1. Gartner Webinars
Technology Trends
You Can’t Afford to Ignore
Raymond Paquet,
Managing Vice President
2. Welcome!
Thank you for joining this Gartner webinar.
Today's topic is
“Technology Trends You Can’t Afford to Ignore. "
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1
4. 10 Trends to Watch — Carefully
2011 2012 2013
1 Virtualization
2011
2 Data Deluge
3 Energy and Green IT Mid-2011
4 Complex Resource
Tracking
2011–2012
5 Consumerization
and Social Software
6 Unified
Communications 2012
7 Mobile and Wireless
8 System Density
2012–2013
9 Mashups and
Portals
10 Cloud Computing
5. 1
Virtualization
? Did You Know?
Percent Power Used: Typical x86 Server
Doing Nothing
6. 1
Virtualization
Applications Infrastructure How does it affect you?
• IT becomes one logical system
• Changing how IT is used
Dimensions of • Additional "power" on demand
Virtualization • Mgmt. Players: VMware, Microsoft
Hyper-V, Citrix
• Plays well with green IT
• SMBs — ease of migration
Server Next Monday Morning
Hardware
Virtualization Virtualization Review consolidation plans; can we do
Storage
more? Do you have all the virtualization
Virtualization
bases covered? Do we have a plan?
Desktop
Critical Timeframe
Network
Virtualization Now
Virtualization
7. 1
Virtualization — The New Client
How does it affect you?
• Long-term, flexible workforce
• Reduced operating complexity
Application Application Application
• Standards alignment, audit and control
PC OS PC OS PC OS
VMM
Next Monday Morning
Server Hardware
Evaluate multiple options — create test
environments
Hosted Virtual Desktops
Get end users involved for real-world
• Architectural equivalent of the blade PC
analysis
• Full "thick client" image, thin-client
delivery model Critical Timeframe
2011
Portable Personalities
• Carry the bubble, not the hardware
• Portable media, stored on the network
• Bubbles of various sizes, some with OS,
some without
8. 2
Data Deluge
? Did You Know?
Estimated Enterprise Data Growth in Five Years?
80% Will be Unstructured!
9. 2
Data Deluge
How does it affect you?
• Complexity continues — regardless of
budget constraints
• Demand driven — more access creates
more data — this will get worse
• Compliance, backup, audit, security
Next Monday Morning
• Virtualize storage quickly
• Deduplication soon
Key Technologies
• Evaluate all data inputs
• Thin provisioning
• Keep only what you need
• Data deduplication
• Segment and prioritize
• Automated tiering
Critical Timeframe
• HSM principles Now
• Virtual tape
10. 3
Energy and Green IT
How does it affect you?
Useful Work • Increased awareness/focus on power
PPE =
Total Facility Power • Compute to consumption ratios critical
• EU or EPA metrics are coming
How Much Work Can My IT
Equipment Do, In My Facility? • New KPIs based on efficiency
Source: Gartner Inc. Next Monday Morning
• Begin evaluation of PUE and/or PPE
• Power to Performance Effectiveness (PPE) • Begin continuous improvement
planning
• Forced review of IT efficiency
• Focus on consumption, rather than
• Intersection between facilities and IT technologies
• Moved the power issue up the food chain Critical Timeframe
2010–2011
• Corporate social responsibility
11. 4
Complex Resource Tracking
• Monitor Energy consumption. How does it affect you?
• Visualize power consumption of resources. • New KPIs based on power
• Automate energy usage to optimal levels. • New vendors and skills needed
• Dynamically move workloads. Next Monday Morning
• Get to know your facilities team
• Begin market research
• Watch EPA and EMU Initiatives
Critical Timeframe
2012–2013
Source: Aperture
12. 5
Consumerization and Social Software
What was the fastest growing social network in 2008?
%
62% of New Users are between 39 and 51
13. Social Software: A Factor Inside 5
and Outside the Enterprise
How does it affect you?
The Distributed Social Web
The Distributed Social Web • It's affecting you now, and increasing
rapidly
• Early pattern detection
Social collaboration • The "Collective" matters
- Wikis Next Monday Morning
- Blogs • Establish rules of engagement
- Facebook
• Begin monitoring, look for signals
- Twitter
Social media • Begin participating
- Content sharing (tags) • Bring a social dimension to your internal
- Content aggregation and external websites
Social validation Critical Timeframe
- Social rating, ranking, commentary 2011–2013
- Social content structure
- The collective
14. Unified Communications 6
and Collaboration
?
Did You Know?
The number of text
messages sent in
the past 24 hours…
15. Unified Communications 6
and Collaboration
>6,700,000,000
..exceeded the total
population of the planet.
16. Unified Communications
6
and Collaboration
How does it affect you?
Email
• Combines many overlapping areas
Wireless
Workspaces
• A technology and organizational issue.
VOIP
• Strong area for managed services to
Text
/SMS take hold
Unified VTC Next Monday Morning
Communications • Are your apps providers planning for
Tightly integrated taking advantage of unified
communications communications? What's their strategy?
applications • What other UC business scenarios make
IM ATC sense in your business?
