China Scenarios

WORLD SCENARIO SERIES
COMMITTED TO
IMPROVING THE STATE
OF THE WORLD

China and the World: Scenarios to 2025

Executive Summary

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Executive Summary

Unfulfilled
Promise

New Silk
Road

Regional
Ties


Executive Summary
Executive Summary

China’s economic development over the past A number of factors will influence how these
two decades has surprised both her critics and questions are answered in the next two
supporters. Since 1978 when China launched decades :
•
its “Four Modernizations” reform process under The intent of China’s leadership and its
the leadership of Deng Xiaoping, growth has ability to sustain the implementation of
averaged 9.5 % annually. As a result, China has decisions made ;
•
climbed in world rankings to become the sixth The economic policy choices made,
largest economy in terms of nominal gross including the degree of liberalization and
domestic product. openness ;
•
Thus in the last few years China has The extent to which social stability can be
become the focus of much attention. Some maintained and popular expectations
parts of business, academia, government and managed ;
•
civil society are more highly engaged in China The reaction of other global actors to
than ever before. All need to think about what China’s rise, and the broader geopolitical
could happen next. But China’s future is not situation.
merely of interest for experts. China’s impact on
global growth, resource allocation, trade and Based on these factors and core questions,
investment, as well as geopolitical balance has three scenarios emerge for “China and the
direct consequences for every part of the planet. World” over the next 20 years. The different
paths for China through to 2025 are
Key Questions for the Scenarios represented in figure 1.
When looking at the future of China, two core
questions stand out :
• Can China implement internal
reforms to further its development ?
• How will China’s relationship with
the rest of the world affect its
development and shape the global
context ?

2

Executive Summary
Figure 1

Unfulfilled
Promise
INCLUSIVE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT

New Silk
Road

INEFFECTIVE INSTITUTIONAL REFORMS EFFECTIVE INSTITUTIONAL REFORMS
DISCRIMINATIVE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT

Regional
Ties

Regional Ties is a story that plays out in by security concerns. New Silk Road
a global environment where trade is hindered describes a China which is well on its way to
by protectionism. China increasingly turns to achieving balanced development. This success
the Asian region to provide the motor for its is driven by strong and inclusive global
trade and investment and to support it on a economic growth, with an emphasis on
path of reform and economic development. trade integration and cross-border flows.
In Unfulfilled Promise, China struggles to It is backed up in China by well executed
implement tough reforms. This has negative financial, legal and administrative reforms,
consequences for its economic, social and and the progressive emergence of a middle
ecological development. There is continued class and internal market.
economic integration globally, but it is tempered

3

Regional Ties Regional Ties describes how China continues on the path of
reform despite an international environment that becomes
increasingly difficult. Chinese leadership and vision facilitate

the forging of regional ties that help overcome historical
enmities and restore prosperity in Asia.

The scenario is written as a Government White Paper, reflecting
on 20 years of progress in China, a medium often used by the
Chinese government to communicate to the public-at-large on
a major issue, to lay out its policy or to reflect on the past.
Executive Summary

Unfulfilled Unfulfilled Promise describes a China where the desire for
Promise economic development is not supported by the necessary
structural reforms. The name reflects the general sentiment
among the Chinese people that the promise made to them in
terms of inclusive economic development has been largely
unfulfilled.

The story is told as an article in a Western online journal and
reviews China’s development over the period 2006-2025.

New Silk Road New Silk Road describes the flourishing economic and
cultural rise of China, a feat achieved despite the presence
of substantial internal obstacles. The scenario reflects
China’s peaceful geopolitical integration and its sizeable role
in the exchange of goods, services, investments and ideas.
In this way it recreates the original Silk Road.

The scenario is told using the Online Encyclopaedia of the
World and provides a factual account of what China has
achieved over a 20-year period.

