Presented by Joseph Rusike (IITA) and Naomie Sakan (IFPRI) at the Africa RISING Monitoring & Evaluation Expert Meeting, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 5-7 September 2012
Time Series Foundation Models - current state and future directions
Sustainable intensification of cereal-livestock based farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa: Research framework overview
1. Sustainable Intensification of Cereal-Livestock based Farming Systems
in sub-Saharan Africa: Research Framework Overview
Joseph Rusike (IITA) and Naomie Sakan (IFPRI)
Africa RISING Monitoring & Evaluation Expert Meeting
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 5-7 September 2012
2. Research Design: Guiding Principles
• Focusing on agricultural intensification
• Applicable to all AfricaRISING countries
• In line with the CRP 1.1 and 1.2 “systems” logic
• Account for change at farm-level / “whole-farm
productivity”
• Integrate multiple stakeholders (innovation delivery
and value chain linkages)
• Focus on staple food intensification/productivity within
major farming systems but with consideration of
nutrition and diversification
• Research that backstops other FtF investments
• In line with USAID mission investments
• Provide a logical structure for the AR research
framework
3. Overview
• Context: Opportunities and constraints
• Purpose
• Objectives and Outcomes
• Guiding Principles and Conceptual
Framework
• Research Design
4. Constraints and Opportunities
Constraints
Limited access to:
- improved technologies;
- input and output markets;
- pro-poor policies and effective intitutions; Low productivity
- land and water resources
Biodiversity &
Environomental degradation
Land cover loss
Climate change/variability (rainfed production)
Soil erosion
Lack of knowledge and limited access to appropriate
technologies;
Overstocking and over-grazing
Increased food insecurity, risk, and vulnerability Viable Pathways to
of household livelihoods Sustainable Intensification
5. Constraints and Opportunities (cont’d)
Opportunities
Community-based and participatory research:
- identification and promotion of appropriate
technological (production and post-harvest), Development of
institutional, and policy options;
- agricultural productivity improvement; sustainable
- better resource management; livelihoods
- alternative income generating activities;
Community
Growth in food/feed demand and food diversification
capacity building
Investment in input supply systems (seed and fertilizer);
Export markets and multi-stakeholder partnerships
Own-food security (self-reliance), improved Sustainably Intensified
nutrition, income security, conserved or Cereal-Livestock-based
enhanced natural resource base Farming Systems
6. Purpose
Provide pathways out of hunger and poverty for small
holder families through sustainably intensified farming
systems that sufficiently improve food, nutrition, and
income security, particularly for women and children,
and conserve or enhance the natural resource base.
7. Research Objectives
1. To identify and evaluate demand-driven options for
sustainable intensification that accelerate progress
toward rural poverty alleviation, improved nutrition
and equity, and ecosystem stability [H1, H2, H3]
1.
2. To evaluate, document and exchange experiences
on processes and mechanisms for integrating and
delivering innovations for sustainable intensification
to facilitate their uptake beyond the Africa RISING
action research sites. [H4]
8. Development Objectives
1. To improve smallholder farm households’ livelihoods so
that they can move out of poverty and improve the
nutritional status, especially of young children and
mothers, while improving or maintaining ecosystem
stability within Africa RISING action research sites. [H4]
2. To facilitate partner-led dissemination of integrated
innovations for sustainable intensification beyond
the Africa RISING action research sites. [H4]
9. Research outcomes
1. Integrated innovations used for intensifying farming
practices of targeted types of households in a sustainable
manner within identified development domains.
2. Tools and approaches for identifying, evaluating and
disseminating integrated innovations for sustainable
intensification used for poverty alleviation and improving
nutritional status of young children and mothers, while
maintaining ecosystem stability.
3. The aggregated impact of integrated, innovative farming
practices at the household level is used to improve the
understanding of ecosystem stability (at the landscape level).
10. Development Outcomes
1. Small-holder farming households sustainably increase the overall
productivity of their farms, and thus their agricultural
output, income diversity, and improve nutrition and welfare
especially young children and mothers, within the Africa RISING
action research sites.
2. Small-holder farming households experience increased resilience
of their farming systems, and thus reduced vulnerability to
adverse environmental and economic challenges within Africa
RISING action research sites.
3. The development community increasingly uses innovative
outreach and support approaches, and related data & knowledge
management systems to design integrated innovations for
sustainable intensification at the farm household scale.
11. Guiding Principles & Conceptual Framework
1. Farm household scale : Africa RISING investments and
activities focal domain
– Decisions scale: e.g. production, gender and nutrition
issues, household welfare, soil health, and productivity issues;
– Decisions conditions: assets (e.g. land, labor, livestock, and
financial resource endowments), and livelihoods, production
objectives and aspiration of households within a given
regional and landscape context;
– Research activities focus: understanding household needs
and incentives in order to better support evaluation, adoption
and adaptation of the most relevant interventions.
12. Guiding Principles & Conceptual Framework
Geographic Stratification Farm/Landscape Stratification
Ag. Potential
(Rainfall) Intensification
HHti
Index (C)
Hi-Lo Hi-Hi Hi-Lo Hi-Hi
Development domains:
Condition SI challenges,
opportunities, and potential Lo-Lo Lo-Hi Lo-Lo (B) Lo-Hi
impacts HHt0 (A)
Market Potential Sustainability Index
Pop. density
Annual rainfall Local Altitude Soil type Crops
pattern groundwater
Topography Soil fertility Livestock
Annual rainfall Surface water
Seasonality and Formal irrigation
Temperature
LGP scheme
Soil Agricultural
Moisture production
availability
Climatic
Variability of
Water water supply
availability
Agricultural
Potential
Physical accessibility
Distance to roads
Market Access
Roads conditions Geographic
Domains
Availability of
market institutions
Population density
Potential market
integration
13. R4D Platforms: Trials Design
Degree of intervention/ method
Limited /observation National Level
Limited /observation Regional Level
District District
Some /exploration Platforms: SI No intervention
“Counterfactual”
innovations
High/Fisher or
classical experiment-
ation: Village Village Village Village Village Village
TF1 TF2 No
Mother-Baby; RCTS intervention
14. Research Hypotheses
H1. Adoption and integration hypotheses
Adoption hypothesis: Demand-driven innovations are adopted in preference to supply-
driven innovations.
Integration hypothesis: Innovations that mutually reinforce whole farm
performance/productivity produce greater and more sustained benefits than the joint
adoption of equally effective single use/purpose innovations.
H2. Trade-off hypothesis
Tailoring sets of innovation options to the constraints and opportunities encountered in
specific development domain-by-household type strata enhances the win-win outcomes of
innovation use (e.g. reduces the scale of negative trade-offs between farm productivity and
environmental integrity).
H3. Innovation sequencing and sustainable intensification pathways
hypothesis
The likelihood of innovation adoption resulting in sustainable intensification pathways over
time is conditioned by the sequence in which those innovations are integrated and applied.
H4. Scalability hypothesis
A stratified approach to targeting and evaluating SI-related innovations will increase the
relevance and scalability of findings from action research sites to similar strata elsewhere.
15. Research Outputs
RO 1: Situation Analysis and Programme-wide Synthesis:
activities include site characterisation and stratification as well
as identification of promising technologies.
RO 2: Integrated Systems Improvement: participatory
technology development and / or identification for wide
propagation and adaptation.
RO 3: Scaling and Delivery of Integrated Innovation:
generation of integrated technology combinations that are more
effectively targeted on farmer’s real development needs.
RO 4: Integrated M and E Process: wrapping the three
process-oriented outputs in a firm M and E framework that will
ensure first two components will generate integrated
technology.