Critical Timeframe
Mobility
2012–2014
Presence
PBX
17. 7
Mobile and Wireless
How does it affect you?
• Mobile applications need new
servers for delivery
• Application delivery complexity
• Immature management tools
• The next target for virtualization
Next Monday Morning
• What's your strategy for supporting
mobile applications?
• Look at mobile apps as a critical
enabler of client interaction, and
satisfaction
Thousands of new applications
are coming online. Critical Timeframe
2011–2013
Text messaging is not a
convenience, it's a way of life.
18. 8
System Density
?
Did You Know?
"At current pricing, the operating
expense (energy) to support an
x86 server will exceed the cost of
that server …"
… within three years!
19. 8
System Density
? Did You Know?
Energy cost per year can exceed:
for just two racks of servers.
20. Blades Are Leading Toward
8
Componentized Servers
Blades = Servers
2009 Today, blades are proprietary
server-infrastructure-in-a-
chassis solutions…
…but they are evolving into
componentized, data-center-
Blades = Servers, storage
in-a-chassis solutions
switches, memory, I/O…
(but still mostly proprietary).
2013+
21. 8
System Density
How does it affect you?
Server and Power Growth • Virtualization is critical to success
70 • Trend is high-density, high use of
floor space
60
• Utilization levels and compute to
50 energy ratios paramount by 2010
40 Next Monday Morning
30 • Analyze asset use (highs and lows).
20
• Map server growth to energy and
cooling required
10
• Engage facilities team
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Critical Timeframe
2011–2012
New Server ($B) Power and Cooling ($B) Install Base M)
22. 9
Mashups and Enterprise Portals
How does it affect you?
• Customers doing this today
• Unrecognized business processes
• Creeping standards, uncontrolled
Enterprise value • Internal and external sources
- Private cloud enabler Next Monday Morning
- Rapid/flexible development • Evaluate use; highlight the best
Application types • Set clear standards — encourage
- Packaged application extension innovation
- Personal portal delivery Critical Timeframe
- Location awareness 2011-2012
Integration patterns
- Visualization integration
- Content integration
- Gadget page space co-location
23. 10
Cloud Computing
How does it affect you?
Cloud Computing • Common services are available now —
A style of computing where may reduce operating expenses
scalable and elastic IT-enabled • Private clouds improve agility and
will dominate
capabilities are delivered as a
• Focus on service levels
service to customers using
• Ignore the hype — focus on results
Internet technologies
Next Monday Morning
• Evaluate commodity services you
provide and what can move to the cloud
• Evaluate cloud delivery model for
internal use
• Categorize applications/services based
on SLAs and risk before proceeding
Critical Timeframe
2012–2014
24. 10
Private Clouds
Through 2012, IT organizations will invest more on private cloud
services than on external cloud providers.
Reasons for Private Cloud Reasons for Public Cloud
• Low barrier to entry • Scale on demand
• Elastic and scalable • Increased agility and flexibility
• Lower cost and pay per use • Pay per use
• Increased agility (to customers) • Higher compute capacities
• Ease of sourcing migrations • Elasticity
• Many cloud benefits — • Time to market
reduced risks
25. Future Challenge:
10
Managing Cloud Sourcing
Client/server: customer-driven Service Brokers
• Costs skyrocketed, little integration • Small enterprises
• Evolution of today's
system integrators, VARs
• Orchestrates cloud
providers to meet needs
• Industry-specific, etc.
Dynamic Sourcing Team
• Large enterprises
• New team, new skills
Cloud computing: going around IT (business- and IT-savvy)
• Lots of choices, little integration, little • Manages day-to-day
understanding of real service requirements sourcing decisions
• Failures will be rampant, unless IT involved
26. Action Plan
• Today
- Focus on virtualization and green IT for immediate cost and flexibility benefits.
- Look at storage virtualization, deduplication and thin provisioning.
- Evaluate Web social software to transform customer/employee interactions.
• The Next 18 Months
- Exploit mashups and cloud-based services to address immediate user needs.
- Link UC to collaboration and enterprise applications to support growth
initiatives.
- Begin to track weak signals and subtle business patterns — from everywhere.
• Longer Term
- Public and private cloud services together with new servers and specialized
systems promise to minimize costs and maximize agility.
- Apply more-sophisticated resource analytics to support ongoing improvement
in operational costs and energy efficiency.
- Look for opportunities emerging from cloud computing, social networking and
new approaches to infrastructure.
27. Related Gartner Research
Magic Quadrant for Unified Communications
1 September 2009, ID Number: G00169996
Run Book Automation Reaches the Peak of
Inflated Expectations
20 August 2009, ID:G00169977 — David Williams
Modernize Your Data Center Network by Virtualizing
Network Functions
24 August 2009, ID:G00166882 — Neil Rickard
Data Center Efficiency and Capacity: A Metric to
Calculate Both
18 September 2009, ID:G00164493 — Dave Cappuccio
The Spectrum of Public-to-Private Cloud Computing
14 May 2009, ID:G00167187 — Tom Bittman
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