The document discusses different types of uncertainty in sustainability appraisals including risk, ambiguity, ignorance, and indeterminacy. It presents a framework for analyzing aspects of uncertainty and argues that cost-benefit analysis tends to treat all uncertainties as risks, neglecting other important aspects. While some uncertainties can be addressed with tools like risk assessment, other neglected aspects are better handled through approaches like scenarios, participatory modeling, and inclusive engagement.

1. Addressing Uncertainty, Ambiguity and Ignorance in Sustainability Appraisal Andy Stirling SPRU – science and technology policy research presentation to interdisciplinary workshop on 'Cost‐Benefit Analysis: Uncertainty, Discounting and the Sustainable Future’ Technical University Eindhoven, 12‐13 th April, 2010

3. 0.001 0.1 10 1000 externality’: c US /kWh (after Sundqvist et al , 2005) high SUSTAINABILITY low CBA delivers precise orderings of options coal oil gas nuclear hydro wind solar biomass ‘ Sound Science’ in CBA? – the energy sector example

4. 0.001 0.1 10 1000 coal oil gas nuclear hydro 36 wind solar biomass n = ‘ externality’: c US /kWh (after Sundqvist et al , 2005) minimum maximum 25% 75% high SUSTAINABILITY low CBA delivers precise orderings of options , but is sensitive to ‘framing’ ‘ Sound Science’ in CBA? – the energy sector example

10. acoustic noise marine debris aerial visibility effects marine hydrocarbon releases agricultural intensification marine life morbidity air quality mechanical hazards altered flow rates and patterns micro-climate effects ambient temperature change mutagenicity or teratogenicity aqueous radioactive pollution navigational hazards behavioural interference nitrogen oxide emissions carbon monoxide emissions occupational health catastrophic dam burst occupational safety catastrophic pollution potential particulate emissions or community disruption prompt public health impacts drainage disruption psychological trauma ecological or habitat disturbance radioactive emissions electromagnetic interference resource depletion elevated water levels road traffic endangered species impacts rural population impacts enhanced coastal erosion salinity change enshading or reflection sedimentation changes entrainment of aquatic biota soil acidification eutrophication soil erosion explosive or incendiary effects soil sterilisation fisheries interference soil structure loss chain residues soil toxification or contamination gaseous waste volume management solid waste volume management greenhouse gas emissions stratospheric ozone depletion hazard to bird flight sulphur oxide emissions metal releases thermal radiation effects hydrogen sulphide emissions toxic aerial emissions seismicity tritiated water emissions induced subsidence tropospheric ozone enhancement interference with migration turbidity changes land use change visual aesthetic offence latent human health effects volatile organic emissions liquid waste volume management water abstraction demand local ambient CO 2 /O 2 balance water quality effects Categories of ‘ environmental impact’ variously addressed in CBAs in OECD countries of electricity supply technologies (studies reviewed earlier)… Framing: ‘sustainability’ issues in CBA … even greater numbers of non-environmental aspects of sustainability (‘externalities’)

13. SALIENT POSSIBILITIES DEFINED POSSIBILITIES UNDERDEFINED Aspects of Incertitude – a heuristic framework

15. … many analytic schemes for problems deriving probabilities – in terms of: - source: context; data; model; expertise; - levels: statistical; scenarios; scientific; - nature: epistemic; ontological, normative; - technical: inputs; structure; parameters; - practical: variability; sensitivity; precision - locus: institutional, moral, legal, situation; … RIVM, van Asselt, de Marchi SALIENT POSSIBILITIES DEFINED RISK EMPIRICAL UNCERTAINTY intrinsic to data THEORETICAL UNCERTANTY inherent in science or models after: Collingridge, Faber, Funtowicz Keynes, Knight, O’Neill, Proops, Ravetz, Wynne… UNCERTAINTY not all relevant probabilities are known Aspects of Incertitude POSSIBILITIES UNDERDEFINED

16. RISK UNCERTAINTY AMBIGUITY constituting, bounding, partitioning or ordering of salient possibilities is unclear or contested POSSIBILITIES UNDERDEFINED empirical uncertainty theoretical uncertainty SALIENT POSSIBILITIES DEFINED after: Collingridge, Faber, Funtowicz Keynes, Knight, O’Neill, Proops, Ravetz, Wynne… Aspects of Incertitude IGNORANCE at least some salient possibilities are indeterminate or indeterminable

