This is the first in a series of presentations that deals with the question: how can we make public transit systems more effective at attracting new riders and shaping urban regions? Alan Hoffman, an internationally recognized expert in transit markets, discusses the findings of market research he has conducted or supervised, as well as his work advising cities and regions across the planet on how to improve their transit systems. This first presentation addresses a number of preconceptions that even many professionals in the field have, and reports on the findings of research that suggest the need for regions to become far more sophisticated at how they understand the people they are designing and planning transit services for. The Mission Group is a strategy firm that has helped many cities devise strategies to boost the long-term effectiveness of their transit planning so that they can set and achieve ambitious goals for transforming the role that transit plays in their regions.

1. 1A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
A Market-Focused Paradigm
for Public Transit
THE MISSION GROUP
Part I—Challenging Our Preconceptions
Alan Hoffman ▪ San Diego, California ▪ (619) 232-1776 ▪ info@missionconsult.com
© 2013 by The Mission Group. All Rights Reserved.
PART
1
1A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
A Market-Focused Paradigm
for Public Transit
THE MISSION GROUP
Part I—Challenging Our Preconceptions
Alan Hoffman ▪ San Diego, California ▪ (619) 232-1776 ▪ info@missiongrouponline.com
© 2013 by The Mission Group. All Rights Reserved.
PART
1www.missionconsult.com

2. 2A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
Why Do Cities Invest in Transit?
“Reduce”
Congestion

3. 3A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
Why Do Cities Invest in Transit?
“Reduce”
Congestion
Improve Air
Quality

4. 4A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
Why Do Cities Invest in Transit?
“Reduce”
Congestion
Improve Air
Quality
Reduce
Sprawl

5. 5A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
Why Do Cities Invest in Transit?
“Reduce”
Congestion
Improve Air
Quality
Reduce
Sprawl
To accomplish these goals, transit must
attract someone who would otherwise
drive a single-passenger automobile.

6. 6A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
Why Do Cities Invest in Transit?
“Reduce”
Congestion
Improve Air
Quality
Reduce
Sprawl
Increase
Choices
To accomplish these goals, transit must
attract someone who would otherwise
drive a single-passenger automobile.

7. 7A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
Why Do Cities Invest in Transit?
“Reduce”
Congestion
Improve Air
Quality
Reduce
Sprawl
Increase
Choices
But Is It a
Better Choice?
To accomplish these goals, transit must
attract someone who would otherwise
drive a single-passenger automobile.

8. How do you get
someone to use transit?
More to the point, how do
you create the kinds of transit
services that attract appreciable
numbers of new riders?

9. How do you get
someone to use transit?
More to the point, how do
you create the kinds of transit
services that attract appreciable
numbers of new riders?

10. Harvard Business School
professor James L. Heskett
studied how service-sector firms
created “breakthrough” services
that attracted new customers and
improved firms’ bottom lines.

11. 11A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
Service Breakthroughs
“Service Breakthroughs”
occur when the inputs
or resources used to
produce a given service
are redeployed in such
manner that they
dramatically increase
the value of that service
in the eyes of potential
clients.
JAMES L. HESKETT
Harvard Business School
Managing
in the
Service
Economy
JAMES L. HESKETT
Harvard Business School
Managing
in the
Service
Economy

12. Heskett identified four core
strategic elements and three
integrative elements that
were behind the creation
of service breakthroughs.

13. 13A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
Service Breakthroughs
Four Core Strategic Elements

14. 14A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
Service Breakthroughs
Target
Market
Segments
Four Core Strategic Elements
Which market segments represent
a growth opportunity?
How do you identify and reach them?

15. 15A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
Service Breakthroughs
Target
Market
Segments
Develop a
Service
Concept
Four Core Strategic Elements
How do you plan to serve them?

16. 16A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
Service Breakthroughs
Target
Market
Segments
Develop a
Service
Concept
Formulate
an Operating
Strategy
Four Core Strategic Elements
What are the steps involved in service delivery?
How and where do you cover your costs?