4

2006-2010: Governments in Europe and North America, neighbours in Asia. Formalization of these regional
suffering from growing economic demands and domestic relationships leads to the establishment of an Asian
pressures, eye China’s impressive economic growth and its Economic Region, allowing the free movement of goods,
emergence as an increasingly significant actor on the world capital and labour.

stage with increasing concern. A pattern of protectionist
behaviour surfaces, blocking attempts by Chinese corporations 2021-2025 : Despite a relatively depressed global economic
to invest and trade and restricting the free flow of technology outlook, China succeeds in maintaining social cohesion and
and ideas. sustaining economic development by building on its regional
ties. A multi-polar world emerges with China guiding an
2011-2020: As the global economy slows, several Asian sphere of influence.
multinational corporations sell their manufacturing
operations in China. When exports weaken so does growth,
creating social discontent. The Chinese government reacts

Executive Summary
by creating social safety nets, focusing on the development
of its domestic market and improving its relationships with

2006-2010: Transition towards a free market economy 2021-2025 : The negative economic and social trends
continues, but the central government is reluctant to push become apparent both within and outside of China.
through too much change for fear of social unrest. In some The central government seeks to tighten control, worsening
cases, faced with powerful local vested interests and the economic situation, in part, as it puts limits on some of
prevailing corruption of local authorities, it is also unable to the remaining entrepreneurs and initiatives. Nevertheless,
enforce reforms. This undermines the country’s economic there are signs of change. Richer provinces try to implement
growth. their own reforms, and Beijing is determined to try again
with its own projects. But is this too little, too late ?
2011-2020: Global trade and economic integration are
shaped by security concerns that hinder knowledge sharing,
innovation and labour and capital mobility. China’s international
competitiveness gradually falls and levels of foreign investment
drop significantly as intellectual property protection and
enforcement remain inadequate and innovation is limited.
By 2020, China’s economic growth slows significantly,
accentuating social unrest.

2006-2010: The focus remains on expanding exports, domestic reforms and a growing middle class provide the
attracting foreign investment and creating jobs to manage building blocks to develop the Chinese market. This allows
the rural-urban transition. The Chinese government is not for a measure of social security and resource redistribution
distracted by fear of unrest and resolutely stays on the path within the country.
of reform. Problems concerning state-owned enterprises
(SOEs), the banking sector, the environment and rule of law 2021-2025 : A growing appetite for political freedom
are all addressed. Moreover, Beijing undertakes direct emerges as media controls diminish, individual rights and
public consultation as a means of legitimizing its initiatives civil liberties improve and the separation of the judicial,
and disciplining recalcitrant local barons. legislative and executive branches is openly discussed.
Some challenges remain as average incomes are still below
2011-2020: China actively engages with the world. those of developed countries and the problems related to
It plays a constructive role by helping with peacekeeping, an ageing population need addressing. However, it is clear
seeking to reduce the dangers of conflict in Asia, and even that by 2025 China is on its way to achieving balanced
taking important steps with the international community development and sustained high growth, and is a respected
to improve climate security and reduce the global global actor.
5
environmental footprint of energy use. At the same time,


Unfulfilled
Promise

New Silk
Road
Executive Summary

Regional
Ties

Comparing the Three Scenarios

The table below provides a comparison of some of the most important aspects of the scenarios

Regional Ties Unfulfilled Promise New Silk Road

• Reactive leadership— • Next generation leadership
Leadership & governance • Strong one-party leadership
lacking in long-term vision more open to individual
• Strategic vision helps to
• Fear of dissent within the rights and social liberties
weather the economic crisis
ranks hinders local reform • Foundations are laid for the
enforcement separation of judicial,
legislative and executive
powers

• Growth eventually slows as • Balanced growth based on
Economic performance • Global slowdown affects
export weakens and both external and domestic
exports to Europe and North
domestic market demand market development
America, triggering a focus
does not significally increase • High growth continues
on domestic and Asian
markets

• Unbalanced development • Reforms of SOEs and
Social development • China succeeds in
driven by coastal areas accelerated urbanisation
maintaining social stability
• High disparities across combined with an
and cohesion despite a
regions and classes insufficient social safety net
depressed global
cause some initial concerns
environment
• Inequality is tackled in
• Emphasis is placed on
earnest as of 2015
social inclusion and the
development of social
systems

