Topics (note: "Canada" in most cases can be interchanged with any other country in the world; that is, topics are worldwide)
1) Why are cell phone plans so expensive in Canada?
The cost of service has little to do with the radio services themselves, it’s all about infrastructure. In Canada the big 3 telecommunications companies maintain a monopoly on this infrastructure and this monopoly is regulated via the Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission (CRTC). But even with regulation, it is not encouraging the right behaviour with respect to infrastructure so that savings can trickle down to consumers. Trevor will explain how an “Open Access Network” (OAN) business model benefits Canadians and how an infrastructure marketplace could scale it.
2) Broadband is the "railroad" of our era and is critical to democracy.
The United Nations says it best: “… [A]ffordable broadband connectivity to the Internet is a foundation stone of modern society…Broadband does not just comprise infrastructure; today, widespread broadband connectivity offers the prospects of new services and an information revolution to change – and challenge – our very approach to development.” Trevor will walk through the socioeconomics of broadband and the future technologies that will drive broadband growth.
Good Stuff Happens in 1:1 Meetings: Why you need them and how to do them well
Broadband Internet - The “Railroad” of Our Era
1. Broadband Internet
The “Railroad” of Our Era
Trevor Textor
Rural IT & Telecom Consultant
Principal, Textor Corp.
-- Fostering “it just works” rural data communications systems
that enable clients to focus on their core business --
www.textor.ca
ca.linkedin.com/in/trevortextor
2.
3. Agenda
• The new themes of the internet: Sharing & Contribution
• What is Broadband?
• Broadband’s Impacts (Economic, Social)
• Broadband Growth & Drivers
• Role of Wireless (mobile) in Broadband
• Understanding wireless
• The components of Broadband Costs
• Sharing & an Open Access Network business model
• Canada’s status for sharing (cell plan comparison)
• Roles of the regulators (CRTC, IC)
• Ideas for promoting Broadband growth
4. Broadband is the “glue” for:
• Convergence
– Internet Protocol; consolidation of
multiple cables to a single cable
• Increasing Resource Utilization
– Move of compute to data centres
(Cloud services)
– Virtual Machines
– Big Data Analytics
– Sharing Economy (AirBnb, Car2Go, etc.)
The Sharing Revolution
5. ~Pre-2010 “Couch Potato” Internet worked fine
– Example Asymmetric Service:
20 Mbps 1 Mbps
New Reality “I have a voice”
– Less Asymmetric OK
20Mbps 5 Mbps
– Ideally Symmetric
20Mpbs 20 Mbps
Contribution
6. • Basic level of service target in bandwidth
(Mbps)
• Definitions of “Basic service” from:
– Akamai: 4 Mbps @ <35ms uncongested last
mile
– FCC (US):
25 Mbps 3 Mbps
– Industry Canada:
5 Mbps 1 Mbps
Broadband Internet
8. Broadband’s Economic Impact
• Doubling broadband speeds for an economy
can add 0.3 % to GDP growth
Canada = +$5.5 Billion/year
Federal Funding for
Broadband Development = $350M
9. Broadband’s Social Impact
(Democracy)
• Social Media catalyzes pro-democracy
movements - Twitter Revolutions
• Requires Mobile Broadband Internet
• United Nations Broadband Commission cites
broadband
“stimulate[s]
democracy”
10. Broadband is Critical Infrastructure
• “… broadband service … must carry the same
obligations as so many of the other vital
services do.” President Obama
• “… a foundation stone of modern society….”
(United Nations)
• “a basic human right” (popular opinion)
• All developed countries now have a
broadband plan and committed government
dollars.
12. Video Killed the Internet (Star?)
• Broadband internet usage is doubling every
1.5 years.