17. 17A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
Service Breakthroughs
Target
Market
Segments
Develop a
Service
Concept
Formulate
an Operating
Strategy
Service
Delivery
System
Four Core Strategic Elements
What does the service actually
look like on the ground?
What do your routines and procedures
actually look like when implemented?

18. 18A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
Service Breakthroughs
Target
Market
Segments
Develop a
Service
Concept
Formulate
an Operating
Strategy
Service
Delivery
System
Four Core Strategic Elements
Three Integrative Elements

19. 19A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
Service Breakthroughs
Position
the
Service
Target
Market
Segments
Develop a
Service
Concept
Formulate
an Operating
Strategy
Service
Delivery
System
Four Core Strategic Elements
Three Integrative Elements
How will you position and brand your
service in the marketplace?
How will customers understand the
service relative to their other options?

20. 20A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
Service Breakthroughs
Position
the
Service
Leverage
“Value” Over
Costs
Target
Market
Segments
Develop a
Service
Concept
Formulate
an Operating
Strategy
Service
Delivery
System
Four Core Strategic Elements
Three Integrative Elements
What additional
features can you
offer at a profit?

21. 21A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
Service Breakthroughs
Position
the
Service
Leverage
“Value” Over
Costs
Strategy/
System
Integration
Target
Market
Segments
Develop a
Service
Concept
Formulate
an Operating
Strategy
Service
Delivery
System
Four Core Strategic Elements
Three Integrative Elements
Does the reality of your experience match your theory or concept?

22. The Mission Group helps clients
understand how to focus on these
elements so they can achieve
their own ambitious goals.

23. 23A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
The Elements of Strategy
If your goal is to deploy transit so as to shape a region’s growth
and provide a desirable alternative to driving, then you have to
understand the relationship among four strategic elements.

24. 24A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
The Elements of Strategy
If your goal is to deploy transit so as to shape a region’s growth
and provide a desirable alternative to driving, then you have to
understand the relationship among four strategic elements.
Market
Behavior
What
segments of
the market
respond in
what ways?
Who Makes
What Choices

25. 25A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
The Elements of Strategy
If your goal is to deploy transit so as to shape a region’s growth
and provide a desirable alternative to driving, then you have to
understand the relationship among four strategic elements.
Revenue
Drivers
What
dimensions of
service create
value for
clients?
Market
Behavior
What
segments of
the market
respond in
what ways?
Leverage
Value over
Cost
Who Makes
What Choices

26. 26A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
The Elements of Strategy
If your goal is to deploy transit so as to shape a region’s growth
and provide a desirable alternative to driving, then you have to
understand the relationship among four strategic elements.
Cost
Structure
Where are
costs
generated in
the provision
of services?
Revenue
Drivers
What
dimensions of
service create
value for
clients?
Market
Behavior
What
segments of
the market
respond in
what ways?
Make Costs
Work for You
Leverage
Value over
Cost
Who Makes
What Choices

27. 27A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
The Elements of Strategy
If your goal is to deploy transit so as to shape a region’s growth
and provide a desirable alternative to driving, then you have to
understand the relationship among four strategic elements.
Cost
Structure
Where are
costs
generated in
the provision
of services?
Revenue
Drivers
What
dimensions of
service create
value for
clients?
Market
Behavior
What
segments of
the market
respond in
what ways?
Competitive
Environment
How well do
competing
choices create
value for
clients?
Make Costs
Work for You
Leverage
Value over
Cost
Who Makes
What Choices
Where to Gain
Competitive
Advantage

28. Many public transit agencies find it hard
to embrace a market focus because they
are pulled in two different directions.
But a focus on the market can help
these same agencies identify projects
that can reduce ongoing operating
costs and boost revenues, as well
as build their political base.

29. Many public transit agencies find it hard
to embrace a market focus because they
are pulled in two different directions.
But a focus on the market can help
these same agencies identify projects
that can reduce ongoing operating
costs and boost revenues, as well
as build their political base.

