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Valuing Partner Traffic
Through the Evolution of
eCommerce
Christian Erhard
Head of Partner Management Europe
eBay International Marketing GmbH
The marketing landscape is rapidly shifting


  New formats creating new ad opportunities
  • Local commerce rejuvenated by mobile
  • New experiences driven by phone and tablet adoption
  • Online and offline blur




                 Your advertising spend
                 •   Ad formats and behavioral data converging
                 •   Search / Social
                 •   Display / Search
                 •   Shopping Comparison / Affiliates
                 •   TV / Internet




                                           New consumer behaviours
                                           • Personalization
                                           • Social commerce
                                           • Mobile
In the world of
UNLIMITED
OPPORTUNITIES
how do you
DETERMINE VALUE
to make the
right investment?
Every investment is different. Reward it accordingly.




   INVESTMENT     DEFINE          ASSESS             ESTABLISH
   OPPORTUNITY    VALUE           QUALITY        PAYMENT STRUCTURE
What does value in internet marketing mean?




        Define measurable indicators for each traffic source / campaign




                                                        Strategic
            ROI                                           Value
                                                       - Brand awareness
                                                             - Visits
                                                       - Pre-post analysis



   ROI positive — cost vs spend                 ROI positive / neutral / negative
Traffic quality - true value




        Incrementality         Would this sale have happened anyway?
           of sales




                               •   Lifetime value of customers
        Other quality
                               •   User onsite behaviour
          factors
                               •   Legitimate traffic
Incrementality
Quick eBay Partner Network background



                                        eBay has had an affiliate
                                        program since 2001


                                        eBay Partner Network was
                                        launched in April 2008


                                        In-house platform has
                                        improved availability of data
                                        and ability to innovate


                                        We’re the merchant
                                        (12 eBay sites + Half.com)
                                        and the network
Quick eBay Partner Network background




                                        Over 100K affiliates in
                                        27 countries




                                        Many business models
                                        are supported, including
                                        portals, niche content
                                        sites, blogs,
                                        deals/loyalty sites, and
                                        more
Why we love affiliate marketing




               Measurable,            ROI
              Performance-          Positive
                  based




               Rewards            Rapid Growth,
                                      Huge
             Entrepreneurs        Opportunities
Why did we launch Quality Click Pricing?


          We began asking ourselves these questions....


   ―Did the affiliate’s efforts      ―Are the affiliate’s leads
   generate the lead/sale?‖            worth what we pay
                                            for them?‖




    ―How do we incentivise           ―How do we incentivise
     our best publishers to          publishers driving lower
    send us more traffic?‖          quality traffic to improve?‖
Quality Click Pricing




         Drive quality        Quality of traffic   EPC Amount
        traffic to eBay         evaluated            posted



   INVESTMENT        DEFINE          ASSESS            ESTABLISH
   OPPORTUNITY       VALUE           QUALITY       PAYMENT STRUCTURE
What is the incremental value affiliates add to my business?




             • Purchases                     Would the
                              What is
             • Bids                          event have
                              each event
             • New user                      taken place
             • Ad Revenue     worth?
                                             without ad
             • Mobile                        interaction?




              USER EVENTS      VALUE       INCREMENTALITY
Quality Click Pricing – short and long term incremental value

     When traffic is delivered to an eBay site, we assess its quality by looking at the
                      short term and long term incremental value
                               that the traffic brings to eBay.




       SHORT TERM VALUE                                       LONG TERM VALUE
        incremental revenue:                                revenue that new users
  purchases, PayPal and advertising                       (ACRUs) generate on eBay
                   +                                       beyond the first few days
             Engagement                                           after a click
                   =                                                    =
          direct result of the                         life-time of value to eBay of the
     publisher’s marketing efforts                   new customers you drive to our site
Quality Click Pricing



                        Incremental purchase revenue



     Historical
      Rolling           Long term value of new users
     Average



                         Additional sources of value




                    TOTAL REVENUE
Evaluating emerging trends:

mCOMMERCE
Mobile Commerce | eCommerce




     YESTERDAY             TODAY              TOMORROW


            Online 4%             Online 6%



                                  Online/
                                  Offline     COMMERCE
                        Offline
                        Offline    37%
     Offline 96%
                         57%
                          57%
Mobile Commerce | eCommerce




Source: http://techcrunch.com/2012/05/30/heres-kleiner-partner-mary-meekers-latest-data-dump-mind-the-mobile-monetization-gap/
Mobile users have everyday predictable patterns




  Mobile serves as an alarm         Social is checked       The mobile is becoming a
            clock.              throughout the day due to   new way to ‘count sheep‘
                                  the fresh content and     as many browse to relax /
                                desire to stay connected.        decompress.