• Aspiration to be a major • China plays an increasingly
External relationships • Successful regional ties fuel
global player not fulfilled active role on the world
growth and prosperity in the
• Lagging reforms affect stage and in international
region after the Western
relations and trade organisations
countries shift attention
away from the region

6

Acknowledgements
Annex : Comparing the Three Scenarios
This section provides an overview of how Using the data
selected economic and social indicators in The data could be used for developing leading
China and the world may evolve over time. indicators to determine which of the three
The various futures described in the scenarios scenarios is actually unfolding. Users should
have been quantified using macroeconomic bear in mind that the scenarios and related
modelling to ensure plausibility and internal analysis are descriptions of only a set of possible
consistency. futures as seen from the current perspective.
The comparative analysis of the three They should not be seen as predictions or
scenarios focuses on the following indicators : forecasts. Hence the data provided serves only
as a guide and should be applied and
1. World Gross Domestic Product monitored with careful judgement.
(GDP) growth
2. GDP growth of major economies 1. World Gross Domestic Product
3. China’s share of world trade (GDP) growth
4. Foreign direct investment in China In New Silk Road, the global economy
5. China’s GDP growth benefits from increasing globalization and trade
6. China’s GDP per capita in a harmonious global environment and
7. Development of China’s health reaches growth rates of up to 4%. In contrast,
sector in Regional Ties, lack of trust undermines
8. Development of R&D in China international cooperation and trade integration
9. Evolution of income inequality stalls leading to a global recession in 2010-
in China 2014. In Unfulfilled Promise, although global
10. Social security expenditures in China integration progresses, scepticism prevails,
preventing the global economy from reaching
the full benefits of globalization.

World Growth
Figure A.1

World Real GDP Growth p.a. (5-year moving averages)
5
Percentages

4

3

2

1

Actual Projected
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
7
Source: Moody’s Economy.com

Acknowledgements

Growth of Selected Economies – Regional Ties
Figure A.2.a
2. GDP growth of major economies
Real GDP Growth p.a. (average 2020-2025) Percentages

In the last five years of the scenario period,
China 7.5
China becomes the fastest growing among the
India 6.4
large economies in the world in two scenarios :
Brazil 4.3
New Silk Road and Regional Ties. Only in
Unfulfilled Promise is it overtaken—albeit USA 2.5
by a narrow margin—by India. In general, in all Japan 2.2
three scenarios, emerging markets continue
EU Zone 2.0
to catch up with developed economies.
Russia 0.8
2025
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Growth of Selected Economies – Unfulfilled Promise
Figure A.2.b


India 6.0

China 6.0

Brazil 4.1

USA 3.0

EU Zone 2.1

Russia 1.8

Japan 1.7
2025
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Growth of Selected Economies – New Silk Road
Figure A.2.c


China 9.0

India 6.0

Brazil 4.3

Russia 4.2

USA 3.4

EU Zone 2.3

Japan 2.1
2025
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

8

Annex: Comparing The Three Scenarios
3. China’s share of world trade

China’s share of world trade will grow considerably in all three scenarios. A protectionist backlash
in Regional Ties reduces the growth rate considerably around 2012.
In Unfulfilled Promise, China is not able to maintain its share by 2025.

China’s Exports
Figure A.3

China’s Share of World Trade in Merchandise (5-year moving averages)
Percentages

8

6

4

2

0 Actual Projected

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025


4. Foreign direct investment in China

As the developed world closes its doors to China in Regional Ties, foreign direct investment
(FDI) inflow stalls for a few years before it picks up again once closer economic relations with
neighbouring Asian countries are developed. In Unfulfilled Promise the Chinese economy
is feeling the results of reform failure as of 2020 when a significant drop in FDI inflows occurs.

