A critical issue that we are facing NOW. Just that the main stream media dare not report it freely. Something that All of Us Must Know by NOW. Note that the Animation in the Slides can Only be seen with the Downloaded PPS file.

1. PEAK A brief introduction to Complied by KH Tang

2. Part 1 An Invitation to ask some Important Questions….

3. What is the GROWTH RATE of population in this planet? Or 1.5 Singapore

4. What is the World Population? We Are Here (2004) What are the necessary conditions to make the sharp raise in this curve?

13. http://www.worldwatch.org/pubs/books/13/ Click here to download this Free PDF Book Where to find those Charts and Data for Resources? The Charts and Data in the previous slides, unless specified, can be downloaded, free, from World Watch Institute’s publications, “State of the World” & “Vital Signs.”. http://www.worldwatch.org/pubs/pdf/ Table of Contents: Beyond Malthus: Nineteen Dimensions of the Population Challenge Grain Production Fresh Water Biodiversity Energy Oceanic Fish Catch Jobs Infectious Disease Cropland Forests Housing Climate Change Materials Urbanization Protected Natural Areas Education Waste Conflict Meat Production Income: Conclusion The Emergence of Demographic Fatigue

15. Why ASK so many QUESTIONS? - 1 Because… QUESTIONS are the ANSWERS.

16. Source of figure: “The Limits to Growth” – Phenomenon of short-term focus…. Why ASK so many QUESTIONS? - 2 This is where the world’s problems lie… Questions may lead to Solutions . Politicians think here to win the next election….. Most people Think here Most of the Time….

17. “ If we do not deal with Reality … … Reality will deal with us .” Why ASK so many QUESTIONS? - 3 Reality

18. Part 2 An Invitation To Find Out more about Peak Oil

19. This chart shows a typical characteristic curve of the production output vs time of an oil well. Oil Production in An Oil Well

20. This chart shows the production output of an oil field with eight individual oil wells. It is clear that, given enough wells, a smooth curve would result. It is known as Hubbert Curve, named after the geophysicist M. King Hubbert . Oil Production in An Oil Field 1 3 4 5 2 7 8 6 A Typical Hubbert Curve Peak

21. Because the USA (excluding Hawaii and Alaska) has been producing longer than anyone else, largely unaffected by external matters, it shows the Hubbert Curve better than anywhere else in the world. You can see that production has been declining since the 1970s and, despite the efforts of the richest, most technologically advanced society in the world, has not been stopped. Source: ASPO Oil Production in USA (lower- 48) 1930 -2002 Note: In 1956, the geologist M. King Hubbert predicted that U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970s. Almost everyone, inside and outside the oil industry, rejected Hubbert's analysis. The controversy raged until 1970, when the U.S. production of crude oil started to fall. Hubbert was right.

23. Oil Discovery and Production History: Abu Dhabi Source: ASPO newsletter #42 Take Note of the Peak Discovery Date , and Peak Production Date. The period of time between these date ranges from 20 – 50 years… Average is around 40 years… ABU DHABI Regular Oil Rates Mb/d Consumption 2003 0.2 per person b/a 7.3 Production 2003 1.9 Forecast 2010 1.9 Forecast 2020 1.9 Discovery 5-yr average Gb 0.01 Amounts Gb Past Production 18.6 Reported Proved Reserves* 92 Future Production - total 51.4 From Known Fields 48.5 From New Fields 2.8 Past and Future Production 70 Current Depletion Rate 1.8% Depletion Midpoint Date 2026 Peak Discovery Date 1964 Peak Production Date 2011 History Projection

24. Oil Discovery and Production History: Algeria Source: ASPO newsletter #41 ALGERIA Regular Oil Rates Mb/d Consumption 2003 0.17 per person b/a 1.9 Production 2003 1.0 Forecast 2010 1.2 Forecast 2020 0.85 Discovery 5-yr average Gb 0.03 Amounts Gb Past Production 12.5 Reported Proved Reserves* 11.3 Future Production - total 15.5 From Known Fields 13.3 From New Fields 2.2 Past and Future Production 28 Current Depletion Rate 2.4% Depletion Midpoint Date 2006 Peak Discovery Date 1956 Peak Production Date 2006

