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Internet retail trends 2010:
Ten actions for your business




A report by Verdict Consulting for Webloyalty
November 2009
Internet retail trends 2010:
Ten actions for your business




Report produced by Verdict Consulting for Webloyalty
November 2009


Verdict Consulting
119 Farringdon Road
London
EC1R 3DA

T. 020 7551 9419
F. 020 7551 9090
E. consulting@verdict.co.uk
W. www.verdict.co.uk

The consulting contacts for this project are: Neil Saunders (neils@verdict.co.uk) and James Flower (jamesf@verdict.co.uk)



ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Whether in printed or electronic form: no part of this publication may be copied, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted without the prior written permission of the publisher or under the terms of a licence issued by the publisher – Verdict Research Limited.

All abstracting of the data for republication must have prior permission. In order to apply, an application form (available from Verdict) and draft copies of the proposed document must be submitted, together with full details of circulation and audience. All information will be treated in strictest confidence. Please note,
consent is not given automatically and in certain instances a charge may be applicable.

Reports are sold on the condition that they will not be circulated outside the staff who work at the address to which it is sent. An order for additional copies at reduced rates constitutes an undertaking by the subscriber that such copies will not be exported or distributed so as to avoid taking full price subscriptions
elsewhere without prior agreement with the publisher.

Printed reports are subject to the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 (CDPA). Please note, the Fair Dealing provisions of the CDPA do not allow copying of any part of printed publications for commercial usage of any kind.

While information is compiled with due care, the publisher will not be liable for the consequences of anyone acting or refraining from acting in reliance on any information.

© Verdict Research Limited 2009
Table of contents



                                           Page
Section 1
Introduction                               04
The ten trends - in brief                  06

Section 2
The ten trends and actions for retailers   08
Conclusions                                19

Section 3
About Webloyalty and Verdict               21
1
Introduction
Introduction



    Over the last ten years the retail landscape has shifted and changed in many
    respects. Mergers and acquisitions have driven consolidation, some household
    retail names have vanished from our high streets, and some new product
    categories have emerged from what seems like nowhere. However, the single
    and most significant change in retail has been the emergence of the internet
    channel.
                                                                                          “We have set out ten trends you
    Ten years ago, online retail was worth around £1bn and accounted for just 0.5%          need to know about internet
    of all retail spending. Since then, it has grown by an average 37% per year and     retailing in the 2010s. These are the
    is now worth over £20bn, with 7.3% of all purchasing going through the channel.
                                                                                          major trends that, we believe, all
    And as more people have started to shop online, the dynamics of the channel         retailers must consider when setting
    have evolved rapidly, with retailers having to improve and develop their websites    out their online strategy for 2010
    to ensure their customers receive the service they demand.              Increased
    competition has also been key in this development as retailers have battled each
                                                                                                     and beyond”
    other to offer the best online functionality and service.

    While online retail will continue to grow significantly ahead of all other retail
    channels, the heady growth of the past decade will not be repeated, with no
    single year growing by more than 12.2%. The channel is a long way from
    maturity, but is certainly well past the fledgling days which saw the market
    double in size in some years. In light of this, we forecast growth at an average
    11% per year for the foreseeable future.




5
The ten trends




    Growth will be more            The recession has              Acquiring new customers       There will be more            Expectations will
    difficult                      impacted                       will be tougher               mouths to feed                rise

    As the sector matures, the     The recession has certainly    With the growth of ‘new’      Not only will there be        As the channel matures,
    ‘mega’ growth retailers        held back online               internet shoppers             more retailers operating      online customer demands
    had grown used to will         performance, but how will      dwindling, competition        online, but shoppers will     and expectations will rise
    increasingly become a          customers behave post-         between retailers for their   also visit more websites      and meeting them will
    thing of the past              recession?                     business will increase        before making a purchase      become more challenging




    Loyalty can be                 Conversion will                Basket abandonment is         Customers will be             Its more than about
    increased                      be key                         here to stay                  channel blind                 selling

    Loyalty is lower online than   Getting customers to visit a   Customers will always         Cross-channel purchasing      With online growth
    in any other channel, but      website will remain            abandon their baskets, but    is on the increase with       slowing, retailers will look
    there are opportunities to     important, but converting      cutting down the number       shoppers using a variety of   at other non-core revenue
    increase online loyalty        them into buyers will          of times this happens will    channels for a single         generating activities such
    levels                         become more of an issue        be key to growing sales       purchase                      as monetisation
6
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7
2
The ten trends
Growth will be more difficult
     “We predict growth of around 11% each year, which, though slower than previous years,
     remains extremely strong compared to growth rates in physical retail.’’


                                                                                                         Pre 2009 growth =                                      2009 onward growth =
    If one thing is certain it’s that the rapid growth in online retailing is set to slow                29.9% pa average                                       11.0% pa average
                                                                                            35,000                                                                                                         40
    over the next five years. Since 2004, growth rates in the high twenties and                                                          35.0
    even low thirties were the order of the day as more consumers began making                                                33.4
                                                                                            30,000                                                                                                         35
    online purchases, and others grew in confidence with online retail, shifting                                                                                                                  31,152
    more of their spending to the online channel.                                                                    28.9
                                                                                                         27.4                                                                            28,623            30
                                                                                            25,000                                                  25.0                        25,973
    However, the recession in 2009 has acted as a severe brake on consumer
    spending, and inevitably online spending as well. That said, we estimate                                                                                           23,145                              25
    significant growth of 13.3% during 2009, although this is some way below the            20,000
                                                                                                                                                             20,876
    heady numbers experienced previously.                                                                                                                                                                  20
                                                                                                                                                  18,431
                                                                                            15,000
    The apparent robustness of e-retail through the recession has been driven by                                                                              13.3
                                                                                                                                       14,739                                    12.2                      15
    the bias of more affluent shoppers online who are often more resilient in                                                                                            10.7             10.2
    tougher times and the fact that the channel is still attracting new customers.          10,000                                                                                                 8.8
                                                                                                                            10,917                                                                         10
    Furthermore, the ease at which prices can be compared online has also
    encouraged more price sensitive recessionary shoppers to shop via the                                           8,183
                                                                                             5,000      6,250                                                                                              5
    internet.

    Going forward beyond 2009 and the recession, we believe sales growth will                     0                                                                                                        0
    not return to the pre-recession levels.                                                              2004        2005    2006       2007       2008       2009       2010   2011     2012     2013

    ACTION: The channel is slowly maturing, and with                                                                                            Spend £m             Growth
    many of the easy wins now maximised, further
                                                                                             Value of online expenditure 2004 to 2013 and growth rates
    progress will be much slower. Retailers now need to                                      Figures on the left axis (blue bars) £m; figures on the right axis (red line) %
    think more strategically about maximising revenue                                        Source: Verdict Analysis
                                                                                             © 2009, all rights reserved
    online.

9
The recession has impacted online
     “We estimate the recession has cost internet retailers around £1.6bn in lost revenues that it
     would have gained had the economy not fallen into recession.”



 Despite growing by an estimated 13.3% in 2009, online has certainly been
 impacted by the recession. Indeed, we estimate the recession has cost
 internet retailers around £1.6bn in total lost revenues.                                                                                             £22.5bn
 But with these sales now lost, and with early signs that a recovery may be
 beginning, retailers must turn their attention to operating in a post
 recessionary climate. The recession certainly caused customers to alter their
 purchasing patterns, but what is now important is how they will behave post                                                          £1.6bn of
 recession in 2010 and beyond.                                                                           £20.9bn                      lost sales
 During the recession there has been a real flight to value. Across all sectors
 those retailers with a clear low price and value message have done well,
 almost without exception. Of course, this focus on price has been helpful to
 the internet.

