic
                                                     growth. In the two decades prior to
                                                     2007, Washington County’s annual
                                                     nonfarm job growth never slipped
                                                     below 3.4 percent. Even more
                                                     remarkably,    annual   employment
                                                     expansion averaged a whopping 8
                                                     percent between 1987 and 2007. Again
                                                     some perspective—nationally over the
                                                     same time period, annual job growth
                                                     measured only 1.5 percent and never
                                                     got above 3.2 percent.

                                                     As Washington County’s mushrooming
                                                     population qualified it as a Metropolitan
                                                     Statistical Area, it flew to the top of
                                                     many national rankings of economic
                                                     prosperity and growth. The St. George
                                                     area seemed the economic wunderkind
                                                     of Utah—the recipient of perpetual
                                                     economic favor. But trouble was
                                                     brewing.


                                                     Warren Buffet: “When
                                                     the masses get
                                                     greedy, I get scared.”
                                                     Construction and economic growth
                                                     based on population expansion had
                                                     kept the county on a firm footing for
                                                     many years. However, the speculative



18 July/August 2009
50

                 40
                              St. George         Salt Lake              Las Vegas
                 30

                 20
Percent Change




                 10

                  0

                 -10
                       1988




                                  1991




                                             1994




                                                               1997




                                                                                 2000




                                                                                                    2003




                                                                                                                           2006
                 -20

                 -30

                 -40          Year-over Change in MSA Area Housing Price Index (HPI)
                                                                        Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, http://www.ofheo.gov/hpi.aspx




     building frenzy that ensued in mid-
     decade sewed the seeds of short-term           Bubbles Eventually                                 enters periods of economic slowdown
                                                                                                       earlier than the state and nation—
     economic demise—in Washington
     County and across the nation.                  Pop
                                                    But, market forces cannot be thwarted
                                                                                                       but generally recovers sooner also.
                                                                                                       The housing market appears to be
                                                                                                       stabilizing. And finally, Washington
     In the past, true demand for homes as          forever. Bubble markets in crude oil,              County hasn’t lost the qualities that
     residences drove residential construction      dot-com stocks and housing will                    have made it attractive to in-migrants
     gains. But during the recent boom,             eventually collapse to prices based on             for 30 years. Once the market adjusts,
     speculative demand took control as             true demand. Washington County’s                   the county’s economic growth should
     investors of every ilk bought and built        current market adjustment is not a                 continue with some hard lessons
     with the notion of “flipping” homes            pleasant one. Last year, Washington                learned.
     and properties to make a huge short-           County lost jobs for the first time since
     term profit. Developers, large investors,      1974. In December 2008, employment                 For more information: http://jobs.utah.gov/
     and individual home buyers (aided by           was down 8 percent on a year-over                  jsp/wi/utalmis/gotoCounties.do
     short-sighted lenders) participated in         basis (almost three-fourths of lost jobs
     bidding up real estate prices. Home and        were in construction).
     lot prices skyrocketed, wages did not.
                                                    Unemployment has reached levels
     That created a bubble, and at the              not seen since the 1980s. Foreclosure
     peak of the bubble, the Office of
     Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight’s
                                                    rates are high, lots sit vacant, and
                                                    in-migrants are scarce. And, before                        Washington
     housing price index for the St. George
     MSA showed an annual increase of
                                                    residential building can return with
                                                    any force, lots and home inventories                   County hasn't lost
                                                                                                            the qualities that
     almost 40 percent (the Salt Lake index         must be absorbed.
     peaked at only 20 percent). Investors
     and lenders appeared to believe price
     increases would continue ad infinitum.
     They ignored the reality that the              Any Good News?                                         made it attractive
     possibility of great profit is inexorably
     linked to the probability of great loss.
     The economy became unbalanced, as
                                                    Is there any good news for Washington
                                                    County? Yes. Job surveys seem to
                                                    indicate that employment losses
                                                                                                              for 30 years.
     most working people could not truly            bottomed out in the first quarter of
     afford homes.                                  2009. Washington County typically


     jobs.utah.gov/wi                                                                                                                        Trendlines     19
occupations | by linda marling church, research analyst



                                                                                   Strong math and computer
                                                                                        skills will assist those
                                                                                      seeking this occupation.



     Economi$t
  A
         sk an economist. . . How many times have we              If you have strong math and computer skills and are
         heard that refrain over the past months? What has        imaginative enough to bridge the gap between theory and
         happened to our economy has confounded many of           reality, you may be a candidate for this occupation.
  us; there are no CliffsNotes® for this complex situation, and
  to understand it we have turned to the experts: economists.

  What exactly is an economist? The Department of Labor               Employment Projections 2006—2016 for Economists
  defines economists as those who “conduct research, prepare
  reports, or formulate plans to aid in solution of economic




                                                                                                                                          Annual %Change
                                                                                             Employment




                                                                                                                   Employment




                                                                                                                                                                           Total Annual
  problems arising from production and distribution of
                                                                          Area Name




                                                                                                                                                                            Openings
                                                                                                                    Projected
                                                                                               Current
  goods and services. They may collect and process economic
  and statistical data using econometric and sampling
  techniques.”

  Economists are interpreters—prognosticators, if you will—         Utah—
  the layperson’s medium into the world of production,              Statewide                       97               115                  1.9                                 10
  distribution, and consumption, or what is collectively
  known as the economy. How else are we to understand               United                      12,724             13,442                 0.6                                  0
  derivatives, diseconomy of scale, inflation, deflation or         States
  stagflation without a lot of help? In addition to explaining
  economic phenomena, economists analyze data that helps                                                       Source: Department of Workforce Services
  forecast trends, interpret markets and formulate economic
  policy. Economists also influence public policy and affect
  legislation. Since over 50 percent of economists are employed
  by government entities, they can wield a lot of power. Think                        Occupational Wages-Published May 2008
  Timothy Geithner or Ben Bernanke.                                                     (data from May 2007) for Economists
  A bachelor’s degree in economics results in an entry-level
                                                                                                                                                           Annual Median
                                                                                         Inexperienced




                                                                                                                          Inexperienced




  position, usually consisting of the boiler-plate collection
                                                                       Area Name




                                                                                                                                                                                   Training
                                                                                                          Median

                                                                                                                             Annual
                                                                                             Hourly


                                                                                                          Hourly




  and preparation of data. A master’s degree or Ph.D. provides
  more responsibility and can lead to teaching or higher-
  level government work. Most economists are employed
  by universities, research groups, and government entities,
  although the number of private enterprises employing              Salt Lake            $25.17           $31.04         $52,350                  $64,560
                                                                                                                                                                                   Bachelor's Degree




  economists has greatly increased in recent years. It is           City MSA
  common for an economist to specialize in a field such as
  labor, agriculture, or public finance.                            United                  —             $38.57             —                    $80,220
                                                                    States
  In Utah, economist is designated a two-star job, meaning
  that the occupation will experience slower-than-average           Utah                 $24.92           $30.86         $51,840                  $64,200
  employment growth with a low volume of job openings.
  The need for replacements, rather than demand from                                                           Source: Department of Workforce Services
  business expansion, is projected to make up the majority of
  job openings in the coming decade.