25. Oil Discovery and Production History: Angola Regular is Peaking Deep Water fields Come to rescue Source: ASPO newsletter #36 ANGOLA Regular Oil Deep Water Total Rates Mb/d Consumption 2002 14 per person b/a 1 Production 2002 0.7 0 0 Forecast 2010 0.5 0.5 1.0 Forecast 2020 0.3 1.5 1.8 Discovery 5-yr average Gb 0.2 1.5 1.5 Amounts Gb Past Production 4.3 0 4.3 Reported Proved Reserves* 5.4 Future Production - total 5.5 10 15 From Known Fields 5.2 9 14 From New Fields 0.2 1 1.2 Past and Future Production 10 10 20 Current Depletion Rate 5% Depletion Midpoint Date 2004 2011 2011 Peak Discovery Date 1971 1998 1998 Peak Production Date 2004 2020 2019

26. Oil Discovery and Production History: Argentina Production Already Peaked in 1998 Source: ASPO newsletter #33 ARGENTINA Regular Oil Rates Mb/d Consumption 2002 0.4 per person b/a 3.8 Production 2002 0.75 Forecast 2010 0.43 Forecast 2020 0.2 Discovery 5-yr average Gb 0.1 Amounts Gb Past Production 8.3 Reported Proved Reserves* 2.9 Future Production - total 3.7 From Known Fields 3.2 From New Fields 0.5 Past and Future Production 12 Current Depletion Rate 6.8% Depletion Midpoint Date 1994 Peak Discovery Date 1960 Peak Production Date 1998

27. Oil Discovery and Production History: Australia Production Already Peaked in 2000 Source: ASPO newsletter #28 AUSTRALIA Regular Oil Rates Mb/d Consumption 2002 0.84 per person b/a 0.042 Production 2002 0.63 Forecast 2010 0.45 Forecast 2020 0.29 Discovery 5-yr average Gb 0.3 Amounts Gb Past Production 5.8 Reported Proved Reserves* 3.5 Future Production 5.2 From Known Fields 3.9 From New Fields 1.4 Past and Future Production 11 Current Depletion Rate 4.2% Depletion Midpoint Date 2001 Peak Discovery Date 1967 Peak Production Date 2000

28. Oil Discovery and Production History: Azerbaijan Source: ASPO newsletter #44 AZERBAIJAN Regular Oil Rates Mb/d Consumption 2003 0.08 per person b/a 4.1 Production 2003 0.3 Forecast 2010 0.8 Forecast 2020 0.7 Discovery 5-yr average Gb 0.01 Amounts Gb Past Production 8.23 Reported Proved Reserves* 7.00 Future Production - total 14.7 From Known Fields 12.7 From New Fields 2.1 Past and Future Production 23 Current Depletion Rate 0.74% Depletion Midpoint Date 2014 Peak Discovery Date 1871 Peak Production Date 2009

29. Oil Discovery and Production History: Brazil Regular Peaked In 1997 Deep Water fields Come to rescue Source: ASPO newsletter #26 Brasil Regular Deep water Total Rates Mb/d Consumption 2002 1.86 per person b/a 3.6 Production 2002 0.11 .77 0.9 Forecast 2010 0.06 2 2.1 Forecast 2020 0.03 1.5 1.8 Discovery 5-yr average Gb 0.002 .03 Amounts Gb Past Production 4.5 2 6.5 Reported Proved Reserves 8.3 - Estimated Future Production to 2075 From Known Fields 0.6 12.5 13 From New Fields 0.8 3.9 5 Future Total 1.5 16.5 18 Past and Future Production 6.0 18.5 25 Current Depletion Rate 7% 2.8% Depletion Midpoint Date 1991 2012 Peak Discovery Date 1975 1996 Peak Production Date 1997 2012

30. Oil Discovery and Production History: China Production Already Peaked in 2003 Source: ASPO newsletter #40 CHINA Regular Oil Rates Mb/d Consumption 2003 5.4 per person b/a 1.6 Production 2003 3.4 Forecast 2010 2.6 Forecast 2020 1.7 Discovery 5-yr average Gb 0.04 Amounts Gb Past Production 29.8 Reported Proved Reserves* 18.3 Future Production - total 30.2 From Known Fields 24.3 From New Fields 5.8 Past and Future Production 60 Current Depletion Rate 3.9% Depletion Midpoint Date 2003 Peak Discovery Date 1959 Peak Production Date 2003