30. 30A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
The Need of the
Broader
Market
The Basic Market Trade-Off
Save
Time
Save
Time

31. 31A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
The Need of the
Broader
Market
Focus of Most
Transit
in U.S.
The Basic Market Trade-Off
Save
Time
Save
Time
Save
Money
Save
Money

32. 32A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
The Need of the
Broader
Market
Focus of Most
Transit
in U.S.
The Basic Market Trade-Off
Save
Time
Save
Time
Save
Money
Save
Moneyvs.
Most U.S. transit systems are part of the social service system,
providing mobility to those who can’t afford other options. In
sustainable cities, transit is designed to meet the needs of a broader
market, much of which leads busy lives and wants to save time.

33. Einstein
discovers
that time
is actually
money.

34. Many transit agencies turn to
modal solutions to attempt to bridge
the gap between their two markets.
Does that always work?

35. Many transit agencies turn to
modal solutions to attempt to bridge
the gap between their two markets.
Does that always work?

36. 36A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
How Do We Attract New Riders?
One
common
strategy:
Build
light rail
systems.
…But does
that always
work?

37. Case Study:
San Diego’s Light Rail (Trolley)

38. 38A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Below
$15k
$15k -
<$25k
$25k -
<$50k
$50k -
<$75k
$75k -
<$100k
$100k
and Up
San Diego Transit Riders, 2009
MTS
Bus
Househo
ld
Income
Source: SANDAG,
“Results of the 2009
Onboard Transit
Passenger Survey
for the San Diego
Region,”
(February, 2011).
MTS Bus
riders are
overwhelm-
ingly low
income.

39. 39A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
The
Commuter
Rail attracts
a much
higher-
income
ridership.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Below
$15k
$15k -
<$25k
$25k -
<$50k
$50k -
<$75k
$75k -
<$100k
$100k
and Up
San Diego Transit Riders, 2009
MTS
Bus
Commuter
Rail
Household
Income
Source: SANDAG,
“Results of the 2009
Onboard Transit
Passenger Survey for
the San Diego Region,”
(February, 2011).

40. 40A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Below
$15k
$15k -
<$25k
$25k -
<$50k
$50k -
<$75k
$75k -
<$100k
$100k
and Up
San Diego Transit Riders, 2009
MTS
Bus
Commuter
Rail
Freeway
Bus
Househo
ld
Income
Source: SANDAG,
“Results of the 2009
Onboard Transit
Passenger Survey
for the San Diego
Region,”
(February, 2011).
Premium
Express
(freeway)
buses attract
the same
market as the
commuter
rail.

41. 41A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
San Diego Transit Riders, 2009
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Below
$15k
$15k -
<$25k
$25k -
<$50k
$50k -
<$75k
$75k -
<$100k
$100k
and Up
MTS
Bus
Light
Rail
Commuter
Rail
Freeway
Bus
Househo
ld
Income
Source: SANDAG,
“Results of the 2009
Onboard Transit
Passenger Survey
for the San Diego
Region,”
(February, 2011).
The San
Diego Trolley
(light rail)
attracts the
identical low-
income
market of
the MTS Bus.

42. San Diego’s light rail trolley does not
attract appreciable numbers of riders
from the middle-income market.
Does it at least attract choice riders?

43. San Diego’s light rail trolley does not
attract appreciable numbers of riders
from the middle-income market.
Does it at least attract choice riders?

44. 44A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
“Choice Riders” on the Trolley
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
City
Bus
(25%)
0% 1995 2003
% of Trolley Riders Who “Had an Auto Available” for Their Trip
2009
Source: SANDAG

45. 45A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
“Choice Riders” on the Trolley
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
City
Bus
(25%)
0% 1995 2003
% of Trolley Riders Who “Had an Auto Available” for Their Trip
2009
Source: SANDAG

46. 46A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
“Choice Riders” on the Trolley
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
City
Bus
(25%)
0% 1995 2003
% of Trolley Riders Who “Had an Auto Available” for Their Trip
2009
Source: SANDAG

47. 47A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
“Choice Riders” on the Trolley
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
City
Bus
(25%)
0% 1995 2003
% of Trolley Riders Who “Had an Auto Available” for Their Trip
2009
Source: SANDAG
As popular as the Trolley is,
it isn’t attracting a large
number of additional people
from their cars, even with
major expansions. Why not?
As popular as the Trolley is,
it isn’t attracting a large
number of additional people
from their cars, even with
major expansions. Why not?