18. RISK UNCERTAINTY IGNORANCE AMBIGUITY empirical uncertainty theoretical uncertainty UNCHARACTERISABILITY problematic definition, bounding or partitioning NONCOMPARABILITY problematic basis for comparison INCOMMENSURABILITY problematic aggregate relative orderings UNQUANTIFIABILITY problematic aggregate cardinal ratios &increments SALIENT POSSIBILITIES DEFINED after: Collingridge, Faber, Funtowicz Keynes, Knight, O’Neill, Proops, Ravetz, Wynne… Aspects of Incertitude POSSIBILITIES UNDERDEFINED

20. only rarely discussed… but then tends to be in terms of ‘reducibility’. This assumes that knowledge is always additive and increased by research. But this not always true (eg: CFCs, TSEs, EDCs) RISK UNCERTAINTY IGNORANCE AMBIGUITY uncharact-erisability noncom-parability ordinal inco-mensurability cardinal un-quantifiability empirical uncertainty theoretical uncertainty SALIENT POSSIBILITIES DEFINED after: Collingridge, Faber, Funtowicz Keynes, Knight, O’Neill, Proops, Ravetz, Wynne… OPEN closed ACCESSIBLE INACCESSIBLE Aspects of Incertitude POSSIBILITIES UNDERDEFINED

21. eg: CFCs eg: TSEs; EDCs RISK UNCERTAINTY IGNORANCE AMBIGUITY uncharact-erisability noncom-parability ordinal inco-mensurability cardinal un-quantifiability empirical uncertainty theoretical uncertainty INSTITUTIONAL IGNORANCE salient knowledges available, but not accounted for in policy SOCIETAL IGNORANCE knowledges accessible, but not yet available SALIENT POSSIBILITIES DEFINED after: Collingridge, Faber, Funtowicz Keynes, Knight, O’Neill, Proops, Ravetz, Wynne… OPEN closed ACCESSIBLE INACCESSIBLE Aspects of Incertitude POSSIBILITIES UNDERDEFINED

22. RISK UNCERTAINTY institutional ignorance societal ignorance AMBIGUITY uncharact-erisability noncom-parability ordinal inco-mensurability cardinal un-quantifiability empirical uncertainty theoretical uncertainty PHENOMENOLOGICAL IGNORANCE intrinsic to nature of world EPISTEMIC IGNORANCE intrinsic to nature of understanding SALIENT POSSIBILITIES DEFINED after: Collingridge, Faber, Funtowicz Keynes, Knight, O’Neill, Proops, Ravetz, Wynne… IGNORANCE INACCESSIBLE OPEN closed ACCESSIBLE Aspects of Incertitude POSSIBILITIES UNDERDEFINED

23. RISK UNCERTAINTY IGNORANCE institutional ignorance societal ignorance AMBIGUITY EPISTEMIC PHENOMENOLOGICAL uncharact-erisability noncom-parability ordinal inco-mensurability cardinal un-quantifiability empirical uncertainty theoretical uncertainty INDETERMINACY eg: genotypic change after: Collingridge, Faber, Funtowicz Keynes, Knight, O’Neill, Proops, Ravetz, Wynne… INACCESSIBLE OPEN closed ACCESSIBLE Aspects of Incertitude DETERMISTIC CHAOS eg: butterfly effect SALIENT POSSIBILITIES DEFINED POSSIBILITIES UNDERDEFINED

24. RISK UNCERTAINTY IGNORANCE institutional ignorance societal ignorance indeter-minacy deterministic chaos AMBIGUITY EPISTEMIC PHENOMENOLOGICAL uncharact-erisability noncom-parability ordinal inco-mensurability cardinal un-quantifiability empirical uncertainty theoretical uncertainty HERMENEUTIC IGNORANCE intrinsic to language AXIOMATIC IGNORANCE inherent in assumptions LOGICAL IGNORANCE incomplete logic system after: Collingridge, Faber, Funtowicz Keynes, Knight, O’Neill, Proops, Ravetz, Wynne… OPEN closed INACCESSIBLE ACCESSIBLE Aspects of Incertitude SALIENT POSSIBILITIES DEFINED POSSIBILITIES UNDERDEFINED

25. after: Collingridge, Faber, Funtowicz Keynes, Knight, O’Neill, Proops, Ravetz, Wynne… UNCERTAINTY IGNORANCE institutional ignorance societal ignorance indeter-minacy deterministic chaos hermeneutic ignorance axiomatic ignorance logical ignorance AMBIGUITY POSSIBILITIES UNDERDEFINED EPISTEMIC PHENOMENOLOGICAL uncharact-erisability noncom-parability ordinal inco-mensurability cardinal un-quantifiability empirical uncertainty theoretical uncertainty SALIENT POSSIBILITIES DEFINED CBA TENDS TO TREAT ALL INCERTITUDE (IF AT ALL) AS RISK RISK INACCESSIBLE ACCESSIBLE OPEN closed Aspects of Incertitude

