For more information on this report please contact ediz.ibrahim@visiongain.com (+44 (0)20 7549 9976) or refer to our website http://www.visiongain.com/Report/1045/The-East-African-Oil-Gas-Market-2013-2023

1. Page 75www.visiongain.com
The East African Oil & Gas Market
2013-2023
4.6.3 Ugandan Exploration and Production Market
In 2011 Tullow completed a
$2.9bn farmout of its
Ugandan acreage and will
now develop its 4 Ugandan
blocks in cooperation with
CNOOC and Total S.A.
which both hold a 33.3
percent share in each block.
Tullow originally expected to
begin production in Uganda
in 2015 but the project was
faced by several delays and
the three companies are
currently aiming for initial
output of around 20,000
barrels per day by 2017
from the blocks on the
shores of Lake Albert, which
should rise to 230,000 bpd
by 2020. Several other
companies have been active
in Ugandan in the past. Most
recently Dominion
Petroleum and Tower
Resources where active in Uganda but relinquished their licences in 2012.
The Ugandan government has repeatedly stated that it is looking to auction off new licensing areas
to build on recent success made in the country. Currently, the government of president Museveni is
planning to reform the Ugandan upstream sector and will likely proceed with the sale of new blocks
once reforms governing the oil and gas sector have been implemented. Table 4.30 gives an
overview of the five blocks currently designated for commercial production. Focus for 2013 will be
on the Total operated block where the company announced it would spend $650m this year alone.
Figure 4.21 Ugandan Licence Blocks
Source: Ugandan Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development

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The East African Oil & Gas Market
2013-2023
4.7 Kenyan Oil & Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023
Table 4.33, Figures 4.22 and 4.23 show visiongain’s forecast for the Kenyan oil & gas market over
the next ten years.
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013-23
Capex $m 150 441 707 1,280 1,581 2,014 1,813 1,971 2,203 2,511 2,971 3,363 20,853
AGR (%) 193.8 60.4 81.0 23.5 27.4 -10.0 8.7 11.8 14.0 18.3 13.2
2018-23 13.2
22.5
32.7CAGR (%) 2013-18
CAGR (%) 2013-23
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
AGR
Capex$m
Year
Source: Visiongain 2013
Table 4.33 Kenyan Oil & Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023 ($m, AGR%, CAGR%,
Cumulative)
Source: Visiongain 2013
Figure 4.22 Kenyan Oil & Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023 ($m, AGR%)

3. Page 104www.visiongain.com
The East African Oil & Gas Market
2013-2023
In the World Bank’s Doing Business 2013 ranking Ethiopia was the third best East African country,
behind Uganda and Kenya. In the Global Competitiveness Report and the Corruption Perception
Index it was ranked second best in East Africa. The Governance Indicators further support the case
that Ethiopia, despite severe problems with security and political stability, has done a better job
than most countries in the region with regard to establishing a stable business environment through
efficient institutions and comparatively low levels of corruption.
4.9.3 Ethiopian Oil & Gas Market Summary
Ethiopia will remain the smallest market throughout the forecast period. While it has proven gas
reserves these are located in one of the most remote and dangerous areas in the country and
exploration in the Ogaden region will thus progress very slowly. Currently, Tullow is the only
company actively drilling in Ethiopia. The company’s well near the southern border with Kenya
shows similar geographical characteristics and the company is hopeful that it will encounter oil rich
plays. Apart from Tullow most companies are in the early stages of development and will only start
drilling in the coming years. Ethiopia possesses both gas and oil potential and exploration will
increase significantly over the next decade. With the current security and economic situation in the
country however the oil and gas market will trail behind the rest of East Africa for the foreseeable
future. Table 4.55 provides and overview of the current companies active in Ethiopia and the
licence blocks they are operating on while Table 4.56 lists the major drivers and restraints of the
Ethiopian oil and gas market.
Operator Block km2 Other Companies Status
Southwest
Energy
Gambella
Basin 17,000 full tensor gravity & magnetic surveys
Tullow Oil South Omo 29,465
Africa Oil (30%)
Marathon Oil (20%)
started drilling Sabisa-1 in December
2012
Falcon
Petroleum AB1 seismic survey
Falcon
Petroleum AB4, AB7
New Age 7, 8 23,162
Afren (30%) Africa
Oil (30%) Exploration drilling in2013
Africa Oil Adigala 27,193
Africa Oil Rift Basin Area 42,519 Environmental Impact Assessment
Pexco 18, 19, 21
Southwest
Energy Jimma 13,000 PSA awaiting approval of ministry
Southwest
Energy 9, 9A, 13 29,000
A 3-well drilling program is scheduled
for 2013-2014
Table 4.55 Ethiopian Licence Blocks (Operator, Block, km2, Other Companies, Status)
Source: Visiongain 2013

