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© 2013 1
Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved.
LED In Road & Street Lighting
Market Analysis, Applications, Technology Trends & Industry Status
Sample
75 cours Emile Zola, F-69001 Lyon-Villeurbanne, France
Tel : +33 472 83 01 80 - Fax : +33 472 83 01 83
www.yole.fr
11 rue Jean Macé, F-69600 Oullins, France
Tel : +33 686 086 239
www.luxfit.eu
© 2013 2
Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved.
Table Of Contents (1/4)
• About The Authors Of The Report P6
• Introduction To The Report P7
• Objectives Of The Report P8
• Executive Summary P9
• Overview Of Road And Street Lighting P30
– Applications
• Outdoor Lighting Applications
– Introduction
– Segmentation
• Road And Street Lighting
– Application Segmentation
– Product Segmentation
• From Watts to Lumens
– Market Data
• Market Size ($) And Volume (Units)
– What Do We Count?
• 2012 Data
– Overview
– Analysis By Region
» Overview
» Focus on BRIC
– Analysis By Application
– Actors Of The Business Chain
• Route To Market In Outdoor Lighting Projects
• End Users
• Specifiers And Influencers
– Overview
– Lighting Designers
• Installers
• Distributors
• Manufacturers
– Overview
– Focus On The Lighting Industry
– Other Players
– Supply Chain
• Conventional Road And Street Lighting Supply Chain
• Trends
– Market Drivers
• Safety, Security And Quality Of Life Aspects
• Environmental Aspects
• Economic Aspects
• Regulatory And Standardization Aspects
– Overview
– Example Of EN 13201
© 2013 3
Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved.
Table Of Contents (2/4)
• The LED Value Proposition P68
– Conventional Luminaire vs. LED Luminaire: A New Approach To
Luminaire Design
• Conventional Luminaire vs. LED Luminaire
– Main Design Differences
– Comparison Of Cost Structure And Margin
– A Major Evolution In Product Design
– Managing The Light Source - Towards Modularity
– An Internal Revolution Within The Company
• LED Strengths And Weaknesses
– LED Technology Applied To Road And Street Lighting
• Drivers for LED Adoption In Road And Street Lighting
• The New Key Decision-Making Criterion: ROI
• Example Of Payback Calculation
• Focus On Mesopic Photometry: Towards A New Evaluation of LED
Performance
• Focus On Melatonin Secretion
• Alternative Technologies
– Overview
– Summary Table
• Impact Of LED Adoption On The Poles And Brackets Industry
• Impact Of LED Adoption On The Controls Industry
• Focus On Telemanagement
• Focus On Smart Grids
• Lighting Design Requirements
– Designing In Road And Street Lighting
– Implications Of LED Lighting
– LED Technology Applied To Road And Street Lighting
• Operation And Maintenance Requirements
• Focus On Lifetime And The « Warranty War »
• Economic Requirements
• Regulation And Standards: Expectations And Fulfilment
• Luminaire Design Standardization: LED Replacement And Upgrade
• Next Technological Steps And Consequences
– LED Performance And Cost
– Towards Intelligent Lighting
• Focus On Glare Issue
– LED Light Engine Technology
• Definition & Characteristics
• Optics
• Modularity
• Thermal Management
– Overview Per Application
• Highway And Road Lighting
• Residential And Amenity Lighting
• Tunnel Lighting
• LED Supply Chain (1/2) P115
– Introduction
• LED Road And Street Lighting Supply Chain
– Overview
– What Change From Traditional Supply Chain?
• Competitive Landscape
– Traditional Players And New Entrants
– 2012 Market Share
© 2013 4
Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved.
