Global Warming Impact on Nepal

1. FOOD SECURITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION FRAMEWORK:
ISSUES AND CHALLENGES1
Hari Dahal,2 Ph D and Doj Raj Khanal,3 Ph D
Poverty and Food Security
Poverty and food security are closely linked concepts that overlaps to a large extent. It is thought that
hunger is the result of poverty but hunger can also be a cause of poverty. Globally more than one billion
people – one sixth of the world population live on less than US $ 1 a day and they are the ones to suffer
most from chronic hunger and malnutrition (RAP, 2006; WSFP, 2009). South Asia has about 423 million
the highest number of people living in absolute poverty that makes up about 40% of world’s hungry people.
The region holds about 23 percent of world population but hardly commands 2 percent of global income
suggesting the highest concentration of poverty and food insecurity in the world (FAO/SAARC, 2008).
South Asia primarily is an agricultural region having around 52% population dependent on agriculture that
accounts for an average of 22 percent share to gross domestic production (GDP) in the region. One of the
major reasons underlying poverty and food insecurity in the region is low agricultural productivity the
implication of which is poor food availability and lack of purchasing power of people to buy adequate food.
One most important way to ensure food security therefore is to boost up agricultural productivity
increasing food supply, enhancing income and overall access to adequate food (ARD, 2003).
Poverty has been the most serious challenge in Nepal as well. Various development efforts were made to
reduce poverty in the past but no substantial achievements were attained. Poverty reduction therefore has
been a prime development agenda since the Eight Plan (1991-1997) through the Tenth Plan (2002-2007).
The Tenth Plan was specifically formulated as Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) to mainstream and
orient overall development efforts in order to break the poverty trap and economic stagnation for achieving
the goal of poverty reduction in Nepal. The poverty head count that was 41.8 percent in 1995-1996 was
found to be 30.9% in 2003-2004 as of second National Living Standard Survey (NLSS, 2004) which was a
significant achievement in reducing poverty in a short period of time (Annex Table A 1).
The major reason behind the jump in poverty reduction is attributed to increasing remittances, rapid
urbanization, and increased agricultural wages and off farm employment. At the end of the Three Year
Interim Plan (2007/08-2009/10) there is an early indication that the goal of reducing poverty level from
30.9 percent to 24 percent will be met. A progress report on Millennium Development Goal (MDG) recently
made available by the National Planning Commission says the poverty level brought down to 25 percent in
2008 and hunger population to 22.5 in 2010 from 39.9 in 2005 (TKP, 2010). Despite all the success so far
one fourth of the total population still lives in poverty most of which are concentrated in rural areas and in
the hill and mountain districts of far and mid western development regions of the country.
Food Security Situation
The World Food Summit in 1996 has defined food security as “the situation when all people at all times
have access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an
active and healthy life.” Since then several definitions have been put forward by different organizations but
1
Presented in the Second Stakeholders Workshop on NAPA in Agriculture Sector held on 23rd Feb, 2010, Kathmandu
2
Joint Secretary, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, Government of Nepal, Singh Durbar, Kathmandu
3
Senior Scientist, Animal Health Research Division, Nepal Agriculture Research Council, Kathmandu
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2. common to most definitions of food security are the elements of availability, access (physical and
economic), utilization and stability or sustainability.
Food Availability
Food availability is generally equated to domestic food production but in fact it is a function of food
production, domestic carry-over of stocks, commercial food imports and food aid. It is said that food
availability is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for achieving food security. Availability usually refers
to food supplies at the national or regional levels and indicates little to household level food availability.
Food security therefore at any one level does not guarantee food security at any other level. The
overwhelming weight age however to food availability at any level is domestic food production which is the
key factor in achieving food security in a country.
Food availability in Nepal is mainly a function of agriculture performance. Although the contribution of
agriculture to gross domestic product (GDP) has been declining over time it is still the largest economic
sector employing 65 percent of economically active population and sharing 32.4 percent in the GDP (ES,
2009). Nepal was food secured and was a net food exporter until the early 1980s. From 1990s the
population growth outstripped cereals production growth and the country over the past two decades has
been experiencing sporadic food shortage at the national level. The contributory factors in food deficit are
severe weather conditions like drought, flood, landslides, hailstorm etc., but the magnitude of food deficit
usually is small less than one percent of the total food requirement but in some years it was higher than
one percent (Table 1).
