SlideShare une entreprise Scribd logo
1  sur  41
Télécharger pour lire hors ligne
Ambiguous Evidence:

implications of uncertainty for science policy


        seminar given at National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP),
              Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT),
                                                               Tokyo, 29th August 2012

                                                                Andy Stirling
                                                        SPRU & STEPS Centre
Conventional Technology Policy

“you can’t stop progress” …
                            - The Economist
                                                       PROGRESS
“we'll restore science to its rightful place”…
                  `         - President Obama

“Our hope … relies on scientific and
technological progress”   - Premier Wen Jiabao


“One can not impede scientific progress.”
                            - President Ahmadinejad
                                                       TECHNOLOGY
all innovation is progress…

 Lisbon Strategy for: “pro-innovation action”
                           - EU Council of Ministers

 “we need more pro-innovation policies”
                                - PM Gordon Brown

 “… the Government’s strategy is …
  pro-innovation”           - PM David Cameron
Conventional Technology Policy


Lord Alec Broers, President, RAEng               PROGRESS
…“history is a race to advance technology”

Technology:
“will determine the future of the human race’”

The challenge of government:
                                                 TECHNOLOGY
“to strive to stay in the race”…


The role of the public:
“to give technology the status it deserves”…
Conventional Technology Policy


                           PROGRESS




                           TECHNOLOGY
Conventional Technology Policy


                                    PROGRESS




                                    TECHNOLOGY

Treats innovation as homogeneous:     no distinctions … no
alternatives…                         no politics    … no choice
!
Conventional Technology Policy


                                        PROGRESS




                                       TECHNOLOGY


Treats innovation as homogeneous:   no distinctions … no alternatives …
                                    no politics     … no choice !
Scope for debate restricted to:     yes or no?     … how much?
                                    how fast?      … who leads?
Conventional Technology Policy


                                         PROGRESS




                                        TECHNOLOGY


Treats innovation as homogeneous:    no distinctions … no alternatives …
                                     no politics     … no choice !
Scope for debate restricted to:      yes or no?    … how much?
                                     how fast?’    … who leads?
Seriously neglects questions over:   which way?     …what alternatives?
                                     says who?      …why?
Technological Progress is Evolutionary

For instance...         “sustainable energy”




Not all that is conceivable, feasible, viable – will be fully realisable
Technological Progress
Intended and unintended processes and power ‘close down’ pathways




social       shaping (Bijker, 85)        co-construction (Misa, 03)
studies:     expectations (Brown, 03)    imaginations (Jasanoff, 05)
Technological Progress
Intended and unintended processes and power ‘close down’ pathways




history:       contingency (Mokyr, 92)       momentum (Hughes 83)
                       path-dependence (David, 85) path creation
(Karnoe, 01)
Technological Progress
Intended and unintended processes and power ‘close down’ pathways




philosophy:   autonomy (Winner, 77)      closure (Feenberg, 91)
/politics     entrapment (Walker, 01)    alignment (Geels, 02)
Technological Progress
Intended and unintended processes and power ‘close down’ pathways




economics:   homeostasis (Sahal, 85)             lock-in (Arthur, 89)
                   regimes (Nelson & Winter, 77) trajectories (Dosi,
82)
‘Sound Science’ in Policy and Regulation

on public health:
“… sound science … science-based decisions”
                         - UN WHO DG Margaret Chan
on genetic modification:
“… this government's approach is to make
  decisions … on the basis of sound science”
                - former UK Prime Minister, Tony Blair
on chemicals:
“ …sound science will be the basis of the
Commission's legislative proposal…”
           - EC RTD Commissioner, Philippe Busquin
on energy:
“[n]ow is the right time for a cool-headed,
evidence based assessment … I want to
sweep away historic prejudice and put in its
place evidence and science”
           former UK Energy Minister Malcolm Wicks


Justification: from political ‘problems’ to technical ‘puzzles’
Ambiguity in Evidence
Energy technologies: mature, sophisticated comparative analysis…
Ambiguity in Evidence
Energy technologies: mature, sophisticated comparative analysis…



coal
oil
gas
nuclear
hydro
wind
solar
biomass

                0.001           0.1                    10                     1000
          low    RISK   high   externality’: cUS/kWh (after Sundqvist et al, 2005)
Ambiguity in Evidence
Energy technologies: mature, sophisticated comparative analysis…

                                                                                      n=
coal
oil
gas
            minimum                25%          75%          maximum
nuclear                                                                               21
hydro
wind
solar
biomass

                0.001            0.1                    10                     1000
          low    RISK   high   ‘externality’: cUS/kWh (after Sundqvist et al, 2005)
Ambiguity in Evidence
Energy technologies: mature, sophisticated comparative analysis…

                                                                   n=
coal                                                               36
oil                                                                20
gas                                                                31
nuclear                                                            21
hydro                                                              16
wind                                                               18
solar                                                              11
biomass                                                            22
Knowing Knowledge

Conventional ‘risk practices’ suppress our ‘knowledge about knowledge’
Knowing Knowledge

Conventional expert practices suppress our ‘knowledge about knowledge’

marginalises, elides, ignores, (often) denies radical openness of ‘incertitude’:

- insufficiency:              knowledge efficacy is not normative basis for action
  . Aristotle, Kant, Habermas know-how is less important than know-why

                            – eg: how to apply neuroscience?
Knowing Knowledge

Conventional expert practices suppress our ‘knowledge about knowledge’

marginalises, elides, ignores and (often) denies realities of knowledge:

- insufficiency:            knowledge efficacy is not normative basis for action

- incompleteness:             knowledge enabling utility is limited on wider effects
   . Lao Tzu, Socrates, Keynes       ‘unknowns’ as important as ‘knowns’

                            – eg: unexpected
                                  mechanisms
                                  in nanohealth
                                  technologies
Knowing Knowledge

Conventional expert practices suppress our ‘knowledge about knowledge’

marginalises, elides, ignores and (often) denies realities of knowledge:

- insufficiency:              knowledge efficacy is not normative basis for action

- incompleteness:             knowledge enabling utility is limited on wider effects

- indeterminacy:              effective knowledge does not preclude surprise
. Gödel, Dosi, Collingridge   ”known knowns” foster hubris


                              – eg: dangers of thinking we know
                                   halogenated hydrocarbons,
                                   CFCs and the ozone hole
                                   endocrine disruptors
                                   methyl tertbutyl ether
Knowing Knowledge

Conventional expert practices suppress our ‘knowledge about knowledge’

marginalises, elides, ignores and (often) denies realities of knowledge:

- insufficiency:           knowledge efficacy is not normative basis for action

- incompleteness:          knowledge is always limited as a basis for action

- indeterminacy:           effective knowledge does not preclude surprise

- ‘inversity’:            increased knowledge can increase
ignorance . Einstein, Ravetz, Beck…      area / perimeter of known


                           – nonlinear
                             dynamics
                             of climate
                             and oceans
Knowing Knowledge

Conventional expert practices suppress our ‘knowledge about knowledge’

marginalises, elides, ignores and (often) denies realities of knowledge:

- insufficiency:           knowledge efficacy is not normative basis for action

- incompleteness:          knowledge is always limited as a basis for action

- indeterminacy :          effective knowledge does not preclude surprise

- ‘inversity’:             increased knowledge can increase ignorance

- intractability:          knowledge-commitments compound vulnerability
  . Ellul, Wynne, Tenner   not existence but exposure to unknown


                           eg: nuclear
                           dependency
Knowing Knowledge

Conventional expert practices suppress our ‘knowledge about knowledge’

marginalises, elides, ignores and (often) denies realities of knowledge:

- insufficiency:           knowledge efficacy is not normative basis for action

- incompleteness:          knowledge is always limited as a basis for action

- indeterminacy :          effective knowledge does not preclude surprise

- ‘inversity’:             increased knowledge can increase ignorance

- intractability:          knowledge-commitments compound vulnerability

- incommensurability:   knowledges are plural and often
conflicting . Kuhn, Arrow, Jasanoff…   knowledge often not linear / additive
                           - eg: agronomy, ecology, soil science,
                             molecular biology on GM
Knowing Knowledge

Conventional expert practices suppress our ‘knowledge about knowledge’

marginalises, elides, ignores and (often) denies realities of knowledge:

- insufficiency:           knowledge efficacy is not normative basis for action

- incompleteness:          knowledge is always limited as a basis for action

- indeterminacy:           effective knowledge does not preclude surprise

- ‘inversity’:             increased knowledge can increase ignorance

- intractability:          knowledge-commitments compound vulnerability

- incommensurability:      knowledges are plural and often conflicting


representing incomplete knowledge as expert ‘risk’ is deeply problematic
Beyond Risk
contrasting aspects of ‘incertitude’




   unproblematic       RISK
                       engineered components
                       closed deterministic
                       systems high frequency
  knowledge            incidents familiar contexts
  about
                                                INCERTITUDE
  likelihoods

                       open dynamic systems
                       low frequency events
                       human factors
                       changing contexts

    problematic        UNCERTAINTY
            - Socrates, Lao Tzu, Knight, Keynes, Shackle, Collingridge, Smithson, Ravetz, Wynne ...
Beyond Risk
contrasting aspects of ‘incertitude’

                                   knowledge about possibilities
                       unproblematic                                           problematic

   unproblematic       RISK                                                   AMBIGUITY
                       engineered components                        defining pros & cons
                       closed deterministic                      contrasting impacts
                       systems high frequency                       diverse perspectives
  knowledge            incidents familiar contexts                    alternative options
  about
                                                INCERTITUDE
  likelihoods

                       open dynamic systems                     novel agents or vectors
                       low frequency events                   surprising conditions
                       human factors                          new alternatives
                       changing contexts                                   wilful blinkers

    problematic        UNCERTAINTY                                          IGNORANCE
            - Socrates, Lao Tzu, Knight, Keynes, Shackle, Collingridge, Smithson, Ravetz, Wynne ...
Pressures for Closure
institutional drivers of risk assessment

                             knowledge about possibilities
                    unproblematic                                    problematic

   unproblematic    RISK                                            AMBIGUITY
                                          aggregative analysis
                                          patronage, pressure
                                          political closure

  knowledge
  about
                   insurance limits                              ` science-based
                   reductive models                                policy
  likelihoods      stochastic reasoning                          institutional
                                                                 remits
                                                                 political
                                          liability protection   culture
                                          harm definitions
                                          indicators / metrics
    problematic     UNCERTAINTY                                    IGNORANCE
 risk focus is shaped by power – Beck’s “organised irresponsibility”
Methods for ‘Opening Up’
precaution and participation are about rigour

                               knowledge about possibilities
                    unproblematic                           problematic

   unproblematic    RISK                                   AMBIGUITY
                    aggregated probabilities
                    optimisation algorithms
                    synthetic decision trees
                       Delphi / Foresight
  knowledge         predictive modelling
  about
  likelihoods




    problematic     UNCERTAINTY                           IGNORANCE
                   precautionary methods ‘open up’ appreciation of incertitude
Methods for ‘Opening Up’
precaution and participation are about rigour

                               knowledge about possibilities
                    unproblematic                           problematic

   unproblematic    RISK                                   AMBIGUITY
                    aggregated probabilities
                      optimisation algorithms
                    synthetic decision trees
                          Delphi / Foresight
  knowledge           predictive modelling
  about
  likelihoods
                    burden of evidence
                    onus of persuasion
                    uncertainty factors
                    decision heuristics
                    interval analysis
                    sensitivity testing

    problematic     UNCERTAINTY                           IGNORANCE
                   precautionary methods ‘open up’ appreciation of incertitude
Methods for ‘Opening Up’
precaution and participation are about rigour

                               knowledge about possibilities
                    unproblematic                                 problematic

   unproblematic    RISK                                         AMBIGUITY
                    aggregated probabilities    scenarios / backcasting
                    optimisation algorithms      interactive modelling
                    synthetic decision trees       mapping / Q-methods
                       Delphi / Foresight      participatory deliberation
  knowledge         predictive modelling         democratic procedures
  about
  likelihoods
                    burden of evidence
                    onus of persuasion
                    uncertainty factors
                    decision heuristics
                    interval analysis
                    sensitivity testing

    problematic     UNCERTAINTY                                 IGNORANCE
                   precautionary methods ‘open up’ appreciation of incertitude
Methods for ‘Opening Up’
precaution and participation are about rigour

                               knowledge about possibilities
                    unproblematic                                    problematic

   unproblematic    RISK                                           AMBIGUITY
                    aggregated probabilities     scenarios / backcasting
                    optimisation algorithms       interactive modelling
                    synthetic decision trees        mapping / Q-methods
                       Delphi / Foresight        participatory deliberation
  knowledge         predictive modelling          democratic procedures
  about
  likelihoods
                    burden of evidence         responsive civic research
                    onus of persuasion               curiosity monitoring,
                    uncertainty factors         evidentiary presumptions
                    decision heuristics            flexibility, reversibility
                    interval analysis                 diversity, resilience,
                    sensitivity testing               agility, adaptability

    problematic     UNCERTAINTY                                   IGNORANCE
                   precautionary methods ‘open up’ appreciation of incertitude
‘Opening Up’ Incertitude
precaution and participation are about rigour