 However, as we move forward many customers will grow in confidence and
 begin to treat themselves once more. They will be more willing to trade up
 and buy higher priced goods. That said, they will still be cautious and the
 likely trend will be to buy fewer, higher priced items.

                                                                                                     2009                                              2009
 ACTION: A critical lesson for the online channel will be                                          Recession                                       No Recession*
 to add value and persuade customers to trade up in
 what they buy.
                                                                                  The cost of the recession to online retail expenditure
                                                                                  * Based on pre-recession forecasts
                                                                                  Source: Verdict Analysis
                                                                                  © 2009, all rights reserved


10
Acquiring new customers will be tougher
     “This year over 60% of shoppers will have used the internet to shop, and by 2012 we
     estimate this to reach over 66.6% or two thirds of shoppers – representing far lower growth
     than in the previous five years.”

 A key driver of the rapid growth in online retail has been the hoards of new
 shoppers dipping their toes into online shopping each year. Just five years
 ago only one in four shoppers used the internet, but by 2008 this had
 increased to one in two.
                                                                                                                                                                      66.6   67.1
                                                                                                                                                       63.3    64.8
 With the online shopping population growing at such break-neck speed,                                                                      60.3
 retailers found it relatively easy to grow their online sales. The sheer number
 of new shoppers entering the market alone was enough to drive sales                                                             53.4
 improvements.
                                                                                                                        45.7
 Inevitably the rate of growth of new online shoppers is beginning to slow.
 This year over 60% of shoppers will have used the internet to shop, and by                                      36.9
 2012 we estimate this to reach over 66.6% or two thirds of shoppers. This                        32.7
 represents far lower growth in shopper numbers than that experienced in the
 previous five years.
                                                                                    24.3
 The implication for online retailers, therefore, is that they will need to work
 much harder with what they already have in order to grow; they will not be
 able to rely on a steady stream of new customers to drive growth.


 ACTION: As acquiring new customers becomes more                                   2004          2005            2006   2007    2008        2009       2010    2011   2012   2013

 of a challenge, retailers should switch more marketing                            Proportion of total UK shoppers purchasing products online 2004 to 2013 %
 budget to maintaining existing customers and driving
 repeat business.                                                                  Source: Verdict Analysis
                                                                                   © 2009, all rights reserved




11
There will be more mouths to feed
     “For fragmented sectors such as clothing, footwear and homewares we expect the average
     number of stores visited online to rise even further.”



 Another challenge for retailers, is that the online retail space is now far more   3.5
 crowded than ever before. This, in short, means consumers now have a great
 deal of online choice.                                                                                2.9
                                                                                    3.0
 The chart opposite shows the average number of websites customers visit                                                   2.5
 before making an online purchase. In 2005 consumers did not really shop            2.5
                                                                                                                     2.2
 around a great deal; partly because there were fewer online players to select                   2.1                                         2.1
                                                                                                                                                               2.0
 from and partly because they wanted only to use retailers they had heard of.       2.0                                                1.8
                                                                                                                                                         1.7
                                                                                                                                                                            1.6 1.6
 However, this has now changed. More confident consumers, a greater                        1.5                1.5                                                                                 1.5
                                                                                                                                                                                            1.4               1.4 1.4
 choice of online retailers, and higher price sensitivity of shoppers means that    1.5                                                                               1.3                               1.3
                                                                                                                                                   1.2
 the average number of websites visited by consumers has increased                                                               1.1                                                  1.1
 markedly. In the clothing & footwear category for example, shoppers visit 2.1      1.0
 websites now compared to just 1.5 in 2005.
                                                                                    0.5
 As choice continues to increase, the number of online sites visited by
 consumers will generally grow still further. However for fairly consolidated
 sectors such as music & video and food we forecast shopping around will            0.0
 remain fairly static.                                                                     Clothing &             Electricals    Homewares          Health &           Music &          Books             Food
                                                                                           Footwear                                                  Beauty             Video
 With online consumers shopping around more, it is critical that internet
 retailers drive loyalty harder and differentiate themselves further from the                                                                2005    2009            2013e
 crowd.
                                                                                    Average number of websites shoppers visit before making a purchase 2005, 2009 and 2013e
 ACTION: Deep knowledge of your competitors’ online
                                                                                    Source: Verdict Analysis
 offerings coupled with sophisticated testing of                                    © 2009, all rights reserved

 different customer acquisition strategies, will be
 crucial to stay ahead of the market.
12
Expectations will rise
     “It will no longer be enough to simply show a product and a price and expect customers to
     make purchases.”



 It will become increasingly difficult to service online shoppers in the coming
 years. They are becoming more demanding and their expectations are                                       2000s                                            2010s
 escalating, which means that going forward retailers will have to work much
 harder to meet their needs.

 In its infancy, online retailing was relatively straightforward. The novelty and     Is the website fully transactional?                      Finalising a transaction is fast
 convenience (compared to traditional mail-order) drew customers to the idea
 of online shopping, and this was soon followed by the keen pricing of most
 online offers due to the often lower cost base.                                                  Can I search for it?                           Tell me what I should buy

 However, as more competition has entered the online arena, standing out
 has become much more challenging for retailers. In their pursuit to offer                  Will it be delivered soon?                                I want it tomorrow
 customers a better service than competitors, online facilities have vastly
 improved. Better search functionality, website personalisation, and faster,
 cheaper delivery are all areas which have moved forward in recent years.                      How much is delivery?                                  Delivery is included
 Indeed, Waitrose recently announced free delivery through its Waitrose
 Deliver business, while Amazon leads the way in offering personalised
 recommendations to its returning customers.                                         Is it possible to return a purchase?                       Return postage is included
 However, as retailers begin to improve these aspects of their offer, customers
 too are steadily demanding more and more. As you can see from the graphic                                                                   How much extra discount can I
                                                                                       Is this the cheapest I can get it?
 opposite, the expectations, demands and mentality of the 2010’s online                                                                      get / what extra value is offered
 shopper compared to one of the 2000s will be remarkably different.
                                                                                    Shifts in customer attitudes to online shopping 2000s and 2010s
 ACTION: Retailers must focus on adding more value
                                                                                    Source: Verdict Analysis
 than they have done in the past. They must clearly                                 © 2009, all rights reserved

 communicate why customers should shop with them,
 and what extra benefits can be gained from doing so.
13
Loyalty can be increased
     “A key aspect of online shopping is convenience. Retailers that increase the convenience of
     shopping with them, will engender repeat business, and with it loyalty.”