Table Of Contents (3/4)
• LED Supply Chain (2/2) P115
– Key Players Company Profiles
• Cooper
• CREE
• General Electric
• Osram
• Philips
• Schréder
• Toshiba
• Zumtobel
• Drivers for LED Technology P130
– Technology Drivers
• Expected Cost of LEDs
• Impact Of Technology Improvements
• Service And Upgrade
• Role Of The Component Technology Roadmap
• Trend: A New Automotive Lighting Approach
– Application Drivers
• Intelligent Lighting
• Less Lumen, More Current
• 100% LED In Tunnels
– Economic Drivers
• Energy Efficiency
• Impact Of Global Urbanization
• New Business Models
• Industry Trend: Toward Vertical Integration
• Market Metrics And Trends: The LED Revolution P148
– Lumen Consumption Forecast
• General Lighting
– Introduction
– IEA and SNL Models
– Model Developed in the Report
• Road and Street Lighting
– Overview
– Analysis Per Segment
– LED Adoption For Road And Street Lighting
• Adoption By Application
• Adoption By Region
– Luminaire Market For Road And Street Lighting (System Level)
• Total Luminaire Market For Road And Street Lighting
– Installed Base (2008 - 2020) - Split By Application
– Installed Base (2008 - 2020) - Split By Region
• LED Luminaire Market For Road And Street Lighting
– Market Volume (2008 - 2020) - Split By Application
– Market Volume (2008 - 2020) - Split by Region
– LED Luminaire ASP (2008 - 2020)
– Market Size (2008 - 2020) - Split By Application
– Market Size (2008 - 2020) - Split By Region
– Packaged LED Market For Road And Street Lighting (Device Level)
• Market Volume (2008 - 2020)
• Market Size (2008 - 2020)
• General Conclusion P170
© 2013 5
Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved.
Table Of Contents (4/4)
• Appendix P173
– Glossary
– Index Of Companies And Organizations
• About Yole Développement and LED Activity P180
© 2013 6
Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved.
Introduction To The Report
• Within less than a decade, the LED technology has generated more turmoil in the lighting industry than
anything that had happened in the previous century. All professionals agree today that what used to be a
conservative, well-controlled market is undergoing a massive change, referred to as “the LED revolution”.
• Therefore, it is high time to take a close look at what is happening, and why. Whilst a lot of information
on the lighting industry at large is already available from various sources, each of its application
segments, be it indoor or outdoor, has its own way of adopting LEDs - and this is worth documenting.
• Outdoor lighting is no stranger to the revolution. As a matter of fact, it is today one of the two most
dynamic segments of the general lighting market for LED adoption.
• Within this, architectural lighting has been the early adopter. But the main carrier is now definitely road &
street lighting. Historically the largest outdoor segment, it also offers now the highest prospects for LED
development in professional exterior lighting.
• Road and street lighting is also a very attractive market: EBIT levels are generally between 5 and 15%, and
growth remains steady despite economic downturns.
• In that context, Yole Développement and Lux Fit represent the best fit, in order to provide professionals
with a tool for decision-making in this segment. The ambition of this report is nothing short of being their
best ally, in the coming months, for their strategic choices in road and street lighting.
• Your feedback will be instrumental in making it even more powerful in future issues.
© 2013 7
Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved.
Objectives Of The Report
• To provide readers with a description and evolution of the road & street lighting market,
technologies, and industry playground.
• To describe how LEDs are penetrating this market (drivers, strategies, players, technologies)
and how they will deeply alter its structure.
• To provide readers with market metrics & dynamics, industry evolution forecasts and
projection from both business and technology standpoints.
© 2013 8
Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved.
The Road And Street Lighting Market
Overview
• Road and street lighting is one of the three main
segments of outdoor professional lighting.
• Key figures (2012 estimations):
– Revenue: $XXB (lamps + luminaires).
– Volume: ~XXM units.
– Installed base: ~XXM light points.
– Electricity consumption: XXTWh.
• The three main applications in road and street
lighting correspond to six main product categories.
• Each application has the following weight in value:
– Highway and road: ~XX%.
– Residential and amenity: ~XX%.
– Tunnel: ~ XX%.
• The main market players are:
– End-users: Public authorities, private investors.
– Specifiers: Consultants, engineers, lighting designers.
– Installers: Contractors, utilities, facility managers.
– Suppliers: Distributors and manufacturers.
A traditional, profitable industry centered on public end-users.
Highway
& Road
Residential
Street
& Amenity
Tunnel
Functional Road
Lantern
High Power Floodlight
Decorative Street
Lantern
Heritage Lantern
Post-top Decorative /
Architectural Luminaire
Tunnel Luminaire
© 2013 9
Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved.
Route To Market In Outdoor Lighting Projects
Supplier
Distributor Manufacturer
Installer
Contractor Utility Facility Manager
Specifier
Consultant Architect
Engineering
Bureau
Lighting
Designer
End User
Local authority
Highway
authority
Private investor
StakeholdersInfluencers Role
Motorists
Cyclists
Pedestrians
Residents
Visitors
Lobbies
Politicians
Local
businesses
FUNDING
DESIGNING
SPECIFYING
INSTALLING
MAINTAINING
DELIVERING
SERVICING
© 2013 10
Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved.