                                   knowledge about possibilities
                     unproblematic                                     problematic

   unproblematic     RISK                                             AMBIGUITY
                     definitive                                    participatory
                     prescription                                   deliberation
  knowledge
                      Options




  about
  likelihoods                   safety       humility




                                                         Options
                                           reflexivity

                     precautionary                             adaptive
                                                                sustainability

                     appraisal                                          learning
    problematic      UNCERTAINTY                                     IGNORANCE
    ‘opening up’: options, issues, approaches, possibilities, perspectives
Plural Conditional Advice
erent agricultural strategies
ptions of selection of UK expert policy advisers



     organic
     environmental
     intensive
     GM + labelling
     GM + monitoring
     GM + voluntary controls
Plural Conditional Advice
erent agricultural strategies
ptions of selection of UK expert policy advisers



     organic
     environmental
     intensive
     GM + labelling
     GM + monitoring
     GM + voluntary controls




                           high   risk             low
Plural Conditional Advice
erent agricultural strategies
ptions of selection of UK expert policy advisers

                                 GOVERNMENT

     organic
     environmental
     intensive
     GM + labelling
     GM + monitoring
     GM + voluntary controls




    organic
    environmental
    intensive
    GM + labelling
    GM + monitoring
    GM + voluntary controls



                              high       risk      low
Plural Conditional Advice
erent agricultural strategies
ptions of selection of UK expert policy advisers

                                 GOVERNMENT     INDUSTRY

     organic
     environmental
     intensive
     GM + labelling
     GM + monitoring
     GM + voluntary controls




    organic
    environmental
    intensive
    GM + labelling
    GM + monitoring
    GM + voluntary controls



                              high       risk      low
Plural Conditional Advice
erent agricultural strategies
ptions of selection of UK expert policy advisers

                                 GOVERNMENT     INDUSTRY   PUBLIC INTEREST

     organic
     environmental
     intensive
     GM + labelling
     GM + monitoring
     GM + voluntary controls




    organic
    environmental
    intensive
    GM + labelling
    GM + monitoring
    GM + voluntary controls



                              high       risk      low
S12h tokyo 29 august nistep
‘Opening Up’ Technology Governance

         privileged
         POSSIBLE
          visions                        technological ‘lock-in’        innovation union
        PATHWAYS
                                                                      knowledge economy
     multiple feasible
     Innovation trajectories                                              IIIIII

                                                                        €
                                                                            $
narrow scope                                                              ‘closed down’
‘independent’ research                     restricted              ‘sound scientific advice’
‘pro-innovation’ culture                  appreciation              ‘evidence based’ policy
                                          institutionalised         pressures for justification
presumed benefits                                                        force unitary ‘‘expert’
                               Options




                                            technical risk
case-by-case focus                           assessment                         prescriptions
narrow remits
aggregated attention                                                single ‘best’ / ‘optimal’ /
regulatory capture                             risk                          most ‘legitimate’
technocratic procedures                                                               decisions
‘Opening Up’ Technology Governance
                         diversity in technology
                                portfolios
            POSSIBLE
            diverse                                        knowledge
           PATHWAYS
            pathways                                       democracy
                                                               
                                                           
                                                          IIIIII
                                                           IIIIII
                                                                  
                          help catalyse:

                                                            $
                                                            $
                                                                   
                         democratic accountability
                                                                  
                         context sensitivity                      
                             social robustness                 

broad-based                                            ‘opening up’ politics of
evidence as choice                    choice
                                                                   innovation
                                    discourse
extended participation
                                                     ‘best option’ depends on:
transdisciplinary
                          Options




                                                         contexts, perspectives,
deliberation
                                                        sensitivities, scenarios,
explicit priorities                              - ‘plural conditional’
uncertainties                   Sustainability           public policy advice
multiple options

Contenu connexe

Similaire à S12h tokyo 29 august nistep

Andy Stirling: Pathways to Sustainable Energy: issues of power, diversity an...
Andy Stirling: Pathways to Sustainable Energy:issues of power, diversity an...Andy Stirling: Pathways to Sustainable Energy:issues of power, diversity an...
Andy Stirling: Pathways to Sustainable Energy: issues of power, diversity an...STEPS Centre
 
Andy Stirling on Precaution To Robustness
Andy Stirling on Precaution To RobustnessAndy Stirling on Precaution To Robustness
Andy Stirling on Precaution To RobustnessSTEPS Centre
 
Brian Wynne - Reconciling top-down and bottom-up uncertainties in knowledge, ...
Brian Wynne - Reconciling top-down and bottom-up uncertainties in knowledge, ...Brian Wynne - Reconciling top-down and bottom-up uncertainties in knowledge, ...
Brian Wynne - Reconciling top-down and bottom-up uncertainties in knowledge, ...STEPS Centre
 
Tech 55+ 20 feb15
Tech 55+ 20 feb15Tech 55+ 20 feb15
Tech 55+ 20 feb15davidurpani
 
Different forms of expertise in democratising technological cultures.
Different forms of expertise in democratising technological cultures.Different forms of expertise in democratising technological cultures.
Different forms of expertise in democratising technological cultures.Fondazione Giannino Bassetti
 
Hilary sutcliffe presentation_11_oct_places
Hilary sutcliffe presentation_11_oct_placesHilary sutcliffe presentation_11_oct_places
Hilary sutcliffe presentation_11_oct_placesGilles Grenot
 
Alain-Michael Boudet / Workshop 1 Emergence Forum Barcelona
Alain-Michael Boudet / Workshop 1 Emergence Forum BarcelonaAlain-Michael Boudet / Workshop 1 Emergence Forum Barcelona
Alain-Michael Boudet / Workshop 1 Emergence Forum BarcelonaBiocat, BioRegion of Catalonia
 
Opening up the politics of justification in maths for policy: power and uncer...
Opening up the politics of justification in maths for policy: power and uncer...Opening up the politics of justification in maths for policy: power and uncer...
Opening up the politics of justification in maths for policy: power and uncer...STEPS Centre
 
Andy Stirling - Royal Society Policy Lab
Andy Stirling - Royal Society Policy Lab Andy Stirling - Royal Society Policy Lab
Andy Stirling - Royal Society Policy Lab STEPS Centre
 