31. Oil Discovery and Production History: Colombia Production Already Peaked in 1999 Source: ASPO newsletter #19 Colombia Rates Mb/d Consumption 2001 0.23 Production 2001 0.86 Forecast 2010 0.39 Forecast 2020 0.24 Discovery 5-year average (Gb) 0.07 Amounts Gb Past Production 5.54 Reported Proved Reserves 1.75 Estimated Future Production to 2075 From Known Fields 3.94 From New Fields 0.53 Future Total 4.46 Total Production to 2075 10.00 Current Depletion Rate 4.9% Depletion Midpoint Date 1999 Peak Discovery Date 1992 Peak Production Date 1999

32. Oil Discovery and Production History: Ecuador Peaking Source: ASPO newsletter #29 KUWAIT Regular Oil Rates Mb/d Consumption 2002 0.132 per person b/a 4.0 Production 2003 0.34 Forecast 2010 0.39 Forecast 2020 0.37 Discovery 5-yr average Gb 0.02 Amounts Gb Past Production 3.3 Reported Proved Reserves* 4.6 Future Production - total 4.7 From Known Fields 4.4 From New Fields 0.3 Past and Future Production 8 Current Depletion Rate 3.6% Depletion Midpoint Date 2007 Peak Discovery Date 1969 Peak Production Date 2004

33. Oil Discovery and Production History: Egypt Production Already Peaked in 1995 Source: ASPO newsletter #30 EGYPT Regular Oil Rates Mb/d Consumption 2002 0.55 per person b/a 2.9 Production 2002 0.27 Forecast 2010 0.17 Forecast 2020 0.09 Discovery 5-yr average Gb 0.05 Amounts Gb Past Production 8.7 Reported Proved Reserves* 3.7 Future Production 4.3 From Known Fields 3.5 From New Fields 0.8 Past and Future Production 13 Current Depletion Rate 5.9% Depletion Midpoint Date 2007 Peak Discovery Date 1965 Peak Production Date 1995

34. Oil Discovery and Production History: Germany Production Already Peaked before 1970 Source: ASPO

35. Oil Discovery and Production History: Indonesia Production Already Peaked in 1977 Source: ASPO newsletter #18 Note: Being an OPEC member, Indonesia has no more extra capacity to export anymore in mid of 2004… There are importing now. Export = Production - Consumption INDONESIA Rates Mb/d Consumption 2001 1.065 Production 2001 1.200 Forecast 2010 0.83 Forecast 2020 0.56 Discovery 5-year average (Gb) 0.29 Amounts Gb Past Production 19.41 Reported Proved Reserves 5.00 Estimated Future Production to 2075 From Known Fields 9.00 From New Fields 1.59 Future Total 10.59 Total Production to 2075 30.00 Current Depletion Rate 4.0% Depletion Midpoint Date 1992 Peak Discovery Date 1955 Peak Production Date 1977

36. Oil Discovery and Production History: Iran Production Already Peaked in 1974 Source: ASPO newsletter #32 IRAN Regular Oil Rates Mb/d Consumption 2002 1.1 per person b/a 6.1 Production 2002 3.45 Forecast 2010 4.7 Forecast 2020 3.6 Discovery 5-yr average Gb 1.4 Amounts Gb Past Production 54 Reported Proved Reserves* 90 Future Production - total 76 From Known Fields 68 From New Fields 8 Past and Future Production 130 Current Depletion Rate 1.6% Depletion Midpoint Date 2009 Peak Discovery Date 1961 Peak Production Date 1974

37. Oil Discovery and Production History: Iraq World 2 nd Largest Oil Reserved Source: ASPO newsletter #24 Iraq – Conventional Rates Mb/d Consumption 2001 0.4 Production 2001 2.0 Forecast 2010 3.0 Forecast 2020 4.5 Discovery 5-year average (Gb) 0.06 Amounts Gb Past Production 27 Reported Proved Reserves 113 Estimated Future Production to 2075 From Known Fields 95 From New Fields 13 Future Total 108 Past and Future Production 135 Current Depletion Rate 0.7% Depletion Midpoint Date 2021 Peak Discovery Date 1948 Peak Production Date 2013