20 July/August 2009
To understand this
     complex economy,
     we turned to the
     experts—economists!



jobs.utah.gov/wi           Trendlines   21
our guest | by clayton scrivner, utah office of tourism




           Elevate your Vacation Value with a


       Staycation                                                                      this Summer


  T
        he weather is warming, and that      Southern Utah is a land of unsurpassed,   In northern Utah, Wasatch Front resi-
        means many around the state          unique beauty. Bikers negotiate rolling   dents find fun right at their doorsteps.
        have begun to make their vaca-       hummocks of slickrock. Hikers explore     From the gorgeous blue water of Bear
  tion plans. However, with economic         towering fins of sandstone. River run-    Lake to the Wasatch and Uinta moun-
  conditions as they are, experts are pre-   ners test the powerful waterways of the   tain ranges, a full-fledged vacation is
  dicting that travelers will be consider-   Desert Southwest.                         available less than an hour’s drive in
  ing a visit to locations closer to home.                                             any direction. Park City hosts events
                                             Southern Utah became famous for the       all summer long including jazz, food,
  Luckily, if you live in or near Utah you   red rock country; but the culture and     and art festivals, as well as other spe-
  have an unmatched variety of enjoy-        events of the area have been pleasing     cial events. Many of the area ski resorts
  able travel experiences close at hand.     visitors who come looking to create       run their lifts for mountain bikers who
  Whether it is enjoying “Broadway in the    lasting memories. The Tony Award-         want to ride from the top down.
  Desert” at Tuacahn after hiking Zion Na-   winning® Utah Shakespearean Festival
  tional Park, or shopping on Park City’s    is held during the summer and fall in     Antelope Island State Park, the largest
  Main Street after pedaling the Wasatch     Cedar City, and is also within a day’s    island on the Great Salt Lake, offers
  Crest Trail, the Utah experience is just   drive of Utah’s five national parks and   outdoor recreation in quiet solitude
  down the street or over the next hill.     other attractions.                        only seven miles across a causeway just




 22 July/August 2009
For more information on traveling in Utah
                        contact the Utah Office of Tourism at
                       800-200-1160 or visit www.utah.travel.




north of Utah’s capital city. Opportu-     largest festivals in the state. Temple
nities to view wildlife (from bison to     Square is the state’s most popular
birds) are available on backcountry        attraction—featuring peaceful beauty,
trails, which are open to horseback        elegant grounds, and the sounds of the
riding, mountain biking, hiking and        Mormon Tabernacle Choir. Hogle Zoo,
even cross-country skiing in the win-      This is the Place State Park, and the
ter. The Antelope Island Balloon Stam-     Utah Natural History Museum are all
pede draws a diverse crowd to the is-      ideal staycation spots, complementing
land every September.                      any visit to Salt Lake City.

Utah’s capital city is not only an         This is merely a glimpse into the
international gateway to some of           staycation possibilities waiting for you
the country’s most exciting outdoor        right here in Utah. To find out more
recreation; it is also a destination for   about events happening in Utah this
local travelers. Salt Lake City’s Utah     summer visit: www.nowplayingutah.
Arts Festival has become one of the        com.




jobs.utah.gov/wi                                                                      Trendlines   23
county highlight | by lecia parks langston, economist




  W
             hen the decennial census was
             taken in 1900, Juab County’s
                                                                 Juab
                                                                         County
             population measured just over
  10,000 individuals. In 2008, Juab County’s
  population was estimated at (drum roll,
  please)—just over 10,000 individuals. Of
  course, a lot of coming and going occurred in
  those 108 years. Juab County lost population
  as economic activity shifted to urban areas.
  The population low point was in 1970 (at
  about 4,600) and then slowly rebounded. The
  pace of growth has picked up in recent years
                                                           Juab County Year-Over Change
  as population spilled outside the Wasatch                       in Nonfarm Jobs
  Front.                                           30%

  Recent Juab County economic activity has         25%




                                                                                                                                    Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.
  been overshadowed by the construction/
  completion of the Currant Creek power plant.     20%
  Despite the employment ups and downs             15%
  associated with this major project (notice the
  chart’s 25-percent gain and 15-percent loss      10%
  within just 12 months), Juab County ended
  the recessionary year of 2008 with only a         5%
  0.5-percent year-over employment loss. Plus,      0%
  the county actually showed construction
  and manufacturing industry employment            -5%
  gains.
                                                   -10%
  For more information about Juab County,
                                                   -15%
  see http://jobs.utah.gov/jsp/wi/utalmis/
                                                          Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
  gotoCounties.do                                         2006                   2007                     2008




24 July/August 2009
The Summer Stimulus Internship Program

 Employers:                                         Young Adults:
 Get extra help this summer at NO cost!            Ages 18 to 24—Get a job this summer!




  • Get those “back burner” projects done          • Work 32-40 hours a week
  •Give staff the opportunity to get supervisory   • Various worksites throughout Utah high-
   experience                                       lighting medical/health and green (environ-
                                                    mental sensitive) job occupations
  •Provide local youth an opportunity to learn
   about your company—you may even find a          • Must meet income guidelines and other
   permanent employee                               eligibility criteria

                               For more information visit
                      http://jobs.utah.gov/services/stimulus.asp

jobs.utah.gov/wi                                                                       Trendlines   25
Utah Work/Life Awards
                                               2009
                                                                      Congratulations
                                                             to the Winners and Finalists of the 2009 Awards!
                                                                             2009 Winners:

                                                                Micro (less than 50 employees)
                                                                          Brown and Caldwell
                                                                          Cirque Corporation
                                                                           Powerquip Corp.
                                                                           Q90 Corporation
                                                                                 Statera
  Timeline for 2009                                                     The Employers Council
      Nominations will open January 14, 2009
      Applications are due March 25, 2009
                                                                      Utah Foster Care Foundation
      Awards will be presented Summer 2009

The Utah Work/                                                  Medium (50 – 500 employees)
                                                                           Access Development
Life Awards
               ú Best Practices Forums
               ú Legacy Mentor Companies
               ú Tours of Award-Winning Companies
                                                                       Cirris Systems Corporation
recognize and honor                                          Equitable Life & Casualty Insurance Company
                                                                             Futura Industries
companies andinformation, are
      go to jobs.utah.gov that
                    For more
                              click on Work/Life Awards,                Goldenwest Credit Union
       or email worklife@utah.gov or call 801-526-4321
                                                           Marriott Vacation Club International Owner Services
creating Work/Life Awards are presented by the
       The Utah exceptional                                            Software Technology Group
              Department of Workforce Services /
workplacesWork & Family Life
                  O ce of and                                             Spillman Technologies
                                                                            The Leavitt Group
businesses by                                                          The MGIS Companies, Inc.
                                                                        The Pepsi Bottling Group
effectively addressing                                                         ThomasArts
employee work/life
needs and striving to                                         Large (more than 500 employees)
                                                                           1-800 CONTACTS
create and maintain a                                                      ARUP Laboratories
                                                                      CHG Healthcare Services, Inc.
culture of equity and                                                InterContinental Hotels Group
                                                                          Nicholas & Co., Inc.
opportunity.                                                           TURN Community Services