Universal Design for Learning CEC 2009 Session #1
Universal Design for Learning CEC 2009 Session #1Universal Design for Learning CEC 2009 Session #1
Universal Design for Learning CEC 2009 Session #1Skip Stahl
 
Fred størseth. new strains of society hidden, dynamic and emergent vulnerabil...
Fred størseth. new strains of society hidden, dynamic and emergent vulnerabil...Fred størseth. new strains of society hidden, dynamic and emergent vulnerabil...
Fred størseth. new strains of society hidden, dynamic and emergent vulnerabil...NordForsk
 
The Impact of Futures Technology
The Impact of Futures TechnologyThe Impact of Futures Technology
The Impact of Futures TechnologyLisa Faulkner
 
Andy Stirling: From Knowledge Economy to Innovation Democracy: collective act...
Andy Stirling: From Knowledge Economy to Innovation Democracy: collective act...Andy Stirling: From Knowledge Economy to Innovation Democracy: collective act...
Andy Stirling: From Knowledge Economy to Innovation Democracy: collective act...STEPS Centre
 
Victorvan Rij Wildcards Hes Moskou December2011
Victorvan Rij Wildcards Hes Moskou December2011Victorvan Rij Wildcards Hes Moskou December2011
Victorvan Rij Wildcards Hes Moskou December2011Victor Van Rij
 
Innovation, Sustainability, Development: A New Manifesto by Adrian Ely
Innovation, Sustainability, Development: A New Manifesto by Adrian ElyInnovation, Sustainability, Development: A New Manifesto by Adrian Ely
Innovation, Sustainability, Development: A New Manifesto by Adrian ElySTEPS Centre
 
From risk regulation to innovation democracy
From risk regulation to innovation democracyFrom risk regulation to innovation democracy
From risk regulation to innovation democracyEFSA EU
 
Using and Developing Models for Epidemic Infectious Disease Policy – Some exa...
Using and Developing Models for Epidemic Infectious Disease Policy – Some exa...Using and Developing Models for Epidemic Infectious Disease Policy – Some exa...
Using and Developing Models for Epidemic Infectious Disease Policy – Some exa...mliebenrood
 
Andy Stirling - nexus methods (RGS 2016)
Andy Stirling - nexus methods (RGS 2016)Andy Stirling - nexus methods (RGS 2016)
Andy Stirling - nexus methods (RGS 2016)STEPS Centre
 
Paper no.205 Technoculture and Risk
Paper no.205 Technoculture and RiskPaper no.205 Technoculture and Risk
Paper no.205 Technoculture and RiskRiddhiRathod31
 

Similaire à S12h tokyo 29 august nistep (20)

Andy Stirling: Pathways to Sustainable Energy: issues of power, diversity an...
Andy Stirling: Pathways to Sustainable Energy:issues of power, diversity an...Andy Stirling: Pathways to Sustainable Energy:issues of power, diversity an...
Andy Stirling: Pathways to Sustainable Energy: issues of power, diversity an...
 
Andy Stirling on Precaution To Robustness
Andy Stirling on Precaution To RobustnessAndy Stirling on Precaution To Robustness
Andy Stirling on Precaution To Robustness
 
Brian Wynne - Reconciling top-down and bottom-up uncertainties in knowledge, ...
Brian Wynne - Reconciling top-down and bottom-up uncertainties in knowledge, ...Brian Wynne - Reconciling top-down and bottom-up uncertainties in knowledge, ...
Brian Wynne - Reconciling top-down and bottom-up uncertainties in knowledge, ...
 
Tech 55+ 20 feb15
Tech 55+ 20 feb15Tech 55+ 20 feb15
Tech 55+ 20 feb15
 
Different forms of expertise in democratising technological cultures.
Different forms of expertise in democratising technological cultures.Different forms of expertise in democratising technological cultures.
Different forms of expertise in democratising technological cultures.
 
Hilary sutcliffe presentation_11_oct_places
Hilary sutcliffe presentation_11_oct_placesHilary sutcliffe presentation_11_oct_places
Hilary sutcliffe presentation_11_oct_places
 
Alain-Michael Boudet / Workshop 1 Emergence Forum Barcelona
Alain-Michael Boudet / Workshop 1 Emergence Forum BarcelonaAlain-Michael Boudet / Workshop 1 Emergence Forum Barcelona
Alain-Michael Boudet / Workshop 1 Emergence Forum Barcelona
 
Opening up the politics of justification in maths for policy: power and uncer...
Opening up the politics of justification in maths for policy: power and uncer...Opening up the politics of justification in maths for policy: power and uncer...
Opening up the politics of justification in maths for policy: power and uncer...
 
Andy Stirling - Royal Society Policy Lab
Andy Stirling - Royal Society Policy Lab Andy Stirling - Royal Society Policy Lab
Andy Stirling - Royal Society Policy Lab
 
Universal Design for Learning CEC 2009 Session #1
Universal Design for Learning CEC 2009 Session #1Universal Design for Learning CEC 2009 Session #1
Universal Design for Learning CEC 2009 Session #1
 
Fred størseth. new strains of society hidden, dynamic and emergent vulnerabil...
Fred størseth. new strains of society hidden, dynamic and emergent vulnerabil...Fred størseth. new strains of society hidden, dynamic and emergent vulnerabil...
Fred størseth. new strains of society hidden, dynamic and emergent vulnerabil...
 
The Impact of Futures Technology
The Impact of Futures TechnologyThe Impact of Futures Technology
The Impact of Futures Technology
 
Andy Stirling: From Knowledge Economy to Innovation Democracy: collective act...
Andy Stirling: From Knowledge Economy to Innovation Democracy: collective act...Andy Stirling: From Knowledge Economy to Innovation Democracy: collective act...
Andy Stirling: From Knowledge Economy to Innovation Democracy: collective act...
 
Victorvan Rij Wildcards Hes Moskou December2011
Victorvan Rij Wildcards Hes Moskou December2011Victorvan Rij Wildcards Hes Moskou December2011
Victorvan Rij Wildcards Hes Moskou December2011
 
Innovation, Sustainability, Development: A New Manifesto by Adrian Ely
Innovation, Sustainability, Development: A New Manifesto by Adrian ElyInnovation, Sustainability, Development: A New Manifesto by Adrian Ely
Innovation, Sustainability, Development: A New Manifesto by Adrian Ely
 
From risk regulation to innovation democracy
From risk regulation to innovation democracyFrom risk regulation to innovation democracy
From risk regulation to innovation democracy
 
Using and Developing Models for Epidemic Infectious Disease Policy – Some exa...
Using and Developing Models for Epidemic Infectious Disease Policy – Some exa...Using and Developing Models for Epidemic Infectious Disease Policy – Some exa...
Using and Developing Models for Epidemic Infectious Disease Policy – Some exa...
 
