Development of a new system for a proactive identification, assessment and communication of zoonosis and food emerging risks Emerging risks related to animal health and food safety often create great impact on the health of people, so identify before they manifest is crucial to prevent or minimize them, with this aim we have developed a new system to proactively identify, assess and communicate emerging risks, based on hazard signals horizon scanning, scenario analysis and online communication with stakeholders.

1. Development of a new system for a proactive
identification, assessment and communication of
zoonosis and food emerging risks.
1
Vicente Martínez1, José Miguel Pinazo1, José María Ferrer1
(vmartinez@ainia.es).
Background
Emerging risks related to animal health and food safety often create great impact on the
health of people, so identify before they manifest is crucial to prevent or minimize them,
with this aim we have developed a new system to proactively identify, assess and
communicate emerging risks, based on hazard signals horizon scanning, scenario analysis
and online communication with stakeholders.
Methods
S e le c tio n o f
in fo r m a tio n
s o u r ce s
Se arch and
analyz in g
sig nals
R is k M a tr ix
D e v e lo p m e n t
and
a s s es s m e n t o f
s ce n a rio s
S ig n a ls
filte rin g
•I m p a ct
• L ik e lih o o d
• H o r iz o n
Results
Horizon
Information
database
ainia
search
engine
Expert
criteria
Impacts (1-5)
•Human
•economic
•environmental
•short <1 year
•medium 1-5 years
•long term >5 years
IMPORTANCE (impacts
X likelihood)
25
E04
20
15
E-01
E-02
E-03
E-04
•high: 5
•medium: 3
•low: 1
Expert
consensus
ainia search engine
D e ve lo pm e n t a n d
a ss e ss m e n t
S c e n a r io s
Signals / issues filtering
RISK MATRIX 3-2013
Spain food sector
Probability
Emerging Risk Scenarios
Multi-resistant strains of Brachyspira hyodysenteriae. Swine Dysentery.
New deadly strain of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhoea Virus (PEDV.)
Food contamination by Cyclospora.
Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI).
IMPO.
15
11
9
22
HORIZON
Short
Short
Medium
Medium
E01
EO2
10
E03
2013
3
36
90
47
12
months
5
sources
reviewed
raw
filtered
signals
Risk
pilot project
0
signals
scenarios
SCENARIOS
Conclusions
The new system can be used to develop preventive actions against emerging risks, and
transfer information to assess risks through its historic risk library.
A next step is to identify the key drivers related to the risks, and along the development of
foresight scenarios, determine policies and strategic plans to improve the risk management
and communication.