5. Housing market 2004-2013
“Robust demand will require producLon
of 2 million new housing units a year.
“The naLonal homeownership rate will
exceed 70 percent by 2013.
“Home price appreciaLon will average
5% a year 2004‐2013.
“Mortgage originaLons are projected to
average nearly $3 trillion per year.”
The Next Decade for Housing and Mortgage Finance (2004‐2013)
Homeownership Alliance: www.homeownership.com Report available at
www.freddiemac.com/news/pdf/
6.
7.
8. The cost of poor foresight:
Poor decisions:
business, economy, public policy
environment, defense, etc.
9.
10. ‘Levels’ view of future uncertainty
1 2
1. Low uncertainty. Clear
view of the future. A
Dependable outcome
B
2. Limited set of possible
C
future outcomes, one
of which will occur
3 4
3. Outcomes
indeterminate, but
bounded in a range ?
4. A limitless range of
possible outcomes.
HUGH COURTNEY ET Al; 2020 FORESIGHT, HBS PRESS, 2001
11. Chapter 1. Forecast Intentions
Chapter 2. Quality of Information
Chapter 3. Bias Traps
Chapter 4. Zeitgeist & Perception
Chapter 5. User Utility
Chapter 6. A DEFT View of Trends
Chapter 7. Limits of Quantitative Forecasting
Chapter 8. A Systems Perspective
Chapter 9. Anticipating Alternative Outcomes
Chapter 10. Case Studies
Chapter 11. Quality in Foresight ‘Cheat Sheet’