                                                                           2009 Finalists:
                                                                             Ace Disposal
                                                                       Ascent Construction, Inc.
                                                                           Barnes Aerospace
                                                                              Best Vinyl
                                                                       Bob Barker Company, Inc.
                                                                               Clearlink
                                                                               Comcast
                                                                             DoxTek, Inc.
                                                                       Employer Solutions Group
                                                                           Kids on the Move
                                                                            LaneLinks, Inc.
                                                                               MonaVie
                                                                   Mountain America Credit Union
                                                                            Namifiers, LLC
                                                              Ralph L. Wadsworth Construction Company
                                                                           Snapp Conner PR
                                                                       WesTech Engineering Inc.
                                                                         Westminster College
rate update | workforce information




              just
                               April 2009                                       Changes From Last
                               Unemployment Rates                                     Year



               the .
                               Utah Unemployment Rate                5.2          Up             1.9 points




                  acts..
                               U.S. Unemployment Rate                8.9 %        Up             3.9 points




                f
                               Utah Nonfarm Jobs (000s)          1,219.1        Down             3.2 %
                               U.S. Nonfarm Jobs (000s)        132,348.0        Down             3.8 %

                               April 2009 Consumer Price
                               Index Rates
                               U.S. Consumer Price Index          213.2         Down             0.7%
                               U.S. Producer Price Index          169.9         Down             3.7%

      April 2009                                                     Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
      Seasonally Adjusted
      Unemployment Rates

      Beaver           5.0 %
      Box Elder        5.8 %




                                            Next Issue:
      Cache
      Carbon
                       4.0 %
                       6.1 %                   Watch for these features in our
      Daggett          4.3 %

      Davis            4.5 %
      Duchesne         6.3 %
      Emery            4.8%
      Garfield         8.3 %
      Grand            7.3 %

      Iron             6.3 %
      Juab             6.9 %
      Kane
      Millard
                       5.4 %
                       4.2 %                                   Theme:
      Morgan           4.7 %
                                                    Tourism, Hospitality &
      Piute
      Rich
                       4.5 %
                       4.3 %
                                                          Recreation
      Salt Lake        5.1 %
      San Juan         8.0 %
      Sanpete          6.1 %                       County Highlight:
      Sevier           5.7 %                                       Iron
      Summit           5.4 %
      Tooele           6.0 %
      Uintah
      Utah
                       6.0 %
                       4.8 %
                                                           Occupation:
      Wasatch          5.9 %
                                                             Police Officer
      Washington       6.9 %
      Wayne            5.5 %
      Weber            6.1%




jobs.utah.gov/wi                                                                                     Trendlines      27
Trendlines: Perspectives on Utah's Economy, July/Aug 2009

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Trendlines: Perspectives on Utah's Economy, July/Aug 2009