The Next Thirty Years
The Next Thirty YearsThe Next Thirty Years
The Next Thirty Years
 
Andy Stirling - nexus methods (RGS 2016)
Andy Stirling - nexus methods (RGS 2016)Andy Stirling - nexus methods (RGS 2016)
Andy Stirling - nexus methods (RGS 2016)
 
Paper no.205 Technoculture and Risk
Paper no.205 Technoculture and RiskPaper no.205 Technoculture and Risk
Paper no.205 Technoculture and Risk
 

Plus de STEPS Centre

Steps methods #7 illustrative methods
Steps methods #7 illustrative methodsSteps methods #7 illustrative methods
Steps methods #7 illustrative methodsSTEPS Centre
 
TRANSFORMING IMAGINATIONS? Multiple dimensionalities and temporalities in tra...
TRANSFORMING IMAGINATIONS? Multiple dimensionalities and temporalities in tra...TRANSFORMING IMAGINATIONS? Multiple dimensionalities and temporalities in tra...
TRANSFORMING IMAGINATIONS? Multiple dimensionalities and temporalities in tra...STEPS Centre
 
Coloniality in Transformation: decolonising methods for activist scholarship ...
Coloniality in Transformation: decolonising methods for activist scholarship ...Coloniality in Transformation: decolonising methods for activist scholarship ...
Coloniality in Transformation: decolonising methods for activist scholarship ...STEPS Centre
 
Discussion: The Future of the World is Mobile - Giorgia Giovannetti
Discussion: The Future of the World is Mobile - Giorgia GiovannettiDiscussion: The Future of the World is Mobile - Giorgia Giovannetti
Discussion: The Future of the World is Mobile - Giorgia GiovannettiSTEPS Centre
 
Interfacing pastoral movements and modern mobilities
Interfacing pastoral movements and modern mobilitiesInterfacing pastoral movements and modern mobilities
Interfacing pastoral movements and modern mobilitiesSTEPS Centre
 
Reconceiving migration through the study of pastoral mobility
Reconceiving migration through the study of pastoral mobilityReconceiving migration through the study of pastoral mobility
Reconceiving migration through the study of pastoral mobilitySTEPS Centre
 
Bringing moral economy into the study of land deals: reflections from Madagascar
Bringing moral economy into the study of land deals: reflections from MadagascarBringing moral economy into the study of land deals: reflections from Madagascar
Bringing moral economy into the study of land deals: reflections from MadagascarSTEPS Centre
 
Agency and social-ecological system (SES) pathways: the Transformation Lab in...
Agency and social-ecological system (SES) pathways: the Transformation Lab in...Agency and social-ecological system (SES) pathways: the Transformation Lab in...
Agency and social-ecological system (SES) pathways: the Transformation Lab in...STEPS Centre
 
From controlled transition to caring transformations - Stirling
From controlled transition to caring transformations - StirlingFrom controlled transition to caring transformations - Stirling
From controlled transition to caring transformations - StirlingSTEPS Centre
 
Systems, change and growth - Huff and Brock
Systems, change and growth - Huff and BrockSystems, change and growth - Huff and Brock
Systems, change and growth - Huff and BrockSTEPS Centre
 
Brighton and Hove's Downland Estate - potentials to contribute to more sustai...
Brighton and Hove's Downland Estate - potentials to contribute to more sustai...Brighton and Hove's Downland Estate - potentials to contribute to more sustai...
Brighton and Hove's Downland Estate - potentials to contribute to more sustai...STEPS Centre
 
STEPS Annual Lecture 2017: Achim Steiner - Doomed to fail or bound to succeed...
STEPS Annual Lecture 2017: Achim Steiner - Doomed to fail or bound to succeed...STEPS Annual Lecture 2017: Achim Steiner - Doomed to fail or bound to succeed...
STEPS Annual Lecture 2017: Achim Steiner - Doomed to fail or bound to succeed...STEPS Centre
 
Andy Stirling - STEPS Centre 'Pathways Methods'
Andy Stirling - STEPS Centre 'Pathways Methods'Andy Stirling - STEPS Centre 'Pathways Methods'
Andy Stirling - STEPS Centre 'Pathways Methods'STEPS Centre
 
Andy Stirling - nexus methods
Andy Stirling - nexus methods Andy Stirling - nexus methods
Andy Stirling - nexus methods STEPS Centre
 
Suresh Rohilla - Climate change and sanitation, water resources
Suresh Rohilla - Climate change and sanitation, water resourcesSuresh Rohilla - Climate change and sanitation, water resources
Suresh Rohilla - Climate change and sanitation, water resourcesSTEPS Centre
 
Suraje Dessai - Uncertainty from above and encounters in the middle
Suraje Dessai - Uncertainty from above and encounters in the middleSuraje Dessai - Uncertainty from above and encounters in the middle
Suraje Dessai - Uncertainty from above and encounters in the middleSTEPS Centre
 
Sumetee Pahwa Gajjar - Uncertainty from within
Sumetee Pahwa Gajjar - Uncertainty from withinSumetee Pahwa Gajjar - Uncertainty from within
Sumetee Pahwa Gajjar - Uncertainty from withinSTEPS Centre
 
Shibaji Bose - Voices from below - a Photo Voice exploration in Indian sundar...
Shibaji Bose - Voices from below - a Photo Voice exploration in Indian sundar...Shibaji Bose - Voices from below - a Photo Voice exploration in Indian sundar...
Shibaji Bose - Voices from below - a Photo Voice exploration in Indian sundar...STEPS Centre
 
Ian Scoones - Enabling plural pathways - uncertainty and responses to climate...
Ian Scoones - Enabling plural pathways - uncertainty and responses to climate...Ian Scoones - Enabling plural pathways - uncertainty and responses to climate...
Ian Scoones - Enabling plural pathways - uncertainty and responses to climate...STEPS Centre
 
Saurabh Arora - The advantages of uncertainty - toward new principles for coo...
Saurabh Arora - The advantages of uncertainty - toward new principles for coo...Saurabh Arora - The advantages of uncertainty - toward new principles for coo...
Saurabh Arora - The advantages of uncertainty - toward new principles for coo...STEPS Centre
 

Plus de STEPS Centre (20)

Steps methods #7 illustrative methods
Steps methods #7 illustrative methodsSteps methods #7 illustrative methods
Steps methods #7 illustrative methods
 
TRANSFORMING IMAGINATIONS? Multiple dimensionalities and temporalities in tra...
TRANSFORMING IMAGINATIONS? Multiple dimensionalities and temporalities in tra...TRANSFORMING IMAGINATIONS? Multiple dimensionalities and temporalities in tra...
TRANSFORMING IMAGINATIONS? Multiple dimensionalities and temporalities in tra...
 