 The ease at which customers can flit from website to website and compare
 products means that loyalty in online retailing is significantly lower than in                      To drive loyalty, aim to be best in-class in these areas…
 store retailing. That said, there remain many opportunities for retailers to
 foster online loyalty across range, price, convenience and service functions.
                                                                                              Range                      Price            Convenience            Service
 A myriad of initiatives can be implemented in regard to range. Simple
 retailing basics such as targeting ranges, the correct use of sub branding, and
 meeting expectations of quality will all encourage shoppers to return. More
 specifically to online retail, ensuring new products are added to the site
 regularly will help foster frequent return visits among customers.                      Introduce new             Be competitive         Enable customers    Let customers
                                                                                         products regularly        particularly if        to check out in a   track orders –
                                                                                                                   product is             speedy fashion      keep them
 In price, being competitive is the most critical here – particularly if selling         Ensure products           homogenous                                 informed at all
 branded goods – but offering existing customers special deals and discounts             meet quality                                     Build search        stage of the
 frequently is a great way to encourage repeat spending and loyalty.                     expectations              Offer price            capabilities to     fulfilment process
                                                                                                                   incentives for         ensure customers
 A key aspect of online shopping is convenience, so rapid check out                      Target ranges to          regular and            find the right      Offer free delivery
 capabilities and efficient and quick search functionality are both areas here           core customer             returning              products, fast      and returns
 that can be exploited.                                                                  base                      customers
                                                                                                                                          Offer rapid         Click-to-chat
                                                                                                                   Fully justify prices   delivery options
                                                                                                                   of all products at                         Added value
 ACTION: Those retailers that offer a combination of                                                               all times                                  benefits: price
                                                                                                                                                              guarantees,
 one-off tactical deals to excite the customer, combined                                                                                                      insurance, etc.
 with long-term strategic programmes with extra value
 benefits to lock in customers, will have a winning
                                                                                   Strategies used to engender customer loyalty
 strategy.
                                                                                   Source: Verdict Analysis
                                                                                   © 2009, all rights reserved


14
Conversion will be key
     “Lifting daily conversion rates, unique visitor numbers and average transaction values by very
     small amounts, can collectively provide a sizable boost to sales.’’



 Another major challenge facing online retailers is how to boost conversion –
 the proportion of site visitors who actually buy something.                                  CURRENT                          SCENARIO 1                       SCENARIO 2
 The table opposite shows the impact on trade that only a small increase in
                                                                                              METRICS
 visitor numbers can have. In Scenario 1, if a retailer lifted daily conversion by                                                              NEW                          NEW
 just 0.1 percentage point (from 3.5% to 3.6%) it would contribute to a 2.9%                                                   CHANGE           METRICS         CHANGE       METRICS
 increase in sales.
                                                                                        Daily visitors             20,000            flat         20,000          +2%         20,400
 Further ways in which to boost conversion often surround making it easier for
 customers to check out and make a purchase. Rapid check out functionality
 and offering cheap, reliable and quick delivery and return procedures also             Conversion                 3.5%              +0.1% pt 3.6%                +0.1% pt    3.6%
 help here.

 Of course, there are other areas that online retailers can target, and when            Transactions               700               +2.9%        720             +4.9%       734
 combined with a focus on higher conversion rates, this can boost business
 further. In Scenario 2 (opposite) the increase in conversion rates (and
 therefore transactions is the same as in Scenario 1, but this time total
                                                                                        ATV                        £25.00            flat         £25.00          +3%         £26.25
 numbers of unique visitors to the site has risen by 2% while the average
 transaction value has increased by 3%. These small improvements in total
 contribute to sales growth of +10.1%.
                                                                                        Daily sales                £17,500           +2.9%        £18,000         +10.1%      £19,268

 ACTION: Website personalisation is a key way in
 which conversion can be grown. If ‘cherry-picked’                                   Example of how improving certain metrics can translate into higher sales
 products are pushed through to relevant customers
 when they visit a website they are far more likely to                               Source: Verdict Analysis
                                                                                     © 2009, all rights reserved
 see a product which appeals to them, and therefore
 make a purchase.
15
Basket abandonment is here to stay
     “We estimate over £2bn of potential sales are lost every year due to abandoned baskets.”




 One area where retailers lose potential sales is through basket abandonment.
 This is when a customer places products in to their virtual basket but does
 not go on to complete the transaction. We estimate over £2bn of potential
 sales are lost every year due to abandoned baskets; a figure which is likely to
 grow slightly over the next few years.
                                                                                        Reduce
                                                                                                                                                   Add more
                                                                                       number of                                                                 Cut out
 Though sometimes these abandonments are by no means the fault of a                                              Email ‘basket’   Introduce       information
                                                                                         clicks                                                                 ‘surprise’
 retailer, there are a number of steps that can be made to ensure                                                 to customer     click-to-call        &
                                                                                       needed to                                                                  costs
 abandonments are kept to a minimum.                                                                                                                guidance
                                                                                       check out
 The first is to make the check out process as quick, simple and easy as
 possible. Logically laid out screens, and as limiting the number of clicks
 needed to make a purchase are ways in which the process can be speeded
 up.

 Adding more information, guidance and customer reviews to product details,                  Reduced incidences of basket abandonment
 or even by introducing click-to-call services which allow customers to talk to
 representatives before making a purchase, will help reduce consumers having
 ‘second thoughts’ about making a purchase.

 Another reason for abandonment is when retailers add postal charges late on                                              Increased revenue
 in the check out process and this often frustrates shoppers. This is easily
 avoided.

 ACTION: Providing clear, accurate and detailed
                                                                                   Strategies to reduce the amount of basket abandonments
 information on products, prices and additional charges
 is a key way to reduce basket abandonment.                                        Source: Verdict Analysis
                                                                                   © 2009, all rights reserved


16
Customers will be channel blind
     “In 2009, we estimate that around 18.7% of all retail sales are made using two or more
     channels, and 4.2% using three or more channels. Numbers that could easily double by
     2020.”

                                                                                    Traditional shopper purchasing
 Going forward we will begin to see the boundaries between different
 shopping channels blurred.       Consumers will no longer use channels
 separately, but will demand to buy products through a variety of channels.               Stores                        Catalogue                           Online
 Indeed, this is already occurring with pioneering multichannel retailer Argos
 already reporting that cross channel sales account for 40% of its turnover.

 Traditionally there have been three standout ways in which people buy                                                   Purchase
 goods. These are in store, via a catalogue or online. Customers generally
 purchase goods through a single channel from beginning to end, though on
 occasion through a combination of two channels for example a customer
                                                                                    Shopper purchasing of the future 2020
 researching the product online before going into store to purchase it.

 However, going forward not only are there more channels through which
 products can be bought, but also the lines between the channels are blurring.            Stores                        Catalogue                           Online
 The buying process may well move through three or four separate channels
 from conception to creation. For example, a shopper might choose their
 shopping on their mobile phone/PDA, order it online and collect in store.
 Others might use an affiliate site as a start point which then directs them to a         Kiosks                          Mobile                           Affiliates
 retail site for further information and the product might be bought in store.

 With customers demanding to buy products the way they wish to, using a
 combination of channels, retailers will have to work hard to build synergies
 between those different channels. This is no easy task, as often retailers run
 their different channels separately.                                                                                    Purchase

                                                                                    Traditional and future shopper purchasing: Dashed line represents links between channels
 ACTION: Those retailers that offer multiple consumer                               (bolder lines equal stronger linkages)
 touch points will see benefits; though branding must                               Source: Verdict Analysis
 be consistent across all channels.                                                 © 2009, all rights reserved


17
It’s more than about selling
     “We estimate that in 2009 the potential value of the monetisation of retail websites, excluding
     any revenue from advertising banners, could be worth up to £220m. And, as e-retail continues
     to grow this figure will only increase: potentially up to £949.1m by 2013.”

 Retailers invest significant amounts of money in order to attract visitors to
 their websites so that customers will spend money with them. However,
 these customers can also generate revenue in the form of monetisation.

