This document provides an opening presentation on the importance of US leadership in IPv6. It discusses how US investment in IPv6 could lead to economic benefits but a lack of investment could result in economic decline compared to other nations that actively support IPv6. It also justifies how federal funding of IPv6 aligns with the US Constitution and could have significant returns through new industries and export opportunities.

1. The Double-Edged Sword
—————————————
Why US Leadership in IPv6
is Critically Important
December 8, 2004
By Alex Lightman
Cal–(IT)2 Scholar
Chairman, IPv6 Summit, Inc.
Founder, The 4G Society

2. Thank you to our sponsors.

3. Welcome to the US IPv6 Summit 2004
• Opening Thoughts on IPv6
• What will be Built with IPv6 is
Unimaginable…But Let’s Try Anyway
• The Butterfly Effect of The Internet:
• Tens of million$ > Tens of Trillion$
• “They did. We didn’t”
• IPv6, 4G, and The Ever Smarter World
• The Powers of IPv6

4. Opening Thoughts
The primary reason to innovate with
IPv6 is to improve human and
machine information and
communication experiences and
thereby improve civilization for all
humanity, for generations to come.
• What we will build with IPv6 is
unimaginable.

5. Is v6 Visualization Necessary for Large
Scale v6 Capitalization? Almost Certainly.
• If you had to draw the Internet what would it look like?
(Assume you have days).
• “You’ll see it when you believe it” & vice-versa.
• We can imagine railroads, highways, stores, even
armies. The Internet doesn’t get due credit because it’s
very difficult to comprehend.
• IPv6 is perhaps not debatable, and therefore not
politically fundable by the US Congress, the only body
that can appropriate new funds for projects that touch
every area of national life, vs. reallocating funds.
• Visualizations of the current Internet can open us to
imagining new and vast possibilities.

12. Improve experience: Getting 4
relationships/customer
“Bank of America experienced churn.”
“We were stuck at 13 million customers
because 3 million would join but 3 million
would leave each year.”
“We found that if and when people had four
or more different relationships with B of A
(checking, savings, credit card, bill
paying, auto loan, mortgage) then our
retention went UP and our churn for these
people went way down. We now have 30
million customers.”

13. Trade Deficit Will Force US to Export Services!
• Services: over 80% of US $12 T GDP.
• Annual deficit of $600 B in goods (about
one third oil, one third autos)
• Annual surplus of $15 B in agriculture,
$60 B in services
• Biggest leverage: increase service
exports from less than 1% to 5% of US
services.
• First New Internet Cluster has chance to
double GDP as service export 4G hub.

14. America is the Biggest “Path Dependency” Beneficiary
• Consumers around the world have an increased
marginal propensity to consume new products from
America if they already have a relationship with four or
more other aspects of American culture
• America’s products and services act as a “Package
Deal” or bundle of habits for hundreds of millions of
people around the world.
• The Other Network of Networks: US dollar, television, air traffic
control, English language, movies, celebrities, pension funds,
equities, derivatives, oil exploration, oil refining, oil distribution,
Internet, hardware, software, open source, web sites, sports, credit
cards, credit ratings, NATO, Fortune 500, transfer pricing, Interpol,
intelligence agencies, US military bases, precious metals, hotels,
brands, soft drinks, fast food, books, magazines, architecture,
resorts, video games, Constitution, retailers…

15. IPv6 Leadership Increases Path
Dependency for Other Countries with US
• Confidence Building Measures via Joint
Standards, Testing, Implementation
• Confidence Building Projects are an excellent
opportunity for multilateral diplomacy.
• Possible improved cooperation among and
between militaries, air traffic control, universities,
manufacturers, distributors, retailers, intranets,
banking, brokerage, security cameras, media, oil
visualization, command and control centers, law
enforcement

16. US Federal IPv6 Investment is
Price of Global Partnerships
• US must have something to offer to others.
• Japan and Europe have each invested tens of
millions/year for over five years in IPv6 related
activities, vs. only a few million in total for US.
• US must invest at least $20 million in DoD IPv6
transition per year, with $10 billion for 2005-
2010 for the entire federal government (140
federal CIOs) to create 10 million jobs justified
by the opportunity of IPv6.