End Users (1/2)
• Within public end-users1, different forces are at play:
– A technical competence, proposing decisions on rational criteria
(typically the public lighting department of a city).
– A political competence, making decisions under the influence of
more emotional criteria (pleasing voters being often on the
hidden agenda).
• Therefore the complexity of decision-making must be fully
grasped and may vary greatly from one project to the other,
even with the same players.
• Additionally, due to the specific functioning of public
administrations, decision-making may result quite lengthy
due to:
– Public budgeting cycles.
– Mandatory council votes for investments.
– Election cycles that may either hasten or delay decisions.
End users are mainly public.
1. The LUCI network groups over 60 cities around urban lighting, with the aim of sharing good practice and developing knowledge in this area
Street lighting inauguration in Muddebhihal, India
Public lighting as a political tool
The political agenda has a clear impact on public lighting.
Most manufacturers report a recurring sales peak in the
year prior to a local election, and a subsequent drop in
the ensuing 1-2 years.
Lighting is a political tool because:
• It is very visible to voters.
• It is a relatively easy and quick infrastructure
investment.
• Compared to other investments (e.g.: building a
library), it requires a smaller budget.
© 2013 11
Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved.
The Road And Street Lighting Industry (2/2)
Leading outdoor luminaire suppliers by geographical region.
Latin America:
North America:
Middle East and Africa:
CIS countries: Asia / Pacific:
Focus on China
Focus on India
Focus on Pacific
Focus on Japan
Europe:
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XXXX
XX XX
XX XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
© 2013 12
Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved.
Safety, Security And Quality Of Life Aspects
• Safety remains the #1 driver of the road and street lighting market.
It is translated into different areas of application:
– Traffic safety: A constant drive to improve visibility in order to prevent
accidents.
– Users safety: A need to assure that the installed equipment will not
cause injuries (falling luminaires…).
– Operators safety: In particular, electrical safety is a must.
• Security is also a strong driver in this segment. This applies
specifically to the urban installations.
– Regular studies bring evidence and counter-evidence of lighting as a
contributor to urban security at night… Debate continues!
• Quality of life has emerged in the last decade, although it has lost
some attention with the more recent upsurge of energy efficiency.
– Visual comfort is expected: With higher colour rendering, adequate
colour temperatures, glare control.
– Landscape integration is also a clear preoccupation: initially purely
functional, road and street lighting is increasingly integrating aesthetics
criteria driving the segment’s expectations towards architectural
outdoor lighting. Significantly, industrial designers are now involved in
most luminaire and pole development projects.
Pictures from GE
A case for white light
Even before the start of the « LED
revolution », white light has emerged as
a strong industry trend. It is valued for:
• Its comfort – A colour temperature
closer to that of daylight, as opposed
to the orange glow of sodium; and
better colour rendering.
• Its safety – Improved peripheral
vision and quicker response,
evidenced by research.
• Its security – Improved facial
recognition, and clear preference by
CCTV operators.
© 2013 13
Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved.
LED Light Engine
Thermal Management - Introduction
• Traditionally, there are 3 level of thermal management for LED-based lighting products… However, in
some cases (Chip On Board or Chip On Fixture), there can be only 1 or 2 level(s) of thermal management.
• Heat is an issue in LED-based lighting systems as it can have 3 main consequences:
– Decrease of lumen output in the time.
– Derating of flux in the time.
– Increase of failure rates.
• Maximize Maintenance / Flux
• Minimize Failures
REQUIREMENT =
© 2013 14
Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved.
Application Focus - Tunnel Lighting
• Tunnel lighting offers strong opportunities for LEDs. The #1 benefit of LEDs in tunnel is lifetime, a clear
advantage where maintenance generates heavy costs and disturbances (traffic interruption…).
• The LED technology cannot yet fully cover all of tunnel lighting. This is owed to the various zones,
requiring different luminance levels. Until now, LED solutions have been feasible for the transit and
interior zones (3 & 4 on the diagram). Higher light output solutions are needed to meet the requirements
of the other zones, especially the access and threshold zones. LEDs can technically address these, but are
not yet economically feasible without a control system.
• Tunnel lighting represents a huge opportunity for LED solutions. For example:
Europe has over XXkm of road tunnels (Italy XXkm, Norway XXkm) / China has XXkm of road tunnels / The USA and
Canada have XXkm of road tunnels.
• China and Italy have programmes to convert road tunnels to LED lighting:
– Autostrade per l’Italia has initiated in 2008 the replacement of XX luminaires in its XXkm of tunnels.
