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February 2009 This Month in Real Estate   Canada
Commentary ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Numbers That Drive Real Estate ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Home Sales In Thousands Home Sales: Total from January to December every year Source: Conference Board - CREA Sales activity decreased by 17% in 2008. Seasonally adjusted sales fell by 1.8% in December in comparison to November. This was a much smaller decline than the double digit declines in September and October.
Average Home Price In Thousands Average Home price as of December every year Source: Conference Board - CREA The average home price declined 11% to $281,110 in December. According to CREA, declines in prices occurred in approximately 50% of local markets.  Declining prices continue to be most evident in the more costly markets.
Home Prices by Province 7 out of 12 provinces experienced an  increase  in home price Home Price Direction  (Year-Over-Year Change) N.T $362K YK. $202K B.C. $429K Alta. $328K Sask. $220K Man. $180K Ont. $280K Que. $213K N.L $206K N.S.  $182K N.B. $142K Average Home price as of December every year Source: Conference Board - CREA P.E.I.  $161K Prices Increased Prices Decreased
Inventory  Sales to New Listings Ratio Inventory as of December every year Source: Conference Board - CREA Sales as percentage of new listings, a measure of market strength, declined to 38% in December. There were also fewer houses going on the market as new listings in December were down 8% from the peak levels in May 2008.
Mortgage Rates  5-Year Fixed Mortgage rates as of January every year Source: Bank of Canada Bank credit continues to flow to households regardless of perceptions of tightened lending conditions, and mortgage lending to households continues to increase.  Quality borrowers continue to receive access to loans and are enjoying low mortgage rates. Five-year fixed rates in January averaged around 5.79% which is significantly lower than the 2008 average of 7.1%.
Affordability – Detached Bungalow (% of Income)  Proportion of median pre-tax household income required to service the cost of mortgage payments for a  detached bungalow  (principal, interest, property taxes and utilities) The higher the measure, the less affordable it is. ,[object Object],Quarterly Affordability Source: Royal Bank of Canada Region Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Change British Columbia 73.0% 69.7% -3.3% Alberta 43.8% 43.0% -0.8% Saskatchewan 50.6% 47.7% -2.9% Manitoba 40.4% 39.5% -0.9% Ontario 44.8% 44.1% -0.7% Quebec 36.3% 35.3% -1.0% Atlantic 35.7% 35.4% -0.3% Toronto 54.3% 53.3% -1.0% Montreal 41.1% 40.4% -0.7% Vancouver 78.8% 74.8% -4.0% Ottawa 43.4% 43.3% -0.1% Calgary 48.1% 47.3% -0.8% Edmonton 43.6% 43.2% -0.4% Canada 46.8% 45.7% -1.1%
Affordability - Townhouses (% of Income)   Proportion of median pre-tax household income required to service the cost of mortgage payments for a  standard townhouse  (principal, interest, property taxes and utilities) The higher the measure, the less affordable it is. ,[object Object],Quarterly Affordability Source: Royal Bank of Canada Region Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Change British Columbia 55.8% 53.8% -2.0% Alberta 34.2% 32.1% -2.1% Saskatchewan 43.4% 39.1% -4.3% Manitoba 26.8% 25.8% -1.0% Ontario 37.1% 36.5% -0.6% Quebec 30.9% 30.2% -0.7% Atlantic 31.9% 30.3% -1.6% Toronto 47.0% 46.1% -0.9% Montreal 36.0% 35.3% -0.7% Vancouver 59.1% 57.2% -1.9% Ottawa 34.0% 34.0% 0.0% Calgary 40.4% 36.1% -4.3% Edmonton 31.2% 30.3% -0.9% Canada 38.0% 36.9% -1.1%
Top 10 Most Affordable Markets  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: 5 th  Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey
Snapshot of the Economy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Summary of Key Metrics Source: Statistics Canada The economy slipped into recession in November, almost an entire year later than the US.  Historically, the lag between the US and Canada is usually shorter, giving some glimmers of resiliency in the Canadian economy. However, the weakening economy and declining commodity prices are placing downward pressures on inflation. While the unemployment rate recently increased to 6.6%, it’s still below the 10-year average of 7.3%.  Metrics Simple Definition % Real GDP  (% Change) Standard measure of the overall economy -0.7% Composite Leading Indicator  (% Change) Combination of 10 economic metrics that provide early signals of changes in the direction of key sectors within the economy -0.6% Inflation Rate General increase in prices across the economy 1.2% Unemployment Rate % of the labour force that is actively looking for work but still unemployed 6.6%
Recent Government Action
Bank of Canada lowers overnight interest rate to 1%  -  January 20, 2009 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Canada’s Finance Minister Jim Flaherty Unveils Stimulus Package   - January 20, 2009 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: http://www.budget.gc.ca/2009/plan/bpc1-eng.asp
Housing-Related Provisions of the Proposed Stimulus Package ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: http://www.budget.gc.ca/2009/plan/bpc1-eng.asp
This concludes the February 2009 Canadian Real Estate Market Update. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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This Month In Real Estate February Canada 20090203

  • 1. February 2009 This Month in Real Estate Canada
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  • 4. Home Sales In Thousands Home Sales: Total from January to December every year Source: Conference Board - CREA Sales activity decreased by 17% in 2008. Seasonally adjusted sales fell by 1.8% in December in comparison to November. This was a much smaller decline than the double digit declines in September and October.
  • 5. Average Home Price In Thousands Average Home price as of December every year Source: Conference Board - CREA The average home price declined 11% to $281,110 in December. According to CREA, declines in prices occurred in approximately 50% of local markets. Declining prices continue to be most evident in the more costly markets.
  • 6. Home Prices by Province 7 out of 12 provinces experienced an increase in home price Home Price Direction (Year-Over-Year Change) N.T $362K YK. $202K B.C. $429K Alta. $328K Sask. $220K Man. $180K Ont. $280K Que. $213K N.L $206K N.S. $182K N.B. $142K Average Home price as of December every year Source: Conference Board - CREA P.E.I. $161K Prices Increased Prices Decreased
  • 7. Inventory Sales to New Listings Ratio Inventory as of December every year Source: Conference Board - CREA Sales as percentage of new listings, a measure of market strength, declined to 38% in December. There were also fewer houses going on the market as new listings in December were down 8% from the peak levels in May 2008.
  • 8. Mortgage Rates 5-Year Fixed Mortgage rates as of January every year Source: Bank of Canada Bank credit continues to flow to households regardless of perceptions of tightened lending conditions, and mortgage lending to households continues to increase. Quality borrowers continue to receive access to loans and are enjoying low mortgage rates. Five-year fixed rates in January averaged around 5.79% which is significantly lower than the 2008 average of 7.1%.
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  • 13. Summary of Key Metrics Source: Statistics Canada The economy slipped into recession in November, almost an entire year later than the US. Historically, the lag between the US and Canada is usually shorter, giving some glimmers of resiliency in the Canadian economy. However, the weakening economy and declining commodity prices are placing downward pressures on inflation. While the unemployment rate recently increased to 6.6%, it’s still below the 10-year average of 7.3%. Metrics Simple Definition % Real GDP (% Change) Standard measure of the overall economy -0.7% Composite Leading Indicator (% Change) Combination of 10 economic metrics that provide early signals of changes in the direction of key sectors within the economy -0.6% Inflation Rate General increase in prices across the economy 1.2% Unemployment Rate % of the labour force that is actively looking for work but still unemployed 6.6%
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