(a) Food Grain Production
The major food grains in Nepal are Paddy, Maize, Wheat, Millet and Barley together accounting for 77 per
cent of cultivated area coverage in 2008/09. Among the cereals paddy covers about 46 percent of the total
cultivated area producing around 56 percent of total cereal outputs followed by Maize (24%), Wheat (17%),
Millet (3.61%), and Barley (0.29%). Food grain production of the past ten years (1999/2000—2008/09)
shows a continuous positive growth trend except in two years (2005/06 to 2006/07). The growth trend
however is slow and nearly stagnated except a strong jump in the following years reaching to a record level
of cereal production of 8114131 mt in 2008-09 (Annex Table A 2). Looking at the food availability against
the food requirement based on the per capita calorie intake for the past ten years the country seems to be
fairly food surplus in seven out of ten years (Table 1).
Table 1: Edible Cereal Production and Balance (MT)
Year Total Edible Total Requirement Balance Balance %
Production
1999/00 4451939 4383443 68496 1.56
2000/01 4513179 4424192 88987 2.01
2001/02 4543049 4463027 80022 1.79
2002/03 4653385 4619962 33423 0.72
2003/04 4884371 4671344 213027 4.56
2004/05 4942553 4779710 162843 3.60
2005/06 4869440 4890993 -21553 -0.44
2006/07 4815284 4995194 -179910 -3.60
2007/08 5195211 5172844 22367 0.43
2008/09 5160400 5293316 -132916 -2.51
Source: Food Balance Sheet, MOAC, 2009
The three year’s food shortage (from 0.44 to 3.6 percent of the total requirement) is mainly attributed to
the vagaries of weather conditions as year by year climatic variability is one of the major causes of non-
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3. stability of crop yields and food production in the country. In 2008-09 the total food grain deficit was
132916 mt affecting 695895 people across the country. The food availability situation varies greatly across
the regions and districts. On regional basis the most deficit is mountain region (19%) followed by Hill (14%)
whereas Terai is surplus by 11 percent (Table 2).
Table 2: Estimated Food Availability (MT) Situation (2008/09)
Ecological Net Edible Requirement Balance Balance % SSR (%) PCEA (kg)
Region Production
Mountain 296510 365701 -69191 -18.92% 81 155
Hill 2080755 2426366 -345611 -14% 86 172
Terai 2783135 2501249 281888 11.26% 111 201
Nepal 5160400 5293316 -132914 -2.51% 97 186
Source: SINA, MOAC, 2009; SSR= Self Sufficiency Ratio (Percent), PCEA= Per Capita Edible Availability
(b) District Cereals Balance
The most food surplus district being Syangja, a mid hill district having 182 percent self sufficient ratio and
366 kilograms of per capita edible grain availability followed by Jhapa with 177 food self sufficiency ratio
and 320 kg of per capita edible availability. Other important surplus hill districts are Dhankuta (SSR 176),
Lamjung (SSR 154), Khotang (SSR 154) and all three districts of eastern mountains- Sankhuwashava (SSR
141), Solukhumbu (SSR 136), and Taplejung (SSR 125). Most of the Terai districts are food surplus district
but Sunsari (SSR 80), Siraha (SSR 93), Dhanusha (SSR 99), Mahottari (SSR 72), Sarlahi (SSR 75),
Rautahat (SSR 77) and Kailali (SSR 94) were food deficit in the fiscal year 2008-09.
Most food insecured districts are those of hill and mountain districts of mid western and far western
development regions. Humla of Karnali zone is the most serious and chronic food deficit district with the
least of self sufficiency ratio (SSR 17) and just 32 kg of per capita edible food grain availability through
local production. Other food deficit districts in the regions in ascending order of self sufficiency are Bajura
(SSR 32), Achham (SSR 37), Baitadi (SSR 37), Kalikot (SSR 37), Bajhang (SSR 40), Mugu (SSR 42), Doti
(SSR 44), Rolpa (SSR 55), Darchula (SSR 57), Dadeldhura (SSR 61), Pyuthan (SSR 64), Jumla (SSR 66)
and Dolpa (SSR 71). As the self sufficiency ratio (SSR) is just an indicative of food grain production in
relation to population in the district it does not give much idea on food security. Food security is also a
function of income level, transport connectivity and market access the low level of SSR not necessarily tells
the poor situation of food security in the districts. That is why food deficit districts of Terai, hills and
Kathmandu valley having low level of SSR are not food insecured. Although there are 40 districts including
Kathmandu, Bhaktapur and Lalitpur that are considered to be food deficit only those in far and mid
western hill and mountain districts (around 17 districts) are food insecure. Among hill and mountain
districts more insecured are those having no road connectivity and market access. As a whole the country’s
SSR is 97 percent suggesting 5 kg per capita short fall of grain for the fiscal year 2008/09 (Table 2).
(c) Food Surplus with Potato
In food security balance sheet five food crops namely rice, maize, wheat, millet and barley are included.
Other important crops and commodities like livestock products, poultry, fish, vegetables, fruits, buckwheat,
beans, oat, tubers (yam, taro, sweet potato etc), and potato are not included in the food balance sheet.
