A presentation on the financial position of Wheat around the world (as of August 2014) Source: US Wheat Associates monthly supply and demand report, found on their website: http://www.uswheat.org

1. WORLD WHEAT
Source: US Wheat Associates monthly supply and demand report, found on their website: http://www.uswheat.org/

2. The World Wheat Market
Year
Production
Consumption
Surplus (shortfall)
12/1313/1414/15
658714716
680706707
-2289
0
2

3. World Production and Use
0
3

4. Supplies in Top Exporting Countries*
0
4
Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, and EU-27.
Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.

5. World wheat supply & demand
Date
12/1313/1414/15
Supply
Trade
Demand
Ending
stocks
197176184
658714716
855890900
137165152
543574572
137132135
680706707
176184193
Exports/imports
Beginning stock
Production
Supply total
Food & seed
Feed & residual
Use tool
0
5

6. Global Stocks* -to-Use Ratio
0
6
*Ending stocks

7. World Beginning Stocks
0
10

8. World Ending Stocks
0
12

9. International Wheat Factors
Global wheat production projected to reach a record 716 MMT,up from last years record 714 MMT.
Total global supply estimate at 900 MMT; 10 MMT higherthan in 2013/14.
World consumption forecast to increase by 1 MMTto 707 MMT, with feed demand forecast to increase by 3 MMT.
World ending stocks forecast to increase by 4.8%to 193 MMTfrom 184 MMT in 2013/14.
US wheat production is expected to decline by 5%and the Canadian crop is forecast to decline by 25%.
Black Sea wheat production is forecast to increase by 7% and Argentina’s wheat production by19% to12.5 MMT.
0
9

10. Canada Situation
0
10

11. Argentina Situation
0
11

12. U.S. Situation
0
8

13. Black Sea Exports
0
8

14. Date
Opening stock
Production
Imports
489
Consumption
Exports
Closing stock
1870
1650*
3220
267
522
13/14*
Supply & demand of wheat
in South Africa (‘000 tons)
0
13

15. Local Wheat Drivers
Limited small crop –1,870 million tons (need to import 43%of requirement) = import parity driven, new season local crop even smaller, need more imports to balance supply.
Concern on plentiful world stocks is quality of wheat and low percentage of milling versus feed wheat.
Possible implementation of wheat tariff depending on US HRW wheat prices.
Current pace of imports on track with requirements.
Quality of actual wheat imports into South Africa.
0
14

16. 0
15

17. 0
16
US$/ZAR