Monthly trend survey into what shippers and carriers think will happen in the short term related to the supply chain. Topics include current issues, expected changes in fuel price, transport rates, cost of carriers, transport volumes and capacity. Since this regular survey is taken by hundreds of shippers and carriers present on all continents, it provides a truly global coverage. The major issues identified are going to be addressed in further surveys and analyzed in white papers.

1. What do
shippers and carriers
think?
Results of the monthly trend survey
for December 2011
© Zsolt Kosinszky

2. Summary for Dec 2011 (vs Nov 2011)
Shippers expect Carriers
-5% to +5% volumes up to 5+% increase
40% expect no change transport capacity 46% expect less
no change transport rates up to 5% increase
2.10% rise diesel prices 5.65% rise
up to 5% increase cost for carriers up to 5% increase
© Zsolt Kosinszky

3. Survey methodology and base data
50%
Participants
• anonymous survey
40%
40% 34%
30% 26%
• between November 15-20, 2011 20%
10%
• 535 respondents with activities on all 0%
shipper carrier other
continents
• participants: buyers (shippers) and 80%
70%
72%
Area of activity
60%
sellers (carriers) of transport services 50%
40%
46% 42%
36%
30%
30%
and other supply chain players 20%
10%
0%
(e.g. infrastructure providers, Europe The Asia Africa Australia
Americas and
consultants, media, education) Oceania
• about 54% of respondents are high 80% 75%
Decision makers
60%
level decision makers 40%
39% 41%
• base data: November 2011 20%
0%
shipper carrier other
© Zsolt Kosinszky

4. Featured survey: transport tendering
Regularity
Shippers: 30% use only spot rates, 25% tender every 2 years
Carriers: 36% tender yearly, 18-18% monthly or quarterly
Tools used
Shippers: 53% use spreadsheets, 37% web based tools
Carriers: 69% use spreadsheets, 23% web based tools
Number of carriers invited on average
Shippers: 8 to spot tenders, 57 to long term tenders
Carriers: 24 to spot tenders, 50 to long term tenders
© Zsolt Kosinszky

5. Challenge Problem
Current Find the right Rates not competitive, insufficient quality of
supply carriers (spot
and long term)
service, long tendering process, complicated
spot sourcing
chain
challenges Operational
efficiency
Processes not in place or not working, long
lead times, suboptimal and costly
operations, low visibility
(information), decreasing service level, high
Shippers inventory
Capacity Insufficient load and manufacturing
60% 55% management optimization, backup providers
50%
50% 45% 45% unknown, jammed supply chain
40%
30%
20% Getting greener Most solutions are costly/take long time to
10% while saving put in place and/or take effect
0%
© Zsolt Kosinszky

6. Challenge Problem
Current Operational efficiency Highly manual
supply processes, insufficient
visibility, short term actions
chain Find new customers Huge competition, extremely
challenges resource intensive structures
Find the right subcontractors Highly resource intensive
(spot and long term) processes, outdated
Carriers applications (freight
exchange/loadboard)
Capacity management Insufficient network
80%
70%
69% optimization, insufficient
60%
46%
visibility, short term
50%
40%
38% 38% 38% view, collaboration issues
30%
20%
10% Financing/payment Complex rating
0%
systems, numerous extra cost
types, credit issues, insufficient
collaboration
© Zsolt Kosinszky

7. Root causes of supply chain problems
• most of the major issues (finding the right carrier, improving
operational efficiency, capacity management and finding new
customers) are due to insufficient knowledge/choices and
information in the supply chain
• getting greener while saving costs is only possible if an instant
solution is found
• financing is partly problematic due to credit issues, partly there is
an underlying concern: only more equipment is the way forward?
• payment issues need a legal framework
The above issues will be focused on in upcoming surveys and white
papers.
© Zsolt Kosinszky

8. Expected diesel price in Dec 2011
6.00% 5.65%
4.00% 3.77%
5.00% What they expect 3.50%
What they think
4.00%
3.00% the market expects
2.50%
2.05% 2.13%
3.00% 2.72%
2.00%
2.10%
2.00% 1.50%
1.43%
1.00%
1%
1.00%
0.50%
0.00% 0.00%
shippers carriers others all shippers carriers others all
While shippers (2.10%) believe that the market (2.72%) expects a somewhat lower price than
them (2.05%), carriers (5.65%) think that the market (2.72%) expects a significantly lower
price than them (3.77%).
The base price is the October 2011 average diesel fuel price per litre in Germany: 1.46 EUR. (source:
http://www.theaa.com/onlinenews/allaboutcars/fuel/2011/october2011.pdf)
© Zsolt Kosinszky

9. Transport rate changes in Dec 2011
• 58% expect no change
70%
58%
60%
50%
40% What shippers expect
• 20% expect an increase 30%
20%
20%
8%
10% 1% 1% 4% 4% 3% 1%
of up to 2% no change 0%
• both shippers and carriers What shippers and
80%
71%
70%
61% carriers think
60%
the market 55% 50%
believe the market expects 50%
40%
expects
a rate increase of up
28%
30% 25%
20%
to 5%
10%
0%
rate increase no change rate increase of up to
5%
© Zsolt Kosinszky

10. Changes in carriers’ costs in Dec 2011
35% 33%
What carriers expect
• 75% expect higher costs 30%
25%
25% 25%
• 25% expect no change
20% 17%
15%
10%
• 33% expect an increase 5%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0%
of between 5-10%
80%
67%
What shippers and carriers
70%
think the market expects
• both shippers and carriers 60% 57%
50%
50%
42%
40%
foresee a cost increase of 30% 25%
20% 14%
up to 5% 10%
0%
cost increase no change cost increase of up
to 5%
© Zsolt Kosinszky

11. Transport capacity in Dec 2011
50% What shippers and carriers expect 46%
• while shippers rather 45%
40%
40%
35%
expect no change (40%), 35%
30%
31%
25%
23%
46% of carriers 25%
20%
15%
believe it will be less 10%
5%
than in November 2011 0%
more unchanged less
• carriers also believe 60%
What shippers and carriers 55%
think the market expects
the market expects less 50%
40% 37%
capacity (55%), while 30%
31%
27%
32%
shippers are rather 20% 18%
10%
undecided 0%
more unchanged less
© Zsolt Kosinszky

12. Volumes in Dec 2011
50% 46%
What shippers and
• both shippers and carriers 45%
40%
40%
carriers expect
35%
are rather positive about 30%
25%
30%
25%
20%
business expectations 20%
15%
10% 8%
5%
0%
• both shippers and carriers volume increase no change volume increase of
up to 5%
foresee that the market will 50%
45%
46% What shippers and
carriers think 38%
grow, although opinions 40%
35%
37%
32% the market
30%
expects22%
about no growth or 25%
20%
15%
decreasing business results 15%
10%
5%
are also strong 0%
volume increase no change volume increase of
up to 5%
© Zsolt Kosinszky

13. Thank you, sharing, next survey, contact
Firstly, if you are one of the 535 respondents who took this
survey, thank you for your time!
In case you found this survey useful and/or interesting, please feel
free to share it with anyone.
The January 2012 survey questions will be accessible from
December 15, 2011.
If you would like to get in touch with me, please write to
kosinszky.zsolt@gmail.com or contact me via LinkedIn
http://be.linkedin.com/in/zsoltkosinszky
or feel free to join the Collective Transport Sourcing group on
LinkedIn:
http://www.linkedin.com/groups?about=&gid=4128642
© Zsolt Kosinszky