17. Japan is the clear leader in IPv6, with most of the world’s users and
products. Here are IPv6 enabled products from Panasonic as of Dec.
2004 (which have no US made counterparts). Cameras have 2 way
VoIP! What can US offer Japan for v6?
Camera Control Unit
(Wireless Broadband Router)
Auto
On Sale Now!
On Sale Now! Configuration
IEEE 802.11 g/b
Network cameras
Coming
BB-HCM311A 2005 Network Printer
Pan & Tilt
Pan & Tilt Wireless Outdoor
Color Laser
Indoor Printer*
Pan & Tilt Pan, Tilt & 42x
Outdoor Zoom
* Prototype
Contact: Alex Ramia, alexkr@pcla.panasonic.com

18. The Butterfly Effect of Federal Government:
Making US Internet Success Story
Project Air Force paid for Paul Baran
(RAND) to conceptualize packet switching
DARPA paid for fathers of the Internet to
make first connections: ARPANET
DARPA “tough love”: shutting off NCP
packets 1 day in mid-1982, then 2 days in
late 1982, then entirely by mid-1983
NSFNET funded 1985-1995
NCSA (also NSF) launches Mosaic, Apache

19. The Greatest ROI in History
• Tens of millions put into the Internet by several
difference US government agencies off and on,
1961-1995 (roughly $50 million total)
• During 1990s, economic boom that added 27
million jobs (vs. 0 net in Europe) and increased
US federal revenue from $1 trillion to $2
trillion/yr.
• Economists say Internet accounted for 1/3rd to
1/2 of GDP growth, so $300-500 BILLION/year,
giving an ROI of up to a million percent annually.
• DoD is actually a profit center and generated a
return equivalent to its entire budget via net’s
value added impact.

20. US Gov’t as Alpha Prosumer =
Repeat Successes for 228 years!
• Constituting event: Stamp Act, tax on printing,
led to federal postal system, subsidized delivery
of news, magazines.
• US federal support/guidance/purchasing =
success for telegraph, telephone, railroads
(early years), electricity, oil, satellites,
highways, ports, airports, aerospace, satellites,
launch facilities, black & white TV, Internet…
• Lack of fed leadership = US decline/failure:
metric system, 2G (GSM), 3G, color television,
broadband. US dollar and IPv6 next victims?

21. Constitutional Justification for Funding IPv6 (1/2)
Section 8 has 18 clauses. Of these three relate directly or
indirectly to federal government involvement in IPv6.
• Clause 5: To coin Money, regulate the Value thereof,
and of foreign Coin, and fix the Standard of Weights
and Measures;
• Clause 7: To establish Post Offices and post Roads;
• Clause 8: To promote the Progress of Science and
useful Arts, by securing for limited Times to Authors
and Inventors the exclusive Right to their respective
Writings and Discoveries;

22. Constitutional Justification for Funding IPv6 (2/2)
• We the People of the United States, in
Order to form a more perfect Union,
establish Justice, insure domestic
Tranquility, provide for the common
defense, promote the general Welfare,
and secure the Blessings of Liberty to
ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and
establish this Constitution for the United
States of America.

23. They did. We didn’t. (1/12)
• If the US DoD does not properly fund the
IPv6 transition and protect it from
cannibalization, the DoD IPv6 transition
will not be complete by 2008.
• If the DoD does not look like it will meet its
own mandate, the political capital will not
be sufficient for OMB to get a federal
mandate for IPv6 within the decade.

24. They did. We didn’t. (2/12)
• If there is no federal mandate for IPv6, the
US cannot lead in IPv6 compared to
countries that do have or soon will have
federal mandates with sufficient funding.
• China, Japan, Korea, India, and the
European Union are eager to compete
with the US and have trade surpluses with
the US to fund their transitions.

25. They did. We didn’t. (3/12)
• If the US does not lead in IPv6, the US
cannot lead in the Internet.
• If the US does not lead in the Internet, it
cannot lead in Information Technology
• If the US does not lead in Information
Technology, it cannot lead in high
technology.