 The principle of monetisation is simple. It involves allowing third parties to                      Why should we consider monetisation?
 pitch their offers to a retailer’s web traffic. These offers could take the form of
 a discount and reward type programme, such as the Webloyalty concept,
 some other membership scheme or a one-off offer. Third parties will pay
 retailers for the privilege of being exposed to their web traffic and will also
 make payments for every conversion or sign up coming from the retailer’s
 site.                                                                                                               It is a new revenue stream
 Though these figures are fairly small in the context of retail sales, the fact that
 often these revenues can be generated with very few costs means that
 monetisation can be extremely lucrative. Often the right partner in this field
                                                                                                                It has huge growth potential
 will manage the whole process, leaving retailers to focus on selling products.

 All that retailers are required to do is to promote the third party offer on their          Partners will often manage the whole operation
 site. This can be achieved through a small advert or a click-through link.
 These can be placed on ‘non-transactional’ pages such as payment
 confirmation pages thereby turning these previously static pages into                         Some schemes will help boost retail sales too
 revenue generating areas of the site.


 ACTION: In order to boost revenue, retailers should
 consider monetising their web pages by linking with                                   Reasons to consider monetising online operations
 third parties that offer products and services that suit
 their target market.                                                                  Source: Verdict Analysis
                                                                                       © 2009, all rights reserved


18
Conclusions




     Growth will be more            The recession has             Acquiring new customers       There will be more           Expectations will
     difficult                      impacted                      will be tougher               mouths to feed               rise

     Retailers will have to work    The recession has cost        Retailers should shift        With online consumers        Low price is now expected
     much harder just to stand      retailers 1.6bn in lost       marketing budget to focus     shopping around more,        and is a weak
     still; we predict an average   revenues. Retailers will      on maintaining existing       fragmented sectors such as   differentiator: retailers
     growth of just 11% from        have to add value to their    customers and driving         clothing and footwear will   need to clearly
     2010 onwards, compared         online offers to persuade     repeat business               suffer most                  communicate the
     to almost 30% pre-2009         customers to trade up                                                                    additional benefits of
                                                                                                                             shopping with them




     Loyalty can be                 Conversion will               Basket abandonment is         Customers will be            Its more than about
     increased                      be key                        here to stay                  channel blind                selling

     A combination of offering      If retailers lift the daily   Basket abandonment,           By 2020 over 40% of all      Monetisation will generate
     tactical deals and offers to   conversion by just 0.1%,      which will amount to          retail sales could be made   incremental revenue for
     excite the customer,           unique visitors by 2% and     £2bn+ of lost sales per       using two or more retail     retailers: potentially up to
     combined with extra            the average transaction       year. Providing clear,        channels, while some sales   £949.1m extra by 2013
     added value benefits will      value by 3% - these small     accurate information on       may involve four or five
     be a winning strategy          improvements in total could   products, prices and          channels. Retailers that
                                    contribute to a total +10%    additional charges is a key   offer multiple consumer
                                    increase in sales growth      way to reduce this            touch points will be best
19
                                                                                                placed
3
About Webloyalty and Verdict
About Webloyalty


The Webloyalty concept


 Webloyalty is an example of a monetisation programme. The company offers
 consumers membership of a ‘shopper savings, discount and protection’
 programme called Shopper Discounts & Rewards. This enables them to receive
 ongoing discounts of up to 20% from over 900 online retailers; they also receive
 a suite of additional benefits such as Delivery Protection, free Extended
 Warrantees and Best Price Guarantees. Shoppers pay £10 per month to be a
 member of the Webloyalty programme and this is where the company makes its
 revenue.

 The programme is typically promoted to consumers on retailers’ websites via a
 link from a post-transactional page. Once they have completed their purchase
 shoppers are offered a free 30 day trial of the programme and an incentive in the
 form of money off their next purchase from the same retailer, as well as ongoing
 monthly money off offers for future purchases at that retailer. Webloyalty fund
 the money off discounts and also pay retailers a fee based on the number
 shoppers who join.

 From the retailers perspective, there is minimal work involved in promoting the
 Webloyalty programme. Each customer who joins is incentivised to return to visit
 the retailers’ site in order to redeem their initial voucher, and ongoing to redeem
 the monthly vouchers on offer, thus generating further valuable site traffic and
 revenue.
                                                                                       “From the retailer’s perspective, there is minimal
                                                                                         work involved in promoting the Webloyalty
                                                                                                         programme”

 Mail:             47-50 Margaret Street, London, W1W 8SB
 Email:            gill.hynes@webloyalty.co.uk
 Telephone:        +44 (0)02 7291 8724
 Web:              www.webloyalty.co.uk
                                                                                                                                            21
About Webloyalty


Why Webloyalty works




 As the United States arm of the business has proved, the Webloyalty model does            The second point is that the programme is customer centric. The customer
 work and it provides a good example of how retailers can successfully monetise            service ethos is to allow the shopper to contact Webloyalty via multiple channels
 their websites. So what characteristics make Webloyalty successful?                       to discuss any aspect of their membership. Should they ever wish to cancel their
                                                                                           membership at any point they can do so quickly and easily. This gives retailers a
                                                                                           degree of confidence in promoting the offer: they know that their own customers
 The first thing is that there is an alignment of interests. The savings and discount      are being offered something relevant and of genuine value.
 programme itself is of interest to shoppers and particularly to web shoppers who
 are more price sensitive than their offline counterparts. As a result of this retailers
 are comfortable promoting the offer and are provided with an additional revenue           The third point is that the programme offers relevant benefits over and above
 stream. Retailers also benefit because the programme itself helps them to drive           discounts. Delivery concerns, for example, are a key gripe of online shoppers. By
 repeat purchase and increase revenues. This influence should not be                       providing delivery protections/guarantees, Webloyalty can help minimise some
 underestimated. The money off future purchase voucher provided by Webloyalty              of the concerns in this area.
 to every shopper who signs up, encourages repeat purchases at no cost to the
 retailer.
                                                                                           The final point is that the programme is very easy for retailers to administer and
                                                                                           being positioned on a post transactional page it does not interfere with either the
                                                                                           purchase or browsing process.




                                                                                                                                                                             22
About Verdict




Attaining and maintaining competitive advantage in today’s highly pressured
marketplace requires business decisions to be based on highly focused research
and analysis. This needs to be evaluated against detailed knowledge of the
market, the competitive situation and your capabilities and objectives.

Verdict Consulting has an extensive track record of working with retailers and
those interested in retailing to help them grow their businesses and to make them
more profitable. Our consultants deliver high quality, effective solutions through
in-depth retail knowledge and a detailed understanding of the dynamics of the
sector.

We recognise that no two of our clients are alike so all of our services give you full
control over your research requirements and are designed to help you address the
key business challenges which are relevant to you. Our consultants have the skills,
knowledge and experience to help you through this process and thereby assist
                                                                                         Mail:        119 Farringdon Road, London EC1R 3DA
you in making better business decisions.                                                 Email:       consulting@verdict.co.uk
                                                                                         Telephone:   +44 (0)20 7551 9419
For more information on our range of services or for a free discussion about your        Web:         www.verdict.co.uk/consulting
requirements please contact us.




                                                                                                                                             23
Methodology




Verdict uses a rigorous integrated forecasting model that assesses retail’s           For e-retail specific data, we undertake an annual survey with a representative
position within the broader UK economy while also taking full account of the          sample of over 2,000 consumers asking them about their shopping habits,
performance of individual retail sectors and retailers.                               preferences and dynamics. This helps inform our market sizes and trends.

Our starting point for forecasting is to determine the outlook for the UK economy
over the next five years. A key source for this Ernst & Young ITEM Club – a forum
of independent economic analysts to which Verdict contributes that uses the
Treasury’s own economic model to produce forecasts for key economic
indicators.

