"Financial intelligence is 90% emotional IQ and 10% Technical IQ. What determines what we do and who we are, is how we as individuals respond to our emotions". Robert Kyiosaki Whether we’re talking about economic confidence or investor optimism, emotions drive the marketplace!

1. Fear & Greed
Introducing the Bull/Bear Ratio
Mark Weetman
Vunani Private Clients

2. Introduction
"Financial intelligence is 90% emotional IQ and 10% Technical IQ.
What determines what we do and who we are, is how we as individuals respond to
our emotions".
Robert Kyiosaki
Whether we’re talking about economic confidence or investor optimism, emotions
drive the marketplace!

3. Understanding risk?

4. When the bubble bursts!
Prior to 19th century
The Roman denarius was debased over time.
The 1340 default of England, due to setbacks in its war with France (the Hundred Years' War;).
Seven defaults by Spain, four under Philip II, three under his successors.
1637: Tulip mania in the Netherlands
1720: Bursting of South Sea Bubble (Great Britain) and Mississippi Bubble (France)
19th century
Danish state bankruptcy of 1813
Panic of 1819 – pervasive USA economic recession w/ bank failures; culmination of U.S.'s 1st boom-to-bust economic cycle
Panic of 1825 – pervasive British economic recession in which many British banks failed, & Bank of England nearly failed
Panic of 1837 – pervasive USA economic recession w/ bank failures; a 5 yr depression ensued
Panic of 1847 – a collapse of British financial markets associated with the end of the 1840s railroad boom.
Panic of 1857 – pervasive USA economic recession w/ bank failures
Panic of 1866 – the Overend Gurney crisis (primarily British)
Panic of 1873 – pervasive USA economic recession w/ bank failures, known as the 5 yr Great Depression or the Long Depression
Panic of 1893 – a panic in the United States marked by the collapse of railroad overbuilding and shaky railroad financing which set off a series of bank failures
Australian banking crisis of 1893
Panic of 1896 – an acute economic depression in the United States precipitated by a drop in silver reserves
20th century
Panic of 1901 – limited to crashing of the New York Stock Exchange
Panic of 1907 – pervasive USA economic recession w/ bank failures
1910 – Shanghai rubber stock market crisis
Wall Street Crash of 1929, followed by the Great Depression – the largest and most important economic depression in the 20th century
1973 – 1973 oil crisis – oil prices soared, causing the 1973–1974 stock market crash
Secondary banking crisis of 1973–1975 – United Kingdom
1980s – Latin American debt crisis – beginning in Mexico in 1982 with the Mexican Weekend
Bank stock crisis (Israel 1983)
1987 – Black Monday (1987) – the largest one-day percentage decline in stock market history
1989–91 – United States Savings & Loan crisis
1990 – Japanese asset price bubble collapsed
early 1990s – Scandinavian banking crisis: Swedish banking crisis, Finnish banking crisis of 1990s
1992–93 – Black Wednesday – speculative attacks on currencies in the European Exchange Rate Mechanism
1994–95 – 1994 economic crisis in Mexico – speculative attack and default on Mexican debt
1997–98 – 1997 Asian Financial Crisis – devaluations and banking crises across Asia
1998 Russian financial crisis
21st century
2000–2001 – Turkish Crises
2000 – late 2000s Recession
2001 – Argentine Crises
2001 – Bursting of dot-com bubble – speculations concerning internet companies crashed
2008-2009 - Icelandic financial crisis
2007–12 – Financial crisis of 2007–2012, including the 2010 European sovereign debt crisis

5. Selective Lessons from the Market Crash 0f 1987
Streetdogs, Businessday 25th October 2012
“… On Oct. 19, 1987, the Dow plunged almost 23%, its largest one-day percentage-point drop ever. Lessons
learnt, and warnings:
Stay objective. You’re never going to be right all the time and things can go wrong, so you have to have the
confidence that your investment portfolio can stay intact to sustain yourself through illogical times.
Buy on fear. One of the big things you realize is that if you just stick with the long-term portfolio you’ll be
okay, after 1987, large-cap stock prices rose about 12% in 1988, and about 27% in 1989.
Make a shopping list. Don’t wait until the market tanks to decide what you want.
There’s no such thing as ‘can't happen.’ The 1987 crash was a 25-sigma event, or 25 standard deviations
away from the mean. In other words, a virtually impossible occurrence.
Tune out the daily noise. Corrections of 10% are common and typically happen about three times a year.
You’ve got to stay focused on the long-term and not get wigged out by the short-term noise.
Don’t bail. After Black Monday, an army of economists warned that the financial world was coming to an
end. Investors who believed them missed out.”
Adapted from 10 Lessons from the Market Crash of 1987 by Wallace Witkowski

