We believe that the time has come to build a world where we can welcome 9 billion people rather than fear their arrival. A world of 9 billion capable citizens is an ambitious vision and a powerful driver for the development of economies, businesses and societies. A potential marketplace of 9 billion capable citizens in 2050 demands a range of social, technical, industrial and ecological pre-requisites. This presentation explores the vision and proposes some simple yet fundamental changes to the nature of economics to produce innately sustainable outcomes.

1. Towards 9
Billion: Infinite
economy on a
finite planet
Joss Tantram University of Surrey,
Centre for Environmental Strategy.
Partner, Terrafiniti LLP 1st November 2012

2. Overview
• The future that is coming
• The challenge of the real world
• The challenge of the Unreal world
• Towards 9 Billion – a positive vision
• It’s all about price
• Hacking the price function – Towards 9
Billion Value & Design Principles
Making business sense of sustainability

3. “When it comes to
the baddest
sonfabitch on the
block, nature wins
every time.”
Joe R Landsdale

4. The future that is coming
• 9 billion people are coming.
• Resource scarcity and price volatility – in energy and
water but also rare metals and natural production.
• Larger and more unpredictable changes to ecosystem
function.
• Increased social unrest due to inequity and economic
disenfranchisement.
• Continued system-wide inertial impacts and risks.
However....
• We are capable of great things...

5. “In England we have
come to rely upon a
comfortable time-lag
of fifty years or a
century intervening
between the
perception that
something ought to be
done and a serious
attempt to do it.”
H G Wells

6. The challenge of the real world
Ecological systems are:
• Dynamic and complex, capable of rapid change.
• Determined by physical conditions.
• Have no absolute “right or wrong” states.
• Have varied hugely over time, hospitable conditions for
species are not guaranteed.
• Only partially understood, vastly more complex than
human models are able to map.
• Capable of being affected by and affecting human
activity.

7. The challenge of the Unreal world
Economies and markets:
• Lack strategic social and ecological intent.
• Find valuing common goods and the productive
capacity of underlying systems challenging.
• Discount rather than compound future value.
• Are only partially based upon the nature of
physical reality.
• Tend to value activity at any “cost”.

8. “What rational business
would, on the one
hand, make plans for
growth in the production
and supply of products
and services whilst on
the other hand building
those technologies and
services using resources
that are not abundant or
safe enough to meet
these growth targets?”
Towards 9 Billion – Valuing Abundance

9. Towards 9 Billion...The Vision

10. Towards 9 Billion...The Strategy
• To align the common interests of
organisations with those of citizens to
produce innately sustainable
outcomes, and:
• To make small but significant changes to
the way that business, economics and
finance operate to embed sustainable
value in economic price.

11. Towards 9 Billion...two goals
Over the next 40 (ish) years to deliver:
• 9 billion capable citizens.
• Healthy and thriving ecosystems.

12. Towards 9 Billion - dimensions
What are capable citizens?
 Citizens capable of making economic choices and economic plans.
 They would:
• have access to advanced education
• be highly connected
• be equitably rewarded for the use of their lives in other people’s
employ
• be able to raise children without fearing for their future
• be capable of contributing to and accessing commercial and public
services
• make conscious and informed decisions about what they buy.

13. Towards 9 Billion - dimensions
What are healthy & thriving ecosystems?
 Healthy and thriving ecosystems:
• Have properties that are greater than the sum of
their individual constituents
• provide varied ecosystem services
• have the capacity to absorb disturbance – resilience
• are diverse – exhibiting multiple redundancy.

14. Towards 9 Billion
Achieving the vision:
• Requires us to value the future as highly as we value today.
• To align common interest and self-interest.
• To assess economic behaviour as likely to either support or
undermine that future and use this to determine the value of that
behaviour.
• To have a shared goal for economic activity.
• To re-engineer how we define price.

15. It’s all about price
• Price is a fundamental component of our
economic and financial architecture.
• Price is a concept arising from a
combination of supply and
demand, statistics and sentiment.
• But price is not the same as value.
• Price values the present as more
valuable than the future.
• Price struggles with the priceless –
human wellbeing, healthy & thriving
ecosystems.

16. Hacking the price function
Towards 9 Billion Value & Design Principles:
• Value abundance rather than scarcity -
scarce things are only of marginal utility in
a world of 9 billion capable citizens . Either
natural (e.g. biologically based) or
managed (e.g. through closed loop
stewardship) abundance is inherently
more valuable and sustainable in this
context.

17. Hacking the price function
Towards 9 Billion Value & Design Principles:
• Preserve & Grow Natural vitality -
making use of the planet’s natural
restorative and productive abilities
(Restorative services) and learning
from and utilising natural production
techniques (Vital technologies) as the
basis for our technological and
industrial models.

18. Hacking the price function
Towards 9 Billion Value & Design Principles:
• Value and Balance
interdependence - nothing
happens in our modern world
without the involvement of others.
We need to recognise and balance
this interdependence so that our
quality of life is not bought at the
cost of someone else’s and that
our quality of life is not at risk if
others we depend upon decide to
withdraw their subsidy.

19. Abundant Assets & technologies...

20. “Nature is trying
very hard to make
us succeed, but
nature does not
depend on us. We
are not the only
experiment.”
R. Buckminster Fuller

21. Further information
Email: joss@terrafiniti.com
Towards 9 Billion Blog: www.terrafiniti.com/blog
Web: www.terrafiniti.com
Making business sense of sustainability