  • 1. July/August 2009 Perspectives on Utah’s Economy Evaluating Utah's Economy A MidSEASon ChECk-up Ready And Willing to Work— need a Job profligAtE SpEndErS to prudEnt SAvErS? The ECONOMY: PLUS: What Can We Elevate your vacation with a Expect? "Staycation" this summer Department of Workforce Services
  • 2. Trendlines Trendlines Utah Department of Workforce Services is published every other month by the Utah Department of Workforce Services, Executive Director Workforce Development and Information Kristen Cox Division. To read, download, or print this publication (free), see our Internet Workforce Development and Information site: http://jobs.utah.gov/wi. Click on Stephen Maas, Director “Publications” then select the one you want Stacey Joos, Assistant Director from the list. To obtain additional printed copies or to Contributors Mark Knold subscribe to Trendlines contact: John Mathews Department of Workforce Services Austin Sargent Attn: WDID Jim Robson 140 East 300 South Lecia Langston Salt Lake City, UT 84111 Linda Marling Church Kimberley Bartel Clayton Scrivner Telephone: (801) 526-9462 Juliette Tennert Fax: (801) 526-9238 Email: wipublications@utah.gov Coordination Connie Blaine The Workforce Development and Designer Information Division generates accurate, Pat Swenson timely, and understandable data and analyses to provide knowledge of ever- changing workforce environments that support sound planning and decision-making. jobs.utah.gov DWS-03-44-0709 Equal Opportunity Employer/Program Auxiliary aids and services are available upon request to individuals with disabilities by calling (801) 526-9240. Individuals with speech and/or hearing impairments may call the Relay Utah by dialing 711. Spanish Relay Utah: 1-888-346-3162. 2 July/August 2009
  • 3. July/August 2009 contents Perspectives on Utah’s Economy Evaluating Utah's Economy A MIDSEASON CHECK-UP Ready And Willing to Work— Need a Job The Economy: What Can We Expect? PROFLIGATE SPENDERS 4 Wasatch Front and Statewide TO PRUDENT SAVERS? American Recovery & Reinvestment The ECONOMY: What Can We PLUS: Elevate your vacation with a "Staycation" this summer 6 Act Summary Expect? Department of Workforce Services The Outlook Profiling Job Losses Through Initial Evaluating 8 Unemployment Claims Economic News Utah's Economy: The Changing Face of Manufacturing 11 A Midseason Economic Insight The Resume: Your Ticket Check-up 12 to a Job Interview Insider News Ready and Willing to Work—Need a Job 14 What's Happening Profligate Spenders to Prudent Savers? 16 National News Washington County: 18 From Boom to Bust? pg. 14 The Outskirts Economist 20 Occupations Elevate Your Vacation Value with a 22 "Staycation" This Summer Our Guest Juab County 24 County Highlight Just the Facts... 27 Rate Update pg. 16 jobs.utah.gov/wi Trendlines 3
  • 4. wasatch front and statewide | by mark knold, chief economist ThE Economy: What can We Expect? 4 July/August 2009
  • 5. U tah is deep into an economic downturn. Employment losses are adding up, and the inflow into the unemployment ranks is only slightly abating. Initial unemployment claim levels are dropping but still remain high enough to contribute to more bad economic numbers going forward. It appears that the economy is still trying to right itself, and there is more negative news yet to absorb. But there is also the feeling nationwide that the worst of this economic downturn is behind us—that the Our economy will economic free-fall that pervaded most of the winter is giving way to a feeling that we are somewhat getting our arms around this thing. Stabilizing the financial markets is the key to it all, and most of that sector’s bad news has come and gone. There may be a few recover alongside more dominoes yet to fall, but most of the falling has occurred. If this is a proper assessment, we need the national to start thinking about when is the first chance to turn the economic corner. The momentum into the summer months is largely occurring as we economic recovery. speak, so there isn’t much hope for it being this summer. The late fall and early winter hold more promise. Although the job losses should stabilize by then, and may even start to rebound, Did You Know... a rapid recovery is not in the works. The financial sector was too severely • Utah business executives are feeling more optimistic about their battered to consider it fixed and ready companies’ financial futures. http://www.deseretnews.com/ to open for business again. That sector’s article/705306588/Zions-executive-survey-takes-a-turn-toward- transition back into its traditional and optimism.html. important role will be much slower than we would like. • Investors from around the country as well as in Utah invested in Utah businesses more frequently in 2008 than in 2007. http:// Utah’s economy will recover alongside www.deseretnews.com/article/705305783/Investment-deals-grew- the national economic recovery. in-08-for-Utah-firms.html. Historically, Utah rebounds quickly and shows much swifter progress than the • The Interior Department will invest $118.7 million in Utah from national economy. That pattern may the Obama administration’s federal stimulus pot. http://www. not hold this time, at least not initially, sltrib.com/news/ci_12360805. as Utah’s lagging housing market could be the factor that keeps Utah’s recovery moderate. jobs.utah.gov/wi Trendlines 5
  • 6. the outlook | by juliette tennert, demographic & economic analysis, governor's office of American I Recovery n February 2009, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) was enacted by Congress and signed into law by the President. The & Reinvestment Act Summary About half of Utah’s ARRA funding is for the fiscal stabilization of state programs. Utah is receiving $390 million to mitigate budget shortfalls fiscal stabilization, the ARRA provides for approximately $385 million in infrastructure investments and $420 million for public services in Utah. ARRA provides for almost $790 billion in public and higher education, in federal tax reductions and increased and approximately $280 million in The President’s Council of Economic federal spending aimed at accelerating increased funding for Medicaid to Advisors estimates that the provisions the nation’s economic recovery. maintain healthcare services and to of ARRA will create or preserve over reduce general revenue support for the 3.6 million jobs nationally and ap- Tax relief accounts for approximately program which, in turn, can be used to proximately 32,000 jobs in Utah. Ex- $300 billion of the total ARRA package. stabilize other budget shortfalls. penditures and resulting economic ef- Major individual tax provisions include fects will be closely monitored over the the $8,000 First-Time Homebuyer The Governor was also given discretion coming months and years at recovery. Credit and Making Work Pay Credit, a over about $90 million in “general gov and recovery.utah.gov. refundable tax credit of 6.2% of earned stabilization funding.” This has been income up to $400 for individuals and $800 for married taxpayers. The directed toward uses aimed at creating jobs, reducing unemployment, Utah is expected to receive more than remaining $490 billion authorized by stabilizing and improving Utah’s ARRA is directed towards additional economy, and averting the need to raise funding for federal programs like taxes, such as investments in the Home Medicaid and Temporary Assistance For Needy Families, infrastructure Run housing grant program and the Utah Science Technology and Research $2 billion in tax (includes highway improvements and modernization of the electric grid), and Initiative (USTAR). In addition to relief. aid to state and local governments. It is anticipated that Utah will receive approximately $1.6 billion in formulary funding through ARRA and even more through competitive grants. Utah families and businesses are expected to experience more than an estimated $2 billion in tax relief. 6 July/August 2009
  • 7. planning and budget Education Utah Employment: Gender By Industry 2007million $390 Stabilization Medicaid $280 $90 General Purpose Utah ARRA Allocations Transportation $270 Infrastructure Energy $70 Water $40 $5 Community Development It is estimated that Education $190 these provisions will create or preserve over Labor $140 3.6 million jobs, 32,000 Services $70 Health & Human Services of which are in Utah. $20 Law Enforcement Source: Recovery.utah.gov Other Energy 1% 5% Education & Training 7% Tax Relief 38% Healthcare United States 7% Distribution of ARRA Funds State & Local Protecting the Fiscal Relief Vulnerable Infrastructure 18% 10% & Science 14% Source: Recovery.gov jobs.utah.gov/wi Trendlines 7
