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Strengths and weaknesses in risk assessments Presentation at Transportforum Linköping, Sweden, 2010-01-14 Markus Lundkvist, Risk analyst Swedish Maritime Administration
Aim ,[object Object]
SMA tasks and and budgeted costs 2009 Pilotage 47 M€ Maritime Traffic Information 6 M€ Fairways and Aids to Navigation  30 M€  Icebreaking 25 M€ Cartography 7 M€ Search and Rescue 27 M€ Transport policy and regulations 10 M€ Administration 25 M€ ----------------- Appr 177 M€
Etymology of risk ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Early risk assessment / management ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Definition of Risk Assessment in this presentation Step 1 Hazard indentification Step 2 Risk assessment Step 3 Risk control options Step 4 Cost benefit  assessment Step 5 Decision making  recommendations Decision makers
Strategic and operational risk assessment - VTS Risk Control Measures / Options Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) Regulation of  VTS  area and service  (Swedish Transport Agency) IMO - Formal Safety Assessment Guidelines Goal  Maritime safety VTS provides valuable services to mariners  (Swedish Maritime Administration) Collisions, groundings and contacts are avoided Strategic risk assessment Operational risk assessment
Present VTS areas
Källa :  IALA Recommendation V-119, s. 12
 
 
HazID Farled/ Hamn Område i farled/hamn Riktning Olyckstyp Bakomliggande orsaker Fartyg som ffa kan vara inblandade (typ, storlek, lots ombord etc) På vad baseras bedömningen (inträffad händelse eller identifierat möjligt scenario) 1 Yttre området Väst/syd på Trubaduren In / ut Kollision / närsituation Osäkerhet vilken bordningsposition som skall användas. Samtliga ftg som är på väg till och från Göteborg eller yttre ankarrutor Inträffad händelse. Utgående ftg  kan vara ovetande om inkommande fartygs intentioner. Och/eller anta att ftg är på väg till annan bordningsposition än vad som är tänkt. 2 Yttre området Väst/syd på Trubaduren In / ut Kollision / närsituation Manövrering vid embarkering / debarkering av Lots. Ftg kan göra oväntade manövrar för övrig trafik, nedsaktningar / oväntade girar. Pga. att fokus flyttas från sjövägsreglerna till att ta ombord lots. Samtliga ftg som är på väg till och från Göteborg eller yttre ankarrutor Inträffad händelse. Upphinnande ftg som är under omkörning av lotspliktigt ftg (som här skyldigt att hålla kurs och fart) kan plötsligt göra oväntade manövrar. Dessa situationer uppstår även för utgående trafik, men dock ej lika frekvent. Även lämnandet av lots anses "lindrigare".
Source: Report above.
Defective radio  watch Too late radio call  Pomerania Rio Grande Poor cooperation Fear for  engine alarm? Too late speed  reduction Acceptance of a  too narrow margin  in distance  Causes/factors  Neglecting the  AB´s warnings Too vague change of course  All steering gears  were not running Concentration on  telephone call Limited experience? High confidence  in the radar COLLISION Vessel on  starboard?  Limited education? Nonchalance? Wrong radio  channel ? Nonchalance? ? Too much respect Too much respect Routine/  Obligation? ? ? ? Poor  cooperation Neglecting the  AB´s warnings ? Act/Event Act/Event Causes/factors
1. Anomaly in ship position, draught, course, speed, (or in waterway) 2. Anomaly becomes observable for VTSO 3. VTSO becomes aware of the situation 4. VTSO calls ship to inform or to ask about intention 5. Bridge team understands the question/information  6. Bridge team undertakes appropriate measures 7. Anomaly is corrected with sufficient marginal to avoid accident 2.  Slight delay in radar, AIS, information  from  mariners 3. Workload, experience, operational procedures 4. Communication means 5. Workload, status 6. Situational awareness and correct action 7. Ship manoeuvrability , fairway size and configuration
Event tree 1. Anomaly in ship position, draught, course, speed, (or in waterway) 2. Anomaly becomes observable for VTSO 3. VTSO becomes aware of the situation 4. VTSO calls ship to inform or to ask about intention 5. Bridge team understands the question/information  6. Bridge team undertakes appropriate measures 7. Anomaly is corrected with sufficient marginal to avoid accident Yes p=? Yes p=? Yes p=? Yes p=? Yes p=? Yes p=? Yes p=? Yes p=? Yes p=? Yes p=? Yes p=? No p=? Yes p=? Yes p=? Yes p=? Yes p=? No p=? Yes p=? Yes p=? Yes p=? No p=? Yes p=? Yes p=? No p=? Yes p=? No p=? No p=?