48. San Diego’s light rail is generally well-
regarded, efficient, and politically
popular. So why isn’t it achieving a
breakthrough into the choice market?

49. Because what the customer wanted
wasn’t a specific mode; it was an
alternative that was competitive with their
current (driving and parking) options.

50. 50A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
Who’s Transit For?
Yugo BMW=
Is there a difference in what people value?
And can we use these differences to drive a whole new
business model—and planning model—for transit services?
?

51. In order to know how to attract
people to transit, you need to know
how to design transit that people
will use in appreciable numbers.
You need to do market research.

52. In order to know how to attract
people to transit, you need to know
how to design transit that people
will use in appreciable numbers.
You need to do market research.

53. 53A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
What Factors Drive a
Person’s Choice of Mode?
Why Do Market Research?
It’s relatively easy to design transit services. It’s more difficult
to design services that will attract a broader base of riders.

54. 54A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
What Factors Drive a
Person’s Choice of Mode?
Why Do Market Research?
Need for
Flexibility
and Speed
It’s relatively easy to design transit services. It’s more difficult
to design services that will attract a broader base of riders.

55. 55A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
What Factors Drive a
Person’s Choice of Mode?
Why Do Market Research?
Need for
Flexibility
and Speed
Sensitivity to
Personal
Travel
Experience
It’s relatively easy to design transit services. It’s more difficult
to design services that will attract a broader base of riders.

56. 56A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
What Factors Drive a
Person’s Choice of Mode?
Why Do Market Research?
Need for
Flexibility
and Speed
Sensitivity to
Personal
Travel
Experience
Concern for
Personal
Safety
It’s relatively easy to design transit services. It’s more difficult
to design services that will attract a broader base of riders.

57. 57A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
What Factors Drive a
Person’s Choice of Mode?
Why Do Market Research?
Need for
Flexibility
and Speed
Sensitivity to
Personal
Travel
Experience
Concern for
the Natural
Environment/
Pollution
Concern for
Personal
Safety
It’s relatively easy to design transit services. It’s more difficult
to design services that will attract a broader base of riders.

58. 58A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
What Factors Drive a
Person’s Choice of Mode?
Why Do Market Research?
Need for
Flexibility
and Speed
Sensitivity to
Personal
Travel
Experience
Concern for
the Natural
Environment/
Pollution
Concern for
Personal
Safety
Sensitivity to
Transporta-
tion Costs
It’s relatively easy to design transit services. It’s more difficult
to design services that will attract a broader base of riders.

59. 59A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
What Factors Drive a
Person’s Choice of Mode?
Why Do Market Research?
Need for
Flexibility
and Speed
Sensitivity to
Personal
Travel
Experience
Concern for
the Natural
Environment/
Pollution
Concern for
Personal
Safety
Sensitivity to
Transporta-
tion Costs
Desire to
Reduce or
Avoid Stress
It’s relatively easy to design transit services. It’s more difficult
to design services that will attract a broader base of riders.

60. 60A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
What Factors Drive a
Person’s Choice of Mode?
Why Do Market Research?
Need for
Flexibility
and Speed
Sensitivity to
Personal
Travel
Experience
Concern for
the Natural
Environment/
Pollution
Concern for
Personal
Safety
Sensitivity to
Transporta-
tion Costs
Desire to
Reduce or
Avoid Stress
Sensitivity to
Frequency of
Transit
It’s relatively easy to design transit services. It’s more difficult
to design services that will attract a broader base of riders.