These crops and commodities have been increasingly contributing to food and nutrition security as they
are supplying calorie, nutrients and cash income to people but they are not counted in food security
calculations. Potato for example is mostly used as vegetable in Terai and urban areas but it is consumed as
staple food in the hill and mountain districts. In 2008-2009 the total production of potato in the country
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4. was 2083283 mt which if included in food balance sheet, the average food availability per capita per year
would be 248 kg which is much higher than the national requirement of 191 kg. With the addition of
potato alone the country would be surplus by 1594040 mt and there is no sign of food shortage in the
country at least at the national level. The food availability surprisingly seems highest in the mountains with
312 kilogram per capita per year (Table A 3).
(d) Food Trade and Aid
Given the long and porous border between Nepal and India there has always been formal and informal
trade of agricultural goods including food grains across the border. There are cases of food grain import
from India mostly milled rice during period of food grain shortages. The documented statistics shows that
there have been annual imports of rice from India but the quantity is not significant (Table 3).
Table 3: Milled Rice Import from India
Fiscal Year Import (NRs 000) Quantity (MT)*
1999/00 2705500 103066
2002/03 710200 29628
2003/04 515900 20003
2004/05 412700 16416
2005/06 2157000 66451
2006/07 1505000 47717
2007/08 1614200 47323
Source: SINA 2008/09, MOAC
*Money value calculation to quantity based on yearly average market prices.
Apart from the trade, the government of Japan has been providing food aid to Nepal through the Nepal
Food Corporation in various amounts over time. The quantity of this aid for the fiscal year 2009/10 is set
at 9600 MT of rice under K2R program. The World Food Program (WFP) has also been making
contribution to food grain availability through its safety net programs in various quantities.
Access to Food
Food access is ensured when households and all individuals within those households have adequate
resources to obtain appropriate foods for a nutritious diet. Access to adequate food depends upon income
available to household and food prices. It also depends on land holding patterns, income distribution and
employment opportunities. Access to food may also depend on infrastructures, transport, connectivity and
food policy adopted by the government. It is therefore said that food insecurity is more of distribution issue
than a production problem. Food insecurity has its root to poverty that leads to poor health, low
productivity, low income, food shortage and hunger. Although the per capita gross domestic production has
been increased to US $ 470 in 2007-08 from US $ 390 a year ago the poor and vulnerable sections of
society have difficulty to access adequate food in both remote districts as well as urban centers (ES,
2007/08).
As the private sector’s involvement in food grain supply is limited to accessible areas and urban centers,
Nepal Food Corporation under the Ministry of Commerce and Supply has been taking responsibility to
supply food grain to the food deficit remote districts. But the capacity of NFC to supply food grain to the
remote districts is limited by high transportation costs, inadequate fund to purchase food grains and
lengthy procurement rules. The annual supply of food grains of NFC has declined in general from its peak
of 72747 MT in 1993-94 to as low as 14022 MT in 2004-05 (CPP, 2007). The food demand however has
been getting high in remote districts in the recent years probably due to low food grain production locally,
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5. food habit change to rice and increasing income levels from remittances. NFC’s target of food distribution
for the fiscal year 2010/11 is set at 28800 MT while it has a buffer stock of 15000 MT and 4000 MT in its
SAARC Food Bank. Apart from the distributory mechanism, in order to enhance the poor and vulnerable
group’s access to food government has set a policy of giving employment for each household in food
insecure districts for a period of 100 days in a year (TYIP, 2007).
Food Utilization
Food utilization is commonly understood as the nutritional status of an individual. It is also the proper
biological use of food with sufficient energy and nutrient intake by individuals having good feeding
practices, food preparation and dietary diversity. Effective food utilization also takes into account of the
knowledge of food processing, storage, safety and health care. This aspect of food security is given less
importance since adequacy of food as calorie intake is taken guarantee of both food and nutrition security.
The gap also exist because of that food utilization is having less to do with agriculture and food production
in most developing countries.
Table 4: Food & Nutrition Indicators
Food Items (kg) Target Achievement
Food availability (per person/yr) 286 280
Vegetables 79 80
Fruits 17.89 21.63
Milk (Liter) 50.85 51
Meat 9.94 8.6
Fish 1.87 1.87
Sugar 9.0 9.44
Source: TYIP, 2007
In Nepal average food supply in terms of calorie per person per day was 2430 Kcal and the proportion of
undernourished population was 16 percent during 2004-2006 (FAO, 2009). The mean food grains
availability including potato at the end of the Tenth Plan (2002-2007) was 280 kg per capita per year. The
per capita availability of some of the food items as of the Tenth Plan is given in Table 4.
