Slides from Bernd Eggen, Health Protection agency. Presented at the third meeting of the Communicating Climate Change group, European Centre for Environment and Human Health, Truro, UK

1. Climate Change & Health
Health Effects of Climate Change in the UK
& Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA)
Bernd Eggen, Principal Climate Change Scientist
Air Pollution and Climate Change Group
HPA Chilton

2. Contents
 Climate change in the UK and further afield
 Health Effects of Climate Change (HECC 2012)
 UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA)
Further reading

3. Practical (?) Take on the HECC Report

4. Climate Change - Evidence
Atmospheric concentration of CO2 is increasing (pre-
industrial approx 280ppm, currently near 400ppm); other
greenhouse gases (methane, nitrous oxide etc) have also
increased. Observed changes to the Earth’s climate system
include:
 ocean acidification
 increase in global surface temperatures
 sea level rise
 shrinking ice sheets & decline in Arctic sea ice cover
 more extreme events (heatwaves, flooding etc)

5. Greenhouse Gases at Record Levels
According to latest GHG Bulletin of WMO (20 Nov 2012)

6. New Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent 2012

7. approx 0.7ºC
rise already

8. Climate & Extremes
Climate is defined as a long-term (typically 30-year) average
of weather; however, in recent years new techniques have
become available which allow attribution of individual extreme
events (heatwaves, flooding, drought etc) to climate change.
One of the first such demonstrations was for the 2003
European heatwave (Stott, 2004).

9. Climate change around the globe
2012: world’s 10th warmest year, 3rd warmest year
with La Niña on record
(La Niña
events
cool trop.
Pacific;
El Niño
events
warm it;
both have
global
impacts)

10. Climate change around the globe
2010 was one of the warmest
individual years on record, tying
with 2005 & 1998. Not
surprisingly, Berkeley
Earth Surface Tem-
perature study (BEST)
confirms findings of
UKMO, NOAA & NASA

11. Climate change in the UK
2011 is second warmest year on record for the UK (after
2006).
2012 starts with drought in large parts of south, central and
eastern England, while UK rainfall was about average
(climate variability). In contrast, summer 2012 was one of
the wettest on record.
Drier than usual soils can
contribute to heatwaves in
summer, as little / no evapo-
rative cooling.

12. Health Effects of Climate Change
History: First report published in 2001, based on UKCIP
1998 projections, update of 2008 was based on UKCIP 2002
projections. These projections were essentially based on a
single climate model run (for each emission scenario).
The 2012 update is based on UKCP09, which are
probabilistic in nature (derived from multiple climate model
runs with slightly different parameterisations). Also new
insights into climate variability (e.g. cold winters, Arctic
ozone hole).
URL http://www.hpa.org.uk/hecc2012
[22 authors; approx ½ from HPA; some 240 pages]

13. Health Effects of Climate Change - TOC
1 Climate change in the UK: current evidence and projections
2 Temperature effects of climate change on health
3 Health effects from changes in air pollution
4 Changes in aeroallergens associated with pollen grains and fungal spores,
and potential impacts on human health
5 Health effects of climate change in the indoor environment
6 Changes in UV radiation and the effects on health
7 Health Impacts of Flooding, and Climate Change Adaptation
8 Impact of climate change on vector-borne disease in the UK
9 Water and food-borne diseases
10 The health benefits of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions

14. Temperature effects of CC on health
Heat-related mortality is predicted to increase steeply in the
UK in the 21st century. We predict approximately
• 68% in the 2020s
• 262% in the 2050s (increases compared with the 2000s baseline)
• 554% in the 2080s
The South East, London, East and West Midlands, the East
of England and the South West appear to be most
vulnerable to current and future effects of hot weather.
The elderly, particularly those over 85 years of age, are
much more vulnerable to extreme heat and cold compared
to younger age groups. Future risk will therefore be
amplified by an aging population in the UK.

15. Mixed Messages – How to Communicate ?
Green: longest
cold spell
Blue: average
winter
temperature

16. Health effects from changes in air
pollution (e.g. ground level ozone)
The extent of adverse health impact (deaths brought forward
and hospitalization) depends markedly on the assumption of
a threshold concentration for O3 below which there is no
impact.
Under the assumption of no threshold for O3 effect, total UK
deaths brought forward increases 4% on the 2003 baseline
mortality of 12,000 for the sensitivity experiment with 5°C
temperature increase. The largest mortality increases are in
London, South East and East England and the smallest in
Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales.
With a threshold for O3 impacts mortality figures are lower.