Cree’s The Edge TSP was selected
by Autostrade per l’Italia
for their tunnel refurbishments
© 2013 15
Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved.
LED Luminaire Market For Road And Street Lighting
Market Volume (2008 - 2020) - Split By Application
• Residential, amenity and tunnel lighting was the main driver for LED luminaire market in 2012… However,
the technology should really trigger highway and road lighting applications starting from 2013.
• LED luminaire market volume should boom until 2017 (XXMunits) and then stabilize until 2020 (XXMunits)
due to decrease of replacement market (with the higher lifetime of LED-based system).
In 2012, LED luminaire for road and street lighting represented a market volume of nearly XXMunits.
Remark:
In our scenario, we assume a moderate
replacement rate of conventional
luminaires (i.e. replacement by LED
luminaires before end of life of
conventional luminaires) explaining market
volume stabilization by 2016 - 2017...
… However, should this replacement rate
get higher, market volume could continue
to increase until 2019 - 2020.
© 2013 16
Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved.
75 cours Emile Zola, F-69001 Lyon-Villeurbanne, France
Tel : +33 472 83 01 80 - Fax : +33 472 83 01 83
Web: http://www.yole.fr
About Yole Développement and LED
Activity
© 2013 17
Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved.
Yole Développement
Field of Research Activity
• Yole Développement is a market research and strategic consulting company founded in 1998.
• We are involved in the following areas:
• Our research is acquired by in-house personnel via open-ended discussions and interviews.
– We employ 32 full-time analysts with technical and marketing degrees
– Primary research includes over 3,500 interviews per year
© 2013 18
Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved.
Yole Développement
Around the World
We are present in Europe, North America and Asia
Lyon, France -
Headquarters
40% of our activity is in
Europe
30% of our activity is in
Asia
30% of our activity is in
North America
Yole Inc.
Yole Japan
Yole Korea
Yole Taiwan
Yole Paris
System Plus
Consulting
© 2013 19
Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved.
Yole Développement
Mission Statement – Knowledge-Based Company
• We help our customers develop their business through specific analysis and reports, including:
– Accurate market data, market segmentation and marketing analysis.
– Technical evaluation, technology cost and Cost of Ownership (COO) analysis.
– Patent portfolio analysis.
– Freedom to operate analysis.
– Strategic analysis to enhance company and business unit performance.
– Strategic development support (growth opportunities identification, M&A support, investor(s)
identification,etc.).
– Advertising opportunities in Yole’s magazines, webinars and specific events.
• Our customers get measurable, operational results from our actions!
© 2013 20
Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved.
Supporting the Entire Value Chain
Yole consultants provide Market Analysis, Technology Evaluation and Business Plan Assessment for
customers along the entire value chain
© 2013 21
Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved.
About Yole’s LED Analyst Team
Dr. Philippe ROUSSEL - Business Unit Manager
Dr. Philippe ROUSSEL holds a PhD in Integrated Electronics Systems from the
National Institute of Applied Sciences of Lyon (INSA - France). He joined Yole
Développement in 1998 and is Business Unit Manager of the Compound
Semiconductors, Photovoltaic, LED and Power Electronics department.
Dr. Eric VIREY - Senior Analyst
Dr. Eric VIREY holds a PhD in Optoelectronics from the National Polytechnic Institute
of Grenoble (INPG - France). In the last 12 years, he has held various R&D,
engineering, manufacturing and marketing positions with Saint-Gobain. Most recently,
he was Market Manager at Saint-Gobain Crystals, in charge of Sapphire and
Optoelectronic products.
Pars MUKISH - Analyst
Pars MUKISH holds a master’s degree in Materials Science & Polymers and a
master’s in Innovation & Technology Management (EM Lyon - France). He works at
Yole Développement as Market and Technology Analyst in the fields of LED and
Lighting Technologies, carrying out technical, economic and marketing analysis.
Previously, he was a Marketing and Techno-Economic Analyst for several years with
the CEA.
© 2013 22
Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved.
Yole Activities
www.yole.fr
YOLE FINANCE
M&A / Due Diligence /
Fund raising services
www.yolefinance.com
MEDIA
News feed / Magazines / Webcasts
REPORTS
Market & technology
Patent Analysis
Reverse costing report
CONSULTING
Market research
Technology & Strategy
Patent Analysis
© 2013 23
Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved.
2012 - 2013 LED Reports (Latest & To Come)
Status of the
LED Industry
©
2012 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights
reserved.