6. Is he really my Buddy!
“Stockbrokers more competitive, Willing
to take more risks than psychopaths"
University of St. Gallen, Switzerland
• professional stock traders actually outperform diagnosed psychopaths when it comes to competitive and
risk-taking behaviour.
• traders showed a higher degree of competitiveness than the psychopaths
• willing to cause harm to their competitors if they thought it would bring them an advantage
• In 2005, a study found that traders who are unable to fully feel their emotions due to brain damage end up
performing better on the market -- possibly because they experience less anxiety about risky trades.
• Another research project that concluded in 1996 found that some percentage of both stockbrokers and
politicians display many traits characteristic of psychopathic personality, including a willingness to take risks
and an interest in wielding power
• In 2001, a study found that many young Wall Street stockbrokers got little sleep, often reported for work
even when suffering from the flu or a virus, and were much more likely to experience symptoms of
depression than average Americans.
• In fact, the study found a 23% rate of major depression within the group of young male stockbrokers

7. Trading cycle

8. Why are you here?

10. Bull/Bear ratio

13. Pivot points

15. Maureen’s Traffic lights
Mixed (Neutral)
A GREEN Signal with a STAR (*) is a Buy Signal above the 21 day Moving Average and therefore a stronger Signal than a Green Signal
below the 21 Day Moving Average.
A RED Signal with a STAR (*) is a Sell Short Signal below the 21 Day Moving Average and therefore a stronger signal than a Red Signal
above the 21 Day Moving Average

16. Share Traffic Control

17. Volatility

18. Put/Call Ratio

20. Trading Pitfalls!
Asset management who participated in the survey
• Coronation Fund Managers
• Investec Asset Management
• Old Mutual Investment Group (Macro Strategy Investments)
• Momentum Asset Management
• Sanlam Investment Management
• Stanlib Asset Management
• Element Investment Managers

21. Trading Pitfalls!

22. Trading Pitfalls!

23. Equities high/low road
Rolling twelve months equity performance
Base case Spot Rolling twelve months ending: Rolling 2 yr
28-Sep-12 28-Sep-13 29-Sep-14 average/year
FTSE/JSE Alsi Index 35758 39379 46654
Exit PER (X) 13.70 13.6 13.9
EPS 2610.83 2888.9 3358.9
EPS growth (%) 6.88 10.7 16.3
Growth in FTSE/JSE Alsi index (% ) 10.1 18.5 14.30
Bull case Rolling twelve months ending:
28-Sep-12 28-Sep-13 29-Sep-14
FTSE/JSE Alsi Index 35757.98 46110 54480
Exit PER (X) 13.70 16.0 16.2
EPS 2610.83 2888.9 3358.9
EPS growth (%) 10.7 16.3
Growth in FTSE/JSE Alsi index (% ) 28.9 18.2 23.55
Bear case Rolling twelve months ending:
28-Sep-12 28-Sep-13 29-Sep-14
FTSE/JSE Alsi Index 35757.98 32648 38828
Exit PER (X) 13.70 11.3 11.6
EPS 2610.83 2888.9 3358.9
EPS growth (%) 10.7 16.3
Growth in FTSE/JSE Alsi index (% ) -8.7 18.9 5.12

24. Main sectors
OIL & GAS Spot Rolling twelve months ending: Rolling 2 yr
28-Sep-12 28-Sep-13 29-Sep-14 average/year
Index 28173 30319 36669
Exit PER (X) 8.81 9.0 10.6
EPS 3199.51 3368.8 3459.4
EPS growth (%) 46.74 5.3 2.7
Growth in Oil & Gas index (% ) 7.6 20.9 14.28
MINING Spot Rolling twelve months ending: Rolling 2 yr
28-Sep-12 28-Sep-13 29-Sep-14 average/year
Index 30687 32662 40889
Exit PER (X) 10.54 11.0 12.0
EPS 2910.92 2969.3 3407.4
EPS growth (%) -12.42 2.0 14.8
Growth in Mining index (% ) 6.4 25.2 15.81
FINANCIALS Spot Rolling twelve months ending: Rolling 2 yr
28-Sep-12 28-Sep-13 29-Sep-14 average/year
Index 27016 32294 38374
Exit PER (X) 12.53 12.8 13.0
EPS 2156.38 2523.0 2951.9
EPS growth (%) 17.60 17.0 17.0
Growth in Financial index (% ) 19.5 18.8 19.18
INDUSTRIALS Spot Rolling twelve months ending: Rolling 2 yr
28-Sep-12 28-Sep-13 29-Sep-14 average/year
Index 41916 45343 51976
Exit PER (X) 18.28 17.5 17.0
EPS 2292.96 2591.0 3057.4
EPS growth (%) 18.43 13.0 18.0
Growth in Industrials index (% ) 8.2 14.6 11.40