Foreign Direct Investment in China
Figure A.4

Net FDI Inflows to China
300
Billion US$

250
200
150
100
50
0 Actual Projected

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025


9

Annex: Comparing The Three Scenarios

5. China’s GDP growth

In Unfulfilled Promise, the inability to implement reforms reduces the benefits of international
integration and seriously slows economic growth in China. In New Silk Road, China reforms
internally and manages to make the rate sustainable by tackling the side effects of growth.
In Regional Ties, China suffers a slowdown in 2012 before it successfully establishes trade links
with neighbouring countries and boosts domestic consumption.

China’s Growth
Figure A.5

China’s Real GDP Growth p.a. (5-year moving averages)
10
Percentages

9
8
7
6
5
4
3 Actual Projected

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025


6. China’s GDP per capita

All three alternative futures witness at least a quadrupling of per capita GDP over the scenario
period. The growth is highest in New Silk Road, where real GDP per capita reaches US$ 6,220
in 2025. In Regional Ties, GDP per capita stays behind Unfulfilled Promise due to the impact
of the 2012 recession but it almost catches up towards the end of the scenario.

China’s GDP per Capita
Figure A.6

China’s Real GDP per Capita, 2025
2000 US$

7,000 6,220
6,000
4,820
5,000 4,640
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
GDP per Capita in 2005

10

Acknowledgements
7. Development of China’s health sector

The health sector’s share of GDP increases towards the end of New Silk Road compared
to Unfulfilled Promise, where limited healthcare reforms are undertaken. In Regional Ties,
China invests in health services after the crisis of 2012, leading to visible improvements in 2015.

China’s Health Sector
Figure A.7

Share of Healthcare Services in China’s GDP
Percentages

3

2

1

0
2005 2015 2025 2005 2015 2025 2005 2015 2025


8. Development of R&D in China

In New Silk Road, the government recognizes that a future-oriented economy needs to invest
in research and development—knowledge based sectors develop increasingly and China becomes
a key destination for outsourcing of research activities. Thanks to increased educational spending
in Regional Ties and to close interactions with countries in the region, research also develops
significantly. But, R&D remains relatively unimportant in Unfulfilled Promise as the right incentives
are not put in place, and funding remains limited.

China’s R&D Sector
Figure A.8

Share of R&D Services in China’s GDP
Percentages

3

2

1

0
2005 2015 2025 2005 2015 2025 2005 2015 2025


11


9. Evolution of income inequality in China
Acknowledgements

The central government’s efforts to reduce inequalities and develop internal demand pay off in
Regional Ties and New Silk Road. In Regional Ties, inequality is lower in 2025 compared to
2000 while in New Silk Road, the increasing inequality trend observed in the first half of the
scenario is later reversed to go back to roughly the same Gini index level in 2025 as in 2000. On
the other hand, wealth created in the Unfulfilled Promise scenario benefits only a limited part of
the population, with inequality soaring in the second half of the scenario.

Evolution of Income Inequality in China
Figure A.9

Gini Income Inequality Index
55 55 55
Actual

Actual

Actual
Projected Projected Projected

50 50 50
Increasing
inequality
45 45 45
Decreasing
inequality
40 40 40

35 35 35
2000 2025 2000 2025 2000 2025


Note: Gini index is a measure of dispersion in the income distribution of a population. The index
ranges from 0 to 100 where 0 reflects a situation where all individuals have the same income
(no inequality) while higher values reflect increasing inequality.

10. Social security expenditures in China

Social security expenditures increase markedly in all three scenarios over the 20-year period.
In terms of level, the expenditures are highest in New Silk Road, reaching roughly 2,300 billion
dollars in 2025. On the other hand, Regional Ties has the highest share of social security
spending in GDP in 2025. Unfulfilled Promise lags behind with only half the Regional Ties social
security spending in 2025, reflecting the limited social reforms undertaken in that scenario.

Social Security Expenditures Increase in China
Figure A.10

Social Security Spending
2,500
Billion US$

Actual Projected
2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
12

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