• “Cable TV Replacement”
– 52% of internet traffic (37% Netflix)
• Per Session Stream Requirements:
– HD (1080p) 2 Mbps
– UltraHD (4K) 12 Mbps
13. Telepresence (The Future)
• Immersive Video – like you’re there
– Telemedicine (“house calls”)
– Business Meetings
• Per Session Stream Requirements:
– HD (1080p) 20 Mbps
– UltraHD (4K) 120 Mbps
• Why the world needs to endlessly build more
broadband (fiber, towers)
14. Telepresence (The Future)
• Per Session Stream Requirements:
– HD (1080p) 20 Mbps
– UltraHD (4K) 120 Mbps
• Why the world needs to endlessly build more
broadband (fiber, towers)
15. • Bandwidth demand outstripped supply
Not naming any names… (cough) Netflix
• Valid technical
reasons for priority
• Bob Kahn, co-inventor
of IP calls Net
Neutrality a “slogan”
• Best solution is to have abundant bandwidth
Net Neutrality
16. Wireless
• Majority (60%) of Internet Access is mobile
(wireless)
• Cooper’s Law is the world’s longest running
growth S-curve (120 years):
The ability to transmit different
radio communications at one time
and in the same place has
doubled every 30 months since
1895
17. What is Wireless?
• Wave of energy
• Transmission of a minimum level of energy
dictates packet error rate and ultimately
bandwidth
• Choice of frequency
dictates:
– Range
– Bandwidth
Need more wireless infrastructure!
18. Services
Voice Video
Web Browsing Email
Active Components 15-30%
Economic Life: 5 - 7 years
(radios, routers, switches)
Passive Components 70-85%
Economic Life: 15 – 25 years
(Spectrum, Civil engineering works;
towers, trenches, laying duct/cable)
Cost of Broadband
19. Critical Passive Components for:
• Wireless = Towers / Spectrum
– Bandwidth bounded by
Tower Weight Support
Capacity
• Wired = Fiber / Conduit
(trenching)
Cost of Broadband
22. • Model for sharing costs
• Company that owns passive component not
allowed to own active component
• Maximizes sharing/utilization of components
• Encourages competition at the service level!
Open Access Network Model (OAN)
23. Savings Estimates By Level of Sharing
Sharing Level Savings Estimates (total as
sharing as increased)
Site Sharing (tower/room) 10%
Infrastructure Sharing
(electricity, A/C, etc)
16-20%
Telco Equipment Sharing 25%
National Roaming 30%
Full Sharing (Includes
sharing a core
transmission network)
40%
IncreasedSharing
24. Canada’s Sharing Status
Canada India
Cell Plan (~4GB data) $75 CAD $20 CAD
Less than 5% wireless infrastructure sharing.
Less than 10% wired infrastructure sharing.
Comparison to India (66% wireless sharing) :
25. • Telecom Act only applies to Big
Telecom
• Complicated Regulatory regime:
CRTC and Industry Canada
• Focus on wired passive
infrastructure sharing, not mobile
passive infrastructure sharing
(towers / roaming)
Canada’s Towers By
Ownership
Telcom
Other
Industries
26. Ideas For Change
Promoting Broadband Growth:
• Focus on infrastructure sharing
• Raise visibility via statistics
• Create a marketplace
(rentfaster.ca / eBay)
• Improve regulator effectiveness
Promoting Contribution
• Educate consumers
• Demand higher upload rates
27. Questions / Thank You
Trevor Textor
Rural IT & Telecom Consultant
Principal, Textor Corp.
Editor's Notes
Last Updated: October 21, 2015 (notes edits)
U of C Alumni Association, CPSC Chapter, Oct 22, 2015
http://alumni.cpsc.ucalgary.ca/
Image Source: Lia Rogers
Note, you can’t effectively work from home with 1Mbps upload. With cloud services such as google, screen sharing, teleconferencing & video conferencing, I recommend at least 2 Mbps.
Sources:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Broadband_universal_service
Akamai State of the Internet Report, Q2 2015
https://www.stateoftheinternet.com/
Canada’s Broadband Target speed 5Mbps down, 1Mbps up:
http://www.crtc.gc.ca/eng/info_sht/i1.htm
Akamai Broadband adoption (connections >4 Mbps):
http://www.akamai.com/stateoftheinternet/soti-visualizations.html#stoi-map
Uncongested last mile delay (or latency) of less than 35ms.
http://www.pexx.net/pdfs/whitepapers/adtran/DefiningBroadbandNtwk.pdf
USA’s FCC defines Broadband as 25Mbps down, 3Mbps up:
http://ca.ign.com/articles/2015/01/09/fcc-may-redefine-broadband-as-25mbps-download-and-3mbps-upload
Image Source:
http://www.freestockphotos.biz/stockphoto/17470
Source:
Arthur D. Little, Chalmers University of Technology and Ericsson co-authored a report on the Socioeconomic Effects of Broadband Speed http://www.ericsson.com/res/thecompany/docs/corporate-responsibility/2013/ericsson-broadband-final-071013.pdf
For Canada, a 0.3% GDP growth impact results in an additional $5.5 Billion per year in GDP growth. The Canadian Government has invested $350M in its “Connecting Canadians, Digital Canada 150” federal funding initiative to shore up slow broadband speeds, the majority of which is in rural areas. The target Internet speeds are 3-5 Mbps for extremely rural areas.
