Miller - Space Science - Spring Review 2013

1DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution15 February 2013
Integrity  Service  Excellence
Dr. Kent Miller
Program Officer
AFOSR/RTB
Air Force Research Laboratory
05 March 2013
SPACE SCIENCE

2DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution
2013 AFOSR SPRING REVIEW
3001I Space Science Portfolio Overview
NAME: Dr. Kent Miller
BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF PORTFOLIO:
Specifying and forecasting the geospace environment of
Earth, extending from the Sun to the Earth’s upper
atmosphere, for Situational Awareness and for Space
Control
SUB-AREAS IN PORTFOLIO:
Solar and Heliospheric Physics
Magnetospheric Physics
Ionospheric and Thermospheric Physics

Why the Air Force interest in Space Sciences?
Space Weather
Space Weather
effects include:
• satellite drag
• radiation belt perturbations
• communication/
navigation/
surveillance

Contacts in Other Funding Agencies
Agency POC Science Area
NSF Rich Behnke et al. Solar/Terrestrial Relations,
Magnetospheric Physics,
Aeronomy, Cubesats
ONR Scott Budzien Neutral atmosphere and
ionosphere
NOAA TBD Space Weather predictions
NASA Madhulika Guhathakurta Heliophysics (Sun to Earth)
NRO Dave Byers Remote sensing of the
geospace environment
“The DOD’s DURIP has been the single most important activity, with sustained impact,
upon the infrastructure at US universities for state-of-the-art training of the next
generation of space scientists and engineers.”
-- Professor Michael Mendillo, Center for Space Physics, Boston University

Space Science: Overview
Thermosphere/
Ionosphere
Magnetosphere/
Radiation Belts
Solar Physics

The Solar Drivers
Solar flares:
X rays from solar
flares hit Earth in
8 minutes
Energetic
Particles
CMEs
Reach Earth in 15 min
to 24 hours
Reach Earth in 1 to
4 days

WSA-ENLIL Model: Solar Wind Speed
15 February 2013 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution

PI: W. Cao, NJ Institute of Technology
First Light Observation
with the NIRIS (2012 DURIP)
SDO Image NIRIS He-I NIRIS L-O-S Magnetogram

Adaptive Optics with the Big Bear
Solar Observatory New Solar Telescope
Image
obtained
with 357
actuator
deformable
mirror.
Center of
field has
0”.05 (~20
miles)
resolution :
Diffraction
limited
imaging.
PI: P. Goode, NJ Institute of Technology

Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric
Flux Transport (ADAPT) Model
Motivation: The global solar photospheric magnetic field distribution serves as
primary input to all coronal and solar wind models.
Approach: ADAPT adds rigorous data assimilation methods developed at Los
Alamos to the Nat’l Solar Observatory (NSO) solar photospheric magnetic field
flux transport model.
AFOSR
Star
Team!
Result: Improved, high quality “snapshots” of the Sun’s global magnetic
field used as key input to solar models
PI: N. Arge, AFRL/RVB

Modeling Coronal Hole Evolution
Open
Closed
New Active Region
7/14 /2010, 19:41 UTOpen/Closed Field Regions,
PFSS*
Br and Field Lines PFSS
STEREO B 195Å
PI: J. Linker, Predictive Science Inc.
Use ADAPT to predict the magnetic flux on the Sun, including an
active region.
The flux-evolved map provides a good prediction of the coronal hole
evolution
*PFSS = Potential Field Source Surface model

Physics of Solar Flares:
Developing Models for Forecasting
Goal: to determine if CMEs are associated with solar flares.
The project has:
(1) automated derivation of flare characteristics
(2) catalog/classified the flares
(3) used flare characteristics in a Multivariate Discriminant
Analysis to diagnose flaring probability
Goal is to associate the evolution of flare “bright points”
with coronal mass ejections.
PI: S. Balasubramaniam, AFRL/RVB

SRAG MAG4 Forecast Tool
Active region in upper-left
corner produced a Solar
Energetic Particle event and
geo-effective CME.
For each active region a
free-energy proxy is
measured and converted
empirically into a predicted
event rate.
Forecasts are made daily,
and posted at
http://www.uah.edu/cspar/research/mag4-page
PI: D. Falconer, U. Alabama

FY13 Basic Research Initiative
*IMF = interplanetary magnetic field
Understanding the Interaction of
Coronal Mass Ejections with the
Solar-Terrestrial Environment
PMs: Kent Miller and John Luginsland
Objectives:
1 – Improving forecasting and/or observing the IMF* orientation within
the CME;
2 – Coupling CME Models to solar and magnetosphere models;
3- Developing new observation and data processing techniques for
CMEs, developing data assimilation capabilities, and coupling new
CME/solar wind data into models