Except food grains and meat production all other targets were achieved but due to widespread poverty the
incidence of malnutrition especially among the children is still high. Ecologically, stunting is more common
in the hills and mountains while underweight and wasting are more common in Terai.
Stability and Vulnerability
Stability refers to the temporal dimension of food security. As the economy of Nepal is predominated by
agriculture the performances of which in turn dependent on weather and climate factors. Climate induced
instability in agricultural production is considered to be the main source of food insecurity although
political upheavals have also affected food production and distribution significantly during the last one half
decade. The major determinant of agricultural growth is rainfall which fluctuates year to year and
according to which the growth rate of agricultural gross domestic production (AGDP) has also been
affected.
Natural disasters are also the major causes of instability in agriculture in which substantial land area, crops,
livestock and human losses are incurred every year. The most vulnerable crops that are affected by flood,
landslide and drought is paddy, maize and millet of which paddy crop is affected the most. In 2008-09, the
total cropped area affected by natural disasters was 93700 hectares in which paddy area was 92000 ha-
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6. about 6 percent of total paddy area (ABPSD, 2009). The economic implication of such losses has been
reflected in the reduced levels of agricultural production, low income and high vulnerability of food supply
(Dahal, 2005). Climate change impact, deforestation, and degradation and soil fertility decline are also
causing instability in agricultural production and productivity at various magnitudes (CPP, 2007).
Vulnerable to food insecurity are those who are poor, marginalized, tribal, ethnic group and lower caste
groups. They are least able to cope with natural disasters and have little knowledge, information and skills
to reduce their risks (Oxfam, 2009). By tradition, within households it is women who are vulnerable to food
and nutrition insecurity. Women’s role in food production is very high but they are the ones to eat last and
the least amount of food where as their nutritional requirement is higher due to productive and
reproductive roles (ARD, 2003). The implications of food insecure and malnourished women are high
maternal and infant mortality and low birth weight new born.
Issues and Challenges
1. Low Productivity and Limitation to Arable Land
Low and stagnant productivity of agricultural crops especially that of cereal is a major concern for food
security in Nepal. Poor agricultural growth is attributed to low inputs use per unit area, poor access to loan
and irrigation facility, poor extension and research services, inadequate infrastructure and lack of effective
policy support. There is no scope of expanding cultivable land which has even been declining in the face of
booming urbanization, industrialization and high population growth. The ever growing population has
been exerting tremendous pressure on land leading to fragmentation, ecological degradation and declining
land productivity.
There has been a trend to substitute cereal crops with high value cash crops leading to loss of area to food
crops, the diversion to non food crops are mainly due to changing consumption pattern. There has also
been a shift in national priorities from food self sufficiency to food self reliance through increased income
(ICIMOD, 2008). While this has contributed to food security the low level of food stock in the international
market and export ban on food imposed by food exporting countries results into a loss of overall food
security in the country. It is therefore necessary to pursue a two pronged approach- self sufficiency in food
by producing more food locally in the best way possible and improving purchasing capacity of people by
enhancing income through employment, business and growing high value cash crops as self reliance
measure.
2. Food Distribution and Increased Dependency
In Nepal, government’s food safety net has been taken care by the Nepal Food Corporation which is
responsible for the supply of food grains to the food deficit districts. Its main objectives are to provide food
to consumers at fair prices, to intervene the food grain market to stabilize prices, manage food aid from
donor agencies and hold food stock for emergency. The number of districts NFC supplying food grains
were 38 previously but it is 23 now and NFC has plan to cut down the number of districts gradually as its
role gets smaller when remote inaccessible districts are linked with road networks. The quantity of food
distribution made by Nepal Food Corporation for the last five years has been growing steadily by about 20
per cent each year (Table 5).
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7. Table 5: Food Grain Distribution by Nepal Food Corporation
Fiscal Year Allocated Ceiling (MT) Sale Quantity (MT)
2005/2006 6520 5882.14
2006/2007 8032 7337
2007/2008 9700 9240.8
2008/2009 11896 12141.83
2009/2010 18500 15296.92
Source: Nepal Food Corporation, 2010
Although NFC has been playing a key role in maintaining food security in remote hill and mountain
districts, the food distribution is not well targeted. It appears that most food grains distribution by NFC
went to the government employees and well off consumers in the districts headquarters including
Kathmandu Valley. The heavily subsidized food grain distribution has also depressed grain market prices
for the local farmers and acted as disincentive for higher food production. Another implication of food
distribution is creating increasingly dependency on rice which has limited production in the country. In the
recent years food is equated to rice as all national and international food distributing agencies have been
distributing mainly milled rice. As subsidized rice is cheaper than other local foods, consumers in the
remote districts where paddy is not produced are getting habit of increased rice consumption. It has three
implications, Firstly it erodes the concept of crop diversification and multiple cropping which is the key to
climate change adaptation and stability in food production and supply. Secondly, people tend to avoid the
cultivation of local land races, secondary crops and tubers thus having negative effects on local agricultural
biodiversity. The loss of agro biodiversity means grave threat to long term food security in the remote hill
and mountain districts. This also means total abandonment of crop cultivation in rainfed and dry areas.