  • 8. economic news | by mark knold, chief economist 1,001 t Box Elder Cache 501 to Rich 251 to Weber 1 to 25 Morgan Davis Summit Initial Unemployment Claims Salt Lake by Zip Code Wasatch January—April 2009 Tooele Box Elder 1,001 to 2,000 Duchesne Cache 501 to 1,000 Utah Rich 251 to 500 Weber 1 to 250 Morgan Juab Davis Summit Daggett Ca Salt Lake Millard Wasatch Tooele Utah Duchesne Uintah Sanpete 1,001 to 2,000 Box Elder Emery Juab Cache 501 to 1,000 Carbon Rich 251 to 500 Millard Weber Sanpete Sevier 1 to 250 Emery Grand Morgan White space assumes Davis missing zip code data. Beaver Dagg Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services Sevier Summit Piute Wayne Beaver Piute Wayne Salt Lake Iron Iron Wasatch Garfield Garfield Tooele Duchesne Utah San Juan Uintah Washington Kane Washington Juab Kane Carbon Millard 8 July/August 2009 Sanpete
  • 9. Profiling Job Losses Through Initial Unemployment Claims Certain truisms are visible in Utah's claims profiling, one of which is that people with higher levels of education make more money than those with less and also have lower rates of unemployment. E conomists monitor economic claims were still running high in more reticent about laying them variables as part of their Utah. Compared against the same off. analysis of the economy’s time period of the prior year, claims performance. One current and are three times higher this year. These truisms are visible in Utah’s quickly measureable variable is This isn’t a surprise considering unemployment claims profiling. weekly initial unemployment that the state and nation are in a Utah’s initial unemployment insurance claims. This is an severe economic downturn. Yet it claims have been high this year, accounting of people who have signals that the employment losses so it offers ample information for recently lost a job and filed for associated with this downturn are observation. Nearly three-quarters unemployment benefits during a not yet giving an indication of of all initial claimants had 13 years week. These claims can be quantified easing off. of education or less (a high school and summarized as rapidly as the diploma would represent 12 years of following week. This quick profile Initial unemployment claims also education). Those with a bachelor’s makes initial unemployment offer a profile of those filing for degree or higher accounted for only claims one of the more leading of unemployment relief. There are 12 percent of unemployment claims all economic variables. It is also certain truisms within economic filed. a good measure of how the future labor market observations. One is employment variables may play that people with higher levels of A map of Utah by zip code areas out, as a rapid increase in claims education make more money than (the lowest level of claims data portends significant job losses in the those with less (generally speaking; available) and populated with the upcoming month’s employment individual results my vary). Going number of initial claimants since counts. hand-in-hand with this is that those the beginning of the year show a with more education also have low- few “hot spots”—some a surprise, Utah’s initial claims made a er rates of unemployment. Their some not. Areas in West Valley noticeable movement upward obtained skills and knowledge are City, northwest Davis County, and beginning in November 2008. As more in demand and more costly northwest Weber County are some of May 2009, initial unemployment to replace, therefore employers are of the non-surprise areas. Why? The continued on next page jobs.utah.gov/wi Trendlines 9
  • 10. economic news | by mark knold, chief economist continued from previous page Census reveals that these are areas job growth numbers for that county with lower per-household income (the most recent data available), job measurements. growth was around 10 percent. That was energy-driven growth (oil and If income corresponds with education gas). The high claims activity since levels, which inversely corresponds January suggests that the energy with unemployment activity, then industry’s fortunes out there may Two surprise “hot one would expect claims activity to have turned on a dime. That theory spots” are Vernal, be higher in these areas. matches with the flip in energy prices, and other anecdotal data surrounding and eastern Tooele Another area of non-surprise is St. the energy industry. George. Because of overbuilding and County—but they overpricing of housing in that area, Initial claims in Tooele County are both have probable it is Utah’s economically hardest-hit probably a demographic (and there- fore an income) issue. There was area. Therefore, it is not a surprise answers. that claims are high there. As recently a wave in the late 1990s and early as two or three years ago it would 2000s of Salt Lake-based people go- have been a complete shock to see ing to Tooele County to build an that number of claims there, given affordable home. These commuters Washington County’s seemingly were young and of lower income. perpetual boom economy, but not Therefore, when it comes time for now. layoffs, we have highlighted the vul- nerability of lower incomes. We also Two surprise “hot spots” are Vernal, need to highlight the vulnerability of and eastern Tooele County—but they age. If layoffs are based upon senior- both have probable answers. Vernal ity (as oftentimes they are), then the has had high claims in its past, so younger workers lose their jobs first. that’s not the surprise. The surprise is That would impact that part of Tooele that when looking at the December County. Utah Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims January 2008 – May 2009 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services 10 July/August 2009
  • 11. economic insight | by john mathews, economist The Changing Face of Manufacturing Utah. For example, way back in 1960 over 28 percent of to- tal jobs in our nation were in manufacturing. Today (2008), that figure is 9.8 percent. In Utah back in 1960—baby boom- ers were still being born—that percent was 17.8. It’s not that manufacturing has actually declined but it hasn’t grown as quickly as the other major industry sectors. Manufacturing has had its ups and downs through a number of recessions but it has always rebounded. Many manufacturing jobs have been outsourced, leaving the country because businesses in a capitalistic system make choices to produce products where they can maximize rev- M anufacturing is the industry that makes things. enue and minimize costs. Where a product is made is the This major industry sector is an economic driver choice of a company, and those decisions are based on the for the economy because the output is typically profit motive. The U. S. remains the strongest economy in exported, which generates revenue coming into the state. the world because we perform by doing what we do best. It’s That’s a good thing. This sector pays well above the average called comparative advantage. wage, which is also a good thing. All this is positive, but there are also some not-so-positive aspects of manufactur- ing. Being an export-based industry exposes it to the vaga- Utah’s Manufacturing Industry ries of ups and downs in the larger regional, national, and Taking a more current look at the industry, say from 1992 to world markets. Still, the risk is acceptable because of all the 2008, provides some interesting insights. Over the 16-year positives about manufacturing. period, Utah’s total economy has grown at a 3.9-percent per year pace. Manufacturing has grown at a 1.4-percent annual The industry as a whole is changing. Its employment posi- rate. Over 23,000 new manufacturing jobs have increased tion relative to the other major industry sectors is declin- employment from 102,500 in 1992 to the current 125,900 ing. We are in the information-based economy now, not the level in 2008. During that period the industry lost jobs (in a goods-based one of the last 40 to 50 years. Though its output year-over comparison) in six of the 16 years. is as high as ever, manufacturing jobs as a percent of total jobs in the economy, is slipping (technology and automa- Manufacturing jobs, as a percent of total jobs in Utah, have tion are making up the difference). This is not just unique to declined. In 1992, about 13.3 percent of all jobs were in man- ufacturing. By 2008 that slice of the pie had slipped to 10.0 14% percent. Remember the number of jobs has not dropped, Manufacturing Employment as a rather the percent of total jobs has. Percent of Total Jobs in Utah 13% 1992-2008 The good news is manufacturing pays well and always has. The average monthly wage for all industries in 2008 was $3,120. Manufacturing’s average pay was $3,870—24 per- 12% cent higher. Over the 1992-2008 period wages increased by 4.6 percent per year, both in total and in manufacturing. 11% Remember, the content of manufacturing is changing. The look of manufacturing in 1960 is far dif- ferent than it is today. The mix of indus- 10% tries within manufacturing is changing, responding to forces in the market. It will 9% continue to be a very important provider of jobs and revenue for Utah. 8% Find more information at: http://jobs.utah. gov/opencms/wi/statewide/ifsheets/manu- facturing.pdf 7% 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: May 2009 jobs.utah.gov/wi Trendlines 11