LED Front-End
©
2012 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights
reserved.
LED Packaging
©
2012 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights
reserved.
UV LED
©
2012 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights
reserved.
LED Phosphor
©
2012 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights
reserved.
LED CoSim+
©
2012 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights
reserved.
OLED For
Lighting
©
2012 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights
reserved.
Sapphire
Substrates
©
2012 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights
reserved.
III - V Epitaxy
©
2012 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights
reserved.

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LED in road and street lighting 2013 Report by Yole Developpement

  • 1. © 2013 1 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved. LED In Road & Street Lighting Market Analysis, Applications, Technology Trends & Industry Status Sample 75 cours Emile Zola, F-69001 Lyon-Villeurbanne, France Tel : +33 472 83 01 80 - Fax : +33 472 83 01 83 www.yole.fr 11 rue Jean Macé, F-69600 Oullins, France Tel : +33 686 086 239 www.luxfit.eu
  • 2. © 2013 2 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved. Table Of Contents (1/4) • About The Authors Of The Report P6 • Introduction To The Report P7 • Objectives Of The Report P8 • Executive Summary P9 • Overview Of Road And Street Lighting P30 – Applications • Outdoor Lighting Applications – Introduction – Segmentation • Road And Street Lighting – Application Segmentation – Product Segmentation • From Watts to Lumens – Market Data • Market Size ($) And Volume (Units) – What Do We Count? • 2012 Data – Overview – Analysis By Region » Overview » Focus on BRIC – Analysis By Application – Actors Of The Business Chain • Route To Market In Outdoor Lighting Projects • End Users • Specifiers And Influencers – Overview – Lighting Designers • Installers • Distributors • Manufacturers – Overview – Focus On The Lighting Industry – Other Players – Supply Chain • Conventional Road And Street Lighting Supply Chain • Trends – Market Drivers • Safety, Security And Quality Of Life Aspects • Environmental Aspects • Economic Aspects • Regulatory And Standardization Aspects – Overview – Example Of EN 13201
  • 3. © 2013 3 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved. Table Of Contents (2/4) • The LED Value Proposition P68 – Conventional Luminaire vs. LED Luminaire: A New Approach To Luminaire Design • Conventional Luminaire vs. LED Luminaire – Main Design Differences – Comparison Of Cost Structure And Margin – A Major Evolution In Product Design – Managing The Light Source - Towards Modularity – An Internal Revolution Within The Company • LED Strengths And Weaknesses – LED Technology Applied To Road And Street Lighting • Drivers for LED Adoption In Road And Street Lighting • The New Key Decision-Making Criterion: ROI • Example Of Payback Calculation • Focus On Mesopic Photometry: Towards A New Evaluation of LED Performance • Focus On Melatonin Secretion • Alternative Technologies – Overview – Summary Table • Impact Of LED Adoption On The Poles And Brackets Industry • Impact Of LED Adoption On The Controls Industry • Focus On Telemanagement • Focus On Smart Grids • Lighting Design Requirements – Designing In Road And Street Lighting – Implications Of LED Lighting – LED Technology Applied To Road And Street Lighting • Operation And Maintenance Requirements • Focus On Lifetime And The « Warranty War » • Economic Requirements • Regulation And Standards: Expectations And Fulfilment • Luminaire Design Standardization: LED Replacement And Upgrade • Next Technological Steps And Consequences – LED Performance And Cost – Towards Intelligent Lighting • Focus On Glare Issue – LED Light Engine Technology • Definition & Characteristics • Optics • Modularity • Thermal Management – Overview Per Application • Highway And Road Lighting • Residential And Amenity Lighting • Tunnel Lighting • LED Supply Chain (1/2) P115 – Introduction • LED Road And Street Lighting Supply Chain – Overview – What Change From Traditional Supply Chain? • Competitive Landscape – Traditional Players And New Entrants – 2012 Market Share
  • 4. © 2013 4 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved. Table Of Contents (3/4) • LED Supply Chain (2/2) P115 – Key Players Company Profiles • Cooper • CREE • General Electric • Osram • Philips • Schréder • Toshiba • Zumtobel • Drivers for LED Technology P130 – Technology Drivers • Expected Cost of LEDs • Impact Of Technology Improvements • Service And Upgrade • Role Of The Component Technology Roadmap • Trend: A New Automotive Lighting Approach – Application Drivers • Intelligent Lighting • Less Lumen, More Current • 100% LED In Tunnels – Economic Drivers • Energy Efficiency • Impact Of Global Urbanization • New Business Models • Industry Trend: Toward Vertical Integration • Market Metrics And Trends: The LED Revolution P148 – Lumen Consumption Forecast • General Lighting – Introduction – IEA and SNL Models – Model Developed in the Report • Road and Street Lighting – Overview – Analysis Per Segment – LED Adoption For Road And Street Lighting • Adoption By Application • Adoption By Region – Luminaire Market For Road And Street Lighting (System Level) • Total Luminaire Market For Road And Street Lighting – Installed Base (2008 - 2020) - Split By Application – Installed Base (2008 - 2020) - Split By Region • LED Luminaire Market For Road And Street Lighting – Market Volume (2008 - 2020) - Split By Application – Market Volume (2008 - 2020) - Split by Region – LED Luminaire ASP (2008 - 2020) – Market Size (2008 - 2020) - Split By Application – Market Size (2008 - 2020) - Split By Region – Packaged LED Market For Road And Street Lighting (Device Level) • Market Volume (2008 - 2020) • Market Size (2008 - 2020) • General Conclusion P170
