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Developing the renewable energy
       evidence base
       Presenter’s name: Daniel Archard
       Presented to:     Renewables Infrastructure Framework workshop
       Date:             05/07/2012




p. 1
       Energy and carbon advisory services                              www.vercoglobal.com
Evidence base underpins everything (targets, planning policies, Framework)

•     What is your local renewable energy resource?
•     How has it been estimated?
•     What is the current contribution?

•     Are your targets achievable? Which
      technologies? What deployment opportunities?

•     Are existing policies supporting the right
      technologies in the right way?

•     Do all relevant players understand their role
      and the available opportunities?




p.2     05/07/2012   Developing the renewable energy evidence base
Key principles in developing a good baseline

                                                                   1. Follow Government’s standardised
                                                                      methodology
                                                                   2. Use best available and reference-able
                                                                      data sources
                                                                   3. Test the evidence base - consult on
                                                                      approach and data sources (and fill
                                                                      data gaps)
                                                                   4. Presenting the evidence base - consult
                                                                      on findings & how to present findings in
                                                                      most useful way
                                                                   5. Communicate widely to all
                                                                      stakeholders

                                                                   Has to stand up to scrutiny e.g. planning
                                                                   inspector at EiP



p.3   05/07/2012   Developing the renewable energy evidence base
Renewable energy assessment

      • Stages for developing a comprehensive evidence base for
        renewable energy potential




p.4    05/07/2012   Developing the renewable energy evidence base
Key elements of the baseline data

•     Baseline energy demand & projected
      future demand

•     Mapping growth areas

•     Mapping existing renewables
      infrastructure

•     Renewables resource assessment

•     CHP & DH resource assessment (heat
      mapping)




p.5    05/07/2012   Developing the renewable energy evidence base
Installed renewable energy in East of England


                                      Installed renewable energy in the East of England
  400



  350



  300



  250                                                                                                        PV
                                                                                                             Municipal and Industrial Waste
                                                                                                             Hydro
  200
                                                                                                             Wind
                                                                                                             Sewage gas
  150
                                                                                                             Landfill gas
                                                                                                             Dedicated biomass
  100



      50



       0
               Essex          Hertforshire        Bedfordshire          Cambridgeshire   Norfolk   Suffolk



p.6        05/07/2012   Developing the renewable energy evidence base
Calculating the technical potential

•     Use current evidence base wherever possible and identify gaps that need to be filled

Technologies include:
• Biomass & EfW
• Wind – GIS mapping of locations where turbines could be located
• Solar (PV and SWH) - number of buildings where panels could be located
• Heat pumps
• Hydro

•     Modelling trajectory of new building development to assess microgen growth

•     GIS mapping of all outputs




p.7     05/07/2012   Developing the renewable energy evidence base
Access to available data is key

GIS data
• OS MasterMap
• OS Address Points
• OS 50k Rasters
• Conservation Areas
• Common land
• LLPG
• SHLAA sites & allocated employment land

•     Waste data

•     Valuation Office Agency (VAO)
•     Dwelling Stock Data from ONS
•     DUKES/ energy consumption data



p.8    05/07/2012   Developing the renewable energy evidence base
Estimate of technical potential across all technologies

              Renewable energy technical potential compared to
                    Cambridgeshire's energy demand
                                                                                          PV

                                                                                          Wind
   Heat
 generation                                                                               Biomass
                                             Heat demand
                                                                                          EfW

 Electricity                                                                              Landfill gas
 generation
                                                                                          SWH

                    0                  5,000                 10,000     15,000   20,000
                                                               GWh




p.9    05/07/2012       Developing the renewable energy evidence base
Modelling renewable energy deployment potential
                                                                                             Scenario 4
                                         Scenario 1          Scenario 2      Scenario 3      (high without
                    Inputs               (low)               (medium)        (high)          wind)
                    Discount rate        9%                  7%              6%              6%
                                                                             DECC - 'high    DECC - 'high
                    Energy price         DECC - 'low'        DECC - 'high'   high' energy    high' energy
                    [1]
                                         energy prices       energy prices   prices          prices
                                                                             current rates   current rates
                                                                             (FIT/ RHI       (FIT/ RHI
                                                                             designed to     designed to
                                                                             give fixed      give fixed
                                                                             return & will   return & will
                    Financial            lower than                          adjust to       adjust to
                    incentives           current tariff                      energy          energy
                    (FIT/RHI)            rates               current rates   prices)         prices)
                    Project
                    deployment
                    rate
                    (wind/biomas                                                             30% (0% for
                    s/EfW)               8%                  15%             30%             wind)

