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Edwin Modelling International Tourism Demand For Zimbabwe 20081101

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Modeling international tourism demand for Zimbabwe ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Presentation Plan ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Introduction ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Significance of Zimbabwe tourism ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Trends in international arrivals (1) ,[object Object]
Trends in international arrivals (2) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Events affecting tourism (1) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Events affecting tourism (2) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Relative market share trends ,[object Object]
Trends in monthly holiday visits ,[object Object]
Events to capture in modeling ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Determinants of foreign tourism ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Determinants of foreign tourism ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Determinants of foreign tourism ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Determinants of foreign tourism ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Determinants of foreign tourism ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Determinants of foreign tourism ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Determinants of Zim tourism ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Determinants of Zim tourism ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Estimation technique ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The ARDL estimation technique ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The ARDL estimation technique ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The ARDL estimation technique ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The bounds testing approach ,[object Object],[object Object],Dependant Variable Visits Zimprice Saprice Oilprice Unemploy F-Statistic 4.2627** 2.5086 2.0255 0.60253 2.2149 **Significant at 5% level of significance The critical values for case of unrestricted intercept and no trend for k=5 and T=80 are Lower Bound I(0)= 2.878; Upper Bound I(1)=4.015 using Narayan (2005) critical values
Estimation of the ARDL ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Results (Model 1) (Model 2) ARDL(1,1,0,0,0) Estimates Long-run Elasticities ARDL(1,1,1,0,0) Estimates Long-run Elasticities Variable Coefficient Std Error Coefficient Std Error Coefficient Std Error Coefficient Std Error Visits(-1) 0.2183** 0.0848 0.1854** 0.0807 Zimprice -0.6056*** 0.2167 -0.1481 0.1677 -0.5159** 0.2109 -0.1452 0.1453 Zimprice (-1) 0.4898** 0.2361 0.3977* 0.2263 Saprice 0.2896 0.2488 0.3704 0.3182 -1.0045 0.8295 0.03998 0.3016 Saprice(-1) - - 1.037 0.7905 Unemploy 0.04098 0.0987 0.0524 0.1255 -0.1123* 0.0663 -0.1378* 0.0794 Oilprice -0.2620 0.1822 -0.3351 0.2337 -0.4454*** 0.1659 -0.5467*** 0.1968 Constant 9.023*** 1.2184 11.542*** 0.9814 11.2843*** 1.3315 13.8518*** 0.6984 Eclipse 1.7210*** 0.3417 2.2015*** 0.5202 1.8117*** 0.3184 2.2239*** 0.8778 Malaika 1.0186*** 0.2509 1.303*** 0.3307 0.8145*** 0.2419 0.9998*** 0.3083 Political 0.04115 0.1572 0.05264 0.2012 0.0727 0.1511 0.0893 0.1855 Nov -0.0371 0.1287 -0.04745 0.1646 -0.0155 0.1237 -0.0190 0.1517 Dec 0.7178*** 0.1321 0.9182*** 0.2036 0.6874*** 0.1248 0.8439*** 0.1851 Sept11 - - -0.7359*** 0.2165 -0.9033*** 0.2519 Sept01 -0.3625* 0.2089 -0.4637* 0.2526 - - Adjusted R2 0.5679 0.6035 F –stat 15.2205[p-value 0.000] 11.8891[p-value 0.000] Serial Correlation LM Test 7.6646[p-value 0.811] 7.2973[p-value 0.8371] Heteroscedasticity LM Test 0.96432[p-value 0.326] 1.5920[p-value 0.207] ***Significant at 1% level of significance (L.O.S); **Significant at 5% LOS; *Significant at 10% L.O.S
Analysis of results ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Analysis of results ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Analysis of results ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusion ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Edwin Modelling International Tourism Demand For Zimbabwe 20081101

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  • 26. Results (Model 1) (Model 2) ARDL(1,1,0,0,0) Estimates Long-run Elasticities ARDL(1,1,1,0,0) Estimates Long-run Elasticities Variable Coefficient Std Error Coefficient Std Error Coefficient Std Error Coefficient Std Error Visits(-1) 0.2183** 0.0848 0.1854** 0.0807 Zimprice -0.6056*** 0.2167 -0.1481 0.1677 -0.5159** 0.2109 -0.1452 0.1453 Zimprice (-1) 0.4898** 0.2361 0.3977* 0.2263 Saprice 0.2896 0.2488 0.3704 0.3182 -1.0045 0.8295 0.03998 0.3016 Saprice(-1) - - 1.037 0.7905 Unemploy 0.04098 0.0987 0.0524 0.1255 -0.1123* 0.0663 -0.1378* 0.0794 Oilprice -0.2620 0.1822 -0.3351 0.2337 -0.4454*** 0.1659 -0.5467*** 0.1968 Constant 9.023*** 1.2184 11.542*** 0.9814 11.2843*** 1.3315 13.8518*** 0.6984 Eclipse 1.7210*** 0.3417 2.2015*** 0.5202 1.8117*** 0.3184 2.2239*** 0.8778 Malaika 1.0186*** 0.2509 1.303*** 0.3307 0.8145*** 0.2419 0.9998*** 0.3083 Political 0.04115 0.1572 0.05264 0.2012 0.0727 0.1511 0.0893 0.1855 Nov -0.0371 0.1287 -0.04745 0.1646 -0.0155 0.1237 -0.0190 0.1517 Dec 0.7178*** 0.1321 0.9182*** 0.2036 0.6874*** 0.1248 0.8439*** 0.1851 Sept11 - - -0.7359*** 0.2165 -0.9033*** 0.2519 Sept01 -0.3625* 0.2089 -0.4637* 0.2526 - - Adjusted R2 0.5679 0.6035 F –stat 15.2205[p-value 0.000] 11.8891[p-value 0.000] Serial Correlation LM Test 7.6646[p-value 0.811] 7.2973[p-value 0.8371] Heteroscedasticity LM Test 0.96432[p-value 0.326] 1.5920[p-value 0.207] ***Significant at 1% level of significance (L.O.S); **Significant at 5% LOS; *Significant at 10% L.O.S
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