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Alex Moczarski
1. Building in an uncertain future - Increasing your adaptive capacity to climate change Alex Moczarski, Project Officer (Business), UKCIP 18th November 2009
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4. UKCIP - a boundary organisation “ Connecting scientists, policy makers and decisions makers”
5. UKCIP resources and support All tools free from www.ukcip.org.uk Support: Regional Partnerships Sectoral Partnerships Business Capacity Building LA Capacity Building
6. TRCCG adaptation publications Checklist for development Case study companion Good practice guide for sustainable communities http://www.london.gov.uk/trccg/publications/
7. Climate change is unavoidable… Determined by current & future emissions Predetermined, inevitable
13. The Heatwave in Europe of 2003 Europe: 30,000 deaths attributed to the heat wave Forest fires and crop damage seriously impacted economy Economic losses in excess of £7.5bn England (3-14/8/03): Excess mortality All ages: 2091(17%) >75: 1781(23%) Emergency hospital admissions (>75) 1490 (6%) Hadley Centre
14. Summer 2003 ‘Heat wave’ could be normal by 2040s, cool by 2080s European summer temperatures Source: Peter Stott, Hadley Centre observations Medium-High emissions (modelled)
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17. Many different formats… 25km Administrative regions River basins Marine Storm surge Sub surface
18. Summer mean max temperature 2050’s high emissions scenario 90% probability level: very unlikely to be greater than 50% probability level: central estimate 10% probability level: very unlikely to be less than Change in summer mean maximum temperature (ºC) Spatial variations
19. Change in annual mean temperature (ºC) High emissions scenario 2020s 2050s 2080s 90% probability level: very unlikely to be greater than 10% probability level: very unlikely to be less than 50% probability level: central estimate Change in annual mean temperature (ºC)
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22. From Climate Change to Business Consequences Trends Hotter, drier summers Milder, wetter winters Greater proportion of rain in heavy downpours Sea level rise Events Heat waves Droughts Floods Fewer cold snaps Storms Consequences Loss of business continuity Changing raw material, repair, maintenance, insurance costs Health/ comfort implications for employees Increased/ decreased productivity Changing markets Effect on reputation Impacts Damage to physical assets Loss of access to buildings Effects on biological/ industrial processes Uncomfortable indoor environments Damage to critical infrastructure Changing lifestyles and consumer tastes Changing commodity prices/ availability
23. Why consider climate change? Climate Change Potential impacts on: Markets Logistics Process Finance People Premises Management response Potential impacts on: Your business assets and activities Reputational risk Health & safety risk Strategic risk Financial risk Operational risk Environmental risk
UKCIP has 12 years of experience in helping the UK identify the climate impacts that will create long term risks and opportunities. In recent years UKCIP has moved from predominantly focusing on climate impacts to how the UK needs to adapt to the inevitable climate change that we will see over the coming decades. There is a team within UKCIP focused exclusively on helping UK businesses understand and build resilience to climate change impacts through adaptation. Current examples of work being undertaken with the construction and engineering sector are the CCFB partnership, Three Regions Climate Change Group (TRCCG), very good links with CIBSE, a number of projects in the ARCC programme, links to the BSI working groups reviewing construction standards, one to one relationship with architects. We act to bridge gaps between the detailed scientific knowledge of climate change, influencing government policy and increasing the coping capacity of UK PLC to climate change.
UKCIP are a boundary organisation Connecting scientists generating knowledge, government making policy and people making decisions in the real world.
Highlight scenarios, BACLAT and Wizard
This graph shows the importance of both mitigation and adaptation. The effort put into mitigation at the moment will see global climate benefits realised in approximately 50 years. Businesses and others will see immediate benefits from reduced resource usage. For adaptation any activity undertaken now will reduced risks immediately and in many cases will also enable cost savings and opportunities for growth or differentiation In terms of uncertainty adaptation will reduce the likelihood of future weather events affecting business.
At this stage it is important that we project not only the detailed changes that the science presents, but ourselves into a potentially vastly different future. A future that will require our society and the individual to change its expectations and ways of responding to and doing what we are used to. These changes will fundamentally impact the way businesses operate, fortunately we have the opportunity now to assess what these changes might be and how we might have to respond to them.
This could be a reality, it would change the way we view land use because new opportunities and challenges will arise.
So you could be building more of these!
But there will also be new challenges thrown up by the changing climate…
So you might be building more of these?
2.5 degrees above the average Heatwave in first 2 weeks of August 2003. Estimated to have caused about 30,000 excess deaths across Europe including more than 2000 in the UK. Also significant economic losses – mostly in agriculture and forest fires. These events will have impacts on the demands placed on the build environment in terms of demand for cooling and shading in both internal and external environments. Massive implications for the infrastructure that exists and that is planned
The red line indicates predicted temperatures from one of the models (on basis of MH emissions scenario) Black line show observed temperature record with the peak in 2003. But notice conditions similar to 2003 are likely to become the norm by the middle of the century and represent a cool summer by the 2080s.
