1. Renewable Energy :
Prospects Update
IEEEP Annual Conference
March 2013
Akhtar Ali
Pro-Plan Associates
akhtarali1949@gmail.com
1
2. Renewables share in Total Energy
Global = 17-18% O/W
Traditional Biomass = 9%
Other renewable = 8%
30 Countries have a share of more than 20%
EU & US = 12%
Europe & Majors = 10%
Japan = 6%
2
4. Global Scenario
Share of Renewable Energy
2030
Conservative
Moderate
High
2040
2050
10 – 15
22
40%
15
35
60
40
80
4
5. Share of Renewable Electricity
Countries
Existing
2030
2050
Europe
21%
36 – 65
97 – 100
US
11%
15 – 71
30 – 90
Japan
10%
20 – 57
85 – 100
China
18%
25 – 43
50 – 92
India/Other Asia
31%
16 – 62
27 – 86
54 – 86
60 – 100
50
34 – 92
LA
Africa
5
6. World Capacities of various Renewable
Technologies - Status & Projections
GW
2006
2011
2030
Hydro
800
970
1300 – 1740
Wind
74
238
920 – 2700
Solar PV
8
70
490 – 1000
0.40
1.8
40 – 140
Biomass
45
72
210 – 340
Geo thermal
9.5
11
30 – 50
Ocean
0.3
0.5
10 – 20
938+
1362
CSP
World Total
4000
USA
900
Pakistan
25
6
7. Countries Share in various REN
USA
GER
Spain
Italy
China
Solar PV %
5.7
35.6
6.5
18.3
4.4
Solar Heating
Added
Capacity%
0.9
1.9
0.6
0.8
81%
1.5
Solar Heating
Total
Capacity%
1
5%
4
64.8
1.5
Wind Power
Additions MW
4.8
2
1.1
17
3
WP total
capacity MW
42
28
20
45
13
49
6
Hydro % Total
India
Japan
ROW
7.1
8.1
7
8. Comparative features of various
Renewable Technologies
Plant Size MW
Capacity
Factor %
Energy Cost US
Cents / kwh
Biomass
25 – 100
70 – 80
7.9 – 17.6
Geo thermal
1 – 100
60 – 90
5.7 – 10.7
1 – 18000
30 – 60
5 – 10
Micro Hydro
0.1 – 1000 kw
-
5 – 40
Ocean (Tidal)
1 – 250
23 – 29
21 – 28
Solar PV roof top
3.5 kw
10 – 20
22
Solar PV Utility
2.5 – 100
10 – 20
20
Wind Power on shore
1.5 – 3.5
20 – 40
5.21 – 16.5
0.5 – 5 MW
80
11.8 – 35.2 USD/GJ
Hydro Power Grid base
Biogas CHP
Bio diesel
16.5 – 177
Ethanol
20 – 102/L
8
10. Wind Power in Pakistan
•
•
•
•
•
•
2X50 MW projects already installed(Zorlu,FFC)
Several at Planning Stage
Total Potential Sindh-30,000 MW
Actual Potential : 10% of Total(2500 MW)
High Capacity Factor-31%
Unrealistically High Tariff-16 cents per kWh
10
14. Wind Is The Cheapest Power Source in
Uruguay
• The average winning price in a recent
Uruguayan auction for three 50MW wind
power projects was US $63.70 per MWh. The
cost of diesel or fuel-oil generated electricity
in Uruguay is $135 – 140 per MWh.
14
15. Wind Power in Brazil is Cheaper than
Gas
• Developers of 44 wind farms bid an average of
BRZ$99.58 (US$62) per MWh – below the
average price for the two natural gas projects
(BRZ$103.26), and a hydro project (BRZ$102)
• 1 USD=2 BRZ
• http://www.greenwellfuture.com/wind_pow
er_in_brazil
15
21. Solar PV applications and Business
models thereof
•Residential/small off-grid
•Residential grid integrated
•Utility distributed
•Utility Power Plant
21
43. Pakistan Solar PV Tubes well market
•Total Tube well = 1,000,000
•o/w Diesel = 834905 – 11000 MW
•
Electric = 85868 – 1104 MW
• 40% run less than 800 hrs
•Bulk of the Pumps 11-75 ft head
•75-80% of Tube Wells in Punjab
•Diesel – Number of days of Tube Well per year = 125
•Electric Number of days of Tube Well per year = 184
•10 – 15 -20 – 22 – 25 HP Avg 17
•Replacement demand = 400,000 (1994 and older)
•Average annual demand = 30,000 pumps
@ 10 kw per = 300 MW/pr
say
= 100 MW (for 10,000 pumps)
43
44. Micro-economics of Solar PV in Tube-well visa-vis Diesel Engine
Case study of a 15 kW Solar Tube-well replacing diesel engine
Item
Solar PV capacity
Capacity factor
Annual Electricity produced
Replacement cost of Diesel
Annual Diesel replacement
CAPEX Solar PV and Pump
Investment Payback Period
Equity @30%
Loan
Repayment period
interest rate
Annual Debt servicng
Annual saving for first 10 yrs
Equity payback Period
Present Value of 25 yrs saving
Net Present Value @10%
IRR
Electricity cost in1-10 years
Electricity cost in11-25 years
units
kW
hours
kWh
Rs/kWh
Rs/yr
Rs
years
Rs
Rs
years
%p.a
Rs
Rs
yrs
Rs
Rs
%
Rs/kWh
Amount/Value
15
1600
24000
25
600000
1800000
3
540000
1260000
10
14
241,559
298,441
$1.81
5,446,224
3,646,224
33.31
10.06
0
44
47. ISSUES
•T & D Losses
•High cost of Energy (circular debt)
•High Capital Costs
•Institutional Issues
•Lack of Transparency
•Lack of Competitions
•Local content /technology
47