Evaluation VTS –accident investigation reports, the Sound
Claims data 2000-2009 H&M, LoH  Swedish Club Probability: 1 SAFEDOR (2007) Swedish data Probability:  Sw. Accident dbase ASEK 4 (SIKA, 2009) Probability:  1 Assumption of average delay ASEK 4 (SIKA, 2009) FSA Guidelines Probability:  Sw. Accident dbase Claims data 2000-2009 (contact, P&I)  Swedish Club Probability: 1 (contact) Negligible in most cases . Estimation approach CASUALTYID SUBCLASS CATEGORY DATEOFLOSS TOTAL _100_USD MAINDEDUCT_USD CLAIMDETAILS VESSELTYPE 20000001 Hull and Machinery Insurance Collision 01-jan-00 75265 41088 C/W BERGEN ARROW AT DURBAN  ROAD  Container 20000004 Hull and Machinery Insurance Collision 04-jan-00 2526 100000 COLLISION WITH PORT ARTHUR  AT NEW ORLEANS  Bulker 20000005 Hull and Machinery Insurance Collision 07-jan-00 2332 75000 C/W NEW HAI HUNG AT HONG KONG  Bulker 20000008 Hull and Machinery Insurance Collision 11-jan-00 2474 100000 COLLISION WITH ATLAS AT  CADIZ  Dry Cargo 20000009 Hull and Machinery Insurance Collision 12-jan-00 326009 35000 C/W PASADENA UNIVERSAL  Bulker 20000013 Hull and Machinery Insurance Collision 20-jan-00 266221 70000 ENTANGLED PROPELLER AND C/W  VENTO DE MELTIMI AT ALEXANDRIA  Dry Cargo 20000046 Hull and Machinery Insurance Collision 21-feb-00 4262 67500 STRUCK BULKWAYU AT  MARACAIBO  Dry Cargo 20000062 Hull and Machinery Insurance Collision 09-feb-00 60397 45000 C/W TUG PIONEER AND BARGE AT  SEMARANG  Container 20000108 Hull and Machinery Insurance Collision 16-mar-00 493 39807 COLLISION WITH MAERSK CASTRIES  AT FREEPORT BAHAMAS  Container
Some strengths and weaknesses
Human factor in risk assessment Strategic risk assessment Operational risk assessment
Hazard identification  Human factor  (based on STA report ” Summary of reported marine casualties”, 2008) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Frequency assessment - models? RCMs impact on: Lateral distribution Grounding candidates Causation factor
Frequency assessment –  Reported accidents involving Swedish and foreign ships per port call in Sweden Sources:  Swedish Maritime Safety Inspectorate, 2002 /Swedish Transport Agency, 2008: Sjöolyckor i svenska farvatten.  Swedish Maritime Administration, 2008: Sektorrapport.Sjöfartens utveckling 2008.
Consequence assessment -  Source : ITOPF, 2009: Oil tanker spill statistics 2008. Spills over 700 tonnes. Oil transported and number of oil spills > 7 tonnes.
Some strengths and weaknesses in FSA FSA step Strengths  Weaknesses Hazard identification Widened knowledge of accident scenarios Structured identification  Limited insight Simplification of causal chains Risk Assessment (Frequency, probability) Estimation of probability – good decision Changing system (rules, technology, traffic regime) Geographically (and poor) statistics Risk assessment (Consequences) Impact distribution on different values Monetary value Limit of accident impact Risk Control Options Limited Limited insight in combinations Limited number of RCMs evaluated Limited insight in effect Cost-Benefit Assessment Effectiveness approach Rough costs, poor data, sensitive to state of market
Final questions When are collisions and groundings predictable? For whom are they predictable? When is the accident probability 1? Differences - operational and strategic risk assessments? What strengths and weaknesses in risk assessments have You identified? What are the similarities and differences compared to medievial risk assessment?