61. 61A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
What Factors Drive a
Person’s Choice of Mode?
Why Do Market Research?
Need for
Flexibility
and Speed
Sensitivity to
Personal
Travel
Experience
Concern for
the Natural
Environment/
Pollution
Concern for
Personal
Safety
Sensitivity to
Transporta-
tion Costs
Desire to
Reduce or
Avoid Stress
Sensitivity to
Frequency of
Transit
Willingness to
Walk Longer
Distances
It’s relatively easy to design transit services. It’s more difficult
to design services that will attract a broader base of riders.

62. 62A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
What Factors Drive a
Person’s Choice of Mode?
Why Do Market Research?
Need for
Flexibility
and Speed
Sensitivity to
Personal
Travel
Experience
Concern for
the Natural
Environment/
Pollution
Concern for
Personal
Safety
Sensitivity to
Transporta-
tion Costs
Concern with
Use of
Personal Time
Desire to
Reduce or
Avoid Stress
Sensitivity to
Frequency of
Transit
Willingness to
Walk Longer
Distances
It’s relatively easy to design transit services. It’s more difficult
to design services that will attract a broader base of riders.

63. 63A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
What Factors Drive a
Person’s Choice of Mode?
Why Do Market Research?
Need for
Flexibility
and Speed
Sensitivity to
Personal
Travel
Experience
Concern for
the Natural
Environment/
Pollution
Concern for
Personal
Safety
Sensitivity to
Transporta-
tion Costs
Concern with
Use of
Personal Time
Desire to
Avoid
Crowding
Desire to
Reduce or
Avoid Stress
Sensitivity to
Frequency of
Transit
Willingness to
Walk Longer
Distances
It’s relatively easy to design transit services. It’s more difficult
to design services that will attract a broader base of riders.

64. 64A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
The Transportation Market
Low High
Need for Flexibility and Speed
LowHigh
Sensitivity
to Personal
Travel
Experience
2000 San Diego Market Research Study
We found that the
two attributes that
most distinguished
different market
segments were a
person’s need for
flexibility and
speed and their
“sensitivity to their
personal travel
experience,” which
was a psycho-
social factor.

65. 65A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
The Transportation Market
Low High
Need for Flexibility and Speed
LowHigh
Sensitivity
to Personal
Travel
Experience
2000 San Diego Market Research Study
We were able to
identify six distinct
market segments.
Each responded
differently to the
factors we
normally consider
(in-vehicle time,
access time,
transfers, wait
time, costs, etc.)
when projecting
modal choice.
Conventional
Cruisers
Easy-
Goers
Road
Runners
Cautious
Runabouts
Cautious
Runabouts
Intrepid
Trekkers
Flex
Fly
Flexible
Flyers
Study conducted for the
San Diego MTDB by
Cambridge Systematics,
Inc., under the direction of
The Mission Group

66. We were then able to locate these
six segments across the San Diego region.
They are not evenly distributed,
but rather are clustered.
This makes it possible to target
different areas with services tailored
to that area’s population mix.

67. We were then able to locate these
six segments across the San Diego region.
They are not evenly distributed,
but rather are clustered.
This makes it possible to target
different areas with services tailored
to that area’s population mix.

68. We were then able to locate these
six segments across the San Diego region.
They are not evenly distributed,
but rather are clustered.
This makes it possible to target
different areas with services tailored
to that area’s population mix.

69. 69A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
Market Segment Breakdown
Segment
Road
Runners Hi Hi
Cautious
Runabouts Hi Med
Intrepid
Trekkers Hi Med
Flexible
Flyers Hi Low
Conventional
Cruisers Low Hi
Easy-
Goers Low Low
Needs
Flex/
Speed
Sensitivity
to Travel
Experience
Road
Runners Hi Hi
Cautious
Runabouts Hi Med
Intrepid
Trekkers Hi Med
Flexible
Flyers Hi Low
Conventional
Cruisers Low Hi
Easy-
Goers Low Low

70. We also learned that
one size did not fit all.
We asked, what does a minute
of walking time feel like?
How do people weigh that
additional minute?