Coloniality in Transformation: decolonising methods for activist scholarship ...
Coloniality in Transformation: decolonising methods for activist scholarship ...Coloniality in Transformation: decolonising methods for activist scholarship ...
Coloniality in Transformation: decolonising methods for activist scholarship ...
 
Discussion: The Future of the World is Mobile - Giorgia Giovannetti
Discussion: The Future of the World is Mobile - Giorgia GiovannettiDiscussion: The Future of the World is Mobile - Giorgia Giovannetti
Discussion: The Future of the World is Mobile - Giorgia Giovannetti
 
Interfacing pastoral movements and modern mobilities
Interfacing pastoral movements and modern mobilitiesInterfacing pastoral movements and modern mobilities
Interfacing pastoral movements and modern mobilities
 
Reconceiving migration through the study of pastoral mobility
Reconceiving migration through the study of pastoral mobilityReconceiving migration through the study of pastoral mobility
Reconceiving migration through the study of pastoral mobility
 
Bringing moral economy into the study of land deals: reflections from Madagascar
Bringing moral economy into the study of land deals: reflections from MadagascarBringing moral economy into the study of land deals: reflections from Madagascar
Bringing moral economy into the study of land deals: reflections from Madagascar
 
Agency and social-ecological system (SES) pathways: the Transformation Lab in...
Agency and social-ecological system (SES) pathways: the Transformation Lab in...Agency and social-ecological system (SES) pathways: the Transformation Lab in...
Agency and social-ecological system (SES) pathways: the Transformation Lab in...
 
From controlled transition to caring transformations - Stirling
From controlled transition to caring transformations - StirlingFrom controlled transition to caring transformations - Stirling
From controlled transition to caring transformations - Stirling
 
Systems, change and growth - Huff and Brock
Systems, change and growth - Huff and BrockSystems, change and growth - Huff and Brock
Systems, change and growth - Huff and Brock
 
Brighton and Hove's Downland Estate - potentials to contribute to more sustai...
Brighton and Hove's Downland Estate - potentials to contribute to more sustai...Brighton and Hove's Downland Estate - potentials to contribute to more sustai...
Brighton and Hove's Downland Estate - potentials to contribute to more sustai...
 
STEPS Annual Lecture 2017: Achim Steiner - Doomed to fail or bound to succeed...
STEPS Annual Lecture 2017: Achim Steiner - Doomed to fail or bound to succeed...STEPS Annual Lecture 2017: Achim Steiner - Doomed to fail or bound to succeed...
STEPS Annual Lecture 2017: Achim Steiner - Doomed to fail or bound to succeed...
 
Andy Stirling - STEPS Centre 'Pathways Methods'
Andy Stirling - STEPS Centre 'Pathways Methods'Andy Stirling - STEPS Centre 'Pathways Methods'
Andy Stirling - STEPS Centre 'Pathways Methods'
 
Andy Stirling - nexus methods
Andy Stirling - nexus methods Andy Stirling - nexus methods
Andy Stirling - nexus methods
 
Suresh Rohilla - Climate change and sanitation, water resources
Suresh Rohilla - Climate change and sanitation, water resourcesSuresh Rohilla - Climate change and sanitation, water resources
Suresh Rohilla - Climate change and sanitation, water resources
 
Suraje Dessai - Uncertainty from above and encounters in the middle
Suraje Dessai - Uncertainty from above and encounters in the middleSuraje Dessai - Uncertainty from above and encounters in the middle
Suraje Dessai - Uncertainty from above and encounters in the middle
 
Sumetee Pahwa Gajjar - Uncertainty from within
Sumetee Pahwa Gajjar - Uncertainty from withinSumetee Pahwa Gajjar - Uncertainty from within
Sumetee Pahwa Gajjar - Uncertainty from within
 
Shibaji Bose - Voices from below - a Photo Voice exploration in Indian sundar...
Shibaji Bose - Voices from below - a Photo Voice exploration in Indian sundar...Shibaji Bose - Voices from below - a Photo Voice exploration in Indian sundar...
Shibaji Bose - Voices from below - a Photo Voice exploration in Indian sundar...
 
Ian Scoones - Enabling plural pathways - uncertainty and responses to climate...
Ian Scoones - Enabling plural pathways - uncertainty and responses to climate...Ian Scoones - Enabling plural pathways - uncertainty and responses to climate...
Ian Scoones - Enabling plural pathways - uncertainty and responses to climate...
 
Saurabh Arora - The advantages of uncertainty - toward new principles for coo...
Saurabh Arora - The advantages of uncertainty - toward new principles for coo...Saurabh Arora - The advantages of uncertainty - toward new principles for coo...
Saurabh Arora - The advantages of uncertainty - toward new principles for coo...
 