Final message ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Thank You for Your attention!

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Session 42 Markus Lundkvist

  • 1. Strengths and weaknesses in risk assessments Presentation at Transportforum Linköping, Sweden, 2010-01-14 Markus Lundkvist, Risk analyst Swedish Maritime Administration
  • 2.
  • 3. SMA tasks and and budgeted costs 2009 Pilotage 47 M€ Maritime Traffic Information 6 M€ Fairways and Aids to Navigation 30 M€ Icebreaking 25 M€ Cartography 7 M€ Search and Rescue 27 M€ Transport policy and regulations 10 M€ Administration 25 M€ ----------------- Appr 177 M€
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6. Definition of Risk Assessment in this presentation Step 1 Hazard indentification Step 2 Risk assessment Step 3 Risk control options Step 4 Cost benefit assessment Step 5 Decision making recommendations Decision makers
  • 7. Strategic and operational risk assessment - VTS Risk Control Measures / Options Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) Regulation of VTS area and service (Swedish Transport Agency) IMO - Formal Safety Assessment Guidelines Goal Maritime safety VTS provides valuable services to mariners (Swedish Maritime Administration) Collisions, groundings and contacts are avoided Strategic risk assessment Operational risk assessment
  • 9. Källa : IALA Recommendation V-119, s. 12
  • 10.  
  • 11.  
  • 12. HazID Farled/ Hamn Område i farled/hamn Riktning Olyckstyp Bakomliggande orsaker Fartyg som ffa kan vara inblandade (typ, storlek, lots ombord etc) På vad baseras bedömningen (inträffad händelse eller identifierat möjligt scenario) 1 Yttre området Väst/syd på Trubaduren In / ut Kollision / närsituation Osäkerhet vilken bordningsposition som skall användas. Samtliga ftg som är på väg till och från Göteborg eller yttre ankarrutor Inträffad händelse. Utgående ftg kan vara ovetande om inkommande fartygs intentioner. Och/eller anta att ftg är på väg till annan bordningsposition än vad som är tänkt. 2 Yttre området Väst/syd på Trubaduren In / ut Kollision / närsituation Manövrering vid embarkering / debarkering av Lots. Ftg kan göra oväntade manövrar för övrig trafik, nedsaktningar / oväntade girar. Pga. att fokus flyttas från sjövägsreglerna till att ta ombord lots. Samtliga ftg som är på väg till och från Göteborg eller yttre ankarrutor Inträffad händelse. Upphinnande ftg som är under omkörning av lotspliktigt ftg (som här skyldigt att hålla kurs och fart) kan plötsligt göra oväntade manövrar. Dessa situationer uppstår även för utgående trafik, men dock ej lika frekvent. Även lämnandet av lots anses "lindrigare".
  • 14. Defective radio watch Too late radio call Pomerania Rio Grande Poor cooperation Fear for engine alarm? Too late speed reduction Acceptance of a too narrow margin in distance Causes/factors Neglecting the AB´s warnings Too vague change of course All steering gears were not running Concentration on telephone call Limited experience? High confidence in the radar COLLISION Vessel on starboard? Limited education? Nonchalance? Wrong radio channel ? Nonchalance? ? Too much respect Too much respect Routine/ Obligation? ? ? ? Poor cooperation Neglecting the AB´s warnings ? Act/Event Act/Event Causes/factors
  • 15. 1. Anomaly in ship position, draught, course, speed, (or in waterway) 2. Anomaly becomes observable for VTSO 3. VTSO becomes aware of the situation 4. VTSO calls ship to inform or to ask about intention 5. Bridge team understands the question/information 6. Bridge team undertakes appropriate measures 7. Anomaly is corrected with sufficient marginal to avoid accident 2. Slight delay in radar, AIS, information from mariners 3. Workload, experience, operational procedures 4. Communication means 5. Workload, status 6. Situational awareness and correct action 7. Ship manoeuvrability , fairway size and configuration
  • 16. Event tree 1. Anomaly in ship position, draught, course, speed, (or in waterway) 2. Anomaly becomes observable for VTSO 3. VTSO becomes aware of the situation 4. VTSO calls ship to inform or to ask about intention 5. Bridge team understands the question/information 6. Bridge team undertakes appropriate measures 7. Anomaly is corrected with sufficient marginal to avoid accident Yes p=? Yes p=? Yes p=? Yes p=? Yes p=? Yes p=? Yes p=? Yes p=? Yes p=? Yes p=? Yes p=? No p=? Yes p=? Yes p=? Yes p=? Yes p=? No p=? Yes p=? Yes p=? Yes p=? No p=? Yes p=? Yes p=? No p=? Yes p=? No p=? No p=?