38. Oil Discovery and Production History: Italy Production Already Peaked in 1997 Source: ASPO newsletter #43 ITALY Regular Oil Rates Mb/d Consumption 2003 1.94 per person b/a 12.2 Production 2003 0.9 Forecast 2010 0.8 Forecast 2020 0.6 Discovery 5-yr average Gb 0.01 Amounts Gb Past Production 0.91 Reported Proved Reserves* 0.62 Future Production - total 1.1 From Known Fields 0.69 From New Fields 0.4 Past and Future Production 2.0 Current Depletion Rate 3.1% Depletion Midpoint Date 2005 Peak Discovery Date 1981 Peak Production Date 1997

39. Oil Discovery and Production History: Kuwait Production Already Peaked in 1971 Source: ASPO newsletter #38 KUWAIT Regular Oil Rates Mb/d Consumption 2002 0.23 per person b/a 42 Production 2003 1.85 Forecast 2010 2.6 Forecast 2020 2.5 Discovery 5-yr average Gb 0.0 Amounts Gb Past Production 35 Reported Proved Reserves* 96.5 Future Production - total 58.5 From Known Fields 53.6 From New Fields 4.9 Past and Future Production 90 Current Depletion Rate 1.1% Depletion Midpoint Date 2018 Peak Discovery Date 1938 Peak Production Date 1971

40. Oil Discovery and Production History: Libya Production Already Peaked in 1970 Source: ASPO newsletter #34 LIBYA Regular Oil Rates Mb/d Consumption 2002 0.15 per person b/a 9.1 Production 2002 1.3 Forecast 2010 1.4 Forecast 2020 1.2 Discovery 5-yr average Gb 0.1 Amounts Gb Past Production 23 Reported Proved Reserves* 29.5 Future Production - total 32 From Known Fields 29 From New Fields 3.2 Past and Future Production 55 Current Depletion Rate 1.5% Depletion Midpoint Date 2011 Peak Discovery Date 1961 Peak Production Date 1970

41. Oil Discovery and Production History: Mexico Production Already Peaked in 2002 Source: ASPO newsletter #35 MEXICO Regular Oil Rates Mb/d Consumption 2002 1.8 per person b/a 6.6 Production 2002 3.2 Forecast 2010 2.0 Forecast 2020 1.2 Discovery 5-yr average Gb 0.1 Amounts Gb Past Production 23 Reported Proved Reserves* 28.6 Future Production - total 21 From Known Fields 17 From New Fields 4.2 Past and Future Production 50 Current Depletion Rate 5.2% Depletion Midpoint Date 1999 Peak Discovery Date 1977 Peak Production Date 2002

42. Oil Discovery and Production History: Nigeria Regular Peaked In 1979 Deep Water Fields Come to rescue Source: ASPO newsletter #27 Nigeria Regular Deep water Total Rates Mb/d Consumption 2002 ? per person b/a ? Production 2002 1.9 0.15 2.0 Forecast 2010 1.9 1.2 3.1 Forecast 2020 1.5 0 1.5 Discovery 5-yr average Gb 0.6 0.9 Amounts Gb Past Production 22.4 - 22.4 Reported Proved Reserves 24. 4.5 24 Estimated Future Production to 2075 From Known Fields 30 4.5 34.5 From New Fields 2.6 3.0 5.6 Future Total 33 7.5 40.5 Past and Future Production 55 7.5 62.5 Current Depletion Rate 2.1% - Depletion Midpoint Date 2009 2009 Peak Discovery Date 1967 2001 Peak Production Date 1979 2009

43. Oil Discovery and Production History: Norway Production Already Peaked in 2003 Source: ASPO newsletter #25 Norway – Conventional Oil Rates Mb/d Consumption 2001 0.2 Production 2001 3.1 Forecast 2010 1.8 Forecast 2020 0.9 Discovery 5-year average (Gb) 0.013 Amounts Gb Past Production 16.3 Reported Proved Reserves 9.5 Estimated Future Production to 2075 From Known Fields 14 From New Fields 1.4 Future Total 16 Past and Future Production 32 Current Depletion Rate 7% Depletion Midpoint Date 2003 Peak Discovery Date 1979 Peak Production Date 2003