Controversy
The leading predictions for the
amplitude of Sunspot Cycle 24
are widely divergent.
Nature, May & June 2006
New Scientist (2006); Sky & Telescope (2007)
Dikpati et al. (2006)
Svalgaard, Cliver & Kamide (2005)
Latest (January 2013) NASA Prediction: 69 in Fall, 2013
Slide from the AFOSR Spring Review - 2008
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution

Thermosphere/
Ionosphere
Magnetosphere/
Radiation Belts
Solar Physics

Radiation Belt Dynamics
Numerical simulation
• Drift-diffusion model
• Diffusion attributable to VLF
waves radiated by the Naval
Communication Station
Harold E. Holt (call sign
NWC) in western Australia.
PI: J. Albert, AFRL/RVB
DEMETER satellite data:
Intensity of radiation belt
electrons precipitating into the
atmosphere, as a function of
energy E and location L.

Thermosphere/
Ionosphere
Magnetosphere/
Radiation Belts
Solar Physics

Scintillations and Satellite Drag

Observing campaigns are underway at Jicamarca, Peru to measure
plasma drifts, densities, temperatures, and composition simultaneously
along with wide- and narrow-beam irregularity imaging.
The campaign is one of the most complicated ever run at Jicamarca.
Goal: model forecast assessment, leading to near real-time ESF
forecasting.
PI: D. Hysell, Cornell U.
Real time ESF forecasting
Simulation
from Cornell U.
model of ESF
generation/
evolution

Longitudinal Distribution of
Equatorial Plasma Bubbles
PI: E. Kassie, Boston College
Bubble climatologies:
- Bubbles are more active
throughout the year in the
African region, especially
in the dusk sector.
- Strong seasonal
differences, such as dawn
bubbles are stronger in
May through August,
while dusk bubbles are
stronger at equinoxes

Possible Seeding of Bubbles
by convective activity
Convectively active
regions over South
America shown by blue
color in maps of infrared
emissions (left column of
panels)
ESF (ionograms, right
column of panels) appears
to be correlated with
appearance of convective
activity
PI: R. Tsunoda, SRI Inc.

Multi-scale nested simulations of ionospheric
density disturbances in Equatorial Spread F
Objective: high resolution
modeling of multi-scale
ionospheric dynamics over
a limited spatial range in
altitude, latitude and
longitude
Accomplishments:
Novel implicit relaxation
computational techniques
for use in nested
mesocale/microscale
ionospheric models
PI: A. Mahalov, Arizona State U.

Optical Images show the locations of these two
boundaries and thus where radio wave disruption
locations may occur across the eastern USA.
Radio Propagation Disruptions (e.g. amplitude
scintillations) occur in two distinct regions of
the sub-auroral ionosphere.
Use of DURIP Imager to specify Auroral
Space Weather Disruption Zones
Diffuse
Aurora
SAR Arc
PI: M. Mendillo, Boston U.

First Ever 3-D Image of Internal
Structure of Polar Cap Patch
Resolute Bay IS radar
OMTI red and green channels overlaid
PI: J. Semeter, Boston U.

NADIR: Neutral Atmosphere Density
Interdisciplinary Research
Focus Areas:
I. Scales of Density Variability, Winds, and Drag Prediction
II. Internal Processes and Thermosphere-Ionosphere Coupling
III. Energy Partitioning at High latitudes and Density
Implications
IV. Wave Forcing from the Lower Atmosphere
V. Forecasting Geomagnetic Activity
VI. Forecasting Solar EUV/UV Radiation
VII. Driver-Response Relationships
VIII. Satellite Drag in the Re-entry Region
U
Colorado
USAFA

Transition-ready Physics-Based
Thermosphere-Ionosphere Models
Over the course of the NADIR MURI the
accuracy of the CTIPe* physics-based
model has improved and can now match
and sometimes exceed the neutral density
from empirical models for satellite drag.
RMSE= 0.20
RMSE= 0.09
GRACE
*CTIPe = Coupled thermosphere ionosphere
plasmasphere extended model
PI: T. Fuller-Rowell,
U. Colorado-Boulder
CHAMP

Atmospheric Lunar Tide Adds
Significant Satellite Drag Variability
….and that
variability is
predictable
2007-2010 Averages
Lunar Tide from GRACE orbit has a period
of 13.56 days
recurrent
geomagnetic
activity
lunar tide
360 km
480 km
PI: J. Forbes, U. Colorado-Boulder