The factors that influence our expectations of retail spending are analysed and
fed into our modelling process. We also consider the performance of individual
retailers. Combining our detailed knowledge of individual retailers’ businesses
built up through 25 years of exclusive focus on the retail sector and regular high
level high contact with retailers, we are able to map out how we expect them to
perform. Using this analysis we can then aggregate retailer expectations and
consider external factors relevant to each sector.

Pan-retail factors that we consider include demographic change, consumer
preferences, competitive pressures, operating cost increases and the availability
of new retail space.

Once provisional forecasts have been calculated an internal analysts’ forum is
held to challenge the validity of each of the forecasts and check that expectations
of each retail sector are compatible with expectations of other retail sectors and
for retail as a whole.
                                                                                                                                                                    24
Verdict Consulting
119 Farringdon Road
London
EC1R 3DA

T. 020 7551 9419
F. 020 7551 9090
E. consulting@verdict.co.uk
W. www.verdict.co.uk

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Internet retailing: how to ‘pull’ consumers online

  • 1. Internet retail trends 2010: Ten actions for your business A report by Verdict Consulting for Webloyalty November 2009
  • 2. Internet retail trends 2010: Ten actions for your business Report produced by Verdict Consulting for Webloyalty November 2009 Verdict Consulting 119 Farringdon Road London EC1R 3DA T. 020 7551 9419 F. 020 7551 9090 E. consulting@verdict.co.uk W. www.verdict.co.uk The consulting contacts for this project are: Neil Saunders (neils@verdict.co.uk) and James Flower (jamesf@verdict.co.uk) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Whether in printed or electronic form: no part of this publication may be copied, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted without the prior written permission of the publisher or under the terms of a licence issued by the publisher – Verdict Research Limited. All abstracting of the data for republication must have prior permission. In order to apply, an application form (available from Verdict) and draft copies of the proposed document must be submitted, together with full details of circulation and audience. All information will be treated in strictest confidence. Please note, consent is not given automatically and in certain instances a charge may be applicable. Reports are sold on the condition that they will not be circulated outside the staff who work at the address to which it is sent. An order for additional copies at reduced rates constitutes an undertaking by the subscriber that such copies will not be exported or distributed so as to avoid taking full price subscriptions elsewhere without prior agreement with the publisher. Printed reports are subject to the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 (CDPA). Please note, the Fair Dealing provisions of the CDPA do not allow copying of any part of printed publications for commercial usage of any kind. While information is compiled with due care, the publisher will not be liable for the consequences of anyone acting or refraining from acting in reliance on any information. © Verdict Research Limited 2009
  • 3. Table of contents Page Section 1 Introduction 04 The ten trends - in brief 06 Section 2 The ten trends and actions for retailers 08 Conclusions 19 Section 3 About Webloyalty and Verdict 21
  • 5. Introduction Over the last ten years the retail landscape has shifted and changed in many respects. Mergers and acquisitions have driven consolidation, some household retail names have vanished from our high streets, and some new product categories have emerged from what seems like nowhere. However, the single and most significant change in retail has been the emergence of the internet channel. “We have set out ten trends you Ten years ago, online retail was worth around £1bn and accounted for just 0.5% need to know about internet of all retail spending. Since then, it has grown by an average 37% per year and retailing in the 2010s. These are the is now worth over £20bn, with 7.3% of all purchasing going through the channel. major trends that, we believe, all And as more people have started to shop online, the dynamics of the channel retailers must consider when setting have evolved rapidly, with retailers having to improve and develop their websites out their online strategy for 2010 to ensure their customers receive the service they demand. Increased competition has also been key in this development as retailers have battled each and beyond” other to offer the best online functionality and service. While online retail will continue to grow significantly ahead of all other retail channels, the heady growth of the past decade will not be repeated, with no single year growing by more than 12.2%. The channel is a long way from maturity, but is certainly well past the fledgling days which saw the market double in size in some years. In light of this, we forecast growth at an average 11% per year for the foreseeable future. 5
  • 6. The ten trends Growth will be more The recession has Acquiring new customers There will be more Expectations will difficult impacted will be tougher mouths to feed rise As the sector matures, the The recession has certainly With the growth of ‘new’ Not only will there be As the channel matures, ‘mega’ growth retailers held back online internet shoppers more retailers operating online customer demands had grown used to will performance, but how will dwindling, competition online, but shoppers will and expectations will rise increasingly become a customers behave post- between retailers for their also visit more websites and meeting them will thing of the past recession? business will increase before making a purchase become more challenging Loyalty can be Conversion will Basket abandonment is Customers will be Its more than about increased be key here to stay channel blind selling Loyalty is lower online than Getting customers to visit a Customers will always Cross-channel purchasing With online growth in any other channel, but website will remain abandon their baskets, but is on the increase with slowing, retailers will look there are opportunities to important, but converting cutting down the number shoppers using a variety of at other non-core revenue increase online loyalty them into buyers will of times this happens will channels for a single generating activities such levels become more of an issue be key to growing sales purchase as monetisation 6
  • 7. The web of the web Retailers must understand that while the ten trends can be looked at in row atively isat ental h Mo increm growt isolation, they are also all inherently th g can nlin as ne s ion eg linked with one another and therefore driv e sale h acte sion form a complete system, or web. onlin net do e imp reces The Monetisation can help support Fe weaker sales caused by the recession ba wer ck ne gr w les ow cu e sa th sto One example of this web can be seen in ll m wi er n sw ts onli n regard to increasingly demanding h en er ea ill ho wt m m s su n m nt ld ease ro on t g nd on e ca nme customers. As customers become more r c nc share o we e nd ke a incr ar t ab Ne Lo nfid aba demanding it will be more challenging to the most loyal Thou e retail t o so co ore w t m ke elp ll add market on or as m ill h drive loyalty and convert site visitors into li pp r b gh th m re pro an suffer ne ous su we nw en purchasers. Fe miscu e rec t New ra rsio mar entran nt to meet customer expectations to capitalise c s w During a recession it is even more important k t Retailers with failu cros et with s can s nve essio customers wi ers a n loyalty il l Cu s chan new in timula on as many potential sales as possible d co su r es nel t ch stom sho novatio e the Impact chains can also be formed between n ha pp re mo an ppin ns in rove ne ers or g as cu a recessio s als the factors. An example of this is the to l p ar ur e d Imp nli ch as ema o ledowth Offering cross-channel ne could reduce the chances ing nd du c ing recession, which has made the importance gr op ing stom , re s of abandonment tio cr und s line g of meeting customer demands more ns os o e ar rt sale Durin s har rs to s suppo me usto s will h elp crucial than ever. If those customer wc t r ne nmen demands are met then the customer is Mon y and r we do rs loya h fe n g me Wit et aba in as usto Ne ova etisa lt ask e likely to buy more often from the retailer inn b cr c w tio in g d, stin fu n n s tion urn visit un exi which will increase both conversion and cti can o ar et e from ca n on ar loyalty rates, and of course boost the sales ali driv ist will hare sh end nd, m to share g as driv ty lp o s t sp w ing he a n l oy s er e poss tations a ’ line. rs custo wer ne eetin e ical m as m yalty s to d s alt s s expe custome s to cre e t en s is crit e rv y r c u lp in mers rs nd g lo me nm ca n do ter e w he New ice fe me pe sin sto an a r n i ll nts en co stimu mpetitio ex ab gre s tra ty ev for With ible e w Unsurprisingly all the factors lead back to sto e s rea cu la n er n rate w en yal ter expe tes custo y c arou fe ion man ew mea ion w cu reas , inc new s ctatio mer fro F ll ith rs Ne ke lo to fo ers ns wi nver s W nve market growth. Though going forward co ma rder play i n c u n d we r co ha stin g i online growth will be at a lower level to aro th fe Increasing conversion ex Wi becomes more challenging when previous years, there is still plenty of shoppers are more demanding ing and loyalt y growth to go for and the channel remains de m ke ster M ore ers ma om lt to fo the most appealing one to retailers. cust difficu e mor 7