  • 5. © 2013 5 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved. Table Of Contents (4/4) • Appendix P173 – Glossary – Index Of Companies And Organizations • About Yole Développement and LED Activity P180
  • 6. © 2013 6 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved. Introduction To The Report • Within less than a decade, the LED technology has generated more turmoil in the lighting industry than anything that had happened in the previous century. All professionals agree today that what used to be a conservative, well-controlled market is undergoing a massive change, referred to as “the LED revolution”. • Therefore, it is high time to take a close look at what is happening, and why. Whilst a lot of information on the lighting industry at large is already available from various sources, each of its application segments, be it indoor or outdoor, has its own way of adopting LEDs - and this is worth documenting. • Outdoor lighting is no stranger to the revolution. As a matter of fact, it is today one of the two most dynamic segments of the general lighting market for LED adoption. • Within this, architectural lighting has been the early adopter. But the main carrier is now definitely road & street lighting. Historically the largest outdoor segment, it also offers now the highest prospects for LED development in professional exterior lighting. • Road and street lighting is also a very attractive market: EBIT levels are generally between 5 and 15%, and growth remains steady despite economic downturns. • In that context, Yole Développement and Lux Fit represent the best fit, in order to provide professionals with a tool for decision-making in this segment. The ambition of this report is nothing short of being their best ally, in the coming months, for their strategic choices in road and street lighting. • Your feedback will be instrumental in making it even more powerful in future issues.
  • 7. © 2013 7 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved. Objectives Of The Report • To provide readers with a description and evolution of the road & street lighting market, technologies, and industry playground. • To describe how LEDs are penetrating this market (drivers, strategies, players, technologies) and how they will deeply alter its structure. • To provide readers with market metrics & dynamics, industry evolution forecasts and projection from both business and technology standpoints.
  • 8. © 2013 8 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved. The Road And Street Lighting Market Overview • Road and street lighting is one of the three main segments of outdoor professional lighting. • Key figures (2012 estimations): – Revenue: $XXB (lamps + luminaires). – Volume: ~XXM units. – Installed base: ~XXM light points. – Electricity consumption: XXTWh. • The three main applications in road and street lighting correspond to six main product categories. • Each application has the following weight in value: – Highway and road: ~XX%. – Residential and amenity: ~XX%. – Tunnel: ~ XX%. • The main market players are: – End-users: Public authorities, private investors. – Specifiers: Consultants, engineers, lighting designers. – Installers: Contractors, utilities, facility managers. – Suppliers: Distributors and manufacturers. A traditional, profitable industry centered on public end-users. Highway & Road Residential Street & Amenity Tunnel Functional Road Lantern High Power Floodlight Decorative Street Lantern Heritage Lantern Post-top Decorative / Architectural Luminaire Tunnel Luminaire
  • 9. © 2013 9 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved. Route To Market In Outdoor Lighting Projects Supplier Distributor Manufacturer Installer Contractor Utility Facility Manager Specifier Consultant Architect Engineering Bureau Lighting Designer End User Local authority Highway authority Private investor StakeholdersInfluencers Role Motorists Cyclists Pedestrians Residents Visitors Lobbies Politicians Local businesses FUNDING DESIGNING SPECIFYING INSTALLING MAINTAINING DELIVERING SERVICING
  • 10. © 2013 10 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved. End Users (1/2) • Within public end-users1, different forces are at play: – A technical competence, proposing decisions on rational criteria (typically the public lighting department of a city). – A political competence, making decisions under the influence of more emotional criteria (pleasing voters being often on the hidden agenda). • Therefore the complexity of decision-making must be fully grasped and may vary greatly from one project to the other, even with the same players. • Additionally, due to the specific functioning of public administrations, decision-making may result quite lengthy due to: – Public budgeting cycles. – Mandatory council votes for investments. – Election cycles that may either hasten or delay decisions. End users are mainly public. 1. The LUCI network groups over 60 cities around urban lighting, with the aim of sharing good practice and developing knowledge in this area Street lighting inauguration in Muddebhihal, India Public lighting as a political tool The political agenda has a clear impact on public lighting. Most manufacturers report a recurring sales peak in the year prior to a local election, and a subsequent drop in the ensuing 1-2 years. Lighting is a political tool because: • It is very visible to voters. • It is a relatively easy and quick infrastructure investment. • Compared to other investments (e.g.: building a library), it requires a smaller budget.
