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Chapter 13 ,[object Object],MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS 8/E Raymond McLeod, Jr. and George Schell Copyright 2001 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 13-
Simon’s Types of Decisions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],13-
Simon’s Problem Solving Phases ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],13-
Definitions of a Decision Support System (DSS) ,[object Object],[object Object],13-
The DSS Concept ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],13-
Degree of problem structure The Gorry and Scott Morton Grid Management levels Structured Semistructured Unstructured Operational control Management control Strategic planning Accounts receivable Order entry Inventory control Budget analysis-- engineered costs Short-term forecasting Tanker fleet mix Warehouse and factory location Production scheduling Cash management PERT/COST systems Variance analysis-- overall budget Budget preparation Sales and production Mergers and  acquisitions New  product planning R&D planning 13-
Alter’s DSS Types ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],13-
Levels of Alter’s DSSs ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],13-
Importance of Alter’s Study ,[object Object],[object Object],13-
Retrieve information elements Analyze entire files Prepare reports from multiple files Estimate decision consequen-ces Propose decisions Degree of problem solving support Degree of complexity of the problem-solving system Little Much Alter’s DSS Types Make decisions 13-
Three DSS Objectives ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Based on studies of Keen and Scott-Morton 13-
GDSS software Mathematical Models Other group  members Database GDSS software Environment Individual problem solvers Decision support system Environment Legend : Data Information Communication A DSS Model Report writing software 13-
Database Contents ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],13-
Group Decision Support Systems ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],13-
How GDSS Contributes  to Problem Solving ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],13-
GDSS Environmental Settings ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],13-
GDSS Types ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],13-
Smaller Larger GROUP   SIZE Face-to- face Dispersed Decision Room Local Area Decision Network Legislative Session Computer- Mediated Conference MEMBER PROXIMITY Group Size and Location Determine  GDSS Environmental Settings 13-
Groupware ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],13-
Main Groupware Functions   IBM  TeamWARE  Lotus  Novell  Function  Workgroup  Office  Notes  GroupWise X = standard feature O = optional feature 3 = third party offering 13-
Artificial Intelligence (AI) The activity of providing such machines as computers with the ability to display behavior that would be regarded as intelligent if it were observed in humans. 13-
History of AI ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],13-
Areas of Artificial Intelligence Expert systems AI hardware Robotics Perceptive systems (vision, hearing) Neural networks Natural language Learning Artificial Intelligence 13-
Appeal of Expert Systems ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],13-
Know- ledge base User User interface Instructions & information Solutions & explanations Knowledge Inference engine Problem Domain  Expert and knowledge engineer Development engine  Expert system An Expert  System Model 13-
Expert System Model ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],13-
User Interface ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],} Menus, commands, natural language, GUI 13-
Knowledge Base ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],13-
Evidence Conclusion Conclusion Evidence Evidence Evidence Evidence Evidence Evidence Evidence Conclusion A Rule Set That  Produces One Final Conclusion 13-
Rule Selection   ,[object Object],[object Object],13-
Inference Engine ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],13-
Forward Reasoning (Forward Chaining) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Start with inputs and work to solution 13-
Rule 1 Rule 3 Rule 2 Rule 4 Rule 5 Rule 6 Rule 7 Rule 8 Rule 9 Rule 10 Rule 11 Rule 12 IF A THEN B IF C THEN D IF M THEN E IF K THEN F IF G THEN H IF I THEN J IF B OR D THEN K IF E THEN L IF K AND L THEN N IF M THEN O IF N OR O THEN P F IF (F AND H) OR J THEN M The Forward Reasoning Process T T T T T T T T T F T Legend: First  pass Second pass Third pass 13-
Reverse Reasoning Steps (Backward Chaining)   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Start with solution and work back to inputs 13-
T Rule 1 Rule 2 Rule 3 Rule 9 Rule 11 Legend: Problems to  be solved Step 4 Step 3 Step 2 Step 1 Step 5 IF A THEN B IF B OR D THEN K IF K AND L THEN N IF N OR O  THEN P IF C THEN D IF M THEN E IF E THEN L IF (F AND H) OR J THEN M IF M THEN O IF M THEN O The First Five Problems  Are Identified Rule 7 Rule 10 Rule 12 Rule 8 13- T
If K Then F Legend: Problems to  be solved If G Then H If I Then J If M Then O Step 8 Step 9 Step 7 Step 6 Rule 4 Rule 5 Rule 11 Rule 6 T IF (F And H) Or J  Then M T Rule 9 T T Rule 12 T If N Or O Then P The Next Four Problems Are Identified 13-
Forward Versus Reverse Reasoning ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],13-
Development Engine ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],13-
Expert System Advantages ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],13-
Expert System Disadvantages ,[object Object],[object Object],13-
Keys to Successful ES Development ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],13-
Neural Networks ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],13-
The Human Brain ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],13-
Soma (processor ) Axon Synapse Dendrites (input) Axonal Paths (output) Simple Biological Neurons 13-
Evolution of Artificial  Neural Systems (ANS) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],13-
Current Methodology ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],13-
Single Artificial Neuron 13- y 1 y 2 y 3 y n-1 y w 1 w 2 w 3 w n-1
The Multi-Layer Perceptron Y n2 IN n OUT n OUT 1 IN 1 Y 1 Input Layer OutputLayer 13-
Knowledge-based Systems  in Perspective ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],13-
Summary [cont.] ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],13-