  • 9. Growth will be more difficult “We predict growth of around 11% each year, which, though slower than previous years, remains extremely strong compared to growth rates in physical retail.’’ Pre 2009 growth = 2009 onward growth = If one thing is certain it’s that the rapid growth in online retailing is set to slow 29.9% pa average 11.0% pa average 35,000 40 over the next five years. Since 2004, growth rates in the high twenties and 35.0 even low thirties were the order of the day as more consumers began making 33.4 30,000 35 online purchases, and others grew in confidence with online retail, shifting 31,152 more of their spending to the online channel. 28.9 27.4 28,623 30 25,000 25.0 25,973 However, the recession in 2009 has acted as a severe brake on consumer spending, and inevitably online spending as well. That said, we estimate 23,145 25 significant growth of 13.3% during 2009, although this is some way below the 20,000 20,876 heady numbers experienced previously. 20 18,431 15,000 The apparent robustness of e-retail through the recession has been driven by 13.3 14,739 12.2 15 the bias of more affluent shoppers online who are often more resilient in 10.7 10.2 tougher times and the fact that the channel is still attracting new customers. 10,000 8.8 10,917 10 Furthermore, the ease at which prices can be compared online has also encouraged more price sensitive recessionary shoppers to shop via the 8,183 5,000 6,250 5 internet. Going forward beyond 2009 and the recession, we believe sales growth will 0 0 not return to the pre-recession levels. 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 ACTION: The channel is slowly maturing, and with Spend £m Growth many of the easy wins now maximised, further Value of online expenditure 2004 to 2013 and growth rates progress will be much slower. Retailers now need to Figures on the left axis (blue bars) £m; figures on the right axis (red line) % think more strategically about maximising revenue Source: Verdict Analysis © 2009, all rights reserved online. 9
  • 10. The recession has impacted online “We estimate the recession has cost internet retailers around £1.6bn in lost revenues that it would have gained had the economy not fallen into recession.” Despite growing by an estimated 13.3% in 2009, online has certainly been impacted by the recession. Indeed, we estimate the recession has cost internet retailers around £1.6bn in total lost revenues. £22.5bn But with these sales now lost, and with early signs that a recovery may be beginning, retailers must turn their attention to operating in a post recessionary climate. The recession certainly caused customers to alter their purchasing patterns, but what is now important is how they will behave post £1.6bn of recession in 2010 and beyond. £20.9bn lost sales During the recession there has been a real flight to value. Across all sectors those retailers with a clear low price and value message have done well, almost without exception. Of course, this focus on price has been helpful to the internet. However, as we move forward many customers will grow in confidence and begin to treat themselves once more. They will be more willing to trade up and buy higher priced goods. That said, they will still be cautious and the likely trend will be to buy fewer, higher priced items. 2009 2009 ACTION: A critical lesson for the online channel will be Recession No Recession* to add value and persuade customers to trade up in what they buy. The cost of the recession to online retail expenditure * Based on pre-recession forecasts Source: Verdict Analysis © 2009, all rights reserved 10
  • 11. Acquiring new customers will be tougher “This year over 60% of shoppers will have used the internet to shop, and by 2012 we estimate this to reach over 66.6% or two thirds of shoppers – representing far lower growth than in the previous five years.” A key driver of the rapid growth in online retail has been the hoards of new shoppers dipping their toes into online shopping each year. Just five years ago only one in four shoppers used the internet, but by 2008 this had increased to one in two. 66.6 67.1 63.3 64.8 With the online shopping population growing at such break-neck speed, 60.3 retailers found it relatively easy to grow their online sales. The sheer number of new shoppers entering the market alone was enough to drive sales 53.4 improvements. 45.7 Inevitably the rate of growth of new online shoppers is beginning to slow. This year over 60% of shoppers will have used the internet to shop, and by 36.9 2012 we estimate this to reach over 66.6% or two thirds of shoppers. This 32.7 represents far lower growth in shopper numbers than that experienced in the previous five years. 24.3 The implication for online retailers, therefore, is that they will need to work much harder with what they already have in order to grow; they will not be able to rely on a steady stream of new customers to drive growth. ACTION: As acquiring new customers becomes more 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 of a challenge, retailers should switch more marketing Proportion of total UK shoppers purchasing products online 2004 to 2013 % budget to maintaining existing customers and driving repeat business. Source: Verdict Analysis © 2009, all rights reserved 11
  • 12. There will be more mouths to feed “For fragmented sectors such as clothing, footwear and homewares we expect the average number of stores visited online to rise even further.” Another challenge for retailers, is that the online retail space is now far more 3.5 crowded than ever before. This, in short, means consumers now have a great deal of online choice. 2.9 3.0 The chart opposite shows the average number of websites customers visit 2.5 before making an online purchase. In 2005 consumers did not really shop 2.5 2.2 around a great deal; partly because there were fewer online players to select 2.1 2.1 2.0 from and partly because they wanted only to use retailers they had heard of. 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 However, this has now changed. More confident consumers, a greater 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 choice of online retailers, and higher price sensitivity of shoppers means that 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 the average number of websites visited by consumers has increased 1.1 1.1 markedly. In the clothing & footwear category for example, shoppers visit 2.1 1.0 websites now compared to just 1.5 in 2005. 0.5 As choice continues to increase, the number of online sites visited by consumers will generally grow still further. However for fairly consolidated sectors such as music & video and food we forecast shopping around will 0.0 remain fairly static. Clothing & Electricals Homewares Health & Music & Books Food Footwear Beauty Video With online consumers shopping around more, it is critical that internet retailers drive loyalty harder and differentiate themselves further from the 2005 2009 2013e crowd. Average number of websites shoppers visit before making a purchase 2005, 2009 and 2013e ACTION: Deep knowledge of your competitors’ online Source: Verdict Analysis offerings coupled with sophisticated testing of © 2009, all rights reserved different customer acquisition strategies, will be crucial to stay ahead of the market. 12
  • 13. Expectations will rise “It will no longer be enough to simply show a product and a price and expect customers to make purchases.” It will become increasingly difficult to service online shoppers in the coming years. They are becoming more demanding and their expectations are 2000s 2010s escalating, which means that going forward retailers will have to work much harder to meet their needs. In its infancy, online retailing was relatively straightforward. The novelty and Is the website fully transactional? Finalising a transaction is fast convenience (compared to traditional mail-order) drew customers to the idea of online shopping, and this was soon followed by the keen pricing of most online offers due to the often lower cost base. Can I search for it? Tell me what I should buy However, as more competition has entered the online arena, standing out has become much more challenging for retailers. In their pursuit to offer Will it be delivered soon? I want it tomorrow customers a better service than competitors, online facilities have vastly improved. Better search functionality, website personalisation, and faster, cheaper delivery are all areas which have moved forward in recent years. How much is delivery? Delivery is included Indeed, Waitrose recently announced free delivery through its Waitrose Deliver business, while Amazon leads the way in offering personalised recommendations to its returning customers. Is it possible to return a purchase? Return postage is included However, as retailers begin to improve these aspects of their offer, customers too are steadily demanding more and more. As you can see from the graphic How much extra discount can I Is this the cheapest I can get it? opposite, the expectations, demands and mentality of the 2010’s online get / what extra value is offered shopper compared to one of the 2000s will be remarkably different. Shifts in customer attitudes to online shopping 2000s and 2010s ACTION: Retailers must focus on adding more value Source: Verdict Analysis than they have done in the past. They must clearly © 2009, all rights reserved communicate why customers should shop with them, and what extra benefits can be gained from doing so. 13