  • 11. © 2013 11 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved. The Road And Street Lighting Industry (2/2) Leading outdoor luminaire suppliers by geographical region. Latin America: North America: Middle East and Africa: CIS countries: Asia / Pacific: Focus on China Focus on India Focus on Pacific Focus on Japan Europe: XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XXXX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX
  • 12. © 2013 12 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved. Safety, Security And Quality Of Life Aspects • Safety remains the #1 driver of the road and street lighting market. It is translated into different areas of application: – Traffic safety: A constant drive to improve visibility in order to prevent accidents. – Users safety: A need to assure that the installed equipment will not cause injuries (falling luminaires…). – Operators safety: In particular, electrical safety is a must. • Security is also a strong driver in this segment. This applies specifically to the urban installations. – Regular studies bring evidence and counter-evidence of lighting as a contributor to urban security at night… Debate continues! • Quality of life has emerged in the last decade, although it has lost some attention with the more recent upsurge of energy efficiency. – Visual comfort is expected: With higher colour rendering, adequate colour temperatures, glare control. – Landscape integration is also a clear preoccupation: initially purely functional, road and street lighting is increasingly integrating aesthetics criteria driving the segment’s expectations towards architectural outdoor lighting. Significantly, industrial designers are now involved in most luminaire and pole development projects. Pictures from GE A case for white light Even before the start of the « LED revolution », white light has emerged as a strong industry trend. It is valued for: • Its comfort – A colour temperature closer to that of daylight, as opposed to the orange glow of sodium; and better colour rendering. • Its safety – Improved peripheral vision and quicker response, evidenced by research. • Its security – Improved facial recognition, and clear preference by CCTV operators.
  • 13. © 2013 13 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved. LED Light Engine Thermal Management - Introduction • Traditionally, there are 3 level of thermal management for LED-based lighting products… However, in some cases (Chip On Board or Chip On Fixture), there can be only 1 or 2 level(s) of thermal management. • Heat is an issue in LED-based lighting systems as it can have 3 main consequences: – Decrease of lumen output in the time. – Derating of flux in the time. – Increase of failure rates. • Maximize Maintenance / Flux • Minimize Failures REQUIREMENT =
  • 14. © 2013 14 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved. Application Focus - Tunnel Lighting • Tunnel lighting offers strong opportunities for LEDs. The #1 benefit of LEDs in tunnel is lifetime, a clear advantage where maintenance generates heavy costs and disturbances (traffic interruption…). • The LED technology cannot yet fully cover all of tunnel lighting. This is owed to the various zones, requiring different luminance levels. Until now, LED solutions have been feasible for the transit and interior zones (3 & 4 on the diagram). Higher light output solutions are needed to meet the requirements of the other zones, especially the access and threshold zones. LEDs can technically address these, but are not yet economically feasible without a control system. • Tunnel lighting represents a huge opportunity for LED solutions. For example: Europe has over XXkm of road tunnels (Italy XXkm, Norway XXkm) / China has XXkm of road tunnels / The USA and Canada have XXkm of road tunnels. • China and Italy have programmes to convert road tunnels to LED lighting: – Autostrade per l’Italia has initiated in 2008 the replacement of XX luminaires in its XXkm of tunnels. Cree’s The Edge TSP was selected by Autostrade per l’Italia for their tunnel refurbishments
  • 15. © 2013 15 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved. LED Luminaire Market For Road And Street Lighting Market Volume (2008 - 2020) - Split By Application • Residential, amenity and tunnel lighting was the main driver for LED luminaire market in 2012… However, the technology should really trigger highway and road lighting applications starting from 2013. • LED luminaire market volume should boom until 2017 (XXMunits) and then stabilize until 2020 (XXMunits) due to decrease of replacement market (with the higher lifetime of LED-based system). In 2012, LED luminaire for road and street lighting represented a market volume of nearly XXMunits. Remark: In our scenario, we assume a moderate replacement rate of conventional luminaires (i.e. replacement by LED luminaires before end of life of conventional luminaires) explaining market volume stabilization by 2016 - 2017... … However, should this replacement rate get higher, market volume could continue to increase until 2019 - 2020.