S12h tokyo 29 august nistep

  • 1. Ambiguous Evidence: implications of uncertainty for science policy seminar given at National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP), Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Tokyo, 29th August 2012 Andy Stirling SPRU & STEPS Centre
  • 2. Conventional Technology Policy “you can’t stop progress” … - The Economist PROGRESS “we'll restore science to its rightful place”… ` - President Obama “Our hope … relies on scientific and technological progress” - Premier Wen Jiabao “One can not impede scientific progress.” - President Ahmadinejad TECHNOLOGY all innovation is progress… Lisbon Strategy for: “pro-innovation action” - EU Council of Ministers “we need more pro-innovation policies” - PM Gordon Brown “… the Government’s strategy is … pro-innovation” - PM David Cameron
  • 3. Conventional Technology Policy Lord Alec Broers, President, RAEng PROGRESS …“history is a race to advance technology” Technology: “will determine the future of the human race’” The challenge of government: TECHNOLOGY “to strive to stay in the race”… The role of the public: “to give technology the status it deserves”…
  • 4. Conventional Technology Policy PROGRESS TECHNOLOGY
  • 5. Conventional Technology Policy PROGRESS TECHNOLOGY Treats innovation as homogeneous: no distinctions … no alternatives… no politics … no choice !
  • 6. Conventional Technology Policy PROGRESS TECHNOLOGY Treats innovation as homogeneous: no distinctions … no alternatives … no politics … no choice ! Scope for debate restricted to: yes or no? … how much? how fast? … who leads?
  • 7. Conventional Technology Policy PROGRESS TECHNOLOGY Treats innovation as homogeneous: no distinctions … no alternatives … no politics … no choice ! Scope for debate restricted to: yes or no? … how much? how fast?’ … who leads? Seriously neglects questions over: which way? …what alternatives? says who? …why?
  • 8. Technological Progress is Evolutionary For instance... “sustainable energy” Not all that is conceivable, feasible, viable – will be fully realisable
  • 9. Technological Progress Intended and unintended processes and power ‘close down’ pathways social shaping (Bijker, 85) co-construction (Misa, 03) studies: expectations (Brown, 03) imaginations (Jasanoff, 05)
  • 10. Technological Progress Intended and unintended processes and power ‘close down’ pathways history: contingency (Mokyr, 92) momentum (Hughes 83) path-dependence (David, 85) path creation (Karnoe, 01)
  • 11. Technological Progress Intended and unintended processes and power ‘close down’ pathways philosophy: autonomy (Winner, 77) closure (Feenberg, 91) /politics entrapment (Walker, 01) alignment (Geels, 02)
  • 12. Technological Progress Intended and unintended processes and power ‘close down’ pathways economics: homeostasis (Sahal, 85) lock-in (Arthur, 89) regimes (Nelson & Winter, 77) trajectories (Dosi, 82)
  • 13. ‘Sound Science’ in Policy and Regulation on public health: “… sound science … science-based decisions” - UN WHO DG Margaret Chan on genetic modification: “… this government's approach is to make decisions … on the basis of sound science” - former UK Prime Minister, Tony Blair on chemicals: “ …sound science will be the basis of the Commission's legislative proposal…” - EC RTD Commissioner, Philippe Busquin on energy: “[n]ow is the right time for a cool-headed, evidence based assessment … I want to sweep away historic prejudice and put in its place evidence and science” former UK Energy Minister Malcolm Wicks Justification: from political ‘problems’ to technical ‘puzzles’
  • 14. Ambiguity in Evidence Energy technologies: mature, sophisticated comparative analysis…
  • 15. Ambiguity in Evidence Energy technologies: mature, sophisticated comparative analysis… coal oil gas nuclear hydro wind solar biomass 0.001 0.1 10 1000 low RISK high externality’: cUS/kWh (after Sundqvist et al, 2005)
  • 16. Ambiguity in Evidence Energy technologies: mature, sophisticated comparative analysis… n= coal oil gas minimum 25% 75% maximum nuclear 21 hydro wind solar biomass 0.001 0.1 10 1000 low RISK high ‘externality’: cUS/kWh (after Sundqvist et al, 2005)
  • 17. Ambiguity in Evidence Energy technologies: mature, sophisticated comparative analysis… n= coal 36 oil 20 gas 31 nuclear 21 hydro 16 wind 18 solar 11 biomass 22
  • 18. Knowing Knowledge Conventional ‘risk practices’ suppress our ‘knowledge about knowledge’
  • 19. Knowing Knowledge Conventional expert practices suppress our ‘knowledge about knowledge’ marginalises, elides, ignores, (often) denies radical openness of ‘incertitude’: - insufficiency: knowledge efficacy is not normative basis for action . Aristotle, Kant, Habermas know-how is less important than know-why – eg: how to apply neuroscience?
  • 20. Knowing Knowledge Conventional expert practices suppress our ‘knowledge about knowledge’ marginalises, elides, ignores and (often) denies realities of knowledge: - insufficiency: knowledge efficacy is not normative basis for action - incompleteness: knowledge enabling utility is limited on wider effects . Lao Tzu, Socrates, Keynes ‘unknowns’ as important as ‘knowns’ – eg: unexpected mechanisms in nanohealth technologies
  • 21. Knowing Knowledge Conventional expert practices suppress our ‘knowledge about knowledge’ marginalises, elides, ignores and (often) denies realities of knowledge: - insufficiency: knowledge efficacy is not normative basis for action - incompleteness: knowledge enabling utility is limited on wider effects - indeterminacy: effective knowledge does not preclude surprise . Gödel, Dosi, Collingridge ”known knowns” foster hubris – eg: dangers of thinking we know halogenated hydrocarbons, CFCs and the ozone hole endocrine disruptors methyl tertbutyl ether
  • 22. Knowing Knowledge Conventional expert practices suppress our ‘knowledge about knowledge’ marginalises, elides, ignores and (often) denies realities of knowledge: - insufficiency: knowledge efficacy is not normative basis for action - incompleteness: knowledge is always limited as a basis for action - indeterminacy: effective knowledge does not preclude surprise - ‘inversity’: increased knowledge can increase ignorance . Einstein, Ravetz, Beck… area / perimeter of known – nonlinear dynamics of climate and oceans
  • 23. Knowing Knowledge Conventional expert practices suppress our ‘knowledge about knowledge’ marginalises, elides, ignores and (often) denies realities of knowledge: - insufficiency: knowledge efficacy is not normative basis for action - incompleteness: knowledge is always limited as a basis for action - indeterminacy : effective knowledge does not preclude surprise - ‘inversity’: increased knowledge can increase ignorance - intractability: knowledge-commitments compound vulnerability . Ellul, Wynne, Tenner not existence but exposure to unknown eg: nuclear dependency
  • 24. Knowing Knowledge Conventional expert practices suppress our ‘knowledge about knowledge’ marginalises, elides, ignores and (often) denies realities of knowledge: - insufficiency: knowledge efficacy is not normative basis for action - incompleteness: knowledge is always limited as a basis for action - indeterminacy : effective knowledge does not preclude surprise - ‘inversity’: increased knowledge can increase ignorance - intractability: knowledge-commitments compound vulnerability - incommensurability: knowledges are plural and often conflicting . Kuhn, Arrow, Jasanoff… knowledge often not linear / additive - eg: agronomy, ecology, soil science, molecular biology on GM
