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03+probability+distributions.ppt
1.
Quantitative Methods Varsha
Varde
2.
Quantitative Methods Quantifying
Uncertainty: Basic Concepts of Probability
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Assume equally likely
outcomes
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
Venn Diagram For
Roll of a die A:Odd spots B:Even Spots
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
Venn Diagram A:Candidates
over 3 years experience B:Candidates with post graduate qualification S AB
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
36.
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40.
41.
42.
P(Ai) P(B/Ai) P(AiB)
P(AiB)/P(B)= P(Ai/B) Prior Probabilities Conditional Probabilities Joint Probabilities Posterior Probabilities P(A1)=0.30 P(B/A1)=0.65 P(A1B)=0.195 P(A1/B)=.195/.37 =.527 P(A2)=0.70 P(B/A2)=0.25 P(A2B)=0.175 P(A2/B)=.175/.37=.473 P(B)=0.37
43.
44.
45.
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.
51.
52.
53.
54.
Frequency Distribution: Number
of Sales Orders Booked by 50 Sales Execs April 2006 Varsha Varde Number of Orders Number of SEs 00 – 04 14 05 - 09 19 10 – 14 07 15 – 19 04 20 – 24 02 25 – 29 01 30 – 34 02 35 – 39 00 40 – 44 01 TOTAL 50
55.
Probability Distribution Varsha
Varde Number of Orders Number of SEs Probability 00 – 04 14 0.28 05 - 09 19 0.38 10 – 14 07 0.14 15 – 19 04 0.08 20 – 24 02 0.04 25 – 29 01 0.02 30 – 34 02 0.04 35 – 39 00 0.00 40 – 44 01 0.02 TOTAL 50 1.00
56.
57.
58.
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60.
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