44. Oil Discovery and Production History: Oman Production Already Peaked in 2001 Source: ASPO newsletter #39 OMAN Regular Oil Rates Mb/d Consumption 2003 0.03? per person b/a 2.0 Production 2003 0.82 Forecast 2010 0.62 Forecast 2020 0.41 Discovery 5-yr average Gb 0.01 Amounts Gb Past Production 7.3 Reported Proved Reserves* 5.5 Future Production - total 7.2 From Known Fields 7.0 From New Fields 0.2 Past and Future Production 14.5 Current Depletion Rate 3.9% Depletion Midpoint Date 2003 Peak Discovery Date 1962 Peak Production Date 2001

45. Oil Discovery and Production History: Peru Production Already Peaked in 1983 Source: ASPO newsletter #45 PERU Regular Oil Rates Mb/d Consumption 2003 0.15 per person b/a 2.2 Production 2003 0.087 Forecast 2010 0.072 Forecast 2020 0.055 Discovery 5-yr average Gb 0.001 Amounts Gb Past Production 2.36 Reported Proved Reserves* 0.29 Future Production - total 1.14 From Known Fields 0.71 From New Fields 0.043 Past and Future Production 3.5 Current Depletion Rate 2.7% Depletion Midpoint Date 1988 Peak Discovery Date 1861 Peak Production Date 1983

46. Oil Discovery and Production History: Russia Production Already Peaked in 1987 Source: ASPO newsletter #31 RUSSIA Regular Oil Rates Mb/d Consumption 2002 2.46 per person b/a 6.0 Production 2002 7.39 Forecast 2010 9.34 Forecast 2020 4.85 Discovery 5-yr average Gb 0.5 Amounts Gb Past Production 121 Reported Proved Reserves* 60 Future Production - total 79 From Known Fields 63 From New Fields 15 Past and Future Production 200 Current Depletion Rate 3% Depletion Midpoint Date 1992 Peak Discovery Date 1960 Peak Production Date 1987

47. Oil Discovery and Production History: Saudi Arabia World Largest Oil Reserved Source: ASPO newsletter #21 When Saudi peak, the world supply peak. Saudi Arabia Rates Mb/d Consumption 2001 1.34 Production 2001 6.47 Forecast 2010 9.69 Forecast 2020 8.78 Discovery 5-year average (Gb) 0.66 Amounts Gb Past Production 91 Reported Proved Reserves 259 Estimated Future Production to 2075 From Known Fields 194 From New Fields 14 Future Total 209 Total Production to 2075 300 Current Depletion Rate 1.1% Depletion Midpoint Date 2020 Peak Discovery Date 1948 Peak Production Date 2012

48. Oil Discovery and Production History: Syria Production Already Peaked in 1995 Source: ASPO newsletter #17 SYRIA Rates Mb/d Consumption 2001 0.265 Production 2001 0.515 Forecast 2010 0.261 Forecast 2020 0.123 Discovery 5-year average (Gb) 0.006 Amounts Gb Past Production 3.60 Reported Proved Reserves 2.50 Estimated Future Production to 2060 From Known Fields 2.01 From New Fields 0.39 Future Total 2.40 Total Production to 2060 6.00 Current Depletion Rate 7.3% Depletion Midpoint Date 1998 Peak Discovery Date 1966 Peak Production Date 1995

49. Oil Discovery and Production History: Trinidad Production Already Peaked in 1978 Source: ASPO newsletter #37 TRINIDAD Regular Oil Rates Mb/d Consumption 2002 0.01 per person b/a 3.9 Production 2002 0.13 Forecast 2010 0.09 Forecast 2020 .007 Discovery 5-yr average Gb 0.01 Amounts Gb Past Production 3.2 Reported Proved Reserves* 0.72 Future Production - total 1.3 From Known Fields 1.1 From New Fields 0.2 Past and Future Production 4.5 Current Depletion Rate 3.4% Depletion Midpoint Date 1983 Peak Discovery Date 1969 Peak Production Date 1978