  • 17. Evaluation VTS –accident investigation reports, the Sound
  • 18. Claims data 2000-2009 H&M, LoH Swedish Club Probability: 1 SAFEDOR (2007) Swedish data Probability: Sw. Accident dbase ASEK 4 (SIKA, 2009) Probability: 1 Assumption of average delay ASEK 4 (SIKA, 2009) FSA Guidelines Probability: Sw. Accident dbase Claims data 2000-2009 (contact, P&I) Swedish Club Probability: 1 (contact) Negligible in most cases . Estimation approach CASUALTYID SUBCLASS CATEGORY DATEOFLOSS TOTAL _100_USD MAINDEDUCT_USD CLAIMDETAILS VESSELTYPE 20000001 Hull and Machinery Insurance Collision 01-jan-00 75265 41088 C/W BERGEN ARROW AT DURBAN ROAD Container 20000004 Hull and Machinery Insurance Collision 04-jan-00 2526 100000 COLLISION WITH PORT ARTHUR AT NEW ORLEANS Bulker 20000005 Hull and Machinery Insurance Collision 07-jan-00 2332 75000 C/W NEW HAI HUNG AT HONG KONG Bulker 20000008 Hull and Machinery Insurance Collision 11-jan-00 2474 100000 COLLISION WITH ATLAS AT CADIZ Dry Cargo 20000009 Hull and Machinery Insurance Collision 12-jan-00 326009 35000 C/W PASADENA UNIVERSAL Bulker 20000013 Hull and Machinery Insurance Collision 20-jan-00 266221 70000 ENTANGLED PROPELLER AND C/W VENTO DE MELTIMI AT ALEXANDRIA Dry Cargo 20000046 Hull and Machinery Insurance Collision 21-feb-00 4262 67500 STRUCK BULKWAYU AT MARACAIBO Dry Cargo 20000062 Hull and Machinery Insurance Collision 09-feb-00 60397 45000 C/W TUG PIONEER AND BARGE AT SEMARANG Container 20000108 Hull and Machinery Insurance Collision 16-mar-00 493 39807 COLLISION WITH MAERSK CASTRIES AT FREEPORT BAHAMAS Container
  • 19. Some strengths and weaknesses
  • 20. Human factor in risk assessment Strategic risk assessment Operational risk assessment
  • 21.
  • 22. Frequency assessment - models? RCMs impact on: Lateral distribution Grounding candidates Causation factor
  • 23. Frequency assessment – Reported accidents involving Swedish and foreign ships per port call in Sweden Sources: Swedish Maritime Safety Inspectorate, 2002 /Swedish Transport Agency, 2008: Sjöolyckor i svenska farvatten. Swedish Maritime Administration, 2008: Sektorrapport.Sjöfartens utveckling 2008.
  • 24. Consequence assessment - Source : ITOPF, 2009: Oil tanker spill statistics 2008. Spills over 700 tonnes. Oil transported and number of oil spills > 7 tonnes.
  • 25. Some strengths and weaknesses in FSA FSA step Strengths Weaknesses Hazard identification Widened knowledge of accident scenarios Structured identification Limited insight Simplification of causal chains Risk Assessment (Frequency, probability) Estimation of probability – good decision Changing system (rules, technology, traffic regime) Geographically (and poor) statistics Risk assessment (Consequences) Impact distribution on different values Monetary value Limit of accident impact Risk Control Options Limited Limited insight in combinations Limited number of RCMs evaluated Limited insight in effect Cost-Benefit Assessment Effectiveness approach Rough costs, poor data, sensitive to state of market
  • 26. Final questions When are collisions and groundings predictable? For whom are they predictable? When is the accident probability 1? Differences - operational and strategic risk assessments? What strengths and weaknesses in risk assessments have You identified? What are the similarities and differences compared to medievial risk assessment?
  • 27.