Source:
Arthur D. Little, Chalmers University of Technology and Ericsson co-authored a report on the Socioeconomic Effects of Broadband Speed http://www.ericsson.com/res/thecompany/docs/corporate-responsibility/2013/ericsson-broadband-final-071013.pdf
Connecting Canadians, Digital Canada 150
http://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/028.nsf/eng/50009.html
Image Source: http://www.istockphoto.com/
Twitter Revolution – there has been a large impact from social media in Iran and Egypt in supporting pro-democracy movements.
Sources:
“Stimulate democracy” quote
“The State of Broadband 2014: Broadband for all” by the UN Broadband Commission, pg 51.
http://www.broadbandcommission.org/resources/Pages/default.aspx
Twitter Revolution
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twitter_Revolution
Image Source: http://scrippsmediaethics.blogspot.ca/2013/09/technology-will-set-journalists-free.html
Sources:
~80% of ~40K people agree that access to the Internet is a basic or fundamental right.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Right_to_Internet_access
“…broadband service is of the same importance and must carry the same obligations as so many of the other vital services do.” President Obama
http://www.fastcompany.com/3038301/president-obama-the-fcc-should-classify-the-internet-as-a-utility
“… [A]ffordable broadband connectivity to the Internet is a foundation stone of modern society…Broadband does not just comprise infrastructure; today, widespread broadband connectivity offers the prospects of new services and an information revolution to change – and challenge – our very approach to development.” (United Nations)
UN "The State of Broadband 2014: Broadband for all"http://www.broadbandcommission.org/resources/Pages/default.aspx
Digital Canada 150
“[Canada’s] Digital Canada 150 [strategy] represents a comprehensive approach to ensuring Canada can take full advantage of the opportunities of the digital age. It envisions a country of connected citizens armed with the skills they need to succeed.” (Government of Canada)
http://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/028.nsf/eng/h_00587.html
Sources:
Once video is introduced, bandwidth usage expands at 50% CAGR (Doubles every 1.5 years).
Clearcable networks www.clearcable.ca
Netflix comprises 37% of all internet traffic. More than runners up of YouTube, Amazon & Hulu combined.
http://variety.com/2015/digital/news/netflix-bandwidth-usage-internet-traffic-1201507187/
Telepresence spoils yourself from regular video calls. VCUs have not made a measurable impact on travel for business meetings but telepresence certainly will. It translates the “body language” often missing from regular video calls.
Sources:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telepresence
Image Source: The Big Bang Theory, Season 4 Episode 2, “The Cruciferous Vegetable Amplification”
Sources:
“Bob Kahn, co-inventor of the Internet Protocol, has called the term "net neutrality" a "slogan" and states that he opposes establishing it…. Opponents of net neutrality regulation also
argue that the best solution to discrimination by broadband providers is to encourage greater competition among such providers, which is currently limited in many areas.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Net_neutrality
Image Source: https://www.linkedin.com/company/baseride-technologies
Source:
The majority of internet access in developed countries is wirelessly via mobile, with nearly 87% of the people having access to mobile broadband whereas only 29% have access to fixed broadband.
“ITU ICT Facts and Figures – The world in 2015”
http://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Statistics/Pages/facts/default.aspx
60 Percent of Online Traffic Now Comes From Mobile
http://smallbiztrends.com/2014/07/online-traffic-report-mobile.html
Image Source: http://www.techtimes.com/articles/18701/20141025/legal-hiccups-prompt-fcc-to-postpone-spectrum-auction-till-2016.htm
Image Source: http://www.istockphoto.com/
The ratio of passive components is even higher in rural areas – 80-95% is passive component costs.
With it costing so much, it seems like a stretch to cover rural Canada. You probably have experienced dead zones on highways. But what most people don’t notice is that there are towers everywhere and they are empty.