50. Source: ASPO newsletter #46 Oil Discovery and Production History: Turkey Production Already Peaked in 1991 TURKEY Regular Oil Rates Mb/d Consumption 2003 0.64 per person b/a 3.6 Production 2003 0.043 Forecast 2010 0.033 Forecast 2020 0.021 Discovery 5-yr average Gb 0.001 Amounts Gb Past Production 0.84 Reported Proved Reserves* 0.30 Future Production - total 0.36 From Known Fields 0.20 From New Fields 0.16 Past and Future Production 1.2 Current Depletion Rate 4.4% Depletion Midpoint Date 1992 Peak Discovery Date 1969 Peak Production Date 1991

51. Oil Discovery and Production History: United Kingdom Production Already Peaked in 1999 Source: ASPO newsletter #20 United Kingdom Rates Mb/d Consumption 2001 1.65 Production 2001 2.26 Forecast 2010 1.31 Forecast 2020 0.72 Discovery 5-year average (Gb) 0.21 Amounts Gb Past Production 18.78 Reported Proved Reserves 4.93 Estimated Future Production to 2075 From Known Fields 11.1 From New Fields 2.1 Future Total 13.2 Total Production to 2075 32 Current Depletion Rate 6.1% Depletion Midpoint Date 1998 Peak Discovery Date 1974 Peak Production Date 1999

52. Oil Discovery and Production History: USA Production Already Peaked in 1971 Source: ASPO newsletter #23 Note also the Depletion Rate…. It simply means, even if there is no growth in demand, USA still has to import more to cover their own depletion of production every year… What about the growth in demand for economy? USA – Conventional Rates Mb/d Consumption 2001 19.63 Production 2001 4.4 Forecast 2010 2.6 Forecast 2020 1.4 Discovery 5-year average (Gb) 0.1 Amounts Gb Past Production 169 Reported Proved Reserves 22 Estimated Future Production to 2075 From Known Fields 20 From New Fields 6.4 Future Total 26 Past and Future Production 195 Current Depletion Rate 6% Depletion Midpoint Date 2003 Peak Discovery Date 1930 Peak Production Date 1971

53. Oil Discovery and Production History: Venezuela Production Already Peaked in 1970 Source: ASPO newsletter #22 Venezuela – Conventional Rates Mb/d Consumption 2001 0.49 Production 2001 2.4 Forecast 2010 2.1 Forecast 2020 1.8 Discovery 5-year average (Gb) 0.1 Amounts Gb Past Production 45 Reported Proved Reserves 78 Estimated Future Production to 2075 From Known Fields 43 From New Fields 6.7 Future Total 50 Total Production to 2075 95 Current Depletion Rate 1.7% Depletion Midpoint Date 2003 Peak Discovery Date 1941 Peak Production Date 1970

54. Production is Projected to be Peaked by 2007- 2015 Oil Discovery and Production History: WORLD Peak Discovery 1964 Peak Discovery High Prices Curb Demand

56. The Growing Gap Now, we are using 4 barrels and discover 1 barrel. The Gap is GROWING… Source: ASPO

57. No one know exactly what will happen, the following depicts two scenarios in the opposite extreme case… When Peak Oil arrive, what may happen? Worst Scenario : In an improperly informed or prepared societies, a Domino Effect that setting off a chain reaction that destroy the necessary conditions required for a sustainable population. Best Scenario : A well informed and cooperative societies that work peacefully to share (ration) the remaining resources, first time in our human history. Cheap Oil Industrialization World Economy Cheap Water Supply Cheap Food Supply Sustainable Population World Peace

61. “ The world is a Dangerous Place, not because of those who do evil, but because of those who look and do nothing.” – Albert Einstein. Last But Not least If you receive this short presentation… It means that someone is trying to make sure you are not the last group of people who never hear about “Peak Oil”. It is OK to totally ignore this presentation. Anyway, sooner or later, everyone will come to hear and face about this from the mainstream media, the high oil price, etc... This is a Green presentation. Just let it print on 100% recycle electrons… It would help to prolong the “Peak Wood” scenario… Best Regards KH Tang 28 Sep 2004 http://blessedfool.blogspot.com/