     “The first time I come       “Thanks to my             “Late at night, I‘ll have the
     into contact with my         Smartphone I can be       iPad out just browsing.
     phone is early morning.      connected all day long    I usually check eBay to see
     I wake up to the alarm       with my friends via       what auctions are ending
     on my phone, I roll over     Facebook and I know       or what‘s new. It‘s
     and check email.“            what they are up to.“     relaxing.“



  Brandon S., 20                Sarah P., 31                Steve G., 45
Using mobile, the WHERE and WHEN become less important –
    shopping can happen anywhere, anytime




                  Whilst travelling/                   Whilst waiting around,      ‘Skiving’ at work
                commuting – trains,                    e.g. at the school gates
                 buses airports etc




                  In the supermarket                     Downtime at home         In bed at night/upon
                                                                                        waking

Source: eBay Mobile Research, m-Commerce users (2765), e-Commerce users (1935)
Characteristics of today’s mCommerce consumers


       % agreeing with “love online shopping”
       M purchasers – 81% E only purchasers – 65%
       % agreeing with “regular shopping sprees”
       M purchasers – 49% / E only purchasers – 30%



                                                   % agreeing with “first one to try new things”
                                                  M purchasers – 50% / E only purchasers – 20%




       % agreeing with “love discover apps on phone”
       M purchasers – 45% / E only purchasers – 10%




Source: eBay Mobile Research, m-Commerce users (2765), e-Commerce users (1935)
Characteristics of today’s mCommerce consumers



                                                           Global eBay transactions volume via
      M--‐commerce was a $3.4 billion market in the U.S.
      in 2010; expected to grow to $119 billion by 2015              mobile in $ billion
      across the globe

      Number of eBay downloads to date: 80,000,000

      Expensive items purchased:                                                       8
      ebay.com:

      $ 249,999 Lamborghini Gallardo
                                                                            5

      $ 52,999 Hermes Birkin Crocodile Bag
                                                                  2
      ebay.co.uk:

      £ 87,896 Maybach Automobile

      £ 19,595 Vintage Rare Red Sea-Dweller Rolex               2010      2011       2012
                                                                                   Forecast



Source: eBay and ABI Research
eBay Partner Network Mobile | Web-to-Web



 Mobile Traffic vs. classic Web Traffic

 •   Transparency: Partners learn even more
     about what their customers buy

 •   Efficiency: Activities can be better adapted
     and optimised to customers
     shopping behaviour                             ?
 •   Earnings: All traffic to international eBay
     mobile sites is taken into account and
     reported on
A few parting thoughts. Ask yourself:




                Are you making the most of the data you have?


              Are you capturing all user events that create value?


 Is your current payment structure flexible enough to account for future events?


            Are you ready for what is coming next?
Questions?

          Christian Erhard
Head of Partner Management Europe
 eBay International Marketing GmbH

        cerhard@ebay.com

   eBay Partner Network Blog:
 www.ebaypartnernetworkblog.com

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Valuing Partner Traffic through the evolution of Ecommerce