26. They did. We didn’t. (4/12)
• If the US does not lead in high
technology, it will be difficult to lead
the world in anything except for
deficits.
• We will lose opportunities in satellites,
automotive, energy, toys, apparel,
food, 4G wireless, and a broadband-
enable service export boom

27. They did. We didn’t. (5/12)
• If the US does not lead in anything but
deficits, its economy will shrink even as its
population increases.

28. They did. We didn’t. (6/12)
• Thus, if the DoD does not properly fund
IPv6 from 2005 to 2008, it will not be able
to do much of anything a decade or two
down the road, and be less than half as
strong relative to its rivals as it is today.

29. They did. We didn’t. (7/12)
• Imagine a future in which the US treats lPv6 like
we did the metric system or wireless.
• World population will be 7.2 billion and world
GDP will be $72 trillion/year
• We will make up 5% of the world’s population
(360 million) and 15% of the world’s GDP.
• Greater China will make up 22% of the world’s
population and 22% of the world’s economy

30. They did. We didn’t. (8/12)
• The US dollar will no longer be the world’s
reserve currency, and oil will cost over 100
Euros a barrel. US manufacturing will be
nearly eliminated. The US will have a
smaller economy and a smaller employed
workforce than it does today, with a larger
population and a vastly larger retired and
unemployed population than today. ($10.8
trillion economy, 160 million employed)

31. They did. We didn’t. (9/12)
• The largest oil, coal, steel, automobile,
computer, mobile phone, construction, banking,
insurance, brokerage, and aerospace
companies will all be Chinese. The largest
software, security, temp worker, film, television,
music, and game companies will all be Indian.
The largest consumer electronics companies will
be combinations of Japanese/Korean design
and engineering with Chinese manufacturing.

32. They did. We didn’t. (10/12)
• Hundreds of millions of Americans will walk
around with 4G personal communicators that
give 100 Mb/sec. with nearly no costs for
bandwidth or content. Royalties will go to owners
of entertainment libraries formerly owned by
Americans and sold to Asians and Europeans.
Chinese intelligence will be listening in, while US
intelligence agencies are locked out and unable
to pierce the 2K bit encryption.

33. They did. We didn’t. (11/12)
• The Internet will be run by the ITU, which means
it is controlled by China and to a lesser extent by
India, which can shut it down in whole or part to
advantage their companies and militaries.
• China will have claimed and started to mine both
the moon and Mars and have military bases on
both that allow it, uniquely, to have a third strike
capability, which it will threaten to use.

34. They did. We didn’t. (12/12)
• America will be a net agricultural importer,
a net importer of manufactured goods, and
a net importer of data, entertainment, and
services, with fewer friends to back it up
internationally.
• America will be a case study in under-
funding the Internet and strategic inflection
points, a mistake that the new super-
powers will never make with the fall of the
US as a big lesson. (End)

35. Service Provider Revenues
$$$
Total Revenue
Old Sources
New Sources
Time

36. Cambrian Explosion
Bacteria ☺
Adaptive Radiation/Chaos/
Complex Environmental Interaction
Pseudo-Random Search
Evolution Insects
Invertebrates
Selection/Emergence/
Multicellularity
Phase Space Collapse/
Discovered
MEST Collapse
Development
Vertebrates
570 mya. 35 body plans emerged immediately after. No new body plans since!
Only new brain plans, built on top of the body plans.

37. Wanted! IPv6 Prosumer Innovators
“We need people who create supply and
demand for new IPv6 services”. Ministry
of Science and Technology, Madrid IPv6
Summit.
• George Washington Carver (100 uses for
peanut, entire dinner, SW)
• Thomas Edison (over 1,050 patents, direct
current, AC, and many ways to use it)
• Larry Smarr (from 100 scientists with SC
access to 30,000, Mosaic/IE, Apache). The
importance of CREATIVITY and VISION!