25. Expected asset class performance

26. Recommended Portfolio Distribution
Benchmark Recomm. Relative to Relative to Intended tilt changes
Multiple Multiple
(%) Weight (%) Benchmark Benchmark over next 3 months.
This Month This Month This Month This Month Last Month Last Month
SA 77.5 75.4 -2.1 0.97 -2.6 0.97
Cash 12.5 6.7 -5.8 0.54 -6.5 0.48 0 g
Bonds 10.0 9.0 -1.0 0.90 -0.5 0.95 -1 m
Quoted Property 5.0 4.5 -0.5 0.90 0.2 1.04 -1 m
Equities 50.0 55.2 5.2 1.10 4.7 1.09 0 g
Total Offshore 20.0 22.6 2.6 1.13 2.6 1.13
Offshore Equities 15.0 17.6 2.6 1.17 2.6 1.17 0 g
Offshore Bonds 5.0 5.0 0.0 1.00 0.0 1.00 0 g
Offshore Cash 0.0 0.0 0.0 - 0.0 - 0 g
NewGold 2.5 2.0 -0.5 0.80 -0.5 0.80 0 g
Total 100.0
Updated: 2nd Oct. '12 on 30th Sept. '12 closes.

27. Commentary
Cash Higher risk justifies incrased cash holding.
Bonds Bonds ran hard - retain underweight.
Quoted Property Bond yield prospects calls for caution on listed property…
Equities We remain overweight…
Offshore Equity Appealing from current levels; our preferred overall asset class - overweight…
In spite of global sovereign debt concerns its lack of correllation with domestic equities justifies a
Offshore Bonds
fairly high holding - retain neutral..
Offshore Cash Not worth while…
Potential for PER rerating coupled with weak earnings prospects suggests a neutral allocation to be
SA Resources
justified.
SA Financials Good prospects from oversold levels; still our preferred domestic equity sub-sector…
SA Industrials Demanding PER; recommend underweight to neutral
SA Med/Small
Increasingly appealing as a late-cycle runner…
Companies
Not-my-base case Early domestic interest rate hike…

28. Diversify
Top10
APN, ASR, AVI
BTI, DSY
IPL, IVT
MPC, NPN, SHP

29. Have a plan
“No guts No glory!” Sir Francis Drake
S
Trades are fairly short-term ( ) in duration (2 days – 6 weeks)
T
Signals are mainly technical in nature ( )
Look for a 3 –5 % move on underlying (U)
So depending on gearing we hope to achieve a 30% - 60% move on geared position ( G)
Look for at least a 2:1 return/risk pay-out (preferably a 2.5:1) ( R)
E
Exit ( ), we always set take-profit and stop-loss levels. Usually dictated by technical levels I.e.
previous support/resistance levels
A
Sometimes use ( ) trailing stop. Once we are in the trade we may take profit early if market
conditions or the share’s price action dictates
L
Prefer the liquid ( ) stocks, unless we have a very strong signal

31. What kind of Investor are you?
Investment Style
• Active vs Passive Investment
Time frame
• How much time do you want to spend on investing?
• How active do you want to be?
• When do you need your invested monies?
Risk tolerance
• Various instruments have different degrees of risk
• Are you comfortable with short term decreases in investment value
Reasons for becoming a trader
• Results-orientated trader vs ego-driven trader

32. Trading Pitfalls!
Pitfall 1: Not having an exit plan before buying
Pitfall 2: Portfolio imbalances
They purchase entirely too large a position in a single stock.
They do it all at once.
Pitfall 3: Failing to cut losses
Pitfall 4: Selling too soon
Pitfall 5: Buying shares that continue to fall
The slide will end. A surprising few number of shares never do until they become worthless.
Timing of when and at what price the share’s slide will end.
Pitfall 6: Adding additional loosing shares to your portfolio
Pitfall 7: Emotional attachment to a share
Once you have sold a stock, forget it, whether it was sold for a profit or a loss.

33. The Traders Creed!
You and you alone are responsible for:
 all your actions.
 all trades that you make.
 doing your own research, due diligence and analysis of trends,
markets and specific shares.

34. Mark Weetman
Vunani Private Clients
mark@vunaniprivateclients.co.za
011 384 2920/30