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Chap13

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  • 6. Degree of problem structure The Gorry and Scott Morton Grid Management levels Structured Semistructured Unstructured Operational control Management control Strategic planning Accounts receivable Order entry Inventory control Budget analysis-- engineered costs Short-term forecasting Tanker fleet mix Warehouse and factory location Production scheduling Cash management PERT/COST systems Variance analysis-- overall budget Budget preparation Sales and production Mergers and acquisitions New product planning R&D planning 13-
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  • 10. Retrieve information elements Analyze entire files Prepare reports from multiple files Estimate decision consequen-ces Propose decisions Degree of problem solving support Degree of complexity of the problem-solving system Little Much Alter’s DSS Types Make decisions 13-
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  • 12. GDSS software Mathematical Models Other group members Database GDSS software Environment Individual problem solvers Decision support system Environment Legend : Data Information Communication A DSS Model Report writing software 13-
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  • 18. Smaller Larger GROUP SIZE Face-to- face Dispersed Decision Room Local Area Decision Network Legislative Session Computer- Mediated Conference MEMBER PROXIMITY Group Size and Location Determine GDSS Environmental Settings 13-
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  • 20. Main Groupware Functions IBM TeamWARE Lotus Novell Function Workgroup Office Notes GroupWise X = standard feature O = optional feature 3 = third party offering 13-
  • 21. Artificial Intelligence (AI) The activity of providing such machines as computers with the ability to display behavior that would be regarded as intelligent if it were observed in humans. 13-
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  • 23. Areas of Artificial Intelligence Expert systems AI hardware Robotics Perceptive systems (vision, hearing) Neural networks Natural language Learning Artificial Intelligence 13-
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  • 25. Know- ledge base User User interface Instructions & information Solutions & explanations Knowledge Inference engine Problem Domain Expert and knowledge engineer Development engine Expert system An Expert System Model 13-
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  • 29. Evidence Conclusion Conclusion Evidence Evidence Evidence Evidence Evidence Evidence Evidence Conclusion A Rule Set That Produces One Final Conclusion 13-
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  • 33. Rule 1 Rule 3 Rule 2 Rule 4 Rule 5 Rule 6 Rule 7 Rule 8 Rule 9 Rule 10 Rule 11 Rule 12 IF A THEN B IF C THEN D IF M THEN E IF K THEN F IF G THEN H IF I THEN J IF B OR D THEN K IF E THEN L IF K AND L THEN N IF M THEN O IF N OR O THEN P F IF (F AND H) OR J THEN M The Forward Reasoning Process T T T T T T T T T F T Legend: First pass Second pass Third pass 13-
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  • 35. T Rule 1 Rule 2 Rule 3 Rule 9 Rule 11 Legend: Problems to be solved Step 4 Step 3 Step 2 Step 1 Step 5 IF A THEN B IF B OR D THEN K IF K AND L THEN N IF N OR O THEN P IF C THEN D IF M THEN E IF E THEN L IF (F AND H) OR J THEN M IF M THEN O IF M THEN O The First Five Problems Are Identified Rule 7 Rule 10 Rule 12 Rule 8 13- T
  • 36. If K Then F Legend: Problems to be solved If G Then H If I Then J If M Then O Step 8 Step 9 Step 7 Step 6 Rule 4 Rule 5 Rule 11 Rule 6 T IF (F And H) Or J Then M T Rule 9 T T Rule 12 T If N Or O Then P The Next Four Problems Are Identified 13-
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  • 44. Soma (processor ) Axon Synapse Dendrites (input) Axonal Paths (output) Simple Biological Neurons 13-
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  • 47. Single Artificial Neuron 13- y 1 y 2 y 3 y n-1 y w 1 w 2 w 3 w n-1
  • 48. The Multi-Layer Perceptron Y n2 IN n OUT n OUT 1 IN 1 Y 1 Input Layer OutputLayer 13-
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Notes de l'éditeur

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