17. Changes in UVR & effects on health
Climate change may affect ambient levels of ultraviolet
radiation (UVR) in the UK. However, the critical factors
affecting human exposure are lifestyle and behaviour. If
outdoor workers are exposed to higher levels of UVR
throughout their working lives, this is likely to increase the
risk of non-melanoma skin cancers.
Data from HPA’s solar monitoring sites suggest that a small
upward trend in total solar UVR reaching the Earth in the
UK is slowing. However, occasional events, such as
stratospheric ozone holes over the Arctic region, may
contribute to increased incidents of erythema.

18. Climate Change Risk Assessment
 CCRA published Jan 2012 (by Defra)
 CCRA reviewed evidence for 700+ potential impacts
 detailed analysis undertaken for 100+ of these impacts
 across 11 key sectors (including health)
 assessed for:
 likelihood
 scale of potential consequences
 urgency for action

19. CCRA
Sectors:
1)Agriculture
2)Biodiversity and
Ecosystem Services
3)Built Environment
4)Business, Industry and
Services
5)Energy
6)Floods and Coastal
Erosion
7)Forestry
8)Health
9)Marine and Fisheries
10)Transport
11)Water

20. CCRA – Health Chapter
Study co-lead by Sotiris Vardoulakis (HPA)
Focus on:
 Heat
 Cold
 UV
 Ozone
 Flooding and Storms
(in bold with high confidence, others medium confidence, except for UV)

21. Conclusions
 projections of temperature effects on vulnerable people
have high confidence
 projections on health effects of ground level ozone, pollen
and other air pollutants have medium confidence
 extreme weather events & their effects onto physical
resources and mental well being of people need significant
further research
 while winters are gradually getting milder, there are still
significant number of cold snaps
 analysis of existing and future climate and health data sets
is a priority

22. Further reading I
Books:
 The Health Practitioner's Guide
to Climate Change:
Diagnosis and Cure (2009)
 Changing Planet, Changing Health:
How the Climate Crisis Threatens Our Health
and What We Can Do about It (2011)

23. Further reading II
Reports:
 HPA’s “Health Effects of Climate Change in the UK 2012”
via URL http://www.hpa.org.uk/hecc2012
 DH’s original report (2001) & update (2008)
“Health effects of climate change in the UK”
via URL http://www.dh.gov.uk/
 CCRA report (2012), Health section (summary, full report)
URL http://randd.defra.gov.uk/Document.aspx?Document=CCRASummaryHealth.pdf
URL http://randd.defra.gov.uk/Document.aspx?Document=CCRAfortheHealthSector.pdf

24. Further reading III
International Reports:
 IPCC’s SREX report (2012)
“Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to
Advance Climate Change Adaptation”
URL http://ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/
 EEA (2012)
“Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012”
URL http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/climate-impacts-and-vulnerability-2012
 WHO & WMO (2012) “Atlas of Health and Climate”
URL http://www.wmo.int/ebooks/WHO/Atlas_EN_web.pdf

25. Thank you for your attention
Any questions ?
bernd.eggen@hpa.org.uk

26. AMO – warm phase leading to wetter
summers in Northern Europe

28. An Official American Thoracic Society
Workshop Report: Climate Change
and Human Health (15 Mar 2012)

29. UK Climate Impacts Programme
(UKCIP)
To project likely changes in future climates, complex
computer models (GCMs) are run on powerful super-
computers. Climate models are not perfect and some
meteorological processes need to be “parameterised” –
different parameterisations lead to different projections.
In previous climate projections for the UK, only single
projections for a given emission scenario were available,
making quantification of uncertainties difficult.
In the current projections (UKCP09), multiple versions of
climate models (with slightly different parameterisations)
have been evaluated to give more confidence in the likely
range of outcomes.

30. UKCP09
previous situation (UKCIP02) current situation (UKCP09)
Probability
-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% +10% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% +10%
2080s SE England summer rainfall 2080s SE England summer rainfall

31. UKCP09 User Interface & Outputs
100
Probability of rise being less than
90
80
70
60
cumulative
probability probability
(%)
50
40
of change 30
20
of change
at a location 10
0
at a location
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Temperature rise degC
joint
probability
of change in
maps of two variables
change at
a certain
probability time series
of change
at different
probabilities