Sources:
Canada actually has some OAN in that it has unbundled cable (local loop unbundling) however, this does not have much to do sharing towers / cellular where much of the data demand is from mobile. Further, in terms of selling internet service, this has only resulted in non-incumbent ISP resale service of 7% of residential internet & 31% of business internet in 2011.
Unbundling: Broadband Networks And Open Access, 2013, OECD, Pg. 11-12, Canada local loop unbundling use.
http://oecdinsights.org/2013/03/05/stimulating-competition-through-open-access-networks/
Tower sharing illustration from “Financing Rural Communications Infrastructure: The Parkland Utility Model” pg. 5
www.fcm.ca/Documents/presentations/2012/SCC2012/Financing_rural_communications_infrastructure_the_parkland_utility_model_EN.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telecom_infrastructure_sharing
“…[T]he information communications and technology (ICT) industry, which delivers Internet, video, voice and other cloud services, produces … about 2 percent of global CO2 emissions — the same proportion as the aviation industry produces.” The majority of these emissions are from wireless towers, specifically those generating electricity using fossil fuels.
http://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/pressroom/presspacs/2013/acs-presspac-january-23-2013/toward-reducing-the-greenhouse-gas-emissions-of-the-internet-and-telecommunications.html
Image Source:
https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/research-councils-green-open-access-policy-will-not-be-enforced/2001275.article
Source:
“The State of Broadband 2014: Broadband for all” by the UN Broadband Commission. Table 5: Capex and Opex Savings for Different Network Deployment Models. Pg. 77
http://www.broadbandcommission.org/publications/pages/sob-2014.aspx
Sources:
India 4GB mobile data anywhere from 500-1000 Rs. ~$20 CAD (high)
Global Tower Overview (3 million towers)
(Trevor note: Unfortunately we do not know how many towers there are in Canada since Industry Canada does not track this.)
http://www.towerxchange.com/global-telecom-tower-market-overview/
“Lessons learned at the TowerXchange Meetup Asia 2014”, pg 2 India TowerCo penetration.
Unbundling: Broadband Networks And Open Access, 2013, OECD, Pg. 11-12, Canada local loop unbundling use.
http://oecdinsights.org/2013/03/05/stimulating-competition-through-open-access-networks/
TowerCos: Based on estimate from Loxcel based on their cell tower map (2012):
https://www.reddit.com/r/canada/comments/xz028/hey_canada_ever_wonder_how_many_cell_towers_are/
TowerCo penetration in Canada estimated from SBA Canada database & known small providers. SBA Canada 750 towers (2015), others, easily less than 250; these are towers purchased from the non-Telecom tower portfolio.
Therefore, estimate that towers have increased from their 2012 number and that private towers would double that number, say total of 30,000 towers in Canada (does not include bolt together towers). 30,000/1000 = 3.3%
Podcast “The FCC: Promoting Fast, Fair & Open Broadband” August 7, 2015, cjspeaks
http://www.blogtalkradio.com/gigabitnation/2015/08/07/the-fcc-promoting-fast-fair-open-broadband
Gigi Sohn, Counselor to FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler, discusses net neutrality and infrastructure sharing. Specifically she discusses how sharing of infrastructure (getting access to) is the key barrier FCC is trying to break down. Specific info starts at 28 minutes until the end.
Sources:
Private tower ownership is indirectly estimated by accessing the Industry Canada spectrum database. The database lists tower size and location for a radio license. Ownership is inferred based on radio licenses on the tower. Canada does not have a database of tower locations and corresponding ownership like the USA does.
USA Antenna Structure Registration System:
http://wireless2.fcc.gov/UlsApp/AsrSearch/asrRegistrationSearch.jsp
Industry Canada Radio Frequency search:
http://sd.ic.gc.ca/pls/engdoc_anon/web_search.geographical_input
CCPA Monitor: The CRTC and the future of high-speed Internet access
https://openmedia.ca/blog/ccpa-monitor-crtc-and-future-high-speed-internet-access
CRTC 2013-551 is not reviewing wireless wholesale services (e.g. tower sharing, wireless roaming) as per item #21.
http://crtc.gc.ca/eng/archive/2013/2013-551.htm
Digital Canada 150: The digital strategy without a strategy
http://www.thestar.com/business/2014/04/04/digital_canada_150_the_digital_strategy_without_a_strategy.html