  • 12. insider news | by kimberley bartel, manager The Resume: Your Ticket to a Job Interview Y our resume should let the you want. Make sure the information is Some of the old resume rules don’t employer know as clearly and accurate and complete. apply any more. For example, the quickly as possible what you can length of your resume doesn’t have to do for that organization or company. Next, research resumes. You can find be limited to just one page—it depends It is your primary sales tool to market helpful information on the Internet. on your industry and the jobs you are yourself to an employer. The main Look at examples of resumes given applying for. Every resume doesn’t have purpose of your resume is to get an on Web sites. You can even Google to have an objective at the top. You interview. resumes for specific occupations and should include an objective only if you see what other people’s resumes look think it will help get you an interview. If you don’t have a resume, the first like. There are also templates available Tailor your resume to meet the specific step is to make a list of your education, on the Web you can use, and some needs of your targeted industry, job, employment history, skills, and organizations require you to fill in their employer and company. accomplishments that relate to the job resume templates. 12 July/August 2009
  • 13. Decide which format you will use for your resume and target it to the job format works well for those changing careers or new graduates. However, DO: you are seeking. This means you need some hiring authorities don’t favor •Make sure there are no errors or to update your resume every time this format because they suspect it is misspellings you apply for a different job and use used to hide something. language from the job announcement •Have someone proofread your when it is appropriate. Targeting your The Combination format brings resume resume is a very powerful method to together both the Chronological and set yourself apart from the competition the Functional resumes. This format •Make sure you have a version you and capture the employer’s interest. begins with a summary of your most can email or cut and paste This is a critical step when there are impressive qualifications, skills, abili- many people applying for the same ties and accomplishments. This infor- •Include your name, mailing job. mation is followed by an employment address, telephone number, and history and education section that email address There are basically three main formats supports the statements made in the for resumes: Chronological, Function- top portion. •Update your resume for each job al, and Combination. It is important to put the most impres- The Chronological format’s em- sive information first and make sure it phasis is placed on a chronological is perfect because employers only look listing of employment and employ- ment-related experience. This is a at each resume for about 10-15 sec- onds before they determine whether DON’T: good format if you have a consistent they will interview you. Remember, •Include hobbies unless they relate employment history, with no gaps, your resume is your marketing tool to to the job and past employment experiences are convince the employer you should be related to your current employment interviewed for the position! •Include personal information goals. about marital status, age, religion, Check Out: etc. The Functional format highlights •www.jobs.utah.gov •Put references on your resume, skills, experience, and accomplish- ments without identifying specific have them available on a separate •http://careers.msn.com/ dates, names, and places. Employment document history is de-emphasized by placing it •http://career-advice.monster.com/ near the bottom of the resume. This resumes-cover-letters/careers.aspx jobs.utah.gov/wi Trendlines 13
  • 14. what's happening | by austin sargent, economist What is the standard definition Ready and Willing to Work of someone unemployed? —Need a Job T he toll of the current recession is seen in the strong rise in unemployment throughout the nation and in Utah. While Utah still has a much lower unemployment rate than many other states, it still has seen a recent increase in unemployment also. Still, questions arise about how well the unemployment rate captures the impact on workers of an economic downturn, or those desiring to work. The standard definition of someone unemployed, as used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), is “people who are jobless, looking for jobs and available for work.” This definition also assumes some effort is being put forward to find work. However, you don’t have to look very far to find someone who wants to work full-time but is currently only able to find part-time work. Because of this, BLS has alternative measures of labor underutilization. The most comprehensive measure is called U-6, and it includes the total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part-time for economic reasons. This is sometimes mistakenly referred to as the “alternative unemployment rate.” But since it includes some classifications of working individuals, it really measures workers who aren’t able to work at full potential, due to economic conditions, or labor that is underutilized. 14 July/August 2009
  • 15. For more information on alternative measures of 8.8 6.5 labor underutilization see 7.1 5.8 6.9 8.9 10.0 8.2 the following links: 6.1 5.7 8.4 8.1 7.3 5.6 12.8 •http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/ 8.2 8.3 5.7 7.0 7.7 surveymost 7.6 9.7 7.4 5.0 8.6 7.8 7.3 6.4 9.9 9.2 •http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_ 7.3 8.3 9.3 6.1 6.3 htgm.htm#concepts 8.5 8.0 7.4 7.3 7.5 9.5 9.5 •http://www.bls.gov/opub/ils/pdf/ opbils74.pdf 10.8 7.1 8.1 7.7 7.2 •http://www.bls.gov/lau/ 11.2 stalt09q1.htm 8.0 U.S. = 8.3% 6.4 Less than 6.9% 7% to 9.9% Labor Underutilization 10 % to 12.9% Historically, this U-6 measure of (U-6) Rates • 2007 Greater than 13% labor underutilization has only been available for the nation. However, BLS recently published U-6 annual averages by state for 2005-2008, and first quarter of 2009. Utah’s 11.9 lowest unemployment rate was a 11.4 9.5 8.7 11.8 6.3 remarkable 2.6 percent in 2007, 15.3 while its U-6 rate was reported at 12.0 7.5 11.6 10.1 10.3 5.0 percent. 6.6 10.9 17.2 8.7 11.3 15.0 6.9 10.4 13.1 10.7 The latest report, for the first 13.3 7.6 13.0 12.3 10.7 quarter of 2009, showed Utah’s 15.6 10.4 10.2 8.7 9.1 unemployment rate rising to 4.3 8.6 11.5 12.6 and its U-6 rate jumping to 7.6 12.9 13.6 13.3 percent. Even with this broader 7.4 11.7 14.4 10.2 definition Utah ranks reasonably 11.8 12.6 13.1 well. In first quarter 2009, its 7.6 10.1 8.2 percent rate is one of the lowest, 12.3 with only North Dakota, Wyoming, 13.8 Nebraska, Oklahoma, and South U.S. = 8.3% Dakota with lower rates. 11.4 Less than 6.9% This new measure will provide a 7% to 9.9% broader perspective on the impacts of economic change encountered by Labor Underutilization 10% to 12.9% Utah’s workforce. Hopefully, it will (U-6) Rates • 1st Quarter 2009 Greater than 13% add information that helps policy makers in their decisions. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs.utah.gov/wi Trendlines 15
  • 16. national news by jim robson, section name ||by name, title economist their perceived wealth would only grow in the future. This gave households the confidence to spend freely, often using debt that seemed reasonable at the time to finance their expenditures. The flip side was that many financial institutions, under relaxed or non- existent regulations, were eagerly promoting and providing the credit. Businesses became dependent on the very high levels of consumer spending. The severe recession—with high unemployment, reduced earnings, and lower household equity wealth—is forcing consumers to abandon their free-spending ways. Businesses, as they plan for the future, must try to adjust to the long-term impacts of the current recession and the on-going structural changes to the economy. Recent polls of U.S. households have tried to gauge whether the recently reduced levels of consumer spending and higher levels of household savings are just the results of the current higher rates of unemployment, the fear of job loss, and housing difficulties, or whether a new attitude of increased frugality and more saving will persist after the economy recovers. A Pew Research Center survey found that quite a number of Americans now believe some products previously viewed as a necessity, like a microwave, are now O ne of the distressing economic personal income), which averaged viewed to be more of a luxury. A Gallop conditions