                    Green policy
                    support (for
                    building
                    integrated
                    technologies)        Low                  Medium         High            High



p.10   05/07/2012   Developing the renewable energy evidence base
Clearly documented, organised, referenced analysis




p.11   05/07/2012   Developing the renewable energy evidence base
Producing a relevant & useful evidence base

•      Communicating the renewable potential:
        – installed capacity (MW)
        – Generation potential (MWh)
        – CO2 savings
        – % energy demand
        – Infrastructure
        – Geographical resolution

•      Other influencing factors:
        – off gas areas: high potential for renewable heat
           (space, economics & carbon savings)

        – district heating networks viable in higher density
          urban areas (identify areas over this minimum
          threshold)


p.12     05/07/2012   Developing the renewable energy evidence base
Producing a relevant & useful evidence base

•      Where does the resource lie?
        – which technologies, which
          locations?

•      Who has control over delivery?
        – In which assets, buildings & land
          does the resource lie?

        – by developing the resource
          ‘bottom-up’, the delivery pathways
          can be identified & quantified

        – how much of the deployable
          resource is under control of public
          sector, suitable for community
          groups, commercial delivery?

p.13     05/07/2012   Developing the renewable energy evidence base
Example output – off gas areas




p.14   05/07/2012   Developing the renewable energy evidence base
Example output – heat map




p.15   05/07/2012   Developing the renewable energy evidence base
Renewable energy deployment potential for Cambridgeshire




p.16   05/07/2012   Developing the renewable energy evidence base
Substantial infrastructure is needed


       Number of installations associated with delivery of each scenario




p.17      05/07/2012   Developing the renewable energy evidence base
Significant investment opportunity


    Investment potential for each scenario in £millions




        18
    05/07/2012   Developing the renewable energy evidence base
CRIF delivery pathways



                                               Deployment potential by pathway
                                        1600
                                        1400
           Deployment potential (GWh)




                                                                                                       Wind >=6 turbines
                                        1200
                                                                                                       Wind <=5 turbines
                                        1000
                                                                                                       Biomass
                                         800
                                                                                                       ASHP
                                         600
                                                                                                       GSHP
                                         400
                                                                                                       SWH
                                         200
                                                                                                       PV
                                          0
                                                   Public sector             Community    Commercial


p.19   05/07/2012                         Developing the renewable energy evidence base
What does the evidence base tell you?

•      Investment potential - e.g. £6 Billion potential in
       Cambridgeshire
•      Scale of infrastructure -

•      Resource potential – identifies which
       technologies have the potential.
         – Why focus investment on the lower
           potential, less cost effective technologies
           for your area?

•      Common platform of information enables
       investment planning and key delivery partners
       to come together




p.20     05/07/2012   Developing the renewable energy evidence base
Developing the renewable
       energy evidence base
       Presenter’s name: Daniel Archard
       Presented to:     Renewables Infrastructure Framework event
       Date:             05/07/2012




p.21
       Energy and carbon advisory services                           www.vercoglobal.com

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RIF Verco - Developing the evidence base