Lastly but not the least, the increased consumption of only rice means making already bad situation worse
in nutritional intake as food and dietary diversity is the main source of reducing malnutrition and
undernourishment.
Having no effective government institutional mechanism to monitor food distribution it is not known if
food is received by the hungry and vulnerable groups and targeted population in the regions. Even less is
known about the quality of food distributed and also the proportion of food grain used to local alcohol
production and feeding poultry and livestock.
3. Declining Investment on Agriculture
Public expenditure on agriculture has been gradually declined since 1990 when the government started
pursuing liberal economic system in the country. Following the structural adjustment program, in 1995/96
the government discontinued subsidies in fertilizers and irrigation (particularly in deep tube well and
shallow tube well) as of the condition laid down by the Second Agriculture Program Loan (SAPL) from the
Asian Development Bank. The consequences of which are reduced use of chemical fertilizers and almost
non expansion of deep and shallow tube well acreage in Terai thus negatively affecting food production
and productivity.
Agriculture remained no longer a priority sector. The national budget allocation to the Ministry of
Agriculture and Cooperatives went down to one of the lowest levels, 2.45 percent in 2006/07 and 2.47
percent in 2007/08. The implication of which are poor service delivery of agricultural extension and severe
constraints in research and technology generation. Between research and extension, research suffered
more than extension as it is included under second priority in medium term expenditure framework.
Compared to national outlay in 2003/04 the NARC’s budget allocation was 0.30 percent which is grossly
insufficient to produce any significant research and development outputs.
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8. The declining trend of global funding on agriculture and rural development has also been reflected in
country program. In 1980, the official development assistance (ODA) for agriculture was 17 percent which
went down to 3.8 percent in 2006 (WSFS, 2009). This trend should be reversed in the wake of global food
crisis and in situation when global food production is needed to be 70 percent higher than today by the
year 2050.
4. Trade and Market Access
After trade liberalization under WTO and other regional agreements in South Asia the impact of
agricultural trade on food security has received increasing attention. Apart from filling the gap between
domestic production and consumption needs trade can also reduce supply variability induced from natural
disasters and climate change factors (FAO/SAARC, 2008). Trade policy however was not considered an
explicit instrument in achieving food security in the past in Nepal (CPP, 2007). Agricultural trade would
have greater role to play in future in food security particularly in a situation of food production not keeping
pace to high population growth (2.25%), low productivity and increased threat of climate change impacts
on agriculture.
Nepal is considered one of the most open trade regimes in South Asia with lowest tariff rate and no
explicit export subsidies and no quantitative restrictions. The overall agricultural tariff structure is well
below the WTO’s bound rate under agreement on agriculture (Mittal & Sethi, 2009). India is the major
trading partner, nearly one third of export takes place to India. But due to landlocked position and porous
border with India, Nepal’s capacity to pursue an independent trade policy has always been constrained
(Pandey, 2009). Nepal was also a member of regional trade agreements like South Asian Preferential Trade
Agreement (SAPTA), and now South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA), and Bay of Bengal Initiatives for
Multi-Sectoral Technical & Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC). Apart from these, Nepal has made bilateral
trade agreements with 17 countries & trade transactions with more than 150 countries (CPP, 2007). The
objectives of these trade agreements are to promote trade and reducing trade imbalance through strong
economic cooperation and integration.
Looking at the volume of trade with India and in SAARC region, Nepal should strive for harmonization of
quality standards for food, animals and plant products and recognition of each other’s sanitary and
phytosanitary certification (Mittal & Sethi, 2009). Nepal should also take initiative to get its laboratory
accreditation, and removal of non-tariff barriers including lifting of ban on import-export of food
commodities that may have direct implication to the regional food security.
5. Policy Framework on Food Security
In 1995, the government of Nepal approved a 20 years Agriculture Perspective Plan that was implemented
through the Ninth Plan Period (1997-2002) to put agricultural sector into a fast growth track that would
bring rural prosperity and rapid decline in poverty (APP, 1995). The APP’s broad strategy was to achieve
economic growth and poverty reduction objective through accelerated agricultural growth but APP was
never really implemented (FAO/SARRC, 2008). A study report concluded that the suboptimal performance
of APP as the result of inadequate investment, problem in concept and design and due to organizational
weakness (APPSR, 2007). Nepal’s agricultural policy nevertheless has been heavily guided by APP though it
needs reviewing and fine-tuning.