over the past year about 9.8 percent from 1970 to 1985, poll from last April indicated that has been much lower levels of dropped from about 7.7 percent in many American households believe consumer spending. Businesses that 1992 to zero, going negative briefly, that the adjustments they have made had catered to, and profited from, the as U.S. households spent more than to increase savings are a “new, normal record high spending of the recent they earned at the peak of the housing pattern for years ahead.” past now face a difficult period of bubble in 2005 and 2006. During this restructuring from ultra—free spending period, households made home equity What people say they will do is one to a more frugal consumer. withdrawals totaling almost a trillion thing, their actual future behavior is dollars from what was, in most cases, what counts. There are a number of Consumption, which accounted for wildly inflated home prices. reasons why this higher savings rate may about 64.3 percent of economic activity last beyond the current recession. The in the U.S. during the 80s, reached a The easy credit and skyrocketing asset high asset values of the housing boom summit of 70.5 percent in 2008. The values that characterized the housing will not return, some credit tightening personal savings rate (total savings in and stock market bubbles created large is permanent, and new regulation will the U.S. as a percent of total disposable paper gains and the presumption that be put into place to prevent some of 16 July/August 2009
  • 17. 9 8 7 6 5 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 4 3 2 1 0 -1 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 the freewheeling financial excesses that developed during the boom. It is also expected that baby boomers are feeling the need to save more for retirement and to help fund the expensive cost of their children’s college educations. As the summer begins, the national economic news is still dominated with reports of job losses, contracting business demand, and lower consumer and business spending. The most positive news is that economic conditions are deteriorating at slower rates and that the bottom of this recession may be in sight. If a new frugal consumer becomes the norm, the increased savings should lead to more investment, greater productivity, and higher living standards in the long run. jobs.utah.gov/wi Trendlines 17
  • 18. the outskirts | by lecia parks langston, economist Washington County from Boom W Bust? to ashington County has generally loved its status as Utah’s poster child for growth. Since 1970, Washington County’s population has almost doubled every decade as affordable central air-conditioning made the desert more livable. To put this truly remarkable growth in perspective, remember that the U.S. population grew between 10 and 14 percent during the same decades the St. George area was experiencing 90-percent growth. Astounding Growth Population growth fueled economic growth. In the two decades prior to 2007, Washington County’s annual nonfarm job growth never slipped below 3.4 percent. Even more remarkably, annual employment expansion averaged a whopping 8 percent between 1987 and 2007. Again some perspective—nationally over the same time period, annual job growth measured only 1.5 percent and never got above 3.2 percent. As Washington County’s mushrooming population qualified it as a Metropolitan Statistical Area, it flew to the top of many national rankings of economic prosperity and growth. The St. George area seemed the economic wunderkind of Utah—the recipient of perpetual economic favor. But trouble was brewing. Warren Buffet: “When the masses get greedy, I get scared.” Construction and economic growth based on population expansion had kept the county on a firm footing for many years. However, the speculative 18 July/August 2009
  • 19. 50 40 St. George Salt Lake Las Vegas 30 20 Percent Change 10 0 -10 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 -20 -30 -40 Year-over Change in MSA Area Housing Price Index (HPI) Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, http://www.ofheo.gov/hpi.aspx building frenzy that ensued in mid- decade sewed the seeds of short-term Bubbles Eventually enters periods of economic slowdown earlier than the state and nation— economic demise—in Washington County and across the nation. Pop But, market forces cannot be thwarted but generally recovers sooner also. The housing market appears to be stabilizing. And finally, Washington In the past, true demand for homes as forever. Bubble markets in crude oil, County hasn’t lost the qualities that residences drove residential construction dot-com stocks and housing will have made it attractive to in-migrants gains. But during the recent boom, eventually collapse to prices based on for 30 years. Once the market adjusts, speculative demand took control as true demand. Washington County’s the county’s economic growth should investors of every ilk bought and built current market adjustment is not a continue with some hard lessons with the notion of “flipping” homes pleasant one. Last year, Washington learned. and properties to make a huge short- County lost jobs for the first time since term profit. Developers, large investors, 1974. In December 2008, employment For more information: http://jobs.utah.gov/ and individual home buyers (aided by was down 8 percent on a year-over jsp/wi/utalmis/gotoCounties.do short-sighted lenders) participated in basis (almost three-fourths of lost jobs bidding up real estate prices. Home and were in construction). lot prices skyrocketed, wages did not. Unemployment has reached levels That created a bubble, and at the not seen since the 1980s. Foreclosure peak of the bubble, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight’s rates are high, lots sit vacant, and in-migrants are scarce. And, before Washington housing price index for the St. George MSA showed an annual increase of residential building can return with any force, lots and home inventories County hasn't lost the qualities that almost 40 percent (the Salt Lake index must be absorbed. peaked at only 20 percent). Investors and lenders appeared to believe price increases would continue ad infinitum. They ignored the reality that the Any Good News? made it attractive possibility of great profit is inexorably linked to the probability of great loss. The economy became unbalanced, as Is there any good news for Washington County? Yes. Job surveys seem to indicate that employment losses for 30 years. most working people could not truly bottomed out in the first quarter of afford homes. 2009. Washington County typically jobs.utah.gov/wi Trendlines 19
  • 20. occupations | by linda marling church, research analyst Strong math and computer skills will assist those seeking this occupation. Economi$t A sk an economist. . . How many times have we If you have strong math and computer skills and are heard that refrain over the past months? What has imaginative enough to bridge the gap between theory and happened to our economy has confounded many of reality, you may be a candidate for this occupation. us; there are no CliffsNotes® for this complex situation, and to understand it we have turned to the experts: economists. What exactly is an economist? The Department of Labor Employment Projections 2006—2016 for Economists defines economists as those who “conduct research, prepare reports, or formulate plans to aid in solution of economic Annual %Change Employment Employment Total Annual problems arising from production and distribution of Area Name Openings Projected Current goods and services. They may collect and process economic and statistical data using econometric and sampling techniques.” Economists are interpreters—prognosticators, if you will— Utah— the layperson’s medium into the world of production, Statewide 97 115 1.9 10 distribution, and consumption, or what is collectively known as the economy. How else are we to understand United 12,724 13,442 0.6 0 derivatives, diseconomy of scale, inflation, deflation or States stagflation without a lot of help? In addition to explaining economic phenomena, economists analyze data that helps Source: Department of Workforce Services forecast trends, interpret markets and formulate economic policy. Economists also influence public policy and affect legislation. Since over 50 percent of economists are employed by government entities, they can wield a lot of power. Think Occupational Wages-Published May 2008 Timothy Geithner or Ben Bernanke. (data from May 2007) for Economists A bachelor’s degree in economics results in an entry-level Annual Median Inexperienced Inexperienced position, usually consisting of the boiler-plate collection Area Name Training Median Annual Hourly Hourly and preparation of data. A master’s degree or Ph.D. provides more responsibility and can lead to teaching or higher- level government work. Most economists are employed by universities, research groups, and government entities, although the number of private enterprises employing Salt Lake $25.17 $31.04 $52,350 $64,560 Bachelor's Degree economists has greatly increased in recent years. It is City MSA common for an economist to specialize in a field such as labor, agriculture, or public finance. United — $38.57 — $80,220 States In Utah, economist is designated a two-star job, meaning that the occupation will experience slower-than-average Utah $24.92 $30.86 $51,840 $64,200 employment growth with a low volume of job openings. The need for replacements, rather than demand from Source: Department of Workforce Services business expansion, is projected to make up the majority of job openings in the coming decade. 20 July/August 2009