  • 1. Developing the renewable energy evidence base Presenter’s name: Daniel Archard Presented to: Renewables Infrastructure Framework workshop Date: 05/07/2012 p. 1 Energy and carbon advisory services www.vercoglobal.com
  • 2. Evidence base underpins everything (targets, planning policies, Framework) • What is your local renewable energy resource? • How has it been estimated? • What is the current contribution? • Are your targets achievable? Which technologies? What deployment opportunities? • Are existing policies supporting the right technologies in the right way? • Do all relevant players understand their role and the available opportunities? p.2 05/07/2012 Developing the renewable energy evidence base
  • 3. Key principles in developing a good baseline 1. Follow Government’s standardised methodology 2. Use best available and reference-able data sources 3. Test the evidence base - consult on approach and data sources (and fill data gaps) 4. Presenting the evidence base - consult on findings & how to present findings in most useful way 5. Communicate widely to all stakeholders Has to stand up to scrutiny e.g. planning inspector at EiP p.3 05/07/2012 Developing the renewable energy evidence base
  • 4. Renewable energy assessment • Stages for developing a comprehensive evidence base for renewable energy potential p.4 05/07/2012 Developing the renewable energy evidence base
  • 5. Key elements of the baseline data • Baseline energy demand & projected future demand • Mapping growth areas • Mapping existing renewables infrastructure • Renewables resource assessment • CHP & DH resource assessment (heat mapping) p.5 05/07/2012 Developing the renewable energy evidence base
  • 6. Installed renewable energy in East of England Installed renewable energy in the East of England 400 350 300 250 PV Municipal and Industrial Waste Hydro 200 Wind Sewage gas 150 Landfill gas Dedicated biomass 100 50 0 Essex Hertforshire Bedfordshire Cambridgeshire Norfolk Suffolk p.6 05/07/2012 Developing the renewable energy evidence base
  • 7. Calculating the technical potential • Use current evidence base wherever possible and identify gaps that need to be filled Technologies include: • Biomass & EfW • Wind – GIS mapping of locations where turbines could be located • Solar (PV and SWH) - number of buildings where panels could be located • Heat pumps • Hydro • Modelling trajectory of new building development to assess microgen growth • GIS mapping of all outputs p.7 05/07/2012 Developing the renewable energy evidence base
  • 8. Access to available data is key GIS data • OS MasterMap • OS Address Points • OS 50k Rasters • Conservation Areas • Common land • LLPG • SHLAA sites & allocated employment land • Waste data • Valuation Office Agency (VAO) • Dwelling Stock Data from ONS • DUKES/ energy consumption data p.8 05/07/2012 Developing the renewable energy evidence base
  • 9. Estimate of technical potential across all technologies Renewable energy technical potential compared to Cambridgeshire's energy demand PV Wind Heat generation Biomass Heat demand EfW Electricity Landfill gas generation SWH 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 GWh p.9 05/07/2012 Developing the renewable energy evidence base
  • 10. Modelling renewable energy deployment potential Scenario 4 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 (high without Inputs (low) (medium) (high) wind) Discount rate 9% 7% 6% 6% DECC - 'high DECC - 'high Energy price DECC - 'low' DECC - 'high' high' energy high' energy [1] energy prices energy prices prices prices current rates current rates (FIT/ RHI (FIT/ RHI designed to designed to give fixed give fixed return & will return & will Financial lower than adjust to adjust to incentives current tariff energy energy (FIT/RHI) rates current rates prices) prices) Project deployment rate (wind/biomas 30% (0% for s/EfW) 8% 15% 30% wind) Green policy support (for building integrated technologies) Low Medium High High p.10 05/07/2012 Developing the renewable energy evidence base
  • 11. Clearly documented, organised, referenced analysis p.11 05/07/2012 Developing the renewable energy evidence base
  • 12. Producing a relevant & useful evidence base • Communicating the renewable potential: – installed capacity (MW) – Generation potential (MWh) – CO2 savings – % energy demand – Infrastructure – Geographical resolution • Other influencing factors: – off gas areas: high potential for renewable heat (space, economics & carbon savings) – district heating networks viable in higher density urban areas (identify areas over this minimum threshold) p.12 05/07/2012 Developing the renewable energy evidence base
  • 13. Producing a relevant & useful evidence base • Where does the resource lie? – which technologies, which locations? • Who has control over delivery? – In which assets, buildings & land does the resource lie? – by developing the resource ‘bottom-up’, the delivery pathways can be identified & quantified – how much of the deployable resource is under control of public sector, suitable for community groups, commercial delivery? p.13 05/07/2012 Developing the renewable energy evidence base
  • 14. Example output – off gas areas p.14 05/07/2012 Developing the renewable energy evidence base
  • 15. Example output – heat map p.15 05/07/2012 Developing the renewable energy evidence base
  • 16. Renewable energy deployment potential for Cambridgeshire p.16 05/07/2012 Developing the renewable energy evidence base
  • 17. Substantial infrastructure is needed Number of installations associated with delivery of each scenario p.17 05/07/2012 Developing the renewable energy evidence base
  • 18. Significant investment opportunity Investment potential for each scenario in £millions 18 05/07/2012 Developing the renewable energy evidence base
  • 19. CRIF delivery pathways Deployment potential by pathway 1600 1400 Deployment potential (GWh) Wind >=6 turbines 1200 Wind <=5 turbines 1000 Biomass 800 ASHP 600 GSHP 400 SWH 200 PV 0 Public sector Community Commercial p.19 05/07/2012 Developing the renewable energy evidence base
  • 20. What does the evidence base tell you? • Investment potential - e.g. £6 Billion potential in Cambridgeshire • Scale of infrastructure - • Resource potential – identifies which technologies have the potential. – Why focus investment on the lower potential, less cost effective technologies for your area? • Common platform of information enables investment planning and key delivery partners to come together p.20 05/07/2012 Developing the renewable energy evidence base
  • 21. Developing the renewable energy evidence base Presenter’s name: Daniel Archard Presented to: Renewables Infrastructure Framework event Date: 05/07/2012 p.21 Energy and carbon advisory services www.vercoglobal.com