  • 1. Valuing Partner Traffic Through the Evolution of eCommerce Christian Erhard Head of Partner Management Europe eBay International Marketing GmbH
  • 2. The marketing landscape is rapidly shifting New formats creating new ad opportunities • Local commerce rejuvenated by mobile • New experiences driven by phone and tablet adoption • Online and offline blur Your advertising spend • Ad formats and behavioral data converging • Search / Social • Display / Search • Shopping Comparison / Affiliates • TV / Internet New consumer behaviours • Personalization • Social commerce • Mobile
  • 3. In the world of UNLIMITED OPPORTUNITIES how do you DETERMINE VALUE to make the right investment?
  • 4. Every investment is different. Reward it accordingly. INVESTMENT DEFINE ASSESS ESTABLISH OPPORTUNITY VALUE QUALITY PAYMENT STRUCTURE
  • 5. What does value in internet marketing mean? Define measurable indicators for each traffic source / campaign Strategic ROI Value - Brand awareness - Visits - Pre-post analysis ROI positive — cost vs spend ROI positive / neutral / negative
  • 6. Traffic quality - true value Incrementality Would this sale have happened anyway? of sales • Lifetime value of customers Other quality • User onsite behaviour factors • Legitimate traffic
  • 8. Quick eBay Partner Network background eBay has had an affiliate program since 2001 eBay Partner Network was launched in April 2008 In-house platform has improved availability of data and ability to innovate We’re the merchant (12 eBay sites + Half.com) and the network
  • 9. Quick eBay Partner Network background Over 100K affiliates in 27 countries Many business models are supported, including portals, niche content sites, blogs, deals/loyalty sites, and more
  • 10. Why we love affiliate marketing Measurable, ROI Performance- Positive based Rewards Rapid Growth, Huge Entrepreneurs Opportunities
  • 11. Why did we launch Quality Click Pricing? We began asking ourselves these questions.... ―Did the affiliate’s efforts ―Are the affiliate’s leads generate the lead/sale?‖ worth what we pay for them?‖ ―How do we incentivise ―How do we incentivise our best publishers to publishers driving lower send us more traffic?‖ quality traffic to improve?‖
  • 12. Quality Click Pricing Drive quality Quality of traffic EPC Amount traffic to eBay evaluated posted INVESTMENT DEFINE ASSESS ESTABLISH OPPORTUNITY VALUE QUALITY PAYMENT STRUCTURE
  • 13. What is the incremental value affiliates add to my business? • Purchases Would the What is • Bids event have each event • New user taken place • Ad Revenue worth? without ad • Mobile interaction? USER EVENTS VALUE INCREMENTALITY
  • 14. Quality Click Pricing – short and long term incremental value When traffic is delivered to an eBay site, we assess its quality by looking at the short term and long term incremental value that the traffic brings to eBay. SHORT TERM VALUE LONG TERM VALUE incremental revenue: revenue that new users purchases, PayPal and advertising (ACRUs) generate on eBay + beyond the first few days Engagement after a click = = direct result of the life-time of value to eBay of the publisher’s marketing efforts new customers you drive to our site
  • 15. Quality Click Pricing Incremental purchase revenue Historical Rolling Long term value of new users Average Additional sources of value TOTAL REVENUE
  • 17. Mobile Commerce | eCommerce YESTERDAY TODAY TOMORROW Online 4% Online 6% Online/ Offline COMMERCE Offline Offline 37% Offline 96% 57% 57%
  • 18. Mobile Commerce | eCommerce Source: http://techcrunch.com/2012/05/30/heres-kleiner-partner-mary-meekers-latest-data-dump-mind-the-mobile-monetization-gap/
  • 19. Mobile users have everyday predictable patterns Mobile serves as an alarm Social is checked The mobile is becoming a clock. throughout the day due to new way to ‘count sheep‘ the fresh content and as many browse to relax / desire to stay connected. decompress. “The first time I come “Thanks to my “Late at night, I‘ll have the into contact with my Smartphone I can be iPad out just browsing. phone is early morning. connected all day long I usually check eBay to see I wake up to the alarm with my friends via what auctions are ending on my phone, I roll over Facebook and I know or what‘s new. It‘s and check email.“ what they are up to.“ relaxing.“ Brandon S., 20 Sarah P., 31 Steve G., 45
  • 20. Using mobile, the WHERE and WHEN become less important – shopping can happen anywhere, anytime Whilst travelling/ Whilst waiting around, ‘Skiving’ at work commuting – trains, e.g. at the school gates buses airports etc In the supermarket Downtime at home In bed at night/upon waking Source: eBay Mobile Research, m-Commerce users (2765), e-Commerce users (1935)
  • 21. Characteristics of today’s mCommerce consumers % agreeing with “love online shopping” M purchasers – 81% E only purchasers – 65% % agreeing with “regular shopping sprees” M purchasers – 49% / E only purchasers – 30% % agreeing with “first one to try new things” M purchasers – 50% / E only purchasers – 20% % agreeing with “love discover apps on phone” M purchasers – 45% / E only purchasers – 10% Source: eBay Mobile Research, m-Commerce users (2765), e-Commerce users (1935)
  • 22. Characteristics of today’s mCommerce consumers Global eBay transactions volume via M--‐commerce was a $3.4 billion market in the U.S. in 2010; expected to grow to $119 billion by 2015 mobile in $ billion across the globe Number of eBay downloads to date: 80,000,000 Expensive items purchased: 8 ebay.com: $ 249,999 Lamborghini Gallardo 5 $ 52,999 Hermes Birkin Crocodile Bag 2 ebay.co.uk: £ 87,896 Maybach Automobile £ 19,595 Vintage Rare Red Sea-Dweller Rolex 2010 2011 2012 Forecast Source: eBay and ABI Research
  • 23. eBay Partner Network Mobile | Web-to-Web Mobile Traffic vs. classic Web Traffic • Transparency: Partners learn even more about what their customers buy • Efficiency: Activities can be better adapted and optimised to customers shopping behaviour ? • Earnings: All traffic to international eBay mobile sites is taken into account and reported on
  • 24. A few parting thoughts. Ask yourself: Are you making the most of the data you have? Are you capturing all user events that create value? Is your current payment structure flexible enough to account for future events? Are you ready for what is coming next?
  • 25. Questions? Christian Erhard Head of Partner Management Europe eBay International Marketing GmbH cerhard@ebay.com eBay Partner Network Blog: www.ebaypartnernetworkblog.com