  • 21. To understand this complex economy, we turned to the experts—economists! jobs.utah.gov/wi Trendlines 21
  • 22. our guest | by clayton scrivner, utah office of tourism Elevate your Vacation Value with a Staycation this Summer T he weather is warming, and that Southern Utah is a land of unsurpassed, In northern Utah, Wasatch Front resi- means many around the state unique beauty. Bikers negotiate rolling dents find fun right at their doorsteps. have begun to make their vaca- hummocks of slickrock. Hikers explore From the gorgeous blue water of Bear tion plans. However, with economic towering fins of sandstone. River run- Lake to the Wasatch and Uinta moun- conditions as they are, experts are pre- ners test the powerful waterways of the tain ranges, a full-fledged vacation is dicting that travelers will be consider- Desert Southwest. available less than an hour’s drive in ing a visit to locations closer to home. any direction. Park City hosts events Southern Utah became famous for the all summer long including jazz, food, Luckily, if you live in or near Utah you red rock country; but the culture and and art festivals, as well as other spe- have an unmatched variety of enjoy- events of the area have been pleasing cial events. Many of the area ski resorts able travel experiences close at hand. visitors who come looking to create run their lifts for mountain bikers who Whether it is enjoying “Broadway in the lasting memories. The Tony Award- want to ride from the top down. Desert” at Tuacahn after hiking Zion Na- winning® Utah Shakespearean Festival tional Park, or shopping on Park City’s is held during the summer and fall in Antelope Island State Park, the largest Main Street after pedaling the Wasatch Cedar City, and is also within a day’s island on the Great Salt Lake, offers Crest Trail, the Utah experience is just drive of Utah’s five national parks and outdoor recreation in quiet solitude down the street or over the next hill. other attractions. only seven miles across a causeway just 22 July/August 2009
  • 23. For more information on traveling in Utah contact the Utah Office of Tourism at 800-200-1160 or visit www.utah.travel. north of Utah’s capital city. Opportu- largest festivals in the state. Temple nities to view wildlife (from bison to Square is the state’s most popular birds) are available on backcountry attraction—featuring peaceful beauty, trails, which are open to horseback elegant grounds, and the sounds of the riding, mountain biking, hiking and Mormon Tabernacle Choir. Hogle Zoo, even cross-country skiing in the win- This is the Place State Park, and the ter. The Antelope Island Balloon Stam- Utah Natural History Museum are all pede draws a diverse crowd to the is- ideal staycation spots, complementing land every September. any visit to Salt Lake City. Utah’s capital city is not only an This is merely a glimpse into the international gateway to some of staycation possibilities waiting for you the country’s most exciting outdoor right here in Utah. To find out more recreation; it is also a destination for about events happening in Utah this local travelers. Salt Lake City’s Utah summer visit: www.nowplayingutah. Arts Festival has become one of the com. jobs.utah.gov/wi Trendlines 23
  • 24. county highlight | by lecia parks langston, economist W hen the decennial census was taken in 1900, Juab County’s Juab County population measured just over 10,000 individuals. In 2008, Juab County’s population was estimated at (drum roll, please)—just over 10,000 individuals. Of course, a lot of coming and going occurred in those 108 years. Juab County lost population as economic activity shifted to urban areas. The population low point was in 1970 (at about 4,600) and then slowly rebounded. The pace of growth has picked up in recent years Juab County Year-Over Change as population spilled outside the Wasatch in Nonfarm Jobs Front. 30% Recent Juab County economic activity has 25% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services. been overshadowed by the construction/ completion of the Currant Creek power plant. 20% Despite the employment ups and downs 15% associated with this major project (notice the chart’s 25-percent gain and 15-percent loss 10% within just 12 months), Juab County ended the recessionary year of 2008 with only a 5% 0.5-percent year-over employment loss. Plus, 0% the county actually showed construction and manufacturing industry employment -5% gains. -10% For more information about Juab County, -15% see http://jobs.utah.gov/jsp/wi/utalmis/ Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov gotoCounties.do 2006 2007 2008 24 July/August 2009
  • 25. The Summer Stimulus Internship Program Employers: Young Adults: Get extra help this summer at NO cost! Ages 18 to 24—Get a job this summer! • Get those “back burner” projects done • Work 32-40 hours a week •Give staff the opportunity to get supervisory • Various worksites throughout Utah high- experience lighting medical/health and green (environ- mental sensitive) job occupations •Provide local youth an opportunity to learn about your company—you may even find a • Must meet income guidelines and other permanent employee eligibility criteria For more information visit http://jobs.utah.gov/services/stimulus.asp jobs.utah.gov/wi Trendlines 25
  • 26. Utah Work/Life Awards 2009 Congratulations to the Winners and Finalists of the 2009 Awards! 2009 Winners: Micro (less than 50 employees) Brown and Caldwell Cirque Corporation Powerquip Corp. Q90 Corporation Statera Timeline for 2009 The Employers Council Nominations will open January 14, 2009 Applications are due March 25, 2009 Utah Foster Care Foundation Awards will be presented Summer 2009 The Utah Work/ Medium (50 – 500 employees) Access Development Life Awards ú Best Practices Forums ú Legacy Mentor Companies ú Tours of Award-Winning Companies Cirris Systems Corporation recognize and honor Equitable Life & Casualty Insurance Company Futura Industries companies andinformation, are go to jobs.utah.gov that For more click on Work/Life Awards, Goldenwest Credit Union or email worklife@utah.gov or call 801-526-4321 Marriott Vacation Club International Owner Services creating Work/Life Awards are presented by the The Utah exceptional Software Technology Group Department of Workforce Services / workplacesWork & Family Life O ce of and Spillman Technologies The Leavitt Group businesses by The MGIS Companies, Inc. The Pepsi Bottling Group effectively addressing ThomasArts employee work/life needs and striving to Large (more than 500 employees) 1-800 CONTACTS create and maintain a ARUP Laboratories CHG Healthcare Services, Inc. culture of equity and InterContinental Hotels Group Nicholas & Co., Inc. opportunity. TURN Community Services 2009 Finalists: Ace Disposal Ascent Construction, Inc. Barnes Aerospace Best Vinyl Bob Barker Company, Inc. Clearlink Comcast DoxTek, Inc. Employer Solutions Group Kids on the Move LaneLinks, Inc. MonaVie Mountain America Credit Union Namifiers, LLC Ralph L. Wadsworth Construction Company Snapp Conner PR WesTech Engineering Inc. Westminster College
  • 27. rate update | workforce information just April 2009 Changes From Last Unemployment Rates Year the . Utah Unemployment Rate 5.2 Up 1.9 points acts.. U.S. Unemployment Rate 8.9 % Up 3.9 points f Utah Nonfarm Jobs (000s) 1,219.1 Down 3.2 % U.S. Nonfarm Jobs (000s) 132,348.0 Down 3.8 % April 2009 Consumer Price Index Rates U.S. Consumer Price Index 213.2 Down 0.7% U.S. Producer Price Index 169.9 Down 3.7% April 2009 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates Beaver 5.0 % Box Elder 5.8 % Next Issue: Cache Carbon 4.0 % 6.1 % Watch for these features in our Daggett 4.3 % Davis 4.5 % Duchesne 6.3 % Emery 4.8% Garfield 8.3 % Grand 7.3 % Iron 6.3 % Juab 6.9 % Kane Millard 5.4 % 4.2 % Theme: Morgan 4.7 % Tourism, Hospitality & Piute Rich 4.5 % 4.3 % Recreation Salt Lake 5.1 % San Juan 8.0 % Sanpete 6.1 % County Highlight: Sevier 5.7 % Iron Summit 5.4 % Tooele 6.0 % Uintah Utah 6.0 % 4.8 % Occupation: Wasatch 5.9 % Police Officer Washington 6.9 % Wayne 5.5 % Weber 6.1% jobs.utah.gov/wi Trendlines 27