This is being addressed through the provision of probabilistic climate projections (and this is perhaps the main difference that users will notice relative to UKCIP02). Climate projections from UKCP09 will include a probability term for a given change The animation illustrates how UKCIP02 provided a single projection, but UKCP09 will provide a range of projections and assign probabilities within this range
The projections are presented usefully with a number of pre defined map outputs, of which the 6 different types are highlighted here. Marine projections - Sea areas based on Defra “Charting Progress” report
Note regional variation with SE being more affected than NW because of the relative influences of the continental land mass (which changes more quickly) and the oceans (with more thermal inertia).
Example of administrative regions
There is a lot of extra information available to help you use the projections. The User Guidance on the UKCP09 dedicated website, including the methods underpinning them and the range of products and tools used to access the data. UKCP09 in Paractice – includes examples and case studies. Support is provided on appropriate ways to use the products and how to interpret the results generated from them.
Key findings from UKCP09 are broadly similar to those in UKCIP02 Trends There is expected to be greater warming in the south and east than in the north and west (high confidence). There is expected to be greater warming in the summer and autumn than in the winter and spring (medium confidence). The thermal growing season is expected to continue to lengthen (high confidence), but soil moisture levels in the summer and autumn are expected to decrease (high confidence). Extremes The number of very hot days is expected to increase and high temperatures similar to those experienced in August 2003 or July 2006 (>3degrees above average are expected to become common by the end of this century, even under the Low Emissions scenario (medium confidence). The average duration of summer heatwaves has increased in all regions of the UK by between 4 and 16 days since 1961. The number of very cold winter days is expected to decrease, and low temperatures similar to those experienced in February 1947 or January/February 1963 (>3°C below average) are expected to become highly uncommon by the end of this century, even under the Low Emissions scenario (medium confidence). The average duration of winter cold snaps has decreased in all regions of the UK by between 6 and 12 days since 1961. Heavier winter precipitation is expected to become more frequent (high confidence). There has been a trend towards heavier winter precipitation for most parts of the UK since 1961. Winter storms and mild, wet and windy winter weather are expected to become more frequent (low confidence).
In terms of why businesses will need to increase their coping capacity, the trends and extremes will introduce different operating conditions that can be reacted to, but forward planning is clearly a better approach to take. Making connections from the projected futures through to direct and indirect consequences. Now that you have persuaded your business that climate change impacts need to be taken seriously, lets make the link between what you have experienced to real business risks and how these might manifest themselves in the future. Shows how the trends and extreme weather events can lead to economic consequences by impacting on infrastructure, biological and industrial processes, working conditions, lifestyles, tastes as well as perceptions and values.
Issue of professional indemnity (perhaps part of the reputational or financial risk?) The impacts CC can have could go beyond the physical consequences of the impacts. It is important to look broadly at how this issue not only affects physical assets, but also at associated soft consequences on reputation, social responsibility and your ability to maintain service offering to your customers? Reputation With customers – judged on ability to cope in challenging situations. With employees – attract and retain happy productive staff. Organisational and Network resilience
New opportunities to use different construction methods and materials to make the building envelope more sustainable? As with other sustainable considerations, considering adaptation at early stages of construction and particularly for new builds is much more productive and less costly than retro fitting or amending designs later in the buildings life.
Although they may not be involved, it is important to remember providing services to new developments will be dependant on their resilience to climate change and therefore for sustainable construction more emphasis may need to be placed on onsite provision or backup provision of utilities.
TRCCG – Three Regions Climate Change Group Materials will be affected by climate change. For example, materials like brick and concrete once warmed up, stay warm for a long time, while light materials such as wood are warmed up quickly, but also cool down quickly. Consequently, walls built with heavy materials retain heat and let it out slowly. It is important that the structure should have the optimum thermal mass to maintain a comfortable internal environment with the least use of energy. For high occupancy uses such as houses and hospitals, this usually means high thermal mass. Construction product directive. (CPD)
New construction products e.g. straw, under ground houses, earth sheltered housing. AM - I am not sure whether this is a viable option. It seems a bit too extreme!
Large scale or small scale, simple technical solutions for threats: Redhill, NI, Casella Cel, farm Developing new products to exploit opportunities: Scotts Miracle-Gro Also building adaptive capacity: NT SUDS sustainable Drainage Systems Road surfaces need to be more resilient to higher temperatures. International analogues.
Example of standards identified by a member of the CCFB partnership that will be affected by climate change Also working with the BSI CB working groups to help facilitate the analysis of their standards and the potential impacts from climate change.
The thread here is to discuss the introduction of climate change into common business practices. If the businesses aren’t familiar with ISO standards then link to business processes that are already in place.
Once the BACLIAT exercise is complete and there is a good understanding of the vulnerability of the organisation to climate change, the next steps of the Wizard will help to formalise the risks and opportunities into a ranked risk register and from there build up a robust strategy to tackle the issue.
Drawing a lot of the tools and guidance together, the adaptation wizard provides a comprehensive but straight forward management standard to consider how climate change can affect a business’s activities. If stage 4 is reached then actions which can be taken can be categorised into building adaptive capacity which includes building knowledge and expertise on the subject, and delivering adaptive actions which can be seen as the actual physical changes made to minimise future risks and maximise opportunities.
TRCCG “ Adapting to climate change – a checklist for development
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