38. 11 Powers of IPv6 Leaders and Prosumers
1. Power of Numbering and Sequencing
2. Power of Ranking
3. Power of Naming
4. Power of Leading
5. Power of Granularity
6. Power of Bounding
7. Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery
to street to 5 digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
8. Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
9. Power of Containerized Cargo
10. Power of Tight Targeting
11. Power of Better Modeling and Simulation

39. The Information Foundation
• Just as the foundation of a building (and use of brick
vs. structural steel) determines how high it can go,
the information foundation (structure of networks)
determines how high civilization can reach.
• IPv6 is infrastructure!
• IPv4 is straining to support just one application like
the World Wide Web. IPv6 could support at least ten
applications the size of the WWW.
• Like putting round peg in round hole: how do we drop
entire industries into the expanding IPv6, creating
commercial explosions?

40. ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
• Atlas application = supports the world
1. Voice ($500 billion annually)
2. Radio (add personalization, location)
3. Television (Every show ever made)
4. Medical Monitoring
5. Simulations
6. High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
7. 4G wireless broadband

41. The Next Logical Step In
Wireless Data
Vehicular $0.45 - $20/Mbyte $0.02-$0.07/Mbyte
OFDM?, UW B? Dynamic Chaos?
GSM, cdmaOne GPRS, EDGE W-CDMA, cdma2000
High-Mobility
PDC
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
2G 2.5G 3G
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Pedestrian
802.11b 802.11a
4G
(2005 –2010)
Low Mobility
DECT/ Cordless
Bluetooth
Portable Phones
Smart Antennas
56K Modem s E1/T1 Line s
DSL/Cable
Fixed
Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
0.01 0.1 1.0 10 100
Information Rate (Mbps)
Page 13
© BellSouth Cellular Corp 1999
All rights reserved

42. The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing

43. Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today Future
Single-service networks Multi-service networks
Services
Content Content
Servers
Communcationi Control
Fixed Telephony
LAN (Data)
Radio/TV
IP Backbone Network
GSM
Access Access
Access
Transport, Switching & Access Networks

44. 4G as the Integrator
Fourth
Satellite
Broadband
Generation Personal
S-UMTS Body-LAN
Satellite DVB-S Area Networks
High Altitude Platform DVB-T Broadband
Bluetooth
DAB IPv6 W-LAN
EDGE Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
Broadcasting GPRS FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60 MWS
GSM Fixed Wireless Access
UMTS xMDS
MBS 40
Wireless Local Loop
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular ©JPER

45. Seven Wonders of the IPv6 World
• Terra Sapiens: create “us” as superorganism.
• Earth, Incorporated: all of us shareholders
• 4GEO: Give every square meter its own unique
IPv6 address, then link to GIS software, GPS,
and allow posting messages.
• The World Water Web: put RF sensors almost
everywhere to signal Wet, Hot, etc. and get real
time measure in liters.
• The Great Replication: 3D copy of everything
• The Great Augmentation: sharing POV
• The Ultimate Market: anyone buy, sell, anything.

52. Image Credits:
1. Nicheworks
http://www.bell-labs.com/user/gwills/NICHEguide/niche.html
composited with
Cone Trees and Disk Trees
http://www.parc.xerox.com/istl/projects/uir/
2. Starlight
http://starlight.pnl.gov/
3. Web Stalker
http://www.backspace.org/iod/
composited with
Mapping the Web Infome
http://dma.sjsu.edu/jevbratt/lifelike/
4. Walrus Visualisation Tool
http://www.caida.org/tools/visualization/walrus/
5. Web Traffic Project
http://www.cdi.gsd.harvard.edu/research.cfm?id=15
6. Cobot
http://www.cc.gatech.edu/fac/Charles.Isbell/projects/cobot/map.html
7. Internert Industry Partnerships
http://www.orgnet.com/netindustry.html
8. Warriors of the Net
http://www.warriorsofthe.net/
9. Coast
http://www.fractalus.com/steve/stuff/ipmap/
10. Plankton
http://www.caida.org/tools/visualization/plankton/
11. Spamdemic
http://www.cluelessmailers.org/spamdemic/index.html
12. Skitter
http://www.caida.org/analysis/topology/as_core_network/

54. May 23 - 26, 2005
Hyatt Regency, Reston, VA
Organized by The IPv6
Association in collaboration
with IPv6 Summit, Inc.
For more information
visit www.usipv6.com
or contact Alex Lightman
alex@usipv6.com