  • 14. Loyalty can be increased “A key aspect of online shopping is convenience. Retailers that increase the convenience of shopping with them, will engender repeat business, and with it loyalty.” The ease at which customers can flit from website to website and compare products means that loyalty in online retailing is significantly lower than in To drive loyalty, aim to be best in-class in these areas… store retailing. That said, there remain many opportunities for retailers to foster online loyalty across range, price, convenience and service functions. Range Price Convenience Service A myriad of initiatives can be implemented in regard to range. Simple retailing basics such as targeting ranges, the correct use of sub branding, and meeting expectations of quality will all encourage shoppers to return. More specifically to online retail, ensuring new products are added to the site regularly will help foster frequent return visits among customers. Introduce new Be competitive Enable customers Let customers products regularly particularly if to check out in a track orders – product is speedy fashion keep them In price, being competitive is the most critical here – particularly if selling Ensure products homogenous informed at all branded goods – but offering existing customers special deals and discounts meet quality Build search stage of the frequently is a great way to encourage repeat spending and loyalty. expectations Offer price capabilities to fulfilment process incentives for ensure customers A key aspect of online shopping is convenience, so rapid check out Target ranges to regular and find the right Offer free delivery capabilities and efficient and quick search functionality are both areas here core customer returning products, fast and returns that can be exploited. base customers Offer rapid Click-to-chat Fully justify prices delivery options of all products at Added value ACTION: Those retailers that offer a combination of all times benefits: price guarantees, one-off tactical deals to excite the customer, combined insurance, etc. with long-term strategic programmes with extra value benefits to lock in customers, will have a winning Strategies used to engender customer loyalty strategy. Source: Verdict Analysis © 2009, all rights reserved 14
  • 15. Conversion will be key “Lifting daily conversion rates, unique visitor numbers and average transaction values by very small amounts, can collectively provide a sizable boost to sales.’’ Another major challenge facing online retailers is how to boost conversion – the proportion of site visitors who actually buy something. CURRENT SCENARIO 1 SCENARIO 2 The table opposite shows the impact on trade that only a small increase in METRICS visitor numbers can have. In Scenario 1, if a retailer lifted daily conversion by NEW NEW just 0.1 percentage point (from 3.5% to 3.6%) it would contribute to a 2.9% CHANGE METRICS CHANGE METRICS increase in sales. Daily visitors 20,000 flat 20,000 +2% 20,400 Further ways in which to boost conversion often surround making it easier for customers to check out and make a purchase. Rapid check out functionality and offering cheap, reliable and quick delivery and return procedures also Conversion 3.5% +0.1% pt 3.6% +0.1% pt 3.6% help here. Of course, there are other areas that online retailers can target, and when Transactions 700 +2.9% 720 +4.9% 734 combined with a focus on higher conversion rates, this can boost business further. In Scenario 2 (opposite) the increase in conversion rates (and therefore transactions is the same as in Scenario 1, but this time total ATV £25.00 flat £25.00 +3% £26.25 numbers of unique visitors to the site has risen by 2% while the average transaction value has increased by 3%. These small improvements in total contribute to sales growth of +10.1%. Daily sales £17,500 +2.9% £18,000 +10.1% £19,268 ACTION: Website personalisation is a key way in which conversion can be grown. If ‘cherry-picked’ Example of how improving certain metrics can translate into higher sales products are pushed through to relevant customers when they visit a website they are far more likely to Source: Verdict Analysis © 2009, all rights reserved see a product which appeals to them, and therefore make a purchase. 15
  • 16. Basket abandonment is here to stay “We estimate over £2bn of potential sales are lost every year due to abandoned baskets.” One area where retailers lose potential sales is through basket abandonment. This is when a customer places products in to their virtual basket but does not go on to complete the transaction. We estimate over £2bn of potential sales are lost every year due to abandoned baskets; a figure which is likely to grow slightly over the next few years. Reduce Add more number of Cut out Though sometimes these abandonments are by no means the fault of a Email ‘basket’ Introduce information clicks ‘surprise’ retailer, there are a number of steps that can be made to ensure to customer click-to-call & needed to costs abandonments are kept to a minimum. guidance check out The first is to make the check out process as quick, simple and easy as possible. Logically laid out screens, and as limiting the number of clicks needed to make a purchase are ways in which the process can be speeded up. Adding more information, guidance and customer reviews to product details, Reduced incidences of basket abandonment or even by introducing click-to-call services which allow customers to talk to representatives before making a purchase, will help reduce consumers having ‘second thoughts’ about making a purchase. Another reason for abandonment is when retailers add postal charges late on Increased revenue in the check out process and this often frustrates shoppers. This is easily avoided. ACTION: Providing clear, accurate and detailed Strategies to reduce the amount of basket abandonments information on products, prices and additional charges is a key way to reduce basket abandonment. Source: Verdict Analysis © 2009, all rights reserved 16
  • 17. Customers will be channel blind “In 2009, we estimate that around 18.7% of all retail sales are made using two or more channels, and 4.2% using three or more channels. Numbers that could easily double by 2020.” Traditional shopper purchasing Going forward we will begin to see the boundaries between different shopping channels blurred. Consumers will no longer use channels separately, but will demand to buy products through a variety of channels. Stores Catalogue Online Indeed, this is already occurring with pioneering multichannel retailer Argos already reporting that cross channel sales account for 40% of its turnover. Traditionally there have been three standout ways in which people buy Purchase goods. These are in store, via a catalogue or online. Customers generally purchase goods through a single channel from beginning to end, though on occasion through a combination of two channels for example a customer Shopper purchasing of the future 2020 researching the product online before going into store to purchase it. However, going forward not only are there more channels through which products can be bought, but also the lines between the channels are blurring. Stores Catalogue Online The buying process may well move through three or four separate channels from conception to creation. For example, a shopper might choose their shopping on their mobile phone/PDA, order it online and collect in store. Others might use an affiliate site as a start point which then directs them to a Kiosks Mobile Affiliates retail site for further information and the product might be bought in store. With customers demanding to buy products the way they wish to, using a combination of channels, retailers will have to work hard to build synergies between those different channels. This is no easy task, as often retailers run their different channels separately. Purchase Traditional and future shopper purchasing: Dashed line represents links between channels ACTION: Those retailers that offer multiple consumer (bolder lines equal stronger linkages) touch points will see benefits; though branding must Source: Verdict Analysis be consistent across all channels. © 2009, all rights reserved 17