  • 25. Knowing Knowledge Conventional expert practices suppress our ‘knowledge about knowledge’ marginalises, elides, ignores and (often) denies realities of knowledge: - insufficiency: knowledge efficacy is not normative basis for action - incompleteness: knowledge is always limited as a basis for action - indeterminacy: effective knowledge does not preclude surprise - ‘inversity’: increased knowledge can increase ignorance - intractability: knowledge-commitments compound vulnerability - incommensurability: knowledges are plural and often conflicting representing incomplete knowledge as expert ‘risk’ is deeply problematic
  • 26. Beyond Risk contrasting aspects of ‘incertitude’ unproblematic RISK engineered components closed deterministic systems high frequency knowledge incidents familiar contexts about INCERTITUDE likelihoods open dynamic systems low frequency events human factors changing contexts problematic UNCERTAINTY - Socrates, Lao Tzu, Knight, Keynes, Shackle, Collingridge, Smithson, Ravetz, Wynne ...
  • 27. Beyond Risk contrasting aspects of ‘incertitude’ knowledge about possibilities unproblematic problematic unproblematic RISK AMBIGUITY engineered components defining pros & cons closed deterministic contrasting impacts systems high frequency diverse perspectives knowledge incidents familiar contexts alternative options about INCERTITUDE likelihoods open dynamic systems novel agents or vectors low frequency events surprising conditions human factors new alternatives changing contexts wilful blinkers problematic UNCERTAINTY IGNORANCE - Socrates, Lao Tzu, Knight, Keynes, Shackle, Collingridge, Smithson, Ravetz, Wynne ...
  • 28. Pressures for Closure institutional drivers of risk assessment knowledge about possibilities unproblematic problematic unproblematic RISK AMBIGUITY aggregative analysis patronage, pressure political closure knowledge about insurance limits ` science-based reductive models policy likelihoods stochastic reasoning institutional remits political liability protection culture harm definitions indicators / metrics problematic UNCERTAINTY IGNORANCE risk focus is shaped by power – Beck’s “organised irresponsibility”
  • 29. Methods for ‘Opening Up’ precaution and participation are about rigour knowledge about possibilities unproblematic problematic unproblematic RISK AMBIGUITY aggregated probabilities optimisation algorithms synthetic decision trees Delphi / Foresight knowledge predictive modelling about likelihoods problematic UNCERTAINTY IGNORANCE precautionary methods ‘open up’ appreciation of incertitude
  • 30. Methods for ‘Opening Up’ precaution and participation are about rigour knowledge about possibilities unproblematic problematic unproblematic RISK AMBIGUITY aggregated probabilities optimisation algorithms synthetic decision trees Delphi / Foresight knowledge predictive modelling about likelihoods burden of evidence onus of persuasion uncertainty factors decision heuristics interval analysis sensitivity testing problematic UNCERTAINTY IGNORANCE precautionary methods ‘open up’ appreciation of incertitude
  • 31. Methods for ‘Opening Up’ precaution and participation are about rigour knowledge about possibilities unproblematic problematic unproblematic RISK AMBIGUITY aggregated probabilities scenarios / backcasting optimisation algorithms interactive modelling synthetic decision trees mapping / Q-methods Delphi / Foresight participatory deliberation knowledge predictive modelling democratic procedures about likelihoods burden of evidence onus of persuasion uncertainty factors decision heuristics interval analysis sensitivity testing problematic UNCERTAINTY IGNORANCE precautionary methods ‘open up’ appreciation of incertitude
  • 32. Methods for ‘Opening Up’ precaution and participation are about rigour knowledge about possibilities unproblematic problematic unproblematic RISK AMBIGUITY aggregated probabilities scenarios / backcasting optimisation algorithms interactive modelling synthetic decision trees mapping / Q-methods Delphi / Foresight participatory deliberation knowledge predictive modelling democratic procedures about likelihoods burden of evidence responsive civic research onus of persuasion curiosity monitoring, uncertainty factors evidentiary presumptions decision heuristics flexibility, reversibility interval analysis diversity, resilience, sensitivity testing agility, adaptability problematic UNCERTAINTY IGNORANCE precautionary methods ‘open up’ appreciation of incertitude
  • 33. ‘Opening Up’ Incertitude precaution and participation are about rigour knowledge about possibilities unproblematic problematic unproblematic RISK AMBIGUITY definitive participatory prescription deliberation knowledge Options about likelihoods safety humility Options reflexivity precautionary adaptive sustainability appraisal learning problematic UNCERTAINTY IGNORANCE ‘opening up’: options, issues, approaches, possibilities, perspectives
  • 34. Plural Conditional Advice erent agricultural strategies ptions of selection of UK expert policy advisers organic environmental intensive GM + labelling GM + monitoring GM + voluntary controls
  • 35. Plural Conditional Advice erent agricultural strategies ptions of selection of UK expert policy advisers organic environmental intensive GM + labelling GM + monitoring GM + voluntary controls high risk low
  • 36. Plural Conditional Advice erent agricultural strategies ptions of selection of UK expert policy advisers GOVERNMENT organic environmental intensive GM + labelling GM + monitoring GM + voluntary controls organic environmental intensive GM + labelling GM + monitoring GM + voluntary controls high risk low
  • 37. Plural Conditional Advice erent agricultural strategies ptions of selection of UK expert policy advisers GOVERNMENT INDUSTRY organic environmental intensive GM + labelling GM + monitoring GM + voluntary controls organic environmental intensive GM + labelling GM + monitoring GM + voluntary controls high risk low
  • 38. Plural Conditional Advice erent agricultural strategies ptions of selection of UK expert policy advisers GOVERNMENT INDUSTRY PUBLIC INTEREST organic environmental intensive GM + labelling GM + monitoring GM + voluntary controls organic environmental intensive GM + labelling GM + monitoring GM + voluntary controls high risk low
  • 40. ‘Opening Up’ Technology Governance privileged POSSIBLE visions technological ‘lock-in’ innovation union PATHWAYS knowledge economy multiple feasible Innovation trajectories IIIIII € $ narrow scope ‘closed down’ ‘independent’ research restricted ‘sound scientific advice’ ‘pro-innovation’ culture appreciation ‘evidence based’ policy institutionalised pressures for justification presumed benefits force unitary ‘‘expert’ Options technical risk case-by-case focus assessment prescriptions narrow remits aggregated attention single ‘best’ / ‘optimal’ / regulatory capture risk most ‘legitimate’ technocratic procedures decisions
  • 41. ‘Opening Up’ Technology Governance diversity in technology portfolios POSSIBLE diverse knowledge PATHWAYS pathways democracy    IIIIII IIIIII   help catalyse: $ $   democratic accountability   context sensitivity   social robustness  broad-based ‘opening up’ politics of evidence as choice choice innovation discourse extended participation ‘best option’ depends on: transdisciplinary Options contexts, perspectives, deliberation sensitivities, scenarios, explicit priorities - ‘plural conditional’ uncertainties Sustainability public policy advice multiple options

Notes de l'éditeur

  1.