The APP has insufficient mention of food security which does not address the complexity of its various
dimensions as they have appeared in recent times. In the Tenth Plan (2002-2007) there is a mention of
supporting food nutrition security through raising agricultural production and productivity, and increasing
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9. incomes and reducing poverty. But there was no specific strategy and program to address food and
nutrition security which is primarily equated to food production and making food available. The National
Agricultural Policy (2004) added various provisions for marginal and vulnerable groups having less than
half hectare of land in a way to improve food security. It has also made stipulation of making food storage
and mobilization network in local participatory basis and developing food and nutrition safety nets for poor
and marginal farmers.
The interim constitution (2006-2007) has recognized food sovereignty as the fundamental human right
which is consequently reflected in the Three Years Interim Plan (2007-2010) as food security for all
citizens. This is the first time any periodic plan has dedicated a separate section on the issue of food
security. Under TYIP various aspects of food and nutritional security are to be strengthened through proper
conservation and management of natural resources together with sustainable agricultural production,
equitable distribution, increased employment opportunities, increased quality of food products and reduced
vulnerability of disadvantaged population. Of late, the government has established the National Food
Security Steering Committee under the National Planning Commission and a Food Security Working
Group (FSWG) in the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives. This is not enough and there is still a need
to take more steps by the government in creating legal and institutional framework to realize food security
and people’s right to food in the country.
6. Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations
Nepal is known to be highly disaster prone and sensitive to the consequences of climate change. Although
no discernible long term change in climate has been observed, a study by the Department of Hydrology
and Meteorology revealed that the average temperature in Nepal is increasing at a rate of approximately
0.06 degree centigrade per year (Shrestha et al, 1999; CCNP, 2009). The temperature differences are most
pronounced during winter season and least after the summer monsoon begins (Shrestha et al, 2000).
Consistent with the global trend, the temperature is increasing at a faster rate in the higher elevations
compared to the lower elevations. Notably the rate of warming is greater in the western half of the country
compared to the eastern half. Unlike temperature trends no evidence of change in aggregate precipitation
has been noted though studies have shown an increased variability and intensity of rainfall in some regions
of the country. Significantly glacial retreat as well as aerial expansion of glacial lakes in the high mountain
region has also been documented in recent decades and there is a higher likelihood that such change is
related to rising temperature (Agrawal et al, 2003). Glacial retreat not only contributes to the variability in
river and stream flows but also can be an additional source of risk to agriculture.
Purdue University has shown that global warming could delay the start of the summer monsoon by five to
fifteen days within the next century and substantially reduce rainfall in South Asia. Global warming is likely
to lead an eastward shift of monsoon circulation which could lead more rainfall over Bangladesh, Indian
Ocean and Myanmar and less over Pakistan, India and Nepal. Temperature rise will negatively impact rice
and wheat yields in Terai and tropical part where these crops are already being grown close to their
temperature tolerance threshold. Indirect impact of rise in temperature will be in water availability, change
in soil moisture and the incidence of pest and disease outbreak. It is clear that Nepal’s struggle for food
security would further intensified with climate change. Unless new measures are taken to help farmers
adapt to changing climate the situation will be even more severe. Understanding the potential impact of
climate change on agriculture in Nepal is critical for two reasons. First, the existing system of food
production is highly climate sensitive because of its low level of capital and technology. Second, agriculture
is the main source of livelihood for majority of the population. If agricultural production is adversely
affected by climate change the livelihoods of even greater number of people will be at risk.
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10. Adaptation Framework
Adaptation refers to the adjustments in human and natural systems to respond to actual or expected
climate change impacts. It is also policies, practices and strategies to moderate damage or realizing
opportunities associated with climate change variability and extremes (FAO, internet 2009; EC, 2008). Two
major kinds of adaptation are autonomous and planned adaptation. Autonomous adaptation is an
automatic and gradual inbuilt capacity to adjust to climate change whereas planned adaptations are
intended and conscious policy and strategic responses aimed at altering the adaptive capacity of the system
or facilitating specific adaptations. There are ranges of adaptive measure – technological, managerial and
policy or political measures. Any adaptive measures aim to ensure people’s livelihoods and economy that
are resilient to the climate change. It is a process and not a one-shot activity. Adaptation framework must
include some key elements of process like assessment of climate risks, identifying adaptation options and
prioritizing specific adaptation responses, implementation, and monitoring and evaluation to see that
changes are occurring and actions taken are effective.