Thermospheric Overcooling During
Some Intense Geomagnetic Storms
Why do some
geomagnetic storms
produce lower than
expected neutral
density upheaval?
.
The reduction in neutral
density is caused by
excess particle deposition
in the upper atmosphere,
producing nitric oxide.
Nitric oxide is an efficient
IR radiator that rapidly
cools and contracts the
upper atmosphere.
PI: D. Knipp, U. Colorado

Test prediction that Lanthanide metals spontaneously
form dense, long-lived artificial plasma when released into
the upper atmosphere
Mitigation Strategies:
Metal Oxide Space Clouds (MOSC)
Quickly Reacts
with Ambient
Atomic Oxygen
Expelled
Sm Metal
Vapor
Sm
Sm
Sm
Sm
Sm
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Sm
Sm
Sm
-
-
Sm
SmO+
SmO+
SmO+
SmO+
SmO+ SmO+
SmO+
SmO+
And
Spontaneously
Ionizes
To form dense
long-lived
SmO+ plasma
Terrier-Improved
Orion Sounding
Rocket
O
O
O O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
Predicted artificial
density after 1
hour:
108/cc
Typical natural
density:
106/cc
A few kg of metal vapor potentially dwarfs the
natural ionosphere over areas up to 100 km across
PI: T. Pedersen, AFRL/RVB
AFOSR
Star
Team!

Mitigaton Strategies:
Creation of ionosphere layers
*HAARP = High-frequency Active Auroral Research Program
PI: C. Fallen, U. Alaska, YIP
Descending 557.7 nm “green-line” airglow with
UHF radar ion line indicates ionosphere electron
acceleration and creation of new ionization
Optics
Radar
60 km
[Fallen, PhD thesis 2010] adapted from [Pedersen et al., GRL 2010]
What is the
mechanism or
mechanisms
responsible
for the
ionization?
Estimating the
HF-accelerated
energetic
electron
distributions
needed to create
the observed
airglow and
ionization is a
fundamental
step

Physics of the Geospace Response
to Powerful HF Radio Waves
PI: E. Mishin, AFRL/RVB
First evidence of
F2-region
atmospheric
gravity waves
generated by HF
heating from
HAARP observed
by the CHAMP
and GRACE
satellites
CHAMP
GRACE

FY13 MURI: A New Paradigm in Sources and
Physics of High-Power Ionospheric Modification
Bring together physicists and engineers from:
Space science
Ionospheric modification
Plasma modeling
High power microwave source
Examine the question of coupling
electromagnetic energy to the ionosphere
Develop technology for a mobile source
PMs: John Luginsland and Kent Miller

Wrap Up: Trends / Emphasis
Focus on projects that enable predictive capabilities for
* solar activity
* neutral thermospheric densities
* scintillations and ionospheric irregularities
Maintain projects investigating the radiation belts
Decreased support for thermosphere/ionosphere
projects that do not address neutral densities or
ionospheric scintillations.

Questions?

(Some) Challenges to Progress
in Space Sciences
Challenge Opportunity? Pursuing?
Construction of
“Sun to mud”
predictive model
Need for such a model is obvious.
However, cross-scale coupling is a huge
challenge. Funding is difficult, particularly
in current climate.
Discussions with other
agencies and community
leaders.
Predicting solar
eruptive events
(flares and
CMEs)
STEREO, Hinode, and SDO are providing
extensive datasets and new insights.
Assimilative models are evolving,
complemented by numerical MHD models
and lab investigations.
About 1/3 of portfolio is
invested in solar physics,
with strong ties with
personnel in RV. Ongoing
collaboration with the
National Solar Observatory.

(Some) Challenges to Progress
in Space Sciences
Challenge Opportunity? Pursuing?
Predicting
ionospheric
irregularities.
C/NOFS plus GPS and TEC databases are
providing much new information and
opportunities for assimilative models.
Advances in computation and identification
of important physical processes such as
gravity waves are contributing much to the
goal.
Discussions with other
agency representatives are
ongoing, particularly with
NSF and NOAA/SWPC.
Forecasting
neutral densities
1-3 days ahead
Recent satellites CHAMP, GRACE, and
RAIDS are providing extensive datasets on
neutral densities*
FY07 MURI is in final year.
Significant contributions in
solar activity effects, wave
effects, drag coefficients.
Transitioning results in
collaboration with RVB.
Coupling
thermosphere/
ionosphere to
magnetosphere
Has not achieved high visibility or critical
mass. Limited funding .
Minor; through individual
PIs. NSF leads on this
topic; collaborate with them.

Miller - Space Science - Spring Review 2013

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Miller - Space Science - Spring Review 2013