  • 16. © 2013 16 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved. 75 cours Emile Zola, F-69001 Lyon-Villeurbanne, France Tel : +33 472 83 01 80 - Fax : +33 472 83 01 83 Web: http://www.yole.fr About Yole Développement and LED Activity
  • 17. © 2013 17 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved. Yole Développement Field of Research Activity • Yole Développement is a market research and strategic consulting company founded in 1998. • We are involved in the following areas: • Our research is acquired by in-house personnel via open-ended discussions and interviews. – We employ 32 full-time analysts with technical and marketing degrees – Primary research includes over 3,500 interviews per year
  • 18. © 2013 18 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved. Yole Développement Around the World We are present in Europe, North America and Asia Lyon, France - Headquarters 40% of our activity is in Europe 30% of our activity is in Asia 30% of our activity is in North America Yole Inc. Yole Japan Yole Korea Yole Taiwan Yole Paris System Plus Consulting
  • 19. © 2013 19 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved. Yole Développement Mission Statement – Knowledge-Based Company • We help our customers develop their business through specific analysis and reports, including: – Accurate market data, market segmentation and marketing analysis. – Technical evaluation, technology cost and Cost of Ownership (COO) analysis. – Patent portfolio analysis. – Freedom to operate analysis. – Strategic analysis to enhance company and business unit performance. – Strategic development support (growth opportunities identification, M&A support, investor(s) identification,etc.). – Advertising opportunities in Yole’s magazines, webinars and specific events. • Our customers get measurable, operational results from our actions!
  • 20. © 2013 20 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved. Supporting the Entire Value Chain Yole consultants provide Market Analysis, Technology Evaluation and Business Plan Assessment for customers along the entire value chain
  • 21. © 2013 21 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved. About Yole’s LED Analyst Team Dr. Philippe ROUSSEL - Business Unit Manager Dr. Philippe ROUSSEL holds a PhD in Integrated Electronics Systems from the National Institute of Applied Sciences of Lyon (INSA - France). He joined Yole Développement in 1998 and is Business Unit Manager of the Compound Semiconductors, Photovoltaic, LED and Power Electronics department. Dr. Eric VIREY - Senior Analyst Dr. Eric VIREY holds a PhD in Optoelectronics from the National Polytechnic Institute of Grenoble (INPG - France). In the last 12 years, he has held various R&D, engineering, manufacturing and marketing positions with Saint-Gobain. Most recently, he was Market Manager at Saint-Gobain Crystals, in charge of Sapphire and Optoelectronic products. Pars MUKISH - Analyst Pars MUKISH holds a master’s degree in Materials Science & Polymers and a master’s in Innovation & Technology Management (EM Lyon - France). He works at Yole Développement as Market and Technology Analyst in the fields of LED and Lighting Technologies, carrying out technical, economic and marketing analysis. Previously, he was a Marketing and Techno-Economic Analyst for several years with the CEA.
  • 22. © 2013 22 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved. Yole Activities www.yole.fr YOLE FINANCE M&A / Due Diligence / Fund raising services www.yolefinance.com MEDIA News feed / Magazines / Webcasts REPORTS Market & technology Patent Analysis Reverse costing report CONSULTING Market research Technology & Strategy Patent Analysis
  • 23. © 2013 23 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA and Lux Fit SAS. All rights reserved. 2012 - 2013 LED Reports (Latest & To Come) Status of the LED Industry © 2012 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. LED Front-End © 2012 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. LED Packaging © 2012 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. UV LED © 2012 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. LED Phosphor © 2012 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. LED CoSim+ © 2012 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. OLED For Lighting © 2012 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Sapphire Substrates © 2012 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. III - V Epitaxy © 2012 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.