In view of the diverse climate conditions and associated impacts on agriculture, adaptation planning
cannot be done on the basis of global knowledge alone (EC, 2008). It is therefore important to conduct
local research to generate knowledge of climate change risks and identifying cost-effective mitigation and
adaptation options. Agricultural research and development has to play a key role in developing adaptive
technology and diffusion of innovations under climate change context. Extension services are also expected
to be more effective in promoting farmers adaptation practices, knowledge and capacity building to be able
to sustain agriculture and food security at household and regional levels. Apart from research the range of
measures that are used to address the climate change adaptations are diverse that may include policy,
technological and management responses. The following are some of the examples of adaptation measures
that can be applicable to Nepalese agricultural sector.
Table 6: Climate Change Adaptation Framework for Food Security
Sector/ Subsector Strategy Adaptation Measures
A. Food Availability
Crop Production Management Food Self Sufficiency • Develop & select tolerant crop varieties and cultivars
through adaptive research for drought, heat and
flood situation
• Use more disease and pest tolerant varieties
• Promote local and indigenous crop cultivars
• Develop early maturing varieties
• Adjust sowing dates based on rainfall patterns
• Alter the use of fertilizer/pesticide
• Invest on resource centers
• Ensure good quality seeds and planting materials
• Implement food production & self reliance program
in food deficit remote districts
Agricultural Infrastructure Improved Efficiency • Develop Agricultural Road
• Improve & rehabilitate existing irrigation facility
• Promote rainwater harvest and micro irrigation
systems in hill and mountain districts
• Develop market structure, collection centers and
information system
• Encourage gravity rope way to reduce transport cost
• Improve post harvest technology to reduce losses
Redesign Cropping System Enhancing • Encourage secondary, indigenous crops, tubers and
Sustainability beans in the upland and dry areas
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11. • Encourage horticultural crops, agro forestry, herbs
and NTFP
• Encourage nitrogen fixing and legume crops
• Promote the use of organic fertilizer, manure bio
pesticide
• Implement resource conservation technology
• Crop diversification, multiple cropping and catch
crops
• Practice crop rotation and conserve agro- biodiversity
• Integrated nutrient management and soil fertility
improvement
Livestock Production and Improve Production • Improve feeding practices
Management • Breed livestock for greater tolerance and productivity
• Plant, suitable fodder and grass species
• Improve pasture and grazing management
• Provide better management and veterinary services
• Better surveillance and control of trans-boundary
pest and diseases
• Livestock product diversification
B.Food Access (Physical & Enhance local food • Invest on high value crops and commodities
Economic Access to Food) production and • Establish community seed and food bank
income • Develop market networks
• Remove market and trade barriers
• Create local employments for food unsecured
households
• Price control and subsidized food for poor and
vulnerable
• Implement cash for work program
• Food for food production program
• Targeted food distribution as emergency aid
• Implement food preparation and dietary diversity
program
• Include varieties in food distribution and
consumption
• Encourage kitchen gardening and vegetable intake
C. Food Utilization Achieving Nutritional • Create awareness on balance and nutritious food,
Security sanitation practices and health care
D. Stability and Sustainability Promoting stability in • Establish and strengthened early warning system
food production, • Launch crop and livestock insurance
supply and livelihood • Incorporate disaster risk management program and
recovery emergency preparedness in agriculture
• Establish and enlarge agriculture disaster relief and
recovery fund within the ministry (MOAC)
• Improve the capacity of Nepal Food Corporation
• Establish DRM unit in MOAC
• Assess vulnerability and produce maps
E. Policy Support on Food Building environment • Develop a comprehensive National Food Security
Security for achieving food Plan
security • Establish Food Security Division and Climate Change
Unit in the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives
• Improve NARC’s capacity to generate knowledge and
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12. technology under climate change
• Promulgate National Food Security Act and Land
Use Act
• Bring out food policy and biotechnology policy in
relation to bio-security, LMO and GMO food
• Implement and Enforce Voluntary Guidelines to
support the progressive realization of the right to
adequate food in the context of national food
security (Adopted by the 127th Session of FAO
Council, 2004)
References
ABPSD, 2009: Bimonthly Crop and Livestock Poultry Situation Report, Agri – business promotion and
Statistics Division, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, Gov of Nepal,
Kathmandu.
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13. Agrawala S, V Raksakulthi, M Van Aalst, P Larsen, J Smith, J Reynolds, 2003: Development and Climate
Change in Nepal: Focus in Water Resource and Hydropower.
COM/ENV/EPOC/DCD/DAC1/FINAL, OECD Paris.
APP, 1995: Agriculture Perspective Plan, Main document, APROSC and John Mellor Associate Inc.,
Kathmandu.
APPSR, 2007: Agriculture Perspective Plan Status Report, APP support program, MOAC, Kathmandu
ARD, 2003: Human Development in South Asia 2002, Agriculture and Rural Development, Mahbub ul Haq
Human Development Center, Oxford University Press, Karachi, Pakistan.