71. We also learned that
one size did not fit all.
We asked, what does a minute
of walking time feel like?
How do people weigh that
additional minute?

72. 72A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
Walking Time
Market segments can vary widely in their sensitivity
to different design variables. One size does not fit all.
What Does 1 Minute of Walking Time Feel Like?
0
1
2
3
4
Road
Runners
Cautious
Runabouts
Intrepid
Trekkers
Flexible
Flyers
Conventional
Cruisers
Easy-Goers
Market Segment
PerceivedMinutes
5
Commute Trip

73. 73A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
Walking Time
Too many regional travel models use a single set of coefficients for
commute and non-commute trips. This can lead to distortions in
ridership projections and, more importantly, in service planning.
What Does 1 Minute of Walking Time Feel Like?
0
1
2
3
4
Road
Runners
Cautious
Runabouts
Intrepid
Trekkers
Flexible
Flyers
Conventional
Cruisers
Easy-Goers
Market Segment
PerceivedMinutes
5
Commute Trip
Non-Commute Trip

74. 74A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
Waiting Time
Again, not every market segment treats
a minute of wait time the same.
What Does 1 Minute of Waiting Time Feel Like?
(Commuting Trip)
0
1
2
3
4
5
Road
Runners
Cautious
Runabouts
Intrepid
Trekkers
Flexible
Flyers
Conventional
Cruisers
Easy-Goers
Market Segment
PerceivedMinutes

75. 75A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
Analyzing Alternatives
On the basis of market research, The Mission Group developed a
sophisticated yet easy-to-use analysis tool to help its client compare
alternatives and understand why they performed the way they did.

76. 76A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
Findings of Market Research
Relative impact
of different
transit service
features on
“mode split” for
9-mile
commute.

77. 77A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
Findings of Market Research
5%
10%
How much does “mode” matter?
Bus LRT
Bus at
LRT
Speed
Relative impact
of different
transit service
features on
“mode split” for
9-mile
commute.
Full
BRT

78. 78A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
Findings of Market Research
5%
10%
How much does “mode” matter?
Bus LRT
Bus at
LRT
Speed
Full
BRT
5%
10%
10
MPH
15
MPH
25
MPH
40
MPH
Relative impact
of different
transit service
features on
“mode split” for
9-mile
commute.
How much does speed matter?

79. 79A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
Findings of Market Research
5%
10%
How much does “mode” matter?
Bus LRT
Bus at
LRT
Speed
5%
10%
10
MPH
15
MPH
25
MPH
40
MPH
5%
10%
15 Min.
Wait
10 Min.
Wait
Relative impact
of different
transit service
features on
“mode split” for
9-mile
commute.
How much does speed matter?
Does frequency matter?
Full
BRT

80. 80A Market-Focused Paradigm for Public Transit, pt. 1: Challenging Our Preconceptions© 1998-2013 by The Mission Group. All rights reserved.
Findings of Market Research
5%
10%
How much does “mode” matter?
Bus LRT
Bus at
LRT
Speed
5%
10%
10
MPH
15
MPH
25
MPH
40
MPH
5%
10%
15 Min.
Wait
10 Min.
Wait
5%
10%
Relative impact
of different
transit service
features on
“mode split” for
9-mile
commute.
How much does speed matter?
Single
Transfer
No
Transfer
Do transfers hurt?Does frequency matter?
Full
BRT

81. Does your modeling reflect
your actual market?
The Mission Group has helped several
regions better understand their markets
and then improve the fit between their
modeling and their planning so that they
can better attract and capture new riders.

82. THE MISSION GROUP
3725 Talbot Street, Suite E • San Diego, California 92106 USA
+1 (619) 232-1776 • info@missionconsult.com
Transit
Network
Reviews
Transit
Planning
Support
Transit Market
& Ridership
Studies
Customer
Experience
Audits
Innovative
Alternatives
Generation
Long-Term
Vision Plans
& Strategies
“Quickway”
Network
Proposals
Presentations
and
White Papers
Workshops
and Seminars
We’re the transit market experts.