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The East African Oil & Gas Market
2013-2023
6. Major Companies in the East African Oil & Gas Market
Figure 6.1 Major Companies in the East African Market 2013-2023 Ranking
Tier 1
• Anadarko
• BG Group
• DAR Petroleum Operating
Company Ltd
• ENI
• Sasol
• Statoil
• Total S.A.
• Petronas
• Shell
• Sudd Petroleum
Operating Company Ltd
• Africa Oil Corp.
• Apache Energy
• CNOOC
• CNPC
• Greater Pioneer Operating Company
• Heritage Oil
• Maurel & Prom
• Ophir Energy
• PanAfrican Energy
• Petrobras
Tier 2
Tier 3• Imara Energy
• Jacka Resources
• Kalila Energi
• Motherland
Industries Ltd
• New Age Ltd
• Ndovu
Resources
• Pacific Seaboard
Investments
• Petrodel
• Adamantine Energy
• Afren plc
• Antrim Energy Inc.
• A-Z Petroleum,
• Beach Energy
• Camac
• Dodsal
• Edgo Energy
• Falcon Petroleum
• FAR Limited
• Hydrotanz
• Pexco
• Rift Energy
• Simba Energy
• Sohi Gas Dodori
• Sohi Gas Lamu
• Southwest Energy
• Star Petroleum
• Swala Energy
• Taipan Resources
• Vanoil
Source: Visiongain 2013

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The East African Oil & Gas Market
2013-2023
6.2 Tier Two Company Overview
Africa Oil Corporation
• Operator of two blocks in Ethiopia; 30 percent share in Tullow’s South Omo block
• First well on South Omo encountered hydrocarbons
• 2 more wells on South Omo block planned for 2013
• Environmental Impact Assessment for Rift Basin Area in Ethiopia
• Operator of Block 10BB in Kenya and working interest in 4 of Tullow’s Blocks in Kenya
• Blocks 10BB and 13T encountered 100 and 30 metres of net oil pay respectively
• Tullow and Africa Oil plan to drill at least a further 5 exploration wells on 10BB and at least
4 on 13T in 2013
Operator Block km2 Other companies Country
Tullow Oil South Omo 29,465 Africa Oil (30%), Marathon Oil (20%) Ethiopia
Africa Oil Adigala 27,193 Ethiopia
Africa Oil Rift Basin Area 42,519 Ethiopia
Africa Oil 9 29,593 Marathon Oil (50%) Kenya
Africa Oil 10BB 8,835 Tullow Oil (50%) Kenya
Tullow Oil 10A 14,597 Africa Oil (20%) Kenya
Tullow Oil 10BA 21,088 Africa Oil (50%) Kenya
Tullow Oil 12A 20,341 Africa Oil (20%), Marathon Oil (15%) Kenya
Tullow Oil 13 T 6,298 Africa Oil (50%) Kenya
Apache Energy
• Holds licence area L8 offshore Kenya; 5,114km2
• Mbawa-1 drilled first well in Q4/2012; encountered 52 metres of gas
• Will analyse data to determine future exploration activities
• 2 appraisal wells planned in 2013
CNOOC
• Holds 33.3% interest in 4 Ugandan blocks
• Will develop Ugandan oil reserves in cooperation with Total and Tullow
• Operator of Block EA3A
• No drilling planned on EA3A in 2013
Table 6.16 Africa Oil’s East African Operations Overview (Operator, Block, km2,
Other Companies, Country)
Source: Visiongain 2013