26. POSSIBILITIES UNDERDEFINED SALIENT POSSIBILITIES DEFINED IGNORANCE after: Collingridge, Faber, Funtowicz Keynes, Knight, O’Neill, Proops, Ravetz, Wynne… BUT NEGLECTED ASPECTS CAN ALSO BE EFFECTIVELY ADDRESSED inaccessible ACCESSIBLE OPEN RISK UNCERTAINTY AMBIGUITY humility and transparency closed institutional ignorance societal ignorance research and monitoring transdisciplinary learning precautionary appraisal participatory deliberation Aspects of Incertitude reductive aggregation

27. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods knowledge about possibilities some specific, concrete practical lessons for CBA Responses to Incertitude

28. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods knowledge about possibilities RISK UNCERTAINTY AMBIGUITY IGNORANCE risk assessment , cost-benefit analysis decision theory optimising models some specific, concrete practical lessons for CBA Responses to Incertitude

29. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods AMBIGUITY IGNORANCE RISK UNCERTAINTY risk assessment , cost-benefit analysis decision theory optimising models uncertainty heuristics interval analysis sensitivity testing some specific, concrete practical lessons for CBA Responses to Incertitude knowledge about possibilities

30. scenarios / backcasting interactive modeling mapping / Q-methods participatory deliberation unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods AMBIGUITY IGNORANCE RISK UNCERTAINTY risk assessment , cost-benefit analysis decision theory optimising models uncertainty heuristics interval analysis sensitivity testing some specific, concrete practical lessons for CBA Responses to Incertitude knowledge about possibilities

31. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods AMBIGUITY IGNORANCE RISK UNCERTAINTY risk assessment , cost-benefit analysis decision theory optimising models uncertainty heuristics interval analysis sensitivity testing scenarios / backcasting interactive modeling mapping / Q-methods inclusive engagement monitor, surveil, research diversity, flexibility, learning resilience, adaptability some specific, concrete practical lessons for CBA Responses to Incertitude knowledge about possibilities

32. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods knowledge about possibilities RISK UNCERTAINTY AMBIGUITY decision rules aggregative analysis deliberative process political closure reductive modeling stochastic reasoning rules of thumb insurance ` evidence-basing agenda-setting horizon scanning transdisciplinarity liability law harm definitions indicators / metrics institutional remits ‘ Reductive aggregation’ presents powerful means to justify decisions This ‘closing down’ around risk is Beck’s “organised irresponsibility” Institutional Pressures for Closure IGNORANCE

33. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods Precaution and Participation as Analytical Rigour PRECAUTIONARY APPRAISAL PARTICIPATORY DELIBERATION REDUCTIVE AGGREGATION RISK UNCERTAINTY AMBIGUITY IGNORANCE knowledge about possibilities HUMILITY, LEARNING, ENQUIRY TRANSDISCIPLINARY REFLEXIVITY AND RIGOUR

35. organic environmental intensive GM + labelling GM + monitoring GM + voluntary controls low sustainability high ‘ Mapping’ Key Uncertainties in Sustainability Appraisal Divergent expert views of risks and benefits of different agricultural strategies elicited using multicriteria mapping method in Unillever-sponsored research (2003) A Practical Example

36. organic environmental intensive GM + labelling GM + monitoring GM + voluntary controls organic environmental intensive GM + labelling GM + monitoring GM + voluntary controls low sustainability high ‘ Mapping’ Key Uncertainties in Sustainability Appraisal Divergent expert views of risks and benefits of different agricultural strategies elicited using multicriteria mapping method in Unillever-sponsored research (2003) A Practical Example GOVERNMENT

37. organic environmental intensive GM + labelling GM + monitoring GM + voluntary controls organic environmental intensive GM + labelling GM + monitoring GM + voluntary controls ‘ Mapping’ Key Uncertainties in Sustainability Appraisal Divergent expert views of risks and benefits of different agricultural strategies elicited using multicriteria mapping method in Unillever-sponsored research (2003) A Practical Example low sustainability high GOVERNMENT INDUSTRY

38. organic environmental intensive GM + labelling GM + monitoring GM + voluntary controls GOVERNMENT INDUSTRY organic environmental intensive GM + labelling GM + monitoring GM + voluntary controls PUBLIC INTEREST ‘ Mapping’ Key Uncertainties in Sustainability Appraisal Divergent expert views of risks and benefits of different agricultural strategies elicited using multicriteria mapping method in Unillever-sponsored research (2003) A Practical Example low sustainability high