  • 18. It’s more than about selling “We estimate that in 2009 the potential value of the monetisation of retail websites, excluding any revenue from advertising banners, could be worth up to £220m. And, as e-retail continues to grow this figure will only increase: potentially up to £949.1m by 2013.” Retailers invest significant amounts of money in order to attract visitors to their websites so that customers will spend money with them. However, these customers can also generate revenue in the form of monetisation. The principle of monetisation is simple. It involves allowing third parties to Why should we consider monetisation? pitch their offers to a retailer’s web traffic. These offers could take the form of a discount and reward type programme, such as the Webloyalty concept, some other membership scheme or a one-off offer. Third parties will pay retailers for the privilege of being exposed to their web traffic and will also make payments for every conversion or sign up coming from the retailer’s site. It is a new revenue stream Though these figures are fairly small in the context of retail sales, the fact that often these revenues can be generated with very few costs means that monetisation can be extremely lucrative. Often the right partner in this field It has huge growth potential will manage the whole process, leaving retailers to focus on selling products. All that retailers are required to do is to promote the third party offer on their Partners will often manage the whole operation site. This can be achieved through a small advert or a click-through link. These can be placed on ‘non-transactional’ pages such as payment confirmation pages thereby turning these previously static pages into Some schemes will help boost retail sales too revenue generating areas of the site. ACTION: In order to boost revenue, retailers should consider monetising their web pages by linking with Reasons to consider monetising online operations third parties that offer products and services that suit their target market. Source: Verdict Analysis © 2009, all rights reserved 18
  • 19. Conclusions Growth will be more The recession has Acquiring new customers There will be more Expectations will difficult impacted will be tougher mouths to feed rise Retailers will have to work The recession has cost Retailers should shift With online consumers Low price is now expected much harder just to stand retailers 1.6bn in lost marketing budget to focus shopping around more, and is a weak still; we predict an average revenues. Retailers will on maintaining existing fragmented sectors such as differentiator: retailers growth of just 11% from have to add value to their customers and driving clothing and footwear will need to clearly 2010 onwards, compared online offers to persuade repeat business suffer most communicate the to almost 30% pre-2009 customers to trade up additional benefits of shopping with them Loyalty can be Conversion will Basket abandonment is Customers will be Its more than about increased be key here to stay channel blind selling A combination of offering If retailers lift the daily Basket abandonment, By 2020 over 40% of all Monetisation will generate tactical deals and offers to conversion by just 0.1%, which will amount to retail sales could be made incremental revenue for excite the customer, unique visitors by 2% and £2bn+ of lost sales per using two or more retail retailers: potentially up to combined with extra the average transaction year. Providing clear, channels, while some sales £949.1m extra by 2013 added value benefits will value by 3% - these small accurate information on may involve four or five be a winning strategy improvements in total could products, prices and channels. Retailers that contribute to a total +10% additional charges is a key offer multiple consumer increase in sales growth way to reduce this touch points will be best 19 placed
  • 21. About Webloyalty The Webloyalty concept Webloyalty is an example of a monetisation programme. The company offers consumers membership of a ‘shopper savings, discount and protection’ programme called Shopper Discounts & Rewards. This enables them to receive ongoing discounts of up to 20% from over 900 online retailers; they also receive a suite of additional benefits such as Delivery Protection, free Extended Warrantees and Best Price Guarantees. Shoppers pay £10 per month to be a member of the Webloyalty programme and this is where the company makes its revenue. The programme is typically promoted to consumers on retailers’ websites via a link from a post-transactional page. Once they have completed their purchase shoppers are offered a free 30 day trial of the programme and an incentive in the form of money off their next purchase from the same retailer, as well as ongoing monthly money off offers for future purchases at that retailer. Webloyalty fund the money off discounts and also pay retailers a fee based on the number shoppers who join. From the retailers perspective, there is minimal work involved in promoting the Webloyalty programme. Each customer who joins is incentivised to return to visit the retailers’ site in order to redeem their initial voucher, and ongoing to redeem the monthly vouchers on offer, thus generating further valuable site traffic and revenue. “From the retailer’s perspective, there is minimal work involved in promoting the Webloyalty programme” Mail: 47-50 Margaret Street, London, W1W 8SB Email: gill.hynes@webloyalty.co.uk Telephone: +44 (0)02 7291 8724 Web: www.webloyalty.co.uk 21
  • 22. About Webloyalty Why Webloyalty works As the United States arm of the business has proved, the Webloyalty model does The second point is that the programme is customer centric. The customer work and it provides a good example of how retailers can successfully monetise service ethos is to allow the shopper to contact Webloyalty via multiple channels their websites. So what characteristics make Webloyalty successful? to discuss any aspect of their membership. Should they ever wish to cancel their membership at any point they can do so quickly and easily. This gives retailers a degree of confidence in promoting the offer: they know that their own customers The first thing is that there is an alignment of interests. The savings and discount are being offered something relevant and of genuine value. programme itself is of interest to shoppers and particularly to web shoppers who are more price sensitive than their offline counterparts. As a result of this retailers are comfortable promoting the offer and are provided with an additional revenue The third point is that the programme offers relevant benefits over and above stream. Retailers also benefit because the programme itself helps them to drive discounts. Delivery concerns, for example, are a key gripe of online shoppers. By repeat purchase and increase revenues. This influence should not be providing delivery protections/guarantees, Webloyalty can help minimise some underestimated. The money off future purchase voucher provided by Webloyalty of the concerns in this area. to every shopper who signs up, encourages repeat purchases at no cost to the retailer. The final point is that the programme is very easy for retailers to administer and being positioned on a post transactional page it does not interfere with either the purchase or browsing process. 22
  • 23. About Verdict Attaining and maintaining competitive advantage in today’s highly pressured marketplace requires business decisions to be based on highly focused research and analysis. This needs to be evaluated against detailed knowledge of the market, the competitive situation and your capabilities and objectives. Verdict Consulting has an extensive track record of working with retailers and those interested in retailing to help them grow their businesses and to make them more profitable. Our consultants deliver high quality, effective solutions through in-depth retail knowledge and a detailed understanding of the dynamics of the sector. We recognise that no two of our clients are alike so all of our services give you full control over your research requirements and are designed to help you address the key business challenges which are relevant to you. Our consultants have the skills, knowledge and experience to help you through this process and thereby assist Mail: 119 Farringdon Road, London EC1R 3DA you in making better business decisions. Email: consulting@verdict.co.uk Telephone: +44 (0)20 7551 9419 For more information on our range of services or for a free discussion about your Web: www.verdict.co.uk/consulting requirements please contact us. 23
  • 24. Methodology Verdict uses a rigorous integrated forecasting model that assesses retail’s For e-retail specific data, we undertake an annual survey with a representative position within the broader UK economy while also taking full account of the sample of over 2,000 consumers asking them about their shopping habits, performance of individual retail sectors and retailers. preferences and dynamics. This helps inform our market sizes and trends. Our starting point for forecasting is to determine the outlook for the UK economy over the next five years. A key source for this Ernst & Young ITEM Club – a forum of independent economic analysts to which Verdict contributes that uses the Treasury’s own economic model to produce forecasts for key economic indicators. The factors that influence our expectations of retail spending are analysed and fed into our modelling process. We also consider the performance of individual retailers. Combining our detailed knowledge of individual retailers’ businesses built up through 25 years of exclusive focus on the retail sector and regular high level high contact with retailers, we are able to map out how we expect them to perform. Using this analysis we can then aggregate retailer expectations and consider external factors relevant to each sector. Pan-retail factors that we consider include demographic change, consumer preferences, competitive pressures, operating cost increases and the availability of new retail space. Once provisional forecasts have been calculated an internal analysts’ forum is held to challenge the validity of each of the forecasts and check that expectations of each retail sector are compatible with expectations of other retail sectors and for retail as a whole. 24
  • 25. Verdict Consulting 119 Farringdon Road London EC1R 3DA T. 020 7551 9419 F. 020 7551 9090 E. consulting@verdict.co.uk W. www.verdict.co.uk