CCNP, 2009: Climate Change National Policy (Draft), Ministry of Environment, Government of Nepal,
Kathmandu.
CPP, 2007: Special Program on Regional Food Security, Country Position Paper, National Technical
Dahal H, 2005: Risks in Agriculture and their Management Strategies in Nepal. In Risk in Agriculture and
their Coping Strategies in SAARC countries. SAIC, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
EC, 2008: Fact Sheet, Climate Change: The Challenges for Agriculture. European Commission Agriculture
and Rural Development, Brussels.
ES, 2007/08: Economic Survey, Ministry of Finance, Government of Nepal, Singh Durbar, Kathmandu.
FAO, 2009: The State of Food Insecurity in the World, technical Annex, Table 1, FAO Rome.
FAO, internet resource, 2009 (www.fao.org/climatechange/49371/en)
FAO/SAARC, 2008: Final Report – Regional Strategies and Program for Food Security in SAARC Member
States. FAO Regional Office for Asia and Pacific Bangkok, SAARC Secretariat,
Kathmandu.
ICIMOD, 2008: Food Security in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region, ICIMOD Position paper, Kathmandu.
Mittal S and D Sethi, 2009: Food Security in South Asia: Issues and Opportunities, working paper no 240.
Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (Internet Source).
MOAC, 2009: Estimated Food Balance Sheet, Ministry of Agriculture & Cooperatives, Kathmandu.
Oxfam, 2009: Climate Change, Poverty and Adaptation in Nepal, Country Program Office, Jawalakhel,
Lalitpur.
Pandey P R, 2009: Trade Policy as an Instrument to Ensure Food Security: A case of Nepal, ESCAP,
Bangkok (Internet Source).
RAP, 2006: Roles of Agriculture Project, Poverty Alleviation and Food Security, FAO (Internet Source)
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14. Shrestha A B, CP Wake, P A Mayewski & J E Dibb; 1999: Maximum temperature trends in the Himalaya
and its Vicinity: An analysis based on the temperature record from Nepal for the
period 1971-1994. Journal of climate, 12: 2775-2789.
Shrestha M L, 2000: International Variation of Summer Monsoon Rainfall over Nepal and its relation to
Southern Oscillation Index. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physic, 75:21-28
SINA, 2009: Statistical Information on Nepalese Agriculture, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives,
Singh Durbar, Kathmandu
TKP, 2010: The Kathmandu Post daily, February 15, 2010, Kantipur Publication, Kathmandu.
TYIP, 2007: Three Years Interim Plan, National Planning Commission, GON, Kathmandu.
WSFS, 2009: World Summit on Food Security, Feeding the World, Eradicating Hunger, November 16-18,
2009, Rome (WSFS 2009/INF/2).
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15. Annex
Table A 1: Poverty Situation in Nepal
Region 1995/96 (%) 2003/04 (%)
Urban 21.6 9.6
Rural 43.3 34.6
Nepal 41.8 30.9
Mountain 57.0 32.6
Hills 40.7 34.5
Terai 40.3 27.6
Source: NLSS I & II, CBS, 2004
Table A 2: Cereal Grains Production
Fiscal Year Paddy Maize Wheat Millet Barley Total
1999/2000 4030100 1445150 1183530 295380 30817 6985277
2000/2001 4216465 1484112 1157865 282852 30488 7171782
2001/2002 4164687 1510770 1258045 282570 30790 7246862
2002/2003 4132500 1569140 1344192 282860 31711 7360403
2003/2004 4455722 1590097 1387191 283378 28151 7744539
2004/2005 4289827 1716042 1442442 289838 29341 7767490
2005/2006 4209279 1734417 1394126 290936 27786 7656544
2006/2007 3680838 1819925 1515139 284813 28293 7329008
2007/2008 4299246 1878648 1572065 291098 28082 8069139
2008/2009 4523693 1930669 1343862 292683 23224 8114131
(55.67) (23.79) (16.56) (3.61) (0.29) (100)
Source: MOAC, 2009; Figures in parentheses are percentage
Table A 3: Estimated Food Security Situation (MT) with the addition of Potato
Region Proj Popn Rice Maize Millet Wheat Barley Potato Net Requirem Balance SSR Edible
Edible ent (%) (Kg)
Prod
Mountain 1914652 69546 141210 46302 36726 2730 300866 597378 365701 231677 163 312
Hill 12071464 580694 1041146 185178 270379 3360 642591 2723346 2426366 296980 112 226
Terai 13819051 1810964 201291 8550 762062 269 783495 3566631 2501249 1065383 143 258
Nepal 27805166 2461204 1383647 240030 1069167 6358 1726951 6887357 5293316 1594040 130 248
Source: Agribusiness promotion and Statistics Division, MOAC, 2008/09
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